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Australia March Westpac Leading Index, Westpac’s summary points:

The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.6% in March from 0.9% in February.

• Leading Index growth rate declines to 0.6%.
• Key components starting to capture tariff policy shock.
• Commodities, interest rate moves still the main positives.
• Cracks appearing around financial markets and confidence.

While the Leading Index continues to show an above-trend growth pulse, the latest softening marks an important shift. Recall that the headline measure is a six-month annualised growth rate. Hence, even sharp monthly developments take time to move momentum. The Index is only just starting to capture the effects from the trade policy disruptions that escalated sharply following US President Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcement on April 2. The situation is uncertain and there are other factors at play but some further softening in the growth pulse looks likely in the months ahead.

Bolding above is mine.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to meet South Korea’s finance minister Choi next week to discuss trade issues

South Korea’s finance ministry with the announcement.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ raised its year-end forecast for gold price to $3,600 per ounce

• and six-month forecast to $3,500
• expects silver’s rise to continue towards $34/oz

Meanwhile, gold has hit a record high above US$3260.50

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan data:

February Core Machinery Orders +1.5% y/y (expected -0.9%, prior +4.4%)

• +4.3% m/m (expected +1.2%, prior -3.5%

This is encouraging data. The caveat is, of course, that its for February, before the Trump tariffs hit the fan.

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The core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series

• its used as a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Greg had the data on Tuesday, US time:

• a sharp deterioration in business sentiment

The survey was conducted April 2 to 9, just after the destructive reciprocal announcement but prior to Trump’s 90 day pause.

It makes for ugly reading.

The outlook for the future is dire, bolding mine:

• Firms turned pessimistic about the Outlook with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest readingin the more than 20 year history of the survey
• Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey.
• The index for future
  general business conditions fell twenty points
  to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative
  forty-four points over the past three months.
• New orders and shipments are expected to
  fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital
  spending plans were flat. Input and selling
  price increases are expected to pick up, and
  supply availability is expected to worsen over
  the next six months.

***

While the current conditions graphs are not great, the forward-looking ones are vomitous. This is a snippet pic, link here for more.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. plans to use tariff negotiations to isolate China:

• U.S. officials plan to use negotiations with more than 70 nations to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their countries

more to come

Link here for more (gated)

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants trading partners to limit China’s involvement in their economies in exchange for concessions on reciprocal tariffs

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. plans to use tariff negotiations to isolate China:

• U.S. officials plan to use negotiations with more than 70 nations to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their countries

more to come

Link here for more (gated)

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants trading partners to limit China’s involvement in their economies in exchange for concessions on reciprocal tariffs

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Reuters Tankan

Japanese manufacturers reported a rebound in sentiment in April, according to the latest Reuters Tankan survey, but the outlook for the next quarter has turned gloomy amid rising concerns over U.S. tariffs. The manufacturers’ index rose to +9 from -1 in March, indicating more optimism than pessimism. However, sentiment is expected to weaken again by July, with the index projected to slip back to zero.

The shift in mood reflects growing caution as companies brace for the fallout from Trump’s sweeping tariffs, including a 25% duty on car and truck imports and a 24% tariff on Japanese goods—temporarily reduced to 10% for 90 days. Export-oriented sectors like autos and machinery voiced particular concern, citing a drop in orders and hesitation among clients to invest.

Uncertainty around U.S. trade policy was the dominant theme, though some firms also flagged weak Chinese demand as a headwind, along with low-priced Chinese goods reportedly undercutting the domestic market.

Sentiment among non-manufacturers remained stronger, with the index rising to +30 in April from +25 in March, though that too is expected to decline to +21 by July. Real estate and IT firms remained upbeat, but shipping companies warned of rising labour costs and declining volumes linked to U.S.-China trade tensions.

***

Reuters Tankan is a monthly survey that seeks to track the Bank of Japan’s tankan quarterly survey

• respondents spoke on the condition of anonymity
• Reuters Tankan indexes are calculated by subtracting the percentage of pessimistic respondents from optimistic ones. A positive reading means optimists outnumber pessimists.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Reuters Tankan

Japanese manufacturers reported a rebound in sentiment in April, according to the latest Reuters Tankan survey, but the outlook for the next quarter has turned gloomy amid rising concerns over U.S. tariffs. The manufacturers’ index rose to +9 from -1 in March, indicating more optimism than pessimism. However, sentiment is expected to weaken again by July, with the index projected to slip back to zero.

The shift in mood reflects growing caution as companies brace for the fallout from Trump’s sweeping tariffs, including a 25% duty on car and truck imports and a 24% tariff on Japanese goods—temporarily reduced to 10% for 90 days. Export-oriented sectors like autos and machinery voiced particular concern, citing a drop in orders and hesitation among clients to invest.

Uncertainty around U.S. trade policy was the dominant theme, though some firms also flagged weak Chinese demand as a headwind, along with low-priced Chinese goods reportedly undercutting the domestic market.

Sentiment among non-manufacturers remained stronger, with the index rising to +30 in April from +25 in March, though that too is expected to decline to +21 by July. Real estate and IT firms remained upbeat, but shipping companies warned of rising labour costs and declining volumes linked to U.S.-China trade tensions.

***

Reuters Tankan is a monthly survey that seeks to track the Bank of Japan’s tankan quarterly survey

• respondents spoke on the condition of anonymity
• Reuters Tankan indexes are calculated by subtracting the percentage of pessimistic respondents from optimistic ones. A positive reading means optimists outnumber pessimists.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

JP Morgan says it has turned bearish on base metal prices in the near term

• forecast 2q25 averages of $8,300/MT for copper and average price of $8,812/MT for 2025

Aluminium:

• 2q25 averages of $2,200/MT and an average price of $2,369/MT for 2025

Nickel:

• average $14,000/MT in 2q25, with an average price of $15,020/MT for 2025

Zinc:

• average $2,500/MT in 2q25 for zinc, with an average price of $2,646/MT for 2025

JPM cite weaker demand forecasts, particularly in Asia ex-China

• lower demand forecasts, driven by global trade disruptions, reduced demand from electric vehicles

• tariff-driven cuts to economic growth forecasts, increased probability of recession this year leads to steep cuts to metals demand forecasts

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump has launched a probe into the need for tariffs on critical minerals

China earlier:

• ICYMI – China halts rare earth exports after new controls, raising global supply concerns

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US government has indefinitely banned Nvidia from selling H20 chips to China:

• Nvidia expects US$5.5 billion charge related to this for this quarter

After hours trade in NVDA has the shares limit down

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.