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UK Lloyds Business Barometer for April 2025 comes in at a three month low of 39%

• prior 49%
• long-run average is 29%
• gauge of economic optimism fell by 13 points to
  28%
• 70% of businesses expect to raise prices in the coming 12
  months

Info comes via a Reuters report, which adds in on a survey the Confederation of British
Industry:

• private sector output
  declined in the three months to April
• is expected to fall
  again in the three months to July
• “Private sector activity remains subdued, with our surveys
  pointing to weaker economic momentum than implied by official
  data,”
• “Uncertainty has ramped up over the last few weeks,
  following the back-and-forth on tariffs levied by the US and,
  subsequently, big movements in financial markets.”

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

John Paulson is billionaire hedge fund manager who leads his own firm, Paulson & Co. He likes gold a lot higher:

• near $5,000 an ounce by 2028 … the “high $4,000 range”

Paulson says that estimate was put to him, adding that “It’s a well-informed prediction. I think that’s a reasonable number”.

Citing:

• “As central banks and people look to put their money in a more stable source… I think gold will increase its position in the world,”
• “When the war started, (Russia) kept their physical gold, that was safe, but all their cash – the paper reserves – were confiscated,” Paulson said.

  “So that caused other central banks to wake up and say … ‘What happens if there’s a conflict with the U.S.? Could the U.S. keep our treasuries, and all our savings would disappear?'”

• global trade uncertainty, fueled in part by Washington’s tariffs, as further underpinning gold.

  “The best place to go if your faith in the (U.S.) dollar diminishes is gold as a reserve currency,”

—

I compressed the price scale to give a pic of how gold has fareed (this is a weekly candle chart) and to put 5K in the picture:

What y’all think? Comments welcome!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

NQ, ES and the other indices all opened lower.

The above is a CFD reflecting ES. It had a decent rally on Tuesday, some give back to begin evening trade .

Opportunity for the BTD folks.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius in a note late last week, htat he is not confident forecasting a level for the dollar:

• “I often dodge questions about the dollar. A large body of academic literature and my own experience as an economic forecaster have taught me that predicting exchange rates is even harder than predicting growth, inflation, and interest rates.”

But …

• “I believe that the recent dollar depreciation of 5% on a broad trade-weighted basis has considerably further to go”

Warns that the dollar continuing to decline will make inflation pressure worse

• but will make US exports relatively cheaper

The U.S. economic slowdown is further compounding the dollar’s woes, and does not see much relative improvement saying that the its not likely that the US economy will outperform.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump congratulated PM Carney on his election win

• the two agreed on the importance of Canada & the US working together as independent, sovereign nations
• agreed to meet in person in the near future

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via twitter:

—

Expectations I had seen centred on:

• Headline crude +0.5mn barrels
• Distillates -1.7mn bbls
• Gasoline -1.2 mn

This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

• It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies
• The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

• Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies
• Whereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week’s levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.
• the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

SMCI – which has been criticized for their accounting practices in recent past – preannounced their earnings estimates, and it is not good:

• Revenues $4.5 – $4.6 billion versus previous estimate of $5.0 – $6.0 billion
• EPS $0.29 – $0.31 versus previous estimate $0.46 – $0.62.

According to the release, during Q3 some delayed customer platform decisions moved sales into Q4. In addition “gross margin for Q3 was 220 basis points lower than Q2 preliminary due to fire inventory reserves resulting from older generation products and expedite costs to enable time-to-market for new products”

Shares are trading down -17% to $29.91.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A slew of earnings have been released with mixed results. Starbucks was a disappointment. Snap is also lower in despite what seems to be a beat.

• Snap Inc (SNAP) Q1 2025: Adj. EBITDA 108.4M (BEAT; exp. 65.4M), Revenue 1.36B (MET; exp. 1.35B). The company omits Q2 guidance due to uncertainty. The stock is trading down -12.02% in after-hours trading

• PPG Industries (PPG) Q1 2025: EPS 1.72 (BEAT; exp. 1.61), Revenue 3.68B (BEAT; exp. 3.65B). The stock is trading up 3.0% in after-hours trading.

• Seagate Technology (STX) Q3 2025: EPS 1.90 (BEAT; exp. 1.73), Revenue 2.19B (BEAT; exp. 2.12B). The stock is trading up 6.29% in after-hours trading.

• Visa Inc (V) Q2 2025: EPS 2.76 (BEAT; exp. 2.68), Revenue 9.6B (BEAT; exp. 9.57B). The stock is trading up 0.76% in after-hours trading

• Starbucks Corp (SBUX) Q2 2025: EPS 0.41 (MISS; exp. 0.48), Revenue 8.8B (MISS; exp. 8.81B). The stock is trading down -1.25% in after-hours trading

• First Solar (FSLR) Q1 2025: EPS 1.95 (MISS; exp. 2.44), Revenue 845M (BEAT; exp. 835M). The stock is trading down 11.39% in after-hours trading.

• Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Q1 2025: EPS -0.54 (MISS; exp. -0.20), Revenue 2.79B (MISS; exp. 2.81B). The stock is trading up 2.18% in after-hours trading

• Booking Holdings (BKNG) Q1 2025: EPS 24.81 (BEAT; exp. 17.34), Revenue 4.76B (BEAT; exp. 4.59B), Adj. EBITDA 1.09B (BEAT; exp. 850M). The stock is trading down -3.29% in after-hours trading

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a busy session ahead for data.

China’s April PMIs are expected to fall back a little from March, both the official and the unofficial. Trump tariffs should continue to bit in the months ahead. I posted on some analyst takes on jobs and economic activity:

• Goldman Sachs says Trump tariffs could endanger 16 million export jobs in China
• Hidden damage: Trump tariffs threaten bigger blow to China’s economy, Nomura warns

Australian CPI data is due. The consensus has built for an Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut in May:

• “Lock it in: RBA to cut 25bps in May” – Westpac forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia

This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

The times in the left-most column are GMT.

The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• US March advance goods trade balance -161.99BB vs -147.85B prior
• US April consumer confidence 86.0 vs 87.5 expected
• JOLTS March job openings 7.192M vs 7.480M estimate
• US advanced wholesale inventories for March 0.5% versus 0.5% last month. Estimate 0.0%
• Lutnick: Tariff adjustments give automakers time to grow US plants
• Trump says he will focus on the economy
• Rubio: It’s now time for Russia and Ukraine to submit concrete proposals
• USTR: Europe is not engaging well on tariff talks
• Lutnick: I have a deal with a country, I’m just waiting for foreign parliament to approve
• The market is now pricing in a full 125 bps in Fed easing in the next year
• Final Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 estimate -2.7% vs -2.4% prior
• Dallas Fed April service sector outlook index -19.4 vs -11.3 prior
• China waives ethane tariffs, as rumored last week
• US February Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +4.5% y/y vs +4.7% expected
• Bessent: We want a combo of long-term tariff revenue and lower barriers
• Goldman Sachs: Revising our USD/CAD forecasts lower

Markets:

• WTI crude oil down $1.79 to $60.26
• US 10-year yields down 4.6 bps to 4.665%
• Gold down $18 to $3322
• S&P 500 up 0.6%
• USD leads, AUD lags

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P index rose for it 6th consecutive day. Yesterday the NASDAQ index snapped a five day went streak with a modest point. Over all the major indices were up in trading today. A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• Dow industrial average rose 300.03 points or 0.75% at 40527.62.
• S&P index up 32.08 points or 0.58% at 5560.83.
• NASDAQ index rose 95.18 points or 0.55% at 17461.32.

The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 10.96 points or 0.56% at 1976.51.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.