Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.88%, Shanghai Composite up 0.38%, Hang Seng up 1.14% ASX down 0.28%
• Commodities : Gold at $3342.35 (-0.19%), Silver at $36.38 (0.69%), Brent Oil at $66.28 (-0.29%), WTI Oil at $64.68 (-0.19%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.499, UK 10-year yield at 4.6410, Germany 10-year yield at 2.5610

News & Data:

• (CAD) Employment Change 8.8K  to -11.9K expected
• (CAD) Unemployment Rate 7.0%  to 7.0% expected
• (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change 139K  to 126K expected
• (USD) Unemployment Rate 4.2%  to 4.2% expected

Markets Update:

Asian markets climbed on Monday as investors awaited trade talks between the U.S. and China and reacted to the latest economic data from Beijing. Easing trade tensions boosted sentiment, with China reportedly granting temporary licenses for rare earth exports and Boeing resuming commercial jet deliveries to the country. Despite this, China’s export growth in May fell short of expectations, particularly due to a sharp drop in shipments to the U.S.

Inflation data showed China’s consumer prices dropped 0.1% year-on-year in May, a smaller decline than the 0.2% forecast, while the producer price index fell 3.3%, slightly more than expected. These figures highlighted continued deflationary pressure in the world’s second-largest economy. Meanwhile, revised estimates for Japan’s GDP showed a smaller contraction of 0.2% annualized in the January-March quarter, improving from an earlier reading of 0.7%.

In equities, China’s CSI 300 gained 0.18%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 1.01%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 2.3%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.99%, while the Topix gained 0.58%. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 1.51%, and the Kosdaq rose 1.03%. India’s Nifty 50 added 0.46%, and the BSE Sensex was up 0.4%. Australian markets remained closed for a public holiday.

U.S. equity futures slipped during Asian trading hours, following a strong performance on Wall Street last Friday. The Dow Jones rose 443.13 points (1.05%) to 42,762.87, while the S&P 500 closed above 6,000 for the first time since February at 6,000.36. The Nasdaq Composite surged 1.20% to finish at 19,529.95, fueled by non-farm payroll data showing 139,000 jobs added in May—exceeding forecasts, though slightly lower than April’s revised 147,000.

Upcoming Events: 

• 02:00 PM GMT – USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m

The post Monday 9th June 2025: Asian Markets Rise on Trade Hopes and China Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 9 June 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

May’s inflation reports showed both consumer and producer prices both signalling deflation in China, with CPI marking its fourth consecutive month of lower prices while PPI registered its 32nd consecutive month of producer deflation. CPI declined at an annual rate of 0.1% while PPI fell more than 3.3%, highlighting its steepest decline since July 2023. With no signs of higher price increases in sight, it points to weaker demand not only at a producer level but also at the consumer level for the world’s largest second economy. Commodity prices such as crude oil and iron ore could face near-term headwinds as the brand-new trading week gets underway.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

With Swiss, German and French banks closed in observance of Whit Monday, the franc and Euro could both face lower liquidity and irregular volatility today. With no other major news releases scheduled for Monday, overall market sentiment is likely to take cue from the upcoming trade talks between the U.S. and China in London later in the day will dictate direction for the DXY. Senior U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, are set to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss tariff rollbacks, export controls, and broader bilateral trade concerns.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

Despite a relatively robust employment report by the BLS last Friday, demand for the greenback waned as markets resumed trading on Monday. After hitting an overnight high of 99.35 on Friday, the DXY slipped under 99 as Asian markets came online. With no major catalysts for the dollar, the upcoming trade talks between the U.S. and China in London later in the day will dictate direction for the DXY. Senior U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, are set to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss tariff rollbacks, export controls, and broader bilateral trade concerns.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 7 May 2025.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run, but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased further.
• The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.
• Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilised at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 17 to 18 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

After reaching Thursday’s high of $3,403.53/oz, spot prices for gold retreated to close at $3,312.12/oz on Friday. The downward momentum resumed on Monday with this precious metal falling toward the $3,300 handle at the beginning of the Asia session. With no major catalysts for the dollar and gold, the upcoming trade talks between the U.S. and China in London later in the day will dictate direction for gold. Senior U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, are set to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss tariff rollbacks, export controls, and broader bilateral trade concerns.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

King’s Birthday (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Most Australian banks will be closed in observance of the King’s Birthday but the Australian Stock Exchange will remain open. Despite stronger-than-anticipated U.S. NFPs last Friday, the Aussie rose strongly in early Asian trade on Monday as this currency pair climbed above the threshold of 0.6500.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced its cash rate by 25 basis points (bps), bringing it down to 3.85% on 20 May, following a pause on 1 April.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Data on inflation for the March quarter provided further evidence that inflation continues to ease. At 2.9%, annual trimmed mean inflation was below 3% for the first time since 2021 and headline inflation, at 2.4%, remained within the target band of 2 to 3%.
• While recent tariff announcements have resulted in a rebound in financial market prices, there is still considerable uncertainty about the final scope of the tariffs and policy responses in other countries, contributing to a weaker outlook for growth, employment and inflation in Australia.
• Private domestic demand appears to have been recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggests that labour market conditions remain tight. Employment is continuing to grow, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers.
• Looking through quarterly volatility, wage growth has softened over the past year or so but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation stemming from both domestic and international developments. While the central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as real incomes rise, recent data suggest that the pick-up will be a little slower than was expected three months ago.
• There is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is even slower than this, resulting in continued subdued growth in aggregate demand and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• With inflation expected to remain around target, the Board therefore judged that an easing in monetary policy at this meeting was appropriate, assessing that this move would make monetary policy somewhat less restrictive.
• The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 8 July 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

King’s Birthday (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from NZD today?

New Zealand’s banks and stock exchange will be closed in observance of the King’s Birthday on Monday. After gapping lower at open at 0.6003, the Kiwi rebounded and rallied strongly toward the 0.6050. With no major domestic catalysts, the broad weakness in the greenback will keep this currency pair elevated.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.25% on 28 May, marking the sixth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee stated that annual consumer price index inflation increased to 2.5% in the first quarter of 2025 while inflation expectations across firms and households have also risen.
• However, core inflation is declining and there is spare productive capacity in the economy; these conditions are consistent with inflation returning to the mid-point of the 1 to 3% target band over the medium term.
• The New Zealand economy is recovering after a period of contraction as high commodity prices and lower interest rates are supporting overall economic activity but recent developments in the international economy are expected to reduce global economic growth.
• Both tariffs and increased policy uncertainty overseas are expected to moderate New Zealand’s economic recovery and reduce medium-term inflation pressures. However, there remains considerable uncertainty around these judgements.
• Labour market conditions remain weak while the unemployment rate is expected to peak this quarter at 5.2%.
• Inflation is within the target band, and the Committee is well placed to respond to domestic and international developments to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 9 July 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Higher demand for the U.S. dollar combined with a stronger-than-expected NFPs toward the end of last week lifted USD/JPY as it rallied nearly 1.7% before closing at 144.85. However, the dollar came under pressure once more as markets resumed trading on Monday with this currency pair dipping under 144.50.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 1 May, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economic growth is likely to moderate, as trade and other policies in each jurisdiction lead to a slowdown in overseas economies and to a decline in domestic corporate profits and other factors, although factors such as accommodative financial conditions are expected to provide support. Thereafter, Japan’s economic growth rate is likely to rise, with overseas economies returning to a moderate growth path.
• The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) is likely to be in the range of 2.0-2.5% for fiscal 2025, in the range of 1.5-2.0% for fiscal 2026, and at around 2% for fiscal 2027. The effects of the past rise in import prices and of the recent rise in food prices such as rice prices – these factors have pushed up the inflation rate so far – are expected to wane.
• Meanwhile, underlying CPI inflation is likely to be sluggish, mainly due to the deceleration in the economy. Thereafter, however, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually.
• Regarding the employment and income situation, despite the deceleration in the economy, labour market conditions are likely to remain tight, as it will become more difficult for labour supply of women and seniors to increase.
• Comparing the projections through fiscal 2026 with those presented in the previous Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), the projected real GDP growth rate for fiscal 2024 is somewhat higher, but the projected growth rates for fiscal 2025 and 2026 are lower due to the effects of trade and other policies in each jurisdiction.
• There are various risks to the outlook. In particular, it is extremely uncertain how trade and other policies in each jurisdiction will evolve and how overseas economic activity and prices will react to them. It is therefore necessary to pay due attention to the impact of these developments on financial and foreign exchange markets and on Japan’s economic activity and prices.
• With regard to the risk balance, risks to economic activity are skewed to the downside for fiscal 2025 and 2026. Risks to prices are also skewed to the downside for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 17 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Whit Monday (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from EUR today?

With German and French banks closed in observance of Whit Monday, the Euro could face lower liquidity and irregular volatility today. However, persistent weakness in the greenback keeps this currency pair elevated, with the upward trend likely to extend further on Monday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 5 June to mark the seventh successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.15%, 2.40% and 2.00% respectively.
• Inflation is currently at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target. In the baseline of the new Eurosystem staff projections, headline inflation is set to average 2.0% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. The downward revisions compared with the March projections, by 0.3 percentage points for both 2025 and 2026, mainly reflect lower assumptions for energy prices and a stronger euro. Staff expect inflation excluding energy and food to average 2.4% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 and 2027, broadly unchanged since March.
• Staff see real GDP growth averaging 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027. The unrevised growth projection for 2025 reflects a stronger-than-expected first quarter combined with weaker prospects for the remainder of the year. While the uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to weigh on business investment and exports, especially in the short term, rising government investment in defence and infrastructure will increasingly support growth over the medium term.
• Higher real incomes and a robust labour market will allow households to spend more. Together with more favourable financing conditions, this should make the economy more resilient to global shocks. Wage growth is still elevated but continues to moderate visibly, and profits are partially buffering its impact on inflation.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• The Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, and it is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The next meeting is on 24 July 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

Whit Monday (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from CHF today?

The franc could face lower liquidity and irregular volatility as Swiss banks will be closed in observance of Whit Monday. High demand for safe-haven assets since mid-May drove USD/CHF under 0.8200 last week – this currency pair was floating around this region as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Cable climbed above the threshold of 1.3600 last Thursday before settling around 1.3530 by the end of Friday. This currency pair gained steadily as markets re-opened, rising above 1.3550 as the U.S. dollar continued to remain heavily out of favour.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 5 to 4 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps), bringing it down to 4.25% on 8 May 2025.
• Two members preferred a larger cut of 50 bps, while two opted to hold rates steady at 4.5%.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Progress on disinflation in domestic price and wage pressures is generally continuing. Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 2.6% in March from 2.8% in February, close to expectations in the February Report.
• Although indicators of pay growth remain elevated, a significant slowing is still expected over the rest of the year.
• Wholesale energy prices have fallen back since the February Report. Previous increases in energy prices are still likely to drive up CPI inflation from April onwards, to 3.5% for 2025 Q3, but is expected to fall back thereafter.
• Underlying UK GDP growth is judged to have slowed since the middle of 2024 and has been much less volatile than growth in headline GDP – growth was expected to have been around zero in 2025 Q1, well below Bank staff’s projection for headline growth of 0.6%.
• Underlying employment growth has also softened recently and the labour market has continued to loosen. The ratio of vacancies to unemployment has fallen further and is now judged to be below its equilibrium level – the impact of higher Employers’ National Insurance Contributions (NICs) on employment appears to have been fairly small to date.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

After adding just 7,400 jobs in April, Canada’s labour market notched its second successive month of modest gains with just 8,800 workers added to the economy in May. Since January, job growth has stalled after strong gains late last year while the unemployment rate jumped from 6.6% to 7% in the latest report on Friday. Despite the labour market showing real signs of a slowdown, USD/CAD continues to slide lower due to persistent weakness in the greenback. This currency pair drifted toward 1.3650 at the beginning of Monday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% on 4th June – marking the second consecutive meeting where rates were kept on hold.
• The Governing Council noted that the ongoing increase and decrease of various U.S. tariffs, coupled with highly uncertain outcomes of bilateral trade negotiations and tariff rates remaining well above their levels at the beginning of 2025, placed downside risks on growth and lifted inflation expectations, warranting caution regarding the continuation of monetary easing.
• The higher uncertainty stemmed from the absence of a clear tariff path by the U.S. and persistent threats of new trade actions, which prompted the BoC Governing Council to highlight risks such as the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports.
• Canada’s economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%, slightly stronger than the original forecast, while the composition of GDP growth was largely as expected. Consumption slowed from its very strong fourth-quarter pace, but continued to grow despite a large drop in consumer confidence.
• Housing activity was down, driven by a sharp contraction in resales, while government spending also declined. The economy is expected to be considerably weaker in the second quarter, with the strength in exports and inventories reversing and final domestic demand remaining subdued.
• The labour market has weakened, particularly in trade-intensive sectors, and unemployment has risen to 6.9% while CPI inflation eased to 1.7% in April, as the elimination of the federal consumer carbon tax reduced inflation by 0.6%.
• The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation, as well as other measures of underlying inflation, moved up, while recent surveys indicate that households continue to expect that tariffs will raise prices and many businesses say they intend to pass on the costs of higher tariffs.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• The Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 30 July 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

China CPI and PPI (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After rallying over 6% last week, WTI crude oil futures held steady in Asian trading on Monday with prices hovering around $64.50 per barrel as investors remained cautious ahead of key U.S.-China trade talks in London later in the day. Senior U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, are set to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in London to discuss tariff rollbacks, export controls, and broader bilateral trade concerns. Moving over to China, May’s inflation reports showed both consumer and producer prices both signalling deflation, with CPI marking its fourth consecutive month of lower prices while PPI registered its 32nd consecutive month of producer deflation. CPI declined at an annual rate of 0.1% while PPI fell more than 3.3%, highlighting its steepest decline since July 2023. With no signs of higher price increases in sight, it points to weaker demand not only at a producer level but also at the consumer level for the world’s largest second economy. Commodity prices such as crude oil and iron ore could face near-term headwinds as the brand-new trading week gets underway.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 9 June 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

That’s a bold call with markets only pricing in ~46 bps of rate cuts by year-end with no rate cuts expected through the summer at least at this stage. Their latest view above is predicated on the outlook following the US jobs report on Friday. Subsequently, Citigroup expects the Fed to cut further in January and March 2026 – 25 bps each as well.

At the same time, the firm has also raised their S&P 500 year-end price target to 6,300 (from 5,800 previously).

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The diffusion index climbed slightly in May, owing a better trend among households with an increase in retail-related activity. The trend for businesses declined on the month amid easing conditions in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, there were also better prospects on the employment front. The outlook index was seen at 44.8, up from 42.7 in April.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Japan has experienced low interest rates for a very long period
• So, some quarters of the public don’t know what it is like for interest rates to rise
• When interest rates rise, government’s debt-financing costs will increase; weigh on spending
• Government must ensure public, market trust in Japan’s finances is maintained

It’s more so a case over the past year I would say. Right now, the BOJ is finding it tough to push forward with the next rate hike. Markets are also sensing that with only ~18 bps priced in by year-end for now. No rate hikes are expected through the summer at the very least.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US Markets Push Higher After Non-Farms – Nasdaq up 1.2%

US stock markets drove higher in trading on Friday after the key Non-Farms Payroll data came in stronger than expected. The Dow added 1.05% on the day, the S&P 1.03%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.20%. The dollar also pushed higher against the majors, the DXY up 0.50% to 99.19, while Treasury yields pulled back — the 2-year down 2.7 basis points to 4.010% and the 10-year down 0.8 of a basis point to 4.498%. Oil prices leapt higher on the back of the strong data and positive sentiment driven by the resumption of trade talks between the US and China, Brent up 1.73% to $66.47, and WTI up 1.91% to $64.58 a barrel. Gold fell in line with the dollar, losing 1.32% to finish at $3,309.67 an ounce.

Jobs Data Keeps Fed on Track

Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll number looks to have locked in another ‘hold’ for the Federal Reserve Bank at its next meeting, due to finish on June 18. The market wasn’t expecting them to cut then, but some doves were hoping that a weaker print on Friday could have pushed expectations up for a cut. However, the stronger-than-expected number has put paid to any of those ideas, with the market now pricing in a 99% chance of a hold. Expectations have moved further down the curve as well, with the July meeting now being priced in with just a 14% chance for a cut, down from nearly 50% a month ago, while the September meeting is now priced in with a 55% chance. The dollar rallied well on the back of the news, and some bulls are hoping that if we start to see positive moves on the trade front that could accompany the stronger jobs numbers, then the greenback will move back to higher levels against the majors.

Quiet Start to the Trading Week

The macroeconomic calendar is a lot quieter this week, and traders are expecting to see rangebound conditions in the sessions ahead today. There are several bank holidays today which could affect liquidity levels, with Australia, Switzerland, France, and Germany all having long weekends. The main focus for the Asian session will be Chinese inflation data that comes out early in the day. Both CPI and PPI numbers are due, and any deviation from the expected -0.2% and -3.1% prints will see volatility in the CNY. There is little on the calendar in the latter two sessions today to move markets; however, traders will be keeping a close eye on newswires for any updates on trade talks across all jurisdictions.

The post General Market Analysis – 09/06/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The report cites a letter by the American Chamber of Commerce in Hanoi, speaking on behalf of Vietnamese subsidiaries of big investors such as Apple, in saying that:

“Vietnam has emerged as a valued partner of the US in the context of diversifying supply chains. We urge the US government to consider this deficit trend as evidence of President Trump’s success during his first term in diversifying supply chains in the Indo-Pacific region. We urge the US to avoid retaliatory and sectoral tariff measures against the logical outcome of its own policy goals.”

The full report by the FT can be found here (might be gated).

The idea here is that US firms themselves are looking for a proxy to bypass the additional cost from tariffs amid Trump’s latest trade policy implementation. It’s not just Chinese firms that are into origin washing clearly. The whole point is to opt for the route with the cheapest option and Vietnam is a hot spot proxy amid the ongoing US-China trade war.

We’ll have to see now what happens after the 90-day pause runs its course next month. Vietnam was initially slapped with 46% tariffs, which will be a serious blow for US firms hoping to take advantage of the origin washing of Chinese goods. Given the request, I would also say it points to the notion that businesses are not too confident of any US-China trade deal.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

There will be bank holidays in the likes of Germany, France, and Switzerland in observance of Whit Monday. However, the Xetra and Euronext will all still be open for trading. So, the action doesn’t stop as we get into the second week of June.

The dollar is a touch weaker with risk sentiment looking more tepid for now. But all eyes today will be on US-China trade talks in London. That will be the key risk event to watch out for to start the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

There will be bank holidays in the likes of Germany, France, and Switzerland in observance of Whit Monday. However, the Xetra and Euronext will all still be open for trading. So, the action doesn’t stop as we get into the second week of June.

The dollar is a touch weaker with risk sentiment looking more tepid for now. But all eyes today will be on US-China trade talks in London. That will be the key risk event to watch out for to start the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level, falling toward the 1st support. Additionally, the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

Pivot: 100.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 98.32

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns closely with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 101.78
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.  Additionally, the price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

Pivot: 1.1079

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

 1st support: 1.0752
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1512

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 161.84

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 158.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 166.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP: 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level, falling toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.8390

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 0.8332
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8412
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.  Additionally, the price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

Pivot: 1.3411

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1.3100
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3714
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

The price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level, falling toward the 1st support. 

Pivot: 196.03

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 192.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 199.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 0.8197

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 0.8042
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8448
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.  

Pivot: 142.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 139.58
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 148.45
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 78.68% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance, staging a minor rebound. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the downward momentum.

Pivot: 1.3595

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 1.3434
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns closely with a 78.6 Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3982
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising toward the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the upward momentum.

Pivot: 0.6545

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 61.8% retracement and the 127.2% extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6353

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns closely with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6680
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise toward the 1st resistance. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the upward momentum.

Pivot: 0.6000
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.5849

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6124

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising toward the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the upward momentum.

Pivot: 43,339.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 41,374.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 45,042.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising toward the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the upward momentum.

Pivot: 24,749.87
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 23,422.86

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 26,365.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising toward the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the upward momentum.

Pivot: 6,127.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 5,796.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,280.47

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the upward momentum.

Pivot: 101,052.33

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 94,702.53
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 110,959.87
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the upward momentum.

Pivot: 2,407.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 2,084.12
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,811.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns closely with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the downward momentum.

Pivot: 66.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 60.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 71.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as a -swing-high resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 3132.12

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 38.2% and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 2954.94
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,430.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 9th June 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 9 June 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Last Friday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report showed non-farm payrolls (NFPs) increasing by 139,000 in May, slightly above forecasts of 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2% for the third successive month. Largest job gains were observed in health care, leisure and hospitality, food services and drinking places, and social assistance, while the federal government continued to shed jobs. In addition, April’s figures were also revised noticeably lower, falling from 177,000 to 147,000. Nevertheless, it was a relatively robust set of employment figures which triggered renewed demand for greenback, as the dollar index (DXY) rallied as much as 0.7% before settling at 99.20, gaining 0.5%. Market sentiment was buoyed as well with safe-haven assets such as gold retreating. Spot prices reversed off Thursday’s high to pull back towards the $3,300 handle.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

May’s inflation reports showed both consumer and producer prices both signalling deflation in China, with CPI marking its fourth consecutive month of lower prices while PPI registered its 32nd consecutive month of producer deflation. CPI declined at an annual rate of 0.1% while PPI fell more than 3.3%, highlighting its steepest decline since July 2023. With no signs of higher price increases in sight, it points to weaker demand not only at a producer level but also at the consumer level for the world’s largest second economy. Commodity prices such as crude oil and iron ore could face near-term headwinds as the brand-new trading week gets underway.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

Despite a relatively robust employment report by the BLS last Friday, demand for the greenback waned as markets resumed trading on Monday. After hitting an overnight high of 99.35 on Friday, the DXY slipped under 99 as Asian markets came online. With no major catalysts for the dollar, the upcoming trade talks between the U.S. and China in London later in the day will dictate direction for the DXY. Senior U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, are set to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss tariff rollbacks, export controls, and broader bilateral trade concerns.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 7 May 2025.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run, but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased further.
• The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.
• Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilised at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 17 to 18 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

After reaching Thursday’s high of $3,403.53/oz, spot prices for gold retreated to close at $3,312.12/oz on Friday. The downward momentum resumed on Monday with this precious metal falling toward the $3,300 handle at the beginning of the Asia session. With no major catalysts for the dollar and gold, the upcoming trade talks between the U.S. and China in London later in the day will dictate direction for gold. Senior U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, are set to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss tariff rollbacks, export controls, and broader bilateral trade concerns.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

King’s Birthday (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Most Australian banks will be closed in observance of the King’s Birthday but the Australian Stock Exchange will remain open. Despite stronger-than-anticipated U.S. NFPs last Friday, the Aussie rose strongly in early Asian trade on Monday as this currency pair climbed above the threshold of 0.6500.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced its cash rate by 25 basis points (bps), bringing it down to 3.85% on 20 May, following a pause on 1 April.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Data on inflation for the March quarter provided further evidence that inflation continues to ease. At 2.9%, annual trimmed mean inflation was below 3% for the first time since 2021 and headline inflation, at 2.4%, remained within the target band of 2 to 3%.
• While recent tariff announcements have resulted in a rebound in financial market prices, there is still considerable uncertainty about the final scope of the tariffs and policy responses in other countries, contributing to a weaker outlook for growth, employment and inflation in Australia.
• Private domestic demand appears to have been recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggests that labour market conditions remain tight. Employment is continuing to grow, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers.
• Looking through quarterly volatility, wage growth has softened over the past year or so but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation stemming from both domestic and international developments. While the central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as real incomes rise, recent data suggest that the pick-up will be a little slower than was expected three months ago.
• There is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is even slower than this, resulting in continued subdued growth in aggregate demand and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• With inflation expected to remain around target, the Board therefore judged that an easing in monetary policy at this meeting was appropriate, assessing that this move would make monetary policy somewhat less restrictive.
• The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 8 July 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

King’s Birthday (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from NZD today?

New Zealand’s banks and stock exchange will be closed in observance of the King’s Birthday on Monday. After gapping lower at open at 0.6003, the Kiwi rebounded and rallied strongly toward the 0.6050. With no major domestic catalysts, the broad weakness in the greenback will keep this currency pair elevated.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.25% on 28 May, marking the sixth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee stated that annual consumer price index inflation increased to 2.5% in the first quarter of 2025 while inflation expectations across firms and households have also risen.
• However, core inflation is declining and there is spare productive capacity in the economy; these conditions are consistent with inflation returning to the mid-point of the 1 to 3% target band over the medium term.
• The New Zealand economy is recovering after a period of contraction as high commodity prices and lower interest rates are supporting overall economic activity but recent developments in the international economy are expected to reduce global economic growth.
• Both tariffs and increased policy uncertainty overseas are expected to moderate New Zealand’s economic recovery and reduce medium-term inflation pressures. However, there remains considerable uncertainty around these judgements.
• Labour market conditions remain weak while the unemployment rate is expected to peak this quarter at 5.2%.
• Inflation is within the target band, and the Committee is well placed to respond to domestic and international developments to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 9 July 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Higher demand for the U.S. dollar combined with a stronger-than-expected NFPs toward the end of last week lifted USD/JPY as it rallied nearly 1.7% before closing at 144.85. However, the dollar came under pressure once more as markets resumed trading on Monday with this currency pair dipping under 144.50.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 1 May, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economic growth is likely to moderate, as trade and other policies in each jurisdiction lead to a slowdown in overseas economies and to a decline in domestic corporate profits and other factors, although factors such as accommodative financial conditions are expected to provide support. Thereafter, Japan’s economic growth rate is likely to rise, with overseas economies returning to a moderate growth path.
• The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) is likely to be in the range of 2.0-2.5% for fiscal 2025, in the range of 1.5-2.0% for fiscal 2026, and at around 2% for fiscal 2027. The effects of the past rise in import prices and of the recent rise in food prices such as rice prices – these factors have pushed up the inflation rate so far – are expected to wane.
• Meanwhile, underlying CPI inflation is likely to be sluggish, mainly due to the deceleration in the economy. Thereafter, however, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually.
• Regarding the employment and income situation, despite the deceleration in the economy, labour market conditions are likely to remain tight, as it will become more difficult for labour supply of women and seniors to increase.
• Comparing the projections through fiscal 2026 with those presented in the previous Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), the projected real GDP growth rate for fiscal 2024 is somewhat higher, but the projected growth rates for fiscal 2025 and 2026 are lower due to the effects of trade and other policies in each jurisdiction.
• There are various risks to the outlook. In particular, it is extremely uncertain how trade and other policies in each jurisdiction will evolve and how overseas economic activity and prices will react to them. It is therefore necessary to pay due attention to the impact of these developments on financial and foreign exchange markets and on Japan’s economic activity and prices.
• With regard to the risk balance, risks to economic activity are skewed to the downside for fiscal 2025 and 2026. Risks to prices are also skewed to the downside for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 17 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Whit Monday (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from EUR today?

With German and French banks closed in observance of Whit Monday, the Euro could face lower liquidity and irregular volatility today. However, persistent weakness in the greenback keeps this currency pair elevated, with the upward trend likely to extend further on Monday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 5 June to mark the seventh successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.15%, 2.40% and 2.00% respectively.
• Inflation is currently at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target. In the baseline of the new Eurosystem staff projections, headline inflation is set to average 2.0% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. The downward revisions compared with the March projections, by 0.3 percentage points for both 2025 and 2026, mainly reflect lower assumptions for energy prices and a stronger euro. Staff expect inflation excluding energy and food to average 2.4% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 and 2027, broadly unchanged since March.
• Staff see real GDP growth averaging 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027. The unrevised growth projection for 2025 reflects a stronger-than-expected first quarter combined with weaker prospects for the remainder of the year. While the uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to weigh on business investment and exports, especially in the short term, rising government investment in defence and infrastructure will increasingly support growth over the medium term.
• Higher real incomes and a robust labour market will allow households to spend more. Together with more favourable financing conditions, this should make the economy more resilient to global shocks. Wage growth is still elevated but continues to moderate visibly, and profits are partially buffering its impact on inflation.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• The Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, and it is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The next meeting is on 24 July 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

Whit Monday (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from CHF today?

The franc could face lower liquidity and irregular volatility as Swiss banks will be closed in observance of Whit Monday. High demand for safe-haven assets since mid-May drove USD/CHF under 0.8200 last week – this currency pair was floating around this region as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Cable climbed above the threshold of 1.3600 last Thursday before settling around 1.3530 by the end of Friday. This currency pair gained steadily as markets re-opened, rising above 1.3550 as the U.S. dollar continued to remain heavily out of favour.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 5 to 4 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps), bringing it down to 4.25% on 8 May 2025.
• Two members preferred a larger cut of 50 bps, while two opted to hold rates steady at 4.5%.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Progress on disinflation in domestic price and wage pressures is generally continuing. Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 2.6% in March from 2.8% in February, close to expectations in the February Report.
• Although indicators of pay growth remain elevated, a significant slowing is still expected over the rest of the year.
• Wholesale energy prices have fallen back since the February Report. Previous increases in energy prices are still likely to drive up CPI inflation from April onwards, to 3.5% for 2025 Q3, but is expected to fall back thereafter.
• Underlying UK GDP growth is judged to have slowed since the middle of 2024 and has been much less volatile than growth in headline GDP – growth was expected to have been around zero in 2025 Q1, well below Bank staff’s projection for headline growth of 0.6%.
• Underlying employment growth has also softened recently and the labour market has continued to loosen. The ratio of vacancies to unemployment has fallen further and is now judged to be below its equilibrium level – the impact of higher Employers’ National Insurance Contributions (NICs) on employment appears to have been fairly small to date.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

After adding just 7,400 jobs in April, Canada’s labour market notched its second successive month of modest gains with just 8,800 workers added to the economy in May. Since January, job growth has stalled after strong gains late last year while the unemployment rate jumped from 6.6% to 7% in the latest report on Friday. Despite the labour market showing real signs of a slowdown, USD/CAD continues to slide lower due to persistent weakness in the greenback. This currency pair drifted toward 1.3650 at the beginning of Monday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% on 4th June – marking the second consecutive meeting where rates were kept on hold.
• The Governing Council noted that the ongoing increase and decrease of various U.S. tariffs, coupled with highly uncertain outcomes of bilateral trade negotiations and tariff rates remaining well above their levels at the beginning of 2025, placed downside risks on growth and lifted inflation expectations, warranting caution regarding the continuation of monetary easing.
• The higher uncertainty stemmed from the absence of a clear tariff path by the U.S. and persistent threats of new trade actions, which prompted the BoC Governing Council to highlight risks such as the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports.
• Canada’s economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%, slightly stronger than the original forecast, while the composition of GDP growth was largely as expected. Consumption slowed from its very strong fourth-quarter pace, but continued to grow despite a large drop in consumer confidence.
• Housing activity was down, driven by a sharp contraction in resales, while government spending also declined. The economy is expected to be considerably weaker in the second quarter, with the strength in exports and inventories reversing and final domestic demand remaining subdued.
• The labour market has weakened, particularly in trade-intensive sectors, and unemployment has risen to 6.9% while CPI inflation eased to 1.7% in April, as the elimination of the federal consumer carbon tax reduced inflation by 0.6%.
• The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation, as well as other measures of underlying inflation, moved up, while recent surveys indicate that households continue to expect that tariffs will raise prices and many businesses say they intend to pass on the costs of higher tariffs.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• The Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 30 July 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

China CPI and PPI (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After rallying over 6% last week, WTI crude oil futures held steady in Asian trading on Monday with prices hovering around $64.50 per barrel as investors remained cautious ahead of key U.S.-China trade talks in London later in the day. Senior U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, are set to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in London to discuss tariff rollbacks, export controls, and broader bilateral trade concerns. Moving over to China, May’s inflation reports showed both consumer and producer prices both signalling deflation, with CPI marking its fourth consecutive month of lower prices while PPI registered its 32nd consecutive month of producer deflation. CPI declined at an annual rate of 0.1% while PPI fell more than 3.3%, highlighting its steepest decline since July 2023. With no signs of higher price increases in sight, it points to weaker demand not only at a producer level but also at the consumer level for the world’s largest second economy. Commodity prices such as crude oil and iron ore could face near-term headwinds as the brand-new trading week gets underway.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 9 June 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• China May CPI -0.1% y/y vs -0.2% expected
• China May trade balance $103.2B vs 101.3B expected
• Japan Q1 GDP revised -0.2% vs -0.7% expected
• Japan April current account +2258.0B vs 2563.9B expected
• New Zealand Q1 manufacturing sales +2.4% vs +1.1% prior
• ECB’s Nagel: I believe that we can now take the time to look at the situation
• BOE’s Greene: The disinflationary process is still ongoing

Markets:

• Gold flat at $3309
• US 10-yaer yields down 1.4 bps to 4.49%
• WTI crude oil down 8 cents to $64.49
• JPY leads, USD lags

Australia was on holiday to start the week and so are large parts of Europe. That didn’t do much to dampen volatility early in the week as a full slate of Asian data kept things interesting. China remained in deflation with a sub-zero CPI and a particularly soft PPI number pointing to more price declines ahead.

Of course, trade continues to dominate and China trade balance numbers showed a sharp drop in US-China trade. Despite that, China posted a huge trade surplus as it continues to dominate global manufacturing. There is optimism coming into the week about a US-China trade truce along with other US deals before the G7 next week. That led to strong gains for Chinese and Japanese stock markets.

The US dollar was soft across the board and I’m inclined to think that was mostly a retracement from Friday’s large post-NFP gains, but I could be convinced the riots in L.A. played at least a part. USD/JPY didn’t fall on the Japanese GDP report but that number has hawkish implications for the BOJ.

Overall it was a fairly lively start to the week and I’m sure that will continue.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.