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U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the European Union to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese and Indian goods, according to U.S. and EU officials. The move, conveyed in a call with EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan, is part of a U.S. push to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin by targeting two of Moscow’s biggest oil buyers.

Earlier headline:

• Trump tells the European Union to slam China & India with 100% tariffs, to pressure Putin

Via Reuters:

Washington indicated it would impose matching tariffs if Brussels joined the effort, officials said. The request marks a potential shift in EU strategy, which has leaned on sanctions rather than tariffs to squeeze Russia.

Trump has long criticised Beijing and New Delhi for propping up Russia’s economy through crude purchases. He raised tariffs on India earlier this year but has so far stopped short of the most punitive measures. While warning Europe to reduce its own exposure to Russian energy, Trump also hinted at warmer U.S.-India trade ties, posting on social media that he was working with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to address barriers.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The BLS preliminary estimate of nonfarm payrolls benchmark revision would:

• Decrease March 2025 level of employment by -911K or -0.6%.

The consensus was for a decline of -682K. Forecast range from -200K to -900K

The revision is the largest on record.

In 2024 it showed a revision of -548K

Looking at the different sectors, the biggest decline was in trade, transportation, and utilities (- 226K). There were no sectors that showed a positive revision. Professional business services saw a downward revision of – 158K and leisure and hospitality a decline of – 176K.

• Total nonfarm: -911K (-0.6%)

• Total private: -880K (-0.7%)

  • Mining and logging: -4K (-0.7%)

  • Construction: -29K (-0.4%)

  • Manufacturing: -95K (-0.8%)

  • Trade, transportation, and utilities: -226K (-0.8%)

    • Wholesale trade: -110.3K (-1.2%)

    • Retail trade: -126.2K (-0.8%)

    • Transportation and warehousing: +6.6K (+0.1%)

    • Utilities: +3.7K (+0.6%)

  • Information: -67K (-2.3%)

  • Financial activities: -39K (-0.4%)

  • Professional and business services: -158K (-0.7%)

  • Private education and health services: -35K (-0.1%)

  • Leisure and hospitality: -176K (-1.1%)

  • Other services: -51K (-0.9%)

• Government: -31K (-0.1%)

The data shows a weaker employment picture than previously reported, and certainly would motivate the Fed to cut. It also highlights the data problem that has started to creep into the economic releases.

US yields remain higher, with the two-year up 2.2 basis points at 3.517%. The 10-year yield is also up 2.2 basis points at 4.068%.

US stocks are mixed with the Dow industrial average down -0.3%. The S&P is up 0.7% and the NASDAQ index is up 0.10%. Recall the NASDAQ index closed at a record level yesterday.

The S&P index record high close came in at 6507.95 on September 8. The current price is at 6500.70

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Japanese manufacturers’ confidence climbed to its strongest level in more than three years in September, supported by easing trade tensions after Tokyo struck a tariff deal with Washington in July.

• The Reuters Tankan survey showed the manufacturers’ index rose to +13 from +9 in August, marking a third straight monthly gain and the highest since August 2022.
• Sentiment is expected to soften slightly to +11 by December.

The auto and transport machinery sector led the improvement, with its index jumping to 33, the best since late 2023, as firms reported steady overseas orders despite weak domestic production. Other industries such as textiles, oil refining and precision machinery were more downbeat, citing sluggish orders and the lingering impact of tariffs.

The non-manufacturing index rebounded to +27 in September from +24 in August, with real estate, retail and transport improving, though wholesalers and IT firms reported weaker conditions.

• The outlook for December was steady at +27.

Despite global trade uncertainty, Japan’s economy has been underpinned by solid consumption, with GDP expanding at an annualised 2.2% in Q2, according to revised data.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reports of Russian drone incursions into Poland.

This is likely to be unintentional. Well, lets hope so!

More:

• Rzeszów Airport in Poland has been closed
• warning to airman issues
• says closure is due to “Unplanned military activity”

More:

• At least three “Shahed” attack drones have reportedly been downed
• Ukrainian Air Force and aircraft with the NATO Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) are working together against the Russian drones

–

Little market response.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Barclays trimmed its 2026 Brent crude forecast by $4 to $66 a barrel, citing expectations that OPEC+ will fully phase out voluntary supply cuts by September 2026.

The bank noted OPEC+’s decision over the weekend to lift October production targets by 137,000 bpd as the first step in rolling back the 1.66 million bpd in cuts introduced in May 2023. At the current pace, the rollback would be completed within a year.

Barclays said markets took comfort that the pace of the unwind is slower than feared, pointing out that August and September increases were four times larger than October’s move. Still, the bank highlighted resilient spot fundamentals and a wide valuation gap as reasons it remains constructive on oil since early July.

—

Earlier:

• Oil: private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build vs. draw expected

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said a fresh Labor Department report confirms the U.S. economy is losing momentum. The agency cut its estimate of nonfarm payroll growth for the year through March 2025 by 911,000 jobs, the sharpest revision in over 20 years and worse than Wall Street expected ()

Benchmark revisions slash 911K jobs from US payrolls

Dimon noted the downgrade shows the economy generated far fewer jobs than previously believed. He added that JPMorgan, with its broad exposure to consumer, corporate, and trade data, is seeing signs of strain. While most Americans remain employed and spending, confidence may have weakened.

He described the backdrop as mixed, with households softening but corporate profits holding up. As for the Fed, Dimon expects a rate cut soon, though he doubts it will meaningfully change the trajectory of the economy.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump:

• I am pleased to announce that India, and United States of America, are continuing negotiations to address trade barriers
• India, and United States of America, are continuing negotiations to address trade barriers between our two nations
• Look forward to speaking with my very good friend, Prime Minister Modi, in upcoming weeks
• I look forward to speaking with my very good friend, Prime Minister Modi, in upcoming weeks
• Feel certain that there will be no difficulty in coming to a successful conclusion for both of our great countries

Earlier:

• Trump tells the European Union to slam China & India with 100% tariffs, to pressure Putin

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. Supreme Court to fast-track its review of the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariffs

• will hear arguments in November

Trump’s appeal is against a federal court ruling his tariffs exceeded his authority.

Tariffs will remain in place pending the Supreme Court’s decision.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Financial Times:

• Trump tells the European Union to slam China & India with 100% tariffs, to pressure Putin
• Trumps says the US is prepared to ‘mirror’ any tariff the EU imposes on China and India

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• BLS preliminary annual jobs revision down by – 911K versus -682K estimate
• White House: Assured Qatar that a strike on their soil will not happen again
• US August NFIB small business optimism index 100.8 vs 101.0 expected
• U.S. Treasury sells $58 billion of the 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.485%
• Blackrock Reider: I think the Fed should cut by 50 basis points next week
• Qatar: Condemns the attack by Israel on Hamas delegation
• The BOJ has some officials tilting to a hike sending the USD/JPY lower

Markets:

• Gold down $5 to $3630
• US 10-year yields up 3.6 bps to 4.08%
• WTI crude oil up 50-cents to $62.76
• S&P 500 up 18 points to 6513
• JPY leads, CHF lags

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed that previous jobs reports through March were overstated by 911,000 jobs. It was the largest revision on record and cut the level of US employment by 0.6%.

The drop wasn’t entirely unexpected as the economist consensus was 682K. Initially the US dollar dropped but evidently the market was braced for something even worse as the dollar quickly rebounded from the 20-pip blip on the headlines and continued steadily higher. Powell had warned at Jackson Hole that payrolls would be “revised down materially.” The Fed rate path didn’t reprice on news and the odds of a 50 bps cut next week actually slipped on the day.

Otherwise the market didn’t have much to chew on. The US dollar steadily rose as Treasury yields ticked higher. Equities were bid into the close yet-again and the Nasdaq notched another record high.

In FX, the euro was under some pressure and that was tied back to French political drama but the euro did slightly outperform the Swiss franc.

Tomorrow we get US PPI and that will build towards Wednesday’s CPI report.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2025 is due today. Its expected to show persistent deflation at -0.2% y/y from 0% y/y in July. Chinese domestic demand is running at weak levels despite ongoing incremental economic support and l stimulus efforts.

Also coming is the Producer Price Index (CPI), also persisting in deflation. In July Chinese policy shifted to “Anti-involution”, trying to address intense, unproductive competition that leads to inefficiency rather than progress.
The term refers to destructive, excessive competition with little progress, gained prominence after President Xi Jinping vowed to regulate chaotic price wars, especially in sectors like solar, EVs, and steel. Its an uphill battle though, overcapacity spans competitive private-sector industries.

The data is due at 0130 GMT, 2130 US Eastern time.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The oil market is about to get interesting.

Crude prices are higher today but haven’t been able to recover from last week’s drop — which started on rumors of an OPEC+ production increase. The rumors turned out to be true as 137K bpd will hit the market next month.

Worse yet, that pace of adding barrels is likely to continue until the full voluntary cuts are upwound (or possibly more than that beyond). This is a good graphic showing spare capacity.

Looking at the chart of crude, it’s in a precarious place. The bottom end of the recent range didn’t hold and we saw intraday selling yesterday and today. Support at $60 will probably need to be tested and if that breaks we could be back to the Liberation Day extremes, similar to what we saw in 2-year yields this week.

So far the resilience of oil has been impressive but there is talk of Chinese stockpiling. That won’t last forever and we could be headed for an ugly breakdown.

It could also be a big opportunity. $55 oil is simply not sustainable. Exploration spending is already bombed out at around $10 billion per year globally (or about 12 hours of AI capex spending) and it will worsen with lower prices. In addition, US shale basis are running out of Tier 1 inventory and dropping new drilling.

That sets up a period in late 2026 or in 2027 when the market is undersupplied and OPEC has virtually no spare capacity. That’s when it really gets interesting.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.