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China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2025 is due today. Its expected to show persistent deflation at -0.2% y/y from 0% y/y in July. Chinese domestic demand is running at weak levels despite ongoing incremental economic support and l stimulus efforts.

Also coming is the Producer Price Index (CPI), also persisting in deflation. In July Chinese policy shifted to “Anti-involution”, trying to address intense, unproductive competition that leads to inefficiency rather than progress.
The term refers to destructive, excessive competition with little progress, gained prominence after President Xi Jinping vowed to regulate chaotic price wars, especially in sectors like solar, EVs, and steel. Its an uphill battle though, overcapacity spans competitive private-sector industries.

The data is due at 0130 GMT, 2130 US Eastern time.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The oil market is about to get interesting.

Crude prices are higher today but haven’t been able to recover from last week’s drop — which started on rumors of an OPEC+ production increase. The rumors turned out to be true as 137K bpd will hit the market next month.

Worse yet, that pace of adding barrels is likely to continue until the full voluntary cuts are upwound (or possibly more than that beyond). This is a good graphic showing spare capacity.

Looking at the chart of crude, it’s in a precarious place. The bottom end of the recent range didn’t hold and we saw intraday selling yesterday and today. Support at $60 will probably need to be tested and if that breaks we could be back to the Liberation Day extremes, similar to what we saw in 2-year yields this week.

So far the resilience of oil has been impressive but there is talk of Chinese stockpiling. That won’t last forever and we could be headed for an ugly breakdown.

It could also be a big opportunity. $55 oil is simply not sustainable. Exploration spending is already bombed out at around $10 billion per year globally (or about 12 hours of AI capex spending) and it will worsen with lower prices. In addition, US shale basis are running out of Tier 1 inventory and dropping new drilling.

That sets up a period in late 2026 or in 2027 when the market is undersupplied and OPEC has virtually no spare capacity. That’s when it really gets interesting.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Israel struck at Hamas’ negotiating team in Qatar today and the White House doesn’t sound happy about it:

• This was a unilateral bombing of a sovereign nation
• This did not advance Israel’s goals
• US was notified by Pentagon that Israel was attacking Hamas in Qatar this morning
• Witkoff was told to inform Qataris of impending attack
• US feels badly about the location of the attack
• Netanyahu told Trump he wants to make peace deal fast

Meanwhile Al Jazeera reports — citing a senior Hamas source — that the leadership delegation survived the assassination attempt. The again, they often seem to say that but then it’s not true.

However if the strike missed then it might put to test that promise not to strike again.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Canadian economy is in a precarious position.

The Toronto housing market is slumping badly and that’s going to be some serious downward pressure in the pipeline as the sales of pre-build homes and condos dry up. In addition, there is deep uncertainty about US-Canada trade. For now, the vast majority trade is still flowing at 0% tariffs with steel, aluminum and forestry as big exemptions.

Where it gets scary is next summer when the renegotiation of the USMCA agreement begin. Trump may insist on 15% baseline tariffs on Canada and Mexico and that could kick off a fresh round of panic and pain. For now, the uncertainty is biting. Retail sales have held strong but a series of jobs reports have been weak and business investment is drying up.

There is upside here as well though. The court rulings invalidating tariffs — if upheld — are a big potential positive for both Canada and global growth. I’d expect CAD to be one of the biggest winners if those are struck down, though surely Trump would try to find other ways to add tariffs so that could complicate the situation.

There is also the potential for some kind of negotiated deal, though some of the comments from the Carney administration make me think it won’t be anything near as clean as what Canada has now.

In terms of the chart, it’s been a quiet range from 1.37-1.39 since August. The step up came after a poor Canadian employment report and it’s stayed there, though it could be starting to trace out a minor head-and-shoulders pattern. Zooming out, the downtrend still looks intact but a rise above 1.3940 (and 1.4000) would open the way for a return to the mid-1.40s. I’d imagine that kind of break would come alongside some soft Canadian economic data and a dovish BOC.

The next central bank meeting is Sept 17 — the same as the FOMC — and right now there is a 90% chance of a cut priced in but only 53 bps priced in for the year ahead. I tend to think the BOC is going to have to cut further and that inflation will stay in check .That could mean an additional 50-100 bps needs to be priced in, which should put downside pressure on the loonie (and upside in USD/CAD).

So the big picture view is to wait on a break of the 1.37-1.39 range and see what the BOC has to say.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Apple or dropping event is underway. You can watch it by clicking on the link above.

The shares of Apple are trading down $0.78 or -0.34% at $237.

• New Airpod 3

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury sold $58 billion of 3 year notes:

• High yield
• WI level at the time of the auction 3.492%
• tail -0.7 basis points versus 6 month average up +0.7 basis points
• bid to cover 2.73X versus 6 month average of 2.55X
• Dealers 8.373% versus 6 month average of 15.9%
• Directs 17.4% versus 6 month average of 21.9%
• Indirect 74.24% versus 6 month average of 62.1%

Auction grade:A

The only negative nuance from the auction is that domestic demand was lower than the six-month average. However, international demand was much stronger than the six-month average and if the goal is to sell the issue, they sold it with overall strong demand. The tail was negative at -0.7 basis points (versus 6 month average of +0.7 basis points). The bid to cover was higher than the six-month average at 2.73 versus 2.55 average.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major European indices closed mostly higher. The German DAX was the one exception:

• German DAX, -0.37%
• France’s CAC +0.19%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.23%
• Spain’s Ibex +0.14%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.68%.

US stocks are trading above and below unchanged today. The 3 major indices are currently back in positive territory. The NASDAQ index closed at a record level yesterday. The S&P is trading near the record close level from September 4 at 6502.08

• Dow industrial average +115 points or 0.25% at 45630
• S&P index up 5.94 points or 0.09% at 6501.14.
• NASDAQ index up 18.70 points or 0.08% at 21817

The small-cap Russell 2000 is still solidly in negative territory. The index is down -19.61 points or -0.82% at 2375.28.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $38 billion of the 3 year notes at the top of the hour. The results of the auction components will be compared to the 6 month averages to determine the relative success of the auction:

• Tail 0.7 basis points
• Bid to cover: 2.55X
• Directs (an indication of domestic demand): 21.9%
• Indirects (an indication of international demand): 62.1%
• Dealers: 15.9%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• We are now talking about the Fed that could cut rates 3 times by 25 basis point before the end of the year
• I think the Fed should cut by 50 basis points next week
• I think Fed independence is critical
• I think there are creative things that the Fed could do
• I think the biggest impact is how to put people back to work
• There is a massive amount of cash
• The bond market this tell you we need to get to at least neutral
• I would stay long equities.
• I think hard assets need to be part of investment portfolio – gold/bitcoin. But 5% of bitcoin is a bit high.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Israel Channel 12 is indicating that Israeli sees:

• The liquidation of 6 senior Hamas officials.
• Awaiting final confirmation

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The White House is out with a statement from White House press secretary Levitt saying: today,

The BLS released the largest downward revision on record proving that Pres. Trump was right: Biden’s economy was a disaster and the BLS is broken. This is exactly why we need new leadership to restore trust and confidence in the BLS’s data on behalf of the financial markets, businesses, policymakers, and families that rely on this data to make major decisions. Much like the BLS has failed the American people, so has Jerome “Too Late” Powell – who has officially run out of excuses and must cut the rates now.

The final revision will be made in February 2026.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Saudi Arabia is not pleased with the Israeli attack on Doha. Crown Prince

The crown prince affirmed the kingdom would support Qatar saying:

• They would deploy all capabilities to support Qatar
• Warns of dire consequences over Israel’s continued actions, citing alleged criminal violations.

Meanwhile, there are conflicting reports as to what the US knew and did not know. A US journalist Stein is reporting that the US was NOT given notified in advance of the Israeli strike in Doha. That conflicts with the early reports that Pres. Trump was notified and gave the green light.

UPDATE: The US is now saying that the Israeli notification came when the missiles had been launched, and therefore the Trump administration didn’t have a possibility to weigh in. Being involved would potentially disappoint Trump allies like Saudi Arabia.

Israel’s Netanyahu is saying that he ordered the security forces to prepare a strike on Hamas leaders after the Jerusalem and Gaza attacks, and believed the attacks were entirely justified. He ordered the attacks today after identifying a “operational opportunity.”

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.