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Summary:

• The U.S. Commerce Department has sharply reduced proposed antidumping duties on Italian pasta imports, stepping back from levels that risked forcing producers out of the U.S. market.

• Initial duties of up to 92% were revised down to 2.3% for La Molisana and 13.9% for Garofalo, with most other producers facing a 9.1% tariff.

• Italian pasta exporters remain subject to a separate 15% U.S. tariff on EU imports, limiting the overall relief.

• The decision follows weeks of lobbying by Italy’s government and industry groups.

• A final determination in the antidumping review is due by 11 March, leaving some residual uncertainty.

• The outcome helps protect roughly US$770 million in annual Italian pasta exports to the U.S.

Info via a Wall Street Journal report (gated).

Trump has stepped back from imposing trade-killing antidumping duties on Italian pasta makers, significantly reducing proposed tariffs and easing fears that major brands would be forced to withdraw from the U.S. market. The revised decision by the U.S. Commerce Department lowers duties dramatically from preliminary levels that had alarmed Italian producers and policymakers alike.

Under the revised measures, leading exporters La Molisana and Garofalo will face antidumping duties of 2.3% and 13.9%, respectively, down from an initial proposal of as much as 92%. Eleven other Italian pasta makers will be subject to a 9.1% tariff. While these duties still add to costs, the reductions are widely seen as allowing Italian pasta to remain commercially viable in U.S. stores.

The earlier proposal, issued in September, had stunned the Italian pasta industry, which exports around US$770 million worth of product annually to the United States. Producers warned that tariffs at those levels would have effectively shut them out of the market. In response, Italy’s government and industry leaders mounted an intense lobbying effort, framing the issue not just as a trade dispute but as a matter of national economic and cultural significance.

Defending pasta exports became a high-profile priority for the government of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, which has sought to position Italy as a close European partner of the Trump administration. Some Italian officials and executives privately questioned whether broader U.S. protectionist policies influenced the severity of the preliminary ruling, though U.S. officials rejected that view, insisting the decision was based on technical criteria.

Commerce said its updated analysis showed Italian producers had addressed many concerns raised earlier and reaffirmed its commitment to a fair and transparent process. However, uncertainty remains. The antidumping review is still ongoing, with a final report due by March 11. Moreover, Italian pasta exporters continue to face a separate 15% U.S. tariff on European Union imports, meaning overall trade conditions remain restrictive despite the relief.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• Australia’s manufacturing sector remained in expansion in December, with the PMI holding at 51.6 for a second straight month.

• New orders and output continued to grow, though momentum eased amid softer foreign demand and tighter competition.

• Employment rose at the fastest pace in nine months, supported by better candidate availability and rising workloads.

• Supply conditions deteriorated sharply, with delivery times lengthening at the fastest pace since late 2024.

• Input cost inflation accelerated, driven by higher material and shipping expenses, with output prices also rising.

• Business confidence improved to a four-month high, supported by expansion plans and new product launches.

Australia’s manufacturing sector ended 2025 on a modestly positive footing, with activity continuing to expand in December despite signs of easing momentum. According to PMI data from S&P Global, growth in new orders and output was sustained, hiring strengthened, and business confidence improved, even as supply constraints and cost pressures intensified.

The seasonally adjusted Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index held steady at 51.6 in December, unchanged from November and comfortably above the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The reading marked a second consecutive month of modest improvement in operating conditions across the sector.

Down from the flash reading:

• Australia preliminary December PMI: Manufacturing 52.2 (prior 51.6) services 51.0 (52.8)

Production rose for the second month running, supported by higher inflows of new work. However, both output and new order growth slowed relative to earlier in the quarter. Firms reported that while domestic demand conditions were improving, softer market sentiment, heightened competition and weaker overseas demand limited overall growth. New export orders declined marginally for a fourth straight month, reflecting ongoing budget constraints among foreign clients.

Despite the moderation in demand growth, manufacturers increased hiring at the fastest pace in nine months. Improved labour availability supported workforce expansion, helping firms further reduce outstanding workloads. Purchasing activity also increased in response to higher production needs, though overall inventories continued to edge lower for a third consecutive month.

Supply-side pressures intensified notably in December. Delivery times lengthened at the sharpest pace in over a year due to material shortages and logistical delays, contributing to an acceleration in input cost inflation. Higher raw material and shipping expenses pushed costs up at a faster rate than in November, though inflation remained below long-term survey averages.

Manufacturers passed some of these cost increases on to customers, lifting output prices again in December. Encouragingly, business sentiment strengthened to its highest level in four months, with firms citing new product launches and expansion plans as key drivers of expected growth over the coming year.

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Earlier, not a positive for AUD sentiment

• ICYMI: China slaps 55% tariff on excess beef imports under new three-year safeguard regime

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary, and note there is AUD risk in this news:

• China will impose a 55% tariff on beef imports exceeding newly set quotas from January 1, 2026, under a three-year safeguard regime.

• The 2026 total import quota is set at 2.7 million tonnes, broadly in line with 2024 imports but below 2025 shipment levels for key suppliers.

• Brazil and Australia are most affected, with quota caps falling well below their recent export volumes to China.

• Beijing says the measures are needed to protect the domestic cattle industry, citing damage from rising imports and weak competitiveness.

• Analysts warn the policy is unlikely to fix structural weaknesses in China’s beef sector and may disrupt global trade flows amid tight supply.

• Exporters have pushed back, with Australia calling the move disappointing and Brazilian industry groups warning of billions in potential revenue losses.

China has announced new safeguard measures on beef imports, imposing a steep 55% tariff on volumes that exceed newly defined country-level quotas, in a move aimed at protecting its domestic cattle industry. The measures will take effect from January 1, 2026, and remain in place for three years, with quotas set to rise modestly each year

Under the new framework, China has set a total import quota of 2.7 million metric tonnes for 2026, broadly in line with the 2.87 million tonnes imported in 2024 but below shipment levels recorded by several major suppliers during 2025. Brazil and Australia, China’s two largest beef exporters, face quota limits that sit well under their year-to-date shipments, meaning a significant portion of current trade flows could be subject to punitive tariffs.

China’s commerce ministry said the surge in imported beef has caused “serious damage” to the domestic industry, following an investigation launched late last year. Officials argue the safeguards will help stabilise breeding-cow inventories and give domestic producers time to restructure, modernise and upgrade operations. Policymakers have already stepped up sector support in 2025, noting cattle farming profitability has improved in recent months.

Analysts, however, remain sceptical that tariffs alone can resolve structural challenges. Industry experts point out that China’s beef-cattle sector remains fundamentally uncompetitive relative to producers in Brazil and Argentina, for example, a gap unlikely to be closed quickly through policy or technological change.

The decision lands amid a tight global beef market, with supply shortages driving prices to record highs in several regions, including the United States. Exporters have responded cautiously. Australian officials described the move as disappointing, while industry representatives stressed that alternative export destinations remain available. Brazilian authorities struck a more measured tone, signalling potential negotiations with Beijing and an ability to redirect shipments, though domestic lobby groups warned the measures could cost Brazil up to US$3 billion in export revenue in 2026.

Overall, the safeguards underscore Beijing’s willingness to prioritise agricultural self-sufficiency, even at the cost of trade friction with key partners.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

If you would like to stay in holiday mode again today I’ve good news for you. The vacation mood will carry on for today, Friday, January 2, 2026, with professional activity mainly returning on Monday the 5th.

I thought we might have Rating Dog services PMI from China today, after we got official PMIs and Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI back on Friday:

• China official December 2025 PMIs: Manufacturing 50.1 (exp 49.2) Non-manu 50.2 (exp 49.8)
• China S&P Global/Rating Dog December 2025 Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expect 49.8, prior 49.9)

But, no, we’ll be waiting until Monday for that. Instead today it’s a couple of minor data points from Australia:

The manufacturing PMI is the ‘final’ for December. We had the, preliminary / flash back in mid-December:

• Australia preliminary December PMI: Manufacturing 52.2 (prior 51.6) services 51.0 (52.8)
• The headline S&P Global Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index eased to 51.1 in December from 52.6 in November, marking the lowest reading in seven months but remaining above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The result extended the current expansionary run to fifteen consecutive months, underscoring ongoing growth across both services and manufacturing.

If you’ve read down this far, here’s a bit more. Some early FX pricing for the session. Its not from New Zealand markets as is usual at this time, NZ is out for a holiday today. It’s the “Day after New Year’s Day” holiday. Smart move, that.

But, what is usual is my standard caveat. Its not Monday, but given the global holiday on Thursday market conditions re thin liquidity are worthy of a caution:

• As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there.

Not too much change from late Wednesday.

Whoops, nearly forgot … Happy New Year!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.