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Risk retreats as Powell investigation raises fears on Fed independence
Risk retreats as Powell investigation raises fears on Fed independence

Risk retreats as Powell investigation raises fears on Fed independence

425200   January 12, 2026 12:39   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

It’s no wonder why precious metals continue to stay so bullish. Trump is making the headlines again to start the new week and in case you missed it:

This just continues the episode from last year as Trump continues to take aim at the Fed independence amid his disdain for Powell. While it isn’t new, it serves as a good reminder of how the situation is playing out. And markets are clearly responding with contempt as evident by the risk selling we’re seeing to start the week now.

S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% with Nasdaq futures down 0.9% and Dow futures down 0.5% as we look towards European morning trade today.

The Fed will surely continue to do their job regardless of this investigation. However, it’s just unnecessary drama for something that shouldn’t even be an issue. Politics and central bank don’t tend to mix in well together. Just take a look at what’s happening with Japan now as another example.

But essentially, Trump’s continued attacks will just keep drawing flak and raises fears about credibility and independence at the Fed moving forward. And that is something that will keep chipping away at confidence in the central bank and the dollar in general.

For now, risk trades are taking a step back amid the unprecedented attack on Powell. And it comes at a crucial time for US stocks as well. Earnings season is kicking off this week with the big banks set to report, but also keep an eye out on TSMC earnings. The latter is a bellwether for how chipmakers might fare and so that might be the biggest name to watch this week.

Besides that, geopolitical risks are also still not completely out of the picture just yet. Trump continues to raise threats on Greenland and Iran, keeping a more nervous mood on the global stage after the situation in Venezuela.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

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investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump attacks Fed, Powell attacks back
investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump attacks Fed, Powell attacks back

investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump attacks Fed, Powell attacks back

425199   January 12, 2026 11:39   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Weekend:

Summary:

  • USD slides on Fed independence fears: Dollar fell sharply after Powell said the Justice Department issued grand jury subpoenas, reviving concerns over political pressure on the Federal Reserve.

  • Markets turn defensive: Gold and silver surged, US equity futures fell, and risk sentiment weakened as institutional risk re-entered pricing.

  • Senate pushback escalates: Senator Thom Tillis said he will block confirmation of any Fed nominee until the investigation into Powell is resolved, raising leadership uncertainty.

  • Oil supported by Iran risks: Crude prices rose on fears protests in Iran could disrupt up to 1.9 mbpd of exports, though gains were capped by Venezuela uncertainty.

  • Trump–Exxon tensions resurface: Trump said he may block Exxon from investing in Venezuela after the company’s CEO called the country “uninvestable.”

The US dollar suffered its sharpest setback in almost three weeks after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell disclosed that the central bank had received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department. Powell characterised the move as a politically motivated attempt by the Trump administration to influence monetary policy, reviving long-standing concerns around Federal Reserve independence.

The remarks rattled markets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell around 0.2%, US equity index futures moved lower, and strategists warned that renewed institutional risk could undermine the greenback. The dollar weakened broadly against G10 peers, though it later clawed back ground against a notably weak yen, while gold and silver surged sharply as investors sought protection from political and policy uncertainty.

Political fallout intensified when Republican Senator Thom Tillis, a senior member of the Senate Banking Committee, said he would block confirmation of any Federal Reserve nominee, including the next Fed chair, until the legal maters are resolved. Tillis said the episode removed any doubt that efforts were under way to erode Fed independence, adding that the credibility of the Justice Department itself was now at stake. Note that if a successor is not confirmed, Powell would remain in the role beyond the end of his current term.

In commodities, oil prices extended gains as rising protests in Iran stoked concerns over potential supply disruptions from the OPEC producer. Analysts noted calls for oil workers to down tools, warning that as much as 1.9 million barrels per day of Iranian exports could be at risk if unrest escalates. President Donald Trump added to the geopolitical backdrop, saying the US has “strong options” to respond to any Iranian attack with overwhelming force.

Trump said he may block Exxon Mobil from investing in the country after the company’s CEO described Venezuela as “uninvestable,” underscoring the political and legal risks that continue to complicate any rapid recovery in Venezuelan oil output.

Note the weekend news above, plenty of Arctic geopolitics!

Asia-Pac
stocks:

  • Japan
    (Nikkei 225) +1.6%
  • Hong
    Kong (Hang Seng) +0.86%
  • Shanghai
    Composite +0.75%
  • Australia
    (S&P/ASX 200) +0.41%

This is real, Trump on his ‘Truth’ app:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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UK hiring weakens again as wage growth stays firm, complicating BoE outlook
UK hiring weakens again as wage growth stays firm, complicating BoE outlook

UK hiring weakens again as wage growth stays firm, complicating BoE outlook

425198   January 12, 2026 09:30   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Summary:

  • UK hiring fell for a 39th straight month in December

  • Permanent placements declined at the fastest pace in four months

  • Starting salaries rose at the strongest rate since May

  • Payroll tax rises continue to weigh on recruitment

  • BoE faces tension between weaker jobs data and wage pressures

Britain’s labour market showed further signs of cooling at the end of 2025, even as wage pressures remained elevated, reinforcing the policy dilemma facing the Bank of England as it weighs the timing and pace of future interest-rate cuts.

A closely watched survey from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG showed hiring activity weakened again in December, marking the 39th consecutive monthly decline in permanent staff placements. The downturn was the steepest in four months, underscoring persistent caution among employers amid higher costs and an uncertain economic outlook.

Businesses have increasingly pointed to the payroll tax increase introduced in Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ 2024 budget as a key factor restraining recruitment. Combined with elevated borrowing costs and subdued growth, firms continue to limit headcount expansion and rely more heavily on temporary staff to retain flexibility.

Despite the slowdown in hiring, pay growth showed renewed momentum. Starting salaries for permanent roles rose at the fastest pace since May, reflecting ongoing competition for workers with in-demand skills. Even so, wage growth remained below its long-run average, suggesting some easing from the peaks seen earlier in the inflation cycle.

Survey respondents noted a modest rise in candidate availability alongside falling vacancies, a pattern consistent with a gradual loosening of labour market conditions. Temporary hiring also declined, weighed down by weak business confidence and cost concerns.

The BoE cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% in December, but policymakers remain divided between those focused on sticky wage-driven inflation and others warning of a more pronounced labour market slowdown.

Financial markets currently expect one or two additional quarter-point rate cuts in 2026. However, the persistence of pay growth, even as hiring weakens, complicates the outlook and suggests the BoE is likely to proceed cautiously as it assesses whether easing inflation pressures are sufficiently entrenched.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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EUR wobbles – France budget at risk as confidence votes threaten government collapse
EUR wobbles – France budget at risk as confidence votes threaten government collapse

EUR wobbles – France budget at risk as confidence votes threaten government collapse

425197   January 12, 2026 05:45   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Summary:

  • France warns 2026 budget may be delayed past March elections

  • Confidence votes next week threaten government survival

  • Possible National Assembly dissolution if government falls

  • Budget talks already late amid deficit concerns

  • Political uncertainty weighs on fiscal credibility

France budget risks delay as confidence votes threaten government stability

France’s fragile fiscal outlook is back in focus after Budget Minister Amélie de Montchalin warned that adoption of the country’s 2026 finance bill could be pushed back until after municipal elections in March if lawmakers topple the government in confidence votes expected next week.

Speaking in a televised interview on Sunday, de Montchalin said the collapse of the government would make it “impossible” to pass a budget before the local elections, underscoring the political risks hanging over France’s already-delayed fiscal process. Her comments follow remarks from another cabinet minister suggesting President Emmanuel Macron would dissolve the National Assembly and call snap legislative elections if the government loses a no-confidence vote.

France has been operating under heightened political uncertainty since Macron lost his parliamentary majority, forcing the government to rely on fragile alliances and procedural tools to advance legislation. Budget negotiations for 2026 are already running late, against a backdrop of persistent deficits, rising debt servicing costs and growing scrutiny from ratings agencies and EU fiscal authorities.

Tensions escalated on Friday after the far-right National Rally and the left-wing France Unbowed jointly called for parliamentary confidence votes tied to opposition to the EU’s Mercosur trade agreement with Latin America. While the trade deal itself is unlikely to be decisive, it has become a political flashpoint for parties seeking to weaken the government.

If the government falls, attention would quickly shift to the risk of snap elections, further delaying fiscal decision-making and complicating France’s commitments to rein in deficits under revised EU budget rules. Municipal elections in March already limit lawmakers’ appetite for tough fiscal choices, increasing the likelihood of a prolonged budget vacuum.

For markets, the renewed political instability raises concerns about France’s fiscal credibility, with implications for OAT spreads, euro sentiment and broader confidence in Europe’s ability to deliver disciplined budget policy amid slowing growth.

Snap election? Given the fractured politics in France it may not resolve anything.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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ICYMI: Japan’s PM Takaichi is considering calling a snap election for mid-February
ICYMI: Japan’s PM Takaichi is considering calling a snap election for mid-February

ICYMI: Japan’s PM Takaichi is considering calling a snap election for mid-February

425196   January 12, 2026 05:14   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Adam had the news on Friday:

More on this, summary:

  • LDP lawmakers expect possible Lower House dissolution in late January

  • Snap election could be held as early as February

  • Takaichi citing inflation relief and economic impact as priorities

  • Ruling bloc holds slim Lower House majority, Upper House minority

  • Election logistics already being quietly prepared

Speculation is building within Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party that Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae could dissolve the Lower House at the start of the ordinary Diet session later this month, potentially triggering a snap general election as early as February.

A growing number of LDP lawmakers believe the prime minister is inclined to seek a fresh mandate while cabinet approval ratings remain relatively strong. The ordinary Diet session is scheduled to begin on January 23, a timing that would allow an early or mid-February election if the chamber is dissolved promptly.

Asked about the possibility of dissolution, Takaichi said the government’s priority is ensuring households feel the benefits of economic policy and measures aimed at curbing rising prices. She added that the administration is continuing to work on inflation relief and broader economic support, comments widely seen as leaving the election option open.

The Takaichi administration currently holds only a slim majority in the Lower House after three independents joined the LDP bloc, while remaining in the minority in the Upper House. That fragile parliamentary arithmetic has added to expectations that the prime minister may move early rather than risk erosion of political momentum.

LDP policy chief Kobayashi Takayuki said the authority to dissolve the Lower House rests solely with the prime minister, warning lawmakers they should always be prepared “as if on a battlefield.” Similar language has been echoed across both ruling and opposition parties.

Opposition leaders have also begun positioning for an election. Constitutional Democratic Party head Noda Yoshihiko said Takaichi would face scrutiny over whether she is prioritising a political mandate over tackling inflation and economic challenges. Democratic Party for the People leader Tamaki Yuichiro said candidate preparations would be accelerated.

Coalition partner Komeito, however, has urged focus on inflation countermeasures rather than political manoeuvring.

The Internal Affairs Ministry has already instructed prefectural election boards to prepare for a possible vote. Any final decision may hinge on public opinion, upcoming diplomatic engagements with South Korea and Italy, and the impact a snap election could have on deliberations over the fiscal 2026 budget.

***

Takaichi’s objective in calling a near-term election would be to secure a stronger governing mandate. For traders and investors, the more immediate implication is the prospect of even greater fiscal support under her administration. The market read is negative for both JGBs and the yen, given Japan’s already extreme public-debt burden and rising debt-servicing costs as the Bank of Japan gradually edges rates higher.

The yen weakened last week ahead of Friday’s headlines and has extended those losses since, timing that some in the market may view with raised eyebrows (cough … insider trading … cough).

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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Economic and event calendar in Asia for Monday is very light, and its a Japanese holiday
Economic and event calendar in Asia for Monday is very light, and its a Japanese holiday

Economic and event calendar in Asia for Monday is very light, and its a Japanese holiday

425195   January 12, 2026 04:30   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

The PPI data listed on the calendar from Japan is not due today, its due on Wednesday 14 January 2026.

Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today.

The data from Australia is not likely to move Oz markets around much at all upon release.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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Europe moves to boost NATO Arctic presence to counter Trump’s Greenland rhetoric/threat
Europe moves to boost NATO Arctic presence to counter Trump’s Greenland rhetoric/threat

Europe moves to boost NATO Arctic presence to counter Trump’s Greenland rhetoric/threat

425194   January 12, 2026 04:00   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Summary:

  • UK and Germany are leading talks on boosting European and NATO military presence in Greenland.

  • Germany plans to propose a NATO Arctic mission, Arctic Sentry, modelled on Baltic Sentry.

  • Move aims to undercut Trump’s argument that the US must control Greenland for security.

  • European concern has intensified after recent US military action in Venezuela.

  • Denmark seeks diplomacy to counter what it calls exaggerated US security claims.

European powers led by the UK and Germany are discussing plans to expand their military presence in Greenland and the wider Arctic, aiming to demonstrate that Europe and NATO already have regional security under control and to blunt renewed rhetoric from Donald Trump about US ownership of the island, Bloomberg (gated) reported.

Germany is preparing to propose a joint NATO Arctic mission, informally dubbed Arctic Sentry, modelled on the alliance’s Baltic Sentry operation, according to people familiar with the discussions. The move would signal a stronger allied footprint in the High North amid rising concern over Russia and China’s Arctic ambitions.

The push follows Trump’s repeated claims that the US must control Greenland to prevent Russian or Chinese encroachment, assertions rejected by Nordic governments. European leaders are increasingly alarmed by the president’s recent rhetoric and actions, including a US raid to capture Venezuela’s leader, which has sharpened fears about Washington’s willingness to use force to achieve foreign-policy goals.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has urged allies to increase their security presence in the Arctic and has held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Starmer has also spoken directly with Trump, stressing the need to deter an increasingly aggressive Russia in the region.

Germany’s foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, is set to raise Greenland and NATO’s role in Arctic stability during talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week. Denmark, meanwhile, hopes an imminent diplomatic visit to Washington can temper tensions and correct what it says are exaggerated security claims.

While Trump has said he prefers to “make a deal” to acquire Greenland, he has not ruled out the use of force. Rubio has since told lawmakers that Washington’s aim remains a purchase rather than military intervention — an assurance closely watched by European capitals wary of strain on NATO unity.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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Trump orders special forces to draft Greenland invasion plan —UK Sunday Daily Mail report
Trump orders special forces to draft Greenland invasion plan —UK Sunday Daily Mail report

Trump orders special forces to draft Greenland invasion plan —UK Sunday Daily Mail report

425193   January 11, 2026 10:39   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Summary:

  • Daily Mail reports Trump has ordered US special forces to prepare invasion plans for Greenland.

  • Senior US military leaders are resisting the plan, calling it illegal and lacking congressional backing.

  • Advisers led by Stephen Miller are said to be pushing the idea after the Venezuela operation.

  • British diplomats see a possible political motive ahead of US mid-term elections.

  • European officials warn extreme scenarios could fracture NATO.

For markets:

  • Escalatory Greenland rhetoric raises geopolitical tail risks in the Arctic region.

  • Any strain on NATO cohesion would be negative for European security confidence.

  • Heightened geopolitical uncertainty typically supports safe-haven assets.

  • FX volatility could rise if US-Europe relations deteriorate.

  • Energy and defence sectors may see increased risk-premium pricing.

The UK’s Sunday Daily Mail reported that US President Donald Trump has instructed his top special forces commanders to draw up contingency plans for the invasion of Greenland, a move that senior US military leaders are reportedly resisting. According to sources cited by The Mail on Sunday, advisers close to Trump, particularly political strategist Stephen Miller, have been emboldened by the recent operation to capture Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro, and want to act quickly to seize the Arctic island before Russia or China can make a move.

British diplomatic sources believe Trump may also be driven by domestic political motives, hoping a dramatic foreign-policy action could distract American voters from weak economic performance ahead of this year’s mid-term elections. However, the plan has alarmed senior military figures, with the Joint Chiefs of Staff reportedly pushing back on the grounds that an invasion would be illegal and lack congressional support.

One insider told the paper that generals are attempting to divert Trump’s focus toward “less controversial measures,” such as countering alleged Russian “ghost ships” or a potential strike on Iran, likening the effort to dealing with “a five-year-old.”

Diplomats have reportedly war-gamed a range of scenarios, from “escalatory” use of force or coercion to sever Greenland’s ties with Denmark, to a “compromise scenario” in which Denmark grants the US expanded military access while formally barring Russia and China. A diplomatic cable cited by The Mail warned the most extreme scenario could “lead to the destruction of NATO from the inside.”

According to the cable, hardline figures around Trump may see occupying Greenland as a way to force European NATO members into abandoning the alliance, since Congress would not allow the president to unilaterally withdraw the United States from NATO. Under the compromise approach, Denmark would let the US expand legal military rights on the island — rights it already enjoys in practice — potentially aligning Greenland with Washington’s strategic goals.

European officials reportedly believe the window for action is narrowing ahead of the mid-term elections, and have pointed to the upcoming NATO summit as a possible moment to cement a deal. A diplomatic source told the Daily Mail that British positioning will be key, noting that UK support for Europe could shape how allies respond to Trump’s proposals. Generals, meanwhile, are said to consider Trump’s Greenland plan “crazy and illegal” and are trying to distract him with other military priorities.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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Trump floats one-year 10% credit-card rate cap, offers zero enforcement detail, just talk
Trump floats one-year 10% credit-card rate cap, offers zero enforcement detail, just talk

Trump floats one-year 10% credit-card rate cap, offers zero enforcement detail, just talk

425192   January 10, 2026 09:39   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Summary:

  • Trump calls for 10% credit-card APR cap for one year, effective Jan 20, 2026.

  • No enforcement detail: unclear if voluntary or government-mandated.

  • Part of a populist “affordability” burst this week (incl. MBS buying idea and ban on institutional home buyers).

  • Big gap to current pricing: Fed data shows 22.30% (Nov 2025) on the key credit-card rate series.

  • Without legislation / clear authority, this looks like headline politics first, policy mechanics later.

President Donald Trump has called for a one-year cap of 10% on US credit-card interest rates, saying consumers are being “ripped off” and framing the move as an “affordability” push. The proposal would start January 20, 2026, the first anniversary of his return to the White House, but Trump provided no detail on the mechanism, leaving open whether he expects voluntary compliance from issuers or is signalling some form of government enforcement.

The lack of detail matters, because credit-card pricing is not something a president can simply “announce” into existence. In practice, a hard cap would typically require Congressional legislation and/or actions through the US regulatory framework. Yet the main federal watchdog for card practices, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), has been a long-running target of conservatives, and the Trump administration has pursued steps that would reduce or constrain its reach.

What Trump is doing, clearly, is leaning into a string of populist, social-media-first affordability declarations this week, high on punchy intent, low on executable detail. In the days prior he posted about ordering “his representatives” to buy mortgage bonds to push borrowing costs lower, and about banning institutional investors from buying single-family homes. Together, the sequence reads as an attempt to reclaim the cost-of-living narrative with simple targets (banks, Wall Street, institutions) and headline-friendly numbers (10%). This all, of course, in an election year (mid-terms) with Trump’s popularity continuing to make new lows and therefore threatening the Republican majorities in Congress. I posted earlier in the week that I expect populist announcements and an eventual hit to the US dollar (not yet though, the dollar higher on Friday: investingLive Americas market news wrap: Nonfarm payrolls a touch soft, no tariff decision)

On the numbers, the policy would be a dramatic cut versus prevailing rates: the Federal Reserve’s series for commercial bank credit-card interest (accounts assessed interest) shows 22.30% in November 2025. That gap underscores why markets and issuers will focus on “how” rather than “what”, and why, without a clear legislative pathway, the announcement looks more like political signalling than an immediately actionable policy shift.

Congressional interest in caps is real and notably bipartisan, past proposals have sought a 10% ceiling, but they have not become law. Until a bill advances (or a credible regulatory/administrative route is spelled out), the most likely near-term impact is messaging and volatility in related headlines, rather than an instant repricing of consumer credit.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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investingLive Americas market news wrap: Nonfarm payrolls a touch soft, no tariff decision
investingLive Americas market news wrap: Nonfarm payrolls a touch soft, no tariff decision

investingLive Americas market news wrap: Nonfarm payrolls a touch soft, no tariff decision

425191   January 10, 2026 04:14   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Markets:

  • Gold up $28 to $4503
  • Silver up 3.8%
  • WTI crude up $1.20 to $58.97
  • US 10-year yields flat at 4.17%
  • S&P 500 up 0.8% to fresh record
  • USD leads, JPY lags

It was a lively news day but not as much as it could have been. The Supreme Court released a decision on Friday as expected but it wasn’t about tariffs, so we will continue to wait for that. The next possible date is Wednesday, which has also been scheduled as a ‘decision day’.

In terms of what happened, the non-farm payrolls report led to volatile trading. The dollar rose on the kneejerk, then fell around 25 pips due to the softer headline and revisions, then started a long climb as the market focused on the lower unemployment rate. That view was validated by Barkin, who said he welcomed falling unemployment.

Overall, the US dollar moves weren’t big.

The loonie didn’t get any help from a strong jobs report as USD/CAD rose for the six straight day to start the year. That pair is now at a five week high, even as oil prices rise. Part of the reason is compressing Canadian heavy oil spreads after the US-Venezuela coup.

The big loser on the day was the yen and most of that came before the election reports but I think that’s a critical spot to watch. If Takaichi launches a campaign and promises even more spending, that could turbocharge worries about Japanese indebtedness and further boost long-term borrowing costs. She’s polling well so it shouldn’t be a surprise if she decides to pull the trigger.

A bid for precious metals came midway through US trading and I wonder if the market is sensing weekend risk after the drama in Venezuela. It seems as though Cuba is on the clock and maybe Greenland too. Further, keep an eye on Iran this weekend as protests there likely lifted gold and oil prices in Friday.

Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

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The US earnings calendar heats up next week with banks and airlines
The US earnings calendar heats up next week with banks and airlines

The US earnings calendar heats up next week with banks and airlines

425190   January 10, 2026 03:00   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Friday was about the jobs report but the week ahead will see the market tilt towards earnings.. The S&P 500 is flirting with 7,000, yields are looking for direction, and the solid economy in 2026 narrative is crowded.

The bank numbers and commentary will serve as a high-stakes health check on the US consumer—specifically if loan losses are finally starting to bite. If the consumer is cracking under the weight of higher rates, Jamie Dimon’s commentary will be the first place we see it.

Beyond the banks, we’re looking for a signal that the freight recession has found a floor and if chip demand has any red flags.

Here is what to watch:

Banks:

It’s big bank earnings week with: JPM, Wells Fargo, Citi, BofA

  • Tuesday (JPM) & Wednesday (WFC, C, BAC)

  • On the macro view, it’s about credit quality. I’m looking for signs that consumers are falling behind on payments.

  • EPS Consensus (JPM): ~$5.01 (Whispers are higher, closer to $5.10)

  • Watch credit card delinquencies.

We know the affluent consumer is fine (wealth effect from stocks/housing). We need to know how badly the lower end consumer is hurting. Watch for loan loss provisions and commentary about spending. For the market more broadly, there could also be some talk about M&A, which would also be a positive economic and market signal.

JPM CEO Jamie Dimon is typically candid but he’s been hit-or-miss on macro signals so take his views with that in mind.

Airlines:

At the top end of the K-shaped economy, watch for Delta Airlines earnings on Tuesday morning. The consensus is $1.63. Travel is a good barometer of economic confidence but what we’re likely seeing in airlines is high end consumer traveling more, including in premium seats and middle income consumers getting squeezed. That’s been working ok for airlines and I think they’re a good investment but if those economy seats don’t fill, that could change.

Another signal worth watching is commentary on business travel, which has slowly been coming back post-covid but still isn’t all the way there.

Chipmakers:

TSMC on Thursday morning is arguably the big one for the week. They make Nvidia’s chips and have great visibility into the order book. With valuations very high, any sign of weakness whatsoever could spread broadly in tech.

TSMC is the bellwether. If they guide for continued acceleration in “High Performance Computing” (HPC), the AI bull run gets a green light for 2026. Any hesitation here will drag down the entire Nasdaq (NVDA, AMD).

Freight:

J.B. Hunt (JBHT) reports Thursday after the close.

Manufacturing and freight have been in a brutal recession and signs of a bottom are hard to find but some freight names bounced from the lows in Q4, so there is optimism headed into the new year. Is it misplaced? JBHT could tell us.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

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White House says Trump jobs report leak was “inadvertent public disclosure”
White House says Trump jobs report leak was “inadvertent public disclosure”

White House says Trump jobs report leak was “inadvertent public disclosure”

425189   January 10, 2026 02:14   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

The White House is out with damage control after Trump leaked the jobs numbers late yesterday on Truth Social.

“Following the regular procedure of presidents being prebriefed on
economic data releases, there was an inadvertent public disclosure of
aggregate data that was partially derived from pre-released information.
The White House is accordingly reviewing protocols regarding economic
data releases. ”

The statement continued with some kind of rant about the media.

If you missed it: How Trump leaked the non-farm payrolls report

The jobs report itself has led to a diminished pricing for a rate cut in March.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

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