The post Ex-Dividend 20/10/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Pull Back as Trade Tensions Increase – Dow down 0.65%

US stock indices fell in trading yesterday as trade tensions between the US and China continued to ratchet higher. The Dow fell 0.65% to 45,952, the S&P dropped 0.63% to 6,629, and the Nasdaq lost 0.47% to close at 22,562. Treasury yields dropped as Fed members talked up rate cuts, the 2-year down 7.3 basis points to 3.424%, and the benchmark 10-year fell 5.4 basis points to 3.974%. The dollar also lost ground against the majors, the DXY down 0.45% to 98.35. Oil prices dropped again to hit new multi-month lows, Brent off 1.45% to $61.01, and WTI down 1.39% to $54.46 a barrel. Gold again powered higher to record more record highs, up 2.83% on the day to close at $4,326.58.

Gold Continues to Fly Higher

Gold again powered higher in trading yesterday as the planets aligned to push the world’s favorite precious metal to record levels. It added another 2.8% in yesterday’s session to lock in a 15% rise this month and a near 25% appreciation since it broke the previous high on September 2nd. Its current high is $4,374.88, but investors now feel that it could hit the key $4,500 level in short order if the flows that it has seen recently continue. Traders are still trying to comprehend the epic move that we have seen in the last six weeks, with various theories being thrown out in the market—from currency debasement to haven flows and huge portfolio reallocations—but whatever the reason behind the move, the trend is clearly still higher. Support levels are moving further away due to the momentum of the move, with trendline support now on the daily chart down around the $4,050 level. While traders are wary of sharp pullbacks, it does seem that dips will be well supported as the move continues.

Quiet Calendar Day to Finish the Week

It is a very limited macroeconomic calendar today that closes out another busy week for traders. Investors are again expecting geopolitical updates to dominate flows today, and there is little scheduled that will distract traders’ attention from newswires. The Asian session is set to open on the back foot after a poor day on Wall Street as trade tensions between the US and China continue to simmer. The lack of US data continues to weigh on markets as we close out another week of the US government shutdown, with some commentators estimating that the closure is costing close to $15 billion a day. We do again hear from some senior central bankers over the course of the day, with the Bundesbank’s Joachim Nagel and the MPC’s Sarah Breedon speaking in Washington, which could affect the euro and pound; however, expect trade updates to dominate.

The post General Market Analysis – 17/10/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 98.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 98.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.53
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.1618

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1554

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1712

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 176.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 174.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 177.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8725

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8657
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8750
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3356

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3269
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3523
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 202.86

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 201.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 204.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7947

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7896
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 0.8008
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 150.91

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 148.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 152.47

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance. This  is a significant resistance that could cap further upward movement and coincide with profit-taking zones for bullish positions

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                                

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce off toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.4012

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 1.3919

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4156

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6530

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap zone where any brief bullish recovery could find resistance before resuming the bearish trend.

1st support: 0.6446

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6558

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, this level could cap upside potential in the current bearish structure.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5762

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5698

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5803

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 46,182.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback zone where any brief bullish recovery could find resistance before resuming the bearish trend.

1st support: 45,244.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 46,854.31

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,344.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 23,935.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,771.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 6,697.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 6,520.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,760.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 112,195.81

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 107,723.74

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 114,604.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,263.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 3,831.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,455.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 60.57

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 57.01
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 63.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,179.64

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 4,059.16
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,375.11
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistancethat is supported by the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Friday 17th October 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 17 October 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Overnight markets saw mixed risk sentiment. Strong U.S. retail data and solid earnings from chipmakers buoyed equities, but trade tensions and Fed uncertainty capped gains. Gold reached new highs on safe-haven flows, while the dollar softened amid dovish expectations and global risk aversion. The most affected instruments were gold, U.S. tech stocks, and the AUD.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Escalating US-China trade tensions with the November 1 tariff deadline looming, Singapore’s trade data reflecting regional export pressures, and central bank policy uncertainty, particularly around the Bank of Japan’s next moves. Gold continues its record-breaking rally as safe-haven demand intensifies, while oil languishes near five-month lows on demand concerns. The combination of geopolitical tensions, mixed economic data, and dovish central bank signals creates a challenging environment requiring careful risk management.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar faces continued headwinds from three primary factors: the escalating US-China trade war with reciprocal tariffs and port fees disrupting global commerce, the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot signaling further rate cuts amid labor market concerns, and the ongoing government shutdown delaying critical economic data. The dollar index is trading in a technical range between 97.00-100.00, with immediate support at 98.50 and resistance at 99.50.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 16–17, 2025, meeting, marking the first policy rate adjustment since December 2024 after five consecutive holds.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objective of achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, acknowledging recent labor market softening and continued tariff-driven price pressures.
• Policymakers expressed elevated concern about downside risks to growth, citing a stalling labor market, modest job creation, and an unemployment rate drifting up toward 4.4%. At the same time, inflation remains above target, with CPI at 3.2% and core inflation at 3.1% as of August 2025; higher energy and food prices, largely attributable to tariffs, continue to weigh on headline measures.
• Although economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter, the growth outlook has weakened. Q3 GDP growth is estimated near 1.0% (annualized), with full-year 2025 GDP growth guidance revised to 1.2%, reflecting slowing household consumption and tighter financial conditions.
• In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% for the year, with headline PCE inflation revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2025. The Committee anticipates core PCE inflation to remain stubborn, requiring sustained vigilance and a flexible approach to risk management.
• The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach and openness to further adjustments should employment or inflation deviate meaningfully from current forecasts. Several members dissented, either advocating a larger 50-basis-point cut or preferring no adjustment at this meeting, revealing heightened divergence within the Committee.
• Balance sheet reduction continues at a measured pace. The monthly Treasury redemption cap remains at $5B and the agency MBS cap at $35B, as the Board aims to support orderly market conditions in the face of evolving global and domestic uncertainty.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s historic rally to $4,250 reflects a perfect storm of bullish factors: escalating U.S.–China trade tensions with threatened 100% tariffs, near-certain Federal Reserve rate cuts projected for October and December (with 98% and 95% probabilities, respectively), a three-week U.S. government shutdown fueling policy uncertainty, record ETF inflows totaling $64 billion year-to-date, and sustained central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar faces significant downward pressure entering October 17, 2025, primarily driven by unexpectedly weak employment data that has sparked aggressive repricing of RBA rate cut expectations. With unemployment at near four-year highs and markets now pricing 76% odds of a November rate cut, the AUD’s near-term outlook appears challenged.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at its October meeting on 29–30 September 2025, marking a second consecutive pause after August’s 25 basis point cut. The move affirms the Bank’s data-dependent approach as inflation trends within the target range.
• Inflation indicators remained stable through September, with headline CPI likely anchoring near 2.2%—comfortably within the 2–3% band. Insurance and housing costs remain sticky but are increasingly offset by moderation in discretionary goods.
• Trimmed mean inflation is estimated at around 2.8%, signaling underlying pressures remain contained. The Board continues to flag food and energy price volatility as short-term risks, though the broader disinflation narrative holds.
• Global conditions remain a source of uncertainty. U.S. policy expectations and uneven growth in China continue to weigh on commodities, even as trade disruptions have eased marginally since mid-year.
• Domestic growth shows resilience in the housing and services sectors, though manufacturing remains subdued. Household incomes have stabilized, but consumption remains only modest, capped by high borrowing costs.
• The labor market maintains relative tightness, though job growth has slowed notably since the first half of the year. Underutilization has ticked higher, but overall employment conditions remain supportive.
• Wage growth is plateauing, reflecting softer labor demand. Weak productivity continues to keep unit labor costs elevated, underscoring a medium-term concern highlighted repeatedly by the RBA.
• Household consumption prospects remain fragile. The combination of high rents and weak discretionary appetite suggests risks of a consumer-led slowdown in Q4 if confidence fails to rebound.
• The Board reiterated that subdued household spending poses risks to business sentiment and may dampen investment and job creation in the coming quarters.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive. The RBA balanced confidence in inflation progress with caution around global and domestic demand risks, keeping further adjustments conditional on incoming data.
• The Bank reaffirmed its dual commitment to price stability and full employment, noting its readiness to act should conditions shift markedly.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar remains near six-month lows around 0.5720-0.5740 against the US Dollar, caught between domestic monetary policy easing and external headwinds. The RBNZ’s surprise 50 basis point rate cut to 2.50% on October 8, with signals of further easing ahead, has weighed heavily on the currency. While broad US dollar weakness and easing food inflation provide some offset, ongoing US-China trade tensions and New Zealand’s weak economic growth keep pressure on the Kiwi.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.00% on 20 August 2025, marking a three-year low and continuing the easing cycle after July’s pause. The vote was split 4-2, with two members advocating a 50-basis-point cut, highlighting diverging views within the Committee.
• Policymakers indicated that significant uncertainty and a stalling economic recovery prompted this move, leaving the door open for further rate cuts later in the year, with a possible trough around 2.5% by December.
• Annual consumer price index inflation rose to 2.7% in the June quarter and is expected to reach 3% for the September quarter—at the upper end of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band—but medium-term expectations remain anchored near the 2% midpoint.
• Despite the near-term uptick, headline inflation is projected to return toward 2% by mid-2026, as tradables inflation pressures ease and significant spare capacity continues to dampen domestic price momentum.
• Domestic financial conditions are broadly aligning with MPC expectations, as lower wholesale rates have translated into reduced borrowing costs for households. However, declining consumption and investment demand, higher unemployment, and subdued wage growth reflect ongoing economic slack.
• GDP growth stalled in the second quarter of 2025, contrasting with earlier projections. High-frequency indicators point to continued weakness driven by rising prices for essentials, weakening household savings, and constrained business lending.
• The MPC cautioned that ongoing global tariff uncertainties and policy shifts, especially recent changes in US trade regulations, could amplify market volatility and present both upside and downside risks to New Zealand’s recovery.
• Subject to medium-term inflation pressures continuing to ease as projected, the MPC signaled scope for further OCR cuts, possibly down to 2.5% by year-end, consistent with the latest Monetary Policy Statement outlook.
• The next meeting is on 22 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen faces a complex environment shaped by domestic political instability that has paradoxically provided some support by tempering fiscal expansion expectations. While hawkish BOJ member Tamura continues pushing for rate hikes with the October 29-30 meeting approaching, market expectations for near-term tightening have diminished amid political uncertainty and disappointing wage data. The yen has regained safe-haven appeal from escalating US-China trade tensions and global risk aversion, helping it recover from eight-month lows near 153 per dollar.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 17 September, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
• The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
• The BOJ will continue its gradual reduction of monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). The scheduled amount of long-term government bond purchases remains unchanged from the prior decision, with a quarterly reduction pace of about ¥400 billion through March 2026 and about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026 onward, aiming for a purchase level near ¥2 trillion in January to March 2027.
• Japan’s economy continues to show a moderate recovery, with household consumption supported by rising incomes, although corporate activity has softened somewhat. Overseas economies remain on a moderate growth path, with the impact of global trade policies still weighing on Japan’s export and industrial production outlook.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices (excluding fresh food) remains in the mid-3% range. Inflationary pressures remain broad-based, with persistent cost-push factors in food and energy, alongside solid wage pass-through. However, input cost pressures from past import surges are showing early signs of easing.
• Short-term inflation momentum may moderate as cost-push effects diminish, though rent increases and service-related price gains tied to labor shortages are likely to provide support. Inflation expectations among firms and households continue a gradual upward drift.
• Looking ahead, the economy is projected to grow at a slower-than-trend pace in the near term due to external demand softness and cautious corporate investment plans. However, accommodative financial conditions and steady increases in real labor income are expected to underpin domestic demand.
• In the medium term, as overseas economies recover and global trade stabilizes, Japan’s growth potential is likely to improve. With persistent labor market tightness and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations, core inflation is projected to remain on a gradual upward trend, converging toward the 2% price stability target in the latter half of the projection horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 30 to 31 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices closed the week near five-month lows around $58-$62 per barrel, pressured by a confluence of bearish factors. US crude inventories rose for the third consecutive week, significantly exceeding expectations and signaling weak demand. The IEA’s warning of a record 4 million bpd surplus in 2026, driven by OPEC+ production increases and robust non-OPEC supply, dominates the bearish outlook. Escalating US-China trade tensions threaten to further curtail demand from the world’s largest consumers, with analysts warning Brent could fall below $50 if conditions deteriorate

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 17 October 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down -1.38%, Shanghai Composite down -1.00%, Hang Seng down -1.77% ASX down 0.79%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,369.11 (1.50%), Silver at $53.298 (0.00%), Brent Oil at $61.03 (-0.05%), WTI Oil at $57.45 (-0.02%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 3.945, UK 10-year yield at 4.5040, Germany 10-year yield at 2.5694

News & Data:

• (USD) Crude Oil Inventories  3.5M  to 0.3M expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are trading mostly lower on Friday, mirroring the weak cues from Wall Street overnight as concerns over escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and renewed worries about the U.S. banking sector weighed on sentiment. The recent bankruptcies of auto-related firms First Brands and Tricolor Holdings triggered risk aversion, while traders also engaged in profit-taking after recent gains.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 is down 0.71 percent at 9,003.80, dragged by losses in technology and energy stocks. Major miners like BHP and Rio Tinto are lower, while Fortescue is slightly higher. Tech firms such as Block and Zip are down over 2 percent each. Among banks, ANZ, NAB and Westpac are losing nearly 1 percent. Gold miners, however, are outperforming, led by Newmont and Northern Star Resources.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is down 0.93 percent to 47,827.31, pressured by declines in automakers and tech heavyweights. SoftBank is losing nearly 3 percent, while Toyota and Honda are weaker. Banking majors like Sumitomo Mitsui and Mitsubishi UFJ are also down more than 2 percent each.

Elsewhere, Hong Kong is up 1.5 percent, while most other Asian markets are lower. On Wall Street, major indexes closed in the red overnight, and oil prices fell sharply on inventory concerns, with WTI crude slipping to $57.30 per barrel.

Upcoming Events: 

• 09:00 AM GMT – EUR Final Core CPI y/y
• 09:00 AM GMT – EUR Final CPI y/y

The post Friday 17th October 2025: Asian Markets Decline Amid U.S.-China Trade Tensions and Banking Sector Worries first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 October 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
The Asian session on October 17 was dominated by global credit concerns, falling bond yields, and a shift toward defensive assets. Gold and the yen gained as traders pared risk exposure following Wall Street’s sell-off, while oil and Asian equities faced broad weakness. Currency markets reflected growing conviction that U.S. rate cuts might come sooner than expected, reinforcing pressure on the U.S. dollar.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
U.S. equities fell sharply on renewed bank credit fears. Gold hit a new record above 4,300 USD/oz; oil dropped near five‑month lows. Yields and the dollar fell ahead of U.S. industrial and housing data. Asia and Europe track Wall Street declines cautiously; India holds firm on domestic optimism. Traders today are watching U.S. macro data, bank earnings (AXP, Truist, Fifth Third, Schlumberger), and further developments from IMF/World Bank meetings.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar is facing its biggest weekly decline since July, pressured by multiple headwinds, including escalating US-China trade tensions over rare earth export controls, an extended government shutdown entering its third week that could cost up to $15 billion per day, and growing Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The Dollar Index fell to 98.22, down 0.6% for the week, as the greenback weakened against major currencies, including the yen (USD/JPY at 150.12) and euro (EUR/USD at 1.1709).

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 16–17, 2025, meeting, marking the first policy rate adjustment since December 2024 after five consecutive holds.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objective of achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, acknowledging recent labor market softening and continued tariff-driven price pressures.
• Policymakers expressed elevated concern about downside risks to growth, citing a stalling labor market, modest job creation, and an unemployment rate drifting up toward 4.4%. At the same time, inflation remains above target, with CPI at 3.2% and core inflation at 3.1% as of August 2025; higher energy and food prices, largely attributable to tariffs, continue to weigh on headline measures.
• Although economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter, the growth outlook has weakened. Q3 GDP growth is estimated near 1.0% (annualized), with full-year 2025 GDP growth guidance revised to 1.2%, reflecting slowing household consumption and tighter financial conditions.
• In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% for the year, with headline PCE inflation revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2025. The Committee anticipates core PCE inflation to remain stubborn, requiring sustained vigilance and a flexible approach to risk management.
• The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach and openness to further adjustments should employment or inflation deviate meaningfully from current forecasts. Several members dissented, either advocating a larger 50-basis-point cut or preferring no adjustment at this meeting, revealing heightened divergence within the Committee.
• Balance sheet reduction continues at a measured pace. The monthly Treasury redemption cap remains at $5B and the agency MBS cap at $35B, as the Board aims to support orderly market conditions in the face of evolving global and domestic uncertainty
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold concluded Friday, near record highs around $4,360 per ounce, marking its best weekly performance in five years with an 8.7% gain. The rally has been driven by a perfect storm of factors: the ongoing US government shutdown creating economic data uncertainty, near-certain expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in October and December, sharply escalating US-China trade tensions, including Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs, and emerging credit concerns in the US regional banking sector following fraud-related loan disclosures.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro’s performance on October 17 reflects a confluence of positive factors: reduced political risk in France following the government’s survival of a no-confidence vote, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve bolstering rate cut expectations, and confirmation that Eurozone inflation has returned to the ECB’s 2% target. However, structural challenges remain, including weak industrial production, France’s ongoing political instability costing the country valuable growth, and uncertainty surrounding US-China trade relations.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council kept the three key ECB interest rates unchanged at its meeting on September 11, 2025. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. These levels have been maintained after the cuts earlier in 2025, reflecting the Council’s confidence that the current stance is consistent with the price stability mandate.
• Evidence that inflation is running close to the ECB’s medium-term target of 2% supported the decision to hold rates steady. Domestic price pressures are easing as wage growth continues to moderate, and financing conditions remain accommodative. Policymakers reaffirmed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to further policy moves, with no pre-commitment to a predetermined path amid ongoing global and domestic risks.
• Eurosystem staff projections foresee headline inflation averaging 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% in 2027. The 2025 and 2026 forecasts reflect a downward revision, primarily on lower energy costs and exchange rate effects, even as food inflation remains persistent. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) is expected at 2.0% for 2026 and 2027, with only minor changes since prior rounds.
• Real GDP growth in the euro area is projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. A robust first quarter—partly due to firms accelerating exports ahead of anticipated tariff hikes—cushioned a weaker outlook for the remainder of 2025. While business investment continues to face uncertainty from ongoing global trade disputes, especially with the US, government investment and infrastructure spending are expected to provide some support to the outlook.
• Rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market boost household spending. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• Rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market boost household spending. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• All future interest rate decisions will continue to be guided by the integrated assessment of economic and financial data, the inflation outlook, and underlying inflation dynamics, and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission—without any pre-commitment to a specific future rate path.
• The ECB’s Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) portfolios are declining predictably, as maturities have ceased to be reinvested. Balance-sheet normalization continues in line with the ECB’s previously communicated schedule.
• The next meeting is on 29 to 30 October 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc maintains its position as one of 2025’s strongest currencies, supported by persistent safe-haven demand amid US political uncertainty, trade war tensions, and global economic concerns. Trading at 0.7914 per US dollar on October 17, the franc has strengthened 8.47% over the past year. While the Swiss National Bank holds rates at 0% and signals reluctance to return to negative territory, Switzerland’s economic outlook has deteriorated significantly due to punitive 39% US tariffs and the franc’s 12% appreciation. Growth forecasts for 2026 have been cut to just 0.9%, with exports facing substantial headwinds. Despite these domestic challenges, the franc’s safe-haven appeal remains robust, keeping the currency elevated against major peers as global uncertainties persist.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

Sterling is on a positive footing today, supported by UK economic growth and a softer US dollar amidst interest rate speculation and political gridlock. Near-term risks revolve around upcoming UK budget policies and persistent inflation, while technical indicators suggest consolidation with upside potential if resistance levels are breached. The GBP’s performance has been robust compared to other currencies, with most analysts currently viewing dips as buying opportunities within the established trading range.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted on 18 September 2025 by a majority (expected split likely 7–2 or 6–3) to hold the Bank Rate steady at 4.00%, following the August rate cut. Most members cited persistent inflation and mixed indicators on growth and employment, while a minority favored further easing due to the cooling labor market and subdued GDP growth.
• The Committee decided to decrease the pace of quantitative tightening, planning to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases by £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, instead of the prior £100 billion pace, with the gilt balance now standing at nearly £558 billion. This reflects increased volatility in bond markets and a shift to a more gradual approach.
• Headline inflation rose unexpectedly to 3.8% in July and is projected at 4% for September, above the Bank’s 2% target. Price pressures are driven by regulated energy costs and ongoing food price increases. While previous disinflation has been substantial, core inflation remains elevated and sticky.
• The MPC expects headline inflation to remain above target through Q4, with a resumption of the downward trend projected for early 2026 as energy and regulated price pressures abate. The Committee remains watchful for signs of persistent inflation despite previous policy tightening.
• UK GDP growth is stagnant, with business and consumer activity subdued. Recent labor market data show rising unemployment rates (now at 4.7%) and stabilizing wage growth (holding near 5%), indicating slack but continued wage price pressure. The Committee remains cautious amid lackluster demand and soft survey sentiment.
• Pay growth and employment indicators have moderated further, alongside confirmation from business surveys that pay settlements are slowing. The Committee expects wage growth to decelerate significantly through Q4 and the rest of 2025.
• Global uncertainty persists due to volatile energy prices, supply chain disruptions linked to Middle East conflicts, and renewed trade tensions. The MPC remains vigilant in tracking transmission of external cost/wage shocks to UK inflation.
• Risks to inflation are considered two-sided. While subdued domestic growth and softening labor activity suggest scope for easing, persistent inflation requires caution. The MPC anticipates a slow, gradual reduction path in rates, continuing its data-dependent approach with careful adjustment as warranted by economic developments.
• The Committee’s bias remains toward maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance until firmer evidence emerges that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target. All future decisions will remain highly data dependent, with a strong emphasis on evolving demand, inflation expectations, costs, and labor market conditions.
• The next meeting is on 6 November 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bullish 

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar is trading near six-month lows at 1.4044 per US dollar on October 17, 2025, pressured by falling crude oil prices (down to $57.32/barrel), expectations of further Bank of Canada rate cuts, and persistent economic weakness. While September’s strong jobs report has reduced the likelihood of an October 29 rate cut to 25%, elevated unemployment at 7.1% and a 1.6% Q2 GDP contraction continue to signal economic fragility.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council cited continued U.S. tariff volatility and slow progress on trade negotiations as major contributors to ongoing uncertainty. While headline tariffs have not escalated further, the unpredictability of U.S. policy remains a significant risk for Canadian exports and business confidence.
• Uncertainty about U.S. trade policy and recurring tariff threats continued to weigh on growth prospects. The Bank flagged downside risks to the export sector, with survey data indicating ongoing hesitancy among manufacturers and exporters.
• After modest growth in Q1, Canada’s economy slipped into contraction, with GDP shrinking by 0.8% in Q2 and forecast to decrease again by 0.8% in Q3. Economic weakness has been most pronounced in manufacturing and goods-producing sectors affected by trade frictions and softer U.S. demand.
• Early estimates show that growth stabilized in September but remained well below the Bank’s 2% forecast for Q4. Manufacturing output has improved slightly—supported by a modest rebound in petroleum and mining activity—while consumer spending and retail sales were largely flat.
• Consumer spending remained subdued as households continued to limit discretionary purchases amid uncertainty and a slower job market. Housing activity stayed weak, despite earlier government efforts to boost affordability and modest gains in some real estate segments.
• Headline CPI inflation edged up to 1.9% in August, undershooting economist expectations but still showing emerging pressures from shelter and imported goods costs. Core inflation metrics were mixed, though price growth remains just below the Bank’s 2% target.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed its cautious approach, emphasizing that while further rate cuts are possible, the pace will hinge on the path of U.S. tariffs, domestic inflation dynamics, and signs of a sustainable recovery. The Bank remains vigilant against the risk of inflation falling below target in the face of economic slack.
• The next meeting is on 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices hit five-month lows on Friday, with WTI near $57/barrel and Brent around $61/barrel, marking the third straight weekly decline. The bearish momentum stems from multiple factors: a larger-than-expected 3.5 million barrel build in US crude inventories, collapsing refinery utilization rates, and weak demand concerns amid US-China trade tensions. Geopolitical uncertainty intensified with Trump’s announcement of upcoming talks with Putin in Budapest, raising prospects of increased Russian oil supply, while mixed signals about India potentially scaling back Russian crude purchases added volatility.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 October 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 17/10/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Push Higher on Earnings – Nasdaq up 0.6%

US stock indices pushed higher again in trading yesterday after major banks once again reported stronger earnings data, and investors shrugged off concerns about the continuing US shutdown and trade deals. The Dow did slip on the day, down 0.04% to 46,253; however, the S&P and Nasdaq both pushed higher, the S&P up 0.40% to 6,671 and the Nasdaq gaining 0.66% to 22,670. The dollar drifted lower, the DXY losing 0.24% to 99.03, while Treasury yields finished close to flat — the 2-year up 1.7 basis points to 3.497% and the 10-year down just 0.4 of a basis point to 4.028%. Oil prices were mixed, Brent up 0.10% to $62.45, while WTI dropped 0.73% to $58.27 a barrel. Gold, however, continued to drive higher, hitting another fresh record at $4,217.95 before closing up 1.55% at $4,207.48 an ounce.

Dollar Bulls Back in Play

The dollar experienced its best week in two months last week and still remains relatively well bid against most of the majors, with the exception of the yen, which has been playing its own game as Japanese political updates continue to hit the market. The dollar index is still hovering above 99, but traders feel that we could see further moves in the next few days, which could push the dollar into fresh ranges against the majors. Undoubtedly, the return of US data would help, and any positive numbers—especially on the jobs front—would see the dollar appreciate as Fed rate-cut expectations fall.

Earnings numbers for US banks have been positive over the last couple of days, and as one of the only indicators we have on the US economy at the moment, some investors feel these updates are dollar-positive. For now, though, traders are following the recent trend and looking to buy dollars on dips, but expect bigger moves once we have the return of data, with, as usual, a big focus on jobs and inflation numbers.

Busy Day Ahead on the Economic Calendar

It is probably the busiest day of the week on the macroeconomic calendar today, with some key data due out across the sessions and more central banker updates due later in the day. The initial focus in the Asian session will be on Australian markets, with the crucial jobs numbers due out early in the session. The market is expected to see an increase of 20k jobs last month and for the unemployment rate to creep up to 4.3%, but there is plenty of debate as to whether we will see these prints, and traders are expecting volatility around the event.

There is a big data drop out of the UK early in the European session, with the GDP data (exp. +0.1% m/m) the pick of the bunch, and once again, moves in the pound are expected around the event. The New York session does see some US data released despite the ongoing government shutdown, with the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (exp. 8.6) and the Weekly Crude Oil Inventory (exp. +0.3mio) both due out. We also hear from a plethora of Fed and MPC members again, as well as ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem during the session.

The post General Market Analysis – 16/10/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price is currently showing downward momentum after failing to break above the 1st resistance at 99.53, suggesting more downside potential is likely in the short term.

Pivot: 98.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance,  where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 98.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.53
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is demonstrating bullish momentum as it rebounds from the 1st support and establishes above the pivot, indicating a possible continuation to the upside toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1618

Supporting reasons: Identified as a critical breakout and retest zone; price action above this level suggests renewed buying pressure and a shift in short-term sentiment

1st support: 1.1554

Supporting reasons: Identified as a  multi swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1712

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 176.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 174.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 177.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8693

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8657
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8725
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3356

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3269
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3513
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 202.86

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 201.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 202.86
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7992

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7923
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 0.8050
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 150.91

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 148.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 152.47

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance. This  is a significant resistance that could cap further upward movement and coincide with profit-taking zones for bullish positions

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                                

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce off toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.4012

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 1.3919

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4156

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6528

Supporting reasons: Identified as ann overlap zone where any brief bullish recovery could find resistance before resuming the bearish trend.

1st support: 0.6446

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6558

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, this level could cap upside potential in the current bearish structure.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5762

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5698

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5803

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 46182.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 45,774.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 46,854.31

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,344.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 23,935.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,771.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 6,697.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 6,520.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,760.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 115,113.31

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 110,041.57

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 119,828.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,372.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance  that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 3,894.07

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,642.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 60.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 58.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 63.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,141.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 4.059.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,240.44
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistancethat is supported by the 261.8% Fibonacci extension and the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 16th October 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 October 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session was characterized by volatility and mixed sentiment, with the S&P 500 and chipmakers posting gains, while global risk appetite was challenged by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and new sanctions from Beijing.​Gold and other metals attracted safe-haven flows, while equities rebounded on robust earnings. Rate cut expectations were supported by dovish Fed remarks and the effects of the government shutdown, with monetary policy remaining a market focal point.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian markets are poised for a volatile session, driven by data releases, central bank communications, and underlying geopolitical and trade dynamics. Expect AUD and regional FX to react strongly to Australia’s employment data.​Watch UK GDP and related prints for sterling volatility.​​US manufacturing, Fed speakers, and ongoing trade issues will steer global risk sentiment.​​

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Philly Fed manufacturing index (12:30 pm GMT)

FOMC member Waller speaks (1:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar on Thursday is showing bearish momentum amid ongoing government shutdown uncertainty, delayed economic data, and expectations of upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts. Although the Dollar has experienced brief gains from safe-haven flows and rival currency weakness, the overall outlook remains for gradual weakening through late October.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 16–17, 2025, meeting, marking the first policy rate adjustment since December 2024 after five consecutive holds.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objective of achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, acknowledging recent labor market softening and continued tariff-driven price pressures.
• Policymakers expressed elevated concern about downside risks to growth, citing a stalling labor market, modest job creation, and an unemployment rate drifting up toward 4.4%. At the same time, inflation remains above target, with CPI at 3.2% and core inflation at 3.1% as of August 2025; higher energy and food prices, largely attributable to tariffs, continue to weigh on headline measures.
• Although economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter, the growth outlook has weakened. Q3 GDP growth is estimated near 1.0% (annualized), with full-year 2025 GDP growth guidance revised to 1.2%, reflecting slowing household consumption and tighter financial conditions.
• In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% for the year, with headline PCE inflation revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2025. The Committee anticipates core PCE inflation to remain stubborn, requiring sustained vigilance and a flexible approach to risk management.
• The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach and openness to further adjustments should employment or inflation deviate meaningfully from current forecasts. Several members dissented, either advocating a larger 50-basis-point cut or preferring no adjustment at this meeting, revealing heightened divergence within the Committee.
• Balance sheet reduction continues at a measured pace. The monthly Treasury redemption cap remains at $5B and the agency MBS cap at $35B, as the Board aims to support orderly market conditions in the face of evolving global and domestic uncertainty.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Philly Fed manufacturing index (12:30 pm GMT)

FOMC member Waller speaks (1:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold surged to new all-time highs, trading above $4,200 per ounce as safe-haven demand soared amid mounting geopolitical tensions and expectations for further US rate cuts. This marks the ninth straight quarterly gain for gold, continuing its record-breaking rally for the year. The US Federal Reserve is signaling more interest rate cuts, amplifying gold’s role as a hedge against inflation and monetary uncertainty

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Employment change (12:30 am GMT)

Unemployment rate (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

On Thursday, the Australian Dollar stabilized after earlier pressure from global trade disputes and upbeat domestic jobs data. Despite an uptick in unemployment, the resilient job growth supported a partial recovery, while broader sentiment remains cautious on extended trade tensions and global monetary policy outlook. The AUD’s immediate prospects will depend on upcoming central bank commentary and international data releases.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at its October meeting on 29–30 September 2025, marking a second consecutive pause after August’s 25 basis point cut. The move affirms the Bank’s data-dependent approach as inflation trends within the target range.
• Inflation indicators remained stable through September, with headline CPI likely anchoring near 2.2%—comfortably within the 2–3% band. Insurance and housing costs remain sticky but are increasingly offset by moderation in discretionary goods.
• Trimmed mean inflation is estimated at around 2.8%, signaling underlying pressures remain contained. The Board continues to flag food and energy price volatility as short-term risks, though the broader disinflation narrative holds.
• Global conditions remain a source of uncertainty. U.S. policy expectations and uneven growth in China continue to weigh on commodities, even as trade disruptions have eased marginally since mid-year.
• Domestic growth shows resilience in the housing and services sectors, though manufacturing remains subdued. Household incomes have stabilized, but consumption remains only modest, capped by high borrowing costs.
• The labor market maintains relative tightness, though job growth has slowed notably since the first half of the year. Underutilization has ticked higher, but overall employment conditions remain supportive.
• Wage growth is plateauing, reflecting softer labor demand. Weak productivity continues to keep unit labor costs elevated, underscoring a medium-term concern highlighted repeatedly by the RBA.
• Household consumption prospects remain fragile. The combination of high rents and weak discretionary appetite suggests risks of a consumer-led slowdown in Q4 if confidence fails to rebound.
• The Board reiterated that subdued household spending poses risks to business sentiment and may dampen investment and job creation in the coming quarters.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive. The RBA balanced confidence in inflation progress with caution around global and domestic demand risks, keeping further adjustments conditional on incoming data.
• The Bank reaffirmed its dual commitment to price stability and full employment, noting its readiness to act should conditions shift markedly.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The NZD is weak as investors react to dovish signals from the RBNZ, a challenging export outlook, and global economic uncertainty. Downside risks remain with technical indicators and macro conditions favoring continued pressure, although a bullish correction is possible if resistance levels are reclaimed. The latest fall stems from the RBNZ’s recent 50 basis point rate cut to 2.5%, signaling risk of further monetary easing as New Zealand’s economic outlook remains fragile.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.00% on 20 August 2025, marking a three-year low and continuing the easing cycle after July’s pause. The vote was split 4-2, with two members advocating a 50-basis-point cut, highlighting diverging views within the Committee.
• Policymakers indicated that significant uncertainty and a stalling economic recovery prompted this move, leaving the door open for further rate cuts later in the year, with a possible trough around 2.5% by December.
• Annual consumer price index inflation rose to 2.7% in the June quarter and is expected to reach 3% for the September quarter—at the upper end of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band—but medium-term expectations remain anchored near the 2% midpoint.
• Despite the near-term uptick, headline inflation is projected to return toward 2% by mid-2026, as tradables inflation pressures ease and significant spare capacity continues to dampen domestic price momentum.
• Domestic financial conditions are broadly aligning with MPC expectations, as lower wholesale rates have translated into reduced borrowing costs for households. However, declining consumption and investment demand, higher unemployment, and subdued wage growth reflect ongoing economic slack.
• GDP growth stalled in the second quarter of 2025, contrasting with earlier projections. High-frequency indicators point to continued weakness driven by rising prices for essentials, weakening household savings, and constrained business lending.
• The MPC cautioned that ongoing global tariff uncertainties and policy shifts, especially recent changes in US trade regulations, could amplify market volatility and present both upside and downside risks to New Zealand’s recovery.
• Subject to medium-term inflation pressures continuing to ease as projected, the MPC signaled scope for further OCR cuts, possibly down to 2.5% by year-end, consistent with the latest Monetary Policy Statement outlook.
• The next meeting is on 22 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

Today, the Japanese Yen consolidated recent gains as political turmoil in Tokyo fostered uncertainty, while global safe-haven demand intensified due to rising trade tensions and the ongoing US fiscal gridlock. The Bank of Japan’s policy stance and technical resistance levels in USD/JPY have created a temporary pause in Yen depreciation, with markets closely watching upcoming economic data and policy developments for the next decisive move.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 17 September, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
• The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
• The BOJ will continue its gradual reduction of monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). The scheduled amount of long-term government bond purchases remains unchanged from the prior decision, with a quarterly reduction pace of about ¥400 billion through March 2026 and about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026 onward, aiming for a purchase level near ¥2 trillion in January to March 2027.
• Japan’s economy continues to show a moderate recovery, with household consumption supported by rising incomes, although corporate activity has softened somewhat. Overseas economies remain on a moderate growth path, with the impact of global trade policies still weighing on Japan’s export and industrial production outlook.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices (excluding fresh food) remains in the mid-3% range. Inflationary pressures remain broad-based, with persistent cost-push factors in food and energy, alongside solid wage pass-through. However, input cost pressures from past import surges are showing early signs of easing.
• Short-term inflation momentum may moderate as cost-push effects diminish, though rent increases and service-related price gains tied to labor shortages are likely to provide support. Inflation expectations among firms and households continue a gradual upward drift.
• Looking ahead, the economy is projected to grow at a slower-than-trend pace in the near term due to external demand softness and cautious corporate investment plans. However, accommodative financial conditions and steady increases in real labor income are expected to underpin domestic demand.
• In the medium term, as overseas economies recover and global trade stabilizes, Japan’s growth potential is likely to improve. With persistent labor market tightness and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations, core inflation is projected to remain on a gradual upward trend, converging toward the 2% price stability target in the latter half of the projection horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 30 to 31 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are under persistent pressure today, October 16, 2025, hovering at multi-month lows due to oversupply fears and weakening demand expectations amid US-China trade friction. Markets are watching for signs of inventory drawdowns or geopolitical de-escalation before confidence and prices rebound.​ US Oil Inventories: Expectations remain for another weekly build in US crude oil inventories, sustained by record-high US production and robust refinery demand, though gasoline stocks are forecasted to decline.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 October 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 16 October 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
During today’s Asia session, soft Australian labor data led to a slide in the AUD and a rally in the ASX 200, as traders positioned for a dovish shift by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Gold and yen saw safe-haven demand amid lingering US-China tensions. Broader Asian equities advanced on the back of a global tech surge and positive risk sentiment from Wall Street.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Asian stock markets rallied overnight, buoyed by strong U.S. tech and semiconductor sector performance and upbeat bank earnings, indicating robust business activity in the U.S. Gold prices soared to a new record, reflecting elevated safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty, while the U.S. dollar is under pressure for a third consecutive day.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Philly Fed manufacturing index (12:30 pm GMT)

FOMC member Waller speaks (1:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Today, the US Dollar faces continued weakness driven by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, disappointing economic data, and persistent political uncertainty in Washington. Manufacturing data is in focus, and traders are watching for signals from FOMC officials that could influence short-term volatility, with the broader trend remaining bearish for the USD through late October.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 16–17, 2025, meeting, marking the first policy rate adjustment since December 2024 after five consecutive holds.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objective of achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, acknowledging recent labor market softening and continued tariff-driven price pressures.
• Policymakers expressed elevated concern about downside risks to growth, citing a stalling labor market, modest job creation, and an unemployment rate drifting up toward 4.4%. At the same time, inflation remains above target, with CPI at 3.2% and core inflation at 3.1% as of August 2025; higher energy and food prices, largely attributable to tariffs, continue to weigh on headline measures.
• Although economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter, the growth outlook has weakened. Q3 GDP growth is estimated near 1.0% (annualized), with full-year 2025 GDP growth guidance revised to 1.2%, reflecting slowing household consumption and tighter financial conditions.
• In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% for the year, with headline PCE inflation revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2025. The Committee anticipates core PCE inflation to remain stubborn, requiring sustained vigilance and a flexible approach to risk management.
• The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach and openness to further adjustments should employment or inflation deviate meaningfully from current forecasts. Several members dissented, either advocating a larger 50-basis-point cut or preferring no adjustment at this meeting, revealing heightened divergence within the Committee.
• Balance sheet reduction continues at a measured pace. The monthly Treasury redemption cap remains at $5B and the agency MBS cap at $35B, as the Board aims to support orderly market conditions in the face of evolving global and domestic uncertainty
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Philly Fed manufacturing index (12:30 pm GMT)

FOMC member Waller speaks (1:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold set a new all-time high near $4,237/oz on October 16, 2025, amid global risk aversion, Fed rate cut expectations, and a weaker dollar. While technicals show overbought conditions, sentiment remains decisively bullish, and price forecasts continue to point upward, barring any sharp reversal in U.S. monetary policy or the global macro backdrop.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde speaks (4:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro center around heightened market volatility linked to global trade tensions, upcoming economic releases, and new EU initiatives on energy and climate policy. European stock index futures are indicating a downward trend this morning, reflecting continued uncertainty and rebalancing after sharp moves related to comments by President Donald and renewed “trade war” concerns with Beijing. Major Eurozone data releases today include the trade balance for August, while investors are also watching knock-on effects from global events, including UK GDP figures, Italy’s CPI, and policy updates elsewhere.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council kept the three key ECB interest rates unchanged at its meeting on September 11, 2025. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. These levels have been maintained after the cuts earlier in 2025, reflecting the Council’s confidence that the current stance is consistent with the price stability mandate.
• Evidence that inflation is running close to the ECB’s medium-term target of 2% supported the decision to hold rates steady. Domestic price pressures are easing as wage growth continues to moderate, and financing conditions remain accommodative. Policymakers reaffirmed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to further policy moves, with no pre-commitment to a predetermined path amid ongoing global and domestic risks.
• Eurosystem staff projections foresee headline inflation averaging 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% in 2027. The 2025 and 2026 forecasts reflect a downward revision, primarily on lower energy costs and exchange rate effects, even as food inflation remains persistent. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) is expected at 2.0% for 2026 and 2027, with only minor changes since prior rounds.
• Real GDP growth in the euro area is projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. A robust first quarter—partly due to firms accelerating exports ahead of anticipated tariff hikes—cushioned a weaker outlook for the remainder of 2025. While business investment continues to face uncertainty from ongoing global trade disputes, especially with the US, government investment and infrastructure spending are expected to provide some support to the outlook.
• Rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market boost household spending. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• Rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market boost household spending. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• All future interest rate decisions will continue to be guided by the integrated assessment of economic and financial data, the inflation outlook, and underlying inflation dynamics, and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission—without any pre-commitment to a specific future rate path.
• The ECB’s Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) portfolios are declining predictably, as maturities have ceased to be reinvested. Balance-sheet normalization continues in line with the ECB’s previously communicated schedule.
• The next meeting is on 29 to 30 October 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc has softened slightly but remains a haven due to ongoing global uncertainties. Major domestic Swiss data or events are scheduled to drive significant CHF moves today. Global themes like US-China relations, US shutdowns, and central bank policy expectations are the primary market movers this session. Today’s activity for CHF features mild weakness amid broader risk sentiment, but safe-haven flows remain supportive, and the SNB is unlikely to adjust rates soon.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

GDP m/m (6:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British Pound is holding near 1.34 against the dollar as traders await the GDP release, balancing improved sentiment from a weaker USD against lingering domestic pressures from soft labor data and looming UK fiscal tightening. Technicals suggest range-bound trade in the short term, with market focus on whether today’s data will provoke a break above key resistance levels or reignite downside momentum.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted on 18 September 2025 by a majority (expected split likely 7–2 or 6–3) to hold the Bank Rate steady at 4.00%, following the August rate cut. Most members cited persistent inflation and mixed indicators on growth and employment, while a minority favored further easing due to the cooling labor market and subdued GDP growth.
• The Committee decided to decrease the pace of quantitative tightening, planning to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases by £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, instead of the prior £100 billion pace, with the gilt balance now standing at nearly £558 billion. This reflects increased volatility in bond markets and a shift to a more gradual approach.
• Headline inflation rose unexpectedly to 3.8% in July and is projected at 4% for September, above the Bank’s 2% target. Price pressures are driven by regulated energy costs and ongoing food price increases. While previous disinflation has been substantial, core inflation remains elevated and sticky.
• The MPC expects headline inflation to remain above target through Q4, with a resumption of the downward trend projected for early 2026 as energy and regulated price pressures abate. The Committee remains watchful for signs of persistent inflation despite previous policy tightening.
• UK GDP growth is stagnant, with business and consumer activity subdued. Recent labor market data show rising unemployment rates (now at 4.7%) and stabilizing wage growth (holding near 5%), indicating slack but continued wage price pressure. The Committee remains cautious amid lackluster demand and soft survey sentiment.
• Pay growth and employment indicators have moderated further, alongside confirmation from business surveys that pay settlements are slowing. The Committee expects wage growth to decelerate significantly through Q4 and the rest of 2025.
• Global uncertainty persists due to volatile energy prices, supply chain disruptions linked to Middle East conflicts, and renewed trade tensions. The MPC remains vigilant in tracking transmission of external cost/wage shocks to UK inflation.
• Risks to inflation are considered two-sided. While subdued domestic growth and softening labor activity suggest scope for easing, persistent inflation requires caution. The MPC anticipates a slow, gradual reduction path in rates, continuing its data-dependent approach with careful adjustment as warranted by economic developments.
• The Committee’s bias remains toward maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance until firmer evidence emerges that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target. All future decisions will remain highly data dependent, with a strong emphasis on evolving demand, inflation expectations, costs, and labor market conditions.
• The next meeting is on 6 November 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

BOC Gov Macklem Speaks (5:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been relatively stable today, holding below the 1.4050 level against the US Dollar amidst ongoing US-China trade tensions and shifting investor sentiment. Market attention is also focused on Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem’s scheduled speech later today, which could provide fresh policy signals or economic insights impacting the CAD.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council cited continued U.S. tariff volatility and slow progress on trade negotiations as major contributors to ongoing uncertainty. While headline tariffs have not escalated further, the unpredictability of U.S. policy remains a significant risk for Canadian exports and business confidence.
• Uncertainty about U.S. trade policy and recurring tariff threats continued to weigh on growth prospects. The Bank flagged downside risks to the export sector, with survey data indicating ongoing hesitancy among manufacturers and exporters.
• After modest growth in Q1, Canada’s economy slipped into contraction, with GDP shrinking by 0.8% in Q2 and forecast to decrease again by 0.8% in Q3. Economic weakness has been most pronounced in manufacturing and goods-producing sectors affected by trade frictions and softer U.S. demand.
• Early estimates show that growth stabilized in September but remained well below the Bank’s 2% forecast for Q4. Manufacturing output has improved slightly—supported by a modest rebound in petroleum and mining activity—while consumer spending and retail sales were largely flat.
• Consumer spending remained subdued as households continued to limit discretionary purchases amid uncertainty and a slower job market. Housing activity stayed weak, despite earlier government efforts to boost affordability and modest gains in some real estate segments.
• Headline CPI inflation edged up to 1.9% in August, undershooting economist expectations but still showing emerging pressures from shelter and imported goods costs. Core inflation metrics were mixed, though price growth remains just below the Bank’s 2% target.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed its cautious approach, emphasizing that while further rate cuts are possible, the pace will hinge on the path of U.S. tariffs, domestic inflation dynamics, and signs of a sustainable recovery. The Bank remains vigilant against the risk of inflation falling below target in the face of economic slack.
• The next meeting is on 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are rebounding slightly after major geopolitical news, especially India’s move to reduce Russian imports in response to U.S. pressure. However, broader market conditions remain bearish due to oversupply risks and sluggish demand, with inventories climbing and global economic uncertainty persisting. Brent crude trading near $62.40 and WTI near $58.86 per barrel, both up about 1% from previous lows due to geopolitical developments.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 16 October 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.08%, Shanghai Composite up 0.10%, Hang Seng down -0.52% ASX up 0.81%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,248.79 (1.12%), Silver at $52.375 (1.94%), Brent Oil at $62.48 (0.92%), WTI Oil at $58.87 (1.03%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.027, UK 10-year yield at 4.5480, Germany 10-year yield at 2.5580

News & Data:

• (CAD) Manufacturing Sales m/m  -1.0%  to -1.5% expected
• (CAD) Wholesale Sales m/m  -1.2%  to -1.3% expected

Markets Update:

Asian markets traded higher Thursday, following mixed cues from Wall Street overnight and comments from U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell that hinted at another potential rate cut as traders weighed the impact of escalating U.S.-China trade friction. Markets had closed mostly higher Wednesday.

Powell warned the slow pass-through of tariffs risks becoming persistent inflation, reinforcing expectations for further easing. With the release of some data postponed amid the U.S. government shutdown, markets are watching remarks from several Fed officials for guidance.

Australia led gains, with the S&P/ASX 200 rising to record territory above 9,050. The index was up about 1.05% at 9,085.20 after touching 9,109.70 earlier, while the All Ordinaries climbed near 9,389.80. Gold miners, energy and financials drove gains, offsetting weakness in technology. Major miners BHP and Rio Tinto were slightly higher; Mineral Resources and Fortescue slipped. Oil and energy stocks were broadly firmer. AMP jumped after a quarterly rise in assets under management.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 extended gains, trading above 48,000 as financials, automakers and tech stocks advanced. SoftBank and select exporters rallied, though some names retreated. Japan reported a monthly fall in core machinery orders, weighing on industrial names.

Elsewhere, South Korea and Taiwan outperformed, and U.S. equities showed volatile swings with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing higher ahead of mixed European trade.

Upcoming Events: 

• 04:00 PM GMT – USD Crude Oil Inventories

The post Thursday 16th October 2025: Asian Markets Advance on Fed Rate Cut Hopes Amid U.S.-China Trade Tensions first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.