The post Ex-Dividend 12/01/2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 98.74

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.07
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1708

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1643

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1762

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 183.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 181.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 184.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8707

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8642
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8746
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3489

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3421
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3549
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 211.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 208.94
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 212.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7966

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7907
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8027
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 156.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 155.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 157.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                     

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3800

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3713

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3890

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6722

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.6673

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6756

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5792

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5743

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5849

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 48,844.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 48,371.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 49,541.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 24,687.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 24,203.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,501.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,892.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,823.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,965.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 91,670.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 86,763.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 94,836.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 3,051.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 2.909.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,205.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 56.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 55.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 58.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,495.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,404.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,549.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Friday 9h January 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.15%, Shanghai Composite up 0.30%, Hang Seng down 0.07% ASX down 0.06%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,473.89 (0.30%), Silver at $76.280 (1.49%), Brent Oil at $62.35 (0.58%), WTI Oil at $58.08 (0.54%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.178, UK 10-year yield at 4.3990, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8289

News & Data:

• (USD) Unemployment Claims 208K to 213K expected

Markets Update:

Asian stocks traded mostly higher in cautious dealings on Friday as investors awaited the release of crucial U.S. jobs data and a Supreme Court decision on the legality of President Donald Trump’s broad tariff measures. The employment report is expected to provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook, with markets currently pricing in at least two quarter-point rate cuts in 2026.

The dollar strengthened after the U.S. Senate moved forward with a resolution aimed at limiting the president’s authority to undertake additional military action against Venezuela. Adding to policy developments, President Trump ordered the purchase of $200 billion worth of mortgage bonds in an effort to ease housing costs by pushing interest rates lower.

Gold edged slightly lower to around $4,470 an ounce in Asian trade. Meanwhile, WTI crude futures extended gains after surging more than 3 percent overnight on fears of supply disruptions. Concerns stemmed from potential Russia-related sanctions, the seizure of a Russian oil tanker by U.S. authorities, unrest in Iran, nationalization moves in Iraq, and a drone attack on a Russia-bound tanker near Turkey’s Black Sea coast.

China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.6 percent after data showed consumer inflation in December accelerated at the fastest pace in nearly three years, driven largely by higher food prices. Producer prices, however, fell 1.9 percent year-on-year, reinforcing expectations of further policy support.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.2 percent, led by technology stocks. Japan’s Nikkei jumped nearly 1 percent after China reassured that export controls on dual-use items would not affect civilian use. South Korea’s Kospi was flat after five straight sessions of gains, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.2 percent for a third day. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX-50 was little changed.

Overnight, U.S. markets ended mixed as losses in major technology stocks offset gains in defense shares. European stocks also finished mixed, with modest declines in the broader region despite late-session support.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Non-Farm Employment Change
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Rate
• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD Employment Change
• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD Unemployment Rate

The post Friday 9h January 2026: Asian Stocks Edge Higher as Markets Await Key U.S. Jobs Data and Policy Developments first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 09 January 2026

What happened in the Asia session?
China’s CPI data dominated the Asia session, showing inflation at a near three-year high of 0.8% y/y with easing PPI deflation, boosting hopes for demand recovery but underscoring need for more stimulus amid ongoing producer weakness; this spurred modest rebounds in Nikkei (+0.69%) and Hang Seng (+0.21%), while weighing on Kospi (-0.18%) and pressuring AUD, gold, and select equities ahead of US payrolls and tariff developments.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Traders prioritize U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (exp. 66K), Unemployment Rate (4.5%), and wage growth at 13:30 GMT, which could sway Fed expectations amid a cooling labor market, while earlier Eurozone retail sales (0.1% M/M) and German IP (0.0%) set the tone for ECB policy hints. Markets digest yesterday’s stock dips, oil rallies, and Trump’s defence boost, lifting shares like Lockheed Martin, with gold at $4,425 poised for gains and tariff fears pressuring commodities.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Average Hourly Earnings m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Non-Farm Employment Change (1:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (1:30 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (3:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. dollar index rose modestly by 0.26% to 98.936, amid a weakening euro at $1.165 and British pound at $1.3431, while gaining ground against the yen at 156.97, Swiss franc at 0.7995, Canadian dollar at 1.3868, and Swedish krona at 9.2246. This uptick reflects market positioning ahead of key U.S. data like the Nonfarm Payrolls report expected on January 9, with forecasts around 55k jobs and 4.5% unemployment, alongside ongoing Fed rate cut expectations and policy divergence from the ECB and BoE.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labour market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualised pace in Q2 2025, according to revised estimates. However, Q3 and Q4 are expected to face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions, such as the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signalling a gradual disinflation path. Updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labour market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for  27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Average Hourly Earnings m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Non-Farm Employment Change (1:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (1:30 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (3:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are experiencing a short-term bearish correction around $4,421-$4,477 per troy ounce on January 9, 2026, following a decline of about 0.18-0.79% from recent sessions amid ongoing volatility in precious metals. Analysts anticipate a potential rebound after testing support near $4,395, targeting levels above $4,505 if bullish momentum resumes, though a break below $4,365 could accelerate declines toward $4,305.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro remains under modest pressure near 1.1657 versus the dollar, reflecting softer Eurozone inflation at 2% in December and subdued German data that have dashed ECB rate hike hopes for 2026, per market pricing. While longer-term trends show yearly strength, traders eye upcoming regional inflation releases amid stable forecasts for a gradual EUR/USD recovery to 1.18 this quarter.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 4–5 January 2026 meeting, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40% and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision aligns with the assessment that the current stance supports medium-term price stability, as inflation edges below the 2% target while growth shows resilience amid balanced risks. Markets and commentary indicate value in holding steady, with no fixed path ahead given uncertainties in data.
• Price dynamics remain stable near target levels. Headline HICP inflation stood at 2.1% in November 2025, with projections for 1.9% in 2026 driven by base effects from energy and easing non-energy components. Services inflation persists somewhat elevated but trends toward moderation, alongside contained food pressures.
• December 2025 Eurosystem staff projections confirm headline inflation at 2.1% for 2025, declining to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 before nearing 2% in 2028. Downside risks from soft producer prices and anchored expectations offset potential upsides from geopolitics or fiscal measures.
• Euro area GDP growth remains resilient at subdued levels, with Q3 2025 at 0.3% qoq and forecasts around 1.2-1.4% for 2025-2027. Surveys signal stabilization, bolstered by public investment and external demand against softer private spending.
• The labour market stays tight overall, with unemployment steady at 6.4% through October 2025, near historic lows and solid participation. Real incomes support consumption as inflation eases, with credit conditions aiding gradual household and firm expansion.
• Business sentiment reflects caution over US policy, trade tensions, and tariffs, tempered by easing supply chains and a competitive euro. Export sectors gain a modest lift, while domestic drivers like investment build momentum.
• The Governing Council will continue to make data-dependent decisions meeting by meeting, assessing inflation outlook, underlying trends, and transmission. Both hikes and cuts remain possible based on data, avoiding preset paths amid uncertainties.
• Balance sheet normalization proceeds steadily, with APP and PEPP portfolios shrinking post-reinvestment halts, at a pace deemed suitable without market strain.

​The next meeting is on 4 to 5 February 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc maintains firmness near multi-year highs versus the USD at around 0.7990, supported by safe-haven demand from global uncertainties and stable SNB policy at 0%, though forecasts eye a near-term dip to 0.7930 before recovery; over the past month, CHF has gained 0.11%.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its 11 December 2025 monetary policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, extending the pause that began in September as the Governing Board judges that current settings are sufficient to keep inflation near, but still below, its target while avoiding an unnecessary move into negative rates.
• Recent data show that the tentative rebound in Swiss inflation has stalled, with headline CPI easing from 0.1% year‑on‑year in October to 0.0% in November and core inflation slipping to about 0.4%, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain very weak and that deflation risks, while contained, have not fully disappeared.
• The SNB’s conditional inflation forecast is likely to remain close to the September projections, with inflation still seen averaging roughly 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027 under an unchanged policy rate path, though the latest CPI prints argue for a slightly lower near‑term profile and keep open the option of renewed easing if activity or prices weaken further.
• The global backdrop has deteriorated further, as continuing U.S. tariff actions and softer external demand weigh on world trade, while uncertainty in key European and U.S. markets for Swiss exports persists, leaving the SNB cautious about the growth outlook despite Switzerland’s relatively resilient domestic demand.
• Business and labour-market sentiment in export‑oriented manufacturing remains subdued, with firms reporting pressure on margins from the still‑strong franc and softer foreign orders, although the broader economy is still expected to grow at around 1–1.5% in 2025 and unemployment only drifting up gradually from low levels.
• The SNB continues to stress its willingness to act if deflation risks re‑emerge, reiterating that it can ease policy through renewed rate cuts or targeted foreign‑exchange intervention if necessary, while also highlighting its commitment to transparent communication, including the publication of detailed minutes from recent assessments and ongoing dialogue with international partners on FX policy

The next meeting is on 19 March 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British Pound shows mixed signals today, trading around 1.3418-1.3520 against the USD amid light post-holiday volumes and anticipation of key US Non-Farm Payrolls data later at 13:30 GMT. Forecasts suggest a potential rally test near 1.3505 resistance before a possible decline to 1.3095, though a breakout above 1.3645 could signal stronger gains toward 1.3865.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on 18 December 2025, with the current Bank Rate standing at 4.00 per cent after being held in a close 5–4 vote at the 5 November meeting. Market pricing and analyst commentary point to a high risk of a 25‑basis‑point cut to 3.75 per cent, but this remains conditional on incoming inflation and labour‑market data, so the December note should be treated as pre‑decision guidance rather than an ex‑post summary.
• The BoE is expected to leave its quantitative tightening (QT) framework broadly unchanged through year‑end, maintaining the lower reduction pace in gilt holdings that was set earlier in 2025. Official communications still characterise the existing QT path as consistent with a restrictive stance, with policymakers stressing that balance‑sheet reduction will remain gradual and sensitive to market‑liquidity conditions.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 3.6 per cent year‑on‑year in October 2025, down from 3.8 per cent in September, helped by softer energy and goods prices, though it remains almost twice the 2 per cent target. Underlying inflation pressures, particularly in services, have continued to moderate only slowly, so the MPC’s central projection still envisages inflation moving closer to, but not yet reaching, 3 per cent over the course of 2026, contingent on further normalisation in energy and wage dynamics.
• UK economic activity remains weak heading into the December meeting, with the labour market showing further signs of slackening. The unemployment rate has risen toward just above 5 per cent on the latest three‑month figures to October, while overall regular pay growth has slowed to around the mid‑4 per cent range, reinforcing the view that domestic cost pressures are gradually easing.
• External conditions continue to cloud the outlook, with fragile global growth and fluctuating commodity prices contributing to bouts of financial‑market volatility. The MPC has highlighted that renewed global energy or food price shocks could temporarily slow the pace of disinflation, but such risks are currently judged unlikely to derail the medium‑term downward trajectory for inflation if domestic demand stays subdued.
• The balance of risks around the inflation outlook remains finely poised. Downside risks are linked to persistently weak domestic demand and rising unemployment, while upside risks come from still‑elevated inflation expectations, sticky services inflation, and the possibility that structural changes in the labour market leave less slack than conventional indicators suggest.
• Overall, the MPC’s stance going into December is restrictive but increasingly open to a gradual easing cycle, with any rate cuts expected to be measured and data‑dependent. Policymakers have reiterated that the Bank Rate will need to stay in restrictive territory until they are confident inflation is on a sustainable path back to the 2 per cent target, and they have signalled that the profile of cuts, once started, is likely to be shallow rather than rapid.
• The next meeting is on 5 February 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Strong Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Employment Change (1:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar faced continued pressure, with USD/CAD climbing to 1.3875 due to a stronger US Dollar fueled by geopolitical events like US involvement in Venezuela and softer commodity prices, including oil; the loonie steadied near a one-month low of 1.3888 while traders eyed upcoming jobs reports from both nations and technical supports around 1.3790-1.38, with forecasts pointing to a potential rebound above 1.40 amid Bank of Canada-Fed rate gaps and trade optimism.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council left the target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at its 10 December 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations and signalling that the earlier easing cycle has likely concluded. The Bank noted that while global tariff tensions and trade uncertainty persist, the external backdrop has stabilised somewhat, reducing the need for additional insurance cuts even as world trade remains fragile.
• The Council acknowledged that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and tariffs continues to weigh on business sentiment, but recent data show Canadian manufacturing and goods exports holding up better than anticipated. Surveys cited by the Bank suggest export order books have stopped deteriorating, with firms reporting some rebuilding of backlogs despite still‑cautious capital spending plans.
• Canada’s economy rebounded more strongly than expected in the third quarter, with real GDP expanding at an annualised pace of about 2.6% after a 1.8% contraction in Q2, largely on the back of higher crude exports and government spending. Monthly data show output rising 0.2% in September, though flash estimates point to a softer start to Q4 as some sectors give back earlier gains.
• Service sector activity has firmed, with indicators showing the services PMI back above the 50 threshold and broadening gains in business and professional services. However, consumer-facing categories remain mixed, as still‑elevated price levels and only modest real income growth keep a lid on discretionary spending even as tourism and technology‑related services expand.
• Housing markets have continued to stabilise, with national resale activity and prices edging higher through the autumn alongside the earlier decline in borrowing costs. The Bank noted that while some major urban centres are seeing renewed price pressures, tighter underwriting standards and still‑high affordability constraints are expected to cap the pace of any rebound.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 2.2% year over year in October and is estimated to have remained near that rate in November, keeping it slightly above the 2% target but comfortably within the 1%–3% control range. Core measures have drifted lower, with CPI‑median and CPI‑trim around 3% or below, reinforcing the assessment that underlying price pressures are gradually moderating even as gasoline and some shelter components remain volatile.
• The Governing Council reiterated that the current policy rate is “about the right level” to keep inflation close to target while supporting the economy through a period of structural adjustment, and it signalled a shift away from near‑term easing expectations. While the Bank did not rule out future adjustments, officials stressed that, barring a material downside surprise to growth or inflation, further rate cuts are unlikely before 2026, and attention is now focused on the durability of the recovery and the evolution of core inflation.
• The next meeting is on 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are experiencing downward pressure amid a global supply surplus and geopolitical shifts. Brent crude has fallen below $60 per barrel to around $58–59, while WTI trades near $55–58, reflecting oversupply estimated at 2–3 million barrels per day in early 2026. OPEC+ is signaling readiness for production cuts to counter the surplus from heightened 2025 output by both OPEC and non-OPEC producers.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 09 January 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 09 January 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Weekly initial jobless claims rising slightly to 208,000 (from a revised 200,000), signaling stable low layoffs; nonfarm productivity accelerating to 4.9% annualized in Q3 2025 (up from prior estimates), with unit labor costs falling 1.9%; and the October 2025 trade deficit narrowing sharply to $29.4 billion from $48.1 billion, attributed to tariffs affecting trade flows. These releases reinforced a resilient labor market and improved trade balance amid policy influences like tariffs, tempering rate-cut expectations from the Fed.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Watch for continued volatility in regional indices like the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng, which saw declines on Thursday amid Wall Street pullbacks, tech sector weakness, and escalating China-Japan tensions. Key events on Friday include the U.S. December jobs report, anticipated to shape global risk sentiment and yen movements around USD/JPY’s range of 155.56-157.30, alongside any fresh updates on geopolitical risks from Venezuela.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Average Hourly Earnings m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Non-Farm Employment Change (1:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (1:30 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (3:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar maintains a tentative upward bias following a 9.51% annual decline in 2025, its worst in eight years, as markets await Friday’s nonfarm payrolls and ISM services data that could influence Fed policy expectations. Despite a third straight daily gain into January 8, broader pressures from Fed easing (now at 3.50%-3.75%), ECB policy divergence, and weakening US data like 64k payrolls in November continue to weigh on the greenback.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path. Updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Average Hourly Earnings m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Non-Farm Employment Change (1:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (1:30 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (3:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAUUSD) prices experienced a slight decline, closing around $4,421 USD per troy ounce after dropping 0.79% from the prior day, amid ongoing correction patterns within a broader bullish channel. Forecasts for January 9 suggest continued short-term downward pressure, potentially testing support near $4,255–$4,313, though analysts anticipate rebounds toward higher targets like $4,509 or even above $5,045 if bullish momentum resumes.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded around 0.6693 against the USD on, marking a slight decline of 0.42% from the prior session amid ongoing market volatility. Despite this dip, the AUD has shown resilience, strengthening 0.77% over the past month and 8.03% over the last year, buoyed by expectations of tighter Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy.

​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November 2025 policy meeting, adopting a cautious tone amid a surprise uptick in inflation data for the September quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive pause since the 25 basis point cut in August. The Board attributed some of the inflation rise to temporary factors like higher petrol prices and council rates, but noted signs of more persistent pressures from consumer demand.​
• Policymakers emphasized vigilance on inflation, with trimmed mean inflation expected to remain elevated in the near term before nearing the 2–3% target midpoint by mid-2027. Recent data showed underlying inflation staying above target until at least the second half of 2026, prompting upward revisions to forecasts. Capacity pressures are seen as slightly more pronounced than previously assessed, delaying any easing.
• Headline CPI for the September quarter exceeded expectations, driven partly by temporary items, while underlying measures signal ongoing stickiness. The shift to monthly CPI reporting, with the first full edition in November 2025, will enhance real-time inflation monitoring. Housing and services remain resilient contributors to price pressures.
• Domestic demand shows firmness in services alongside below-trend growth elsewhere, with capacity pressures not expected to ease significantly. The labor market is gradually softening, with unemployment projected to stabilize around 4.4%, though wage growth and productivity dynamics keep unit labor costs a concern. Household spending faces headwinds from high borrowing costs.​
• Global risks include geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility, set against modestly revised-up world growth outlooks. The Board describes its policy as mildly restrictive and data-dependent, balancing inflation control with employment goals. No rate hike was considered despite the inflation surprise.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive to address lingering price stability risks amid household and global vulnerabilities. Communications reaffirm the dual mandate of 2–3% inflation and full employment, with readiness to adjust based on incoming data.​
• Market expectations point to the cash rate holding through early 2026, with a possible modest cut to 3.3% mid-year if inflation eases as forecast. The new monthly CPI data will be key for timely insights.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 2 to 3 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded weakly against the US Dollar, closing around 0.5754 after a 0.32% decline, amid ongoing bearish pressures from technical indicators and global risk aversion. Forecasts for the week of January 5-9 suggest a potential bullish correction toward 0.5825 resistance, but analysts anticipate a rebound lower, targeting below 0.5485 if support at 0.5705 breaks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen experienced mild downward pressure amid ongoing USD strength and anticipation of key US employment data. USD/JPY hovered around 156.80, reflecting a cautious market stance following recent slips toward 157 per dollar driven by geopolitical tensions with China and divergent BOJ-Fed policy outlooks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan will meet on 18–19 December with markets almost fully pricing a 25-basis-point hike, which would raise the short-term policy rate from 0.50% to around 0.75%, as the bank moves further away from its ultra-loose stance while stressing that any tightening will remain gradual and data-dependent.
• The BOJ is expected to continue guiding the uncollateralized overnight call rate in a narrow band around the new policy rate, near 0.75%, while signaling that the pace and timing of any additional hikes will depend on how past increases affect bank lending, corporate financing conditions, and overall economic activity.
• The quarterly path of JGB purchases remains on a pre-announced, gradual taper: outright purchases are being reduced by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, then by roughly ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, with the bank still aiming for JGB purchases to settle near ¥2 trillion in Q1 2027 and retaining flexibility to adjust the pace if market functioning or yield volatility deteriorate.
• Japan’s economy has softened in the near term, with Q3 2025 GDP contracting at an annualized rate of approximately 2.3%, as weaker residential investment and external demand weighed on activity. Meanwhile, business sentiment in manufacturing has recently improved to a roughly four-year high.
• Core consumer inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to around 3.0% year-on-year in October, up from 2.9% in September and remaining above the BOJ’s 2% target, while the “core-core” measure excluding both fresh food and energy rose to about 3.1%, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures.
• In the very near term, some input-cost pressures are easing as earlier import price surges fade, but services inflation linked to labor shortages, along with steady wage gains, continues to support broader price momentum; firms’ and households’ medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored slightly above 2%, keeping short-term inflation risks tilted to the upside.
• For the coming quarters, the BOJ assesses that real growth will likely run below potential as the economy digests tighter financial conditions and past yen depreciation. However, accommodative real rates, positive real wage growth, and improving corporate sentiment are expected to help sustain a modest recovery in private consumption and business investment.
• Over the medium term, as overseas demand stabilizes and domestic labor markets remain tight, the BOJ expects wage settlements and inflation expectations to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory around or slightly above 2%, providing room for further cautious rate normalization as long as financial conditions remain supportive and the recovery is not derailed.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 22 to 23 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets on January 8 stabilized with a rebound driven by U.S. crude inventory draws and focus on limited near-term impacts from Venezuelan supply releases, despite earlier sell-offs to $55.76 lows; abundant global supply from U.S. shale, non-OPEC growth, and OPEC+ continue to pressure prices downward in a structurally balanced but oversupplied environment.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 09 January 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Mixed Again Ahead of Non-Farms – Dow up 0.5%

US equity markets were mixed overnight as investors awaited today’s key US employment data. The Dow Jones added 0.55% to close at 49,266, while the S&P 500 was essentially flat, edging up 0.01% to 6,921, while the Nasdaq lagged, falling 0.44% to 23,480. Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened, with the Dollar Index rising 0.18% to 98.85, and US Treasury yields climbed modestly, with the 2-year up 1.9 basis points to 3.488% and the 10-year up 2.0 basis points to 4.167%. Oil prices surged to two-week highs, reflecting renewed supply concerns from Russia, Iraq, and Iran, as well as ongoing attention on Venezuela. Brent crude jumped 4.67% to $62.78, while WTI rose 4.43% to $58.47. Gold also edged higher, gaining 0.47% to $4,477.65 amid rising geopolitical tensions and defensive flows.

Oil Volatility Set to Continue in the Coming Days and Weeks

Oil prices surged strongly overnight to hit two-week highs as volatility remained high in the market, with geopolitical factors pushing ‘Black Gold’ on big percentage moves on a daily basis at the moment. Developments with the situation in Venezuela are the main driver, but other factors helped to squeeze short positions in trading yesterday, which contributed to the size of the rally. A Russian oil tanker suffered a drone attack in the Black Sea, and Iraq approved plans to nationalise some operations, and these updates increased trader concerns. The market had been pricing in potential increases in supply in the coming months over the last couple of days, but yesterday saw those moves erased swiftly with the fresh updates, and now traders are preparing for more moves in the coming days and weeks. WTI is now sitting just under technical resistance near $59, while support is now back down near Wednesday’s lows at $55.76 a barrel.

First Non-Farm Friday of the Year Ahead for Traders

It is the first Non-Farm Friday of the year and a welcome return to ‘normal’ conditions after the US government shutdown disrupted usual data distribution over the last few months. Traders are bracing for today’s US labour market releases, including Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate, which are expected to drive volatility once New York opens. The headline NFP number is expected to come in around the +60k region, and traders are expecting to see a strong reaction to anything +/- 20k around that number. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.5%. Ahead of the data, trading is likely to remain subdued during the Asian and European sessions.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 09/01/26 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

FX Traders are eagerly anticipating the release of key US employment data on the first Friday of the year this week. Most are happy that we are back to normal procedure with the Non-Farm Payrolls being released as usual on a Friday after a few months of disruption due to the US government shutdown last year. This data set has the propensity to move markets even more strongly this time out, as there will be a lot more faith in the data as the Bureau of Labour Statistics is back to normal running and markets are acknowledging the importance that the FOMC is giving to the jobs market.

The market is expecting that the headline Non-Farm Employment Change number will show an increase of around 60k with the Average Hourly Earnings data set to show a month-on-month increase of 0.3% – up from 0.1% last time out. Last months surprise was the Unemployment Rate pushing higher to 4.6%, but it is expected to drop back to 4.5% this month. Traders are expecting that any deviation of +/- 20k for the headline figure and a 0.1% change from the Unemployment Rate will see sharp moves in the market.

USDJPY is shaping up for one of the best trading opportunities on the data as it is sitting on key technical levels that should see exacerbated moves on the data release. It is currently sitting close to strong trendline support on the daily chart and any weaker data should see a clean break and open the way for a move back towards December lows and the next support levels under 154.00. Stronger numbers would see the dollar appreciate and should see the pair swiftly challenge the resistance trendline around 157.60 with a break there likely to see a longer-term target up near 160.00.

Resistance 2: 161.99 – July 2024 High

Resistance 1: 157.65 – Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 156.44 – Trendline Support

Support 2: 153.60 – Long-Term Trendline Support

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The post Trade USDJPY on the Non-Farm Payroll Data Release first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 09/01/2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 07 January 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Overnight in the U.S. session, risk appetite stayed firm with U.S. equities edging higher toward record levels, Treasury yields ticking up slightly, and the dollar broadly steady as traders positioned for key inflation and labor data later in the week. The main scheduled macro release was the U.S. services PMI, which showed ongoing expansion but at a slower pace, tempering some of the recent growth optimism.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders will focus on a cluster of key macro releases that could drive volatility in AUD, EUR, USD, and CAD pairs in the Asian and early European sessions. Australia prints its monthly CPI figures (headline m/m and y/y plus trimmed mean m/m), which will heavily influence expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia and thus AUD crosses at the start of the day. Later in the European morning, the eurozone releases its Core CPI and headline CPI flash estimates year‑on‑year, critical for gauging the European Central Bank’s policy path and likely to affect EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1:15 pm GMT)

ISM Services PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

JOLTS Job Openings (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. dollar enters Monday of the week containing 7 January 2026 on a slightly firmer footing, with the dollar index edging up into the high‑98s after suffering its steepest annual decline in about eight years in 2025. However, market commentary still characterizes the move as a modest rebound within a broader bearish trend, as investors anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts, remain wary of U.S. fiscal and political risks, and look ahead to key U.S. data releases that could either reinforce or challenge the prevailing bias to sell the dollar on rallies.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path. Updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1:15 pm GMT)

ISM Services PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

JOLTS Job Openings (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold remains near the very strong levels it reached at the end of last week, holding close to early‑2026 highs after an exceptional 2025 rally driven by safe‑haven demand, expectations of lower US interest rates, and broad macroeconomic uncertainty. Price action around the start of this week shows gold consolidating after its surge, with analysts describing a still‑bullish but potentially moderating trend for January as traders weigh possible central‑bank rate cuts, elevated global debt, and geopolitical risks against the risk of short‑term pullbacks or profit‑taking.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

CPI m/m (12:30 am GMT)

CPI y/y (12:30 am GMT)

Trimmed Mean CPI m/m (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar starts the week trading near recent highs against the US dollar after an 8% rise in 2025, underpinned by a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia stance, firm domestic inflation, and expectations that Australian rates may rise while US rates fall. Markets are watching upcoming Australian inflation data and the late‑January CPI report, which could shape a potential RBA move at its early‑February meeting, while softer iron ore prices and uncertainty over China’s economy act as counterweights that may limit further gains.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November 2025 policy meeting, adopting a cautious tone amid a surprise uptick in inflation data for the September quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive pause since the 25 basis point cut in August. The Board attributed some of the inflation rise to temporary factors like higher petrol prices and council rates, but noted signs of more persistent pressures from consumer demand.​
• Policymakers emphasized vigilance on inflation, with trimmed mean inflation expected to remain elevated in the near term before nearing the 2–3% target midpoint by mid-2027. Recent data showed underlying inflation staying above target until at least the second half of 2026, prompting upward revisions to forecasts. Capacity pressures are seen as slightly more pronounced than previously assessed, delaying any easing.
• Headline CPI for the September quarter exceeded expectations, driven partly by temporary items, while underlying measures signal ongoing stickiness. The shift to monthly CPI reporting, with the first full edition in November 2025, will enhance real-time inflation monitoring. Housing and services remain resilient contributors to price pressures.
• Domestic demand shows firmness in services alongside below-trend growth elsewhere, with capacity pressures not expected to ease significantly. The labor market is gradually softening, with unemployment projected to stabilize around 4.4%, though wage growth and productivity dynamics keep unit labor costs a concern. Household spending faces headwinds from high borrowing costs.​
• Global risks include geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility, set against modestly revised-up world growth outlooks. The Board describes its policy as mildly restrictive and data-dependent, balancing inflation control with employment goals. No rate hike was considered despite the inflation surprise.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive to address lingering price stability risks amid household and global vulnerabilities. Communications reaffirm the dual mandate of 2–3% inflation and full employment, with readiness to adjust based on incoming data.​
• Market expectations point to the cash rate holding through early 2026, with a possible modest cut to 3.3% mid-year if inflation eases as forecast. The new monthly CPI data will be key for timely insights.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 2 to 3 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand dollar is trading slightly stronger in early-week activity, supported by improved global risk sentiment and a softer US dollar, with NZD/USD hovering around the 0.58 level after several sessions of gradual gains. The currency’s move is being driven more by external factors, particularly expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, than by any fresh domestic New Zealand data today, and markets remain attentive to incoming US economic releases and Fed commentary that could shift the interest-rate differential.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

Today, the Japanese yen remains under pressure, trading around the mid‑156 to 157 per dollar area near ten‑month lows, as wide rate gaps with the US and uncertainty about the pace of Bank of Japan hikes weigh on the currency. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming Japanese PMI and inflation data, along with shifts in US Federal Reserve cut expectations, to gauge whether USD/JPY can push again toward the 158–160 region or retreat on renewed intervention fears and stronger BoJ tightening bets.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan will meet on 18–19 December with markets almost fully pricing a 25-basis-point hike, which would raise the short-term policy rate from 0.50% to around 0.75%, as the bank moves further away from its ultra-loose stance while stressing that any tightening will remain gradual and data-dependent.
• The BOJ is expected to continue guiding the uncollateralized overnight call rate in a narrow band around the new policy rate, near 0.75%, while signaling that the pace and timing of any additional hikes will depend on how past increases affect bank lending, corporate financing conditions, and overall economic activity.
• The quarterly path of JGB purchases remains on a pre-announced, gradual taper: outright purchases are being reduced by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, then by roughly ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, with the bank still aiming for JGB purchases to settle near ¥2 trillion in Q1 2027 and retaining flexibility to adjust the pace if market functioning or yield volatility deteriorate.
• Japan’s economy has softened in the near term, with Q3 2025 GDP contracting at an annualized rate of approximately 2.3%, as weaker residential investment and external demand weighed on activity. Meanwhile, business sentiment in manufacturing has recently improved to a roughly four-year high.
• Core consumer inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to around 3.0% year-on-year in October, up from 2.9% in September and remaining above the BOJ’s 2% target, while the “core-core” measure excluding both fresh food and energy rose to about 3.1%, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures.
• In the very near term, some input-cost pressures are easing as earlier import price surges fade, but services inflation linked to labor shortages, along with steady wage gains, continues to support broader price momentum; firms’ and households’ medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored slightly above 2%, keeping short-term inflation risks tilted to the upside.
• For the coming quarters, the BOJ assesses that real growth will likely run below potential as the economy digests tighter financial conditions and past yen depreciation. However, accommodative real rates, positive real wage growth, and improving corporate sentiment are expected to help sustain a modest recovery in private consumption and business investment.
• Over the medium term, as overseas demand stabilizes and domestic labor markets remain tight, the BOJ expects wage settlements and inflation expectations to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory around or slightly above 2%, providing room for further cautious rate normalization as long as financial conditions remain supportive and the recovery is not derailed.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 22 to 23 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are trading weakly, with the market focused on oversupply risks, steady OPEC+ output, and geopolitical events such as the Venezuela crisis and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Analysts generally see a bearish to mildly stabilizing outlook for early January as rising global supply and cautious demand keep both Brent and WTI under downside pressure despite periodic geopolitical spikes.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 07 January 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.63%, Shanghai Composite up 0.29%, Hang Seng down 1.05% ASX up 0.38%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,487.35 (-0.19%), Silver at $80.507 (-0.65%), Brent Oil at $60.07 (-1.02%), WTI Oil at $56.32 (-1.42%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.162, UK 10-year yield at 4.4820, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8466

News & Data:

• (USD) Final Services PMI  52.5 to 52.9 expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets traded mixed on Wednesday, taking broadly positive cues from Wall Street overnight but remaining cautious amid rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, as well as escalating strains between China and Japan over Taiwan. Investors are also awaiting several key U.S. economic reports due later this week. Asian markets had closed mostly higher on Tuesday.

Attention is focused on Friday’s U.S. monthly jobs report, which could shape expectations for interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this month. While the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at its January meeting, markets continue to price in at least one quarter-point rate cut in the coming months.

Australian shares rebounded strongly, with the S&P/ASX 200 climbing above 8,700, supported by gains in gold miners and technology stocks, despite weakness in energy and financial shares. Major miners BHP Group and Rio Tinto advanced, while oil stocks declined. Technology shares were mostly higher, and gold miners posted solid gains. Several individual stocks surged on contract wins, patent approvals, and upbeat results.

In economic data, Australia’s annual inflation eased to 3.4 percent in November, its lowest level since August, while building permits rose sharply, beating expectations. The Australian dollar traded around $0.673.

Japan’s stock market declined, reversing gains from earlier sessions, led by losses in exporters and technology stocks. Economic data showed Japan’s services sector continued to expand in December, though at a slower pace.

Elsewhere in Asia, markets were mixed, while Wall Street and major European indices closed higher overnight. Crude oil prices fell as investors assessed the impact of recent U.S. military action in Venezuela.

Upcoming Events:

• 03:00 PM GMT – USD ISM Services PMI
• 03:00 PM GMT – USD JOLTS Job Openings

The post Wednesday 7th January 2026: Asian Markets Trade Mixed as Investors Weigh Geopolitical Risks and Key U.S. Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 98.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 98.11

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.46
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1714

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1651

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1762

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 183.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 181.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 184.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8707

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8642
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8746
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3474

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3421
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3610
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 211.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 21.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 212.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7899

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7860
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7964
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 156.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 156.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 157.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                     

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3746

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3684

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3890

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6698

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.6673

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6743

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5792

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5743

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5849

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 48,844.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 48,371.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 49,703.45

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 24,687.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 24,203.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,501.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,933.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,823.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,018.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 94,626.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 90,634.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 98,901.37

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 3,201.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 3,051.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,403.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 56.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 55.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 58.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,495.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,404.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,549.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 7th January 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Mixed Ahead of Employment Data – Dow down 0.9%

US equity markets delivered a mixed performance overnight as investors positioned cautiously ahead of key US employment data due later in the week. The Dow Jones slipped 0.94% to close at 48,996, retreating from record highs, while the S&P 500 eased 0.34% to 6,920. In contrast, technology stocks provided modest support, with the Nasdaq edging 0.16% higher to finish at 23,584. The US dollar firmed slightly against the major currencies, with the DXY rising 0.15% to 98.73. US Treasury yields were mixed across the curve, as the 2-year yield ticked 0.6 basis points higher to 3.470%, while the 10-year yield fell 2.5 basis points to 4.148%. Commodity markets remained under pressure, with oil prices extending recent declines amid ongoing supply concerns. Brent crude fell 0.58% to $60.35 a barrel, while WTI dropped a sharper 1.5% to $56.36. Gold also eased as profit-taking emerged near record levels, slipping 0.85% to $4,456.47 an ounce after its recent strong rally.

Non-Farms in Focus for FX Traders in Coming Sessions

There is no doubt that, for FX markets, the upcoming Non-Farms payrolls data release on Friday will be the premier event of the week and possibly even the month. The Fed have made no secret of their increased focus on the US job market over the past few months, and the overall market is looking for more weakness to lock in interest rates in the coming months. Currently, the market is pricing in just an 11% chance of another 25-basis-point cut at the January meeting; however, a sharp drop in the data on Friday could see these odds increase dramatically and see the dollar drop into fresh ranges on the majors. Conversely, anything much higher than the expected 60k print would push rate-cut expectations further into 2026 and see the greenback rally strongly. Whatever happens, FX traders are expecting moves in the major currencies around the data release.

Calm Calendar Day Ahead of Tomorrow’s Non-Farms

It is a relatively quiet day on the macroeconomic calendar today ahead of tomorrow’s key US employment numbers. The Asian session is set to open slightly on the back foot today after a mixed day on Wall Street, and with little on the event calendar, traders are expecting relatively quiet trading conditions unless anything pops up on the geopolitical front. European session focus will fall on Swiss inflation data, with CPI figures due out early in the piece. Market expectation is for a 0% move in the month-on-month data, and anything off this should see moves in the franc, especially given that the SNB is already on zero interest rates. Attention in the US session turns to further labour market signals, with weekly unemployment claims released shortly after the open. The market is expecting a blip up to 213k after a dip last month, but most traders are expecting the impact to be limited ahead of tomorrow’s key NFP update.

The post General Market Analysis – 08/01/26 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.