Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.51%, Shanghai Composite down -0.21%, Hang Seng down -0.03% ASX up 0.26%
• Commodities : Gold at $3,721.20 (0.04%), Silver at $43.090 (0.28%), Brent Oil at $67.53 (0.15%), WTI Oil at $67.54 (0.15%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.033, UK 10-year yield at 4.6310, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6959

News & Data:

• (CAD) Manufacturing Sales m/m 2.5%  to 1.7% expected
• (CAD) Wholesale Sales m/m 1.2%  to 1.4% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets traded mixed on Tuesday, tracking broadly positive cues from Wall Street as investors stayed cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. With inflation subdued and labor market data weakening, traders widely expect the Fed to cut rates by a quarter-point. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 96.4 percent probability of such a move, with slim chances of a deeper cut. Markets will closely watch Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks for guidance on further easing.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 advanced 21.40 points or 0.24 percent to 8,874.40, lifted by miners and technology shares, while the All Ordinaries rose 0.29 percent. BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue gained strongly, while tech stocks such as Block and Appen also advanced. Gold miners posted solid gains, while bank stocks were mixed. The Australian dollar traded at $0.667.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 136.01 points or 0.30 percent to 44,904.13 after briefly hitting a record high. Tech names like Screen Holdings and Tokyo Electron outperformed, while banks weakened. Exporters were mixed, with Sony slipping but Mitsubishi Electric edging up. Elsewhere, South Korea climbed 1.1 percent, Taiwan added 0.9 percent, while Singapore and China dipped slightly.

On Wall Street, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed at record highs Monday, while oil prices advanced amid Middle East tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD CPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Median CPI y/y
• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Trimmed CPI y/y
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Core Retail Sales m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Retail Sales m/m

The post Tuesday 16th September 2025: Asian Stocks Mixed as Investors Await Fed Rate Cut Decision first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 16 September 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

The Asia trading session on September 16, 2025, was dominated by optimism surrounding expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, which drove major stock indices to historic highs in Japan and South Korea. However, China’s disappointing economic data served as a reminder of underlying regional challenges. The combination of Fed dovishness, improving US-China trade dynamics, and strong corporate earnings supported risk assets, while safe-haven flows into gold reflected ongoing global uncertainties.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Today’s trading environment is dominated by Fed expectations, with traders positioned for the first rate cut of 2025. While markets appear confident in a 25bp reduction, the real focus will be on Fed guidance for future policy paths. Economic data, particularly retail sales, will provide insights into consumer resilience amid this monetary policy transition. The combination of dovish Fed expectations, record-low yields, and geopolitical uncertainties creates a complex backdrop requiring careful risk management across all asset classes.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar faced its most significant challenge in months on September 16, 2025, as a confluence of factors – including dovish Fed expectations, intensifying political pressure from President Trump, and technical selling momentum – pushed the currency to multi-month lows. With the Fed’s rate cut decision virtually certain, focus has shifted to the magnitude of the reduction and forward guidance about future policy moves. The dollar’s near-term trajectory will likely depend on the Fed’s ability to balance economic data with political pressures while maintaining its independence, alongside upcoming economic indicators that could either support or challenge the current dovish narrative.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 16–17, 2025, meeting, marking the first policy rate adjustment since December 2024 after five consecutive holds.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objective of achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, acknowledging recent labor market softening and continued tariff-driven price pressures.
• Policymakers expressed elevated concern about downside risks to growth, citing a stalling labor market, modest job creation, and an unemployment rate drifting up toward 4.4%. At the same time, inflation remains above target, with CPI at 3.2% and core inflation at 3.1% as of August 2025; higher energy and food prices, largely attributable to tariffs, continue to weigh on headline measures.
• Although economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter, the growth outlook has weakened. Q3 GDP growth is estimated near 1.0% (annualized), with full-year 2025 GDP growth guidance revised to 1.2%, reflecting slowing household consumption and tighter financial conditions.
• In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% for the year, with headline PCE inflation revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2025. The Committee anticipates core PCE inflation to remain stubborn, requiring sustained vigilance and a flexible approach to risk management.
• The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach and openness to further adjustments should employment or inflation deviate meaningfully from current forecasts. Several members dissented, either advocating a larger 50 basis point cut or preferring no adjustment at this meeting, revealing heightened divergence within the Committee.
• Balance sheet reduction continues at a measured pace. The monthly Treasury redemption cap remains at $5B and the agency MBS cap at $35B, as the Board aims to support orderly market conditions in the face of evolving global and domestic uncertainty
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s record-breaking performance on September 16, 2025, reflects a confluence of supportive factors, including near-certain Fed rate cut expectations, US dollar weakness, robust ETF inflows, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. While central bank purchases have moderated due to high prices, they remain positive, and technical indicators suggest further upside potential toward the $3,700-$3,800 range. The metal’s 43% year-to-date gain underscores its continued appeal as both an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset in an environment of monetary policy uncertainty and global instability.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro demonstrated resilience on September 16, 2025, reaching $1.1778 despite significant regional challenges. The ECB’s hawkish pivot, signaling an end to rate cuts, provided fundamental support for the currency. However, persistent concerns remain around France’s fiscal crisis, German economic weakness, and escalating trade tensions with both the US and China.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council kept the three key ECB interest rates unchanged at its September 11, 2025, meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. These levels have been maintained after the cuts earlier in 2025, reflecting the Council’s confidence that the current stance is consistent with the price stability mandate.
• Evidence that inflation is running close to the ECB’s medium-term target of 2% supported the decision to hold rates steady. Domestic price pressures are easing as wage growth continues to moderate, and financing conditions remain accommodative. Policymakers reaffirmed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to further policy moves, with no pre-commitment to a predetermined path amid ongoing global and domestic risks.
• Eurosystem staff projections foresee headline inflation averaging 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% in 2027. The 2025 and 2026 forecasts reflect a downward revision, primarily on lower energy costs and exchange rate effects, even as food inflation remains persistent. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) is expected at 2.0% for both 2026 and 2027, with only minor changes since prior rounds.
• Real GDP growth in the euro area is projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. A robust first quarter—partly due to firms accelerating exports ahead of anticipated tariff hikes—cushioned a weaker outlook for the remainder of 2025. While business investment continues to face uncertainty from ongoing global trade disputes, especially with the US, government investment and infrastructure spending are expected to provide some support to the outlook..
• Household spending is backed by rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• Household spending is backed by rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• All future interest rate decisions will continue to be guided by the integrated assessment of economic and financial data, the inflation outlook, and underlying inflation dynamics, and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission—without any pre-commitment to a specific future rate path.
• The ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining predictably, as reinvestment of maturities has ceased. Balance-sheet normalization continues in line with the ECB’s previously communicated schedule.
• The next meeting is on 29 to 30 October 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc enters mid-September 2025 from a position of considerable strength, supported by safe-haven flows, contained inflation, and Switzerland’s economic stability. While the upcoming SNB meeting on September 25 is expected to maintain current policy settings, the central bank’s new transparency measures signal an important communication evolution. US trade tensions remain a significant economic challenge, though Switzerland’s diversified economy and the franc’s reserve currency status continue to provide resilience in an uncertain global environment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.25% to 0% on 19 June 2025, marking the sixth consecutive reduction.
• Inflationary pressure has decreased further as compared to the previous quarter, decreasing from 0.3% in February to -0.1% in May, mainly attributable to lower prices in tourism and oil products.
• Compared to March, the new conditional inflation forecast is lower in the short term. In the medium term, there is hardly any change from March, putting the average annual inflation at 0.2% for 2025, 0.5% for 2026, and 0.7% for 2027.
• The global economy continued to grow at a moderate pace in the first quarter of 2025, but the global economic outlook for the coming quarters has deteriorated due to the increase in trade tensions.
• Swiss GDP growth was strong in the first quarter of 2025, but this development was largely because, as in other countries, exports to the U.S. were brought forward.
• Following the strong first quarter, growth is likely to slow again and remain rather subdued over the remainder of the year; the SNB expects GDP growth of 1% to 1.5% for 2025 as a whole, while also anticipating GDP growth of 1% to 1.5% for 2026.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 25 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Average Earnings Index 3m/y (6:00 am GMT)

Claimant Count Change (6:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Sterling’s strength on Tuesday reflects broad US Dollar weakness ahead of the Fed’s anticipated rate cut, despite concerning domestic economic fundamentals. While the Pound benefits from relative outperformance against other major currencies, underlying challenges include stagnant growth, elevated inflation, and a cautious Bank of England. The combination of a dovish Fed and resilient UK inflation expectations continues to support Sterling in the near term, though technical resistance levels and domestic economic headwinds present potential challenges ahead.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted on 7 August 2025 by a majority (exact split likely 5–3–1 or similar, based on expectations) to cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%. Multiple members supported the move, citing fragile economic growth and signs of disinflation, while others preferred a larger reduction, and at least one member voted to hold the rate steady due to concerns about persistent inflation.
• The Committee unanimously decided to continue reducing the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes by £100 billion over the next 12 months, targeting a balance of £558 billion by October 2025. As of 7 August, the gilt stock stands at £590 billion.
• Disinflation has been substantial since 2023 owing to policy tightening and the fading of external shocks. However, an unexpected uptick in headline CPI inflation—to 3.6% in June—reflects pass-through from regulated prices and earlier energy price rises, as well as signs of sticky core inflation.
• Headline CPI inflation is now 3.6%, above the Bank’s 2% target, reflecting regulated and energy price effects. The Committee expects inflation to remain around this level through Q3 before resuming its downward trend into 2026.
• UK GDP growth remains weak. Business and consumer surveys point to lackluster activity, and the labor market continues to loosen, with increasing evidence of slack. Wage growth has softened but remains above pre-pandemic norms.
• Pay growth and employment indicators have moderated further, and the Committee expects a significant slowing in pay settlements over the rest of 2025.
• Global uncertainty remains elevated, especially with rising energy prices and supply disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East and renewed trade tensions. These factors prompt the MPC to remain vigilant in monitoring cost and wage shocks.
• The risks to inflation are considered two-sided. With the outlook for growth subdued and inflation persistence less clear, the Committee argues that a gradual and careful approach to further easing is warranted, with future policy decisions highly data-dependent.
• The Committee’s bias is still towards maintaining monetary policy at a restrictive stance until there is firmer evidence that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target over the medium term. Further adjustments to policy will be decided on a meeting-by-meeting basis, with scrutiny of developments in demand, costs, and inflation expectations.
• The next meeting is on 18 September 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

CPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Median CPI y/y (12:30 pm GMT)

Trimmed CPI y/y (12:30 pm GMT)

Common CPI y/y (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Tuesday’s developments reflect a Canadian dollar caught between supportive factors like higher oil prices and manufacturing resilience, versus significant headwinds from labor market deterioration and expected monetary easing. The currency’s performance in the coming days will largely depend on the Bank of Canada’s communication strategy and whether policymakers signal a prolonged easing cycle. With both the BoC and Fed expected to cut rates on Wednesday, the relative magnitude and forward guidance from each central bank will be crucial for the USD/CAD direction.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% as of July 30, marking the third consecutive meeting with rates on hold.
• The Council cited ongoing U.S. tariff adjustments and unresolved trade negotiations as key drivers of elevated economic uncertainty. The persistence of tariffs at levels well above those of early 2025 continues to present downside risks to growth and keeps inflation expectations elevated, supporting a cautious approach to monetary easing.
• The lack of a clear U.S. policy path, plus frequent threats of additional tariffs, led the Bank to highlight risks to Canadian exports and broader demand, amplifying uncertainty about future growth.
• Canada’s economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%, slightly stronger than the original forecast, while the composition of GDP growth was largely as expected. Consumption slowed from its very strong fourth-quarter pace, but continued to grow despite a large drop in consumer confidence.
• Canadian GDP growth is expected to be near 0% in Q2 2025, closely aligned with the more optimistic scenario outlined earlier in the year. Weakness in manufacturing activity—driven by both U.S. trade disruptions and sector-specific challenges like wildfires—contributed to softer output. A partial recovery is anticipated in Q3 due to rebuilding efforts and stronger retail sales in June.
• Consumer spending slowed, especially as households front-loaded durable goods purchases ahead of tariffs. Housing activity remains subdued, with resales and construction still soft despite some government tax relief measures.
• Headline CPI inflation continued to ease, holding close to 1.7% in June, aided by declines in energy prices following the removal of the fuel charge. However, the Bank’s measures of core inflation and underlying price pressures moved up further due to higher import costs from tariffs and lingering supply disruptions.
• The Governing Council reiterated that it will carefully weigh ongoing upward inflation pressure from tariffs and cost shocks against the gradual downward pull from economic weakness. While additional rate cuts remain possible, timing and scale will depend on trade policy developments and inflation’s path.
• The next meeting is on 17 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets on September 16, 2025, are caught between conflicting forces. While immediate supply disruption risks from Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts are providing near-term price support, fundamental market conditions point to significant oversupply ahead. The EIA’s projection of massive inventory builds and OPEC+’s continued production increases suggest substantial downward price pressure through 2026, with Brent potentially falling to $50 per barrel despite current geopolitical tensions. The market is essentially pricing in short-term disruption risks while bracing for longer-term oversupply challenges.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 16 September 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could continue to make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 97.62

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 97.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 98.12
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1736
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 1.1678
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1808
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is approaching the pivot and could make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 173.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 172.66
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 173.89
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and could continue to make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8638
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 0.8622
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 0.8663
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is falling toward the pivot and could make a bullish bounce toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3576
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 1.3480
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3674
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and could make a bullish rise toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 199.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 199.01
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 200.91
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could continue to make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7996

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.7909
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8031
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and could continue to make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 147.86

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 146.41Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 148.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                          

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could rise toward the pivot and make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3807

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.3720

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3877

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could continue to make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6619
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 0.6557

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6689
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns wth the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is testing the pivot and could make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5940
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 0.5913

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6004

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 45,771.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 45,297.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 46,279.75

Supporting reasons: Identified as a esistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is rising toward the pivot and could make a bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 23,938.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 23,382.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,274.67

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,557.52
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 6,520.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,614.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and could make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 114,612.58
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 112,962.02

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 117,171.16

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and could continue to make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,477.50
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 4,239.45

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,761.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could rise toward the pivot and could make a bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 64.16
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 62.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 65.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,654.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 3,620.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,691.50
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Tuesday 16th September 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 September 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The US overnight session was dominated by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, driving broad market optimism, with major indices reaching new records. Tesla’s massive insider buying and US-China trade negotiations provided additional market catalysts, while weakening consumer sentiment and China’s investigation into Nvidia introduced some caution. The convergence of monetary policy expectations, corporate developments, and geopolitical negotiations created a dynamic trading environment that favored technology stocks and risk assets while pressuring the dollar and bond yields.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Tuesday’s Asian session presents a potentially volatile but opportunity-rich environment driven primarily by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and their cascading effects across global markets. The anticipated dollar weakness creates favorable conditions for Asian assets, while divergent regional central bank policies offer tactical trading opportunities. Key focus areas include Japan’s trade data release, currency positioning ahead of the Fed meeting, and continued monitoring of China’s economic trajectory. With sparse local economic data, global monetary policy developments will dominate market sentiment and positioning decisions for Asian traders.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Financial markets are bracing for a potentially pivotal day for the US dollar. Today’s retail sales data and the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut are front and center, likely shaping dollar direction for the weeks ahead. Broader market themes such as oil prices, policy divergence, and geopolitical factors remain influential but secondary to domestic US monetary policy developments.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 16–17, 2025, meeting, marking the first policy rate adjustment since December 2024 after five consecutive holds.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objective of achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, acknowledging recent labor market softening and continued tariff-driven price pressures.
• Policymakers expressed elevated concern about downside risks to growth, citing a stalling labor market, modest job creation, and an unemployment rate drifting up toward 4.4%. At the same time, inflation remains above target, with CPI at 3.2% and core inflation at 3.1% as of August 2025; higher energy and food prices, largely attributable to tariffs, continue to weigh on headline measures.
• Although economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter, the growth outlook has weakened. Q3 GDP growth is estimated near 1.0% (annualized), with full-year 2025 GDP growth guidance revised to 1.2%, reflecting slowing household consumption and tighter financial conditions.
• In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% for the year, with headline PCE inflation revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2025. The Committee anticipates core PCE inflation to remain stubborn, requiring sustained vigilance and a flexible approach to risk management.
• The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach and openness to further adjustments should employment or inflation deviate meaningfully from current forecasts. Several members dissented, either advocating a larger 50 basis point cut or preferring no adjustment at this meeting, revealing heightened divergence within the Committee.
• Balance sheet reduction continues at a measured pace. The monthly Treasury redemption cap remains at $5B and the agency MBS cap at $35B, as the Board aims to support orderly market conditions in the face of evolving global and domestic uncertainty.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s performance on Tuesday, September 16, 2025, represents the continuation of a historic bull market driven by a powerful combination of fundamental factors. The metal’s surge to new record highs above $3,680 per ounce reflects widespread expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, significant dollar weakness, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and sustained central bank buying.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar is benefiting from a perfect storm of supportive factors: broad USD weakness ahead of expected Fed easing, reduced expectations for further RBA cuts, and technical momentum carrying the currency to 10-month highs. While Chinese economic data remains a concern given the trade relationship, the AUD’s resilience suggests underlying strength in the current environment. Tuesday’s US retail sales data and Wednesday’s Fed decision will be key catalysts for the next phase of AUD movement.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at its September meeting on 8–9 September 2025, following a 25 basis point reduction at the August meeting. This maintains a cautious yet supportive stance, with the decision largely anticipated given recent evidence of inflation settling within the target band.
• Inflation readings continue to ease, with headline CPI most likely tracking near 2.1–2.3%—comfortably within the 2–3% target range. September quarter figures are pending, but leading indicators show further moderation in non-housing components, even as insurance and housing-related costs remain sticky.
• The RBA’s preferred trimmed mean inflation is estimated at around 2.7%–2.9%, further reflecting progress toward the midpoint of the target range. Energy and food volatility still create some short-term uncertainty, but underlying inflation is broadly on track.
• Global conditions are a key source of risk. While U.S.–EU trade tensions have stabilized slightly, volatility in equities and commodities persists, with uncertainty feeding through to Australia’s trade and export outlook.
• Domestic demand shows tentative improvement. Real household incomes and a stabilizing housing sector have underpinned modest consumption growth, though business investment remains uneven—service sectors outperforming manufacturing and construction.
• Labor market tightness persists, but momentum continues to slow from earlier in the year. Employment gains remain, but job vacancies and hiring intentions have softened, with underutilization rising marginally for the second straight month.
• Wage growth has slowed in line with easing labour pressures, but unit labour costs remain elevated due to weak productivity. The RBA continues to flag subdued productivity as a medium-term cost risk.
• Forward indicators suggest household consumption may be softer than previously forecast. Elevated rents and high borrowing costs are dampening discretionary spending, despite modest income recovery.
• The Board continues to highlight the risk that household spending could underperform, potentially weighing on business investment and job creation if confidence remains subdued.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, in line with greater inflation control and ongoing economic rebalancing. The decision to hold rates recognizes both progress and ongoing uncertainties, with future moves explicitly tied to incoming data.
• The Reserve Bank reinforced its goals of price stability and full employment, stating readiness to adjust policy if economic or inflation outcomes diverge from baseline projections.
• The next meeting is on 29 to 30 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar finds itself at a critical juncture on Tuesday, September 16, 2025. While benefiting from US dollar weakness and Fed easing expectations, the currency faces domestic headwinds from dovish RBNZ policy and anticipated economic contraction. The upcoming GDP release on September 18th will be crucial in determining whether recent gains can be sustained or if the currency will succumb to fundamental domestic weaknesses. Market participants are balancing short-term technical momentum against longer-term economic realities, creating a volatile environment for NZD traders.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.00% on 20 August 2025, marking a three-year low and continuing the easing cycle after July’s pause. The vote was split 4-2, with two members advocating a 50-basis-point cut, highlighting diverging views within the Committee.
• Policymakers indicated that significant uncertainty and a stalling economic recovery prompted this move, leaving the door open for further rate cuts later in the year, with a possible trough around 2.5% by December.
• Annual consumer price index inflation rose to 2.7% in the June quarter and is expected to reach 3% for the September quarter—at the upper end of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band—but medium-term expectations remain anchored near the 2% midpoint.
• Despite the near-term uptick, headline inflation is projected to return toward 2% by mid-2026, as tradables inflation pressures ease and significant spare capacity continues to dampen domestic price momentum.
• Domestic financial conditions are broadly aligning with MPC expectations, as lower wholesale rates have translated into reduced borrowing costs for households. However, declining consumption and investment demand, higher unemployment, and subdued wage growth reflect ongoing economic slack.
• GDP growth stalled in the second quarter of 2025, contrasting with earlier projections. High-frequency indicators point to continued weakness driven by rising prices for essentials, weakening household savings, and constrained business lending.
• The MPC cautioned that ongoing global tariff uncertainties and policy shifts, especially recent changes in US trade regulations, could amplify market volatility and present both upside and downside risks to New Zealand’s recovery.
• Subject to medium-term inflation pressures continuing to ease as projected, the MPC signaled scope for further OCR cuts, possibly down to 2.5% by year-end, consistent with the latest Monetary Policy Statement outlook.
• The next meeting is on 22 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen faces a challenging environment heading into the crucial BoJ meeting. Political uncertainty following PM Ishiba’s resignation has reduced expectations for immediate rate hikes, while persistent inflation above target and trade challenges create competing pressures. The upcoming Fed decision and Japan’s political developments this week will be critical drivers for USD/JPY direction, with volatility expected to remain elevated as these key events unfold.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 31 July, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
• The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
• The BOJ will maintain its gradual reduction of monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). The scheduled amount of long-term government bond purchases will, in principle, continue to decrease by about ¥400 billion each quarter from January to March 2026, and by about ¥200 billion each quarter from April to June 2026 onward, targeting a purchase level near ¥2 trillion in January to March 2027.
• Japan’s economy is experiencing a moderate recovery overall, though some sectors remain sluggish. Overseas economies are generally growing moderately, but recent trade policies in major economies have introduced pockets of weakness. Exports and industrial production in Japan are essentially flat, with any uptick largely driven by front-loaded demand ahead of U.S. tariff increases.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices (excluding fresh food) remains in the mid-3% range. This reflects continued wage pass-through, previous import cost surges, and further increases in food prices, particularly rice. Expectations for future inflation have begun to rise moderately.
• The effects of the earlier import price and food cost increases are expected to fade during the outlook period. There may be a temporary stagnation in core inflation as overall growth momentum softens.
• Looking forward, the economy is likely to see a slower growth pace in the near term as overseas economies feel the pinch of ongoing global trade policies, putting downward pressure on Japanese corporate profits. Accommodative financial conditions are expected to buffer these headwinds somewhat. In the medium term, as global growth recovers, Japan’s growth rate is also expected to improve.
• With renewed economic expansion, intensifying labor shortages, and a steady rise in medium- to long-term expected inflation rates, core inflation is projected to gradually pick up. By the latter half of the BOJ’s projection period, inflation is forecast to move in line with the 2% price stability target.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 17 to 18 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

The oil market on Tuesday, September 16, 2025, is characterized by conflicting pressures. While geopolitical tensions from Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts are providing upward price support, concerns about a looming global supply surplus from increased OPEC+ production and rising US inventories are capping gains. The market appears to be in a delicate balancing act between supply security concerns and oversupply fears, with prices likely to remain volatile as these competing forces play out.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 September 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Stocks Push Higher Ahead of the Fed – Nasdaq up 1%

US stocks pushed higher in trading yesterday ahead of an anticipated rate cut from the Fed later in the week. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P hit record closes again; the Nasdaq closed up 0.94% at 22,348, the S&P added 0.47% to 6,615, and the Dow finished up 0.11% at 45,883. Empire State Manufacturing data came in worse than expected, pushing both yields and the dollar lower: the 2-year off 1.9 basis points to 3.537%, the 10-year down 2.7 basis points to 4.037%, and the DXY 0.2% lower at 97.36. Oil prices pushed higher again, with Brent up 0.67% to $67.43 and WTI up 0.89% to $63.25 a barrel. Gold again hit record highs on the back of the lower dollar, closing the day up 0.98% at $3,678.99, having topped out at $3,685.39 earlier in the day.

Sterling in Focus as Data Rolls into the Bank of England

It is a big week across financial markets with the key Fed rate decision probably first and foremost in most traders’ minds. However, FX traders feel they may get more bang for their buck in the next few days in the pound, which has some key data due out around the next rate call from the Bank of England. Both employment data and inflation numbers are due out this week on consecutive days ahead of the interest rate decision, and both have the propensity to push Cable and the crosses to fresh levels if they come in significantly off expectations. Employment data is due out later today, with the Unemployment Rate set to remain high at 4.7%. The CPI number is out tomorrow, expected to remain “sticky” at 3.8% year-on-year, with these numbers probably locking in a hold from the MPC on Thursday. Any big deviations on the prints, although unlikely to affect this week’s rate call, could affect future moves, and they are likely to be reflected in the currency.

Data in Focus for Traders Today

Traders will be focusing on some key data releases in the sessions today, ahead of a raft of crucial central bank interest rate decisions in the coming days. There is little on the schedule in the Asian session, although markets are expected to push higher after another strong day on Wall Street. The European session will see a strong focus on UK markets with employment numbers due out early in the session. The Claimant Count (exp. 15.3k), Average Earnings Index (exp. 4.7% 3m/y), and the Unemployment Rate (exp. 4.7%) are expected to see moves in sterling ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England rate call. The New York session sees a big data hit early in the day, with US Retail Sales (exp. 0.2% m/m) and Core Retail Sales (exp. 0.4% m/m) releases out alongside Canadian CPI (exp. 0.0% m/m) and Trimmed Mean CPI (exp. 3.0% y/y) data.

The post General Market Analysis – 16/09/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 16/9/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.89%, Shanghai Composite down -0.02%, Hang Seng up 0.36% ASX down -0.26%
• Commodities : Gold at $3,681.20 (-0.12%), Silver at $42.715 (-0.26%), Brent Oil at $67.37 (-0.57%), WTI Oil at $63.09 (0.64%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.078, UK 10-year yield at 4.6710, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7133

News & Data:

• (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 55.4  to 58.2 expected
• (USD) Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 4.8%  to 4.8% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets traded mostly higher on Monday, tracking mixed Wall Street cues from Friday, as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision this week. Softer labor data and subdued inflation have reinforced expectations of a rate cut, while rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also weighing on sentiment. Most Asian markets closed higher on Friday.

The Fed is widely expected to trim rates by a quarter point during its two-day meeting beginning Tuesday. Traders will closely monitor the central bank’s statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for hints on further easing later this year. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 96.4 percent chance of a 25-basis-point cut and only a slim probability of a larger move.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped 30.30 points, or 0.34 percent, to 8,834.60, with weakness in miners and mixed performance across sectors. Rio Tinto and Mineral Resources edged higher, but BHP and Fortescue declined. Energy stocks were mixed, while tech stocks showed volatility as WiseTech gained strongly and Block fell over 1 percent. Gold miners were notably weak, with Evolution Mining plunging more than 5 percent.

Elsewhere, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Indonesia posted modest gains, while Taiwan and New Zealand declined. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday.

On Wall Street Friday, the Nasdaq hit a record, while the Dow fell sharply and the S&P 500 ended flat. Crude oil rose as supply concerns persisted amid intensifying global conflicts.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Wholesale Sales m/m

The post Monday 15th September 2025: Asian Stocks Mixed as Fed Decision Looms first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 15 September 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

Monday’s Asia session was characterized by mixed Chinese economic data that disappointed market expectations, particularly in retail sales, which reflected ongoing consumer weakness. The Australian dollar faced the most significant pressure due to its sensitivity to Chinese economic performance, while other major currencies remained relatively range-bound ahead of key central bank decisions later in the week.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
This week represents a critical juncture for global financial markets, with the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut serving as the primary catalyst for market movements. Traders should monitor the Fed’s forward guidance and dot plot projections for future rate paths, while also tracking key economic data from China and manufacturing indicators from the U.S. Currency markets remain focused on central bank divergence, with the dollar’s direction heavily dependent on Fed communications. Energy markets face ongoing geopolitical volatility, while European markets benefit from relatively stable inflation near target levels.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar faces significant headwinds as September 15, 2025 begins, with the DXY trading near ten-week lows around 97.64. The overwhelming market consensus for a Fed rate cut this week, combined with broader concerns about policy volatility, fiscal deficits, and trade tensions, has created a challenging environment for the greenback. While the dollar showed modest Monday morning gains due to position adjustments, the overall outlook remains bearish with potential for further weakness if the Fed delivers the expected rate cut and signals additional easing ahead.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50% at its meeting on July 29–30, 2025, keeping policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting.
• The Committee reiterated its objective of achieving maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. While uncertainty around the economic outlook has diminished since earlier in the year, the Committee notes that challenges remain and continued vigilance is warranted.
• Policymakers remain highly attentive to risks on both sides of their dual mandate. The unemployment rate remains low, near 4.2%–4.5%, and labor market conditions are described as solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated, with the PCE price index at 2.6% and a core inflation forecast of 3.1% for year-end 2025, up from earlier projections; tariff-related pressures are cited as a contributing factor.
• The Committee acknowledged that recent economic activity has expanded at a solid pace, with second-quarter annualized growth estimates near 2.4%. However, GDP growth for 2025 has been revised downward to 1.4% (from 1.7% projected in March), reflecting expectations of a slowdown in the coming quarters.
• In the revised Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is expected to average 4.5% in 2025, and headline PCE inflation is forecast at 3.0% for the year, with core PCE at 3.1%. Policymakers continue to anticipate that inflation will moderate gradually, with ongoing risks from tariffs and global conditions.
• The Committee reaffirmed its data-dependent and risk-aware approach to future policy decisions. Officials stated they are prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede progress toward the Fed’s goals.
• As previously outlined, the Committee continues the measured run-off of its securities holdings. The pace of balance sheet reduction, which slowed since April (monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities reduced from $25B to $5B, while holding agency MBS cap steady at $35B), was left unchanged this month to support orderly market functioning and financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s performance on Monday, September 15, 2025, reflects a market in consolidation mode ahead of the critical Federal Reserve decision. While prices retreated slightly from record highs, the fundamental drivers supporting gold remain firmly intact. The combination of dovish Federal Reserve expectations, persistent geopolitical tensions, robust ETF inflows, and strategic central bank buying creates a supportive environment for continued price appreciation.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (6:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Monday, September 15, 2025, highlighted the euro’s resilience amid significant political and economic challenges. While the ECB’s stable monetary policy stance and improved growth forecasts provided support, France’s historic credit rating downgrade and persistent political instability created headwinds. The euro’s performance reflected market confidence in the broader eurozone’s economic fundamentals, even as France grapples with unprecedented fiscal and political pressures.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council kept the three key ECB interest rates unchanged at its September 11, 2025, meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. These levels have been maintained after the cuts earlier in 2025, reflecting the Council’s confidence that the current stance is consistent with the price stability mandate.
• Evidence that inflation is running close to the ECB’s medium-term target of 2% supported the decision to hold rates steady. Domestic price pressures are easing as wage growth continues to moderate, and financing conditions remain accommodative. Policymakers reaffirmed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to further policy moves, with no pre-commitment to a predetermined path amid ongoing global and domestic risks.
• Eurosystem staff projections foresee headline inflation averaging 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% in 2027. The 2025 and 2026 forecasts reflect a downward revision, primarily on lower energy costs and exchange rate effects, even as food inflation remains persistent. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) is expected at 2.0% for both 2026 and 2027, with only minor changes since prior rounds.
• Real GDP growth in the euro area is projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. A robust first quarter—partly due to firms accelerating exports ahead of anticipated tariff hikes—cushioned a weaker outlook for the remainder of 2025. While business investment continues to face uncertainty from ongoing global trade disputes, especially with the US, government investment and infrastructure spending are expected to provide some support to the outlook..
• Household spending is backed by rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• Household spending is backed by rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• All future interest rate decisions will continue to be guided by the integrated assessment of economic and financial data, the inflation outlook, and underlying inflation dynamics, and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission—without any pre-commitment to a specific future rate path.
• The ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining predictably, as reinvestment of maturities has ceased. Balance-sheet normalization continues in line with the ECB’s previously communicated schedule.
• The next meeting is on 29 to 30 October 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc enters this week from a position of considerable strength, supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of US monetary easing. While the SNB appears likely to maintain its current 0% policy rate at the September 25 meeting, the central bank faces the delicate balance of managing franc strength while supporting economic growth amid significant US trade tensions. The 39% US tariff represents the most substantial external challenge, though the franc’s safe-haven status continues to attract global capital flows. Inflation remaining within the SNB’s target range provides some policy flexibility, though the central bank maintains that negative rates remain a potential tool if economic conditions worsen significantly.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.25% to 0% on 19 June 2025, marking the sixth consecutive reduction.
• Inflationary pressure has decreased further as compared to the previous quarter, decreasing from 0.3% in February to -0.1% in May, mainly attributable to lower prices in tourism and oil products.
• Compared to March, the new conditional inflation forecast is lower in the short term. In the medium term, there is hardly any change from March, putting the average annual inflation at 0.2% for 2025, 0.5% for 2026, and 0.7% for 2027.
• The global economy continued to grow at a moderate pace in the first quarter of 2025, but the global economic outlook for the coming quarters has deteriorated due to the increase in trade tensions.
• Swiss GDP growth was strong in the first quarter of 2025, but this development was largely because, as in other countries, exports to the U.S. were brought forward.
• Following the strong first quarter, growth is likely to slow again and remain rather subdued over the remainder of the year; the SNB expects GDP growth of 1% to 1.5% for 2025 as a whole, while also anticipating GDP growth of 1% to 1.5% for 2026.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 25 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Pound’s performance today reflects a complex interplay of factors. While Fed rate cut expectations provide near-term support, underlying UK economic weakness and persistent inflation challenges create headwinds. The combination of stagnant GDP growth, elevated inflation at 3.8%, and upcoming fiscal uncertainty around the November budget suggests Sterling’s gains may remain limited despite dollar weakness.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted on 7 August 2025 by a majority (exact split likely 5–3–1 or similar, based on expectations) to cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%. Multiple members supported the move, citing fragile economic growth and signs of disinflation, while others preferred a larger reduction, and at least one member voted to hold the rate steady due to concerns about persistent inflation.
• The Committee unanimously decided to continue reducing the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes by £100 billion over the next 12 months, targeting a balance of £558 billion by October 2025. As of 7 August, the gilt stock stands at £590 billion.
• Disinflation has been substantial since 2023 owing to policy tightening and the fading of external shocks. However, an unexpected uptick in headline CPI inflation—to 3.6% in June—reflects pass-through from regulated prices and earlier energy price rises, as well as signs of sticky core inflation.
• Headline CPI inflation is now 3.6%, above the Bank’s 2% target, reflecting regulated and energy price effects. The Committee expects inflation to remain around this level through Q3 before resuming its downward trend into 2026.
• UK GDP growth remains weak. Business and consumer surveys point to lackluster activity, and the labor market continues to loosen, with increasing evidence of slack. Wage growth has softened but remains above pre-pandemic norms.
• Pay growth and employment indicators have moderated further, and the Committee expects a significant slowing in pay settlements over the rest of 2025.
• Global uncertainty remains elevated, especially with rising energy prices and supply disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East and renewed trade tensions. These factors prompt the MPC to remain vigilant in monitoring cost and wage shocks.
• The risks to inflation are considered two-sided. With the outlook for growth subdued and inflation persistence less clear, the Committee argues that a gradual and careful approach to further easing is warranted, with future policy decisions highly data-dependent.
• The Committee’s bias is still towards maintaining monetary policy at a restrictive stance until there is firmer evidence that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target over the medium term. Further adjustments to policy will be decided on a meeting-by-meeting basis, with scrutiny of developments in demand, costs, and inflation expectations.
• The next meeting is on 18 September 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

Monday, September 15, 2025, represents a pivotal moment for the Canadian dollar as markets prepare for what appears to be an inevitable resumption of the Bank of Canada’s easing cycle. The combination of severe labor market deterioration, below-target inflation, trade-related economic disruption, and weak GDP growth has created a compelling case for monetary policy accommodation. With the loonie trading near multi-week lows and market expectations firmly positioned for rate cuts, Wednesday’s Bank of Canada announcement will be crucial for determining the currency’s near-term trajectory and the central bank’s commitment to supporting economic recovery amid challenging external conditions.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% as of July 30, marking the third consecutive meeting with rates on hold.
• The Council cited ongoing U.S. tariff adjustments and unresolved trade negotiations as key drivers of elevated economic uncertainty. The persistence of tariffs at levels well above those of early 2025 continues to present downside risks to growth and keeps inflation expectations elevated, supporting a cautious approach to monetary easing.
• The lack of a clear U.S. policy path, plus frequent threats of additional tariffs, led the Bank to highlight risks to Canadian exports and broader demand, amplifying uncertainty about future growth.
• Canada’s economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%, slightly stronger than the original forecast, while the composition of GDP growth was largely as expected. Consumption slowed from its very strong fourth-quarter pace, but continued to grow despite a large drop in consumer confidence.
• Canadian GDP growth is expected to be near 0% in Q2 2025, closely aligned with the more optimistic scenario outlined earlier in the year. Weakness in manufacturing activity—driven by both U.S. trade disruptions and sector-specific challenges like wildfires—contributed to softer output. A partial recovery is anticipated in Q3 due to rebuilding efforts and stronger retail sales in June.
• Consumer spending slowed, especially as households front-loaded durable goods purchases ahead of tariffs. Housing activity remains subdued, with resales and construction still soft despite some government tax relief measures.
• Headline CPI inflation continued to ease, holding close to 1.7% in June, aided by declines in energy prices following the removal of the fuel charge. However, the Bank’s measures of core inflation and underlying price pressures moved up further due to higher import costs from tariffs and lingering supply disruptions.
• The Governing Council reiterated that it will carefully weigh ongoing upward inflation pressure from tariffs and cost shocks against the gradual downward pull from economic weakness. While additional rate cuts remain possible, timing and scale will depend on trade policy developments and inflation’s path.
• The next meeting is on 17 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets on September 15, 2025, reflected the complex interplay between geopolitical tensions and fundamental supply-demand dynamics. While Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and Trump administration pressure on Russian oil trade provided immediate price support, underlying concerns about global oversupply and weakening demand growth continue to cap gains. The market remains in a delicate balance, with geopolitical events providing temporary rallies against the backdrop of an increasingly oversupplied global oil market heading into 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 15 September 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could continue to make a bearish fall toward the 1st support. 

Pivot: 98.63

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 97.12

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 100.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1711
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up

1st support: 1.1584
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1846
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already broken above the pivot and could continue to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 173.20
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 170.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 175.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8665

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify..

1st support: 0.8562
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8737
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could rise toward the pivot and make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3616

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify..

1st support: 1.3367
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3791
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already broken above the pivot and could continue to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 199.900
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 195.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 203.03
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could rise toward the pivot and make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8027

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.7894
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8169
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce off toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 146.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 144.86Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 150.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                                

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce off toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3755
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 1.3568

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4015

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is trading near the pivot and could make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6644

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6452

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6819
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5902
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 0.5789

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6122

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a bullish move toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 45,112.03
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 43,249.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 46,536.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could rise toward the pivot and could make a bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,008.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 23,153.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,639.02

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,504.87
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 6,418.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,594.14

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could rise toward the pivot and make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 117,395.83

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 112,817.38

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 123,217.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could continue to make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,862.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 3,853.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 5,225.73
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could continue to make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 63.97

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 57.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a oullback support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 68.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,501.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 3,434.23
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,643.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 15th September 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

It was another busy week for markets last week, with stocks again smashing new records and overall sentiment pushing higher on anticipated central bank moves.
This week will see that optimism tested as a plethora of major central banks deliver the latest rate calls to buoyant markets. The highlight is set to be the greatly anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve Bank, but we also have rate decisions from the central banks of the UK, Japan, and Canada to keep us busy, as well as some key data updates from major economies.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It is a busier first day of the trading week compared to recent Mondays, with key Chinese numbers including Industrial Production and Retail Sales set to kick off the day. There is little in the European session; however, the Empire State Manufacturing Index and a scheduled speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde should add to volatility in the US session.

There is little scheduled in the Asian session on Tuesday; however, big data starts to hit the market early in the London session. UK employment numbers are out early in the session before focus jumps across the Channel for the German ZEW Economic Sentiment data. The New York session sees a big data drop early in the day, with both the Canadian CPI data and the US Retail Sales numbers released at the same time.

Again, there is nothing of note on the calendar in the Asian session, but we will have a strong focus on UK markets early in the European day with CPI data due out in London before we again hear from the ECB’s Christine Lagarde. The week’s central bank activity kicks off in the New York session, with the initial focus north of the border for the Bank of Canada’s rate call before the big Federal Reserve update towards the end of the day.

Australian markets will be in focus early in the Asian session with the latest employment data due out. The London session sees the Bank of England update the market on its interest rate decision before New York opens, and we have the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data.

It is the Bank of Japan’s turn to make its interest rate call on Friday, and traders are expecting plenty of volatility in the Yen around the event. As always, the decision is expected sometime around lunchtime in Tokyo. A big week for UK markets is rounded out on Friday with Retail Sales data out early in the European day, before the focus moves to Canada again at the New York open with their Retail Sales numbers due out as well.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 15 September 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 15 September 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. overnight session was characterized by mixed inflationary signals that reinforced Fed easing expectations while maintaining caution about the pace of cuts. The August CPI’s 0.4% monthly rise exceeded expectations but was offset by deteriorating labor market conditions, creating a complex environment for policymakers.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should prepare for a potentially volatile but opportunity-rich session driven primarily by Fed rate cut expectations. The anticipated dollar weakness creates favorable conditions for Asian assets, while divergent regional central bank policies offer tactical trading opportunities. Key focus areas include Japanese trade data, currency positioning ahead of the Fed meeting, and continued monitoring of China’s economic trajectory. Geopolitical developments remain a wildcard that could override fundamental factors, particularly in commodity markets.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar enters the week of September 16, 2025, facing its most significant policy inflection point since late 2024. With the Fed widely expected to begin its easing cycle amid clear labor market deterioration, the dollar confronts both cyclical and structural headwinds. Technical indicators suggest further weakness ahead, with key support levels now in focus. While short-term positioning has stabilized, the fundamental backdrop of diverging global monetary policies and domestic political pressures points to continued dollar vulnerability in the near term.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50% at its meeting on July 29–30, 2025, keeping policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting.
• The Committee reiterated its objective of achieving maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. While uncertainty around the economic outlook has diminished since earlier in the year, the Committee notes that challenges remain and continued vigilance is warranted.
• Policymakers remain highly attentive to risks on both sides of their dual mandate. The unemployment rate remains low, near 4.2%–4.5%, and labor market conditions are described as solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated, with the PCE price index at 2.6% and a core inflation forecast of 3.1% for year-end 2025, up from earlier projections; tariff-related pressures are cited as a contributing factor.
• The Committee acknowledged that recent economic activity has expanded at a solid pace, with second-quarter annualized growth estimates near 2.4%. However, GDP growth for 2025 has been revised downward to 1.4% (from 1.7% projected in March), reflecting expectations of a slowdown in the coming quarters
• In the revised Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is expected to average 4.5% in 2025, and headline PCE inflation is forecast at 3.0% for the year, with core PCE at 3.1%. Policymakers continue to anticipate that inflation will moderate gradually, with ongoing risks from tariffs and global conditions.
• The Committee reaffirmed its data-dependent and risk-aware approach to future policy decisions. Officials stated they are prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede progress toward the Fed’s goals.
• As previously outlined, the Committee continues the measured run-off of its securities holdings. The pace of balance sheet reduction, which slowed since April (monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities reduced from $25B to $5B, while holding agency MBS cap steady at $35B), was left unchanged this month to support orderly market functioning and financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold enters Monday, September 15, 2025, in a strong fundamental position, supported by imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, robust central bank demand, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The combination of technical momentum near record highs and favorable macroeconomic conditions suggests continued bullish sentiment, with key resistance at $3,675 representing the next major hurdle. China’s regulatory streamlining adds another positive catalyst for medium-term demand, while the Fed’s decision on Wednesday will likely determine whether gold can sustain its breakout to new all-time highs above $3,700.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar is experiencing its strongest period in nearly a year, driven primarily by expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve easing rather than purely domestic factors. While technical indicators suggest continued upward momentum, the currency faces potential headwinds from China’s economic challenges and upcoming domestic employment data. The RBA’s September meeting is expected to maintain the status quo, with officials taking a data-dependent approach to future policy decisions. 

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at its September meeting on 8–9 September 2025, following a 25 basis point reduction at the August meeting. This maintains a cautious yet supportive stance, with the decision largely anticipated given recent evidence of inflation settling within the target band.
• Inflation readings continue to ease, with headline CPI most likely tracking near 2.1–2.3%—comfortably within the 2–3% target range. September quarter figures are pending, but leading indicators show further moderation in non-housing components, even as insurance and housing-related costs remain sticky.
• The RBA’s preferred trimmed mean inflation is estimated at around 2.7%–2.9%, further reflecting progress toward the midpoint of the target range. Energy and food volatility still create some short-term uncertainty, but underlying inflation is broadly on track.
• Global conditions are a key source of risk. While U.S.–EU trade tensions have stabilized slightly, volatility in equities and commodities persists, with uncertainty feeding through to Australia’s trade and export outlook.
• Domestic demand shows tentative improvement. Real household incomes and a stabilizing housing sector have underpinned modest consumption growth, though business investment remains uneven—service sectors outperforming manufacturing and construction.
• Labor market tightness persists, but momentum continues to slow from earlier in the year. Employment gains remain, but job vacancies and hiring intentions have softened, with underutilization rising marginally for the second straight month.
• Wage growth has slowed in line with easing labour pressures, but unit labour costs remain elevated due to weak productivity. The RBA continues to flag subdued productivity as a medium-term cost risk.
• Forward indicators suggest household consumption may be softer than previously forecast. Elevated rents and high borrowing costs are dampening discretionary spending, despite modest income recovery.
• The Board continues to highlight the risk that household spending could underperform, potentially weighing on business investment and job creation if confidence remains subdued.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, in line with greater inflation control and ongoing economic rebalancing. The decision to hold rates recognizes both progress and ongoing uncertainties, with future moves explicitly tied to incoming data.
• The Reserve Bank reinforced its goals of price stability and full employment, stating readiness to adjust policy if economic or inflation outcomes diverge from baseline projections.
• The next meeting is on 29 to 30 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar remains under pressure from dovish domestic monetary policy, with the RBNZ signaling further rate cuts to support the struggling economy. While global factors such as US Dollar weakness and positive China trade data have provided some support, the fundamental outlook for New Zealand continues to show economic weakness with declining GDP, rising unemployment, and contracting manufacturing activity. The currency’s trajectory will largely depend on the pace of the RBNZ’s easing cycle and broader global monetary policy developments, particularly from the Federal Reserve. Market participants should monitor upcoming GDP data and employment figures, which will be critical in determining whether the central bank delivers the expected additional 50 basis points of cuts by year-end.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.00% on 20 August 2025, marking a three-year low and continuing the easing cycle after July’s pause. The vote was split 4-2, with two members advocating a 50-basis-point cut, highlighting diverging views within the Committee.
• Policymakers indicated that significant uncertainty and a stalling economic recovery prompted this move, leaving the door open for further rate cuts later in the year, with a possible trough around 2.5% by December.
• Annual consumer price index inflation rose to 2.7% in the June quarter and is expected to reach 3% for the September quarter—at the upper end of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band—but medium-term expectations remain anchored near the 2% midpoint.
• Despite the near-term uptick, headline inflation is projected to return toward 2% by mid-2026, as tradables inflation pressures ease and significant spare capacity continues to dampen domestic price momentum.
• Domestic financial conditions are broadly aligning with MPC expectations, as lower wholesale rates have translated into reduced borrowing costs for households. However, declining consumption and investment demand, higher unemployment, and subdued wage growth reflect ongoing economic slack.
• GDP growth stalled in the second quarter of 2025, contrasting with earlier projections. High-frequency indicators point to continued weakness driven by rising prices for essentials, weakening household savings, and constrained business lending.
• The MPC cautioned that ongoing global tariff uncertainties and policy shifts, especially recent changes in US trade regulations, could amplify market volatility and present both upside and downside risks to New Zealand’s recovery.
• Subject to medium-term inflation pressures continuing to ease as projected, the MPC signaled scope for further OCR cuts, possibly down to 2.5% by year-end, consistent with the latest Monetary Policy Statement outlook.
• The next meeting is on 22 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen faces a complex environment on September 15, 2025, with political uncertainty from Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation creating short-term headwinds despite improving economic fundamentals. Manufacturing sentiment has reached three-year highs following the US-Japan tariff deal, and business confidence is turning positive across major firms. However, the upcoming BoJ meeting on September 18-19 will be crucial for determining the central bank’s policy direction amid persistent inflation above the 2% target and ongoing global trade uncertainties.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 31 July, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
• The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
• The BOJ will maintain its gradual reduction of monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). The scheduled amount of long-term government bond purchases will, in principle, continue to decrease by about ¥400 billion each quarter from January to March 2026, and by about ¥200 billion each quarter from April to June 2026 onward, targeting a purchase level near ¥2 trillion in January to March 2027.
• Japan’s economy is experiencing a moderate recovery overall, though some sectors remain sluggish. Overseas economies are generally growing moderately, but recent trade policies in major economies have introduced pockets of weakness. Exports and industrial production in Japan are essentially flat, with any uptick largely driven by front-loaded demand ahead of U.S. tariff increases.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices (excluding fresh food) remains in the mid-3% range. This reflects continued wage pass-through, previous import cost surges, and further increases in food prices, particularly rice. Expectations for future inflation have begun to rise moderately.
• The effects of the earlier import price and food cost increases are expected to fade during the outlook period. There may be a temporary stagnation in core inflation as overall growth momentum softens.
• Looking forward, the economy is likely to see a slower growth pace in the near term as overseas economies feel the pinch of ongoing global trade policies, putting downward pressure on Japanese corporate profits. Accommodative financial conditions are expected to buffer these headwinds somewhat. In the medium term, as global growth recovers, Japan’s growth rate is also expected to improve.
• With renewed economic expansion, intensifying labor shortages, and a steady rise in medium- to long-term expected inflation rates, core inflation is projected to gradually pick up. By the latter half of the BOJ’s projection period, inflation is forecast to move in line with the 2% price stability target.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 17 to 18 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets on Monday, September 15, 2025, face a challenging outlook characterized by modest OPEC+ production increases aimed at market share recovery, robust supply growth outpacing demand, and mixed inventory signals. While geopolitical tensions continue to provide price support, the underlying fundamentals suggest potential for further price weakness as anticipated supply surpluses materialize in 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 15 September 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Tech Stocks Push Higher into Weekend – Nasdaq up 0.44%

The Nasdaq hit another record close on Friday in a mixed day’s trading into the weekend, as investors continued to price in Fed rate cuts in the coming months. The Dow took a hit on the day, closing down 0.59% at 45,834; the S&P closed just 0.05% down at 6,584, while the Nasdaq added 0.44% to 22,141. US Treasury yields pulled back some of their recent declines, the 2-year up 1.4 basis points to 3.556% and the benchmark 10-year adding 4.4 basis points to 4.064%. The dollar remained steady against the majors, adding 0.09% to close at 97.62. Oil prices pushed higher after news of another Ukrainian drone strike on Russian oil facilities hit newswires, Brent up 0.93% to $66.99 and WTI up 0.51% to $62.69 a barrel, whilst gold also moved north on haven flows, up 0.24% on the day to $3,643.14 an ounce.

Central Banks in Focus This Week for FX Traders

The market is gearing up for some potentially big moves this week, with four major central banks due to make interest rate announcements in the next few days. Top of the list is the Federal Reserve Bank, which is well priced in to make a 25-basis-point cut on Wednesday; however, FX traders in particular are looking at some of its counterparts for better longer-term trading opportunities. The Bank of Canada is also expected to cut by 25 points earlier in the day on Wednesday, and we also have the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan set to make calls in the following days. Both are expected to keep rates steady; however, the forward guidance from all four banks is likely to provide interest rate differential trading opportunities, and this is where traders are expecting to see some strong moves in the coming days.

Busy Calendar Day to Kick Off the Trading Week

For a change on a Monday, there are a few scheduled events on the macroeconomic calendar today ahead of what is expected to be a lively week for financial markets. The Asian market may see liquidity slightly dampened by a Japanese bank holiday today, although traders are expecting to see moves during the session, especially midway through the day when some key Chinese data is released. Industrial Production (exp. +5.7% y/y) and Retail Sales (exp. +3.8% y/y) numbers are expected to dominate sentiment, with any significant deviations likely to trigger a strong reaction in local markets. There is little of note in the European session today, although we are set to hear from ECB President Christine Lagarde later in the day when she speaks from Paris, which could add some volatility to the euro. The New York session has just the Empire State Manufacturing Index data (exp. 4.3) due out; however, traders are expecting to see some market positioning ahead of the key Fed update later in the week.

The post General Market Analysis – 15/09/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.