The post Ex-Dividend 13/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Dow Surges on US Government Hopes – Dow up 1.2%

US equities pushed higher overnight, led by the Dow, which surged 1.18% to a fresh record close at 47,927 as optimism grew that the prolonged US government shutdown could finally end within days. The S&P 500 also gained ground, rising 0.21% to finish at 6,846, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.25% to 23,468 as investors rotated away from technology names. Bond markets were closed for the Veterans Day holiday, but in currency markets, the dollar edged lower, with the DXY moving down 0.12% to 99.47. In commodities, oil prices extended their recent rally, with Brent climbing 1.72% to $65.16 and WTI up 1.53% to $61.05, as traders priced in the likelihood of further US sanctions against Russia. Gold also advanced for a second session, adding 0.27% to reach $4,126.51, following Monday’s strong surge higher.

US Government Shutdown in Focus Today

The market will be keenly watching Washington, D.C., later today, with members of the U.S. House of Representatives headed back to the capital after a 53-day break for a vote that could end the shutdown. Most market participants fully expect the deal to pass through Congress and be signed by President Trump later this week, and US stocks have rallied well on that anticipation. However, what is not certain at the moment is when we will see the resumption of economic data, and whether we will have ‘catch-up’ data releases or just follow the scheduled release dates. On top of this, of course, investors will then need to see that the data follows recent patterns that will allow the well-priced-in Fed cut in December. So even though this is a great step in the right direction, there are still plenty of uncertainties ahead for the market that may see some strong corrections in the coming days.

Quiet Calendar Day Ahead for Traders

It is a quiet day ahead on the macro calendar, with no major data releases scheduled. However, traders expect volatility to remain elevated as all eyes turn to Washington for the anticipated congressional vote to end the government shutdown. There is very little of note on the calendar in the Asian session today, although we do hear from the RBA’s Assistant Governor Brad Jones, which could add some volatility to the Aussie. It is a similar situation in the European session today, with little scheduled, and so traders are expecting range-bound conditions ahead of the New York open. In addition to the congressional vote, we also have several Federal Reserve officials due to speak later in the session, with markets watching closely for any hints of a potential rate cut in Decemb

The post General Market Analysis – 12/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 99.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.1598

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 1.1537

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1669

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 177.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 176.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 178.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8749

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8718
Supporting reasons: Identified as overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8825
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3257

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3102
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3319
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 201.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 200.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 204.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.7987

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7938
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8037
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 152.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 151.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 154.45

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                          

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.4004

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3947

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4095

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.6515

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6447

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6621

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5689

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5614

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5760

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 47,416.67

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 46,601.64

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,048.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 23,723.86

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,334.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,218.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 6,805.54

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,696.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6.919.84

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 107,168.16

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 100,109.03

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 111,261.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 3,691.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 3,210.12

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,919.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 60.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 58.95
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 62.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,055.75

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 3,891.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,152.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

The post Wednesday 12th November 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 November 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. assets were broadly pressured overnight, with safe havens and select international equities benefitting from the data disruption and government uncertainty. The U.S. government shutdown disrupted scheduled macroeconomic releases, causing uncertainty across markets.​Investors rotated out of risk assets into gold, Bitcoin, and Treasuries.​Speculation about earlier Fed rate cuts increased due to the economic data blackout.​U.S. stocks and the dollar were among the most negatively impacted instruments, while gold, Bitcoin, and foreign equities saw gains.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian session centers on three critical catalysts: China’s October economic data revealing the effectiveness of Beijing’s stimulus measures, progress on ending the US government shutdown, and major tech earnings from Tencent and JD.com. The interplay between these factors will determine whether the recent risk-on rally continues or faces a correction. Traders should watch for signs of sustained Chinese consumer demand, manufacturing momentum, and property market stabilization, while monitoring crude oil reactions to OPEC and IEA reports.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar faces a critical juncture. The imminent government shutdown resolution should restore official economic data flows, but may reveal labor market weakness that supports further Fed easing. The November 13 CPI report will be pivotal. Stronger inflation could delay December rate cuts and support the dollar, while softer readings would reinforce dovish expectations and pressure the greenback.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is maintaining strong upward momentum, trading near three-week highs around $4,131 per ounce. The rally is supported by multiple converging factors: resolution of the 42-day US government shutdown removes fiscal uncertainty while shifting focus to deteriorating US debt dynamics; growing expectations for a 64-67% probability of a December Fed rate cut following dovish comments from Fed Governor Miran.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar faces a complex outlook as November 12 approaches. While consumer confidence has surged to seven-year highs and progress toward ending the US government shutdown has improved risk sentiment, persistent inflation has forced the RBA to maintain a cautious stance that may limit further rate cuts. The labor market is showing signs of weakness with unemployment at four-year highs, while key commodity exports face pressure from subdued Chinese demand and elevated inventories.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar faces a challenging outlook, trading near seven-month lows around 0.5640 against the US Dollar. The currency is pressured by expectations of further RBNZ rate cuts (25 basis points almost certain on November 26), weak domestic economic data, including 5.3% unemployment, six consecutive declines in dairy prices, and the NZD hitting 12-year lows against the Australian Dollar.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025, exceeding market expectations for a smaller 25-basis-point reduction and signaling a stronger commitment to reviving growth.
• The decision was reached by consensus, marking a shift from previous split votes, and reflected policymakers’ shared view that sustained economic weakness and persistent disinflationary pressures required a more front-loaded policy response.
• Annual consumer price inflation stood at 2.7% in the June quarter and is seen nearing 3% for the September quarter—above the 2% midpoint but within the 1–3% target range. Despite high near-term readings, the MPC projects inflation will return toward 2% by the first half of 2026 as spare capacity and moderating tradables curb price momentum.
• Policymakers acknowledged that domestic demand remains weak, with household spending, business investment, and construction activity under pressure. While still elevated, services inflation is expected to ease gradually as wage growth slows and unemployment edges higher.
• Financial conditions have eased with expectations as wholesale and retail borrowing rates adjust to lower policy settings. Bank lending data indicate a modest uptick in mortgage approvals, though broader credit demand remains subdued.
• GDP growth stalled in the middle of 2025, with high-frequency indicators showing continued weakness into the third quarter. A combination of elevated costs for essentials and falling savings continues to restrain household consumption, while global trade frictions weigh on business sentiment.
• The MPC noted that global uncertainty—particularly from US trade regulation changes and soft Chinese demand—continues to pose downside risks to export sectors, though these are partly offset by a weaker New Zealand dollar improving competitiveness.
• Subject to data confirming a sustained soft patch in activity and moderating inflation pressures, the MPC signaled further scope to reduce the OCR toward 2.25% at its next meeting on 26 November 2025, consistent with current market and Westpac forecasts.
• The next meeting is on 26 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen continues to face downward pressure as it trades near nine-month lows around 154.00-154.50 against the U.S. dollar. Uncertainty about the Bank of Japan’s next rate hike timing is the primary driver, despite two dissenting votes at the October meeting and growing hawkish sentiment among policymakers. The critical challenge remains confirming sustainable wage growth, as real wages have declined for nine consecutive months even as inflation stays above 2%. Prime Minister Takaichi’s incoming stimulus package and political pressure for accommodative policy add complexity to the BoJ’s decision-making.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA crude oil inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets are navigating a complex landscape characterized by oversupply concerns, subdued demand growth, and geopolitical uncertainties. While prices edged higher on Monday following optimism about the US government shutdown resolution, the fundamental picture remains bearish. OPEC+’s production pause for Q1 2026, Saudi Arabia’s significant price cuts for Asian buyers, and persistent inventory builds all point to a well-supplied market.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 12 November 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Today’s Asian session was characterized by cautiously optimistic sentiment driven primarily by the impending end to the US government shutdown, which lifted risk appetite across equity markets. However, gains were uneven, with sector-specific stories dominating individual market movements. The standout Japanese business confidence data suggests resilience in the world’s third-largest economy, supporting the case for BOJ policy normalization.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
The US Senate passed a funding bill on November 11 in a 60-40 vote, potentially ending the longest government shutdown in US history after 41 days. The House is expected to vote on the legislation as early as Wednesday afternoon, November 13, before sending it to President Trump for signing. The bill extends funding for most agencies until January 30, 2026, while including full-year funding bills for some parts of the government. This development has boosted market optimism, with equity futures rising and the US dollar weakening.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is under pressure as deteriorating labor market conditions, collapsing consumer sentiment, and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut weigh on the currency. The DXY trades around 99.46-99.55, near multi-week lows, down 6.05% over the past year. Private-sector job losses averaged 11,250 per week through late October, while consumer sentiment fell to a 3.5-year low of 50.3. Markets now price in a 68% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, up from 62% a day earlier.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s performance reflects a confluence of supportive factors positioning the precious metal for continued strength. The convergence of mounting Federal Reserve rate cut expectations (64-67% probability for December), dollar weakness, resolution of the U.S. government shutdown, and robust central bank buying (634 tonnes through September) has propelled gold to four consecutive sessions of gains around $4,130 per ounce.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro is consolidating near two-week highs around $1.1575 on November 12, 2025, supported by diverging monetary policy paths between the ECB and Federal Reserve. While the ECB maintains its cautious “data-dependent” stance with rates on hold and only a 40% chance of cuts by September 2026, the Fed continues easing amid weakening US labor market data. Eurozone economic fundamentals remain mixed: Q3 GDP growth of 0.2% meets expectations, inflation has eased to 2.1% (close to the ECB’s 2% target), and economic sentiment improved to 25.0 in November.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, aided by stable banking sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc strengthened significantly, driven primarily by optimism that Switzerland will secure a trade deal reducing US tariffs from 39% to 15% within the next two weeks. This news lifted Swiss watchmaker stocks and provided relief to an export-oriented economy that has seen its GDP growth forecasts slashed due to tariff impacts. The SNB maintains its policy rate at 0% with Chairman Schlegel indicating rates will remain on hold for an extended period, as inflation remains subdued at 0.1% in October.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound faces mounting pressure from weak labour market data that has shifted expectations sharply toward a December rate cut by the Bank of England. With unemployment at a four-year high and wage growth slowing to multi-year lows, markets now see a three-in-four chance of rates being reduced to 3.75% next month. The currency traded around 1.3166 against the dollar, with technical resistance at 1.3200 and support at 1.3100.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted by a majority of 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their vote for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar is showing resilience, rebounding from recent seven-month lows as strong domestic labor data and rising oil prices provide fundamental support, though ongoing US trade tensions and recession concerns continue to weigh on the currency’s outlook. Inflation is sticky at 2.4% with core measures at 3%, ongoing US tariff uncertainty with rates up to 35%, 35% recession probability within six months, massive budget deficit of C$78 billion, and suspended trade negotiations with the US.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to cap overall resale volumes, leading to only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA crude oil inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

The oil market remains cautious and range-bound today, with prices leveling off below recent highs as the industry awaits fresh supply/demand forecasts from OPEC and the IEA. Key market forces include a potential global supply glut, ongoing OPEC+ production increases, the effects of US sanctions on Russian flows, and demand shifts in major consuming countries. Expect continued volatility and headline-driven moves until new supply and demand data clarify the near-term trend.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 12 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down -0.34%, Shanghai Composite down -0.28%, Hang Seng up 0.52% ASX down -0.01%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,118.95 (0.04%), Silver at $50.925 (0.36%), Brent Oil at $64.93 (-0.35%), WTI Oil at $60.81 (-0.38%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.079, UK 10-year yield at 4.3880, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6574

News & Data:

• (GBP) Claimant Count Change  29.0K  to 17.6K expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher on Wednesday, following mixed cues from Wall Street overnight, amid optimism that the record 42-day U.S. government shutdown may soon end and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. The Senate’s approval of a bill to end the shutdown lifted investor sentiment, as traders shifted focus to upcoming U.S. economic data for clarity on the Fed’s policy path. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 67.6% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 is up 0.22% at 8,838.10, supported by gains in mining and energy stocks. Mineral Resources surged over 9% after selling a 30% stake in its lithium business to South Korea’s POSCO. BHP and Rio Tinto also gained over 1%. In contrast, tech stocks like Xero and Zip declined nearly 2%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.17% to 50,927.29, with gains in automakers and financials offsetting losses in tech shares. SoftBank tumbled nearly 6% after selling its $5.8 billion Nvidia stake to refocus on OpenAI investments.

Elsewhere in Asia, markets in China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore are up between 0.2% and 1.1%. On Wall Street, the Dow gained 1.18%, the S&P 500 rose 0.21%, while the NASDAQ slipped 0.25%.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD Building Permits m/m

The post Wednesday 12th November 2025: Asian Markets Advance on Hopes of U.S. Shutdown Resolution and Fed Rate Cut first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 12/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Markets Rally After Potential Shutdown Deal – Nasdaq up 2.27%

US markets rallied strongly overnight as optimism grew that the prolonged government shutdown could finally come to an end this week after the Senate approved a key funding deal. The upbeat mood sent all three major indices sharply higher, with the Dow climbing 0.81% to close at 47,368, the S&P 500 surging 1.54% to finish at 6,832, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the way with a 2.27% gain to 23,527. The dollar also moved further north, with the DXY edging up 0.07% to 99.63, while Treasury yields also firmed. The 2-year yield rose 2.7 basis points to 3.589%, and the 10-year increased by 1.9 basis points to 4.116%. Commodities were also active, with oil prices continuing to push north amid ongoing supply concerns. Brent crude added 0.64% to settle at $64.03, while WTI gained 0.59% to close at $60.10. Gold was one of the standout performers of the session, surging 2.86% to $4,115.76 as it broke out of recent consolidation ranges.

UK Data in Focus for Sterling Traders This Week

Sterling traders are expecting another busy week with some key data due out that could move Bank of England rate expectations significantly. Key concerns for the MPC, which had increased chances of a rate cut last week, have been both the jobs market and economic growth, and we have data from both in the days ahead this week. Tonight, we see key jobs data hitting the market, with expectations that the Claimant Count and Unemployment Rate will both tick up again, while later in the week GDP data is expected to fall on both a monthly and quarterly basis. The market is now pricing in a 75% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in December, and significant prints away from expectations in the data this week could see big moves in both Cable and sterling crosses.

Busy Day Ahead for Traders

It’s shaping up to be a busier day today, with traders bracing for increased volatility following yesterday’s strong market moves and some key risk events also scheduled. The Asian market will open on the front foot after those strong moves on Wall Street last night; however, the focus will move to New Zealand midway through the day with key Inflation Expectations data (last 2.28%) due out. UK markets will be in focus shortly after the London open with key employment numbers due — the Claimant Count (exp. +17.6K), Average Earnings Index (exp. 5.0%), and Unemployment Rate (exp. 4.9%) are all released at the same time, and traders are expecting plenty of moves in the pound around the event. Liquidity could tighten later in the day, however, with both US and Canadian markets closed for holidays, which could see some moves exacerbated, especially after yesterday’s volatility.

The post General Market Analysis – 11/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish                               

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 99.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 99.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 100.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1598

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 1.1537

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1669

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 177.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 176.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 178.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8749

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8718
Supporting reasons: Identified as overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8825
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3257

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3102
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3409
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot:201.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 200.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 204.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8076

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8009
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8127
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 152.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 151.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 154.45

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                          

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.4002

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3947

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4095

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.6515

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6447

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6621

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5689

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5614

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5760

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 47,416.67

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 46,601.64

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,048.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 23,723.86

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,334.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,218.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 6,834.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 6,696.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6.919.84

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 107,168.16

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 103,540

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 111,232.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 3,691.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 3,464.08

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,919.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 58.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 57.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 61.08
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,055.75

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 3,891.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,152.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 50% FIbonacci retracememnt and the the 127.2% Fibonacci projection , indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

The post Tuesday 11th November 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 November 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Overnight, U.S. financial markets were driven by optimism around ending the government shutdown, resulting in rallies in equities and metals, a weaker U.S. dollar, and volatile movements in digital assets. Most recent macroeconomic indicators were consistent with moderate inflation, while some scheduled releases remained delayed due to the shutdown.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The inflation expectations release could influence the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate outlook. Higher-than-previous inflation expectations may boost NZD sentiment.UK labor indicators (the claimant count and earnings) are crucial for gauging consumer health and the BOE’s policy bias. Both appear stable/improved this month. Be prepared for increased volatility around the release times, especially if figures deviate sharply from consensus

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar is showing signs of resilience amid cautious optimism about US economic data, global central bank policies, and hopes that a US government shutdown may soon end. The dollar index (DXY) has snapped a brief losing streak and remains supported by firm economic performance, persistent inflation, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will be slow to lower interest rates further this year.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices surged on Tuesday, November 11, 2025, reaching multi-week highs driven by weak US economic data and heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. Currently, gold is trading around $4,096 per troy ounce. The gold market is expected to remain volatile in the coming weeks, with estimates suggesting prices may rise modestly through November due to ongoing geopolitical and economic concerns.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has shown volatility, largely influenced by global risk sentiment, recent statements from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and movements in commodity markets. The AUD/USD exchange rate recently climbed above 0.65, reaching a one-week high after hawkish comments from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who stressed the necessity of holding monetary policy tight to contain inflation.​ Over the past month, the Australian Dollar has strengthened by 0.26%, though it is still down by 0.71% over the last year.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

Inflation expectations q/q (2:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar remains under pressure, and traders are closely watching for major economic releases and signs of a bottom near $0.5500 in the days ahead.​ The general consensus among analysts is that any sustainable recovery for NZD will be dependent on stabilization in global risk sentiment and tangible improvements in the New Zealand economy.​If NZD/USD breaks below the historical support area near 0.5500, it could signal a dramatic downturn and possibly prompt new rounds of policy measures from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025, exceeding market expectations for a smaller 25-basis-point reduction and signaling a stronger commitment to reviving growth.
• The decision was reached by consensus, marking a shift from previous split votes, and reflected policymakers’ shared view that sustained economic weakness and persistent disinflationary pressures required a more front-loaded policy response.
• Annual consumer price inflation stood at 2.7% in the June quarter and is seen nearing 3% for the September quarter—above the 2% midpoint but within the 1–3% target range. Despite high near-term readings, the MPC projects inflation will return toward 2% by the first half of 2026 as spare capacity and moderating tradables curb price momentum.
• Policymakers acknowledged that domestic demand remains weak, with household spending, business investment, and construction activity under pressure. While still elevated, services inflation is expected to ease gradually as wage growth slows and unemployment edges higher.
• Financial conditions have eased with expectations as wholesale and retail borrowing rates adjust to lower policy settings. Bank lending data indicate a modest uptick in mortgage approvals, though broader credit demand remains subdued.
• GDP growth stalled in the middle of 2025, with high-frequency indicators showing continued weakness into the third quarter. A combination of elevated costs for essentials and falling savings continues to restrain household consumption, while global trade frictions weigh on business sentiment.
• The MPC noted that global uncertainty—particularly from US trade regulation changes and soft Chinese demand—continues to pose downside risks to export sectors, though these are partly offset by a weaker New Zealand dollar improving competitiveness.
• Subject to data confirming a sustained soft patch in activity and moderating inflation pressures, the MPC signaled further scope to reduce the OCR toward 2.25% at its next meeting on 26 November 2025, consistent with current market and Westpac forecasts.
• The next meeting is on 26 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events

What can we expect from JPY today?

As of Thursday, the Japanese yen faces multiple crosscurrents. The Bank of Japan is signaling an increasingly likely rate hike in December or January, with board members seeing normalization conditions nearly met, contingent on sustained wage growth. Inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target at 2.9%, driven by food prices and energy costs. However, the yen’s appreciation potential is constrained by Prime Minister Takaichi’s aggressive fiscal stimulus plans and explicit calls for accommodative monetary policy.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API crude oil stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets are navigating a complex landscape characterized by oversupply concerns, subdued demand growth, and geopolitical uncertainties. While prices edged higher on Monday following optimism about the US government shutdown resolution, the fundamental picture remains bearish. OPEC+’s production pause for Q1 2026, Saudi Arabia’s significant price cuts for Asian buyers, and persistent inventory builds all point to a well-supplied market.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.57%, Shanghai Composite down -0.38%, Hang Seng down -0.37% ASX down -0.17%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,150.60 (0.69%), Silver at $50.776 (0.93%), Brent Oil at $64.00 (-0.09%), WTI Oil at $60.06 (-0.12%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.120, UK 10-year yield at 4.4640, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6658

News & Data:

• (EUR) Sentix Investor Confidence  -7.4  to -3.9 expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are trading mixed on Tuesday, following the broadly positive cues from Wall Street overnight, as traders welcome progress toward ending the record U.S. government shutdown. The U.S. Senate has begun voting on a temporary funding package to reopen the government, fueling optimism among investors. The move is expected to resume the release of key U.S. economic data ahead of next month’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. Traders also anticipate that signs of a slowing U.S. economy could push the Fed toward rate cuts.

The Australian market is slightly lower, with weakness in financial and tech sectors offsetting gains in mining and energy stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 is down 0.13 percent at 8,824.70. BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue are marginally higher, while Mineral Resources gains over 4 percent. Oil stocks are mostly higher, and gold miners are rallying strongly. Among banks, Commonwealth Bank is down more than 6 percent, while Westpac and ANZ are up over 1 percent each.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is up 0.43 percent at 51,131.28, led by gains in SoftBank and Fast Retailing. Data showed bank lending rose 4.1 percent annually in October, while Japan’s current account surplus jumped 191.6 percent on year. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea and Singapore are higher, while China and Indonesia are slightly lower.

Upcoming Events:

• 07:00 AM GMT – GBP Claimant Count Change

The post Tuesday 11th November 2025: Asian Markets Mixed as U.S. Senate Moves to End Government Shutdown first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 11 November 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
The Asia session was dominated by risk-on market tone, thanks to hopes of a US government shutdown resolution and strong gains in US equities overnight.​Macroeconomic data from New Zealand and the UK produced mild currency moves, with no surprises from NZD inflation and a modestly negative outcome for GBP.​​ Gold surged on lingering risk-hedging needs, while Asian equity benchmarks broadly advanced.​The JPY was the session’s biggest FX mover, weakening as traders shifted toward riskier assets.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Global markets are experiencing a relief rally as progress toward ending the U.S. government shutdown removes a major source of uncertainty, with equities, gold, and risk assets all gaining. Key economic data from the UK this morning showed persistent wage pressures despite slowing growth, while traders await the ZEW sentiment survey and ECB commentary from Europe. The recent U.S.-China trade truce has provided temporary stability, though structural tensions remain. Federal Reserve officials are deeply divided on December rate cut prospects, with markets pricing in roughly 63% probability of easing.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar remains in a holding pattern as traders balance optimism about the potential end to the government shutdown against concerns about economic growth, consumer sentiment near multi-year lows, and uncertainty over the Fed’s rate path. With US banks closed for Veterans Day, market focus will shift to Fed speaker commentary on Wednesday for further clues about December policy. The fundamental backdrop favors caution, with the dollar likely to remain range-bound until key economic data resumes and provides clarity on the trajectory of growth and inflation.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s strong performance reflects a convergence of supportive factors, including rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid weak economic data, progress toward resolving the U.S. government shutdown, continued central bank purchases led by China, a softer U.S. dollar, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The precious metal has broken through the psychologically significant $4,100 level, reaching a three-week high.
Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro is consolidating near 1.1555 after recovering from early November lows. While the currency has stabilized, analysts expect continued range-bound trading with downside risks toward 1.1445 and upside potential capped around 1.1605-1.1835. The ECB’s commitment to holding rates steady contrasts with potential Fed easing, though persistent eurozone growth concerns and investor morale deterioration temper bullish expectations.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, aided by stable banking sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc exhibits mixed performance, maintaining long-term strength from safe-haven demand while showing short-term volatility against the dollar. Key developments include unexpectedly weak October inflation (0.1% y/y) sparking speculation about potential SNB rate cuts below zero, though policymakers currently signal comfort with the 0% rate until the December 11 meeting. The franc faces structural pressures from punitive US tariffs (39% on most goods), prompting downward revisions to Swiss growth forecasts for 2025-2026 to 1.3% and 0.9% respectively.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Claimant Count Change (7:00 am GMT)

Average Earnings Index 3m/y (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound faces a pivotal week as critical employment data released today will significantly influence the Bank of England’s December rate decision. With Governor Bailey positioned as the swing voter favoring data-dependent easing, worse-than-expected unemployment or wage figures could cement expectations for a pre-Christmas rate cut. The upcoming Autumn Budget on November 26 adds further uncertainty, with potential tax increases weighing on the currency’s medium-term outlook.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted by a majority of 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their vote for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bullish 

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar strengthened on November 11, 2025, with USD/CAD trading around 1.4020 as robust employment data, higher oil prices, and US Dollar weakness supported the loonie. Canada added 66,600 jobs in October versus expectations of a 2,500 decline, pushing unemployment down to 6.9% and wages up to 3.5% year-over-year. This data reinforces expectations that the Bank of Canada may pause its rate-cutting cycle after lowering rates to 2.25% in October.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to cap overall resale volumes, leading to only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

API crude oil stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices slipped as oversupply concerns continue to weigh on market sentiment despite recent US sanctions on major Russian oil producers. WTI traded near $60 per barrel while Brent hovered around $64, with both benchmarks consolidating after a modest Monday gain. The market faces a growing surplus as OPEC+ increases production by 137,000 barrels per day monthly while global demand growth remains anemic at just 710,000 barrels per day—far below historical averages.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 11 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.