At long last, the US government is back in action, and the market will get its first major jobs data update in the New York trading session on Thursday. There has been a lot of volatility in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations in the last couple of weeks, with the market initially pricing in strongly a further 25-basis point cut from the FOMC in December, before the data vacuum weighed enough on sentiment to more than halve those expectations. Currently, the market is pricing in a 47% chance that the Fed will cut 25 basis points against 53% on a hold. These expectations could change dramatically if we see Thursday’s Non-Farm Payroll data come in significantly off expectations.

The market is pricing in the headline NFP number to come in around +60k for the month of September, with the Unemployment Rate remaining steady at 4.3% and the Average Hourly Earnings number coming in at a 0.3% month-on-month increase. Traders are expecting the impact of this data to be exacerbated due to the long delay and data vacuum that we have experienced, so anything much weaker than expected should see Fed rate cut expectations jump and the dollar fall, while an against-trend higher print should knock out the December cut and see the dollar rally strongly.

The Euro is set up nicely ahead of the data release, with technical levels close on both sides that should lead to good trading opportunities. It is currently sitting in the middle of the range on the Daily chart, with good trendline support coming in around 1.1535 and resistance around 1.1630. Results +/- 30k on the Non-Farm headline number should see these levels tested, with higher misses likely to lead to good break trade opportunities.

Resistance 2: 1.1655 – November High
Resistance 1: 1.1630 – Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 1.1535 – Trendline Support
Support 2: 1.1468 – November Low

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The post Trade the Euro on the Delayed Non-Farm Payrolls first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 20/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Drop Again – Nasdaq off 1.2%

US equities drifted lower again overnight as valuation concerns kept investors on the defensive ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release, due after the bell tonight. The Dow fell 1.07% to close at 46,091, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.83% to 6,617 and the Nasdaq dropped 1.21% to 22,432. The US dollar was little changed, with the DXY edging up 0.02% to 99.61. Treasury markets were steadier, with yields easing ahead of the latest Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes. The 2-year yield slipped 3.8 basis points to 3.573%, while the 10-year yield declined 2.5 basis points to 4.113%. Oil prices pushed higher in choppy trading as markets continued to digest the impact of sanctions on Russian crude. Brent rose 0.89% to $64.77, and WTI gained 1.25% to $60.66. Gold also found some support, lifting 0.62% off support levels to $4,069.51.

Gold to Trade on Dollar Sentiment in Coming Days

Gold has remained trading in a volatile manner in recent weeks but has stuck to a wider range as a variety of changing factors have led to strong rallies followed by equally strong descents. Recent reports that some major central bank players are now confirming – through data rather than any announcements – that they have been actively buying the world’s favourite precious metal over the last few months have answered a few questions for experienced traders with regard to the huge move up after the early September break of the previous record level. However, traders are now looking for fundamentals to reinforce moves in one direction or another. Gold bounced nicely off support levels overnight as some good buying flows came through the market, but traders are now expecting more moves on fundamentals, initially off the Fed Meeting Minutes tonight and then off the delayed September Non-Farm Payrolls data tomorrow. These should both see the dollar side of the equation dominate sentiment with regard to moves, at least for the next few sessions.

Busy Day Ahead for Traders

It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar today, with some key data due out across the sessions before we hit the Fed Meeting Minutes near the end of the day. Australian markets are again in focus during the Asian session, with Wage Price Index data (exp +0.8%) due out early in the day. There is key UK data due out in the European session, with the CPI figures (exp +3.5% y/y) the main market mover of a big data dump early in the day. In the US session, traders will be watching the weekly Crude Oil Inventory numbers (exp -1.9 million barrels) earlier in the day before attention shifts to the FOMC Meeting Minutes a few hours before the close and Nvidia’s highly anticipated results update.

The post General Market Analysis – 19/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 19 November 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Australian wage data was the headline macroeconomic release, and it limited AUD volatility and provided a neutral backdrop for local equities. Japanese data releases were absent, but ongoing stimulus pressures slightly weakened the JPY. Asian equities opened positively, mirroring some overnight gains, but remained mixed as traders reassessed risk amid global interest rate outlooks and China’s FDI data. The USD stayed in focus ahead of key FOMC communications, with potential for increased volatility later in the session

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Asian markets faced downside pressure in the session as investors digested weak macroeconomic signals from China, steady Australian labor data, and doubts about rapid Fed easing. The Nikkei 225 and Japanese government bonds led the selloff, with tech and retail stocks in focus. Diverging monetary policy expectations and ongoing rate concerns shaped currency and equity moves

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

FOMC Meeting Minutes (7:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar (USD) centers around market positioning ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, which remains the day’s key event for trader sentiment and price action. In early market moves, the dollar has been relatively stable, with investors awaiting insight into the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, particularly regarding interest rate cuts and overall economic outlook.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

FOMC Meeting Minutes (7:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices on Wednesday showed a continuation of high volatility, reflecting both recent corrections and underlying bullish sentiment in global markets. Despite short-term pullbacks, gold remains strongly supported as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainty and changing expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold traded around $4,070 to $4,080 per troy ounce in the early hours, showing a slight rebound after recent declines.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

Today, Euro sentiment is dominated by global risk trends, cautious trading ahead of US news, and persistent technical pressure against the US dollar. The ECB’s steady stance and lack of dramatic Eurozone news suggest limited upside, with fragile support levels and possible volatility around major US events. The EUR/USD currency pair is hovering near 1.1590, reflecting broad weakness versus the US dollar with short-term bearish technical outlooks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, aided by stable banking sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

Today’s picture for CHF is sturdy, with technical signals suggesting some potential near-term uptick for USD/CHF, but the broader medium-term trend still favors the Swiss Franc due to its safe-haven status and recent trade developments. Expect heightened volatility around key U.S. data releases and FOMC minutes later in the day.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

CPI y/y (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Pound is under pressure due to softer inflation, increased expectations of a Bank of England rate cut, and uncertainty regarding the forthcoming UK Budget. Market participants are closely watching fiscal announcements for their impact on economic growth and GBP direction in the coming weeks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted by a majority of 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar is trading near 1.40 per USD today, buoyed by solid labor data and fading inflation concerns, but faces ongoing pressure from interest rate differentials and US Dollar strength. Political stability has helped support CAD, while technical and macroeconomic forecasts indicate continued range-bound trading with medium-term upside possible if US monetary policy loosens or commodities rally.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to cap overall resale volumes, leading to only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
WeaK Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets today are focused on the impact of new Russian sanctions, the resilience of supply routes after attacks, and the risk of oversupply due to increasing global production. Prices have edged lower from recent highs, with Brent at about $64 and WTI near $59, as the market weighs geopolitical risks against macroeconomic supply-demand dynamics.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 19 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 19 November 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session overnight was marked by a continuation of global equity weakness, led by tech and AI names, amid renewed fears over stretched valuations and delayed macroeconomic data from the U.S. government shutdown. Safe-haven flows benefited Treasuries and select currencies, while commodities and digital assets retreated further. This environment set the stage for heightened volatility as traders await incoming U.S. economic releases and pivotal tech earnings, which are expected to drive market direction in the coming days.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

US and Chinese macro headlines remain dominant themes, as Asia’s session is shaped by global policy shifts and cross-border capital flows. Market attention is on further AI-sector volatility, the pace of US dollar moves, the reaction to US government shutdown news, and any changes flagged in Japanese monetary policy.​ Anticipation for China’s later-in-week numbers and any signals from US inflation data or Federal Reserve statements continue to set the tone.​

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

FOMC Meeting Minutes (7:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar is expected to react to the FOMC minutes, with market participants seeking clarity on future monetary policy. The release of delayed economic data could further influence dollar sentiment in the coming days. Overall, traders should watch for increased volatility and rate adjustments as new information becomes available.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressure but still warranting vigilance amid tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

FOMC Meeting Minutes (7:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices have experienced a corrective phase, settling near the $4,000 mark amid cautious global sentiment and pre-positioning ahead of key U.S. data releases, including the FOMC meeting minutes and jobs figures. Market participants are closely watching for signals regarding Federal Reserve policy, which could impact rate expectations and the dollar, thus affecting gold’s direction for the remainder of November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Wage Price Index q/q (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar is likely to continue trading within its established range unless prompted by sharp shifts in Chinese data, US Federal Reserve policy, or local employment/inflation surprises. The RBA remains inclined to hold rates steady, and near-term volatility will likely be driven by global risk sentiment and commodity price fluctuations.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on Wednesday, 19th November 2025, indicates continued weakness due to expectations of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The NZD/USD hovered around 0.5660, reflecting muted risk sentiment and sluggish economic data, with speculation that the RBNZ will cut rates further in response to a slowing economy and inflation pressures.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025, exceeding market expectations for a smaller 25-basis-point reduction and signaling a stronger commitment to reviving growth.
• The decision was reached by consensus, marking a shift from previous split votes, and reflected policymakers’ shared view that sustained economic weakness and persistent disinflationary pressures required a more front-loaded policy response.
• Annual consumer price inflation stood at 2.7% in the June quarter and is seen nearing 3% for the September quarter—above the 2% midpoint but within the 1–3% target range. Despite high near-term readings, the MPC projects inflation will return toward 2% by the first half of 2026 as spare capacity and moderating tradables curb price momentum.
• Policymakers acknowledged that domestic demand remains weak, with household spending, business investment, and construction activity under pressure. While still elevated, services inflation is expected to ease gradually as wage growth slows and unemployment edges higher.
• Financial conditions have eased with expectations as wholesale and retail borrowing rates adjust to lower policy settings. Bank lending data indicate a modest uptick in mortgage approvals, though broader credit demand remains subdued.
• GDP growth stalled in the middle of 2025, with high-frequency indicators showing continued weakness into the third quarter. A combination of elevated costs for essentials and falling savings continues to restrain household consumption, while global trade frictions weigh on business sentiment.
• The MPC noted that global uncertainty—particularly from US trade regulation changes and soft Chinese demand—continues to pose downside risks to export sectors, though these are partly offset by a weaker New Zealand dollar improving competitiveness.
• Subject to data confirming a sustained soft patch in activity and moderating inflation pressures, the MPC signaled further scope to reduce the OCR toward 2.25% at its next meeting on 26 November 2025, consistent with current market and Westpac forecasts.
• The next meeting is on 26 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen remains under pressure as fiscal expansion and accommodative monetary policy signals dominate headlines. Exchange rate volatility and persistent softness have prompted direct warnings from Japanese officials, raising the risk of FX intervention. Technical forecasters note possible short-term corrections if resistance levels hold, but warn of continued weakness unless government and central bank actions change course dramatically.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are trading in a narrow range, with WTI crude futures last seen around $59.5–$60 per barrel and ICE Brent in the $62–66 range. The market remains subdued as concerns about excess global supply and upcoming sanctions against Russian oil majors, effective November 21, drive cautious sentiment among major buyers like China, India, and Turkey. The reopening of Russia’s Novorossiysk port after a Ukrainian attack has eased immediate supply risks, contributing to price stability in recent days.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 19 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 99.35

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 99.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1577

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1537

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1650

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 178.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 177.13
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 180.73
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.8817

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 0.8751
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8865
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3257

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3102
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3319
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 203.11

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 201.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 205.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7975

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7892
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8037
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 154.38

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 153.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 155.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                          

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3986

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3907

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4073

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.6513

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 0.6458

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6575

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.5689

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 0.5614

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5760

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 46,458.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 45,767.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 47,020.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 23,429.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 22,803.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,940.12

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 6,675.17

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 6,590.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,746.72

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 98,751.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 88,804.26

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 105,022.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3,2900.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,667.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,666.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 59.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 57.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance:61.12
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,111.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,010.48
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,217.81
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 19th November 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.25%, Shanghai Composite down -0.04%, Hang Seng down -0.54% ASX down -0.18%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,073.86 (0.17%), Silver at $50.758 (0.53%), Brent Oil at $64.69 (-0.31%), WTI Oil at $60.49 (-0.30%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.121, UK 10-year yield at 4.5590, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7095

News & Data:

• (CAD) Housing Starts  233K  to 265K expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher on Wednesday, despite the weak cues from Wall Street, as investors look for bargain opportunities following a three-day sell-off. Caution persists ahead of delayed U.S. economic data, including the September jobs report, which may influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. Earlier private employment indicators had supported hopes of a rate cut, but recent comments from Fed officials have reduced such expectations. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now reflects a 48.9 percent probability of a 25-basis-point cut.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 is slightly higher, supported by gains in gold miners though financial stocks remain weak. Major miners are mixed, while technology shares show varied performance. Gold miners such as Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources are posting notable gains. Corporate developments include sharp movements in DroneShield, Webjet, and Nufarm shares. Wage data for the third quarter showed steady quarterly and annual growth, aligning with expectations. The Australian dollar is trading near $0.650.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is advancing, supported by strength in automakers and key index heavyweights, despite continued weakness in technology stocks. Machinery orders for September exceeded forecasts, reinforcing optimism for future quarters. The yen is trading in the lower 155-per-dollar range.

Elsewhere in Asia, major markets are modestly higher, while Hong Kong is flat. Wall Street closed sharply lower on Tuesday, and European markets also saw significant declines. Crude oil prices strengthened on expectations of increasing demand following the end of the U.S. government shutdown.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Trade Balance
• 03:00 PM GMT – USD Crude Oil Inventories
• 07:00 PM GMT – USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

The post Wednesday 19th November 2025: Asian Stocks Rebound Cautiously Ahead of Delayed U.S. Economic Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 19/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Fall Ahead of Data and Nvidia – Dow Down 1.2%

US equities pulled back further in trading yesterday as investors focused on upcoming economic releases and the much-anticipated Nvidia earnings report. The Dow fell 1.18% to 46,590, the S&P 500 declined 0.92% to 6,672, and the Nasdaq lost 0.84% to 22,708. Treasury yields were mostly steady, with the 2-year note rising 0.4 bps to 3.610% and the 10-year falling 1.0 bps to 4.139%. The US dollar strengthened, gaining 0.24% to 99.54. Oil prices eased lower after a key Russian port reopened following Ukrainian strikes. Brent dropped 0.61% to $64.01, and WTI fell 0.58% to $59.74. Gold also retreated, down 0.95% to $4,044.96 amid a firmer dollar and softer expectations for Fed rate cuts.

Yen in Focus for FX Markets

The Yen has declined considerably against both the dollar and on the crosses in recent weeks, and market ‘chatter’ is building up strongly that we could see some intervention from authorities in Tokyo if the move continues. Most experienced traders feel that the move would have to accelerate for the Bank of Japan to come in and hit the market hard, but if this does happen, they would normally expect to see the initial impact knock the major pair for at least 200 pips. Generally, the impact lessens over time as the market becomes adjusted to these sharp revaluations, but that initial move could see thousands of carry trades knocked out in one go. USDJPY has broken through the key 155 level but has not pushed through in spectacular fashion yet, and the next resistance level will be up at the January high just below 159 from a technical perspective. At the moment, traders are happy to remain long and will continue to pick up the carry, but most experienced traders will be ready to hit the sell button on any sharp moves down.

Quiet Calendar Day Ahead – But More Moves Expected

It is a quiet day ahead for traders in terms of scheduled risk events on the macroeconomic calendar; however, the market is still expecting plenty of volatility across the sessions, with geopolitical updates and pending data likely to factor. The Asian session will see a focus on Australian markets, with the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due out. Given the recent spate of higher-than-expected data, traders will be focusing on the bank’s position, with most leaning towards a more hawkish outlook. There is little on the calendar in both the European and US sessions today; however, several products are sitting near sensitive levels, which could lead to exacerbated moves if they break. In addition to a pending US data flood, which has lifted investor concerns, President Trump has been speaking – last night advising that he would allow US military action in Mexico to combat drugs – and traders are expecting that we will hear more from him in the coming days, which can only add to volatility.

The post General Market Analysis – 18/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 18 November 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Today’s Asia session saw equity markets weaken across the region, led by tech stocks and reflecting Wall Street’s downside momentum. Japanese GDP data confirmed an economic contraction, deepening worries about sustained recovery. Chinese macroeconomic risks remained entrenched, impacting commodities and China-exposed financial instruments. Currencies moved in line with risk sentiment and intervention caution, and geopolitical frictions between China and Japan added to the unease.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Today, traders should watch for PMI trends and U.S. factory data, while monitoring volatility around ongoing news on the government shutdown resolution, corporate earnings (notably Nvidia), and sector-specific moves in European equities such as SSE and BAE Systems. FX markets are being shaped by relative central bank policy trajectories and yield expectations.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar is showing broad-based stability today and modest strength versus key global currencies, with traders highly attuned to upcoming US data for policy direction.​ Rate cut expectations for December have fallen to about a coin flip, following hawkish signals from Fed officials and sturdy recent economic data.​ Any pronounced moves in the dollar this week will likely be data-dependent, especially with the backlog of economic reports set to be released starting Thursday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices have seen a notable decline, continuing a multi-day drop as global investors react to a stronger US dollar and fading expectations for immediate US interest rate cuts. Current spot prices for gold (XAU/USD) are trading around $4,045 per ounce, down sharply from recent highs and dangerously close to the psychologically important $4,000 level.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro faced renewed pressure, with EUR/USD trading lower amid cautious sentiment surrounding key economic data and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The latest developments point to a steady policy stance from the European Central Bank and persistent macroeconomic and external headwinds for the euro. The euro-dollar (EUR/USD) pair dropped to around 1.1593, indicating broad weakness against the US dollar as traders awaited speeches from the European Central Bank (ECB) and major US economic releases.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, aided by stable banking sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc (CHF) saw notable developments influenced mainly by recent trade deals, economic data, and ongoing central bank policy expectations. The currency’s performance has reflected a combination of Switzerland’s trade situation with the United States, evolving inflation expectations, and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound enters the second half of November 2025 under considerable pressure from multiple directions. Disappointing GDP growth of just 0.1% in Q3, rising unemployment to 5%, and persistent above-target inflation at 3.8% have complicated the economic picture. The Bank of England’s narrow 5-4 vote to hold rates at 4% has fueled expectations of a December cut, with markets pricing in a 75% probability.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted by a majority of 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar faces a challenging environment, trading near the 1.40 level against the US dollar. While October’s inflation data showed headline CPI cooling to 2.2%, core measures remain elevated above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, supporting the central bank’s pause in rate cuts. Traders await the October housing starts data due this afternoon, which could provide insights into the resilience of Canada’s domestic economy.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to cap overall resale volumes, leading to only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
WeaK Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

The oil market faces a deeply bearish fundamental backdrop characterized by rising global inventories, accelerating production from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers, and modest demand growth constrained by electric vehicle adoption and economic headwinds. WTI and Brent crude are trading near $60 and $64 per barrel, respectively, with most analysts expecting further downside pressure through 2026 as the unprecedented supply glut materializes.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 18 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 18 November 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Overnight, U.S. session headlines produced outsized volatility in technology and rate-sensitive stocks, as increased tariff threats, skepticism about AI valuations, and shifting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut drove sector rotations and defensive flows. The end of the government shutdown means traders now await a flurry of backlogged macroeconomic reports, likely to set the stage for continued market dynamism and event-driven positioning in the sessions ahead.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Focus on Australia’s central bank minutes for guidance on AUD trajectory.​​ Monitor developments from the SCO summit impacting multi-national trade and regional connectivity.​ Watch for volatility in Asia FX, particularly JPY and AUD, as central bank policy and geopolitics intersect. ​​Keep an eye on Asian tech and ESG-themed news, as sector leadership may shift around headline events.​

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar remains supported by diminishing Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, with December odds now at 46%. Fed officials Barr, Barkin, and Logan speak today, providing potential policy guidance. Critical economic data delayed by the 43-day government shutdown is beginning to flow, with the September jobs report due Thursday and trade price indices releasing today. The dollar index trades around 99.40, up 0.79% over the past month but down 6.46% year-over-year. USD strength is most pronounced against JPY (near 155) and commodity currencies like AUD (toward 0.65).

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressure but still warranting vigilance amid tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold finds itself at a critical juncture, caught between near-term technical weakness and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations on one side, and extraordinary structural demand from central banks and institutional investors on the other. The metal is consolidating around $4,070-$4,080 after an 11% correction from October’s record highs, with technical indicators suggesting potential further weakness toward $3,950-$4,000 before the next leg higher begins.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Tuesday marks a pivotal day for the Australian Dollar as traders await the RBA’s November meeting minutes for clues on future policy direction. The AUD is caught between competing forces: strong domestic labor market data and the RBA’s hawkish hold stance supporting the currency, while US Dollar strength amid diminished Fed rate-cut expectations and mixed Chinese economic signals are applying downward pressure. With the RBA pricing only a 6% chance of a December rate cut and the Fed’s December move now a coin toss at 46% probability, interest rate differentials are becoming increasingly important for AUD/USD direction.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar faces a challenging environment as it navigates weak domestic economic conditions, a dovish RBNZ monetary policy stance, and concerns about China’s economic slowdown. While inflation expectations remain well-anchored and some positive developments have emerged (U.S. tariff removal, strong export data), the currency remains vulnerable to further downside. The upcoming RBNZ meeting on November 26 and ongoing China economic data will be critical determinants of the NZD’s near-term trajectory.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025, exceeding market expectations for a smaller 25-basis-point reduction and signaling a stronger commitment to reviving growth.
• The decision was reached by consensus, marking a shift from previous split votes, and reflected policymakers’ shared view that sustained economic weakness and persistent disinflationary pressures required a more front-loaded policy response.
• Annual consumer price inflation stood at 2.7% in the June quarter and is seen nearing 3% for the September quarter—above the 2% midpoint but within the 1–3% target range. Despite high near-term readings, the MPC projects inflation will return toward 2% by the first half of 2026 as spare capacity and moderating tradables curb price momentum.
• Policymakers acknowledged that domestic demand remains weak, with household spending, business investment, and construction activity under pressure. While still elevated, services inflation is expected to ease gradually as wage growth slows and unemployment edges higher.
• Financial conditions have eased with expectations as wholesale and retail borrowing rates adjust to lower policy settings. Bank lending data indicate a modest uptick in mortgage approvals, though broader credit demand remains subdued.
• GDP growth stalled in the middle of 2025, with high-frequency indicators showing continued weakness into the third quarter. A combination of elevated costs for essentials and falling savings continues to restrain household consumption, while global trade frictions weigh on business sentiment.
• The MPC noted that global uncertainty—particularly from US trade regulation changes and soft Chinese demand—continues to pose downside risks to export sectors, though these are partly offset by a weaker New Zealand dollar improving competitiveness.
• Subject to data confirming a sustained soft patch in activity and moderating inflation pressures, the MPC signaled further scope to reduce the OCR toward 2.25% at its next meeting on 26 November 2025, consistent with current market and Westpac forecasts.
• The next meeting is on 26 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen faces mounting headwinds as Prime Minister Takaichi’s political pressure on the BOJ coincides with disappointing economic data. The third-quarter GDP contraction has significantly reduced December rate hike expectations, with markets now pricing in only a 50% probability of action this year. Today’s Takaichi-Ueda meeting will be closely watched for signals on the government’s tolerance for BOJ policy independence.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

The oil market is characterized by a fundamental imbalance between rapidly growing supply and sluggish demand growth. While geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies and Ukrainian infrastructure attacks, have provided periodic price support, the underlying bearish trend driven by supply surplus concerns remains dominant.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 18 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down -2.70%, Shanghai Composite down -0.56%, Hang Seng down -1.68% ASX down -1.98%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,016.31 (-1.45%), Silver at $49.580 (-2.26%), Brent Oil at $63.83 (-0.58%), WTI Oil at $59.52 (-0.58%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.122, UK 10-year yield at 4.5350, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7130

News & Data:

• (CAD) CPI m/m  0.2%  to 0.2% expected
• (CAD) Median CPI y/y  2.9%  to 3.1% expected
• (CAD) Trimmed CPI y/y  3.0%  to 3.0% expected

Markets Update:

Asian markets fell sharply on Tuesday, mirroring the weak cues from Wall Street as concerns over stretched valuations—particularly in technology stocks—and fading expectations of a Fed rate cut next month weighed on sentiment. The US dollar also strengthened across the region. Markets are now looking ahead to a series of delayed US economic releases for clearer signals on the Fed’s policy direction.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 55.1 percent chance the Fed will hold rates steady next month and a 44.9 percent likelihood of another quarter-point cut.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 dropped sharply toward the 8,500 level, with broad losses led by mining, energy and tech stocks. Major miners like BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue fell notably, while tech names including Block, Zip and WiseTech registered steep declines. Financials also weakened, with the major banks sliding up to 2 percent.

Japanese stocks also extended losses, with the Nikkei 225 tumbling nearly 2 percent amid broad declines in exporters, tech and financials. Market heavyweights like SoftBank and Toyota were among the major drags.

Other Asian markets, including South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and China, were also lower.

On Wall Street, US stocks ended Monday sharply down, with all major averages closing at their lowest levels in a month. European markets also finished broadly weaker. Crude oil prices edged slightly lower amid persistent concerns over long-term supply-demand imbalances.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:15 PM GMT – CAD Housing Starts

The post Tuesday 18th November 2025: Asian Markets Slide Sharply Amid Tech Selloff and Weak Global Cues first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.