Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the UK Early May Bank Holiday  on Monday, 04 May, 2026.

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +3).

Kind Regards,

IC.

The post UK Early May Bank Holiday Trading Schedule 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the Labour Day Holiday  on Friday, 01 May, 2026.

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +3).

Indices:

Bonds Futures:

Equities:

Kind regards,

IC.

The post Labour Day Holiday Trading Schedule 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the Ascension Day on Thursday, 14 May, 2026.

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +3).

Kind regards,

IC.

The post Ascension Day Holiday Trading Schedule – 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the Japan Golden Week Holiday starting from Monday, 4 May, 2026.

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +3).

Kind regards,

IC.

The post Japan Golden Week Holiday Trading Schedule 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading Schedule and general information related to Buddha’s Birthday, UK Spring Bank Holiday and US Memorial Day on Monday, 25 May 2026.

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin, so please take the necessary precautions to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +3).

Forex & Crypto Pairs:

Precious Metals:

Spot Energies:

Indices:

Metal Futures:

Energy Futures:

Soft Commodities:

Indices Futures:

Bonds Futures:

Equities:

Kind regards,

IC.

The post Buddha’s Birthday & UK Spring Bank Holiday & US Memorial Day Trading Schedule – 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the Victoria Day on  Monday, 18 May, 2026.

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +3).

Kind regards,

IC.

The post Victoria Day Holiday Trading Schedule 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

FX traders are seeing a focus move over from geopolitical updates to central banks this week with no fewer than five major banks making rate calls and without a doubt the Federal Reserve will take centre stage. Despite the fact that the market has fully priced in a ‘no change’ call, traders are expecting to see some substantial moves on the back of the update when the final Jerome Powell led FOMC delivers its statement and he presides over his last press conference. The market has changed significantly since the conflict in the Middle East began and expectations of rate cuts have pulled back hard, odds of a 25-basis point cut by December now sitting at just 22% when previously the market was looking for cuts by mid-year. All eyes will be on exactly how far rate cut expectations have fallen in the Fed’s eyes’ relative to market pricing and that should see some big moves in the market with anything more hawkish likely to see yields and the dollar take off higher, whilst indications of cuts earlier in the year likely to lead to a sharp fall in the greenback.

USDJPY is trading again near annual highs on the Daily Chart despite a hawkish leaning from the Bank of Japan this week and anything more hawkish from the FOMC at the conclusion of their latest meeting could see the annual high at 160.46 come under threat. Shorter-term resistance at recent highs and the trendline around the 159.86 level will probably give bulls good stop loss entry levels for a move higher, whilst bears would look to leverage them if we do have a more dovish outlook from the committee. Support on the short-term trendline now comes in around the 158.50 level with stronger levels now sitting down just under 156.00.

Resistance 2: 160.46 – 2026 High and Trendline Resistance

Resistance 1: 159.86 – Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 158.49 – Trendline Support

Support 2: 157.57 – April Low

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets Global does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets Global assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets Global is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property. 

The post Trade USDJPY on the FOMC Meeting first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 29 April 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Today’s Asia session saw mixed equities and softer oil prices, anchored by the UAE’s announcement to exit OPEC, which undermined OPEC’s perceived cohesion and triggered risk‑hedging in energy and related EM assets. At the same time, investors remained cautious over US–Iran‑linked geopolitics and AI‑sector concerns ahead of the Fed decision, tilting flows toward more defensive positioning and compressing risk‑on sentiment in tech‑heavy indices and commodity‑linked FX.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, which is widely expected to maintain interest rates at their current level of 3.50%–3.75%. This meeting carries additional significance as it is anticipated to be the final one chaired by Jerome Powell before his term concludes in May. Simultaneously, the equity markets are focused on a heavy slate of “Mag 7” earnings, with reports due today from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Federal Funds Rate (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was trading at approximately 98.58, reflecting a slight decline of 0.04% for the session. The dominant market focus for the day has been the conclusion of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with markets largely pricing in a 94% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate at the 3.50%–3.75% range.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its March 17–18, 2026, meeting, amid rising oil prices from the US-Israel war against Iran and persistent inflation pressures, delaying any 2026 cuts potentially to September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market weakening further as nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February 2026 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in January.
• Officials face tilted risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices, and sticky inflation, with CPI steady at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026, headline PCE at 2.8% in January, and core PCE rising to 3.1%.
• Economic activity has cooled after robust Q4 2025 growth of nearly 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow now estimating Q1 2026 growth at around 2.1%–2.7% amid softer consumer spending and labour data.
• December 2025’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, 2026 GDP growth at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.5%, with the dot plot signalling one more cut in 2026 to a median 3.4% funds rate; March updates may reflect softer labor and inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a softening labor market, inflation above target, and new oil shocks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with ongoing divisions and possible hawkish dissents on rate cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29  April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Federal Funds Rate (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is hovering just below $4,600 per ounce after a small dip from the previous session, with prices down about 0.26% to 4,584 USD/oz while remaining strongly higher versus a year ago. Escalating Middle East tensions and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven oil‑linked inflation worries and raised expectations that major central banks may keep rates higher for longer, weighing on non‑yielding bullion even as it still attracts some safe‑haven flows.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

German Prelim CPI m/m (All Day)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro is trading in a narrow band just below 1.18 versus the U.S. dollar, held back by a resilient greenback and safe‑haven demand, while the ECB sticks with a cautious, data‑dependent stance amid elevated energy prices and lukewarm Eurozone growth. Inflation data for March surprised slightly to the upside, reinforcing the ECB’s measured approach.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 29–30 April 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and deposit facility at 2.00%. This reflects an ongoing commitment to 2% inflation stability amid heightened uncertainties from Middle East tensions and US trade policies under President Trump. Market probabilities indicate around 58% odds of no change, though some banks now price in potential hikes due to rising inflation risks.
• Price dynamics show increasing upside pressures, with headline HICP inflation likely around 2.0-2.2% in early 2026, driven by energy costs from Middle East conflicts offsetting euro strength. Core inflation remains sticky but moderating slowly, with projections revised upward to 2.6% for 2026 overall amid hawkish signals from ECB leadership.
• Updated Eurosystem staff projections for April 2026 may forecast headline inflation at 2.1-2.2% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028, with upside risks from energy and trade dominating balanced prior views. A stronger euro provides some counterbalance, but recent data revisions highlight persistent pressures.
• Euro area GDP growth holds steady, with Q2 2026 surveys suggesting 0.2-0.3% qoq growth, in line with 1.1-1.3% annual forecasts through 2027. Defence spending, infrastructure, and low unemployment support resilience against trade headwinds and softer external demand.
• The labour market remains tight, with unemployment steady near 6.4%, bolstered by wage growth and participation gains. Supportive credit conditions continue aiding investment and consumption despite global risks.
• Business sentiment is cautious amid US tariffs, geopolitical flare-ups, and supply chain easing; a somewhat weaker euro boosts exports, while fiscal measures aid domestic activity.
• The Governing Council maintains its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance, scrutinizing inflation, transmission, and external shocks without pre-committing to rate paths.
• Balance sheet normalization advances smoothly, with APP/PEPP wind-downs complete and no liquidity issues; banks show ample reserves and stable funding access.

​The next meeting is on 29 April 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc is trading in a tight range, with USD/CHF hovering near 0.79 after a slight pullback from multi‑year lows last week, while the euro remains near record lows versus CHF above 0.92. The franc continues to draw underlying support from its safe‑haven appeal, subdued inflation, and the SNB’s readiness to intervene if appreciation becomes too disruptive, with analysts expecting the pair to gradually ease toward around 0.78 in the near term and 0.76 over the next year.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound remains range-bound against the US dollar near 1.35, with traders adopting a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision expected to hold steady at 3.50-3.75% later today, followed by the BoE’s announcement tomorrow at 3.75%—a pivotal “triple central bank week” also involving the ECB that could trigger 1-2 cent swings in GBP/USD.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 19 March 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent in a unanimous decision, following the prior narrow 5–4 vote to hold at the 5 February 2026 meeting. This pause reflects a sharp reversal from earlier market expectations of a 25-basis-point cut, driven by a Middle East conflict sparking global energy and commodity price surges. The March meeting did not include a Monetary Policy Report, with the next one due in April.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) proceeds unchanged at the 2025 pace of gilt holdings reductions, maintaining gradual balance-sheet normalization attuned to liquidity conditions and supportive of a restrictive stance amid new shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation faces near-term upside from the energy shock, reversing prior disinflation trends in domestic prices and wages; pre-shock services inflation had eased but now contends with higher utility and input costs, keeping pressures above the 2 per cent target. MPC projections will update in April, but analysts see inflation at 3-4 per cent by the end of 2026.
• UK growth softens further into Q2 2026, with unemployment risks rising amid potential confidence drops, higher precautionary saving, and widening output gaps; regular pay growth had cooled pre-shock but now faces business cost pass-through.
• Global headwinds intensify via Middle East conflict, driving volatile energy/commodity prices and sterling/gilt swings; MPC deems direct shocks manageable if demand weakens sufficiently to limit second-round effects.
• Inflation risks now tilt upwards from energy persistence and potential wage/cost embedding, offset by downside from demand slack and job losses; prior balance has shifted amid uncertainty on shock duration.
• The MPC adopts a wait-and-see posture post-shock, with policy deemed somewhat restrictive pre-event; all members are ready to act data-dependently for 2 per cent sustainability, eyeing April for fuller impact analysis and possible easing if disinflation resumes. Governor Bailey’s guidance stresses close monitoring without firm-cut commitments.
• The next meeting is on 30 April 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

BOC Monetary Policy Report (1:45 pm GMT)

BOC Rate Statement (1:45 pm GMT)

Overnight Rate (1:45 pm GMT)

BOC Press Conference (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar holds near recent highs around 1.37 USD amid high oil prices from Middle East tensions and a hawkish BoC outlook, though it dipped slightly on April 28 to USD/CAD 1.3684 (+0.42%) as inflation hit 2.4% without prompting rate hike expectations the BoC is set to maintain 2.25% today, balancing energy shocks with softening core inflation and global USD strength, per forecasts eyeing further loonie gains to 1.35 USD in a year.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 25 March 2026 meeting, aligning with consensus forecasts and extending the pause in policy adjustments amid balanced risks. The Bank emphasized persistent global uncertainties from Middle East conflicts and U.S. trade policies under President Trump, but affirmed the current stance supports ongoing disinflation without immediate shifts despite elevated energy price volatility.
• U.S. tariff threats and regional geopolitical tensions continue weighing on business sentiment, though Canadian manufacturing PMI has edged higher into expansion territory, with export orders firming on energy demand. Goods exports, led by crude oil, sustained momentum into February, offsetting cautious capex as firms prioritize resilience over aggressive growth.
• Economic growth carried into Q1 2026 at an annualized pace of around 2.2%, building on Q4 2025’s solid performance, fueled by resource exports, government outlays, and manufacturing rebound. February preliminary data points to steady expansion, though winter weather and supply chain frictions modestly curbed potential upside.
• Services sector PMI climbed further above 50, with broad gains in tech, hospitality, and business services; consumer-facing areas showed tentative improvement as real wages rose, though high service costs still restrained discretionary outlays. The Bank sees this diffusion as evidence of rebalancing toward sustainable activity.
• ​National housing resales ticked up in January-February alongside modest price gains, buoyed by stable rates and improved affordability in select regions, while inventory buildup in urban centers prevents excessive tightening. Officials anticipate continued moderation, aided by prudent mortgage rules amid steady household formation.
• Headline CPI eased to about 2.1% year-over-year in February 2026 estimates, staying within the control band, as core gauges like CPI-trim and median dipped to near 2.7% on softer food and durable goods pressures—despite sticky shelter costs. This reinforces the Bank’s view of inflation sustainably approaching the target.
• Policymakers reiterated that 2.25% remains well-calibrated to anchor 2% inflation and foster adjustment, with no cuts signaled barring downside surprises in growth or prices. Attention now turns to Q2 durability, core inflation persistence, and evolving trade/geopolitical clarity.
• The next meeting is on 29 April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

WTI crude closed at $99.85 on April 28, up 3.61% for the seventh straight session, hitting highs not seen since early April despite the UAE move. Brent rose to $111.78 (June futures), up 0.47%, with analysts citing Hormuz constraints outweighing any potential output hikes. US inventories fell for a second week, with crude down 1.79 million barrels.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 29 April 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 98.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 97.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap  resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1720

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1639

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1851

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 187.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 186.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support  that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 187.88
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8677

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance  that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8645
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8721
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot:1.3554

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3460
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3598
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 215.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 213.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 217.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7917

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7839
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7013
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 159.11

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 157.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 160.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3602

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3544

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3702

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7089

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6999

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement,, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7210

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5919

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5775

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5957

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 48,869.55

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 48.222.47

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 49,777.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 23,968.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,407.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,717.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 7,131.75

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 7,039.33

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,241.47

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 77,325.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 74,748.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 79,412.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 2,2257.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 2,169.68

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,423.81
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 94.78

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 84.86
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 105.53
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,622.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,473.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,696.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 29th April 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.02%, Shanghai Composite up 0.40% Hang Seng up 1.35% ASX down 0.23%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,610.79 (0.05%) Silver at $73.700 (0.66%), Brent Oil at $103.98 (-0.36%), WTI Oil at $99.33 (0.59%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.344, UK 10-year yield at 5.0070, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0613

News & Data:

• (USD) ADP Weekly Employment Change 39.3K  to 40.3K  expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed on Wednesday as investors reacted to overnight losses on Wall Street and assessed fresh developments involving OPEC and concerns about OpenAI’s financial outlook. 

In a significant move for global energy markets, the United Arab Emirates announced it will exit OPEC on May 1, dealing a notable setback to the oil-producing alliance that coordinates output among several of the world’s largest exporters, especially in the Middle East. The decision added uncertainty to oil supply expectations and contributed to cautious market sentiment.

Technology stocks also faced pressure after a Wall Street Journal report indicated that OpenAI’s revenue and user growth were below internal targets. According to the report, Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar warned company leadership that OpenAI could face challenges meeting its computing contract obligations if revenue growth does not accelerate. 

Regionally, South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.39%, while the Kosdaq traded flat. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.28%. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 1.2%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 edged down 0.26%. Japanese markets remained closed for a public holiday.

U.S. futures showed modest gains, but overnight trading saw the S&P 500 fall 0.49%, the Nasdaq Composite drop 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slip slightly as investors awaited major tech earnings and signals from the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:45 PM GMT – CAD Overnight Rate
• 06:00 PM GMT – USD Federal Funds Rate

The post Wednesday 29th April 2026: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed as OPEC Exit Shock and OpenAI Growth Concerns Weigh on Sentiment first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

US Stocks Fall Ahead of FOMC – Nasdaq down 0.9%
US equity markets moved lower in the latest session, led by weakness in the tech sector as renewed concerns around AI-driven growth weighed on sentiment and traders looked ahead to today’s FOMC rate decision. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.90% to close at 24,663, underperforming its peers and pulling back from recent record highs. The S&P 500 also declined, dropping 0.49% to 7,138, while the Dow Jones proved relatively resilient, edging just 0.05% lower to finish at 49,141. US Treasury yields gained ground again, the 2-year up 3.7 basis points to 3.836%, while the 10-year yield added 0.6 basis points to 4.346%. Currency markets saw the US Dollar Index strengthen modestly, with the DXY gaining 0.13% to 98.63 as it continued to trade within recent ranges ahead of key macroeconomic catalysts. In commodities, oil prices extended their rally amid ongoing geopolitical tensions centred around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent Crude rose 2.68% to $111.13 per barrel, while WTI gained 3.39% to $99.63, as supply concerns outweighed reports that the UAE is set to exit OPEC. Gold prices, however, came under heavy pressure, with gold falling 1.82% to $4,596.75 after breaking through key technical support levels, as higher yields and a firmer dollar weighed on the precious metal.

FOMC In Focus for Traders Today
Traders are again preparing for central bank updates to take precedence over geopolitics, however briefly, in the sessions ahead today, with the FOMC set to take centre stage as it makes its last rate call under the guidance of Chairman Jerome Powell. The market is nearly 100% pricing in a ‘no change’ call from the Fed; however, forward guidance from the world’s biggest central bank should see plenty of volatility across financial products. A more hawkish leaning in the statement and at the press conference could see pricing for rate hikes wiped off the board for this year, which could prompt a sharp correction in stocks, as well as strong rallies in Treasury yields and the greenback. A dovish outlook would open the way for fresh records in the indices and some downside moves for yields and the dollar.

Big Calendar Day Ahead for Markets – Inflation and Central Banks in Focus
Looking ahead to today’s trading session, markets face a heavy macroeconomic calendar on top of the ever-present threat of geopolitical updates from the stalemate in the Middle East. In the Asian session, attention will be firmly on antipodean markets, with RBNZ Governor Anna Breman set to speak early in the day before key Australian CPI (exp +1.3% m/m, +4.8% y/y) is released. The London session will have euro traders focusing on German CPI data, released throughout the day on a state-by-state basis. However, the New York session is likely to see the most volatility, with both North American central banks—the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve Bank—set to update the market on interest rates. Both are strongly expected to keep rates on hold at 2.25% and 3.75%, respectively, but moves are expected around both events based on the forward guidance given, with reverberations from the FOMC likely to continue through the following day.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 29/04/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 29 April 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. financial landscape has been shaped by a focus on corporate earnings momentum, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and speculation surrounding upcoming Federal Reserve leadership changes. Markets have responded to these developments with cautious optimism, as evidenced by slight gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, though oil markets remain sensitive to the U.S.-Iran impasse. Concurrently, U.S. Treasury yields have drifted higher as investors process the extension of a ceasefire in that region.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should brace for oil‑driven volatility, with elevated crude and gold prices amplifying stress on net‑oil‑importing economies such as India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, while AI‑ and chip‑led strength continues to underpin North Asian indices. Key short‑term drivers include the Bank of Japan’s cautious stance, upcoming Australian CPI and Chinese PMI releases, and spillovers from US‑Iran geopolitical noise and Fed‑related dollar dynamics, all of which will influence FX, equities, and commodity flows during the Asian session.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Federal Funds Rate (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is holding in a defensive range around the high‑98s on the DXY, with the dominant focus on the FOMC decision and the messaging around future rate cuts rather than the policy rate itself; elevated US yields, sticky inflation, and renewed Middle‑East‑driven oil risk continue to underpin the greenback, while short‑term swings are being driven by risk sentiment and Fed‑speak around the timing and number of 2026 cuts.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its March 17–18, 2026, meeting, amid rising oil prices from the US-Israel war against Iran and persistent inflation pressures, delaying any 2026 cuts potentially to September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market weakening further as nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February 2026 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in January.
• Officials face tilted risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices, and sticky inflation, with CPI steady at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026, headline PCE at 2.8% in January, and core PCE rising to 3.1%.
• Economic activity has cooled after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow now estimating Q1 2026 growth at around 2.1%–2.7% amid softer consumer spending and labor data.
• December 2025’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, 2026 GDP growth at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.5%, with the dot plot signaling one more cut in 2026 to a median 3.4% funds rate; March updates may reflect softer labor and inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a softening labor market, inflation above target, and new oil shocks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with ongoing divisions and possible hawkish dissents on rate cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Federal Funds Rate (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

gold maintains resilience near $4,688 amid a mix of de-escalating Middle East tensions, a firm dollar, and safe-haven demand, with traders watching for US-Iran compliance and potential Fed policy shifts; expect modest upside if peace holds, but volatility persists below the $4,930 resistance.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

CPI m/m (1:30 am GMT)

CPI y/y (1:30 am GMT)

Trimmed Mean CPI m/m (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar continues its strong run, trading near recent four-year highs around 0.7188-0.72 USD amid optimism for RBA rate hikes, robust local labor data, and fading US-Iran tensions that curb USD strength and oil-driven inflation fears; year-to-date gains exceed 11%, positioning AUD as a G10 standout, though ASX softness and lingering geopolitics cap upside.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.85% at the March 16-17, 2026 policy meeting, following the widely anticipated 25 basis point hike to 3.85% in early February after persistent inflation pressures from late 2025. While some banks like CBA, NAB, and Westpac now forecast a further 25-basis-point rise to 4.10% as soon as May if inflation data remains sticky, consensus tilts toward a pause in March to assess incoming monthly CPI and labor market signals. The February hike reversed prior cuts, entering mildly restrictive territory amid capacity pressures, with the board emphasizing data dependence.
• Inflation remains elevated, with December 2025 CPI at 3.8% year-on-year and trimmed mean at 3.3%, above the 2–3% target midpoint. RBA’s February Statement revised forecasts higher, projecting trimmed-mean inflation to peak in mid-2026 above 3% and remain elevated through early 2027, driven by services, housing, and demand resilience despite some monthly cooling, such as January’s 0.2% MoM gauge. Monthly CPI data continues to highlight core stickiness beyond energy rebates, delaying the target return to late 2027 or beyond.
• January 2026 monthly indicators showed modest easing, but headline CPI risks upward surprises from housing (up recently) and services amid firm domestic demand. Trimmed mean pressures persist from wage growth and capacity constraints, with consumer expectations ticking to 5% YoY in February surveys. Enhanced monthly reporting sharpens vigilance on potential broad-based pick-up.
• The labor market shows softening, with unemployment around 4.1-4.4%, down slightly to 4.1% in December, but unit labor costs are elevated due to subdued productivity. Household spending faces higher borrowing costs post-hike, yet private demand recovery sustains capacity strains. Vulnerabilities persist amid resilient employment dynamics.
• Global growth modestly revised up but tempered by geopolitics and commodity volatility; policy now restrictive post-February, with the RBA balancing inflation against employment risks. Data from the monthly CPI and Q1 GDP will guide, amid household debt sensitivities.
• Sustained restrictive stance post-February anchors inflation return to target, upholding dual mandate with flexibility to new risks like further inflation upticks.
• Markets price a March hold at 3.85%, with big four banks split: CBA, NAB, Westpac eye May hike to 4.10% if persistence continues, while others see limited upside unless acceleration. Upcoming monthly CPI pivotal for Q2 trajectory.
• Policy vigilance counters inflation stickiness against household fragilities and global uncertainties, reaffirming adaptability under dual mandate.
• Base case favors March hold with risks tilted hawkish for further hikes if data is hot; monthly indicators key to 2026 path.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

RBNZ Gov Breman Speaks (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) showed limited movement following a slight depreciation the previous day. Recent reports indicate NZD/USD traded steadily around 0.5890 after slipping below that level on April 28, amid broader market caution influenced by US Dollar strength and ongoing global trade tensions.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen remained relatively stable against the USD at around 159.64, carrying forward momentum from the Bank of Japan’s April 28 policy hold at 0.75%—a decision with three hawkish dissents pushing for hikes amid elevated inflation risks from the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices, despite lowered growth outlooks; officials like Governor Ueda hinted at future tightening, and Finance Minister Katayama reiterated intervention readiness

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short‑term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27–28 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data‑dependent, gradual‑normalisation stance.
• The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage‑inflation persistence, yen stability, and real‑activity data rather than a pre‑announced timetable.
• JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to ¥200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly ¥2–3 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid‑2026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.
• Japan’s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle‑East‑related shocks weigh on the pace.
• Core CPI (ex‑fresh food) is running in the mid‑1% range y/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y/y in March 2026, while core‑core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services‑side and wage‑driven inflation.
• Input‑cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.
• Near‑term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran‑related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.
• Medium‑term, overseas recovery, labor‑shortage‑driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026–2027 if activity and wage‑inflation conditions remain aligned.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices remain elevated near three‑week highs, with Brent above 110 dollars per barrel and WTI near 100 dollars per barrel, driven by ongoing supply risks from the Strait of Hormuz closure and stalled US–Iran peace talks. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate the market narrative, even as OPEC releases its new Annual Statistical Bulletin, which may provide fresh data on global supply‑demand balances but is unlikely to immediately offset the current risk‑premium backdrop.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 29 April 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.