The post Ex-Dividend 01/06/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 2.60%, Shanghai Composite down 0.12% Hang Seng up 0.80% ASX up 1.48%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,540.09 (0.18%) Silver at $76.095 (0.24%), Brent Oil at $91.76(-1.01%), WTI Oil at $87.77 (-1.27%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.439, UK 10-year yield at 4.8210, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9510

News & Data:

• (USD) Core PCE Price Index m/m  0.2%  to 0.3%   expected
• (USD) Prelim GDP q/q  1.6%  to 2.0%   expected

Markets Update:

Here’s a rewritten version in approximately 220 words:

Asia-Pacific markets advanced on Friday as investors balanced renewed military tensions involving Iran with growing optimism that Washington and Tehran were nearing a temporary agreement to end their three-month conflict.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.88%, while the Topix rose 0.53%. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.68%, supported by a rally in technology stocks, while the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.25%. Samsung Electronics surged as much as 6.51% after announcing that it had begun shipping samples of its latest high-bandwidth memory chips to customers worldwide.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.72%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.68%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 also advanced 0.38%.

Market sentiment remained focused on developments in the Middle East. Iran’s armed forces reportedly launched missiles at unspecified targets late Thursday, according to state media. The reported strike followed Pentagon claims that Tehran had fired a ballistic missile toward Kuwait and deployed attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the heightened military activity, investors drew encouragement from reports that the U.S. and Iran had largely agreed on terms for a temporary ceasefire. A White House official confirmed an earlier Axios report indicating progress toward a deal.

U.S. stock futures were little changed after major Wall Street indexes closed at record highs on Thursday, driven by a technology rally. Strong guidance from Snowflake reignited enthusiasm for artificial intelligence-related stocks, helping lift broader market sentiment.

Upcoming Events:

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD GDP m/m

The post Friday 29th May 2026: Asia Markets Rise as Hopes for U.S.-Iran Deal Offset Fresh Military Tensions first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 29 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

President Trump’s sharp warning to Iran, which spiked geopolitical risk and drove oil prices above $110/barrel for Brent, while triggering risk-off sentiment across Asian equities, the Nikkei 225, ASX 200, and Hang Seng all fell nearly 1% or more. The instruments most impacted were crude oil futures (largest gainer), Japanese government bonds (yield surged amid inflation fears), Asian stock indices (broad declines except South Korea’s Kospi), and Bitcoin/tech stocks (both fell as investors rotated away from risk assets).

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Record-high global stocks (S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting fresh peaks led by Snowflake’s tech rally) amid a temporary U.S.-Iran deal that’s easing Middle East tensions but hasn’t yet been signed off on by President Trump. Oil futures are tracking the steepest weekly drop in nearly two months as markets await details on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and extending the ceasefire, while gold prices edged higher on inflation concerns and potential U.S. interest rate hikes.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is strengthening today, Friday, as markets price in higher Federal Reserve interest rates and favor American assets due to the US economy’s resilience compared to global peers. Rising Treasury yields, inflation concerns, and geopolitical instability, including elevated oil prices from the closed Strait of Hormuz, are driving investors toward the dollar as a safe haven.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17  June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading lower in a corrective phase after Wednesday’s 0.9% drop to $4,519/oz, with technical forecasts pointing to further downside toward ~$4,360 if the $4,500 level fails to hold. The pullback is driven by a firmer US dollar and rising yields, which reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion, even though the metal remains historically elevated thanks to central-bank purchases and geopolitical risk.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

German Prelim CPI m/m (All Day)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Eurozone inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 2.6% in May 2026, driven by a rise in core inflation to 2.9%, yet financial markets continue to bet heavily on an ECB interest rate reduction at next week’s June 6 meeting, suggesting policymakers will prioritize growth concerns over the temporary inflation uptick. The euro held relatively steady against major currencies as traders await further guidance from ECB officials and pending US economic data, with the European Commission having previously raised its 2025 eurozone growth forecast to 1.3% but projecting a slowdown to 1.2% in 2026.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28–29 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.
• Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0–2.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.
• The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9–2.1% earlier outlooks.
• Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2–0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.
• The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour‑force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.
• The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary‑policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade‑policy related).
• Balance‑sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind‑downs completed and the remaining stock of longer‑dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.

​The next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc remains one of the world’s strongest currencies in May 2026, trading near 0.78 per USD at its highest level since mid-May, driven by persistent safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and global trade uncertainty. While optimism over a potential US-Iran diplomatic deal temporarily weakened the franc slightly, it continues to appreciate as investors seek reliable haven assets, posing ongoing challenges for the Swiss National Bank, which maintains its willingness to intervene if necessary.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (8:20 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound is facing headwinds as the “peak pound” may be over, with multiple risks mounting for UK markets, including political instability around Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government, economic slowdown concerns, and persistent inflation above the Bank of England’s target until 2028. After strengthening approximately 2.1% in April 2026 (its best month since August 2025) amid the Iran conflict, Sterling is now losing steam as geopolitical tensions reach an impasse and UK government bond yields retreat.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April has been detailed yet, but consensus previews indicate a hold.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios in which inflation peaks above 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline, then eases below 2% in three years, or reaches 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.
• UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.
• Global risks from the Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy/commodity volatility and sterling/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.
• Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.
• The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.
• The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

GDP m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar today is reacting to the release of Canadian GDP data, following Thursday’s notable rebound, the loonie’s biggest gain in May, driven by ceasefire hopes between the US and Iran that boosted risk appetite and pushed the currency to 1.3779 per USD. Despite this recent gain, the CAD has weakened overall in May to around 1.38 per USD because softer core inflation (at five-year lows) supports the Bank of Canada’s dovish stance and diminishes rate hike expectations.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.
• U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.
• Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1’s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.
• Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.
• ​National housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.
• Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation’s durable path to 2%.
• Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade/geopolitical developments ahead of June.
• The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices edged lower as hopes for a U.S.–Iran ceasefire extension offset lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude futures for July slipped 35 cents (0.37%) to $93.36/barrel, while U.S. crude futures declined 63 cents (0.71%) to $88.27/barrel. U.S. Vice President JD Vance indicated progress in negotiations but noted unresolved issues regarding Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, keeping markets cautious.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 29 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 98.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.51
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1660

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1590

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1700

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 185.14

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 184.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 186.25
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8673

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8644
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8697
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3461

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3372
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3511
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 213.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 212.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 215.12
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.7826

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7805
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7861
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 159.16

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 158.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 159.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                           

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3735

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3735

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3821

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7141

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7101

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support; this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7200

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 60% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5919

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5879

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support; this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5947

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 50,119.72

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 49,703.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 51,050.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 24,889.51

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 24,613

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,387.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 7,545.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 7,449.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,569.51

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 73,253.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 71,733.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 74,622.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,083.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.969.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,146.67
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 92.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 84.66
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 98.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,464.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,375.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,549.45
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Friday 29th May 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Markets Volatile on Potential Ceasefire Extension – Nasdaq up 0.9%

US equity markets moved higher overnight, with technology stocks leading the gains after reports emerged that the United States and Iran had agreed to extend the current ceasefire arrangement, helping improve overall investor sentiment despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the region. The Nasdaq outperformed, climbing 0.91% to close at 26,917, while the S&P 500 rose 0.58% to finish at 7,563. The Dow Jones was comparatively subdued, edging just 0.05% higher to close at 50,668.

Oil markets experienced another volatile session as traders continued to react to developments in the Middle East. Brent crude eased back 1.13% to settle at USD $93.22 per barrel after earlier gains, while WTI managed to finish marginally positive, rising 0.25% to USD $88.90.

Currency and bond markets both softened following the release of US Core PCE inflation data, which came in slightly below market expectations and reinforced hopes that inflation pressures may continue to moderate. The US Dollar Index fell 0.22% to 98.99, while US Treasury yields moved lower across the curve. The 2-year Treasury yield declined 1.2 basis points to 4.020%, while the benchmark 10-year yield dropped 3.5 basis points to 4.447%.

Gold prices recovered strongly into the close after falling sharply earlier in the trading session, still trading largely in line with dollar moves rather than geopolitical uncertainty. Gold finished the day up 0.86% at USD $4,495.30 an ounce.

Strait of Hormuz is Key for Markets Now

Markets experienced more volatility yesterday as updates on the situation in the Middle East swung from more aggressive, with President Trump touting the possibility of bombing Oman, to a new ceasefire extension being agreed upon by the end of the day. President Trump is yet to formally agree to the ceasefire terms, with many market participants questioning the definition of a ceasefire for both sides, as there seems to have been a substantial amount of ‘fire’ going on in the region in the past week — and so traders are expecting a few more twists and turns on the newswires today. Many are now trying to look through the smoke (literally) and mirrors of recent updates to ascertain the way forward for markets, and key to everything is the resumption of oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. It does feel that now investors need some concrete evidence that the Strait will actually open fully for traffic in the coming months, or the market reaction could be more painful and sustained as we hit another new month with the Strait closed.

Volatile Day to Close Out the Trading Week

Attention now turns to another potentially volatile day ahead as markets continue to monitor developments in the Middle East. There are, however, some key data updates due today, which could also provide some further trading opportunities as the day progresses. The initial focus in the Asian session will be on Japanese markets, with the key Tokyo Core CPI data (exp 1.5%) due out early in the day. German inflation data (exp +0.1% m/m) will come into focus in the London session, with the preliminary CPI numbers due out as usual on a state-by-state basis during the day. We are also set to hear from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey when he speaks at an event in Iceland. The New York session sees the release of the latest Canadian GDP (exp +0.1% m/m) data, and we hear from Fed members Bowman, Paulson, Daly, and Mann, but once again, news updates on the Gulf are likely to dominate sentiment into the weekend.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 29/05/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 29 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Overnight U.S. session pricing was driven first by geopolitics and then by a dense U.S. data calendar. The strike-related Middle East headlines lifted crude oil and weighed on risk assets, while GDP, PCE, and jobless claims were the main macro releases likely to steer the dollar, yields, and equity futures once U.S. trading got underway.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

German preliminary CPI and BoE Governor Bailey’s speech both can reshape European-driven FX flows and global risk sentiment, with Canada’s GDP adding a secondary CAD/risk influence. Markets will also digest any late US macro or Fed commentary from the prior session, plus commodity moves; surprises in inflation or central-bank tone could quickly affect EUR and GBP crosses, shift yield differentials, and spill into AUD/NZD and Asian equities.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar’s action today is being driven by global risk sentiment, U.S. Treasury yields, and external data, notably German preliminary CPI, a BOE speech from Governor Bailey, and Canadian GDP, which together are dictating cross-rate flows. If German CPI surprises to the upside or Bailey leans hawkish, EUR and GBP could strengthen, pressuring the dollar; conversely, risk-off or a rise in U.S. yields would lift the dollar. Expect lighter liquidity and end-of-week positioning to add volatility in major USD pairs.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold was chiefly reacting to a mix of European macro headlines and global yield moves: market attention centred on Germany’s preliminary CPI print and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s remarks, both capable of shifting real‑rate expectations that move bullion. If German CPI surprised higher and Bailey sounded hawkish, those signals likely pressured gold via firmer bond yields and a stronger euro/sterling dynamic; conversely, softer inflation or a dovish tone from Bailey would have supported bullion alongside any US‑dollar weakness or ETF inflows.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

Today, AUD trading is being shaped by risk sentiment, commodity moves (iron ore and oil), and expectations around central bank policy from the RBA’s recent rhetoric. Positive global risk appetite and rising commodity prices would support AUD, while a stronger US dollar, softer Chinese data, or weaker iron-ore prices would weigh.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at the 5 May 2026 meeting, moving into a more restrictive stance as inflation pressures re‑accelerated and the board judged the previous 4.10% level insufficient to re‑anchor the medium‑term outlook.
• The RBA lifted the cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35% at the 5 May meeting in an 8–1 vote, flagging that the stance is now “more restrictive” and that the Council sees a low but non‑trivial chance of further hikes if inflation risks crystallise.
• Headline CPI has jumped to 4.6% year‑on‑year for the 12 months to March 2026, up from around 3.7% in February, with trimmed‑mean inflation still above 3.0% (about 3.3–3.8% depending on the series), keeping inflation clearly outside the 2–3% target band.
• Recent monthly indicators remain sticky in services, housing‑related costs, and discretionary spending, with January and March data showing only modest easing and some upside surprises in housing‑price‑related components, underpinning the case for a stronger‑than‑expected May hike.
• Global growth has been modestly revised up but remains tempered by ongoing geopolitical tensions, commodity‑price volatility, and elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which directly feed into Australian import‑price and transport‑cost inflation.
• Markets now price the cash rate at 4.35% in June, with futures pathways suggesting a high‑probability hold at the June meeting and only a modest chance of another 25bp hike later in 2026, contingent on further upside in CPI or services‑price data.
• The RBA continues to emphasise its “data‑dependent” approach under the dual mandate, seeking to bring inflation back toward target without materially undershooting growth or employment, while acknowledging that the Middle East‑driven shock has shifted the path of inflation and policy.
• The May communication leaned hawkishly neutral to hawkish, with the decision to hike by 25bp and a run‑of‑material referencing rising inflation expectations and the risk of second‑round effects, while still leaving room for a pause in June if upcoming monthly CPI and labour‑force data show a moderating trend.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand dollar is trading under the influence of evolving RBNZ expectations and global risk sentiment. With no major NZ releases scheduled, market attention is focused on commentary from central bankers and overseas data that set the USD and risk tone; a firmer US dollar or risk‑off moves would sap NZD gains, while improving risk appetite and higher dairy/commodity cues would support it.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 27 May 2026 Monetary Policy Statement, but the decision was unprecedented—a 3-3 split requiring Governor Anna Breman’s casting vote. Three members (Hansen, Gourley, Gai) voted for an immediate 25bp hike to 2.50%, while three (Breman, Silk, Conway) voted to hold.
• While the OCR remained unchanged, the RBNZ issued its most hawkish guidance since the cutting cycle ended, stating the OCR will “likely need to rise sooner and by more than previously envisioned.” Market pricing now indicates a 72–73% probability of a rate hike at the next meeting on 8 July 2026, with swaps pricing in roughly 16bps of tightening.
• Annual CPI inflation remained at 3.1% in Q1 2026 (above the 1–3% target band) for two consecutive quarters. The RBNZ now forecasts inflation to peak at 4.3% in the September 2026 quarter—driven by Middle East oil shocks—before returning to the 2% target midpoint by mid-2027.
• The RBNZ revised its terminal OCR forecast upward to 3.28% over the next three years (from 3.0%), implying approximately 100 basis points of total tightening ahead. The updated path suggests at least two additional hikes by year-end 2026, with the OCR potentially rising to 2.50% by September 2026 and higher thereafter.
• GDP growth is projected at 0% in Q2 2026 and only 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, reflecting an early but unconvincing recovery. Unemployment, currently at 5.3% (near a decade-high), is expected to peak at 5.4% and remain there until June 2027.
• Retail sales volume rose 0.9% in Q1 2026, and electronic card data showed 2.7% annual growth in March, but high-frequency data reveals shrinking budget room as wholesale interest rates climb. Mortgage holders are increasingly shifting to two-year fixed rates for repayment certainty despite the OCR hold.
• Stronger dairy and meat export revenues (meat exports up 7% to $13.2B FY2026) and a softer NZD (TWI ~68%) support the external balance, while Middle East oil volatility poses upside inflation risks. The NZD jumped 0.7% against the USD immediately after the announcement, and two-year swap rates rose 3bps.
• Markets now expect the first hike in this tightening cycle, with the MPC’s internal division suggesting any future decision may again be contentious. Policy remains below the ~3% neutral rate, but the shift from “wait-and-see” to “preemptive tightening” is now clear.
• The next meeting is on 8 July 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

Today, JPY moves will be driven primarily by global yields, risk sentiment, and any fresh BoJ or US Fed commentary. With several European and North American macro prints scheduled (German CPI, BOE speech, Canadian GDP), the yen may react indirectly through shifts in global rates and risk appetite. Risk-off flows would strengthen the yen, while higher global yields and stronger risk appetite would weaken it.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short‑term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27–28 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data‑dependent, gradual‑normalisation stance.
• The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage‑inflation persistence, yen stability, and real‑activity data rather than a pre‑announced timetable.
• JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to ¥200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly ¥2–3 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid‑2026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.
• Japan’s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle‑East‑related shocks weigh on the pace.
• Core CPI (ex‑fresh food) is running in the mid‑1% range y/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y/y in March 2026, while core‑core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services‑side and wage‑driven inflation.
• Input‑cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.
• Near‑term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran‑related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.
• Medium‑term, overseas recovery, labor‑shortage‑driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026–2027 if activity and wage‑inflation conditions remain aligned.
• The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets opened Friday with muted trade as traders weigh ongoing voluntary OPEC+ supply restraint against mixed demand signals from China and seasonal demand in the Northern Hemisphere. With no OPEC+ meeting scheduled, participants are focused on comments from Saudi and UAE officials and on macro data, including German CPI and a BOE speech, that could alter risk appetite and the dollar.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 29 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

CFDs on Commodities Expiry Information:

The post Futures/Bonds Expiry Information:Futures/Bonds first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 29/05/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 28 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian markets turned hesitant during today’s session as fresh U.S. strikes in Iran and President Trump’s dismissal of an Iranian peace deal report undermined optimism for an imminent Middle East resolution, causing Brent crude to surge 2.3% to $96.50/barrel while MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index dipped 0.1-0.2% and snapped its five-day rally. The geopolitical tension kept the Strait of Hormuz largely shut, disrupting oil/gas flows and pushing inflation expectations higher.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Today’s trading sessions pivot on a concentrated U.S. data dump, including Core PCE inflation, durable goods, personal spending, and income that together paint a clear picture of consumer strength and price pressures, making the dollar the day’s central focus. With global growth expected to ease to 3.1% in 2026 and inflation ticking up due to geopolitical shocks, traders should brace for heightened volatility across currencies, equities, and commodities as these prints could significantly reprice Fed policy expectations.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core PCE Price Index m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Prelim GDP q/q (12:30 pm GMT)

Prelim GDP Price Index q/q (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar edged higher against major currencies, rebounding from recent volatility as U.S. Treasury yields rose and consumer confidence improved, though the currency remains down roughly 9% for 2025 and faces headwinds from growing U.S. fiscal deficits and expectations of rate cuts. Market participants are closely watching upcoming inflation data, while analysts from Standard Chartered warn that President Trump’s policies could trigger a “major” dollar drop in 2026 if they increase debt without boosting economic growth.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
• Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
• Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
• March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17  June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Core PCE Price Index m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Prelim GDP q/q (12:30 pm GMT)

Prelim GDP Price Index q/q (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices are currently consolidating in May 2026, with expectations for the XAU/USD pair to continue consolidating on May 28, 2026. The metal has had an extraordinary year, surging 41% from $3,335 to $4,732 per troy ounce between May 2025 and May 2026. In May 2026 specifically, gold has been trading in a range between $4,380 and $5,100 per ounce.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (6:10 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro is currently trading at 1.1620 against the dollar with a slight daily dip, but maintains recent strength fueled by geopolitical optimism around an Iran peace deal and rising European equity markets. While inflation in the euro area has ticked up to 2.6%, the currency benefits from increased euro-denominated debt issuance and capital outflows from the dollar, positioning it as a favorable alternative amid global trade tensions and fears of U.S. dollar weakness under President Trump’s policies.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28–29 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.
• Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0–2.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.
• The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9–2.1% earlier outlooks.
• Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2–0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.
• The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour‑force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.
• The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary‑policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade‑policy related).
• Balance‑sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind‑downs completed and the remaining stock of longer‑dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.

​The next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks (11:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc remains strong near multi-month highs, with USD/CHF trading around 0.7861–0.7878 and EUR/CHF at approximately 0.9136. The currency continues to benefit from safe-haven demand amid global geopolitical uncertainty, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to resume attacks on Iran, which has instead lifted the USD but kept the franc resilient.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound slipped slightly today to $1.3418, down 0.07% as investors balanced optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal against weakened UK economic data and diminished Bank of England rate hike expectations. The pound has declined 0.42% over the past month amid signs of economic weakness, including a contraction in private sector activity, cooling inflation at 2.80%, and rising unemployment to 5.0%.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April has been detailed yet, but consensus previews indicate a hold.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios in which inflation peaks above 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline, then eases below 2% in three years, or reaches 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.
• UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.
• Global risks from the Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy/commodity volatility and sterling/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.
• Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.
• The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.
• The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar hit a six-week low, trading at 1.3849 per U.S. dollar as growing concerns over USMCA trade agreement negotiations weighed on the loonie alongside soft domestic inflation data that reached five-year lows. The Bank of Canada’s dovish stance, with expectations firmly set for the benchmark rate to remain at 2.25% at the June 10 meeting, contrasts with the Federal Reserve’s potentially tighter policy amid stronger U.S. labor market data and higher core inflation, creating a widening interest rate differential that favors the greenback.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.
• U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.
• Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1’s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.
• Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.
• ​National housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.
• Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation’s durable path to 2%.
• Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade/geopolitical developments ahead of June.
• The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices plunged as investors reacted optimistically to reports of a draft US-Iran framework that could reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz within weeks. Brent crude fell 5.3% to $94.29/barrel, and WTI dropped 5.5% to $88.68/barrel in volatile Asian trading, reversing earlier gains after US strikes on Iranian targets had pushed prices above $100.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 28 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 98.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.51
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1656

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1590

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1700

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 185.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 184.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 186.25
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% FIbonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8673

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% FIbonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8644
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8697
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3435

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3343
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3511
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% FIbonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 213.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 212.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 215.12
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7861

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7826
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7919
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 159.16

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 158.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 159.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                           

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3821

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3775

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3869

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7154

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.719

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7180

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5879

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5834

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5919

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 50,119.72

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% FIbonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 49,703.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 51,050.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 25,057.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 24,613

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,569.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 7,499.39

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 7,449.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,569.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 76,432.26

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance,, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 73,253.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 77,895.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,086.84

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.969.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,146.67
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 92.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 84.66
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 98.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,474.35

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,375.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,549.45
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 28th May 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.55%, Shanghai Composite down 1.14% Hang Seng down 2.45% ASX down 1.71%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,401.37 (-1.78%) Silver at $72.385 (-3.34%), Brent Oil at $95.74 (3.76%), WTI Oil at $92.26 (4.06%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.530, UK 10-year yield at 4.8610, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9843

News & Data:

• (USD) CB Consumer Confidence  93.1  to 91.9   expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets opened lower on Thursday as investors weighed mixed signals surrounding ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, despite a fragile ceasefire remaining in place.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said discussions with Tehran had shown some progress and stressed that Washington would give diplomacy “every chance to succeed.” However, President Donald Trump reiterated that the U.S. would not allow Iran to control the strategically important Strait of Hormuz under any agreement.

Conflicting reports over the status of a possible understanding between the two nations added to market uncertainty. Reuters reported, citing Iranian state media, that Tehran had agreed to restore commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to prewar levels within a month of reaching a deal with Washington. The White House later dismissed the report, calling claims of a memorandum of understanding “a complete fabrication.”

Oil prices moved higher amid the uncertainty. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for July gained 1.66% to $90.15 per barrel, while Brent crude futures rose 2.03% to $96.20.

Regional equities were mostly lower. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.36%, while the Kosdaq dropped 2.61%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was slightly lower, and the Topix declined 0.23%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.79%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 also declined.

Upcoming Events:

• 12:15 PM GMT – USD ADP Weekly Employment Change

The post Thursday 28th May 2026: Asia Markets Slip as Mixed Iran-U.S. Signals Weigh on Investor Sentiment first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Stocks Edge Higher with Peace Deal in Doubt – Dow up 0.36%

US equity markets closed at fresh record highs again overnight, although gains were relatively modest as investors continued to weigh geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Middle East. The Dow Jones rose 0.36% to finish at 50,644, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.02% to 7,520, and the Nasdaq added 0.07% to close at 26,674.

Market sentiment remained cautious after President Trump stated he was not satisfied with the progress of negotiations with Iran, creating concerns that hopes for a near-term peace agreement in the Gulf may be premature. Despite this, equity markets continued to show resilience, with investors still reluctant to significantly reduce risk exposure.

Currency and bond markets were comparatively subdued as traders waited for more concrete developments from the region and positioned ahead of today’s major US economic data releases. The US Dollar Index firmed slightly by 0.05% to 99.22, while Treasury markets were little changed, with the US 2-year yield rising marginally to 4.033% and the 10-year yield easing slightly to 4.483%.

Commodity markets saw significantly larger moves, with oil prices dropping sharply as geopolitical risk premium was pared back. Brent crude fell 4.60% to US$95.00 per barrel, while WTI crude dropped 4.65% to US$89.52. Gold also came under pressure after breaking through key technical support levels, declining 1.13% to US$4,454.95 per ounce.

Dollar in Focus for FX Today

FX traders are expecting plenty of volatility in the market today, especially in the latter sessions when we are likely to hear fresh updates on the war between the US and Iran, and then key inflation numbers in the States. News of more missile strikes from the US against Iran has added further doubt to the chances of a peace deal being signed anytime soon, and the dollar is likely to gain ground again if hostilities look set to resume. Later in the day, the release of key inflation data should also see moves in the greenback. The Core PCE remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, and any stronger-than-expected result is likely to reinforce expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated for longer, further reducing market hopes for rate cuts later this year and seeing the dollar take fresh steps higher against the majors. If the two factors combine, then expect to see the majors break into fresh ranges during the New York session today.

Inflation Data and Geopolitics to Dictate Markets Today

Once again, geopolitics is likely to dominate market sentiment today, with anything new on the Middle East likely to spark fresh volatility. However, later in the day, a big data drop in the US will bring investors’ attention back to fundamentals, with the Core PCE Price Index (exp +0.3% m/m, +3.3% y/y) the big focus. Preliminary GDP (exp +2.0% q/q) and Weekly Unemployment Claims Data (exp 211) are also scheduled; however, expect the inflation data to have the greater impact. Earlier in the day, markets will also monitor New Zealand’s Annual Budget Release during Asian trade, while comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel may provide further direction for European currencies ahead of the key US data releases tonight.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 28/05/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.