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IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 29 September 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
The Asian session was characterized by cautious optimism in equity markets, offset by specific sectoral pressures. The US government shutdown risk emerged as the dominant theme affecting all asset classes, creating dollar weakness that benefited most Asian currencies. Oil markets faced the most significant pressure from OPEC+ production policies, while technology disruptions in South Korea highlighted infrastructure vulnerabilities without major market impact. The Japanese yen’s strength against a weaker dollar was the most notable currency movement, supported by reduced US rate cut expectations and potential BoJ policy adjustments ahead.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Traders entering European and U.S. sessions today should prioritize monitoring developments around the U.S. government shutdown negotiations, as this poses the most immediate systemic risk. The combination of Fed speakers throughout the week, critical inflation data from Spain, and energy market pressures from resumed Kurdish oil exports and OPEC+ production plans creates a complex backdrop requiring careful attention to both political and economic developments. The potential delay in key U.S. economic data due to a shutdown adds a layer of uncertainty for Fed policy expectations heading into the October meeting.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Pending Home Sales m/m (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Monday’s trading saw the US dollar on the defensive amid rising government shutdown risks that could delay crucial economic data releases, including Friday’s jobs report. While technical indicators show the dollar maintaining strength near three-week highs with DXY around 98.15, market uncertainty over potential data disruptions and Fed policy implications created cautious positioning. Key developments include USD/JPY approaching 150, moderating Fed rate cut expectations (90% October probability), and upcoming speeches from multiple Fed officials. The week’s critical test remains Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data, with forecasts ranging from 39k-85k jobs added, assuming the report proceeds despite shutdown concerns.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 16–17, 2025, meeting, marking the first policy rate adjustment since December 2024 after five consecutive holds.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objective of achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, acknowledging recent labor market softening and continued tariff-driven price pressures.
• Policymakers expressed elevated concern about downside risks to growth, citing a stalling labor market, modest job creation, and an unemployment rate drifting up toward 4.4%. At the same time, inflation remains above target, with CPI at 3.2% and core inflation at 3.1% as of August 2025; higher energy and food prices, largely attributable to tariffs, continue to weigh on headline measures.
• Although economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter, the growth outlook has weakened. Q3 GDP growth is estimated near 1.0% (annualized), with full-year 2025 GDP growth guidance revised to 1.2%, reflecting slowing household consumption and tighter financial conditions.
• In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% for the year, with headline PCE inflation revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2025. The Committee anticipates core PCE inflation to remain stubborn, requiring sustained vigilance and a flexible approach to risk management.
• The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach and openness to further adjustments should employment or inflation deviate meaningfully from current forecasts. Several members dissented, either advocating a larger 50-basis-point cut or preferring no adjustment at this meeting, revealing heightened divergence within the Committee.
• Balance sheet reduction continues at a measured pace. The monthly Treasury redemption cap remains at $5B and the agency MBS cap at $35B, as the Board aims to support orderly market conditions in the face of evolving global and domestic uncertainty
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Pending Home Sales m/m (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s performance on September 29, 2025, reflects the confluence of multiple bullish factors: continued Federal Reserve accommodation expectations, persistent geopolitical tensions, record central bank buying, and China’s strategic push to become a global gold custodian. With technical indicators remaining overwhelmingly positive and institutional forecasts pointing toward $4,000+ levels, gold appears positioned to extend its historic rally despite short-term consolidation periods. The metal’s role as both a monetary asset and geopolitical hedge continues attracting diverse investor classes in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Spanish Flash CPI y/y (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Monday, September 29, 2025, presented a mixed picture for the Euro. While the currency showed intraday strength against the dollar and maintained levels near multi-month highs, underlying economic indicators revealed growing challenges. The return to manufacturing contraction, declining exports to the US, and anticipated uptick in inflation suggest the ECB may need to carefully balance its policy approach in the coming months. However, the resilient services sector, stable inflation near target, and improved growth projections provide some support for the single currency’s medium-term outlook.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council kept the three key ECB interest rates unchanged at its September 11, 2025, meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. These levels have been maintained after the cuts earlier in 2025, reflecting the Council’s confidence that the current stance is consistent with the price stability mandate.
• Evidence that inflation is running close to the ECB’s medium-term target of 2% supported the decision to hold rates steady. Domestic price pressures are easing as wage growth continues to moderate, and financing conditions remain accommodative. Policymakers reaffirmed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to further policy moves, with no pre-commitment to a predetermined path amid ongoing global and domestic risks.
• Eurosystem staff projections foresee headline inflation averaging 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% in 2027. The 2025 and 2026 forecasts reflect a downward revision, primarily on lower energy costs and exchange rate effects, even as food inflation remains persistent. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) is expected at 2.0% for 2026 and 2027, with only minor changes since prior rounds.
• Real GDP growth in the euro area is projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. A robust first quarter—partly due to firms accelerating exports ahead of anticipated tariff hikes—cushioned a weaker outlook for the remainder of 2025. While business investment continues to face uncertainty from ongoing global trade disputes, especially with the US, government investment and infrastructure spending are expected to provide some support to the outlook..
• Rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market boost household spending. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• Rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market boost household spending. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• All future interest rate decisions will continue to be guided by the integrated assessment of economic and financial data, the inflation outlook, and underlying inflation dynamics, and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission—without any pre-commitment to a specific future rate path.
• The ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining predictably, as maturities have ceased to be reinvested. Balance-sheet normalization continues in line with the ECB’s previously communicated schedule.
• The next meeting is on 29 to 30 October 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc remains remarkably resilient, supported by its safe-haven appeal and the SNB’s measured monetary policy approach. While U.S. tariffs pose significant challenges to the Swiss economy with projected GDP impacts and job losses, the currency continues to benefit from global risk-off sentiment and monetary policy divergence. The SNB’s decision to pause rate cuts at zero reflects a balanced approach between supporting the economy and maintaining currency stability, though the central bank remains prepared to intervene if necessary. Looking ahead, the franc’s performance will largely depend on the evolution of trade tensions, global economic conditions, and the SNB’s policy response to these challenges.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labour market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound faces a challenging environment as it contends with a strengthening US dollar, domestic economic slowdown, mounting fiscal concerns, and trade tensions. While Monday’s modest recovery provides some respite from last week’s sharp declines, the pound remains vulnerable to further weakness without significant improvement in UK economic fundamentals or resolution of fiscal uncertainties. The upcoming week will be crucial in determining whether sterling can establish a sustainable recovery or continue its downward trajectory toward multi-week lows.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted on 18 September 2025 by a majority (expected split likely 7–2 or 6–3) to hold the Bank Rate steady at 4.00%, following the August rate cut. Most members cited persistent inflation and mixed indicators on growth and employment, while a minority favored further easing due to the cooling labor market and subdued GDP growth.
• The Committee decided to decrease the pace of quantitative tightening, planning to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases by £67.5 billion over the next 12 months instead of the prior £100 billion pace, with the gilt balance now standing near £558 billion. This reflects increased volatility in bond markets and a shift to a more gradual approach.
• Headline inflation rose unexpectedly to 3.8% in July and is projected at 4% for September, above the Bank’s 2% target. Price pressures are driven by regulated energy costs and ongoing food price increases. While previous disinflation has been substantial, core inflation remains elevated and sticky.
• The MPC expects headline inflation to remain above target through Q4, with a resumption of the downward trend projected for early 2026 as energy and regulated price pressures abate. The Committee remains watchful for signs of persistent inflation despite previous policy tightening.
• UK GDP growth is stagnant, with business and consumer activity subdued. Recent labor market data show rising unemployment rates (now at 4.7%) and stabilizing wage growth (holding near 5%), indicating slack but continued wage price pressure. The Committee remains cautious amid lackluster demand and soft survey sentiment.
• Pay growth and employment indicators have moderated further, alongside confirmation from business surveys that pay settlements are slowing. The Committee expects wage growth to decelerate significantly through Q4 and the rest of 2025.
• Global uncertainty persists due to volatile energy prices, supply chain disruptions linked to Middle East conflicts, and renewed trade tensions. The MPC remains vigilant in tracking transmission of external cost/wage shocks to UK inflation.
• Risks to inflation are considered two-sided. While subdued domestic growth and softening labor activity suggest scope for easing, persistent inflation requires caution. The MPC anticipates a slow, gradual reduction path in rates, continuing its data-dependent approach with careful adjustment as warranted by economic developments.
• The Committee’s bias remains toward maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance until firmer evidence emerges that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target. All future decisions will remain highly data dependent, with a strong emphasis on evolving demand, inflation expectations, costs, and labor market conditions.
• The next meeting is on 6 November 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar faces multiple headwinds as it enters the final quarter of 2025. The Bank of Canada’s dovish pivot, evidenced by the September rate cut and signals of potential further easing, contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve’s more cautious approach to monetary policy. This divergence has contributed to a widening interest rate differential that undermines CAD appeal.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate to 2.50% at its September 17 meeting, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.25%. This marks the first rate cut since early 2025, as the Bank responded to a string of softer inflation prints and persistent economic headwinds.
• The Council cited continued U.S. tariff volatility and slow progress on trade negotiations as major contributors to ongoing uncertainty. While headline tariffs have not escalated further, the unpredictability of U.S. policy remains a significant risk for Canadian exports and business confidence.
• Uncertainty about U.S. trade policy and recurring tariff threats continued to weigh on growth prospects. The Bank flagged downside risks to the export sector, with survey data indicating ongoing hesitancy among manufacturers and exporters.
• After modest growth in Q1, Canada’s economy slipped into contraction, with GDP shrinking by 0.8% in Q2 and forecast to decrease again by 0.8% in Q3. Economic weakness has been most pronounced in manufacturing and goods-producing sectors affected by trade frictions and softer U.S. demand.
• Early estimates show that growth stabilized in September but remained well below the Bank’s 2% forecast for Q4. Manufacturing output has improved slightly—supported by a modest rebound in petroleum and mining activity—while consumer spending and retail sales were largely flat.
• Consumer spending remained subdued as households continued to limit discretionary purchases amid uncertainty and a slower job market. Housing activity stayed weak, despite earlier government efforts to boost affordability and modest gains in some real estate segments.
• Headline CPI inflation edged up to 1.9% in August, undershooting economist expectations but still showing emerging pressures from shelter and imported goods costs. Core inflation metrics were mixed, though price growth remains just below the Bank’s 2% target.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed its cautious approach, emphasizing that while further rate cuts are possible, the pace will hinge on the path of U.S. tariffs, domestic inflation dynamics, and signs of a sustainable recovery. The Bank remains vigilant against the risk of inflation falling below target in the face of economic slack.
• The next meeting is on 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Monday’s oil market decline reflects growing concerns about an emerging supply glut as OPEC+ continues ramping up production while Kurdistan exports return to markets. Despite ongoing geopolitical supply disruptions from Ukraine’s strikes on Russian infrastructure, the market is increasingly focused on oversupply risks heading into late 2025 and 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 29 September 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 98.63

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 96.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 100.19
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 1.1584

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8%  Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up

1st support: 1.1398

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1846

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 173.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 172.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 175.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP: 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 0.8690

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8611
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8767
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8 Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3449

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.313
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3747
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 197.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 196.19
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 201.19
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 0.7926

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7853
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8054
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce off toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 148.31

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 145.39

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 151.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce off toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3864

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 1.3740

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4157

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6600

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.6399

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6794

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5812

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5649

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5989

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a bullish move toward the 1st resistance.  

Pivot: 45,683.56
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 44,863.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 47,367.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could rise toward the pivot and could make a bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,008.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 23,153.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,639.02

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 6,504.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,142.67

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,976.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could rise toward the pivot and could make a bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 112,702.68
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 101,362.63

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 117,953.51

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could rise toward the pivot and could make a bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,251.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 3,676.47

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,857.94
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 64.62

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up

1st support: 62.16
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 68.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,646.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 3,501.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,790.54
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 29th September 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 29 September 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. markets were buoyed by strong consumer data and resilience in equities, but face headwinds from new tariffs and the risk of a government shutdown that could delay key macroeconomic releases, including the September jobs report. Equity indices posted highs, with notable stock-specific moves (EA, Intel, PCAR), while the dollar and yields remained firm amid inflation and spending strength. Oil outperformed among commodities, driven by supply factors.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Monday’s Asian trading session will be dominated by China’s PMI releases, which will set the tone for regional market sentiment ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday. The combination of RBA policy pause expectations, potential BOJ hawkishness from strong Tankan data, and ongoing debate around India’s rate policy creates a complex backdrop for Asian markets.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Pending Home Sales m/m (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar begins the week from a position of strength, supported by robust economic data, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and persistent inflationary pressures. While technical indicators suggest potential for further gains toward the 99.00 level, the currency faces near-term risks from potential government shutdown complications and evolving Fed policy expectations. The market’s focus will remain on incoming economic data, particularly employment figures, and Fed officials’ commentary for directional cues. The balance between economic resilience and employment concerns continues to shape the dollar’s trajectory, with traders positioning for what could be a pivotal week in determining the Fed’s policy path for the remainder of 2025.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 16–17, 2025, meeting, marking the first policy rate adjustment since December 2024 after five consecutive holds.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objective of achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, acknowledging recent labor market softening and continued tariff-driven price pressures.
• Policymakers expressed elevated concern about downside risks to growth, citing a stalling labor market, modest job creation, and an unemployment rate drifting up toward 4.4%. At the same time, inflation remains above target, with CPI at 3.2% and core inflation at 3.1% as of August 2025; higher energy and food prices, largely attributable to tariffs, continue to weigh on headline measures.
• Although economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter, the growth outlook has weakened. Q3 GDP growth is estimated near 1.0% (annualized), with full-year 2025 GDP growth guidance revised to 1.2%, reflecting slowing household consumption and tighter financial conditions.
• In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% for the year, with headline PCE inflation revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2025. The Committee anticipates core PCE inflation to remain stubborn, requiring sustained vigilance and a flexible approach to risk management.
• The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach and openness to further adjustments should employment or inflation deviate meaningfully from current forecasts. Several members dissented, either advocating a larger 50-basis-point cut or preferring no adjustment at this meeting, revealing heightened divergence within the Committee.
• Balance sheet reduction continues at a measured pace. The monthly Treasury redemption cap remains at $5B and the agency MBS cap at $35B, as the Board aims to support orderly market conditions in the face of evolving global and domestic uncertainty.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Pending Home Sales m/m (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s performance in late September 2025 represents one of the most sustained and powerful rallies in modern precious metals history. With prices trading near $3,790 per ounce and multiple fundamental drivers supporting further gains, the precious metal appears positioned to challenge the $4,000 level in the coming months. Central bank demand, Fed policy accommodation, geopolitical tensions, and robust investment flows all point to continued strength, though near-term consolidation around current levels remains possible as markets digest recent gains.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar faces a critical juncture as it navigates between domestic inflation pressures that support the currency and global growth concerns that weigh on commodity demand. Tuesday’s RBA meeting will likely reinforce the central bank’s data-dependent approach, with November remaining the most probable timing for the next rate cut. The currency’s performance will continue to be influenced by the interplay between RBA policy expectations, Chinese economic developments, US dollar strength, and commodity price movements, particularly iron ore.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at its October meeting on 29–30 September 2025, marking a second consecutive pause after August’s 25 basis point cut. The move affirms the Bank’s data-dependent approach as inflation continues to trend within the target range.
• Inflation indicators remained stable through September, with headline CPI likely anchoring near 2.2%—comfortably within the 2–3% band. Insurance and housing costs remain sticky but are increasingly offset by moderation in discretionary goods.
• Trimmed mean inflation is estimated at around 2.8%, signaling underlying pressures remain contained. The Board continues to flag food and energy price volatility as short-term risks, though the broader disinflation narrative holds.
• Global conditions remain a source of uncertainty. U.S. policy expectations and uneven growth in China continue to weigh on commodities, even as trade disruptions have eased marginally since mid-year.
• Domestic growth shows resilience in the housing and services sectors, though manufacturing remains subdued. Household incomes have stabilized, but consumption remains only modest, capped by high borrowing costs.
• The labor market maintains relative tightness, though job growth has slowed notably since the first half of the year. Underutilization has ticked higher, but overall employment conditions remain supportive.
• Wage growth is plateauing, reflecting softer labour demand. Weak productivity continues to keep unit labour costs elevated, underscoring a medium-term concern highlighted repeatedly by the RBA.
• Household consumption prospects remain fragile. The combination of high rents and weak discretionary appetite suggests risks of a consumer-led slowdown in Q4 if confidence fails to rebound.
• The Board reiterated that subdued household spending poses risks to business sentiment and may dampen investment and job creation in the coming quarters.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive. The RBA balanced confidence in inflation progress with caution around global and domestic demand risks, keeping further adjustments conditional on incoming data.
• The Bank reaffirmed its dual commitment to price stability and full employment, noting its readiness to act should conditions shift markedly.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar enters the week of September 29, 2025, facing multiple headwinds, including worse-than-expected economic data, expectations for aggressive monetary policy easing, and external pressures from China. While the appointment of Anna Breman as the new RBNZ Governor provides leadership stability, her tenure won’t begin until December, leaving acting Governor Christian Hawkesby to navigate the anticipated rate-cutting cycle.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.00% on 20 August 2025, marking a three-year low and continuing the easing cycle after July’s pause. The vote was split 4-2, with two members advocating a 50-basis-point cut, highlighting diverging views within the Committee.
• Policymakers indicated that significant uncertainty and a stalling economic recovery prompted this move, leaving the door open for further rate cuts later in the year, with a possible trough around 2.5% by December.
• Annual consumer price index inflation rose to 2.7% in the June quarter and is expected to reach 3% for the September quarter—at the upper end of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band—but medium-term expectations remain anchored near the 2% midpoint.
• Despite the near-term uptick, headline inflation is projected to return toward 2% by mid-2026, as tradables inflation pressures ease and significant spare capacity continues to dampen domestic price momentum.
• Domestic financial conditions are broadly aligning with MPC expectations, as lower wholesale rates have translated into reduced borrowing costs for households. However, declining consumption and investment demand, higher unemployment, and subdued wage growth reflect ongoing economic slack.
• GDP growth stalled in the second quarter of 2025, contrasting with earlier projections. High-frequency indicators point to continued weakness driven by rising prices for essentials, weakening household savings, and constrained business lending.
• The MPC cautioned that ongoing global tariff uncertainties and policy shifts, especially recent changes in US trade regulations, could amplify market volatility and present both upside and downside risks to New Zealand’s recovery.
• Subject to medium-term inflation pressures continuing to ease as projected, the MPC signaled scope for further OCR cuts, possibly down to 2.5% by year-end, consistent with the latest Monetary Policy Statement outlook.
• The next meeting is on 22 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen faces a complex environment as it enters the final quarter of 2025. While inflation remains above the BoJ’s 2% target, the pace of price increases is moderating, potentially delaying aggressive monetary tightening. The currency’s near-term direction will likely depend on whether USD/JPY can maintain support above 148.70, with political developments in Japan and US economic data providing additional volatility. Market participants are positioning for potential BoJ action in October or December, though the central bank’s cautious approach suggests any moves will be gradual and data-dependent.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 17 September, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
• The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
• The BOJ will continue its gradual reduction of monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). The scheduled amount of long-term government bond purchases remains unchanged from the prior decision, with a quarterly reduction pace of about ¥400 billion through March 2026 and about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026 onward, aiming for a purchase level near ¥2 trillion in January to March 2027.
• Japan’s economy continues to show a moderate recovery, with household consumption supported by rising incomes, although corporate activity has softened somewhat. Overseas economies remain on a moderate growth path, with the impact of global trade policies still weighing on Japan’s export and industrial production outlook.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices (excluding fresh food) remains in the mid-3% range. Inflationary pressures remain broad-based, with persistent cost-push factors in food and energy, alongside solid wage pass-through. However, input cost pressures from past import surges are showing early signs of easing.
• Short-term inflation momentum may moderate as cost-push effects diminish, though rent increases and service-related price gains tied to labor shortages are likely to provide support. Inflation expectations among firms and households continue a gradual upward drift.
• Looking ahead, the economy is projected to grow at a slower-than-trend pace in the near term due to external demand softness and cautious corporate investment plans. However, accommodative financial conditions and steady increases in real labor income are expected to underpin domestic demand.
• In the medium term, as overseas economies recover and global trade stabilizes, Japan’s growth potential is likely to improve. With persistent labor market tightness and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations, core inflation is projected to remain on a gradual upward trend, converging toward the 2% price stability target in the latter half of the projection horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 30 to 31 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets enter the week supported by geopolitical supply disruptions from Ukraine’s campaign against Russian energy infrastructure and OPEC+ production challenges. While current fundamentals support higher prices through Q4 2025, structural oversupply concerns and demand growth disappointments suggest the rally may face significant headwinds heading into 2026. The market’s focus will likely remain on escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions, OPEC+ production developments, and US economic indicators that could influence global oil demand patterns.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 29 September 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down -0.79%, Shanghai Composite up 0.13%, Hang Seng up 1.25% ASX up 0.73%
• Commodities : Gold at $3,826.40 (0.14%), Silver at $46.95 (0.31%), Brent Oil at $68.26 (-0.20%), WTI Oil at $65.22 (-0.37%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.161, UK 10-year yield at 4.747, Germany 10-year yield at 2.745

News & Data:

• (CAD) GDP m/m 0.2%  to 0.1% expected
• (USD) Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2%  to 0.2% expected

Markets Update:

Asian markets traded mostly higher on Monday as investors looked past the latest tariff developments, though Japanese shares lagged. The Nikkei 225 slipped 0.84% and the Topix shed 1.57%, retreating from record levels hit last week. In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi rebounded 1.25% after Friday’s steep fall on trade uncertainty, while the small-cap Kosdaq rose 1.29%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced 1.19% at the open and the Hang Seng Tech Index climbed 1.5%, though mainland China’s CSI 300 was little changed. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.71% ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s two-day policy meeting.

The RBA is widely expected to hold its cash rate steady at 3.6%, according to a Reuters poll. Economists at Commonwealth Bank cautioned that policymakers face rising pressure, pointing to August CPI figures signaling upside risks for third-quarter inflation. They also noted a cyclical upswing in activity data, but highlighted offsetting signs of softer employment and moderating wage growth, leaving the central bank in a more delicate position.

In corporate news, Sony Financial Group shares surged 36% on their market debut after being spun off from Sony Group. The unit, which includes Sony Life Insurance, Sony Assurance and Sony Bank, was listed at 150 yen per share, valuing it near 1 trillion yen ($6.7 billion). Sony said the separation would allow the financial arm to pursue its own capital needs while still tied to the group brand, as the parent allocates heavy investments to entertainment and semiconductors.

On Wall Street Friday, the Dow Jones rose 0.65%, the S&P 500 gained 0.59% and the Nasdaq advanced 0.44% following key inflation data. The rally ended a three-day losing streak for major indexes but wasn’t enough to prevent weekly declines, with the Nasdaq and S&P recording their first down week in four.

Upcoming Events: 

• 02:00 PM GMT – USD Pending Home Sales m/m
• 05:15 PM GMT – USD President Trump Speaks

The post Monday 29th September 2025: Asian Markets Mixed; Sony Financial Surges on Market Debut first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

It was an interesting week that financial markets battled through last week, with a plethora of fresh updates from central banks, central bankers, and data. Volatility remained relatively high with stock markets and gold drifting lower from all-time record levels and currencies breaking into new weekly ranges.
It looks like being another busy week ahead for traders with a strong focus on US markets again, that will culminate on the key US jobs numbers on Friday afternoon. The Reserve Bank of Australia will make its latest rate call and there are some key inflation data numbers out of Europe, but most market participants are looking at the US updates for any fresh direction.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It is relatively quiet on the data front on Monday; however, the central bank speakers circuit is in full force again with members of the Buba, the MPC, and the Fed all scheduled to speak throughout the day. The London session sees the release of key Spanish Flash CPI numbers and we also have Pending Home Sales data out of the US, but traders are expecting relatively smooth trading conditions.

The calendar kicks into action on Tuesday with risk events scheduled across all three sessions. The initial focus in the Asian session will be on Chinese markets with key PMI numbers due early in the day; however, it will swiftly move further south to the antipodes with the Reserve Bank of Australia due to make its latest interest rate decision. The European session sees the release of the German CPI data and ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak. The New York day has the first US jobs number of the week out when the JOLTS Job Openings data drops at the same time as the CB Consumer Confidence number.

The Asian session has little of note on the cards on Wednesday; however, we have more inflation data out in Europe, this time with the EU CPI numbers released. There is more US data due soon after the New York open with the ADP Non-Farms number followed by the ISM Manufacturing PMI data as well as the Weekly US Crude Oil Inventory update.

Chinese markets are on holiday on Thursday which may affect liquidity in the Asian session. There will be a strong focus on Swiss markets at the London open with key CPI numbers due out, with traders expecting moves in the franc especially after last week’s hold from the SNB. The US session has just the Weekly Unemployment Claims data scheduled.

It is non-farms day on Friday with traders expecting the US data to be the major focus for the day. However, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak in the Asian session, and this could see moves in the yen, with his comments coming just ahead of the weekend’s Japan Prime Minister election. German markets are on holiday on Friday, and we do hear from the ECB’s Christine Lagarde during the day; however, the US Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and Unemployment Rate updates are expected to dominate sentiment.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 29 September 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Stocks Push Higher After Inflation Data – Dow up 0.65%

US stock indices pushed higher in trading on Friday to close out the week in a positive mood after key US inflation data came in on expectations. The Core PCE data, the Fed’s favoured indicator, hit market expectations, increasing market pricing for another rate cut in October. The Dow gained 0.65% to 46,247, the S&P rallied 0.59% to 6,643, and the Nasdaq added 0.44% to move up to 22,484. The dollar took a hit after the data, the DXY closing down 0.38% at 98.18, while treasury yields were mixed: the 2-year down 1.2 basis points to 3.643% and the 10-year up 0.6 of a basis point to 4.176%. Oil prices moved higher again as geopolitical concerns increased on the escalating conflict in Ukraine, Brent up 1.02% to $70.13, and WTI up 1.14% to $65.72 a barrel. Gold also pushed back towards all-time levels hit earlier in the week on the back of those increased concerns and the weaker dollar, up 0.28% on the close to $3,759.98 an ounce.

Geopolitical Risks Increase to Start the Week

There has been a lot of focus on central banks over the last couple of weeks for investors, with the Fed, of course, front and centre after it made its first rate cut of the year. However, traders are now turning their attention to geopolitical risks that have been increasing over the last few weeks, particularly in Ukraine, where the war with Russia seems to be escalating sharply rather than receding. Just a few weeks ago, we had President Trump strongly touting a pending ceasefire, but the situation seems to have flipped sharply, and markets are reacting. Both Brent and WTI contracts recorded their best weeks since mid-June last week, and we have seen Gold hit record levels over the last week as well. Expect trader focus to remain on Ukraine in the coming days, with any further escalation in the fighting likely to see strong moves north for both Oil and Gold.

Quiet Calendar Day to Start the Week

It’s a relatively quiet data calendar day to kick off what will probably be another lively week ahead for global markets. There is little scheduled in the Asian session today, although traders may be pricing in the escalating conflict in Ukraine after more drone strikes over the weekend, which could see havens and Oil rally on the open. The London session sees the first of the week’s key inflation updates drop, with Spanish Flash CPI (exp +3.1% y/y) due out early in the day. We are also set to hear from several central bankers during the course of the day, with the MPC’s Ramsden and Buba President Joachim Nagel speaking early in the day before a raft of Fed members, including Waller, Hammack, Musalem, Williams, and Bostic, hit the circuit. The New York session also sees the first US data of the week in the form of the Pending Home Sales numbers; however, expect data coming later in the week to have a considerably greater impact.

The post General Market Analysis – 29/09/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the Thanksgiving Day on Monday, 13 October, 2025.

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +3).

Kind regards,

The IC Markets Team.

The post Thanksgiving Day Trading Schedule 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the Chung Yeung Holiday on Wednesday, 29th October, 2025

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +3).

Kind regards,

The IC Markets Team.

The post Chung Yeung Festival Holiday Trading Schedule 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the Chinese Mid Autumn Festival Day on Tuesday, 7 October, 2025.

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +3).

Kind regards,

The IC Markets Team.

The post Chinese Mid Autumn Festival Holiday Trading Schedule 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the Chinese National Day on Wednesday, 1 October, 2025.

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +3).

Kind regards,

The IC Markets Team.

The post Chinese National Day Trading Schedule 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.