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There were rumors yesterday that India was close to the finish line and that makes sense because deals can be passed without parliament there but I don’t know if the market has the patience for what’s shaping up.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Does not want China’s products unless they are fair
• Fairness with China includes IP
• I want China to do well, I want every country to do well
• Core GDP was up despite distortions

The question is how patient the market can be for some of these deals. I don’t believe anyone really knows what will happen when supply chains begin to break down because of empty cargo ships.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

From Reuters:

Saudi officials in recent weeks have briefed allies and industry exports, telling they the Kingdom can sustain a prolonged period of low oil prices.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a choppy day in the foreign exchange market, which isn’t unusual at month-end, particularly in a very volatile month.

The US dollar had been slackening in the last hour broadly but there is some life in stocks now and the dollar has rebounded. At the same time, the euro is particularly soft.

It’s tough to tie this back to newsflow as it as generally dovish today, which should hurt the US dollar. The market is taking a recessionary view with 132 bps in easing in the year ahead now priced in, compared to 125 bps yesterday.

At the same time, the market is trying to suss out what is coming in the trade war and there is no sign of a breakthough with China. That could happen fast but there is a line of thinking that it won’t happen unless stock markets go back to the lows. Today, Trump was telling Americans to ‘be patient’ which isn’t exactly comforting.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The comments from the Visa conference call regarding the consumer and the global macroeconomy were really something. They highlight that consumers are employed and that, as long as they remain that way, they’re going to keep on spending.

Some direct quotes from executives on the call:

• “In Q2 and through April 21, we have not seen any signs of overall consumer spending weakening.”
• “While spending growth differs among consumer spend bands, with the most affluent growing the fastest, all spend bands remain resilient and consistent with past quarters.”
• “Both discretionary and nondiscretionary spend remains strong.”
• Consumer spending shows resilience “in an uncertain and dynamic environment.”

Internationally:

• “Outside the U.S., we see similar stable trends.”
• “Within cross-border, volume growth was in line with Q4 2024 levels.”
• “We have seen some impacts from currency weakness and travel to specific countries, but the overall growth was above the pre-COVID trend.”

Travel and US-Canada travel was down

• “Within spend categories, there are some select areas such as in travel with airlines and lodging where growth has decelerated.”
• “We saw travel and entertainment growth decelerate, restaurant growth remained stable and retail and fuel growth improved.”
• “We did see a meaningful slowdown in the Canada to U.S. border.”

Uncertainty, yes but impacts unclear

• “There’s obviously more uncertainty today among consumers and businesses than there was several months ago. You see that in the consumer confidence metrics.”
• When asked about de minimis exemption tariffs related to China: “So far, we’re not seeing a material impact from tariffs related to China.”

There is an incredible divergence between consumer confidence and spending at the moment and that helps to explain why stock markets have rallied despite the trade war. That said, US equities were incredibly resilient just weeks before the March 2020 covid shutdowns even as the cases were spreading abroad.

The other take here could be that Americans spent money ahead of tariffs and Visa misinterpreted that as a sign of consumer strength.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

“I Do as the President Says”: Musk’s Edgy Pulse Check on Federal Employees

In a moment dripping with Muskian wit at President Trump’s live Cabinet meeting today, Elon Musk, not shy of controversy, explained the blunt reasoning behind his recent email “pulse check” to the federal workforce.

“Do you have a pulse? Do you have a pulse and two neurons?” Musk asked rhetorically, laying out what he described as a surprisingly “low bar” for federal employees: merely responding to an email.

“We’re simply trying to figure out if these people exist,” Musk quipped. “We suspect some on the payroll might literally be fictional or deceased.”

With a roughly 50% response rate from the estimated two million federal workers, Musk’s humorous tone underscored a stark reality: non-responsive employees might soon find themselves without a paycheck. “It’s not a high bar, guys,” Musk reminded, emphasizing taxpayer expectations. “Can they at least write an email?”

Asked directly if non-responsive employees faced termination, Musk sidestepped exact numbers but offered clarity on expectations: “If the job isn’t essential or isn’t being done well, then yes, those roles shouldn’t be funded by taxpayers.”

Musk’s directive emerged from a direct request by President Trump, who personally instructed him to be “more aggressive” in handling the sprawling bureaucracy.

“Yes, sir, Mr. President,” Musk recalled his response, smiling. “I do as the President says.”

But not all agencies seem to have taken the message seriously, with some instructing their staff the email was “voluntary.” Musk dismissed this, signaling another round of emails incoming, aimed at achieving full compliance.

“It’s not complicated,” Musk said, “just reply—even if it’s to say your work is too sensitive to discuss. Common sense.”

The tech titan’s blunt approach highlights an edgy yet serious debate: How many jobs in Washington are truly necessary? Musk insists the goal isn’t arbitrary firings but accountability. His humorous yet sharp-edged commentary might be exactly what taxpayers want to hear—someone finally asking, “Are these people even real?”

The message from Musk and Trump is clear: if federal workers can’t prove they’re alive and actively contributing, their government jobs might soon be extinct.

ForexLive.com will become investingLive.com by the end of this year.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +244K
• Gasoline -4003K vs -1031K expected
• Distillates +937K vs -1566K expected

Private inventories from the API late yesterday:

• Crude +3760K
• Gasoline -3140K
• Distillates -2520K

This is a good report for the bulls but the oil market is focused on demand months from now due to the trade war. There is also the OPEC decision on May 5 that could submarine the market.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US and Ukraine ran into last-minute hurdles on Wednesday as they were on the verge of signing a framework minerals deal, according to the FT.

The report said that Ukraine had sought to revisit terms agreed on the weekend but it could still be signed if Ukraine returned to the original terms.

However Ukraine said that nothing can be signed because it must be ratified by parliament first.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month +2.0%
• Pending home sales 6.1 vs 1.0% estimate
• Year-over-year, pending transactions -0.6%.
• Index 76.5 vs 72.1 last month
• Mortgage rates fell by around 20 to 30 basis points in March from the first two months of this year. The average mortgage rate was 6.65% in March, down from a 6.96% average in January and down from a 6.84% average in February.

• Northeast: PHSI fell 0.5% to 62.5 (down 3.0% year-over-year)

• Midwest: PHSI rose 4.9% to 77.7 (up 1.4% year-over-year)

• South: PHSI surged 9.8% to 94.1 (down 0.4% year-over-year)

• West: PHSI increased 4.8% to 58.6 (down 2.0% year-over-year)

According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun,

“Home buyers are acutely sensitive to even minor fluctuations in mortgage rates. While contract signings are not a guarantee of eventual closings, the solid rise in pending home sales implies a sizable build-up of potential home buyers, fueled by ongoing job growth.”

He added:

“In March, signed contracts surged 34.1% from February based on non-seasonally adjusted raw data, reflecting a pattern consistent with previous years. In addition, inventory levels rose by 8.1% in March from the prior month, indicating a more dynamic housing-market environment.”

The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Core PCE (excluding food & energy):

• Prior was +2.8
• Core m/m +% vs +0.1% exp
• Unrounded core PCE +% vs +0.38% m/m prior
• Supercore (services ex-shelter) vs +3.34% y/y prior
• Services inflation vs +0.375% m/m prior

Headline PCE

• Headline PCE +% y/y vs +2.2% expected
• Deflator +% m/m vs +0.0% expected
• Unrounded headline +% vs +0.34% m/m prior

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Gold is back to flat today after falling earlier.

The market is now pricing in 131 bps in Fed easing in the coming year, up 6 bps from yesterday following a couple of poor economic data readings today. The view is that the Fed will cut despite rising inflation as the economy slows.

Technically, this is now the fourth dip down to the $3260 level and it’s held each time.

We also have Peter Navarro on TV right now sprouting all kinds of non-sense and that isn’t exactly screaming to buy the US dollar.

I’m not sure it’s time to get bullish gold right away but if it can hold this low and get back above $3375, that’s a very strong signal.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump is washing his hands of the stock market.

This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s. I didn’t take over until
January 20th. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are
starting to move into the USA in record numbers. Our Country will boom,
but we have to get rid of the Biden “Overhang.” This will take a while,
has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers,
but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. BE PATIENT!!!.

I don’t think that ‘be patient’ is the message the market wants to hear with no trade deals announced, no talks with China and tariffs set to go back up on July 9.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.