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• Switzerland December seasonally adjusted unemployment rate 3.0% vs 3.0% expected
• Prior 3.0%

The reading meets estimates, so there’s nothing all too much to talk about. The number of registered unemployed persons did see a slight rise though to 147,275 people. And that is up from the 138,860 unemployed persons seen in November 2025. As for job vacancies, December saw a figure of 35,940 reported and that is also seen up from 32,670 in November.

But as the year draws to a close, perhaps it is better to look at how the Swiss jobless rate fared as a whole for the period during 2025.

The unemployment rate ends the year at 3.0% and that is up from 2.6% seen back in December 2024. Meanwhile, the number of registered unemployed persons have also increased to 147,275 from 130,293 back in December 2024. As for job vacancies, the figure back at the end of 2024 was 30,422.

Overall, the trend is rather clear. There is some slack coming back into the labour market and that’s seeing conditions soften further during the course of last year. And that is expected to carry on to the new year as well, with the jobless rate now currently hovering at the highest since July 2021.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

China and economic data numbers. It always just tends to play out nicely for Beijing’s narrative and this is one of those times. Say what you want about the December CPI report earlier in the day but it kept the 2025 full-year CPI at 0%. As such, lawmakers and policymakers can attest to the claim that China is “not in deflation territory”. How convenient.

As much as they can chalk this up as a win, deflationary pressures are going to be a mainstay problem for China in 2026. So, let’s look past what the numbers today said and look at the real story instead.

It all starts with the real estate sector crash and property market slump in China since 2021. Households feel the pinch of the property market slump and have to tighten the purse strings and opt to save more, instead of spending.

Then you have the push by Beijing to prioritise investment in key future industries, all as part of the green transition. That allows for factories to ramp up production at a pace that outweighs domestic demand, which has been hampered by the above development.

And in turn, that has led to the “involution” problem in China in the past year or so. Overcapacity in production, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels, leading to price wars among firms to aggressively clear out excess inventory.

It has gotten to a point where Beijing has even stepped in to pledge “anti-involution” policies for this year in trying to steer China’s socioeconomic issues back into a healthier place. However, it will take time and some things are just hard to really force. You can’t just turn on domestic demand with a snap of a finger.

The depressing price trend is clearly felt when viewing China’s producer price index, which has been in negative territory for 38 straight months now. The latest report shows a 1.9% year-on-year decline and while easing, it still reflects negative price developments as a whole.

So when Chinese companies cannot sell out their goods at home, what happens next? They turn to the international audience. And this is where the rest of the world needs to step up and take notice.

As Chinese firms look to stay competitive in bringing up their bottom line, they have to export their goods to outside of China. And besides just exporting finished goods, they are also exporting things like battery cells and power electronics at deflated prices. And this puts a deflationary anchor into the supply chains of other countries.

Adding to that is a weaker Chinese yuan currency, which makes these goods even cheaper and more attractive for foreign buyers. Thus, amplifying the impact of the deflationary anchor. The yuan might have performed well in 2025 but is still more than 10% weaker than where it was back in 2022.

For the better part of three years now, the focus of major economies has been on tackling stubborn inflation pressures. And to some extent, most have gotten that somewhat under control now with the potential for central banks to shift gears back towards rate hikes either later this year or perhaps next year.

However, China exporting deflation to the rest of the world is perhaps a key risk factor that should not be overlooked as it could really strike deep and get embedded into other countries’ economies without much notice. And even more so, when it hits at economies which are starting to soften.

The hope now is that Beijing’s “anti-involution” policies will come good and curb any disorderly price competition among manufacturers. But the key push by lawmakers and policymakers is to try and pivot towards a consumption-led model. However, I would argue that it isn’t so simple and it is the type of shift that could take years or even a decade.

So, yeah. This may not be talked about all too much as the risk of the situation remains low. But the narrative of China exporting deflation is arguably one that could be a key macro risk for markets come what may this year (or next).

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 09 January 2026

What happened in the Asia session?
China’s CPI data dominated the Asia session, showing inflation at a near three-year high of 0.8% y/y with easing PPI deflation, boosting hopes for demand recovery but underscoring need for more stimulus amid ongoing producer weakness; this spurred modest rebounds in Nikkei (+0.69%) and Hang Seng (+0.21%), while weighing on Kospi (-0.18%) and pressuring AUD, gold, and select equities ahead of US payrolls and tariff developments.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Traders prioritize U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (exp. 66K), Unemployment Rate (4.5%), and wage growth at 13:30 GMT, which could sway Fed expectations amid a cooling labor market, while earlier Eurozone retail sales (0.1% M/M) and German IP (0.0%) set the tone for ECB policy hints. Markets digest yesterday’s stock dips, oil rallies, and Trump’s defence boost, lifting shares like Lockheed Martin, with gold at $4,425 poised for gains and tariff fears pressuring commodities.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Average Hourly Earnings m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Non-Farm Employment Change (1:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (1:30 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (3:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. dollar index rose modestly by 0.26% to 98.936, amid a weakening euro at $1.165 and British pound at $1.3431, while gaining ground against the yen at 156.97, Swiss franc at 0.7995, Canadian dollar at 1.3868, and Swedish krona at 9.2246. This uptick reflects market positioning ahead of key U.S. data like the Nonfarm Payrolls report expected on January 9, with forecasts around 55k jobs and 4.5% unemployment, alongside ongoing Fed rate cut expectations and policy divergence from the ECB and BoE.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labour market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualised pace in Q2 2025, according to revised estimates. However, Q3 and Q4 are expected to face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions, such as the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signalling a gradual disinflation path. Updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labour market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for  27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Average Hourly Earnings m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Non-Farm Employment Change (1:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (1:30 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (3:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are experiencing a short-term bearish correction around $4,421-$4,477 per troy ounce on January 9, 2026, following a decline of about 0.18-0.79% from recent sessions amid ongoing volatility in precious metals. Analysts anticipate a potential rebound after testing support near $4,395, targeting levels above $4,505 if bullish momentum resumes, though a break below $4,365 could accelerate declines toward $4,305.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro remains under modest pressure near 1.1657 versus the dollar, reflecting softer Eurozone inflation at 2% in December and subdued German data that have dashed ECB rate hike hopes for 2026, per market pricing. While longer-term trends show yearly strength, traders eye upcoming regional inflation releases amid stable forecasts for a gradual EUR/USD recovery to 1.18 this quarter.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 4–5 January 2026 meeting, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40% and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision aligns with the assessment that the current stance supports medium-term price stability, as inflation edges below the 2% target while growth shows resilience amid balanced risks. Markets and commentary indicate value in holding steady, with no fixed path ahead given uncertainties in data.
• Price dynamics remain stable near target levels. Headline HICP inflation stood at 2.1% in November 2025, with projections for 1.9% in 2026 driven by base effects from energy and easing non-energy components. Services inflation persists somewhat elevated but trends toward moderation, alongside contained food pressures.
• December 2025 Eurosystem staff projections confirm headline inflation at 2.1% for 2025, declining to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 before nearing 2% in 2028. Downside risks from soft producer prices and anchored expectations offset potential upsides from geopolitics or fiscal measures.
• Euro area GDP growth remains resilient at subdued levels, with Q3 2025 at 0.3% qoq and forecasts around 1.2-1.4% for 2025-2027. Surveys signal stabilization, bolstered by public investment and external demand against softer private spending.
• The labour market stays tight overall, with unemployment steady at 6.4% through October 2025, near historic lows and solid participation. Real incomes support consumption as inflation eases, with credit conditions aiding gradual household and firm expansion.
• Business sentiment reflects caution over US policy, trade tensions, and tariffs, tempered by easing supply chains and a competitive euro. Export sectors gain a modest lift, while domestic drivers like investment build momentum.
• The Governing Council will continue to make data-dependent decisions meeting by meeting, assessing inflation outlook, underlying trends, and transmission. Both hikes and cuts remain possible based on data, avoiding preset paths amid uncertainties.
• Balance sheet normalization proceeds steadily, with APP and PEPP portfolios shrinking post-reinvestment halts, at a pace deemed suitable without market strain.

​The next meeting is on 4 to 5 February 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc maintains firmness near multi-year highs versus the USD at around 0.7990, supported by safe-haven demand from global uncertainties and stable SNB policy at 0%, though forecasts eye a near-term dip to 0.7930 before recovery; over the past month, CHF has gained 0.11%.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its 11 December 2025 monetary policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, extending the pause that began in September as the Governing Board judges that current settings are sufficient to keep inflation near, but still below, its target while avoiding an unnecessary move into negative rates.
• Recent data show that the tentative rebound in Swiss inflation has stalled, with headline CPI easing from 0.1% year‑on‑year in October to 0.0% in November and core inflation slipping to about 0.4%, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain very weak and that deflation risks, while contained, have not fully disappeared.
• The SNB’s conditional inflation forecast is likely to remain close to the September projections, with inflation still seen averaging roughly 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027 under an unchanged policy rate path, though the latest CPI prints argue for a slightly lower near‑term profile and keep open the option of renewed easing if activity or prices weaken further.
• The global backdrop has deteriorated further, as continuing U.S. tariff actions and softer external demand weigh on world trade, while uncertainty in key European and U.S. markets for Swiss exports persists, leaving the SNB cautious about the growth outlook despite Switzerland’s relatively resilient domestic demand.
• Business and labour-market sentiment in export‑oriented manufacturing remains subdued, with firms reporting pressure on margins from the still‑strong franc and softer foreign orders, although the broader economy is still expected to grow at around 1–1.5% in 2025 and unemployment only drifting up gradually from low levels.
• The SNB continues to stress its willingness to act if deflation risks re‑emerge, reiterating that it can ease policy through renewed rate cuts or targeted foreign‑exchange intervention if necessary, while also highlighting its commitment to transparent communication, including the publication of detailed minutes from recent assessments and ongoing dialogue with international partners on FX policy

The next meeting is on 19 March 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British Pound shows mixed signals today, trading around 1.3418-1.3520 against the USD amid light post-holiday volumes and anticipation of key US Non-Farm Payrolls data later at 13:30 GMT. Forecasts suggest a potential rally test near 1.3505 resistance before a possible decline to 1.3095, though a breakout above 1.3645 could signal stronger gains toward 1.3865.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on 18 December 2025, with the current Bank Rate standing at 4.00 per cent after being held in a close 5–4 vote at the 5 November meeting. Market pricing and analyst commentary point to a high risk of a 25‑basis‑point cut to 3.75 per cent, but this remains conditional on incoming inflation and labour‑market data, so the December note should be treated as pre‑decision guidance rather than an ex‑post summary.
• The BoE is expected to leave its quantitative tightening (QT) framework broadly unchanged through year‑end, maintaining the lower reduction pace in gilt holdings that was set earlier in 2025. Official communications still characterise the existing QT path as consistent with a restrictive stance, with policymakers stressing that balance‑sheet reduction will remain gradual and sensitive to market‑liquidity conditions.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 3.6 per cent year‑on‑year in October 2025, down from 3.8 per cent in September, helped by softer energy and goods prices, though it remains almost twice the 2 per cent target. Underlying inflation pressures, particularly in services, have continued to moderate only slowly, so the MPC’s central projection still envisages inflation moving closer to, but not yet reaching, 3 per cent over the course of 2026, contingent on further normalisation in energy and wage dynamics.
• UK economic activity remains weak heading into the December meeting, with the labour market showing further signs of slackening. The unemployment rate has risen toward just above 5 per cent on the latest three‑month figures to October, while overall regular pay growth has slowed to around the mid‑4 per cent range, reinforcing the view that domestic cost pressures are gradually easing.
• External conditions continue to cloud the outlook, with fragile global growth and fluctuating commodity prices contributing to bouts of financial‑market volatility. The MPC has highlighted that renewed global energy or food price shocks could temporarily slow the pace of disinflation, but such risks are currently judged unlikely to derail the medium‑term downward trajectory for inflation if domestic demand stays subdued.
• The balance of risks around the inflation outlook remains finely poised. Downside risks are linked to persistently weak domestic demand and rising unemployment, while upside risks come from still‑elevated inflation expectations, sticky services inflation, and the possibility that structural changes in the labour market leave less slack than conventional indicators suggest.
• Overall, the MPC’s stance going into December is restrictive but increasingly open to a gradual easing cycle, with any rate cuts expected to be measured and data‑dependent. Policymakers have reiterated that the Bank Rate will need to stay in restrictive territory until they are confident inflation is on a sustainable path back to the 2 per cent target, and they have signalled that the profile of cuts, once started, is likely to be shallow rather than rapid.
• The next meeting is on 5 February 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Strong Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Employment Change (1:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar faced continued pressure, with USD/CAD climbing to 1.3875 due to a stronger US Dollar fueled by geopolitical events like US involvement in Venezuela and softer commodity prices, including oil; the loonie steadied near a one-month low of 1.3888 while traders eyed upcoming jobs reports from both nations and technical supports around 1.3790-1.38, with forecasts pointing to a potential rebound above 1.40 amid Bank of Canada-Fed rate gaps and trade optimism.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council left the target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at its 10 December 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations and signalling that the earlier easing cycle has likely concluded. The Bank noted that while global tariff tensions and trade uncertainty persist, the external backdrop has stabilised somewhat, reducing the need for additional insurance cuts even as world trade remains fragile.
• The Council acknowledged that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and tariffs continues to weigh on business sentiment, but recent data show Canadian manufacturing and goods exports holding up better than anticipated. Surveys cited by the Bank suggest export order books have stopped deteriorating, with firms reporting some rebuilding of backlogs despite still‑cautious capital spending plans.
• Canada’s economy rebounded more strongly than expected in the third quarter, with real GDP expanding at an annualised pace of about 2.6% after a 1.8% contraction in Q2, largely on the back of higher crude exports and government spending. Monthly data show output rising 0.2% in September, though flash estimates point to a softer start to Q4 as some sectors give back earlier gains.
• Service sector activity has firmed, with indicators showing the services PMI back above the 50 threshold and broadening gains in business and professional services. However, consumer-facing categories remain mixed, as still‑elevated price levels and only modest real income growth keep a lid on discretionary spending even as tourism and technology‑related services expand.
• Housing markets have continued to stabilise, with national resale activity and prices edging higher through the autumn alongside the earlier decline in borrowing costs. The Bank noted that while some major urban centres are seeing renewed price pressures, tighter underwriting standards and still‑high affordability constraints are expected to cap the pace of any rebound.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 2.2% year over year in October and is estimated to have remained near that rate in November, keeping it slightly above the 2% target but comfortably within the 1%–3% control range. Core measures have drifted lower, with CPI‑median and CPI‑trim around 3% or below, reinforcing the assessment that underlying price pressures are gradually moderating even as gasoline and some shelter components remain volatile.
• The Governing Council reiterated that the current policy rate is “about the right level” to keep inflation close to target while supporting the economy through a period of structural adjustment, and it signalled a shift away from near‑term easing expectations. While the Bank did not rule out future adjustments, officials stressed that, barring a material downside surprise to growth or inflation, further rate cuts are unlikely before 2026, and attention is now focused on the durability of the recovery and the evolution of core inflation.
• The next meeting is on 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are experiencing downward pressure amid a global supply surplus and geopolitical shifts. Brent crude has fallen below $60 per barrel to around $58–59, while WTI trades near $55–58, reflecting oversupply estimated at 2–3 million barrels per day in early 2026. OPEC+ is signaling readiness for production cuts to counter the surplus from heightened 2025 output by both OPEC and non-OPEC producers.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 09 January 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 09 January 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Weekly initial jobless claims rising slightly to 208,000 (from a revised 200,000), signaling stable low layoffs; nonfarm productivity accelerating to 4.9% annualized in Q3 2025 (up from prior estimates), with unit labor costs falling 1.9%; and the October 2025 trade deficit narrowing sharply to $29.4 billion from $48.1 billion, attributed to tariffs affecting trade flows. These releases reinforced a resilient labor market and improved trade balance amid policy influences like tariffs, tempering rate-cut expectations from the Fed.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Watch for continued volatility in regional indices like the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng, which saw declines on Thursday amid Wall Street pullbacks, tech sector weakness, and escalating China-Japan tensions. Key events on Friday include the U.S. December jobs report, anticipated to shape global risk sentiment and yen movements around USD/JPY’s range of 155.56-157.30, alongside any fresh updates on geopolitical risks from Venezuela.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Average Hourly Earnings m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Non-Farm Employment Change (1:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (1:30 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (3:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar maintains a tentative upward bias following a 9.51% annual decline in 2025, its worst in eight years, as markets await Friday’s nonfarm payrolls and ISM services data that could influence Fed policy expectations. Despite a third straight daily gain into January 8, broader pressures from Fed easing (now at 3.50%-3.75%), ECB policy divergence, and weakening US data like 64k payrolls in November continue to weigh on the greenback.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path. Updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Average Hourly Earnings m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Non-Farm Employment Change (1:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Rate (1:30 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (3:00 pm GMT)

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAUUSD) prices experienced a slight decline, closing around $4,421 USD per troy ounce after dropping 0.79% from the prior day, amid ongoing correction patterns within a broader bullish channel. Forecasts for January 9 suggest continued short-term downward pressure, potentially testing support near $4,255–$4,313, though analysts anticipate rebounds toward higher targets like $4,509 or even above $5,045 if bullish momentum resumes.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded around 0.6693 against the USD on, marking a slight decline of 0.42% from the prior session amid ongoing market volatility. Despite this dip, the AUD has shown resilience, strengthening 0.77% over the past month and 8.03% over the last year, buoyed by expectations of tighter Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy.

​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November 2025 policy meeting, adopting a cautious tone amid a surprise uptick in inflation data for the September quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive pause since the 25 basis point cut in August. The Board attributed some of the inflation rise to temporary factors like higher petrol prices and council rates, but noted signs of more persistent pressures from consumer demand.​
• Policymakers emphasized vigilance on inflation, with trimmed mean inflation expected to remain elevated in the near term before nearing the 2–3% target midpoint by mid-2027. Recent data showed underlying inflation staying above target until at least the second half of 2026, prompting upward revisions to forecasts. Capacity pressures are seen as slightly more pronounced than previously assessed, delaying any easing.
• Headline CPI for the September quarter exceeded expectations, driven partly by temporary items, while underlying measures signal ongoing stickiness. The shift to monthly CPI reporting, with the first full edition in November 2025, will enhance real-time inflation monitoring. Housing and services remain resilient contributors to price pressures.
• Domestic demand shows firmness in services alongside below-trend growth elsewhere, with capacity pressures not expected to ease significantly. The labor market is gradually softening, with unemployment projected to stabilize around 4.4%, though wage growth and productivity dynamics keep unit labor costs a concern. Household spending faces headwinds from high borrowing costs.​
• Global risks include geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility, set against modestly revised-up world growth outlooks. The Board describes its policy as mildly restrictive and data-dependent, balancing inflation control with employment goals. No rate hike was considered despite the inflation surprise.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive to address lingering price stability risks amid household and global vulnerabilities. Communications reaffirm the dual mandate of 2–3% inflation and full employment, with readiness to adjust based on incoming data.​
• Market expectations point to the cash rate holding through early 2026, with a possible modest cut to 3.3% mid-year if inflation eases as forecast. The new monthly CPI data will be key for timely insights.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 2 to 3 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded weakly against the US Dollar, closing around 0.5754 after a 0.32% decline, amid ongoing bearish pressures from technical indicators and global risk aversion. Forecasts for the week of January 5-9 suggest a potential bullish correction toward 0.5825 resistance, but analysts anticipate a rebound lower, targeting below 0.5485 if support at 0.5705 breaks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen experienced mild downward pressure amid ongoing USD strength and anticipation of key US employment data. USD/JPY hovered around 156.80, reflecting a cautious market stance following recent slips toward 157 per dollar driven by geopolitical tensions with China and divergent BOJ-Fed policy outlooks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan will meet on 18–19 December with markets almost fully pricing a 25-basis-point hike, which would raise the short-term policy rate from 0.50% to around 0.75%, as the bank moves further away from its ultra-loose stance while stressing that any tightening will remain gradual and data-dependent.
• The BOJ is expected to continue guiding the uncollateralized overnight call rate in a narrow band around the new policy rate, near 0.75%, while signaling that the pace and timing of any additional hikes will depend on how past increases affect bank lending, corporate financing conditions, and overall economic activity.
• The quarterly path of JGB purchases remains on a pre-announced, gradual taper: outright purchases are being reduced by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, then by roughly ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, with the bank still aiming for JGB purchases to settle near ¥2 trillion in Q1 2027 and retaining flexibility to adjust the pace if market functioning or yield volatility deteriorate.
• Japan’s economy has softened in the near term, with Q3 2025 GDP contracting at an annualized rate of approximately 2.3%, as weaker residential investment and external demand weighed on activity. Meanwhile, business sentiment in manufacturing has recently improved to a roughly four-year high.
• Core consumer inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to around 3.0% year-on-year in October, up from 2.9% in September and remaining above the BOJ’s 2% target, while the “core-core” measure excluding both fresh food and energy rose to about 3.1%, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures.
• In the very near term, some input-cost pressures are easing as earlier import price surges fade, but services inflation linked to labor shortages, along with steady wage gains, continues to support broader price momentum; firms’ and households’ medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored slightly above 2%, keeping short-term inflation risks tilted to the upside.
• For the coming quarters, the BOJ assesses that real growth will likely run below potential as the economy digests tighter financial conditions and past yen depreciation. However, accommodative real rates, positive real wage growth, and improving corporate sentiment are expected to help sustain a modest recovery in private consumption and business investment.
• Over the medium term, as overseas demand stabilizes and domestic labor markets remain tight, the BOJ expects wage settlements and inflation expectations to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory around or slightly above 2%, providing room for further cautious rate normalization as long as financial conditions remain supportive and the recovery is not derailed.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 22 to 23 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets on January 8 stabilized with a rebound driven by U.S. crude inventory draws and focus on limited near-term impacts from Venezuelan supply releases, despite earlier sell-offs to $55.76 lows; abundant global supply from U.S. shale, non-OPEC growth, and OPEC+ continue to pressure prices downward in a structurally balanced but oversupplied environment.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 09 January 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Mixed Again Ahead of Non-Farms – Dow up 0.5%

US equity markets were mixed overnight as investors awaited today’s key US employment data. The Dow Jones added 0.55% to close at 49,266, while the S&P 500 was essentially flat, edging up 0.01% to 6,921, while the Nasdaq lagged, falling 0.44% to 23,480. Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened, with the Dollar Index rising 0.18% to 98.85, and US Treasury yields climbed modestly, with the 2-year up 1.9 basis points to 3.488% and the 10-year up 2.0 basis points to 4.167%. Oil prices surged to two-week highs, reflecting renewed supply concerns from Russia, Iraq, and Iran, as well as ongoing attention on Venezuela. Brent crude jumped 4.67% to $62.78, while WTI rose 4.43% to $58.47. Gold also edged higher, gaining 0.47% to $4,477.65 amid rising geopolitical tensions and defensive flows.

Oil Volatility Set to Continue in the Coming Days and Weeks

Oil prices surged strongly overnight to hit two-week highs as volatility remained high in the market, with geopolitical factors pushing ‘Black Gold’ on big percentage moves on a daily basis at the moment. Developments with the situation in Venezuela are the main driver, but other factors helped to squeeze short positions in trading yesterday, which contributed to the size of the rally. A Russian oil tanker suffered a drone attack in the Black Sea, and Iraq approved plans to nationalise some operations, and these updates increased trader concerns. The market had been pricing in potential increases in supply in the coming months over the last couple of days, but yesterday saw those moves erased swiftly with the fresh updates, and now traders are preparing for more moves in the coming days and weeks. WTI is now sitting just under technical resistance near $59, while support is now back down near Wednesday’s lows at $55.76 a barrel.

First Non-Farm Friday of the Year Ahead for Traders

It is the first Non-Farm Friday of the year and a welcome return to ‘normal’ conditions after the US government shutdown disrupted usual data distribution over the last few months. Traders are bracing for today’s US labour market releases, including Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate, which are expected to drive volatility once New York opens. The headline NFP number is expected to come in around the +60k region, and traders are expecting to see a strong reaction to anything +/- 20k around that number. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.5%. Ahead of the data, trading is likely to remain subdued during the Asian and European sessions.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 09/01/26 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior +1.8%; revised to +2.0%

At the same time, we also have German trade balance data for November out as per below:

• Trade balance €13.1 billion vs €16.5 billion expected
• Prior €16.9 billion

That’s a solid beat for German industrial output, largely owing to a positive development to growth in the automotive industry (+7.8%). Increases in mechanical engineering (+3.2%) and in machine maintenance and assembly (+10.5%) also had a positive impact on the overall result. Conversely, the decline in energy production (-7.8%) had a negative effect.

If excluding energy, industrial production was even stronger as it rose by 2.1% on the month. That as the production of capital goods rose by 4.9%. Meanwhile, the production of intermediate goods (-0.8%) and consumer goods (-0.3%) both exhibited declines during the month.

As for declining trade surplus in November, that comes as exports were down 2.5% while imports were up 0.8% on the month after accounting for seasonal adjustments. Exports to the Eurozone countries amounted to €50.8 billion, which was down 3.9% in November.

In terms of foreign trade, most German exports in November went to the US once again. That totaled to €10.8 billion and down 4.2% compared to October. Meanwhile, exports to China grew by 3.4% on the month to €6.5 billion.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The inflation story might have stolen the spotlight for quite a while in the past two years but come what may, there’s nothing quite like the US non-farm payrolls data. And now with the focus on the Fed outlook shifting back to the labour market, the report today will once again draw plenty of eyes and attention from markets across the globe.

The November report was marred by data quality concerns following the longest US government shutdown in history. And it also came after the final FOMC meeting for 2025, so market players could easily brush that aside.

But today, this will be the first “normal” jobs report after the whole shutdown debacle. As such, expect there to be heavier scrutiny as market players will look to dissect the numbers to tie that to the Fed’s next move.

As a reminder, the next FOMC meeting will take place on 28 January. As things stand, traders are pricing in ~86% odds of there being no change to the Fed funds rate. The next full 25 bps rate cut is only pried in for June currently.

Circling back to the labour market report today, the Reuters estimate points to a 60k print for the headline non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate is expected to marginally ease to 4.5% while average hourly earnings is estimated to be up 0.3% month-on-month.

So, those are some of the more important numbers to watch out for.

That being said, just be mindful that there could still be some distortions to the report. I highlighted the potential for that yesterday here and I’ll put up more previews in the session ahead as we gear towards the main event for the day.

Earlier today, Eamonn posted this one from Goldman Sachs. So, you can just take a read first as we settle into European morning trade.

Besides the non-farm payrolls, there’s also the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs potentially coming up later in the day. The court is expected to issue rulings on Friday but, as is customary, has not said what case or cases will be acted upon. However, Trump’s tariffs will be one thing to watch in case it does draw mention.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• China avoids deflation in 2025 as inflation edges higher, easing still likely
• ECB vice-presidential hopeful Centeno flags “structural uncertainty” facing Europe
• Goldman says NFP unlikely to shift April Fed cut unless data sharply surprises
• China curbs rare-earth exports to Japan, Tokyo raises concerns with G7 and US
• China inflation hits near three-year high, but producer deflation signals weak demand
• China December 2025 CPI +0.8% y/y (vs. 0.9% expected, prior of 0.7%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0128 (vs. estimate at 6.9832)
• Sterling gains look premature as banks warn on UK-EU reset and weak UK growth
• Goldman sees lower but attractive 2026 equity returns: AI shift to adoption, credit capped
• Japan household spending rebounds while real wages still lag, complicates BOJ outlook
• DATA: Japan Household Spending November 2025: +2.9% y/y (vs expected -0.9%, prior -3.0%)
• Musk says China to dominate AI compute as Beijing plays down chips, touts power advantage
• Goldman survey shows investors turn sharply bearish on oil as supply glut builds
• HSBC lifts long-term gold forecasts but trims 2026 average, sees $5,000 upside risk
• investingLive Americas market wrap: Big US trade balance surprise boosts GDP estimates
• Trump proposes $200bn mortgage-bond buying plan to cut US home loan rates
• US equity close: Energy leads the way while memory chip names give back the big rally

At a glance:

• Trump floated direct MBS purchases, blurring fiscal and monetary lines

• USD firm near-term, USD/JPY pushed above 157.25

• Japan data strong on spending but real wages still falling

• China CPI improved, but deflation risks persist

• Markets cautious ahead of US NFP and tariff ruling

Late in the US afternoon, Donald Trump delivered a headline-grabbing moment, announcing he had instructed representatives to buy $200bn in mortgage-backed securities, effectively proposing a form of QE-by-presidential directive. Trump framed the move as an effort to narrow mortgage spreads and reduce borrowing costs in order to restore housing affordability.

While labelled as “QE” in market shorthand, buying MBS via government channels is more accurately fiscal policy, and the announcement reinforces expectations that policy will skew increasingly populist as the US moves deeper into the 2026 election cycle. With Trump’s approval ratings under pressure, further fiscally expansive initiatives look likely in coming months, a dynamic that should ultimately weigh on the US dollar.

But not today.

The USD remained firm, particularly against the yen, with USD/JPY pushing above 157.25. That move came despite stronger Japanese data showing household spending rose 2.9% y/y in November, far exceeding expectations, and surged 6.2% m/m. The data points to near-term resilience in consumption, though the broader picture remains fragile, with real wages still falling 2.8% y/y, continuing to erode purchasing power.

What appeared to weigh more heavily on the yen was renewed concern over China’s restriction of rare-earth and magnet exports to Japan, escalating a dispute linked to Taiwan-related comments. Japanese officials voiced strong concern and said the issue would be raised with G7 partners and US counterparts, adding a geopolitical risk premium to JPY trading.

Elsewhere, major FX pairs were relatively subdued as markets positioned cautiously ahead of US non-farm payrolls, due Friday at 13:30 GMT / 08:30 ET.

In China, inflation data showed CPI rose 0.8% y/y in December, the fastest pace since early 2023, lifting full-year (2025) inflation to 0.0% and allowing Beijing to avoid outright deflation. However, PPI fell 1.9% y/y, extending factory-gate deflation and reinforcing the view that underlying domestic demand remains weak, keeping expectations for further policy support alive.

On geopolitics, Trump told the New York Times that Taiwan is “up to” Xi Jinping, while adding he would be “very unhappy” if Beijing moved against the island, comments unlikely to calm regional nerves.

Asia-Pacific equities are mostly higher, though gains are capped as investors await US payrolls data and a looming US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) +1.3%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) +0.03%
• Shanghai
  Composite +0.3%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) -0.13%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• China CPI rose 0.8% y/y in December, a 34-month high

• Full-year CPI at 0.0%, avoiding outright deflation

• Food prices driving gains; pork drag easing

• Core inflation steady, property prices still deflationary

• Further monetary easing seen as likely

China narrowly avoided outright deflation in 2025, with consumer inflation ending the year at its highest level in nearly three years, though, analysts at ING caution that price pressures remain subdued and well below levels seen in other major economies.

China’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.8% year-on-year in December, the strongest reading since February 2023 and in line with market expectations. That brought full-year CPI inflation to 0.0%, allowing China to sidestep an annual deflation print, following several years of near-zero inflation.

The pickup in headline inflation continues to be driven largely by food prices, which rose 1.1% year-on-year, a 14-month high. Fresh vegetable and fruit prices recorded the sharpest gains, while pork prices — still deeply negative — have become less of a drag, with the year-on-year decline narrowing for a third consecutive month. Analysts expect the pork cycle to turn later this year, potentially adding modest upward pressure to food inflation.

By contrast, non-food inflation remained unchanged at 0.8%, reflecting a mixed underlying picture. Household appliance prices rose sharply as the effects of earlier trade-in incentives fed through, while services inflation — particularly tourism and healthcare — continued to outpace goods prices. However, deflation persisted in housing-related categories, with rents and residence costs still falling amid ongoing property-sector weakness.

Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, was steady at 1.2% for a third straight month, suggesting underlying price momentum remains limited.

At the producer level, PPI deflation eased to –1.9% year-on-year, marking a 16-month high but extending a deflationary streak now approaching three and a half years. The ING note argues that while the worst of China’s deflationary pressure may be behind it, any recovery in inflation is likely to be gradual.

Looking ahead, analysts forecast CPI inflation of around 0.9% in 2026, a modest improvement but still low by global standards. With inflation contained, they see scope for further monetary easing, including the possibility of a 10-basis-point rate cut in the first half of 2026.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

At a glance:

• Goldman expects ~70k payrolls, in line with consensus

• Two Fed cuts priced; first expected around late April

• 70k–100k seen as equity-friendly outcome

• Sub-50k risks growth scare; >125k may delay easing

• Volatility expectations remain subdued

Goldman Sachs said the upcoming US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report is unlikely to materially shift market expectations for Federal Reserve policy unless the data delivers a significant surprise, with current pricing already well anchored around a mid-year easing path.

In a note to clients, Goldman said it expects headline payroll growth of around 70,000 jobs, broadly in line with prevailing consensus. While informal market “whispers” point to a modest upside risk, the bank argued that an outcome close to expectations would reinforce the existing macro narrative rather than disrupt it.

Markets are currently pricing two full Fed rate cuts this year, with the first 25 basis-point reduction expected around late April. Goldman said it would take a “somewhat dramatic” upside or downside surprise in the labour data to meaningfully pull that timing forward or push it back.

From a market perspective, Goldman described a payrolls print in the 70,000–100,000 range as the most constructive outcome for equities, consistent with continued economic expansion without reigniting inflation concerns or threatening the easing cycle. Such a result would support the view that the US economy is slowing gradually rather than stalling abruptly.

By contrast, a sub-50,000 payrolls print would be interpreted as falling below the economy’s estimated break-even employment growth rate, potentially unsettling investors by raising concerns over a sharper growth slowdown. At the other extreme, Goldman said a result above 125,000 jobs could prompt markets to reassess the timing of the first Fed cut, pushing expectations back toward June.

Overall, the bank said it does not expect “fireworks” from the release, with positioning and volatility pricing suggesting limited appetite for large moves. Reflecting this, Goldman noted that the S&P 500 is implying a move of roughly 68 basis points through the session, pointing to relatively muted expectations around the data.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• China CPI rose 0.8% y/y, fastest since Feb 2023

• Monthly CPI beat expectations at +0.2%

• PPI fell 1.9% y/y, easing but still deflationary

• Core inflation steady at 1.2%

• Weak demand and property stress remain key drags

China’s consumer inflation accelerated in December to its fastest pace in nearly three years, while factory-gate prices remained in deflation, underscoring the persistent imbalance between improving headline prices and still-weak underlying demand.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed consumer prices rose 0.8% year-on-year, the strongest increase since February 2023 and slightly faster than November’s 0.7% gain. The result matched market expectations. On a month-on-month basis, CPI rose 0.2%, beating forecasts for a 0.1% increase and marking a clear rebound from November’s monthly decline.

Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 1.2% year-on-year, unchanged from the prior month, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain modest despite the pickup in headline inflation. Food prices rose 1.1% from a year earlier, while non-food prices increased 0.8%.

By contrast, producer prices fell 1.9% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected 2.0% decline and easing from November’s 2.2% fall. The data extend China’s factory-gate deflationary streak beyond three years, highlighting continued excess capacity and weak pricing power across the industrial sector.

More via CNBC round up:

Economists say the data point to fragile domestic demand, even as growth remains broadly on track. Macquarie expects China’s consumer inflation to remain flat through 2025, while producer-price deflation is forecast to deepen, potentially marking the longest deflationary stretch on record. The bank warns that additional policy easing, including lower mortgage rates and relaxed home-purchase rules, may still fall short of reversing the property downturn.

Meanwhile, Bank of America Global Research estimates China’s GDP growth softened to around 4.5% in the fourth quarter, from 4.8% previously, with fixed-asset investment contracting further even as industrial production benefited from a year-end manufacturing pickup.

Despite a recent rebound in factory activity, policymakers face mounting pressure to support consumption and stabilise the property sector, as falling corporate profits and renewed price competition continue to weigh on confidence.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• China restricts rare-earth and magnet exports to Japan

• Move linked to Japan PM’s Taiwan-related remarks

• Restrictions extend beyond defence sector

• Nomura estimates $17bn potential annual impact

• Japan raises issue with G7, Washington meetings planned

Flagged this earlier in the weeK

• China escalated tensions with Japan, bans exports of goods with potential military uses

Updating now.

China tightens rare-earth exports to Japan

China has begun restricting exports of rare earths and rare-earth magnets to Japan, escalating a diplomatic and economic dispute and again demonstrating its willingness to use critical minerals as geopolitical leverage, according to reporting by the Wall Street Journal (gated).

The measures are expected to weigh on Japanese firms supplying components to global chipmakers, automakers and defence contractors. The restrictions target so-called “heavy” rare earths and the high-performance magnets that contain them — materials that are scarce, costly and difficult to substitute.

The Journal reported that the move is retaliation for remarks made late last year by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who suggested Japan could become involved in a potential conflict over Taiwan. Beijing has repeatedly pledged to bring Taiwan under its control, by force if necessary.

According to people familiar with the matter, China has effectively halted the review of export licence applications to Japan, with the restrictions extending across multiple industries rather than being limited to defence-related firms. Earlier this week, Beijing also announced a broader ban on exports of “dual-use” goods with potential military applications to Japan.

If maintained, the rare-earth curbs could inflict around $17 billion in economic losses over a year, according to estimates from the Nomura Research Institute. The action follows a similar move against US companies last year, underscoring China’s dominance in critical minerals and its readiness to weaponise supply chains in response to geopolitical disputes.

Japan responds, seeks coordination

Japanese officials responded by urging China to ensure smooth trade flows and signalling that the issue will be raised with international partners. Finance Minister Minoru Katayama said Tokyo is “very concerned” about China’s export controls and plans to explain Japan’s position during meetings in Washington next week.

Katayama said G7 finance ministers have been sharing strong concerns about China’s practices around rare earths and confirmed he will discuss supply-chain resilience with counterparts during talks scheduled for January 11–14. He declined to comment on the full details of the meetings, noting the host has yet to announce participating countries.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.