DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 98.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.53
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1618

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1471

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1726

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 176.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 174.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 177.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 200% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8693

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8657
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8708
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3392

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3269
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3513
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 202.86

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 201.04
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 204.86
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.8007

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7923
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 0.8104
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 150.91

Supporting reasons: This level is identified as a pullback support and a prior breakout zone. After a strong bullish impulse above this area, a retest could invite renewed buying interest.

1st support: 149.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 153.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance.This  is a significant resistance that could cap further upward movement and coincide with profit-taking zones for bullish positions

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                                

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce off toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.4012

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 1.3919

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4156

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6531

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap zone where any brief bullish recovery could find resistance before resuming the bearish trend.

1st support: 0.6569

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6585

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, this level could cap upside potential in the current bearish structure.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5762

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5698

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5803

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 46,182.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 45,239.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 46,854.31

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,511.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 24,080.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,771.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 6,697.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 6,520.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,760.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 117,689.57

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance  that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement,, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 111,917.12

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 120,968.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,372.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance  that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,049.67

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,642.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 60.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 58.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 63.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,055.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 3,953.04
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,129.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistancethat is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Tuesday 14th October 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 14 October 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Major U.S. equities reversed Friday’s rout on Trump’s more conciliatory China statements. ​Gold and silver soared to new highs on safe-haven flows, while oil stayed range-bound.​ Semiconductor and AI-focused stocks outperformed on demand optimism and easing trade fears.​ Key U.S. economic data remained delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, keeping volatility elevated.​The U.S. dollar strengthened slightly against other major currencies, while fixed income stayed muted with bond markets closed.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Traders should expect heightened volatility in Asian markets driven by ongoing US-China trade friction and the potential for major market-moving statements from central bank leaders (RBA, Fed, BOE). Gold and safe-haven assets are in favor, while Asian equities remain under pressure. Key macroeconomic releases and speeches will set the tone for Asia-Pacific FX pairs and broader risk sentiment.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Fed Chair Powell speaks (4:20 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar starts with moderate strength, supported by the anticipation of Powell’s speech and temporarily abated trade tensions. The outlook for the USD is shaped by the potential continuation of Fed rate cuts, sticky inflation, and nervous market sentiment, given government shutdown delays and unresolved trade issues with China. Near-term volatility is expected, with the Fed’s forward guidance and geopolitical headlines dictating major moves for the dollar across global markets.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 16–17, 2025, meeting, marking the first policy rate adjustment since December 2024 after five consecutive holds.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objective of achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, acknowledging recent labor market softening and continued tariff-driven price pressures.
• Policymakers expressed elevated concern about downside risks to growth, citing a stalling labor market, modest job creation, and an unemployment rate drifting up toward 4.4%. At the same time, inflation remains above target, with CPI at 3.2% and core inflation at 3.1% as of August 2025; higher energy and food prices, largely attributable to tariffs, continue to weigh on headline measures.
• Although economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter, the growth outlook has weakened. Q3 GDP growth is estimated near 1.0% (annualized), with full-year 2025 GDP growth guidance revised to 1.2%, reflecting slowing household consumption and tighter financial conditions.
• In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% for the year, with headline PCE inflation revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2025. The Committee anticipates core PCE inflation to remain stubborn, requiring sustained vigilance and a flexible approach to risk management.
• The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach and openness to further adjustments should employment or inflation deviate meaningfully from current forecasts. Several members dissented, either advocating a larger 50-basis-point cut or preferring no adjustment at this meeting, revealing heightened divergence within the Committee.
• Balance sheet reduction continues at a measured pace. The monthly Treasury redemption cap remains at $5B and the agency MBS cap at $35B, as the Board aims to support orderly market conditions in the face of evolving global and domestic uncertainty.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Fed Chair Powell speaks (4:20 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s breakthrough above $4,100 per ounce represents a historic milestone driven by a confluence of factors, including renewed US-China trade tensions, Federal Reserve dovish expectations, record ETF inflows, and sustained central bank buying. While technical indicators suggest potential for near-term consolidation, the fundamental backdrop remains supportive with multiple analysts forecasting continued gains toward $5,000 per ounce by 2026. Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Tuesday will be closely watched for additional policy guidance that could influence gold’s next directional move.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Monetary policy meeting minutes (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar staged a notable recovery, rising 0.7% to 65.14 US cents as US-China trade tensions eased following more conciliatory rhetoric from the Trump administration. However, the currency remains under pressure from domestic factors, including rising inflation expectations (4.8% in October), deteriorating consumer confidence (92.1, a six-month low), and the RBA’s increasingly hawkish stance on monetary policy.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at its October meeting on 29–30 September 2025, marking a second consecutive pause after August’s 25 basis point cut. The move affirms the Bank’s data-dependent approach as inflation trends within the target range.
• Inflation indicators remained stable through September, with headline CPI likely anchoring near 2.2%—comfortably within the 2–3% band. Insurance and housing costs remain sticky but are increasingly offset by moderation in discretionary goods.
• Trimmed mean inflation is estimated at around 2.8%, signaling underlying pressures remain contained. The Board continues to flag food and energy price volatility as short-term risks, though the broader disinflation narrative holds.
• Global conditions remain a source of uncertainty. U.S. policy expectations and uneven growth in China continue to weigh on commodities, even as trade disruptions have eased marginally since mid-year.
• Domestic growth shows resilience in the housing and services sectors, though manufacturing remains subdued. Household incomes have stabilized, but consumption remains only modest, capped by high borrowing costs.
• The labor market maintains relative tightness, though job growth has slowed notably since the first half of the year. Underutilization has ticked higher, but overall employment conditions remain supportive.
• Wage growth is plateauing, reflecting softer labor demand. Weak productivity continues to keep unit labor costs elevated, underscoring a medium-term concern highlighted repeatedly by the RBA.
• Household consumption prospects remain fragile. The combination of high rents and weak discretionary appetite suggests risks of a consumer-led slowdown in Q4 if confidence fails to rebound.
• The Board reiterated that subdued household spending poses risks to business sentiment and may dampen investment and job creation in the coming quarters.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive. The RBA balanced confidence in inflation progress with caution around global and domestic demand risks, keeping further adjustments conditional on incoming data.
• The Bank reaffirmed its dual commitment to price stability and full employment, noting its readiness to act should conditions shift markedly.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar remains under significant pressure as markets continue to digest the implications of the RBNZ’s aggressive 50 basis point rate cut from the previous week. Trading near six-month lows around 0.5730-0.5740 against the US Dollar, the currency faces headwinds from both dovish monetary policy expectations and underlying economic weakness. With markets pricing in further rate cuts and key economic data releases scheduled throughout the week, the NZD’s recovery prospects remain limited in the near term.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.00% on 20 August 2025, marking a three-year low and continuing the easing cycle after July’s pause. The vote was split 4-2, with two members advocating a 50-basis-point cut, highlighting diverging views within the Committee.
• Policymakers indicated that significant uncertainty and a stalling economic recovery prompted this move, leaving the door open for further rate cuts later in the year, with a possible trough around 2.5% by December.
• Annual consumer price index inflation rose to 2.7% in the June quarter and is expected to reach 3% for the September quarter—at the upper end of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band—but medium-term expectations remain anchored near the 2% midpoint.
• Despite the near-term uptick, headline inflation is projected to return toward 2% by mid-2026, as tradables inflation pressures ease and significant spare capacity continues to dampen domestic price momentum.
• Domestic financial conditions are broadly aligning with MPC expectations, as lower wholesale rates have translated into reduced borrowing costs for households. However, declining consumption and investment demand, higher unemployment, and subdued wage growth reflect ongoing economic slack.
• GDP growth stalled in the second quarter of 2025, contrasting with earlier projections. High-frequency indicators point to continued weakness driven by rising prices for essentials, weakening household savings, and constrained business lending.
• The MPC cautioned that ongoing global tariff uncertainties and policy shifts, especially recent changes in US trade regulations, could amplify market volatility and present both upside and downside risks to New Zealand’s recovery.
• Subject to medium-term inflation pressures continuing to ease as projected, the MPC signaled scope for further OCR cuts, possibly down to 2.5% by year-end, consistent with the latest Monetary Policy Statement outlook.
• The next meeting is on 22 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen amid unprecedented political uncertainty. The collapse of the LDP-Komeito coalition has complicated Takaichi’s path to the premiership and raised questions about Japan’s economic policy direction. While the yen remains under pressure at multi-month lows around 152 per dollar, verbal intervention warnings from Japanese authorities suggest growing concern about the currency’s rapid decline. The upcoming BOJ meeting on October 29-30 will be crucial for determining the monetary policy path, with markets significantly reducing expectations for an October rate hike.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 17 September, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
• The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
• The BOJ will continue its gradual reduction of monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). The scheduled amount of long-term government bond purchases remains unchanged from the prior decision, with a quarterly reduction pace of about ¥400 billion through March 2026 and about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026 onward, aiming for a purchase level near ¥2 trillion in January to March 2027.
• Japan’s economy continues to show a moderate recovery, with household consumption supported by rising incomes, although corporate activity has softened somewhat. Overseas economies remain on a moderate growth path, with the impact of global trade policies still weighing on Japan’s export and industrial production outlook.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices (excluding fresh food) remains in the mid-3% range. Inflationary pressures remain broad-based, with persistent cost-push factors in food and energy, alongside solid wage pass-through. However, input cost pressures from past import surges are showing early signs of easing.
• Short-term inflation momentum may moderate as cost-push effects diminish, though rent increases and service-related price gains tied to labor shortages are likely to provide support. Inflation expectations among firms and households continue a gradual upward drift.
• Looking ahead, the economy is projected to grow at a slower-than-trend pace in the near term due to external demand softness and cautious corporate investment plans. However, accommodative financial conditions and steady increases in real labor income are expected to underpin domestic demand.
• In the medium term, as overseas economies recover and global trade stabilizes, Japan’s growth potential is likely to improve. With persistent labor market tightness and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations, core inflation is projected to remain on a gradual upward trend, converging toward the 2% price stability target in the latter half of the projection horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 30 to 31 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API crude oil stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are rebounding modestly from multi-month lows. The outlook remains volatile, with price recovery hinging heavily on US–China trade negotiations, the pace of OPEC+ supply growth, and the resolution of localized supply issues in major consuming regions. Short-term price movements are particularly sensitive to any signals of trade de-escalation or fresh disruptions, and the broader trend remains capped by potential oversupply and macroeconomic uncertainty. The market is searching for a catalyst amid a cautious and fluid environment.​

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 14 October 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 14 October 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
This Asia session was dominated by risk-off sentiment due to escalating US-China trade tensions and new policy threats, driving major declines in Asian equities and commodity gains, while traditional safe havens (JPY, CHF, and gold) attracted flows. Australian and Chinese assets saw direct currency and index impact, setting the tone for global trading ahead of critical macro and earnings releases.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
The main data releases for today are supportive for both GBP and EUR, with wage and jobless data in the UK painting a steady to slightly optimistic picture, and German sentiment improving.​​U.S. markets are sensitive to central bank speeches and ongoing trade tensions, as recent recoveries in tech and materials indicate market optimism after previous volatility.​China’s jump in new loans could reflect global risk appetite, boosting commodities and Asian-linked currencies.​​The overarching theme is cautious optimism: persistent inflation and global trade tensions are acting as headwinds, but stronger wage figures, positive sentiment, and new loan growth could support an incremental risk-on mood as sessions get underway.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Fed Chair Powell speaks (4:20 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Dollar enters Tuesday with heightened uncertainty, anticipation around Powell’s address, and ongoing focus on Fed rate policy. Currency movements will hinge significantly on Powell’s remarks and subsequent Fed commentary, as markets weigh persistent inflation pressures against signs of labor market softening and global interest rate dynamics.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 16–17, 2025, meeting, marking the first policy rate adjustment since December 2024 after five consecutive holds.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objective of achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, acknowledging recent labor market softening and continued tariff-driven price pressures.
• Policymakers expressed elevated concern about downside risks to growth, citing a stalling labor market, modest job creation, and an unemployment rate drifting up toward 4.4%. At the same time, inflation remains above target, with CPI at 3.2% and core inflation at 3.1% as of August 2025; higher energy and food prices, largely attributable to tariffs, continue to weigh on headline measures.
• Although economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter, the growth outlook has weakened. Q3 GDP growth is estimated near 1.0% (annualized), with full-year 2025 GDP growth guidance revised to 1.2%, reflecting slowing household consumption and tighter financial conditions.
• In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% for the year, with headline PCE inflation revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2025. The Committee anticipates core PCE inflation to remain stubborn, requiring sustained vigilance and a flexible approach to risk management.
• The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach and openness to further adjustments should employment or inflation deviate meaningfully from current forecasts. Several members dissented, either advocating a larger 50-basis-point cut or preferring no adjustment at this meeting, revealing heightened divergence within the Committee.
• Balance sheet reduction continues at a measured pace. The monthly Treasury redemption cap remains at $5B and the agency MBS cap at $35B, as the Board aims to support orderly market conditions in the face of evolving global and domestic uncertainty
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Fed Chair Powell speaks (4:20 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices surged to new record highs above $4,100 per ounce on Monday, October 13, 2025, marking another historic milestone for the metal amid intense geopolitical and economic uncertainty. This fresh rally was largely sparked by renewed US-China trade tensions, safe-haven demand, continued expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and investor anxiety fueled by the ongoing US government shutdown.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

German ZEW economic sentiment (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro is characterized by marginal improvement in sentiment indicators, but with continued caution due to mixed macroeconomic signals and ongoing external uncertainties. Eurozone-wide investor sentiment, as measured by the ZEW Index, also registered a small uptick (17.6 from 17.2 last month), signaling some stabilization in expectations despite industry headwinds and lingering inflation risks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council kept the three key ECB interest rates unchanged at its meeting on September 11, 2025. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. These levels have been maintained after the cuts earlier in 2025, reflecting the Council’s confidence that the current stance is consistent with the price stability mandate.
• Evidence that inflation is running close to the ECB’s medium-term target of 2% supported the decision to hold rates steady. Domestic price pressures are easing as wage growth continues to moderate, and financing conditions remain accommodative. Policymakers reaffirmed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to further policy moves, with no pre-commitment to a predetermined path amid ongoing global and domestic risks.
• Eurosystem staff projections foresee headline inflation averaging 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% in 2027. The 2025 and 2026 forecasts reflect a downward revision, primarily on lower energy costs and exchange rate effects, even as food inflation remains persistent. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) is expected at 2.0% for 2026 and 2027, with only minor changes since prior rounds.
• Real GDP growth in the euro area is projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. A robust first quarter—partly due to firms accelerating exports ahead of anticipated tariff hikes—cushioned a weaker outlook for the remainder of 2025. While business investment continues to face uncertainty from ongoing global trade disputes, especially with the US, government investment and infrastructure spending are expected to provide some support to the outlook.
• Rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market boost household spending. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• Rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market boost household spending. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• All future interest rate decisions will continue to be guided by the integrated assessment of economic and financial data, the inflation outlook, and underlying inflation dynamics, and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission—without any pre-commitment to a specific future rate path.
• The ECB’s Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) portfolios are declining predictably, as maturities have ceased to be reinvested. Balance-sheet normalization continues in line with the ECB’s previously communicated schedule.
• The next meeting is on 29 to 30 October 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc is experiencing slight depreciation versus the US dollar amidst easing geopolitical tensions, persistent trade uncertainty, and a landmark US tariff policy affecting Swiss industries. Safe-haven flows remain strong, but the SNB has shown little inclination to intervene, supporting current rates and allowing CHF to seek its value via market dynamics. The outlook remains stable, with gradual appreciation expected and external factors (like US tariffs and SNB commentary) being key drivers for volatility.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Average Earnings Index 3m/y (6:00 am GMT)

Claimant Count Change (6:00 am GMT)

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (5:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Today, the Pound faces headwinds from a rebounding US dollar and market concerns about the fiscal sustainability of the UK economy. With wage growth stable and jobless claims declining, the immediate focus will shift to BoE commentary and the broader impact of potential upcoming tax policies on growth and inflation. Traders are advised to watch for volatility around BoE speeches and US data releases later in the day.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted on 18 September 2025 by a majority (expected split likely 7–2 or 6–3) to hold the Bank Rate steady at 4.00%, following the August rate cut. Most members cited persistent inflation and mixed indicators on growth and employment, while a minority favored further easing due to the cooling labor market and subdued GDP growth.
• The Committee decided to decrease the pace of quantitative tightening, planning to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases by £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, instead of the prior £100 billion pace, with the gilt balance now standing at nearly £558 billion. This reflects increased volatility in bond markets and a shift to a more gradual approach.
• Headline inflation rose unexpectedly to 3.8% in July and is projected at 4% for September, above the Bank’s 2% target. Price pressures are driven by regulated energy costs and ongoing food price increases. While previous disinflation has been substantial, core inflation remains elevated and sticky.
• The MPC expects headline inflation to remain above target through Q4, with a resumption of the downward trend projected for early 2026 as energy and regulated price pressures abate. The Committee remains watchful for signs of persistent inflation despite previous policy tightening.
• UK GDP growth is stagnant, with business and consumer activity subdued. Recent labor market data show rising unemployment rates (now at 4.7%) and stabilizing wage growth (holding near 5%), indicating slack but continued wage price pressure. The Committee remains cautious amid lackluster demand and soft survey sentiment.
• Pay growth and employment indicators have moderated further, alongside confirmation from business surveys that pay settlements are slowing. The Committee expects wage growth to decelerate significantly through Q4 and the rest of 2025.
• Global uncertainty persists due to volatile energy prices, supply chain disruptions linked to Middle East conflicts, and renewed trade tensions. The MPC remains vigilant in tracking transmission of external cost/wage shocks to UK inflation.
• Risks to inflation are considered two-sided. While subdued domestic growth and softening labor activity suggest scope for easing, persistent inflation requires caution. The MPC anticipates a slow, gradual reduction path in rates, continuing its data-dependent approach with careful adjustment as warranted by economic developments.
• The Committee’s bias remains toward maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance until firmer evidence emerges that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target. All future decisions will remain highly data dependent, with a strong emphasis on evolving demand, inflation expectations, costs, and labor market conditions.
• The next meeting is on 6 November 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar remains under pressure just below 1.40 per USD, rebounding on strong job growth but capped by declining oil prices, with the market cautiously optimistic about its prospects heading into the fourth quarter. The CAD’s gains have been capped by falling oil prices and global market volatility, and the USD/CAD exchange rate recently touched a six-month high above 1.40. Most analysts expect further consolidation for the Canadian Dollar, with a possibility of testing resistance at 1.4085 before any meaningful decline​. 

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council cited continued U.S. tariff volatility and slow progress on trade negotiations as major contributors to ongoing uncertainty. While headline tariffs have not escalated further, the unpredictability of U.S. policy remains a significant risk for Canadian exports and business confidence.
• Uncertainty about U.S. trade policy and recurring tariff threats continued to weigh on growth prospects. The Bank flagged downside risks to the export sector, with survey data indicating ongoing hesitancy among manufacturers and exporters.
• After modest growth in Q1, Canada’s economy slipped into contraction, with GDP shrinking by 0.8% in Q2 and forecast to decrease again by 0.8% in Q3. Economic weakness has been most pronounced in manufacturing and goods-producing sectors affected by trade frictions and softer U.S. demand.
• Early estimates show that growth stabilized in September but remained well below the Bank’s 2% forecast for Q4. Manufacturing output has improved slightly—supported by a modest rebound in petroleum and mining activity—while consumer spending and retail sales were largely flat.
• Consumer spending remained subdued as households continued to limit discretionary purchases amid uncertainty and a slower job market. Housing activity stayed weak, despite earlier government efforts to boost affordability and modest gains in some real estate segments.
• Headline CPI inflation edged up to 1.9% in August, undershooting economist expectations but still showing emerging pressures from shelter and imported goods costs. Core inflation metrics were mixed, though price growth remains just below the Bank’s 2% target.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed its cautious approach, emphasizing that while further rate cuts are possible, the pace will hinge on the path of U.S. tariffs, domestic inflation dynamics, and signs of a sustainable recovery. The Bank remains vigilant against the risk of inflation falling below target in the face of economic slack.
• The next meeting is on 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API crude oil stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices on Tuesday showed modest gains of approximately 0.3% as US-China trade tensions showed signs of easing, with WTI trading near $59.67/barrel and Brent at $63.50/barrel. However, prices remain down significantly over the past month and year amid a confluence of bearish factors: the elimination of Middle East geopolitical risk premiums following the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, an expanding supply glut with OPEC+ adding 630,000 bpd in September, building global inventories projected to average 2.6 million bpd in Q4 2025, record US production exceeding 13.6 million bpd, and weakening demand from China where oil consumption growth has slowed dramatically.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 14 October 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down -1.90%, Shanghai Composite up 0.21%, Hang Seng down -0.35% ASX up 0.15%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,178.40 (1.10%), Silver at $52.200 (3.51%), Brent Oil at $63.54 (0.35%), WTI Oil at $59.71 (0.37%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.052, UK 10-year yield at 4.6620, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6301

News & Data:

• (EUR) German WPI m/m  0.2%  to 0.2% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher on Tuesday, tracking strong overnight gains on Wall Street amid renewed optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts despite the ongoing government shutdown and intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflict. Asian markets had ended mostly lower on Monday.

U.S. President Donald Trump struck a softer tone on social media after previously threatening higher tariffs on China, easing trade war worries. “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine,” Trump said, expressing willingness to cooperate with Beijing.

With limited official data available, the U.S. Federal Reserve is relying on private indicators ahead of its month-end policy meeting. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, investors see a 96.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.12% to 8,893.50, supported by mining and energy stocks. BHP and Rio Tinto rose nearly 2% each, while gold miners like Northern Star and Genesis Minerals advanced strongly. However, banks and tech shares remained weak.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.18% to 47,520.57, with losses across exporters, banks, and tech stocks. SoftBank dropped over 4%, while Sumitomo Metal Mining and Ryohin Keikaku surged.

Elsewhere, Taiwan led regional gains, up 1.4%, while China, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, and Indonesia traded modestly higher.

On Wall Street, the Nasdaq rose 2.2%, the S&P 500 gained 1.6%, and the Dow added 1.3%, rebounding from Friday’s losses. Crude oil prices also advanced over 1%, lifted by escalating geopolitical tensions.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Building Permits m/m
• 04:20 PM GMT – USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 05:00 PM GMT – GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

The post Tuesday 14th October 2025: Asian Markets Rise on Trade Optimism and Rate Cut Expectations first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The report says that Chinese rare earth magnet companies are facing a tougher time in trying to seek export license applications since September already. That is even before Beijing’s announcement last week here.

One of the sources noted that the review process is made much lengthier, in what looks to be a bid by China to further tighten its grip on products essential for use in military and commercial technology. The source also noted that applications are now being returned more often with requests for “additional information”.

Meanwhile, the approval process is also taking longer albeit still within the supposed 45 business days deadline set out by the commerce ministry. However, the overall feeling is that the process has moved back a step similar to how it was in April when Beijing really toughened its stance on rare earth exports to push the US into conceding on tariffs.

As a reminder, this is one of China’s biggest ace card in dealing with the US and it doesn’t look like they are being bashful about using it.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• China urges the US to correct mistakes
• US moves affect global supply chain stability

Such comments are not new. The Chinese continue to repeat that they don’t want to escalate things and resolve the issues via dialogue.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Gold is now dropping to just under $4,100 with the high earlier in the day touching $4,179 while silver is down over 2% on the day to near $51 after having hit a high of $53.60 earlier. It’s a quick and steep drop for both precious metals in the past hour or so with not too much of a catalyst so to speak.

The broader market mood remains on the defensive, so I’d be more inclined to lean towards profit-taking activity here. And even with the selloff above, it’s not really hurting the precious metals all too much. Both are still up roughly 2% on the week, at least for now. However, the drop perhaps does put some attention to the near-term charts though there is still some distance from testing the key hourly moving averages for both.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior 4.7%
• Employment change 91k vs 123k expected
• Prior 232k
• Average weekly earnings +5.0% vs +4.7% 3m/y expected
• Prior +4.7%; revised to +4.8%
• Average weekly earnings ex bonus +4.7% vs +4.7% 3m/y expected
• Prior +4.8%
• September payrolls change -10k
• Prior -8k; revised to 10k

It’s a mixed report with the jobless rate ticking higher with employment change coming in softer than expected. Meanwhile, wage pressures are seen stronger while the payrolls figure once again slumped in September. On the latter, there is some good news in a positive revision to the August number at least.

But overall, the job figures point to some further softening in the labour market. And while wage pressures might seem to stand out at first glance, they were less pronounced in real terms (after accounting for inflation).

Total pay (in real terms) was seen at +0.8% in the three months to August (up from +0.6%) while regular pay (in real terms) actually fell to +0.6% in the three months to August (down from +0.7%).

All in all, it’s not something that will get the BOE jumping to react to as the central bank continues to bide its time before the next move.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior +2.2%
• HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.1%

The standout reading here is that core annual inflation is seen nudging higher to 2.8%, up from 2.5% in August. And that will keep the ECB on their toes in deciding the next rate cut as price pressures remain stubborn in Europe’s largest economy.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Asian stocks are not enjoying a good outing today, with the Nikkei down over 2% in falling back below the 47,000 mark. Meanwhile, Chinese indices have also fallen back to eat into the opening gap higher and are now down on the day. The CSI 300 is down 0.6% with the Shanghai Composite down 0.3% after the lunch break.

This comes as we start to see US futures also dip lower, with S&P 500 futures now down by 0.4% on the day. And in the major currencies space, the Japanese yen is seen up across the board with the dollar holding slightly lower at the balance. USD/JPY is down 0.2% to 151.90 while commodity currencies are weighed down with AUD/USD lower by 0.6% to 0.6475 currently.

US-China trade tensions remain the key driver at the moment. And after the long weekend in the US yesterday, we’re now returning to see some of the hopeful optimism get dashed. If anything, it’s a sign that there is still much caution up in the air.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The US stock market was open yesterday but the bond market was closed. And with it being a major holiday, it definitely sapped a lot of the liquidity conditions and market appetite. So, think of today as being the return from the long weekend and where the week officially begins.

Wall Street kept active with US indices bouncing back a fair bit after the Friday drop. US-China trade tensions remain the key driver at the moment, with investors pretty much settled on how they think the Fed will move at the end of this month.

The S&P 500 clawed back losses with 1.6% gains as tech shares led the way. The Dow posted gains of 1.3% with the Nasdaq bouncing back with gains of 2.2%. The optimism isn’t quite flowing through to the new day though, with US futures looking flattish at the moment. If anything, it signals that there is still some caution up in the air among market players.

Sure, there’s still roughly three weeks for the US and China to make nice. And for now, it seems like the Trump and Xi meeting is back on at least. But as always, headline risks remain key and things can change up at any point in the coming weeks. So, just be wary of any escalation or TACO affirmation.

As for today, US traders might be back in force after the long weekend but they will not be greeted with much of anything on the economic calendar. With the US government shutdown still ongoing, this week will feature no major data releases from the US again besides those from private surveys. Oh, what fun.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It feels like we’re beating a dead horse almost every day now. After a tentative pause before the highs on Friday, both gold and silver are off to the races this week in scaling to fresh record highs. Both are up 1.1% on the day with the former seen at $4,156 while the latter is up to $52.87 currently. On the month itself, gold is trading up nearly 8% while silver is up over 13% in October thus far.

From a seasonal perspective, October tends to be a decent month for precious metals but nothing suggestive of the kind of stirring gains from December to January typically.

That said, it wasn’t the case last year with gold prices being bookended by monthly declines in both January and December 2024. Instead, gold went on a tear with nine straight monthly gains between February to October 2024.

The precious metal is on a somewhat similar run this year, gaining in 8 out of the past 9 months and looking for another month of gains in October. November seems to be a trickier period to navigate though, with prices having fallen in 9 out of the last 13 November months. The average monthly performance for November in that stretch is -1.7%.

As for silver, it put on a more mixed performance last year. But the gains this year is looking more consistent, mostly in mimicking gold’s performance. Interestingly though, silver has been bid in each of the past six October months stretching back to 2019. And the precious metal looks poised to make it seven in a row this year now.

However, November promises to be a tricky period for silver. It has posted a decline in 10 out of the last 12 November months – averaging a monthly performance of -2.3%.

Taking the seasonal factors into account, are we poised for a strong October before some profit-taking and cooling in November? Well, that is just something to consider when having to take into account all the other factors in play at the moment.

Here’s a look at the seasonal pattern for both precious metals over the past 15 years:

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.