Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.63%, Shanghai Composite up 0.29%, Hang Seng down 1.05% ASX up 0.38%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,487.35 (-0.19%), Silver at $80.507 (-0.65%), Brent Oil at $60.07 (-1.02%), WTI Oil at $56.32 (-1.42%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.162, UK 10-year yield at 4.4820, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8466

News & Data:

• (USD) Final Services PMI  52.5 to 52.9 expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets traded mixed on Wednesday, taking broadly positive cues from Wall Street overnight but remaining cautious amid rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, as well as escalating strains between China and Japan over Taiwan. Investors are also awaiting several key U.S. economic reports due later this week. Asian markets had closed mostly higher on Tuesday.

Attention is focused on Friday’s U.S. monthly jobs report, which could shape expectations for interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this month. While the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at its January meeting, markets continue to price in at least one quarter-point rate cut in the coming months.

Australian shares rebounded strongly, with the S&P/ASX 200 climbing above 8,700, supported by gains in gold miners and technology stocks, despite weakness in energy and financial shares. Major miners BHP Group and Rio Tinto advanced, while oil stocks declined. Technology shares were mostly higher, and gold miners posted solid gains. Several individual stocks surged on contract wins, patent approvals, and upbeat results.

In economic data, Australia’s annual inflation eased to 3.4 percent in November, its lowest level since August, while building permits rose sharply, beating expectations. The Australian dollar traded around $0.673.

Japan’s stock market declined, reversing gains from earlier sessions, led by losses in exporters and technology stocks. Economic data showed Japan’s services sector continued to expand in December, though at a slower pace.

Elsewhere in Asia, markets were mixed, while Wall Street and major European indices closed higher overnight. Crude oil prices fell as investors assessed the impact of recent U.S. military action in Venezuela.

Upcoming Events:

• 03:00 PM GMT – USD ISM Services PMI
• 03:00 PM GMT – USD JOLTS Job Openings

The post Wednesday 7th January 2026: Asian Markets Trade Mixed as Investors Weigh Geopolitical Risks and Key U.S. Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 98.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 98.11

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.46
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1714

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1651

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1762

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 183.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 181.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 184.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8707

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8642
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8746
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3474

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3421
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3610
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 211.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 21.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 212.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7899

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7860
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7964
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 156.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 156.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 157.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                     

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3746

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3684

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3890

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6698

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.6673

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6743

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5792

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5743

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5849

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 48,844.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 48,371.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 49,703.45

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 24,687.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 24,203.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,501.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,933.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,823.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,018.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 94,626.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 90,634.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 98,901.37

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 3,201.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 3,051.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,403.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 56.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 55.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 58.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,495.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,404.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,549.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 7th January 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• “Only time will tell” how long direct oversight is demanded on Venezuela
• We will rebuild it in a very profitable way
• The oil will take a while; but we’re going to be using oil, and we’re going to be taking oil
• We’re getting oil prices down, and we’re going to be giving money to Venezuela, which they desperately need
• (when asked how long US might oversee Venezuela; 6 months? A year?) “I would say much longer”

It’s funny how Polymarket has the galls to say that this isn’t an invasion. But yeah, that’s another controversial take that has been happening on the sidelines of what we’re seeing transpire on the geopolitical stage. As you would expect with any major powerhouse that takes ownership of something, they find it hard to let go. And this will be one of those things that we will see here with Venezuela.

As mentioned before, the country is a hotbed for natural resources – not just oil. But for now, that’s the main talking point and Trump wants to squeeze what he can to allow for the US to benefit from that amid this “non-invasion”.

He spoke earlier in the day in wanting to drive oil prices back down to $50. So we’ll see about that. But as the situation continues to develop, Russia and China will be the ones in watch to see how they might respond.

If Venezuela blocks the US access to oil and/or if Russia and China will still have presence, Trump didn’t rule out sending more military personnel to deal with the situation. His response was:

“I can’t tell you that. I really wouldn’t want to tell you that, but they’re treating us with great respect. As you know, we’re getting along very well with the administration that is there right now. They’re giving us everything that we feel is necessary.”

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

US Stocks Mixed Ahead of Employment Data – Dow down 0.9%

US equity markets delivered a mixed performance overnight as investors positioned cautiously ahead of key US employment data due later in the week. The Dow Jones slipped 0.94% to close at 48,996, retreating from record highs, while the S&P 500 eased 0.34% to 6,920. In contrast, technology stocks provided modest support, with the Nasdaq edging 0.16% higher to finish at 23,584. The US dollar firmed slightly against the major currencies, with the DXY rising 0.15% to 98.73. US Treasury yields were mixed across the curve, as the 2-year yield ticked 0.6 basis points higher to 3.470%, while the 10-year yield fell 2.5 basis points to 4.148%. Commodity markets remained under pressure, with oil prices extending recent declines amid ongoing supply concerns. Brent crude fell 0.58% to $60.35 a barrel, while WTI dropped a sharper 1.5% to $56.36. Gold also eased as profit-taking emerged near record levels, slipping 0.85% to $4,456.47 an ounce after its recent strong rally.

Non-Farms in Focus for FX Traders in Coming Sessions

There is no doubt that, for FX markets, the upcoming Non-Farms payrolls data release on Friday will be the premier event of the week and possibly even the month. The Fed have made no secret of their increased focus on the US job market over the past few months, and the overall market is looking for more weakness to lock in interest rates in the coming months. Currently, the market is pricing in just an 11% chance of another 25-basis-point cut at the January meeting; however, a sharp drop in the data on Friday could see these odds increase dramatically and see the dollar drop into fresh ranges on the majors. Conversely, anything much higher than the expected 60k print would push rate-cut expectations further into 2026 and see the greenback rally strongly. Whatever happens, FX traders are expecting moves in the major currencies around the data release.

Calm Calendar Day Ahead of Tomorrow’s Non-Farms

It is a relatively quiet day on the macroeconomic calendar today ahead of tomorrow’s key US employment numbers. The Asian session is set to open slightly on the back foot today after a mixed day on Wall Street, and with little on the event calendar, traders are expecting relatively quiet trading conditions unless anything pops up on the geopolitical front. European session focus will fall on Swiss inflation data, with CPI figures due out early in the piece. Market expectation is for a 0% move in the month-on-month data, and anything off this should see moves in the franc, especially given that the SNB is already on zero interest rates. Attention in the US session turns to further labour market signals, with weekly unemployment claims released shortly after the open. The market is expecting a blip up to 213k after a dip last month, but most traders are expecting the impact to be limited ahead of tomorrow’s key NFP update.

The post General Market Analysis – 08/01/26 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 07 January 2026

What happened in the Asia session?
Australia’s CPI data dominated the Asia session on January 7, 2026, with headline inflation expected at 3.7% year-over-year and trimmed mean CPI anticipated to remain sticky above the RBA’s 2-3% target, fueling debates on potential rate hikes. China’s central bank pledged reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions in 2026 to ensure ample liquidity, boosting regional sentiment.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Traders should monitor key macroeconomic releases and financial news as European markets open around 8:00 AM GMT and U.S. sessions follow at 9:30 AM ET on January 7, 2026. Australia’s November CPI data, released early at 00:30 GMT, remains a focal point after showing modest headline easing to 3.7% year-on-year, though sticky core measures like trimmed mean CPI above the 2-3% target are fueling 40% odds of a February RBA rate hike.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1:15 pm GMT)

ISM Services PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

JOLTS Job Openings (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar exhibited modest strength, with the DXY index at approximately 98.56 following a 0.14-0.17% uptick, driven by global market caution ahead of US ISM Services PMI and Eurozone CPI data releases. Forecasts highlighted ongoing weakness pressures from Fed rate cuts, soft US jobs data (like prior NFP at 64k), and rival currency strength, yet short-term rebounds were noted against the euro (EUR/USD eyeing 1.1730 resistance before potential drops to 1.1495) and yen (USD/JPY consolidating near 158).

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labour market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualised pace in Q2 2025, according to revised estimates. However, Q3 and Q4 are expected to face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions, such as the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signalling a gradual disinflation path; updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labour market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for  27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1:15 pm GMT)

ISM Services PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

JOLTS Job Openings (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold maintains upward traction near $4,480 per ounce, rebounding from recent highs amid rate-cut bets, robust central bank purchases, and lingering 2025 momentum from tariffs and geopolitics, though analysts caution of a bearish correction testing $4,455 support before targeting $4,585+; broader 2026 forecasts eye $4,000-$5,000 stability with bullish biases from policy shifts.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y (10:00 am GMT)

CPI Flash Estimate y/y (10:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro currency experienced a modest rebound early in the week, gaining around 0.15% against the US dollar to reach approximately $1.1722 amid a pause in the dollar’s recent rally and reduced expectations for an ECB rate cut in February 2026. Bulgaria officially joined the eurozone as its 21st member on January 1, 2026, after receiving approval from the European Commission for meeting criteria like price stability and fiscal discipline, though this sparked protests among some Bulgarians concerned about the transition.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 4–5 January 2026 meeting, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40% and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision aligns with the assessment that the current stance supports medium-term price stability, as inflation edges below the 2% target while growth shows resilience amid balanced risks. Markets and commentary indicate value in holding steady, with no fixed path ahead given uncertainties in data.
• Price dynamics remain stable near target levels. Headline HICP inflation stood at 2.1% in November 2025, with projections for 1.9% in 2026 driven by base effects from energy and easing non-energy components. Services inflation persists somewhat elevated but trends toward moderation, alongside contained food pressures.
• December 2025 Eurosystem staff projections confirm headline inflation at 2.1% for 2025, declining to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 before nearing 2% in 2028. Downside risks from soft producer prices and anchored expectations offset potential upsides from geopolitics or fiscal measures.
• Euro area GDP growth remains resilient at subdued levels, with Q3 2025 at 0.3% qoq and forecasts around 1.2-1.4% for 2025-2027. Surveys signal stabilization, bolstered by public investment and external demand against softer private spending.
• The labour market stays tight overall, with unemployment steady at 6.4% through October 2025, near historic lows and solid participation. Real incomes support consumption as inflation eases, with credit conditions aiding gradual household and firm expansion.
• Business sentiment reflects caution over US policy, trade tensions, and tariffs, tempered by easing supply chains and a competitive euro. Export sectors gain a modest lift, while domestic drivers like investment build momentum.
• The Governing Council will continue to make data-dependent decisions meeting by meeting, assessing inflation outlook, underlying trends, and transmission. Both hikes and cuts remain possible based on data, avoiding preset paths amid uncertainties.
• Balance sheet normalization proceeds steadily, with APP and PEPP portfolios shrinking post-reinvestment halts, at a pace deemed suitable without market strain.

​The next meeting is on 4 to 5 February 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The CHF benefits from subdued USD performance linked to Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, heightened geopolitical tensions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine and US-Venezuela frictions), and a recent US-Switzerland trade deal easing prior tariffs. Manufacturing PMI hit a seven-month low in December, signalling contraction, yet safe-haven demand persists with no anticipated SNB rate changes in 2026

Central Bank Notes:

• At its 11 December 2025 monetary policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, extending the pause that began in September as the Governing Board judges that current settings are sufficient to keep inflation near, but still below, its target while avoiding an unnecessary move into negative rates.
• Recent data show that the tentative rebound in Swiss inflation has stalled, with headline CPI easing from 0.1% year‑on‑year in October to 0.0% in November and core inflation slipping to about 0.4%, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain very weak and that deflation risks, while contained, have not fully disappeared.
• The SNB’s conditional inflation forecast is likely to remain close to the September projections, with inflation still seen averaging roughly 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027 under an unchanged policy rate path, though the latest CPI prints argue for a slightly lower near‑term profile and keep open the option of renewed easing if activity or prices weaken further.
• The global backdrop has deteriorated further, as continuing U.S. tariff actions and softer external demand weigh on world trade, while uncertainty in key European and U.S. markets for Swiss exports persists, leaving the SNB cautious about the growth outlook despite Switzerland’s relatively resilient domestic demand.
• Business and labour-market sentiment in export‑oriented manufacturing remains subdued, with firms reporting pressure on margins from the still‑strong franc and softer foreign orders, although the broader economy is still expected to grow at around 1–1.5% in 2025 and unemployment only drifting up gradually from low levels.
• The SNB continues to stress its willingness to act if deflation risks re‑emerge, reiterating that it can ease policy through renewed rate cuts or targeted foreign‑exchange intervention if necessary, while also highlighting its commitment to transparent communication, including the publication of detailed minutes from recent assessments and ongoing dialogue with international partners on FX policy

The next meeting is on 19 March 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British Pound (GBP) shows mixed signals against the USD with forecasts indicating a short-term rally attempt toward resistance at 1.3565 before a potential decline to 1.3225, amid ongoing bullish channel dynamics and buyer pressure. Recent trading data from early January reflects GBP/USD around 1.3503, supported by sticky UK inflation near 3.2% YoY and a cautious Bank of England stance, though political risks and expected rate cuts add volatility.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on 18 December 2025, with the current Bank Rate standing at 4.00 per cent after being held in a close 5–4 vote at the 5 November meeting. Market pricing and analyst commentary point to a high risk of a 25‑basis‑point cut to 3.75 per cent, but this remains conditional on incoming inflation and labour‑market data, so the December note should be treated as pre‑decision guidance rather than an ex‑post summary.
• The BoE is expected to leave its quantitative tightening (QT) framework broadly unchanged through year‑end, maintaining the lower reduction pace in gilt holdings that was set earlier in 2025. Official communications still characterise the existing QT path as consistent with a restrictive stance, with policymakers stressing that balance‑sheet reduction will remain gradual and sensitive to market‑liquidity conditions.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 3.6 per cent year‑on‑year in October 2025, down from 3.8 per cent in September, helped by softer energy and goods prices, though it remains almost twice the 2 per cent target. Underlying inflation pressures, particularly in services, have continued to moderate only slowly, so the MPC’s central projection still envisages inflation moving closer to, but not yet reaching, 3 per cent over the course of 2026, contingent on further normalisation in energy and wage dynamics.
• UK economic activity remains weak heading into the December meeting, with the labour market showing further signs of slackening. The unemployment rate has risen toward just above 5 per cent on the latest three‑month figures to October, while overall regular pay growth has slowed to around the mid‑4 per cent range, reinforcing the view that domestic cost pressures are gradually easing.
• External conditions continue to cloud the outlook, with fragile global growth and fluctuating commodity prices contributing to bouts of financial‑market volatility. The MPC has highlighted that renewed global energy or food price shocks could temporarily slow the pace of disinflation, but such risks are currently judged unlikely to derail the medium‑term downward trajectory for inflation if domestic demand stays subdued.
• The balance of risks around the inflation outlook remains finely poised. Downside risks are linked to persistently weak domestic demand and rising unemployment, while upside risks come from still‑elevated inflation expectations, sticky services inflation, and the possibility that structural changes in the labour market leave less slack than conventional indicators suggest.
• Overall, the MPC’s stance going into December is restrictive but increasingly open to a gradual easing cycle, with any rate cuts expected to be measured and data‑dependent. Policymakers have reiterated that the Bank Rate will need to stay in restrictive territory until they are confident inflation is on a sustainable path back to the 2 per cent target, and they have signalled that the profile of cuts, once started, is likely to be shallow rather than rapid.
• The next meeting is on 5 February 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Strong Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Ivey PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) saw modest weakening against the US Dollar (USD) in recent trading sessions leading into January 7, 2026, with the USD/CAD pair reaching 1.3816 after a 0.31% gain on January 6. This extends a losing streak for the loonie amid oil price uncertainty and potential risks to trade pacts, influenced by geopolitical tensions like US military actions in Venezuela and heavy crude market dynamics in Alberta.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council left the target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at its 10 December 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations and signalling that the earlier easing cycle has likely concluded. The Bank noted that while global tariff tensions and trade uncertainty persist, the external backdrop has stabilised somewhat, reducing the need for additional insurance cuts even as world trade remains fragile.
• The Council acknowledged that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and tariffs continues to weigh on business sentiment, but recent data show Canadian manufacturing and goods exports holding up better than anticipated. Surveys cited by the Bank suggest export order books have stopped deteriorating, with firms reporting some rebuilding of backlogs despite still‑cautious capital spending plans.
• Canada’s economy rebounded more strongly than expected in the third quarter, with real GDP expanding at an annualised pace of about 2.6% after a 1.8% contraction in Q2, largely on the back of higher crude exports and government spending. Monthly data show output rising 0.2% in September, though flash estimates point to a softer start to Q4 as some sectors give back earlier gains.
• Service sector activity has firmed, with indicators showing the services PMI back above the 50 threshold and broadening gains in business and professional services. However, consumer-facing categories remain mixed, as still‑elevated price levels and only modest real income growth keep a lid on discretionary spending even as tourism and technology‑related services expand.
• Housing markets have continued to stabilise, with national resale activity and prices edging higher through the autumn alongside the earlier decline in borrowing costs. The Bank noted that while some major urban centres are seeing renewed price pressures, tighter underwriting standards and still‑high affordability constraints are expected to cap the pace of any rebound.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 2.2% year over year in October and is estimated to have remained near that rate in November, keeping it slightly above the 2% target but comfortably within the 1%–3% control range. Core measures have drifted lower, with CPI‑median and CPI‑trim around 3% or below, reinforcing the assessment that underlying price pressures are gradually moderating even as gasoline and some shelter components remain volatile.
• The Governing Council reiterated that the current policy rate is “about the right level” to keep inflation close to target while supporting the economy through a period of structural adjustment, and it signalled a shift away from near‑term easing expectations. While the Bank did not rule out future adjustments, officials stressed that, barring a material downside surprise to growth or inflation, further rate cuts are unlikely before 2026, and attention is now focused on the durability of the recovery and the evolution of core inflation.
• The next meeting is on 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices declined on January 7, 2026, amid concerns over potential global oversupply and progress toward ending the Ukraine war, which could ease sanctions on Russian oil. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered near $57 per barrel after a 2% drop, while Brent settled below $61, influenced by diplomatic breakthroughs and expectations of steady OPEC+ production into Q1.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 07 January 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior 0.0%
• Core CPI +0.5% y/y
• Prior +0.4%

Swiss inflation continues to hold rather flattish with there being no growth on the month-on-month reading as well. That continues to underscore a lack of any momentum in price pressures. The script has flipped on the SNB for quite a while now as the battle is now against deflation rather than inflation once again.

For now though, core annual inflation keeping at around 0.5% is still allowing them some breathing room so as to avoid diving into the toolbox of special monetary policy weapons to deal with the situation. In particular, the Swiss central bank wants to avoid negative interest rates for as much as they can and for as long as they can get away with.

And the latest inflation data above will just about help them stick to the status quo for now. It’s not a topic that I would want to get into now but there is a risk of China exporting deflation across the globe in the coming year. And if so, Switzerland will not be insulated from that impact. So, the SNB might be forced into another tough spot and one that might not be too within their control. Just some food for thought as we look to the year ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 99.07

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 98.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.46
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1714

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1654

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1762

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 183.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 181.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 184.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8707

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8642
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8746
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3489

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3421
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3549
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 211.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 208.77
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 212.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7907

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7860
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7988
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 156.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 155.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 157.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                     

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3746

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3684

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3890

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6698

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.6673

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6756

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5792

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5743

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5849

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 48,844.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 48,371.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 49,541.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 24,687.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 24,203.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,501.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,892.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,823.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,965.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 94,626.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 89,949.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 98,901.37

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,051.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 2.909.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,205.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 56.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 55.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 58.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,495.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,404.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,549.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 8th January 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 08 January 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. initial jobless claims and wholesale inventories, which came in largely as expected and signaled a resilient labor market amid ongoing productivity gains from AI investments. Financial news highlighted President Trump’s comments on potential tariff adjustments, easing some trade tension fears, alongside Federal Reserve signals of steady rates with upside growth risks due to fiscal policy support.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian markets face a choppy open, balancing geopolitical headwinds from China-Japan frictions, neutral global cues, and supportive FX/export trends, with traders eyeing China inflation data and US indicators for direction. Escalating China-Japan tensions, including China’s export bans on military-use goods to Japan, weighed on regional stocks like Japan’s Nikkei 225, down 1.1% amid broader mixed performances across Asia.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. dollar showed modest gains early in the week, rebounding from its sharpest annual drop in eight years during 2025, which was driven by interest rate differentials, trade policy uncertainties, and concerns over Federal Reserve independence under President Trump.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path. Updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices experienced a slight decline, closing around $4,471.80 per troy ounce after dropping 0.54% from the prior day, amid profit-taking by investors that pushed spot gold down over 1% to $4,452.97 at one point. Forecasts for January 8 suggest potential further short-term correction or sideways movement, with analysts noting possible tests of support near $4,455 or $4,373 before any rebound toward $4,475-$4,576, influenced by technical exhaustion after recent highs above $4,474.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar maintained upward momentum against a softening US Dollar, hovering near 0.6740 as traders eyed the critical Q4 CPI release on January 28 that could prompt RBA tightening as early as February; this follows a robust 8% gain in 2025 the strongest since 2020 bolstered by commodity strength, hawkish RBA rhetoric, and USD headwinds from US policy uncertainties, though no major data events occurred today to shift sentiment dramatically.

​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November 2025 policy meeting, adopting a cautious tone amid a surprise uptick in inflation data for the September quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive pause since the 25 basis point cut in August. The Board attributed some of the inflation rise to temporary factors like higher petrol prices and council rates, but noted signs of more persistent pressures from consumer demand.​
• Policymakers emphasized vigilance on inflation, with trimmed mean inflation expected to remain elevated in the near term before nearing the 2–3% target midpoint by mid-2027. Recent data showed underlying inflation staying above target until at least the second half of 2026, prompting upward revisions to forecasts. Capacity pressures are seen as slightly more pronounced than previously assessed, delaying any easing.
• Headline CPI for the September quarter exceeded expectations, driven partly by temporary items, while underlying measures signal ongoing stickiness. The shift to monthly CPI reporting, with the first full edition in November 2025, will enhance real-time inflation monitoring. Housing and services remain resilient contributors to price pressures.
• Domestic demand shows firmness in services alongside below-trend growth elsewhere, with capacity pressures not expected to ease significantly. The labor market is gradually softening, with unemployment projected to stabilize around 4.4%, though wage growth and productivity dynamics keep unit labor costs a concern. Household spending faces headwinds from high borrowing costs.​
• Global risks include geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility, set against modestly revised-up world growth outlooks. The Board describes its policy as mildly restrictive and data-dependent, balancing inflation control with employment goals. No rate hike was considered despite the inflation surprise.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive to address lingering price stability risks amid household and global vulnerabilities. Communications reaffirm the dual mandate of 2–3% inflation and full employment, with readiness to adjust based on incoming data.​
• Market expectations point to the cash rate holding through early 2026, with a possible modest cut to 3.3% mid-year if inflation eases as forecast. The new monthly CPI data will be key for timely insights.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 2 to 3 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

NZD/USD hovered near its highest in over a week earlier but dipped slightly to 0.5777 by January 7, down 0.14% daily, with a modest 3.09% yearly gain despite a flat monthly trend. The currency benefited from easing geopolitical tensions post-US actions in Venezuela and a softer USD after weak US manufacturing data.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen weakened modestly to USD/JPY 156.5610, extending losses amid China export controls, fiscal stimulus concerns, and subdued BOJ rate hike momentum, though longer-term forecasts remain cautiously optimistic with verbal intervention signals from Tokyo authorities. As of early January 8 data, no fresh catalysts have emerged to reverse the trend, positioning traders to watch US data and BOJ rhetoric closely. Overall monthly depreciation stands at 0.41%, highlighting persistent USD strength pressures.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan will meet on 18–19 December with markets almost fully pricing a 25-basis-point hike, which would raise the short-term policy rate from 0.50% to around 0.75%, as the bank moves further away from its ultra-loose stance while stressing that any tightening will remain gradual and data-dependent.
• The BOJ is expected to continue guiding the uncollateralized overnight call rate in a narrow band around the new policy rate, near 0.75%, while signaling that the pace and timing of any additional hikes will depend on how past increases affect bank lending, corporate financing conditions, and overall economic activity.
• The quarterly path of JGB purchases remains on a pre-announced, gradual taper: outright purchases are being reduced by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, then by roughly ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, with the bank still aiming for JGB purchases to settle near ¥2 trillion in Q1 2027 and retaining flexibility to adjust the pace if market functioning or yield volatility deteriorate.
• Japan’s economy has softened in the near term, with Q3 2025 GDP contracting at an annualized rate of approximately 2.3%, as weaker residential investment and external demand weighed on activity. Meanwhile, business sentiment in manufacturing has recently improved to a roughly four-year high.
• Core consumer inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to around 3.0% year-on-year in October, up from 2.9% in September and remaining above the BOJ’s 2% target, while the “core-core” measure excluding both fresh food and energy rose to about 3.1%, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures.
• In the very near term, some input-cost pressures are easing as earlier import price surges fade, but services inflation linked to labor shortages, along with steady wage gains, continues to support broader price momentum; firms’ and households’ medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored slightly above 2%, keeping short-term inflation risks tilted to the upside.
• For the coming quarters, the BOJ assesses that real growth will likely run below potential as the economy digests tighter financial conditions and past yen depreciation. However, accommodative real rates, positive real wage growth, and improving corporate sentiment are expected to help sustain a modest recovery in private consumption and business investment.
• Over the medium term, as overseas demand stabilizes and domestic labor markets remain tight, the BOJ expects wage settlements and inflation expectations to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory around or slightly above 2%, providing room for further cautious rate normalization as long as financial conditions remain supportive and the recovery is not derailed.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 22 to 23 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices showed modest gains on January 8, 2026, supported by tighter OPEC+ supplies and lower U.S. inventories, though a stronger dollar capped advances. Brent crude settled up 0.42% at $77.37 per barrel, while WTI rose 0.63% to $74.72 amid mixed U.S. jobs data and concerns over inflation.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 08 January 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior +1.5%; revised to +1.6%

That’s a surprising beat, with the jump owing to a spike in large orders in the manufacture of metal products (+25.3%) and in other vehicle construction i.e. aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles (+12.3%). That adds to moderate increases in several other sectors too, helping to underscore a strong reading for November.

Looking at other form of breakdowns, the orders for capital goods rose by 7.9% while orders for intermediate goods increased by 1.0% and for consumer goods by 8.2%. Then, foreign orders rose by 4.9% on the month while domestic orders increased by 6.5%.

Compared to November 2024, new orders in the manufacturing sector are estimated to be 10.5% higher year-on-year. As for the less volatile three-month comparison, new orders from September 2025 to November 2025 were 4.0% higher than in the preceding three months. If you exclude large orders from that equation, new orders rose by 2.1% over the same period.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior 0.0%; revised to -0.1%
• House prices +0.3% vs +1.1% y/y expected
• Prior +0.7%; revised to +0.6%

UK house prices dropped unexpectedly at the end of last year but managed to still round off the year slightly higher compared to where it was in December the previous year. Overall, it’s much like what other housing indicators have shown for the UK market. And that can be summed up by one word: resilience.

There’s nothing here that will get BOE policymakers off their seats as their main conflict is still on inflation for the most part.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 08 January 2026

What happened in the Asia session?
The Asia session featured disappointing Australian trade data and sharp Japanese real wage declines as primary macro releases, alongside hawkish RBA comments and PBOC liquidity measures, fostering cautious sentiment with fragmented equity moves, declines in Japan and Hong Kong offsetting minor mainland China and Australian gains, while FX volatility stayed low but spotlighted JPY strength and AUD resilience amid policy signals.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
US labor data like Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance releases today, alongside European indicators such as Germany Manufacturing Orders and Euro Area Economic Sentiment, amid mixed Wall Street closes and commodity volatility. Gold trades near $4,462/oz after profit-taking, while oil dips with Brent at $59.96/bbl due to US-Venezuela import deals. Currency pairs show EUR/USD at 1.1676 and USD/JPY at 156.78, reflecting broader market caution.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar today is in a wait‑and‑see stance: still underpinned by relatively high U.S. yields and delayed Fed‑cut expectations, but drifting slightly lower as traders await U.S. unemployment claims and other data for confirmation of the U.S. growth and inflation picture, with price action likely choppy and headline‑driven rather than strongly directional.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labour market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualised pace in Q2 2025, according to revised estimates. However, Q3 and Q4 are expected to face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions, such as the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signalling a gradual disinflation path. Updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labour market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for  27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is starting the day in a cautious, range‑bound mode, with prices holding steady as traders balance firm U.S. yields and a resilient dollar against safe‑haven demand and expectations of eventual Fed easing. The main catalyst for a decisive move today is likely to be the U.S. unemployment‑claims data; a stronger‑than‑expected labour signal could pressure gold lower intraday, while any signs of cooling would likely weaken the dollar and give bullion a modest boost.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro traded steadily near 1.1680 against the USD amid softer-than-expected German and French inflation data that dimmed ECB rate hike prospects, with markets eyeing full Eurozone figures this week. European stocks cooled slightly on Venezuela-related U.S. policy noise, while structural positives like Bulgaria’s euro adoption and rising global euro bond issuance underscored the currency’s strengthening appeal despite growth forecasts dipping to 1.2% for the year.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 4–5 January 2026 meeting, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40% and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision aligns with the assessment that the current stance supports medium-term price stability, as inflation edges below the 2% target while growth shows resilience amid balanced risks. Markets and commentary indicate value in holding steady, with no fixed path ahead given uncertainties in data.
• Price dynamics remain stable near target levels. Headline HICP inflation stood at 2.1% in November 2025, with projections for 1.9% in 2026 driven by base effects from energy and easing non-energy components. Services inflation persists somewhat elevated but trends toward moderation, alongside contained food pressures.
• December 2025 Eurosystem staff projections confirm headline inflation at 2.1% for 2025, declining to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 before nearing 2% in 2028. Downside risks from soft producer prices and anchored expectations offset potential upsides from geopolitics or fiscal measures.
• Euro area GDP growth remains resilient at subdued levels, with Q3 2025 at 0.3% qoq and forecasts around 1.2-1.4% for 2025-2027. Surveys signal stabilization, bolstered by public investment and external demand against softer private spending.
• The labour market stays tight overall, with unemployment steady at 6.4% through October 2025, near historic lows and solid participation. Real incomes support consumption as inflation eases, with credit conditions aiding gradual household and firm expansion.
• Business sentiment reflects caution over US policy, trade tensions, and tariffs, tempered by easing supply chains and a competitive euro. Export sectors gain a modest lift, while domestic drivers like investment build momentum.
• The Governing Council will continue to make data-dependent decisions meeting by meeting, assessing inflation outlook, underlying trends, and transmission. Both hikes and cuts remain possible based on data, avoiding preset paths amid uncertainties.
• Balance sheet normalization proceeds steadily, with APP and PEPP portfolios shrinking post-reinvestment halts, at a pace deemed suitable without market strain.

​The next meeting is on 4 to 5 February 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

CPI m/m (7:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

The CHF benefits from subdued USD performance, linked to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, heightened geopolitical tensions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine and US-Venezuela frictions), and a recent US-Switzerland trade deal that eases prior tariffs. Manufacturing PMI hit a seven-month low in December, signalling contraction, yet safe-haven demand persists with no anticipated SNB rate changes in 2026

Central Bank Notes:

• At its 11 December 2025 monetary policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, extending the pause that began in September as the Governing Board judges that current settings are sufficient to keep inflation near, but still below, its target while avoiding an unnecessary move into negative rates.
• Recent data show that the tentative rebound in Swiss inflation has stalled, with headline CPI easing from 0.1% year‑on‑year in October to 0.0% in November and core inflation slipping to about 0.4%, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain very weak and that deflation risks, while contained, have not fully disappeared.
• The SNB’s conditional inflation forecast is likely to remain close to the September projections, with inflation still seen averaging roughly 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027 under an unchanged policy rate path, though the latest CPI prints argue for a slightly lower near‑term profile and keep open the option of renewed easing if activity or prices weaken further.
• The global backdrop has deteriorated further, as continuing U.S. tariff actions and softer external demand weigh on world trade, while uncertainty in key European and U.S. markets for Swiss exports persists, leaving the SNB cautious about the growth outlook despite Switzerland’s relatively resilient domestic demand.
• Business and labour-market sentiment in export‑oriented manufacturing remains subdued, with firms reporting pressure on margins from the still‑strong franc and softer foreign orders, although the broader economy is still expected to grow at around 1–1.5% in 2025 and unemployment only drifting up gradually from low levels.
• The SNB continues to stress its willingness to act if deflation risks re‑emerge, reiterating that it can ease policy through renewed rate cuts or targeted foreign‑exchange intervention if necessary, while also highlighting its commitment to transparent communication, including the publication of detailed minutes from recent assessments and ongoing dialogue with international partners on FX policy

The next meeting is on 19 March 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Pound trades steadily around $1.346 against the USD, consolidating above mid-1.3400s with bullish potential intact but facing resistance near 1.3535 amid thin trading and BoE caution on rate cuts. Stronger UK factory data and Fed dovishness support recent 1.2% monthly gains, though forecasts warn of a rebound lower to 1.3215 if resistance holds, influenced by labor market cooling and UK political volatility.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on 18 December 2025, with the current Bank Rate standing at 4.00 per cent after being held in a close 5–4 vote at the 5 November meeting. Market pricing and analyst commentary point to a high risk of a 25‑basis‑point cut to 3.75 per cent, but this remains conditional on incoming inflation and labour‑market data, so the December note should be treated as pre‑decision guidance rather than an ex‑post summary.
• The BoE is expected to leave its quantitative tightening (QT) framework broadly unchanged through year‑end, maintaining the lower reduction pace in gilt holdings that was set earlier in 2025. Official communications still characterise the existing QT path as consistent with a restrictive stance, with policymakers stressing that balance‑sheet reduction will remain gradual and sensitive to market‑liquidity conditions.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 3.6 per cent year‑on‑year in October 2025, down from 3.8 per cent in September, helped by softer energy and goods prices, though it remains almost twice the 2 per cent target. Underlying inflation pressures, particularly in services, have continued to moderate only slowly, so the MPC’s central projection still envisages inflation moving closer to, but not yet reaching, 3 per cent over the course of 2026, contingent on further normalisation in energy and wage dynamics.
• UK economic activity remains weak heading into the December meeting, with the labour market showing further signs of slackening. The unemployment rate has risen toward just above 5 per cent on the latest three‑month figures to October, while overall regular pay growth has slowed to around the mid‑4 per cent range, reinforcing the view that domestic cost pressures are gradually easing.
• External conditions continue to cloud the outlook, with fragile global growth and fluctuating commodity prices contributing to bouts of financial‑market volatility. The MPC has highlighted that renewed global energy or food price shocks could temporarily slow the pace of disinflation, but such risks are currently judged unlikely to derail the medium‑term downward trajectory for inflation if domestic demand stays subdued.
• The balance of risks around the inflation outlook remains finely poised. Downside risks are linked to persistently weak domestic demand and rising unemployment, while upside risks come from still‑elevated inflation expectations, sticky services inflation, and the possibility that structural changes in the labour market leave less slack than conventional indicators suggest.
• Overall, the MPC’s stance going into December is restrictive but increasingly open to a gradual easing cycle, with any rate cuts expected to be measured and data‑dependent. Policymakers have reiterated that the Bank Rate will need to stay in restrictive territory until they are confident inflation is on a sustainable path back to the 2 per cent target, and they have signalled that the profile of cuts, once started, is likely to be shallow rather than rapid.
• The next meeting is on 5 February 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Strong Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar faced continued headwinds, weakening slightly to USD/CAD 1.3863 amid a prolonged losing streak tied to declining oil prices, Venezuelan geopolitical ripples strengthening the USD, and USMCA trade uncertainties, though analysts broadly forecast a rebound to 1.31-1.35 by year-end on Bank of Canada policy divergence and economic upticks.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council left the target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at its 10 December 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations and signalling that the earlier easing cycle has likely concluded. The Bank noted that while global tariff tensions and trade uncertainty persist, the external backdrop has stabilised somewhat, reducing the need for additional insurance cuts even as world trade remains fragile.
• The Council acknowledged that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and tariffs continues to weigh on business sentiment, but recent data show Canadian manufacturing and goods exports holding up better than anticipated. Surveys cited by the Bank suggest export order books have stopped deteriorating, with firms reporting some rebuilding of backlogs despite still‑cautious capital spending plans.
• Canada’s economy rebounded more strongly than expected in the third quarter, with real GDP expanding at an annualised pace of about 2.6% after a 1.8% contraction in Q2, largely on the back of higher crude exports and government spending. Monthly data show output rising 0.2% in September, though flash estimates point to a softer start to Q4 as some sectors give back earlier gains.
• Service sector activity has firmed, with indicators showing the services PMI back above the 50 threshold and broadening gains in business and professional services. However, consumer-facing categories remain mixed, as still‑elevated price levels and only modest real income growth keep a lid on discretionary spending even as tourism and technology‑related services expand.
• Housing markets have continued to stabilise, with national resale activity and prices edging higher through the autumn alongside the earlier decline in borrowing costs. The Bank noted that while some major urban centres are seeing renewed price pressures, tighter underwriting standards and still‑high affordability constraints are expected to cap the pace of any rebound.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 2.2% year over year in October and is estimated to have remained near that rate in November, keeping it slightly above the 2% target but comfortably within the 1%–3% control range. Core measures have drifted lower, with CPI‑median and CPI‑trim around 3% or below, reinforcing the assessment that underlying price pressures are gradually moderating even as gasoline and some shelter components remain volatile.
• The Governing Council reiterated that the current policy rate is “about the right level” to keep inflation close to target while supporting the economy through a period of structural adjustment, and it signalled a shift away from near‑term easing expectations. While the Bank did not rule out future adjustments, officials stressed that, barring a material downside surprise to growth or inflation, further rate cuts are unlikely before 2026, and attention is now focused on the durability of the recovery and the evolution of core inflation.
• The next meeting is on 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices showed modest gains, with Brent trading above $60 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate around $56, rebounding from recent declines amid US actions on Venezuelan oil supplies. Key developments included US measures to control Venezuelan crude sales indefinitely, seize sanctioned tankers, and redirect 30-50 million barrels to American markets following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, aiming to stabilize exports while benefiting US interests.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 08 January 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.21%, Shanghai Composite up 0.09%, Hang Seng down 1.29% ASX up 0.13%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,446.61 (-0.35%), Silver at $77.615 (-0.03%), Brent Oil at $60.22 (0.42%), WTI Oil at $56.23 (0.43%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.142, UK 10-year yield at 4.4160, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8076

News & Data:

• (USD) ISM Services PMI 52.5 to 52.9 expected
• (USD) JOLTS Job Openings 52.5 to 52.9 expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets traded mostly lower on Thursday, although South Korean equities stood out after tech heavyweight Samsung Electronics posted a record quarterly operating profit. The company crossed the 20 trillion won mark for the first time in the fourth quarter, lifting sentiment in Seoul.

Market participants remained cautious as they assessed the likely interest-rate trajectory of the U.S. Federal Reserve this year amid intensifying geopolitical tensions and growing worries over the global economic outlook. Investors also digested mixed economic signals from the United States and awaited key jobs data, along with a Supreme Court decision on President Donald Trump’s global tariffs, for further market cues.

U.S. Treasury yields held on to overnight gains, while the dollar was largely steady against major peers on expectations that the Fed could deliver at least two rate cuts in 2026. Oil prices were mostly flat after two straight sessions of declines, supported by a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories. Gold prices remained subdued following a sharp drop the previous session driven by profit-taking.

In Asia, China’s Shanghai Composite edged down 0.2 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.4 percent amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.5 percent as tensions between China and Japan weighed on sentiment, with chemical stocks declining after China launched an anti-dumping probe into dichlorosilane imports from Japan.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.1 percent, helped by a 1.5 percent gain in Samsung shares. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.2 percent, while New Zealand’s benchmark index ended marginally lower.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Thursday 8th January 2026: Asian Stocks Mostly Lower as Samsung Lifts Seoul, Fed Rate Outlook in Focus first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.