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Trump tweeted (on his own social media app) telling Iranians to “immediately evacuate Tehran”.

The White House have deconstructed the tweet:

• A White House official told CNN on Monday that Trump’s social media post telling Iranians to “immediately evacuate Tehran” reflected the urgency of the need for Iran to come to the table as its tit-for-tat with Israel continues

• The official said that Trump has been receiving regular updates

Trump admin officials are reported to have ‘retweeted’ the post. I’d suggest this is just sycophancy rather than anything more meaningful. Perhaps in a few days time US military forces will be better positioned for action against Iran. Wouldn’;t want top be in Tehran when that happens.

Earlier:

• US is accelerating the deployment of additional aircraft carrier group to the Middle East

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand Food Price Index for May 2025 +0.5% m/m

• prior +0.8%

NZD/USD not doing a real lot, let’s take a look at oil instead:

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The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New Zealand.

• calculated and published monthly by Statistics New Zealand
• the FPI tracks the prices of a basket of food items that represent the typical spending patterns of New Zealand households
• the FPI is an important indicator of inflation in New Zealand, as food prices account for a significant portion of household expenditure

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian media (CBC) with the info:

Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump are putting a deadline on ironing out bilateral trade irritants and getting some sort of deal on tariffs: 30 days.

• the two met on the sidelines of the G7 summit
• agreed the trade talks need to be sped up
• goal of reaching a deal sometime over the next month
• the first time either side has put a definitive timeline on reaching a deal

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fuji TV report conveyed via Reuters:

Japan Prime Minister Ishiba,

• US President Trump did not reach tariff agreement, Fuji TV reports

• Japan, U.S. confirmed to continue tariff talks,

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

more to come

Trump posts:

“Iran should have signed the “deal” I told them to sign….IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON… Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UBS believes the sharp market reaction to the latest Middle East crisis is overdone, arguing that the geopolitical risk premium is inflated relative to the actual threat to global oil supply. The bank notes that Iran accounts for just 1.6% of global output.

Unlike past conflicts that triggered genuine supply shocks, UBS sees the current episode as unlikely to have lasting market impact. It advises investors to buy on dips, viewing any pullback as a buying opportunity rather than the start of a sustained downturn.

The bank maintains a bullish outlook on global equities, particularly in sectors such as defense and technology,

• sees gold rising to $3,500/oz by end-2025 as demand climbs for both strategic and inflation-hedging assets.

Bottom line: UBS sees the geopolitical fear as excessive and expects markets to remain underpinned by supportive policy, resilient wages, and AI-led productivity gains.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

White House:

United States intends to create an annual quota of 100,000 vehicles for United Kingdom automotive imports at a 10 percent tariff rate

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US President Donald Trump is expected to present Iran with a “last chance” offer, US and European officials told The Jerusaem Post on Monday.

• One official added that it might even be slightly better than the previous proposal the administration submitted to the Iranians about a week and a half ago.
• The expectation is that even if such a proposal is made, it will be based on the American principle of zero uranium enrichment.

Link here for more detail.

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Earlier:

• US is accelerating the deployment of additional aircraft carrier group to the Middle East
• Trump says on Iran that we will do something after leaving G7

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Pentagon is rushing the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and its escorts from Asia to the Middle East, skipping a planned stop in Vietnam, so it can operate alongside the USS Carl Vinson.

• The overlap will leave two U.S. carrier strike groups in the region for at least several weeks as fighting between Israel and Iran escalates.
• At the same time, Navy destroyers equipped with ballistic-missile-defence systems are redeploying from Europe to reinforce the ships already shielding Israel and American forces, with more BMD-capable vessels expected to arrive in coming days

Info via NBC

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump speaking

• On the trade deal with the UK

Now on Iran:

• Deal likely or “something will happen” after G7

• Iran wants to make a deal
• Warns Iran would be “foolish” not to sign with Israel
• Trump on AUKUS: “We’re very long time partners, allies”
• Says US sanctions on Russia would be costly without a deal

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Earlier:

• Pound shrugs off news that final UK-US trade deal near

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via Axios comes a heads up on what to watch that will trigger a US response against Iran:

• The Trump administration told several Middle Eastern allies on Sunday that it doesn’t plan to get actively involved in the war between Israel and Iran unless Iran targets Americans, two sources from countries that received that U.S. message tell Axios.
• The U.S. has helped Israel intercept missiles, but made clear Israel is acting alone in attacking Iran. The U.S. message is that if Iran attacks Americans in response, it will be crossing a red line.

Link to the report is here if you’d like more info.

Anyone from the US in the vicinity of the fighting would do well to be extra careful.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.