Articles

• Prior month 0.7% revised to 0.6%
• Construction spending -0.5% vs 0.2% estimate

Details from the Census Bureau:

Total Construction

• March 2025 spending: $2,196.1B, down -0.5% (±0.8%) from February’s $2,206.9B

• Up 2.8% (±1.2%) from March 2024’s $2,135.8B

• Year-to-date (Jan–Mar 2025): $485.7B, up 2.9% (±1.0%) from $472.2B in same period 2024

Private Construction

• Total private spending: $1,688.0B, down -0.6% (±0.5%) from February’s $1,697.7B

• Residential construction: $937.7B, down -0.4% (±1.3%) from $941.7B

• Nonresidential construction: $750.3B, down -0.8% (±0.5%) from $756.0B

Public Construction

• Total public spending: $508.1B, down -0.2% (±1.5%) from February’s $509.2B

• Educational construction: $110.0B, down -0.6% (±1.6%) from $110.6B

• Highway construction: $145.8B, down -0.5% (±5.6%) from $146.4B

Key Factors:

• Rising material costs, particularly in steel and copper, have increased construction input prices by 0.5% in March, contributing to project delays and cancellations.

• Tariff uncertainties have further strained the industry, leading to cautious investment and planning.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prelim was 50.7
• Prior was 50.2
• Panelists noted an increased apprehension in product
  markets, mainly around the future direction of US trade policy
• Business confidence at 10 month low
• stocks of finished goods were reduced for a fifth
  month in a row, and to the greatest degree of the year so far

I’m surprised that inventories have been drawn down so deeply and it points to a rough hit from shortages than anticipated, and sooner.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P
Global Market Intelligence

“Manufacturing continued to flat-line in April amid
worrying downside risks to the outlook and sharply rising
costs.
“Factory output fell for a second successive month as
tariffs were widely blamed on a slump in export orders
and curbed spending among customers more broadly
amid rising uncertainty.
“Although the survey saw some producers report
evidence of beneficial tariff-related switching of
customer demand away from imports, any such sales
increase was countered by worries over tariff-related
disruptions to supply chains and lost export sales. This
served to drive business confidence about prospects
in the year ahead down sharply to the gloomiest for 10
months.
“Concerns have also spiked in terms of input costs,
especially for imported materials and components, due
to the triple whammy of tariff-related price hikes, supply
shortages, and the weaker dollar.
“Manufacturers are responding to these changing
demand, supply and cost conditions by raising their
selling prices and trimming headcounts to help protect
their margins.”

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 50.7
• Prices paid vs 70.3 expected
• Employment vs 44.7 prior — lowest since Sept (and second lowest since 2020)
• New orders vs 45.2 prior – lowest since June 2023
• Production vs 48.3 prior
• Imports vs 50.1 prior

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 46.3

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• EV sales down 39%
• Hybrids up 29.6%
• ICE up 17.5%

This is an interesting number because it shows that the race to beat the tariffs was real. That’s going to create a bullwhip effect down the line and it shows a real effect on consumer behaviour. That’s going to lead to a blockbuster April retail sales report.

Ford shares are up 1% premarket, which puts them right back to where they were in 1985.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This is it? Are they going to unveil the first trade deal or at least the details?

If that’s the case, make sure to follow the news until the US market close as that would be HUGE for the markets.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

This was an interesting tease from Hassett on tariff deals:

If you’d like the person in the middle of all that is Jamieson Greer and Howard Lutnick outside of China. And I’m sure they’re happy to talk to you about it; I’m sure there will be news by the end of the day.

CNBC: So you don’t know who is first or what is in the air?

Hassett: I think I know but I can’t tease

CNBC: You do think you know?

Hassett: I do think I know.

I expect this will be an announcement of a deal with India, where there are mounting signs of a deal. The contours of that will be key, particularly if the US is will to lower its tariff floor below 10%.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 241K
• Continuing claims 1.916m vs 1.864m exp

Note that all the claims appeared to be from New York State, which argues this was a quirk rather than a troubling turn in the jobs market.

h/t @zerohedge

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Hopeful for progress with China on trade.
• We are very close to making progress with China.
• Have hard offers from more than 20 countries.
• Trump doesn’t support a tax increase on the wealthy.

There’s been lots of de-escalating comments in the recent days with China and we even got the news of the US reaching to China for tariff talks (even though we haven’t got any official statement). It’s clear that they can’t go on with this trade war for too long as the economic damage would be big for both of them.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The market appears to be coming around to the idea that the US economy is fine, or at least that it was fine before April.

The combination of upbeat commentary from Visa and the internals of yesterday’s GDP report has the market thinking that the economy is on strong footing. The recent initial jobless claims numbers bear that out but that set will be tested again today. The consensus is 224K, up a touch from 222K a week ago.

Then at 10 am ET, the focus will shift to the industrial economy with March construction spending and April ISM manufacturing. The latter is expected to slip to 48.0 from 49.0. Lately there has been a focus on the ‘prices paid’ numbers as well but with oil prices cratering, the market is seeing more room for the Fed to cut rates.

WTI crude was last down $1.21 to $57.00.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

BOJ press conference:

• USD/JPY extends gains as Ueda delivers more dovish messaging
• BOJ governor Ueda: Uncertainty stemming from trade policies have heightened sharply
• BOJ governor Ueda: Underlying inflation to cool down due to tariffs, slower global growth
• BOJ governor Ueda: Timing of next rate hike could be swayed a lot depending on tariffs
• BOJ governor Ueda: If the outlook changes, then we will need to adjust our policy
• BOJ governor Ueda says would expect US tariffs to be above the base 10% levied

Headlines:

• US futures continue to hold up in European morning trade
• No relief for oil as price continues to tumble lower
• The market sees more Fed rate cuts after the weak US GDP but it could be wrong
• US Bessent: Need to see de-escalation with China on tariffs
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent on the economy: We expect to see GDP revised
• UK March mortgage approvals 64.31k vs 64.80k expected
• UK April final manufacturing PMI 45.4 vs 44.0 prelim
• US April Challenger layoffs 105.44k vs 275.24k prior

Markets:

• USD leads, JPY lags on the day
• UK FTSE flat; S&P 500 futures up 1.1%
• US 10-year yields down 3.8 bps to 4.136%
• Gold down 2.5% to $3,203.53
• WTI crude down 2.2% to $56.92
• Bitcoin up 1.8% to $96,241

There wasn’t too much in European trading today amid a holiday in conjunction with Labor Day.

BOJ governor Ueda’s press conference at least helped to keep things a little interesting, as he delivered more dovish remarks on the economy and inflation. That is leading to markets thinking about a further pause on rates in June next, following the decision today.

USD/JPY nudged higher from 144.20 to 144.75 during the presser and is still largely holding gains, seen up 1% at 144.50 levels now.

Besides that, there wasn’t too much action in the FX space. The dollar is keeping steadier across the board, but mostly little changed against the other major currencies. EUR/USD is lightly down by 0.1% to 1.1320 but was hovering around 1.1300 at the tail end of Asia trading. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is flat at 1.3325 and USD/CAD just up slightly by 0.2% to 1.3823 currently.

In other markets, US futures are keeping higher after the late rebound from Wall Street yesterday. And the mood is helped by a jump up in tech shares after stronger earnings from Meta and Microsoft.

We had US Treasury secretary Bessent out with some remarks as well but nothing that is too meaningful, mainly just a repeat of what we’ve heard before. It’s now more about walking the walk, not talking the talk.

The bond market is also continuing to hold the calm, so that’s keeping the risk mood in a better spot to start the month.

In the commodities space, gold is pushed down as it breaks away from its recent consolidation. The $3,200 level is now eyed next amid the break from the short-term technical range over the past week or so.

Oil was a bit of a standout mover as it dipped down to a low of $56.40 as concerns continue to grow on multiple fronts on the oil market.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

BOJ press conference:

• USD/JPY extends gains as Ueda delivers more dovish messaging
• BOJ governor Ueda: Uncertainty stemming from trade policies have heightened sharply
• BOJ governor Ueda: Underlying inflation to cool down due to tariffs, slower global growth
• BOJ governor Ueda: Timing of next rate hike could be swayed a lot depending on tariffs
• BOJ governor Ueda: If the outlook changes, then we will need to adjust our policy
• BOJ governor Ueda says would expect US tariffs to be above the base 10% levied

Headlines:

• US futures continue to hold up in European morning trade
• No relief for oil as price continues to tumble lower
• The market sees more Fed rate cuts after the weak US GDP but it could be wrong
• US Bessent: Need to see de-escalation with China on tariffs
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent on the economy: We expect to see GDP revised
• UK March mortgage approvals 64.31k vs 64.80k expected
• UK April final manufacturing PMI 45.4 vs 44.0 prelim
• US April Challenger layoffs 105.44k vs 275.24k prior

Markets:

• USD leads, JPY lags on the day
• UK FTSE flat; S&P 500 futures up 1.1%
• US 10-year yields down 3.8 bps to 4.136%
• Gold down 2.5% to $3,203.53
• WTI crude down 2.2% to $56.92
• Bitcoin up 1.8% to $96,241

There wasn’t too much in European trading today amid a holiday in conjunction with Labor Day.

BOJ governor Ueda’s press conference at least helped to keep things a little interesting, as he delivered more dovish remarks on the economy and inflation. That is leading to markets thinking about a further pause on rates in June next, following the decision today.

USD/JPY nudged higher from 144.20 to 144.75 during the presser and is still largely holding gains, seen up 1% at 144.50 levels now.

Besides that, there wasn’t too much action in the FX space. The dollar is keeping steadier across the board, but mostly little changed against the other major currencies. EUR/USD is lightly down by 0.1% to 1.1320 but was hovering around 1.1300 at the tail end of Asia trading. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is flat at 1.3325 and USD/CAD just up slightly by 0.2% to 1.3823 currently.

In other markets, US futures are keeping higher after the late rebound from Wall Street yesterday. And the mood is helped by a jump up in tech shares after stronger earnings from Meta and Microsoft.

We had US Treasury secretary Bessent out with some remarks as well but nothing that is too meaningful, mainly just a repeat of what we’ve heard before. It’s now more about walking the walk, not talking the talk.

The bond market is also continuing to hold the calm, so that’s keeping the risk mood in a better spot to start the month.

In the commodities space, gold is pushed down as it breaks away from its recent consolidation. The $3,200 level is now eyed next amid the break from the short-term technical range over the past week or so.

Oil was a bit of a standout mover as it dipped down to a low of $56.40 as concerns continue to grow on multiple fronts on the oil market.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.