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Japan finance minister Kato

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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Apple announced EPS and revenues that th modestly beat expectations:

• Revenue: $95.36 billion

  • vs. estimate: $94.59 billion → BEAT

  • vs. Q2 2024: $90.75 billion → +5.1%

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.65

  • vs. estimate: $1.63 → BEAT

  • vs. Q2 2024: $1.52 → +8.6%

Revenue by Product Segment

• iPhone: $46.84 billion

  • vs. estimate: $46.17 billion → BEAT

  • YoY growth: +2.3%

  • Driven by iPhone 16e demand despite macro headwinds

• Mac: $7.95 billion

  • vs. estimate: $7.92 billion → BEAT

  • YoY growth: +10.4%

  • Boosted by M4 MacBook Air refresh

• iPad: $6.40 billion

  • vs. estimate: $6.07 billion → BEAT

  • YoY growth: +8.5%

  • Supported by new iPad Air and Pro models

• Wearables, Home & Accessories: $7.52 billion

  • vs. estimate: $7.85 billion → MISS

  • YoY decline: −1.8%

  • Soft global demand, especially for accessories

• Services: $26.65 billion

  • vs. estimate: $26.69 billion → MISS (slightly)

  • YoY growth: +17.9%

  • Strength in App Store, iCloud, and subscriptions

Geographic Performance

• Greater China: $16.0 billion

  • vs. estimate: $15.9 billion → BEAT

  • Modest growth despite local competition

Capital Return

• Dividend: Raised by 4% to $0.26/share

• Buyback: New $100 billion share repurchase authorization

Shares of Apple are trading down -2.12% after earnings

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Other earnings after the close showed:

• Motorola Solutions (MSI): MIXED

  • EPS: $3.18 vs. $3.01 → BEAT

  • Revenue: $2.5B vs. $2.52B → MISS

• Reddit (RDDT): BEAT

  • EPS: $0.13 vs. $0.01 → BEAT

  • Revenue: $392.4M vs. $369.0M → BEAT

  • Shares are up around 17% in after-hours trading

• Live Nation Entertainment (LYV): MIXED

  • EPS: -$0.32 vs. -$0.38 → BEAT (less negative)

  • Operating income: $115M (exp. $75.4M) → BEAT

  • Revenue: $2.50B vs. $3.47B → MISS

• Stryker Corp (SYK): BEAT

  • EPS: $2.84 vs. $2.69 → BEAT

  • Revenue: $5.9B vs. $5.71B → BEAT

  • FY adj. EPS view: $13.20–13.45 (vs. est. $13.33) → IN LINE

• Airbnb (ABNB): BEAT

  • EPS: $0.24 vs. $0.23 → BEAT

  • Revenue: $2.3B vs. $2.26B → BEAT

• Amgen (AMGN): BEAT

  • EPS: $4.90 vs. $4.25 → BEAT

  • Revenue: $8.15B vs. $8.10B → BEAT

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Hassett on tariffs: I’m sure there will be news by the end of the day
• US April ISM manufacturing 48.7 vs 48.0 expected
• US initial jobless claims 241K vs 224K expected
• April US S&P Global manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs 50.7 prelim
• Canada April S&P Global manfuacturing PMI 45.3 vs 46.3 prior
• Amazon revenues $155.7B vs expectations of $154.889B. EPS $1.59 versus $1.36 expected.
• Pres. Trump: Things moving right on schedule on tax bill
• US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz is being replaced – reports
• May forex seasonals: It’s not time to sell the US dollar just yet
• April non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Any signs of layoffs?
• US March construction spending -0.5% vs 0.2% estimate
• WH Eco Adviser Hassett: Hopeful for progress with China on trade
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent on the economy: We expect to see GDP revised

Markets:

• Gold down $54 to $3233
• US 10-year yields up 3.3 bps to 4.21%
• WTI crude oi up 80-cents to $0.80 to $59.02
• S&P 500 up 0.6%
• USD leads, JPY lags

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent touted lower two-year yields early in the day and — right on cue — they then embarked on a big reversal, rising to 3.69% from 3.55%. That turn came as the market continues to shrug off tariff fears, which was helped by an ISM manufacturing report that wasn’t as bad a feared.

With that, the US dollar held steady bids across the board and was particularly strong against USD/JPY after the BOJ refrained from hawkish talk earlier. That pair ultimately rose 250 pips before giving back about 25 late.

Other US dollar moves were much smaller as it was mostly yen selling on better risk appetite. The S&P 500 climbed for its 8th day in a row in a move that’s beginning to squeeze shorts or create FOMO. Hassett helped to fuel the moves by saying that an announcement of a trade deal was coming later today, though we continue to wait.

The oil market was lively as it was beaten up hard in early US trade before reversing. It was helped along by a Saudi denial of earlier reports that it was warning market participants that it was ready for an extended period of low prices. Brent fell to $59.30 before recovering to $61.85.

Friday is non-farm payrolls and oftentimes that restrains volatility but the thinking of most is this: If it’s strong it doesn’t really matter because it was before the tariffs. If it’s weak it could just be a one-off and much of the economy looked fine.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There is not much on the data agenda likely to move major FX rates around too much upon release.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
• I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Revenues $155.7 billion which is higher than the $154.889 billion estimate.
• EPS $1.59 versus $1.36 expected.
• AWS +17% to $29.3 million
• AWS operating income $11.5 billion versus $9.4 billion previous

Forward guidance for Q2

• Q2 operating income guidance 13 – $17.5 billion which is lower than expected $17.82 billion expected.
• Q2 revenue view $159 billion-$164 billion versus expectations of $161.62 billion.
• Q2 revenue guidance anticipates unfavorable impact of about $10 billion from FX rates.

Amazon shares are trading down 4.86% on concerns about guidance.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s the May Day holiday in much of the world today and it’s generally a great month for workers getting in paid in US dollars. May tends to be strong for the dollar.

• Strongest month of the year for the Dollar Index
• Weakest month for EUR/USD
• Second-worst month for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY
• AUD/CAD is particularly weak, softest month by far
• Second-strongest month for copper
• Strongest month for oil, though certainly skewed by the massive percentage gain (+88%) in May 2020 (note the reversal higher today). It also tends to be a very volatile month for oil
• The first week of May is generally the strongest for stocks while the second week is the weakest
• Middling month for stock markets overall

The main pattern is US dollar strength and the turn of the calendar comes after a four-month swoon in the Dollar Index. Even a small relative bounce here would be a decent monthly gain.

For those itching to sell the US dollar, the pattern for the Dollar Index dims in June and July so a strong bounce could be a spot to sell.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

A new report says that Europe is arguing that when services are considered that the trade deficit with the US is only €50 billion and they could bridge that by purchasing more natural gas and agricultural products.

Sefkovic indicated the EU would not accept a deal that kept tariffs at 10%, which is a critical point.

We are waiting on US deals to see if 10% is the floor, or if Trump is going to try and use tariffs to raise revenue. My guess is that Congress won’t tolerate 10% and that many partners won’t either but Trump does love tariffs so we’ll see.

Hassett said earlier today that a deal announcement is coming, which I expect to be with India. Will the floor go below 10%?

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump on Truth Social:

ALERT: All purchases of Iranian Oil, or Petrochemical products, must
stop, NOW! Any Country or person who buys ANY AMOUNT of OIL or
PETROCHEMICALS from Iran will be subject to, immediately, Secondary
Sanctions. They will not be allowed to do business with the United
States of America in any way, shape, or form. Thank you for your
attention to this matter, PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

The US has been sanctioning buyers of Iran’s oil for awhile but it mostly goes to China and it’s not like they could be tariffed any more than they already are.

The bigger question around Iran are the ongoing nuclear talks. If those fall apart there could be real repercussions in the oil market.

An even bigger development would be if US Congress were to put secondary sanctions on Russian oil.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Consensus estimate +130K
• Estimate range +25K to +195K
• March was +228K
• Private consensus +125K versus +209K prior
• Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1519%
• Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.1396%
• Prior participation rate 62.5%
• Prior underemployment U6 7.9%
• Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% versus +3.8% prior
• Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3% prior
• Avg weekly hours exp 34.2 versus 34.2 prior

Numbers released so far this month:

• ADP report +62K versus +147K prior (lowest in almost 2 years)
• ISM services employment not yet released
• ISM manufacturing employment 46.5 vs 44.7 prior
• Challenger job cuts 105.44k vs 275.2k prior
• Philly employment +0.2 vs +19.7 prior
• Empire employment -2.6 vs -4.1 prior
• Initial jobless claims survey week 216K vs 225K prior

Seasonals from BMO:

• In April, the headline beat 57% of the time and missed 43% of the time
• On unemployment, the rate has been lower than expected 42% of the time, higher 39% of the time and in line 19% of the time

ADP looms large ahead of the report and the recent JOLTS number was soft but the initial jobless claims numbers lately haven’t shown any sign of layoffs, including today’s number which was skewed by New York teachers.

I’d note that the recent US dollar outperformance is based on the idea that tariffs won’t hit as hard and the Fed won’t need to rush into cuts. That’s a dangerous assumption ahead of a jobs report.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• We expect to see GDP revised.
• GDP decline may have been due to inventory stocking of imports.
• US households consumption is strong.
• 2 year yields below Federal Funds Rate is signal that the Fed should cut rates.
• Our policies will bring down inflation.

The bolded comment is a classic “rule of thumb” in the markets. When the 2 year yield falls below the FFR, it’s a signal that the market views the tightening cycle over and expects the Fed to cut rates soon.

The problem here is that it’s based on markets expectations and they can be wrong at times. We saw that in 2023 when the 2 year yield has been below the FFR for a long time but then went all the way back to match the FFR.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.