Articles

• Prior +0.1%

That’s a marginal revision lower to the initial estimate but still reaffirms decent growth in the euro area economy in Q1. All of this of course is before we see any impact from tariffs. So, it’s pretty much outdated data.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +1.1%

That’s an unexpected surge in euro area industrial output. The breakdown shows it comes amid a jump in capital goods in particular. The rise there (+3.2%) was accompanied by increases in output for durable consumer goods (+3.1%) and also intermediate goods (+0.6%). That was slightly offset by a fall in energy output (-0.5%) on the month.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• 2025 global supply growth forecast seen at 1.6 mil bpd (up by 380k bpd)
• 2025 global demand growth forecast seen at 650k bpd for remainder of 2025 (down from 990k bpd in Q1)
• 2025 average oil demand growth forecast seen at 740k bpd (up by 20k bpd)
• 2026 average oil demand growth forecast seen at 760k bpd (previously 690k bpd)

The agency sees a further slowdown in oil demand growth, largely due to ongoing economic headwinds and rising EV sales. Adding to that is a further increase in supply as OPEC+ steps up production further. Not quite the positive outlook for the oil market as such. But at least looking to next year, IEA sees some better prospects compared to the month before.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• China always open to resolving economic, trade relations offline.
• Will release more information in due course.

It starts looking more and more like Trump wasn’t lying about US and China having private conversations about trade, and the Chinese were just denying that because they want to keep things private (which is something Trump couldn’t do).

Anyway, this is not new information, so it won’t affect the market, but it’s nice to see that things continue to look better and better.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• We expect that the negotiations will lead to a good result
• But would like to make it clear that we are prepared to act if talks do not succeed

So far, it’s been very slow-going in terms of any progress between the EU and US. Well, to be fair the only countries that are making real progress are the US’ closer allies i.e. UK, Japan, India, South Korea. If you think about it, it is a slap in the face to everyone else that China also got the same 10% baseline treatment after all the retaliation by only deciding to sit down and talk. Meanwhile, everyone else had no choice but to get that shoved down their throat even by trying to reconcile instead of retaliating.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• EU, US have a greed to intensify contact on trade talks

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• We are going into a series of negotiations with China to prevent escalation again.
• We now have a mechanism with China counterparts.

There’s nothing new here.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Eurostoxx -0.6%
• Germany DAX -0.6%
• France CAC 40 -0.4%
• UK FTSE -0.5%
• Spain IBEX -0.2%
• Italy FTSE MIB -0.6%

This comes as US futures are also holding lower so far on the day. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5%, with Nasdaq futures down 0.5% and Dow futures down 0.6% currently. It’s a bit of a check back for US stocks after the surging gains all through the week, mainly for tech shares.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

That’s a much stronger promise than what was initially reported here. It will be interesting to see what Trump is offering back in return though. Will India be able to buy an exemption? Or is there still going to be the 10% baseline?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• We’re getting close to doing a deal with Iran.
• Iran has agreed to terms; we want them to succeed.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

With his visit to the Middle East, Trump is turning his attention to other geopolitical matters this week. Iran continues to defend their stance and not give in though, so we’ll see about that. But for markets in general, all of this at least buys further reprieve on the trade front after the US and China settled on a 90-day de-escalation since the weekend.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.8%
• HICP +0.9% vs +0.8% y/y prelim
• Prior +0.9%

Core annual inflation continues to hold steady at 1.3%, the same as in March and February.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.