Articles

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Further upside in the cross appears limited around 125.00
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Further upside in the cross appears limited around 125.00

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Further upside in the cross appears limited around 125.00

20993   January 31, 2019 16:33   FXStreet   Market News  

  • There is no change in the neutral stance on EUR/JPY, as it is expected to extend the current multi-session sideline theme for the time being, always capped by the critical 125.00 neighbourhood.
  • A convincing break above this important area of resistance should put the 127.00 region (late December peaks) back to the radar.
  • In the meantime, the current consolidative stance is seen unchanged as long as the 123.39 level contains the downside (low January 15).

EUR/JPY daily chart

EUR/JPY

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 125.01
    Today Daily change: -0.08 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.06%
    Today Daily Open: 125.09
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 124.43
    Daily SMA50: 126.38
    Daily SMA100: 128.1
    Daily SMA200: 128.69
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 125.47
    Previous Daily Low: 124.88
    Previous Weekly High: 125.32
    Previous Weekly Low: 123.78
    Previous Monthly High: 129.3
    Previous Monthly Low: 125.36
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 125.24
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 125.1
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 124.82
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 124.55
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 124.22
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 125.41
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 125.74
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 126.01

 

Full Article

Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1% below forecasts (1.1%) in January
Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1% below forecasts (1.1%) in January

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) fell from previous 0.1% to -0.6% in January
France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) fell from previous 0.1% to -0.6% in January

When is the Eurozone Prelim flash GDP and how could it affect EUR/USD?
When is the Eurozone Prelim flash GDP and how could it affect EUR/USD?

When is the Eurozone Prelim flash GDP and how could it affect EUR/USD?

20990   January 31, 2019 15:33   FXStreet   Market News  

Eurozone Prelim flash GDP estimate overview

At 1000 GMT, the first reading of the Eurozone fourth-quarter GDP figures will be reported. The consensus amongst traders expects the bloc’s economic growth to steady at 0.2% inter-quarter in Q4, while on an annualized basis, is expected to decelerate to 1.2% versus 1.6% booked last.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street’s proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 4 to -2.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 120-130 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

From a technical perspective, an upside surprise in the Eurozone GDP figures could add extra legs to the EUR/USD upside, fuelling a break above the January 11th high at 1.1542. A sustained move above the last could open doors for a test of 1.1563/72 (200-DMA/ multi-month tops) and 1.1600 (round number).

On the flip side, a bigger-than-expected drop in the annualized reading could drag the spot back to 1.1465/54 (daily pivot/ 5-DMA), below which the next supports are aligned at 1.1428 (20-DMA) and 1.1405 (10-DMA).

Key Notes

Eurozone GDP and trade amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

EUR/USD Forecast: Bulls likely to target Jan. swing highs, eyeing Euro-zone GDP figures

US-DE 10-Yr Yield Spread Technical Analysis: spread could drop 10 bps in EUR-positive manner

About Eurozone Q4 Prelim flash GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. Usually, a rising trend has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

Full Article

Thursday 31st January: US dollar under pressure; reclaims 95.30 to the downside on dovish FOMC.
Thursday 31st January: US dollar under pressure; reclaims 95.30 to the downside on dovish FOMC.

Thursday 31st January: US dollar under pressure; reclaims 95.30 to the downside on dovish FOMC.

20989   January 31, 2019 15:03   ICMarkets   Market News  

EUR/USD:

Wednesday’s market spent a large portion of its day meandering beneath January’s opening level at 1.1445 on the H4 timeframe, despite German prelim CPI figures reporting a better-than-expected month, and ADP non-farm employment change out of the US also thumping market estimates.

On the much awaited FOMC rate decision holding pat in recent hours, dovish tweaks in the latest FOMC statement and Fed’s Powell stance shifting more dovish, the greenback fell sharply, printing fresh lows at 95.25. Dollar selling boosted demand for the euro, lifting the EUR/USD to session highs just north of the 1.15 handle before mildly paring gains into the closing bell.

Daily players nudged above its resistance level priced in at 1.1455 (now acting support), potentially exposing supply coming in at 1.1622-1.1573 that converges closely with channel resistance (extended from the high 1.1472). Weekly price also overthrew nearby resistance at 1.1465. In the event this triggers a round of continuation buying, upside appears free until a resistance area drawn from 1.1717-1.1862 enters the fold.

Areas of consideration:

Having seen H4 sellers fade 1.15 after tripping stops above the large green H4 supply at 1.1489, today’s movement could witness a retracement towards January’s opening level mentioned above at 1.1445. This level, given its close connection to daily support at 1.1455 and weekly resistance at 1.1465, likely contains active buyers.

Whether traders feel 1.1445 warrants additional confirmation before identifying it as valid support is, of course, down to the individual trader. Waiting for bullish candlestick confirmation, according to our research team, is worth considering, however, as the pattern helps provide entry and stop parameters to work with around the support.

Today’s data points: EUR Prelim Flash GDP q/q; German Buba President Weidmann Speaks; US Employment Cost Index q/q; Chicago PMI.

GBP/USD:

Brexit jitters capped upside Wednesday, despite the dollar’s recent collapse on the back of latest FOMC movement. H4 sellers entered the fold out of the resistance area coming in at 1.3150-1.3121, following an FOMC-induced rally through orders around 1.31.

H4 structure, as you can probably see, is restricted. The noted H4 resistances mentioned above are holding buyers at bay, while to the downside, a nearby steep trend line support is seen (extended from the low 1.2373). Beyond this barrier, limited support is visible until key figure 1.30 enters the mix.

In addition to the above, higher-timeframes areas also offer a mixed view. Weekly price action is seen engaging with the lower boundary of supply drawn from 1.3472-1.3204. Tailed closely by a 2018 yearly opening level at 1.3503, the current supply, which already capped upside successfully once already in October 2018, houses a healthy chance of repeating history here. A closer reading of the market, however, reveals recent selling pressured price action towards a support area coming in at 1.3072-1.2984, which has held ground thus far. The important thing to consider here is the daily area fuses nicely with the steep H4 trend line support mentioned above, as well as the 1.30 handle.

Areas of consideration:

According to our technical studies of all three timeframes, neither a long nor short appears attractive at the moment. Irrespective of the direction one selects, you’ll face opposing structure. For that reason, opting to remain on the sidelines, at least from a medium-term perspective, may be the best path to take right now.

Today’s data points: US Employment Cost Index q/q; Chicago PMI.

AUD/USD:

The Australian dollar rose in reply to a dovish FOMC Wednesday, building on recent gains to a session high of 0.7273.

Through the simple lens of a technical trader, the H4 candles destroyed offers around 0.72 and concluded the day mildly trimming gains south of 0.7274: a resistance level. What’s interesting here is H4 price also finalised a bearish ABCD pattern (black arrows) at 0.7264. A rotation lower from this angle has 0.72 to target, shadowed closely by a trend line resistance-turned support (extended from the high 0.7235). Another key thing to note on the H4 scale is the RSI indicator is seen displaying a divergence/overbought reading.

On a wider perspective, nevertheless, the pair reflects more of a bullish stance. Weekly flow, thanks to yesterday’s buying, took out resistance at 0.7199: the 2017 yearly opening level and perhaps unlocked the pathway north towards notable resistance at 0.7371. The story on the daily timeframe has the pair cycling around the top limit of its supply stationed at 0.7246-0.7178. This move likely filled stop-loss orders from a large portion of traders short here and filled a number of breakout buyers here, too. The next port of call beyond these walls falls in at a Quasimodo resistance level at 0.7338.

Areas of consideration:

Assuming the higher-timeframe analysis is accurate, selling H4 structure is difficult towards 0.72. Should the market chalk up a bearish candlestick signal from this neighbourhood (entry/stop parameters can be defined according to this pattern), however, it may be worth the risk, as long as risk/reward parameters are correctly factored into the trade.

Directly above the H4 resistance mentioned above at 0.7274, traders might also want to note possible selling pressure waiting around the 0.73 handle.

Today’s data points: US Employment Cost Index q/q; Chicago PMI.

USD/JPY:

H4 sellers elbowed their way into the spotlight Wednesday, following a retest at the underside of January’s opening level at 109.68 in the shape of a bearish pin-bar formation. In one fell swoop, fuelled by a dovish FOMC, the USD/JPY sank to a two-week low south of the 109 handle. What’s also notable from a technical viewpoint is the recently completed AB=CD bullish pattern (black arrows) around 109.

Although we have support establishing itself on the H4 timeframe, buying could prove troublesome for some traders having seen daily flow display scope for further selling towards demand coming in at 107.77-108.52 by way of a bearish engulfing formation. What’s also interesting is weekly price shows room to press as far south as support at 108.13 (positioned within the parapets of the current daily demand).

Areas of consideration:

With stop-loss orders either tucked beneath the H4 161.8% Fibonacci ext. point at 108.66 or yesterday’s low 108.80, there’s a high probability the market will rotate north from 109 towards at least the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance value of the A-D leg (from the AB-CD pattern highlighted above) at 109.27, with the possibility of also testing 109.54: the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance value of the A-D leg. Reasonable risk/reward is available as long as traders adopt sound trade management principles, despite both weekly and daily flow indicating a move to the downside may be in store.

Today’s data points: US Employment Cost Index q/q; Chicago PMI.

USD/CAD:

The US dollar relinquished further ground to the Canadian dollar Wednesday, weighed on by broad-based USD selling, influenced largely by a dovish FOMC, and WTI extending gains above $54.

Technically speaking, recent selling dragged weekly price beyond its support level at 1.3223, opening up downside to additional selling as far south as Quasimodo support at 1.2887. Taking form of a near-full-bodied daily bearish candle, daily price also cleared orders from Quasimodo support at 1.3181 (now acting resistance) and now eyeing notable support priced in at 1.3067.

A closer look at price action on the H4 timeframe highlights yesterday’s precipitous decline, sinking a number of key support levels along the way. Technicians, in particular Harmonic traders, may be interested to note selling formed a nice-looking ABCD bullish pattern, with waves A-B of a similar length to C-D, north of 1.31. According to the research team, it’s possible the H4 candles may continue to press for lower ground to bring in buyers from 1.31, given the 161.8% Fibonacci ext. point is seen ten pips south of this level at 1.3090 (in connection with the current ABCD formation). Finally, it might also be worth taking into account the RSI indicator is trading deeply within oversold territory.

Areas of consideration:

On account of the above, both higher-timeframe charts portend further downside towards at least daily support at 1.3067. The flip side to this is H4 structure shows reasonably strong support off 1.31, which is likely to produce at least a bounce back up to November’s opening level at 1.3158. As round numbers are prone to whipsaws (or stop runs), waiting for a H4 bullish candlestick configuration to form is recommended before pressing the buy button. As long as entry based off the candlestick structure offers more than a 1:1 ratio in terms of risk/reward to 1.3158, this is a high-probability bounce.

Today’s data points: US Employment Cost Index q/q; Chicago PMI; Canadian GDP m/m; Gov. Council Member Wilkins Speaks.

USD/CHF:

The USD/CHF lost momentum a few pips south of 1.0000 (parity) Wednesday, following the release of the much awaited FOMC rate decision, which held pat, as expected.  Despite dovish tweaks in the latest FOMC statement and Fed’s Powell stance shifting more dovish exacerbating downside, the pair wrapped up the day unchanged.

The green area marked on the H4 timeframe between 1.0000 and December’s opening level at 0.9977, once again, held its ground. The research team likes this area due to its relationship with daily structure: the daily resistance level at 0.9986 is seen housed within its limits. Note this level was brought back into the mix yesterday and chalked up a strong bearish pin-bar configuration. It’s also interesting to observe weekly action in the process of constructing its second consecutive bearish pin-bar pattern, positioned south of the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0029.

Further selling out of the H4 green zone at 1.0000/0.9977 has the 0.99 handle to target, which happens to merge nicely with H4 trend line resistance-turned support (extended from the high 1.0008).

Areas of consideration:

The point at which the 0.99 handle fuses with the H4 trend line resistance-turned support mentioned above (yellow) has ‘bounce’ written all over it. We also like the nearby 38.2% Fibonacci support value at 0.9887 hovering nearby the level. In fact, this could be used to determine stop-loss placement for longs off 0.99.

For conservative traders concerned regarding the market’s position on the higher timeframes, waiting for additional confirmation to form off 0.99 may be an idea. However, it must be stressed a bounce is all we feel will take shape from 0.99, therefore drilling down to the lower timeframes and searching for confirming action might be the best path to take in order to keep risk/reward parameters healthy.

Today’s data points: US Employment Cost Index q/q; Chicago PMI.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

US equities advanced north Wednesday, extending Tuesday’s gains and also breaking free from a H4 consolidation (the top edge was a supply zone at 24750-24555, though now represents a support area) that capped upside since the 18th January. Another key point worth making on the H4 timeframe is the recently completed ABCD 127.2% bearish pattern (black arrows) that aligns beautifully with a H4 Quasimodo resistance at 24976 (25001), and the H4 RSI indicator displaying a divergence/overbought reading. Downside from this angle has two targets, according to traditional ABCD formations: the 38.2% Fibonacci support at 24745 and the 61.8% Fibonacci support at 24541, both set using the A-D legs. Note the two Fibs mark either side of the current H4 support area.

While H4 action appears poised to hit the brakes and reverse, higher-timeframe structure suggests gains are on the horizon. Weekly flow is establishing a floor above its 2018 yearly opening level at 24660. Further buying from this point could stretch as far north as Quasimodo resistance at 26182. Recent buying on the daily timeframe engulfed supply at 24842-24538, unlocking the door towards nearby trend line resistance (taken from the high 26939.

Areas of consideration:

Although selling the H4 Quasimodo resistance at 24976 places traders against higher-timeframe flow, a bounce lower, in view of its surrounding H4 confluence from an ABCD pattern, is likely to at least reach the 38.2% Fibonacci support at 24745 (effectively the top edge of the H4 support area at 24750).

In the event we break for higher ground, however, a long on the retest of 24976 is an option, targeting the daily trend line resistance mentioned above, followed by December’s opening level at 25586 on the H4 timeframe.

Today’s data points: US Employment Cost Index q/q; Chicago PMI.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Up 1.20% on the week thus far and up 0.63% Wednesday, bullion is in fine form this week against a waning greenback.

As underlined in yesterday’s report, weekly price recently conquered its 2018 yearly opening level at 1302.5, possibly freeing the runway north towards resistance marked at 1357.6. The key observation on the daily timeframe is price action shaking hands with supply priced in at 1332.6-1322.3. Note this supply area held price action lower in early May of 2018, proving its worth as a base for sellers.

Although we’re technically trading from daily supply right now, H4 supply at 1322.3-1317.2, a smaller base glued to the lower edge of the daily supply, suffered an upside breach following latest FOMC movement triggering a USD selloff. This potentially cleared sellers out of the H4 supply and opened up the path towards nearby H4 resistance at 1325.4.

Areas of consideration:

Having seen daily supply enter the mix, along with a H4 resistance level seen close by, the research team notes a pullback could be in store before continuing north, as suggested on the weekly timeframe. Should the market put in a retracement and break 1308.9 (yesterday’s low) to test daily support at 1307.7; this could, on the back of additional candlestick confirmation (entry/stop parameters defined according to this pattern) be an ideal location to join the uptrend, ultimately targeting weekly resistance highlighted above at 1357.6.

The use of the site is agreement that the site is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute advice in any form in the furtherance of any trade or trading decisions.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability with regard to financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site. The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site.

IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

Full Article

Germany Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -4.3%, below expectations (-0.6%) in December
Germany Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -4.3%, below expectations (-0.6%) in December

Thursday 31st January: Asian markets gain as Fed signals slowdown in rate hikes
Thursday 31st January: Asian markets gain as Fed signals slowdown in rate hikes

Thursday 31st January: Asian markets gain as Fed signals slowdown in rate hikes

20987   January 31, 2019 14:53   ICMarkets   Market News  

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.11%, Shanghai Composite down 0.07%, Hang Seng up 0.88%, ASX down 0.37%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1318.70 (+0.67%), Silver at $16.01 (+0.53%), Brent Oil at $62.08 (+0.88%), WTI Oil at $54.59 (+0.66%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 2.683, UK 10-year yield at 1.258, Germany 10-year yield at 0.185

News & Data:

  • (CNY) Manufacturing PMI 49.5 vs 49.3 expected
  • (USD) Federal Funds Rate <2.50% vs <2.50% expected
  • (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 213K vs 180K expected
  • (GBP) Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.8B vs 4.3B expected
  • (EUR) German Prelim CPI m/m -0.80% vs -0.90% expected
  • BoJ’s Amamiya: Fed policy that keeps US economy strong is good for Japan’s economy too
  • Fitch affirms New Zealand at AA; outlook stable

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are higher on Thursday following the overnight gains on Wall Street after the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as expected and also said it will be patient regarding further rate hikes.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted in his press conference that the “case for raising rates has weakened somewhat.” Investors also digested data showing that China’s manufacturing activity contracted for a second straight month in January.

The mainland Chinese markets rose in the morning session, before swaying into the red later in the day. The Shanghai composite trading flat and the Shenzhen component lost 0.63%. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 0.88 percent. Elsewhere in Asia, the Nikkei 225 and Topix in Japan saw gains of 1.11 percent and 1.08 percent, respectively, as shares of Japanese conglomerate Softbank Group jumped more than 4.7 percent. In Australia, the ASX 200 traded lower by 0.37% although the sectors traded mixed.

In currencies, the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stretched the previous day’s losses and slipped to a three-week low of 95.204. The greenback was slipped about 0.3 percent to a two-week low of 108.695 yen. The pound was a shade higher at $1.3127 , given some reprieve after slipping earlier in the week when British lawmakers voted down a proposal in parliament that could have prevented a potentially chaotic “no-deal” Brexit.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield extended its decline to as far as 2.674 percent, its lowest since Jan. 14. Oil prices rose after U.S. government data showed signs of tightening supply and as investors remained concerned about supply disruptions following U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry.

Upcoming Events:

  • 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Spanish Flash GDP q/q
  • 11:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Prelim Flash GDP q/q
  • 02:30 PM GMT – (CAD) GDP m/m
  • 02:30 PM GMT – (CAD) RMPI m/m
  • 02:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core PCE Price Index m/m
  • 02:30 PM GMT – (USD) Employment Cost Index q/q
  • 02:30 PM GMT – (USD) Personal Spending m/m
  • 03:45 PM GMT – (USD) Chicago PMI
  • 05:00 PM GMT – (EUR) German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
  • 06:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
  • &more…

Full Article

Eurozone GDP and trade amongst market movers today – Danske Bank
Eurozone GDP and trade amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

Eurozone GDP and trade amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

20986   January 31, 2019 14:53   FXStreet   Market News  

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that the US-China high-level trade talks continue today and are going to be in focus today.

Key Quotes

“Look out for any statements from the two sides tonight when the negotiations conclude. We believe we will see some progress in areas like intellectual property rights and technology transfer, where China has already laid out new legislation that it aims to pass at the annual People’s National Congress in March. Enforcement will be one of the tricky issues in the talks.”

“In the euro area, Q4 GDP is expected to show an unchanged meagre growth rate of 0.2% q/q. If so, it will be the weakest performance over two quarters since 2013. Although temporary effects from German car sector bottlenecks explain some of the growth drag, the overall economic environment, with a Chinese slowdown, Brexit and fragile risk sentiment in financial markets, also weigh on growth prospects. In light of the latest months’ disappointing industrial production data and falling sentiment indicators, we do not believe the euro area economy picked up speed in the past quarter.”

“In the US, we will get initial jobless claims, which fell to a new cycle low last week. The US Employment Cost Index for Q4 is likely to add to the picture of rising wage costs. Chicago PMI is set to correct lower as it is still at a much higher level than other regional surveys and ISM manufacturing.”

Full Article

US-DE 10-Yr Yield Spread Technical Analysis: spread could drop 10 bps in EUR-positive manner
US-DE 10-Yr Yield Spread Technical Analysis: spread could drop 10 bps in EUR-positive manner

US-DE 10-Yr Yield Spread Technical Analysis: spread could drop 10 bps in EUR-positive manner

20985   January 31, 2019 14:33   FXStreet   Market News  

The spread between the US and German (DE) 10-year bond yields fell to 248 basis points (bps) earlier today – the lowest level since Jan. 15 – and could slide further to the recent low of 239 bps, according to technical charts. 

So, it seems safe to say that for EUR/USD, the path of least resistance is to the higher side. 

Daily chart

As seen above, the yield differential closed at 252 basis points on Tuesday, confirming a rising wedge breakdown. That pattern usually accelerates the preceding bearish trend. 

Therefore, the yield spread could soon revisit the Jan. 4 low of 239 basis points. Supporting the bearish case is the below-50 reading on the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) and the death cross (bearish crossover between the 50- and 200-day moving averages). 

Trend: bearish (positive for EUR/USD)
 

Full Article

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: At 3-week highs, minor pullback likely before further gains
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: At 3-week highs, minor pullback likely before further gains

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: At 3-week highs, minor pullback likely before further gains

20984   January 31, 2019 14:03   FXStreet   Market News  

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1508 – the highest level since Jan. 11 – on the back of dovish Fed and could rise further toward the Jan. 10 high of 1.1570, albeit after a minor pullback, as the short duration charts are reporting overbought conditions. 

Hourly chart

  • As seen above, the RSI is holding in overbought territory above 70.0, validating bull exhaustion signaled by the long upper shadows attached to the previous two hourly candles. 

15-min chart

  • The RSI on the 15-min chart is not confirming higher highs seen in EUR/USD. Put simply, the indicator has diverged in favor of the bears. The pair, therefore, could fall back to 1.1480 before resuming the post-Fed rally. 

Trend: Bullish but minor pullback likely
 

EUR/USD

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.1508
    Today Daily change: 27 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.24%
    Today Daily Open: 1.1481
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1422
    Daily SMA50: 1.1393
    Daily SMA100: 1.1446
    Daily SMA200: 1.1568
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.1502
    Previous Daily Low: 1.1406
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1418
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1289
    Previous Monthly High: 1.1486
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1269
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1466
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1443
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1424
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1367
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1327
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.152
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.156
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1617

 

Full Article

FOMC: Dovish reaction function – TDS
FOMC: Dovish reaction function – TDS

FOMC: Dovish reaction function – TDS

20983   January 31, 2019 13:53   FXStreet   Market News  

Analysts at TD Securities explain that based on Fed Chair Powell’s comments at his January press conference, the FOMC has pivoted in a determined way to a more dovish position on both interest rates and the balance sheet. 

Key Quotes

“As a result, we are now shifting our expectation for balance sheet runoff to conclude in June, with one more rate hike this year (and this cycle) to 2.75% in September.”

“We expect USD softness to extend but with G3 central banks extricating themselves from the policy limelight, differentiation will be key. Indeed, the EUR remains directionally conflicted, leaving the JPY as the default “anti-USD” and hedge for an uncertain outlook. We expect USDJPY to grind lower but to keep within established ranges. The “Powell Put” has been firmly planted however, which should help keep risk conditions supported for now, and having us look for AUD to tactically extend gains on the crosses.”

Full Article

Oil jumps to highest since Nov. 21 as Saudi cut supplies to US
Oil jumps to highest since Nov. 21 as Saudi cut supplies to US

Oil jumps to highest since Nov. 21 as Saudi cut supplies to US

20982   January 31, 2019 13:33   FXStreet   Market News  

  • Black gold jumped to multi-week highs yesterday, possibly due to bullish EIA report. 
  • Record US oil output could limit upside in the near-term. 

Oil is solidly bid for a third day, having clocked 10-week highs yesterday. 

WTI oil is currently trading 0.78 percent higher on the day at $54.60 per barrel. Meanwhile, brent is changing hands at $62.09. 

Both benchmarks picked up a strong bid yesterday, with WTI rising to $54.90 – a level last seen on Nov. 21 – after the EIA reported that US imports from Saudi Arabia fell by more than half from the previous week to 442,000 barrels per day (bpd). 

That was also the second lowest level in weekly data going back to 2010, ANZ bank said, according to a Reuters report. 

Bullish pressures were also accentuated by the fact that the weekly US oil inventory build was much lower than expected. The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, had predicted a 2.1-million-barrel build. The inventories, however, increased by 919,000 barrels. 

Add to that, the Fed’s dovish turn and the USD sell-off, and the path of least resistance appears to be on the higher side. 

Even so, caution is still the name of the game, as record oil US oil output will likely keep the market oversupplied in the near-term. US crude oil production jumped by more than 2 million bpd last year to a record 11.9 million bpd, according to Reuters. 

Full Article

Forward · Rewind