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GBP/USD sits near 4-1/2-month tops, around mid-1.3100s

60163 July 31, 2020 20:49 FXStreet Market News

Sustained USD selling assisted GBP/USD to gain traction for the tenth consecutive day on Friday.
Growth concerns, fiscal impasse, a steep decline in the US bond yields weighed heavily on the buck.
Technical buying above 1.3100 mark remained supportive; overbought conditions warrant caution.

The GBP/USD pair broke out of its European session consolidation phase and jumped to fresh multi-month tops, around the 1.3160 region in the last hour.

The pair prolonged its recent strong bullish trajectory and continued gaining positive traction for the tenth consecutive session on Friday. The prevalent bearish sentiment surrounding the US dollar was seen as one of the key factors fueling the momentum, which got an additional boost from some technical buying above the 1.3100 mark.

Investors remain worried that the ever-increasing number of coronavirus cases could undermine the US economic recovery. The market concerns resurfaced following the release of the advance US GDP report on Thursday, which showed that the world’s largest economy collapsed by 32.9% annualized pace during the second quarter of 2020.

The greenback was further pressured by a more dovish FOMC statement on Wednesday, the ongoing downfall in the US Treasury bond yields and the impasse over the next round of the US fiscal measures. It is worth reporting that Republicans and Democrats have been struggling to reach a deal ahead of the expiry of some earlier provisions this Friday.

The USD remained depressed and failed to gain any respite following the release of second-tier US economic data – Core PCE Price Index and Personal Income/Spending data. Friday’s US economic docket also features the release of Chicago PMI and Revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment, though is unlikely to provide any meaningful impetus.

With the USD price dynamics turning out to be an exclusive driver of the GBP/USD pair strong move up, bulls seemed rather unaffected by renewed lockdown measures in northwest England. The UK government imposed new restrictions on 4.3 million people in Greater Manchester, parts of West Yorkshire and East Lancashire after the recent rise in new coronavirus cases.

Meanwhile, extremely overbought conditions on short-term charts warrant some caution before placing fresh bullish bets. Nevertheless, the GBP/USD pair seems all set to post strong gains for the second consecutive week – also marking its fourth week of a positive move in the previous five – and record the highest weekly close since late January.

Technical levels to watch

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Nikkei 225: Sharp fall toward June low at 21580/530 – Credit Suisse

60162 July 31, 2020 20:49 FXStreet Market News

The Nikkei is finally showing signs of life with the market moving sharply lower overnight to break below both the 200-day and 63-day averages, turning the focus onto the important 21580/530 low, below which would reinforce the downswing further, economists at Credit Suisse brief.

Key quotes

“The Nikkei moved very sharply lower on Friday, in line with it’s recent completion of an in-range top, with the market now breaking below both the 200-day average and late June low at 21970/940, as well as the 63-day average just below.”

“After trading in a very tight range for much of July, this breakdown now reasserts the potential for a much deeper setback, with more important support seen at the June low and price gap at 21580/530. Below here would likely trigger a move to the 20575 38.2% retracement of the 2020 recovery. This anticipated weakness should be supported by the pronounced weakening we still expect in USD/JPY.”

“Near-term resistance moves to 21895/965, which we would ideally like to see cap the market to maintain the direct downside pressure. Above 22295 would likely leave the market back to trading in a sideways range.”

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US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Next on the downside is located 91.92/80

60161 July 31, 2020 20:45 FXStreet Market News

DXY remains entrenched into the negative territory below 93.00.
The 91.92/80 band emerges as the next key target for bears.

The sell-off in DXY has reached levels last seen in May 2018 in the sub-93.00 zone at the end of the week, leaving the negative stance on the dollar intact in the near-term.

In fact, further downside is increasingly likely in the current context. There is scope for the index to skip back to the Fibo level (of the 2017-2018 drop) at 91.92 ahead of the May 2018 low at 91.80

The negative outlook on the dollar is expected to remain unaltered while below the 200-day SMA, today at 98.02.

DXY weekly chart

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US: Personal Income declines by 1.1% in June, Personal Spending grows by 5.6%

60160 July 31, 2020 20:45 FXStreet Market News

Personal Income in the US fell more than expected in June.
Core PCE Price Index dropped to 0.9% on a yearly basis.

Personal Income in the US declined by 1.1% on a monthly basis in June after contracting by 4.4% (revised from 4.2%) in May, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday. This reading came in worse than the market expectation for a decrease of 0.5%.

Further details of the publication revealed that Personal Spending rose by 5.6% after expanding by 8.2% in May.

Additionally, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, ticked down to 0.9% on a yearly basis from 1%.

Market reaction

The US Dollar Index edged slightly higher after these data and was last seen flat on the day at 92.96.

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Canada Building Permits (MoM) declined to 6.2% in June from previous 20.2%

60159 July 31, 2020 20:45 FXStreet Market News