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US dollar losses are accelerating in an ominous sign today. The latest leg lower came after the Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell to the lowest since May 2020.

The report was littered with angst about tariffs and uncertainty in the real economy. The market is weighing whether all the poor sentiment numbers are truly indicative of a looming economic slowdown and every data point like this undermines the bullish case, particularly after a big bounce in stocks and the dollar last week.

In the bigger picture, the market is struggling to understand the point of tariffs. Is it:

1. To get better trade deals
2. To raise revenue

It can’t be both of those things and comments like this from Trump on the weekend emphasize the revenue side.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was -16.3

• Production +5.1 vs +6.0 prior
• New orders -20.0 vs -0.1 prior
• Capex -0.4 vs -0.6 prior
• Employment -3.9 vs -4.6 prior
• Outlook -28.3 vs -10.7 prior
• Future production +14.8 vs +27.6 prior

34% of firms reported declining new orders.

Comments in the report:

Chemical manufacturing

• It is a very dynamic time. I agree with the approach and need
  to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. so that we have the internal
  capability for national security interests. The ability to forecast and
  to understand consumer confidence drivers to the basic materials,
  construction, automotive markets, etc., are the most difficult we have
  seen since the COVID era.
• Tariff uncertainty and actual impact is likely to be significant for the business and ongoing projects.

Computer and electronic product manufacturing

• This has been a crazy few weeks in the news. We export about 20
  percent of our production. Our largest customers are in the United
  Kingdom and France, but we also export to China and many other
  countries. We import a few raw materials, but this isn’t directly
  significant. The current tariff negotiations are having an effect in
  several ways. We accelerated one order to China to beat the reciprocal
  tariffs, and we expect our China sales to go to zero until the tariff
  situation changes. We are seeing some European customers stock up on
  inventory in anticipation of future tariffs. Most of our U.S. customers
  continue to buy, but we have seen a 25 percent drop in incoming RFQs
  [requests for quotations] in April compared with the average of previous
  months. Assuming this continues, we expect to see roughly a 10–15
  percent decline in sales in May. We believe that this is largely due to
  uncertainty in our customer base driven by the tariff situation and
  potential knock-on effects to the general economy.
• There is really no way to predict anything accurately six
  months out or even six weeks out now for our industry due to the tariff
  and trade uncertainty. Carve-outs for large electronics businesses
  (cellphones and laptops) leaves small business burdened to deal with
  tariffs on our own, which are likely to cause delays, cancellations and
  early product obsolescence on existing products and orders. We have
  already had to turn around and refuse shipments because customers
  cannot afford the tariffs, delaying our ability to build, which will
  eventually lead to job losses. If this continues for any length of
  time, many small companies are likely to be significantly hurt or even
  gone. If we want to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., can we try
  not to kill the companies that can actually help do that before we get
  the chance? Maybe we can think about using a scalpel rather than a
  sledgehammer? The risk we face now is far greater and less understood
  than what we saw during the COVID shutdown. Consumers and businesses
  will limit investment and orders until there is some sense of
  stability, and we have already experienced this with smaller orders and
  delayed orders. It’s chaos right now.
• Please lower interest rates. We need it in order to boost the economy due to the uncertainty and tariffs.
• President Trump, tariffs and maximum business uncertainty [are
  issues affecting our business]. [We see a] probable recession soon.

Fabricated metal product manufacturing

• There is no stability in business, so it is difficult to plan.
  Thus, we are not making commitments for future growth, not knowing if
  or when future growth will exist.
• Our backlog is not building. Bid activity is moderate, but projects are not being released/started.
• There was a temporary supply hiccup in April on a key component; we expect it to resolve in the next month or two.

Food manufacturing

• The current economic environment is confusing. President Trump
  keeps things in turmoil, and we do not know what he will do next. So
  far, import prices for raw materials have not increased. Food service
  and retail sales have maintained their growth projections.
• Chaos at the federal level, tariffs and resulting raw
  ingredient costs, decimation of partner relationships due to canceled
  contracts “for convenience” along with stagflation concerns [are issues
  affecting our business]. DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] is
  needed. The DOGE without a follow-up plan does nothing for the domestic
  tranquility needed (stable arena for business to function within).
• Tariffs and tariff uncertainty are wreaking havoc on our supply lines and capital spending plans.
• It is unknown what effect the tariffs are going to have on the
  general economy. Luckily, we do not import or export many items (except
  for spices), so we are not directly impacted by the contemplated
  tariffs.
• We are still worried about labor price increases due to the trade war and immigration.

Machinery manufacturing

• Nothing is easy. Forecasting is extremely challenging in this
  time of uncertainty. Committing to growth initiatives is
  anxiety-riddled. Helping our employees keep beans on their table and a
  roof over their heads is harder. We believe the direction the current
  administration is leading our country is on target, but the pain to get
  there may be longer and more intense than originally anticipated.
• We are experiencing a strong month and, hopefully, this trend will continue.
• Due to tariffs, we do not know what to expect.

Miscellaneous manufacturing

• There is too much uncertainty all over for any increases [in business] soon.
• Tariffs and the general market have made decisions challenging.
  Items we are only able to source internationally are making our daily
  business decisions difficult. Raw materials have increased, and there
  is not an easy way to pass those increases to our customers.
• Tariffs are causing uncertainty and a reduction in demand for
  our products. We buy all raw materials domestically but are still
  experiencing adverse business climate due to reduction in demand.
• Tariffs may drive us out of business.
• Tariffs [are an issue affecting our business].

Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing

• Tariffs. Tariffs. Tariffs. There was a better way to do this.

Paper manufacturing

• We have seen continued slow order entry now for four months.

Plastics and rubber products manufacturing

• Tariffs are impacting factory input costs significantly.

Primary metal manufacturing

• Capital expenditures are focused on adding new product offerings.
• The aluminum industry is currently in a holding pattern,
  awaiting final decisions on tariffs. If the Section 232 tariffs on
  Mexico and Canada remain in place, it would help level the playing field
  and remove their pricing advantage when selling into the U.S. However,
  if Mexico and Canada continue to receive exemptions—as they have since
  the initial implementation of Section 232 during the first Trump
  administration—it will likely lead to further job losses in our segment
  of the aluminum industry. Our company, for example, has put a
  multimillion-dollar project on hold until we receive clear direction on
  this issue. China is now building aluminum plants in Mexico to avoid
  tariffs if they ship from China. Our company is a proponent of tariffs
  to combat dumping and subsidies other countries are doing for shipments
  into the U.S.

Printing and related support activities

• The tariff issue is a mess, and we are now starting to see
  vendors passing along increases, which we will have to in turn pass
  along to our customers. Because of this, we are very concerned about
  general business activity for the next six to nine months or until these
  trade agreements get worked out.
• The administration’s tariff policy is insanity. It is creating havoc in the manufacturing business.

Textile product mills

• Sales are down, and uncertainty is very high. We import raw
  materials and finished goods and are very nervous about tariff impacts
  (especially China). We will likely need to increase prices, which will
  likely hurt demand/sales. We are expecting to get hit on both the supply
  and demand side. There is a lot of uncertainty.

Transportation equipment manufacturing

• We are unsure of the tariff impact.
• There is too much uncertainty, including a possible recession.
  Interest rates are too high. The Federal Reserve always seems to be
  late for their own party.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Portuguese grid operator — REN — is out with a diagnosis of what happened with the huge power outage today:

• Due to extreme temperature variations in the interior of Spain, there were anomalous oscillations in very high volatge lines, something called ‘induced atmospheric vibration’
• These osculations cause synchronization failures between the electrical systems
• It’s a complex phenomenon and there is a need to rebalance electricity flows internationally, it could take a week to fix

That’s fascinating.

Here is how DeepSeek explains it:

Induced Atmospheric Vibration (IAV) in high-voltage power lines refers to low-frequency oscillations (typically 0.1–10 Hz) caused by corona discharge effects near the conductors. Here’s a brief breakdown:

1. Cause:

   • When high-voltage lines operate near their corona inception threshold, ionization of surrounding air molecules occurs, creating space charges (ions and electrons).

   • Under
     certain conditions (e.g., high humidity, rough conductor surfaces),
     these charges interact with the electric field, generating periodic electrohydrodynamic (EHD) forces.

2. Mechanism:

   • The EHD forces induce pressure waves in the air, causing vibrations in the conductor or nearby objects (e.g., insulators).

   • Unlike aeolian vibration (caused by wind) or galloping (large-amplitude motion), IAV is driven purely by electrical-atmospheric coupling.

3. Effects:

   • Usually low amplitude but can contribute to fatigue over time.

   • May exacerbate other vibration modes or cause audible hum.

4. Mitigation:

   • Smooth conductor surfaces (e.g., polished or coated wires).

   • Optimized voltage gradients to minimize corona.

IAV
is less common than mechanical vibrations but is studied for its unique
electromechanical interactions. …

The vibrations can lead to fatigue cracks and loosened hardware.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

April credit card data from Bank of America doesn’t show a slowdown in US consumer spending. If anything, there was a slight acceleration in early April after tariffs were announced.

1) This could be tariff front-running

2) Drops in consumer confidence haven’t led to less spending

There are certainly reasons to worry about the US and global economy but I think the layoffs need to come, or we need to signs of real inflation before the market wilts.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

From an interview with Reuters:

• In a normal armed conflict, both countries should refrain from using nuclear weapons
• Says would only use nuclear weapons if there is a direct threat to our existence

Great, just great. More war is just what the world needs, especially between a country with 1.4 billion people and another with 250 million.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s election day in Canada and Trump is trying to make it all about him.

Good luck to the Great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the
strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military
power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car,
Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in
size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st.
State of the United States of America. No more artificially drawn line
from many years ago. Look how beautiful this land mass would be. Free
access with NO BORDER. ALL POSITIVES WITH NO NEGATIVES. IT WAS MEANT TO
BE! America can no longer subsidize Canada with the Hundreds of Billions
of Dollars a year that we have been spending in the past. It makes no
sense unless Canada is a State!

It’s going to be a long 4 years in Canada.

Canada votes on Monday: What the polls are saying and what’s at stake for the loonie

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Will suggest to the US to return to zero on all tariffs

Brother, you already are in an open trade war with the US and the Vice President called Europe ‘pathetic’.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• It is a complicated relationship with China
• US has had substantial discussions with Japanese allies on trade
• Chinese exemptions show they want a de-escalation on trade
• Europeans are panicked about strength of euro
• 17 important trading partners have made ‘very good proposals’ to avert US tariffs
• Negotiations with Asian trading partners going very well
• Says he was surprised when markets rallied after remarks at JPMorgan conference, didn’t say anything new

He’s going with “it was the market’s fault” as his defense for telling market-moving information to a private group.

In any case, could be trying to smooth the way for Trump to ease China tariffs by highlighting the exemptions.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Trump sees no red line that would change tariff policy – The Atlantic
• China’s Foreign Ministry: President Xi and Trump did not have call recently
• We are still demanding a full removal of US tariffs, says Japan economy minister
• South Korea says no chance to reach trade deal with US before next presidential election
• What are the interest rate expectations for G8FX?
• ECB’s Villeroy: We still have a margin for rate cuts in Europe
• China president Xi reportedly set for Shanghai visit later this week
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 25 April CHF 451.1 bn vs CHF 448.3 bn prior
• UK April CBI retailing reported sales -8 vs -41 prior
• Strong dollar demand on the cards this month-end – Barclays

Markets:

• JPY leads, CHF lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 1.4 bps to 4.28%
• Gold down 0.8% to $3,293.02
• WTI crude down 0.5% to $62.72
• Bitcoin up 1.8% to $95,458

Amid a lack of developments in the tariffs/trade war, markets are struggling for much direction to start the new week.

The dollar is keeping steadier while the overall risk mood is more tentative for the time being. Over the weekend, Trump kept his focus on the Russia-Ukraine conflict so that is not giving much for broader markets to work with.

The greenback is seeing light changes in the FX space but is still on track for a very poor showing for the whole month of April. USD/JPY might have caught a bounce from 140.00 last week but is still poised to end the month over 4% lower. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is still up over 5% on the month even after backing away from 1.1500 to 1.1340 levels now.

USD/CHF might have also caught a decent bounce back to just above 0.8300 now but is down a little over 6% in April trading thus far.

For today, the changes are not amounting to much as the overall risk mood is also more tentative.

US futures are down slightly as we await more trade headlines from Trump potentially to see what to make of things. For now, China continues to deny any contact whatsoever with the US camp and they are also making sure the world knows that there is no phone call between Trump and Xi on tariffs.

In other markets, gold is down slightly again today and keeping under $3,300 in a bit of a short-term consolidation phase. And as for Treasuries, we are seeing a calmer tone but yields are still much higher since the beginning of the reciprocal tariffs announcement at the start of this month.

Looking to the week ahead, there’s going to be much to focus on with month-end flows in consideration, key tech earnings (Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon), as well as the US jobs report on Friday. All of that to mix with more Trump headlines surely.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Putin declares truce for Victory Day May 7-11th.
• In the event of violations of the ceasefire by Ukraine, Russia will respond.

More:

• Russia once again declares its readiness for peace talks without preconditions.

I don’t think Russia-Ukraine peace deal is that much of a deal for global markets. At margin, it could be negative for oil, but trade negotiations will have a bigger weight.

It will likely be positive for Russian and Ukraine assets though.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 29/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Trump sees no red line that would change tariff policy.

“Trump pushed back on the notion, popular among some Wall Street analysts, that financial turmoil – plummeting markets, the threat of a recession, a weakened dollar – would cause him to roll back his tariff policies.” “It always affects you a little bit” he said, but there’s no red line, no “certain number” at which he would feel compelled to change course.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.