South Korea is saying that they will be aiming to create six or so working groups with the US to discuss tariffs, economic security, and economic cooperation. However, any trade agreement will not come before the presidential election on 3 June.

This looks to be more of a domestic exception but so far, there haven’t been any signs of trade progress moving all too quickly between the US and its supposedly closer allies. Even the initial talks with Japan looked to have gone sideways at best.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese authorities will hold a press conference on Monday to announce further measures to prompt economic growth and employment. Present will be officials from the:

• National Development and Reform Commission
• Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security
• Ministry of Commerce
• People’s Bank of China

Scheduled for 10 Beijing time on Monday, April 28, 2025.

• Which is 0200 GMT and 2200 US Eastern time on Sunday

On Friday China’s ruling politburo missed a statement promising to strengthen support for the real economy

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The week will start off slowly in terms of scheduled economic events, but markets will remain alert to any unexpected announcements from the U.S. administration, particularly regarding potential retaliatory tariffs.

On Monday, Canada will hold its federal election while on Tuesday, in the U.S., we will receive the JOLTS job openings report and the CB consumer confidence Index.

On Wednesday, in Australia the focus will be on inflation data. In the U.S., key releases will include the ADP non-farm employment change, the advance GDP q/q, and the core PCE price index m/m.

On Thursday, the BoJ will release its monetary policy decision while in Europe markets will be closed for Labor Day. In the U.S., data releases will include unemployment claims and the ISM manufacturing PMI.

On Friday, the U.S. labor market will be in focus with the release of average hourly earnings m/m, non-farm employment change, and the unemployment rate.

In the U.S., the consensus for the CB consumer confidence index is 87.4, down from the prior reading of 92.9. Households are increasingly concerned about the impact of tariff-induced price hikes on their spending power, as well as the stock market downturn negatively impacting their investments and savings.

In Australia, the consensus for the CPI q/q is 0.8% vs. the prior 0.2%; for the CPI y/y, it is 2.3% compared to 2.4% previously; and for the trimmed mean CPI q/q, it is 0.6% vs. 0.5% prior. Analysts at Westpac note that, compared to previous quarters, cost-of-living measures such as energy rebates are unlikely to have a significant impact this time.

Meanwhile, the trimmed mean CPI—a key measure of core inflation—is expected to rise by 0.6% for the quarter, bringing the annualized rate down to 2.8%. Momentum in core inflation remains comfortably within the RBA’s target band, though risks to the forecast are tilted slightly to the upside.

The consensus for the U.S. advance GDP q/q is 0.4%, compared to the prior 2.4%. After real GDP rose in recent quarters, fueled by strong consumer spending, expectations for this week’s release are much less optimistic, with the U.S. economy facing a sharp slowdown to just 0.1% annualized growth in Q1 2025.

A surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariff hikes is expected to weigh down on GDP growth, but the inventory buildup will provide some cushion. Consumer spending was soft early in the year but improved in March, helped by better weather and a rise in purchases done before tariffs would impact prices.

Business investment appears poised for a rebound, mainly driven by aircraft orders, although broader capital expenditure remains subdued. Meanwhile, residential investment is expected to stay modest amid ongoing affordability challenges and high inventory levels, analysts from Wells Fargo said.

At this week’s meeting, the BoJ is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.50%, with policymakers opting for caution given the latest mixed economic backdrop.

Growth in Japan remains solid, and inflation continues to exceed the 2.0% target. However, the Bank is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach amid heightened uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and a stronger yen.

Traders will closely monitor the updated economic projections, particularly for any adjustments to inflation and growth forecasts. The BoJ is still expected to deliver a rate hike at some point later this year.

In the U.S., the consensus for the ISM manufacturing PMI is 48.0, down from the prior 49.0. The index has slipped into contractionary territory and is expected to remain there in the near future as manufacturers are facing pressure from elevated interest rates, soft demand and renewed tariff concerns.

Analysts from Wells Fargo note that regional Fed surveys point to weaker new orders and rising input costs, as firms grapple with higher prices for steel, aluminum, and other imported goods. With demand under strain and cost pressures mounting, capital spending and hiring are likely to stay subdued in the near term, keeping manufacturing growth on the back foot.

In the U.S., the consensus for average hourly earnings m/m is 0.3%, unchanged from the prior reading. For non-farm employment change, the forecast is 129K compared to the previous 228K, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%.

The labor market is anticipated to show modest growth. Heightened uncertainty from shifting trade policies and federal funding freezes has cooled hiring appetite, as reflected in declining job postings and weakening service sector indicators. However despite softer demand for new workers, layoffs remain subdued, keeping the unemployment rate stable.

This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.

Shanghai is seen as the main financial hub in China, so the visit is one that could take on some importance. Even if not from what he will be saying during the visit but at least in terms of the optics. It comes at a time when US and China are still locking horns on the trade front. Reuters is reporting that he will be making the visit later this week.

Just be on the lookout in case there will be comments from the state media on Xi’s visit here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The narrative of Trump versus the world continues to dominate the market landscape as we look towards the end of April. While he was busy over the weekend putting in focus on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is leaving broader markets wanting in the new week expecting some new development on tariffs/trade. And that’s where we are at right now.

US-China trade continues to be stifled in the meantime and that’s one major sticking point. Besides that, we’re also waiting on breakthroughs from other countries in striking a compromise on tariffs. To that, there’s still no avail as well.

And with each passing day, the world economy continues to bleed out and we move one step closer to the hard data translating to pain in economic data. That will definitely be more evident in the next three to four weeks especially. Here are some posts to keep in mind in all of this:

• US April Philly Fed business index -26.4 vs +2.0 expected
• Eyes on the global freight market as ocean bookings plunge
• People in the freight industry are sounding the alarm
• What happens to the US economy when freight dries up
• Financial Times on “Demand slump fuelled by Trump tariffs hits US ports and air freight”

For today, the focus will be to look towards any progress on the trade front once again. US futures are down amid some disappointment after getting their hopes up last week. Will that continue into the new week?

On a quiet day like this, headline risks will take center stage. But just be aware that there is at least the Canadian elections to watch out for.

0800 GMT – SNB total sight deposits w.e. 25 April1000 GMT – UK April CBI retailing reported sales

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US Stocks Rally into Weekend – Nasdaq up 1.25%

US stock markets closed out last week on a positive footing as they rose again in trading on Friday, with optimism increasing again that trade deals will occur. The Dow edged just 0.05% higher by the close, but tech stocks helped to pull the S&P up 0.74%, and the Nasdaq up 1.26%, to better levels. The dollar also edged higher against the majors, with the havens again hit the hardest, the DXY up 0.06% to 99.47. Treasury yields took a dip, the 2-year dropping 4.9 basis points to 3.748% and the 10-year off 8 basis points to close out at 4.235%. Oil prices pushed higher on Friday in quieter trading conditions, Brent up 0.48% to $66.87 and WTI up 0.37% to $63.02, whilst gold dropped on trade hopes, down 0.85% on the day to close out the week at $3,318.22 an ounce.

Magnificent 7 in Focus this Week

US stocks have experienced a strong rebound after suffering early in the month to recover nearly all of their losses on the indices; however, these moves will likely be put to the test in the coming days with some key members of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ due to report earnings. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple are all due to update the market this week, and a consistent trend from these major players could see strong moves in the market. Last week’s results were generally mixed, and if that pattern continues, expect indices to remain bid on growth hopes; however, if we see a strong bias, either higher or lower, then this could set a new trend for the coming weeks.

Quiet Calendar Day to Kick off a Busy Week

It should be another interesting week ahead for global financial markets, with many investors hoping that we see the focus moving away from pure trade talk and back over to fundamentals. Investors will likely use today’s trading sessions to assess the plethora of recent updates we have had to plan longer-term positions. There is little on the schedule for the first two trading sessions of the day, and it is a similar story in the US session, although Canadian Federal Elections will keep those north of the border on their toes if voting doesn’t go as planned. This does change as we progress through the week, with big US jobs, inflation numbers, and earnings reports due, as well as the Bank of Japan rate call, which could lift volatility again.

The post General Market Analysis – 28/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 100.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 98.32

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 101.77
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1192

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 1.1051
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1512

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 164.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 160.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 166.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 0.8499

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8431
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8607
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction:  Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3110

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 1.3005
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3415
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 192.12

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 186.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 195.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8400

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 0.8089
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8604
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 145.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 140.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 147.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3946

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum. 

1st support: 1.3815
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4093
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6328
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.6205

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6454
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5912
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.5820

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6025

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 40,856.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 38,100.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 42,588.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 22,423.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 21,505.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,369.25
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,528.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 5,151.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,778.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 94,852.52
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 88,147.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 106,444.58
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1,808.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum. 

1st support: 1,451.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as swing-low support indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,102.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction:  Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 65.64

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 57.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 71.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,237.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 3,127.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,424.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 28th April 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Consumer sentiment dropped sharply in February as reported by the University of Michigan, tumbling to 52.2 from 57.0 in the previous month. Sentiment fell for a fourth consecutive month – the lowest since July 2022 – as consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead. In addition, labour market expectations remained bleak as consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warning signs perceived by consumers. Despite plunging sentiment, the dollar index (DXY) notched its first weekly gain in five weeks as it closed at 99.58 on Friday.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Japanese banks will be closed in observance of Showa Day so the yen could face lower liquidity and irregular volatility during the Asia session. Meanwhile, demand for safe-haven currencies could remain elevated – USD/JPY was sliding toward 143.50 at the beginning of this session.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

Dogged by uncertainty over trade talks between the U.S. and China clouding the outlook for global growth, investors and traders are treading cautiously – any announcements out of the White House likely to function as the latest catalyst for financial markets. Meanwhile, demand for the greenback rekindled last week as the DXY climbed above 99 and the upward momentum looks to have spilled over on the first trading day of this week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

Spot prices for gold recorded a new high of $3,500.02/oz last Tuesday before tumbling 5.2% to close at $3,318.62/oz. This precious metal fell under $3,300 as Asian markets came online, possibly fuelled by a bout of profit-taking after a strong run-up since mid-April.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Anzac Day (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Australia’s financial markets and banks will resume operation after a three-day weekend following the Anzac Day holiday on Friday. The Aussie rallied strongly last week, coming within a whisker of 0.6450 before running out of steam. Demand for this currency pair appeared to wane during Monday’s Asia session, as it edged toward 0.6350.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

New Zealand’s financial markets and banks will resume operation after a three-day weekend following the Anzac Day holiday on Friday. The Kiwi briefly surged past the threshold of 0.6000 last Tuesday before settling around 0.5960 last Friday. Demand for this currency looks to be tapering off slightly as it dipped under 0.5950 during Monday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Showa Day (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japanese banks will be closed in observance of Showa Day so the yen could face lower liquidity and irregular volatility during the Asia session. Meanwhile, demand for safe-haven currencies could remain elevated – USD/JPY was sliding toward 143.50 at the beginning of this session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 1 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

After rallying strongly last Monday to come within a whisker of 1.1600, the Euro ran out of steam as it tumbled 1.9% to close at 1.1359 on Friday. Overhead pressures are building for this currency pair as traders look to be engaging in profit-taking following a robust surge over the past four weeks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 April to mark the sixth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.40%, 2.65% and 2.25% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track with both headline and core inflation declining in March while services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.
• Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• In particular, the Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 5 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc remained elevated as UDS/CHF edged toward 0.8250 at the beginning of the Asia session. With uncertainty over trade talks between the U.S. and China clouding the economic outlook, investors remain cautious.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Cable gapped lower at today’s open, dipping under 1.3300 before filling this void. However, demand for this currency pair appears to be waning as it edged lower as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Federal Election (All Day)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Canadian voters head to the polls to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament – this will be the first election to use a new 343-seat electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census. Mark Carney, incumbent Prime Minister and the leader of the Liberal party, will be looking to secure another term for his party. Traders should brace themselves for higher volatility in the Loonie, especially if there is a major upset for the incumbents.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope – Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Headwinds remain firmly in place for crude oil, dogged by uncertainty over trade talks between the U.S. and China clouding the outlook for global growth and fuel demand, while the prospect of OPEC+ raising its supply cast more gloom. WTI gapped higher to open at $63.50 per barrel, initially rising toward the $64 mark before reversing to decline rapidly – a drop below $63 would come as no surprise.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• ICYMI – Bezos-backed start-up launches EV truck for less than $US20,000. Tesla killer?
• AUD traders note – RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Kent speaking tomorrow
• China’s vice commerce minister (more): Exports steady in April, will expand imports
• PBOC deputy governor says will cut RRR, interest rates, at an appropriate time
• China Gold Association reports gold consumption fell in Q1
• China’s news conference on boosting the economy and jobs has begun
• China’s State Council approved 10 new nuclear reactors over the weekend
• Toyota says it was exploring a potential investment in the key parts supplier – buyout
• More on Japan’s top currency official denying Bessent supports a stronger yen
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2043 (vs. estimate at 7.2828)
• China Securities Daily says PBoC is seen cutting the RRR and interest rates in Q2
• Yen traders note – Japan is on holiday Tuesday
• Mr Yen says Completely untrue about media report that Bessent said stronger yen preferable
• Bank of Japan to “hit pause” on rate hikes at this week’s meeting – Trump tariffs cited
• More on the the Financial Times Trump Slump for US transport firms
• UK Times says “Trump’s tariffs are set to drive down UK economic growth”, circa 50% cut
• Weekend data: China’s YTD industrial profits rose 0.8% y/y in Q1 (prior -0.3%)
• Trump says he think Ukraine ready to concede Crimea to Putin (contradicting Zelensky)
• US Ag sec says talking to 100 countries every day on trade, including China
• Trump says ‘confines of a deal’ are there on Ukraine / Russia
• US equity index futures are set to open for the week’s trade at the top of the hour
• U.S. Treas Sec Bessent didn’t back Trump assertion that China tariff talks were under way
• Heads up for a China news conference today – to address promoting growth, employment
• Financial Times on “Demand slump fuelled by Trump tariffs hits US ports and air freight”
• ECB’s Kazaks urges caution on further European Central Bank rate cuts
• ECB’s Simkus says the Bank could lower interest rates at least two more times this year
• Trade ideas thread – Monday, 28 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 28 April 2025

Weekend:

• Walmart has notified Chinese suppliers to resume shipping goods – report
• ECB policymakers warm up to a June cut — sources report
• Canada votes on Monday: What the polls are saying and what’s at stake for the loonie

We
have had some market swings during the session here to open the new
week, but not to the extent that we have become accustomed to.

USD/JPY
traded above 143.85 (plenty of talk of offers gathering ahead of 144
seemed accurate today) and to lows under 143.40. Japan’s top
currency official, vice finance minister Atsushi Mimura, put in a
good deal of effort into denying that US
Treasury Secretary Bessent supported
a strong yen.

EUR,
AUD, NZD, GBP all traded in ranges and as I update are little net
changed on the day.

USD/CAD
is a little higher as we head into Monday’s Canadian election where
polls indicate a comeback win for Carney’s party. Let’s see if
the polls get it correct.

From
China we had a news conference from the National Development and Reform
Commission (China’s ‘state planner’), the Ministry of Human Resources
and Social Security, the Ministry of Commerce, and the People’s
Bank of China. It outlined further measures to prompt economic growth
and employment. As is usually the case nitty gritty details were not
discussed.

Separately,
China announced that domestic
gold production grew
1.5% YoY in Q1, while
gold
consumption slumped
nearly 6%.

Most
notable from the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke
with US media on Sunday. Bessent said that while he spoke with his
Chinese counterparts last week during International Monetary Fund
meetings in Washington, tariffs were not mentioned! More
significantly, Bessent refused to back up Trump’s assertion that
Trump had spoken with China’s President Xi:

• “I
  don’t know if President Trump has spoken with President Xi”

Yikes
… lets see how Trumpo responds to being thrown under the bus by
Bessent!

US
equity index futures have traded a little lower in Sunday evening (US
time) trade, barely denting their big surge on Friday though.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI, an EV pick up launched by Slate Auto, a firm backed in part by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos:

• starting price point US$20,000 after federal EV incentives
• made in the USA
• two-door version can be changed into a 5-seat SUV
• base model is about two-thirds the size of a Chevy Silverado EV and just a little smaller than the size of a Ford Maverick
• payload capacity of 1,400 pounds compared the Maverick’s 1500 pounds
• maximum range of 150 miles on a single charge
• option for a longer-range battery pack that could offer up to 240 miles
• delivery to customers expected late 2026

Info via NBC.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese authorities press conference announce further measures to prompt economic growth and employment. Present are officials from the:

• National Development and Reform Commission (China’s ‘state planner’)
• Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security
• Ministry of Commerce
• People’s Bank of China

Earlier:

• China exports withstand pressure
• PBOC deputy governor says will cut RRR, interest rates, at an appropriate time

More now,
China Vice Commerce Minister Sheng:

• China to accelerate reform to integrate domestic, foreign trade
• to assist companies in broadening overseas market
• to enhance trade financing assistance for exporters
• to establish credit tool for large equipment export
• to keep expanding imports, open up

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China Gold Association reports gold consumption fell in Q1

• down 5.96% to 290,492 metric tons
• Q1 domestic mined gold output reached 87.243 tons, up 1.49% y/y.
• Gold ETF holdings in China in Q1 increased by 23.47 tons, up 327.73% y/y

Headlines via Reuters

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.