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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke with US media on Sunday. Bessent said that while he spoke with his Chinese counterparts last week during International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, tariffs were not mentioned!

Further in the interview Bessent refused to back up Trump’s assertion that Trump had spoken with China’s President Xi:

• “I don’t know if President Trump has spoken with President Xi”

Bessent went on to comment on why Xi had not spoken with Trump:

• “I think they’re playing to a different audience.”

Last week Bessent said tariff negotiations with Beijing would be a “slog”. He didn’t float any timetable.

***

Bessent is showing himself as one of the few (the only?) of Trump’s officials who is game enough to dispute Trump’s lack of veracity in public.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese authorities will hold a press conference on Monday to announce further measures to prompt economic growth and employment. Present will be officials from the:

• National Development and Reform Commission
• Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security
• Ministry of Commerce
• People’s Bank of China

Scheduled for 10 Beijing time on Monday, April 28, 2025.

• Which is 0200 GMT and 2200 US Eastern time on Sunday

On Friday China’s ruling politburo missed a statement promising to strengthen support for the real economy

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Financial Times with the info:

The Financial Times is gated, but in brief:

• The Port of Los Angeles, the main route of entry for goods from
  China, expects scheduled arrivals in the week starting May 4 to be a
  third lower than a year before, while airfreight handlers have also
  reported sharp falls in bookings.
• Bookings for standard 20-foot shipping containers from China to the
  US were 45 per cent lower than a year earlier by mid-April
• cost of access to the US market would be the highest since the
  1930s

The FT article has much more detail, if you can access it here is the link.

***

There may be some hop on the horizon:

• Walmart has notified Chinese suppliers to resume shipping goods – report

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The economic calendar is, as the headline says, empty.

UK house prices is the first item listed for 0600 GMT on Monday, April 28, 2025 (0200 US Eastern time).

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there.

Indicative rates, only a little change from late Friday:

• EUR/USD 1.1366
• USD/JPY 146.34
• GBP/USD 1.3297
• USD/CHF 0.8299
• USD/CAD 1.3872 … an awful mass murder in Vancouver over the weekend
• AUD/USD 0.6384
• NZD/USD 0.5963

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Volatility did seem to dip slightly across financial markets last week in a holiday-shortened trading period, although the propensity for moves off geopolitical updates remains high.
The macroeconomic calendar picks up considerably in the week ahead, with US data coming back to the fore alongside some key updates from other jurisdictions, including a key interest rate call from the Bank of Japan.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It’s a quiet start to the trading week on Monday, with little on the schedule to move the dial through most of the sessions, although Canadian dollar traders will keep a close eye on political developments with the Federal Election taking place.

Asian markets have little scheduled again; however, Japanese markets are on holiday, so liquidity will be slightly lower than usual. It’s a similar story in Europe, with just Spanish Flash CPI and GDP numbers of any real note, but things look set to heat up on the US open. We have the first of a few jobs numbers for the week out early in the day in the form of the JOLTS Job Openings data, as well as the CB Consumer Sentiment data release.

It is a busier day on the event calendar again on Wednesday, with the initial focus in Asia on Australian markets for the CPI data before it moves north to China for Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing data releases. Germany will be in focus shortly after the London open with Prelim CPI data due out before we hit the US session and several data releases. The US ADP Non-Farm numbers are due just before the Advance GDP data and Employment Cost Index numbers, with the Canadian GDP update also being released. Later in the session, we have the Fed’s favoured inflation number, the Core PCE Price Index numbers, out before Pending Homes data.

Thursday markets could be lively, with some key updates coming alongside May Day holidays in several major centres. The major focus for the Asian market will be the Bank of Japan’s rate call before we hit the European day and thinner liquidity conditions, with France, Germany, and Italy all on holiday. The New York day once again has some key data drops, with the usual Weekly Unemployment Claims numbers out before the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices data releases.

Non-Farms day has come around again, and it looks like the usual set-up, with little of note scheduled for the first two sessions of the day before we hit the US session and the big data drop. As always, the headline Non-Farm Employment Change number will dominate the initial market move, but the Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate are also released at the same time, and they will influence moves as well.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 27 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Last week, major US retailers including Walmart, Target and Home Depot met with the White House. Shortly afterwards, the stock market turned around, leading to an extremely strong week in the S&P 500.

Today, Hong Kong based Ming Pao (a reputable newspaper) reports from the Canton Fair, which is an import/export fair and reported that:

• Walmart has already notified Chinese suppliers to resume shipping goods that had been temporarily suspended due to the tariff war
• several exporters independently mentioned it
• all tariffs are paid by the buyer (Americans)
• A ceramics shipper said only seasonal products are being resumed

It’s hard to shake the sense that many people were trading last week on inside information, or at least a strong belief that the White House will substantially ease tariffs. If that’s the case, we could see some ‘sell the fact’ action if/when it’s announced.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

At the turn of the year, it looked like a certainty that Conservatives would form a large majority in this year’s Canadian election but Trump changed everything. His harsh tariffs on Canada and unceasing 51st state talk upended the focus on housing/immigration/culture and put it squarely on sovereignty.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre struggled to strike the right chord on that issue and the Liberal Party replaced the unpopular Justin Trudeau with the electable Mark Carney. With that, and a collapse in the left-leaning NDP, the polls have been flipped upside down. Liberals now enjoy a roughly 5 point advantage in a split that will likely lead to a majority.

Of course, the polls have been wrong many times in the past decade so we will wait for Monday’s results.

If anything, there will be some modest disappointment in CAD if the Liberals win, though I would expect something less than 50 pips in USD/CAD as it should be widely priced in now.

Based on polling averages, Scotia estimates an 80% probability of a Liberal majority. The remaining probabilities are for a Liberal minority or Conservative minority, with only a tail rise of an outright Conservative win.

The worst-case scenario for the loonie would be another Liberal government propped up by the NDP and/or Bloc Quebecois. That would stifle Carney’s touted agenda to improve building conditions in Canada and extend the bloated bureaucracy.

In contrast, if the Conservatives pull out a win, I would expect to see a relief rally in the loonie, that could extend to a full cent — all else equal.

After the dusk settles, I think the larger ultimate signal for Canadian assets will be how Carney forms cabinet. We still have scant ideas on what he wants to do and if he stacks it with former Trudeau ministers — particularly in the environment portfolio — then it could spell trouble.

Most notably though will be how Trump and Carney get along. The early indications are that the 51st state talk isn’t going to go away.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• US stocks end the week with a four day win streak
• Feds Semi-annu Anderson al survey: Risks to global trade are the most frequently cited risk
• What are the key economic events on the calendar next week
• Earnings calendar: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Coca-Cola
• Crude oil futures settle at $63.02
• EU Comm. Dombrovski: Reiterates that EU willing to reach mutually agreeable solution w/ US
• Trump: Will not drop China tariffs unless they give us something
• Trump: We will be reasonable on tariffs
• European equity close: Solid gains to cap a sizzling week
• Kremlin: US envoy Witkoff and Putin met for 3-hours. Talks were constructive
• BOE Greene: we are not sure if weakness in UK economy is demand or supply
• University of Michigan final sentiment for April 52.2 versus 50.8
• USTR: Greer: It is constantly engaged w/Japan & other countries in reciprocal trade talks
• Canada retail sales for February -0.4% versus -0.4% estimate
• Chinese Embassy: US and China are not having any talks on tariffs
• The USD is higher to start the new trading day. What are the charts telling traders?
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: Markets less optimistic after Trump’s interview with Time

The markets were not all that giddy about the Time Magazine interview with Pres Trump. The article addressed several key international and economic issues.

• He expressed no or little concern about the bond market turmoil earlier in April, stating confidence in his economic direction.
• On foreign policy, he asserted that Crimea would remain with Russia and maintained that peace is possible even with Vladimir Putin in power
• When asked about potential U.S. involvement if Israel goes to war with Iran, he clarified he didn’t commit to staying out.
• He confirmed that China’s President Xi had contacted him
• He also emphasized that high tariffs—i.e. 20% to 50%—are part of a long-term strategy to bolster the U.S. economy, calling such a scenario a “total victory.”
• Trump noted upcoming trade deal announcements and reiterated his openness to taxing millionaires.
• He also entertained the oft-mentioned expansionist ideas such as acquiring the Panama Canal, Greenland, and making Canada the 51st U.S. state.

Although stocks were lower to start the trading day, they did ease into the open and moved into positive territory in the morning session.

The Michigan consumer sentiment index was a positive at least relative to the preliminary data, although still near the lowest levels going back to at least 2009. The inflation readings were also elevated with one-year inflation at 6.5%, but at least it was lower than the 6.7% preliminary.

That helped to keep the stocks in positive territory. As Pres. Trump said today the market seem to be getting used to the tariffs (until there used to or the impact from inflation/supply shocks make the markets nervous again). Nevertheless, today was the fourth consecutive day higher in major US stock indices. The NASDAQ index after losing over -2.5% clawed back those declines and added 6.7% more for the week. The S&P index closed higher by 4.59% for the trading week after also climbing by about -2.5% on Monday.

For the trading day:

• Dow industrial average rose 0.05%
• S&P index rose 0.74%
• NASDAQ index rose 1.26%

European shares also advanced today and for the week:

• German DAX rose 0.81% for the day, and 4.89% for the week.
• UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.09% for the day and 1.69% for the week
• CAC rose 0.45% for the day and 3.44% for the week.
• Spain’s Ibex rose 1.33% for the day and 3.39% for the week
• Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 1.47 for the day and 3.8% for the week

In the US debt market, yields were lower today, and closed lower for the week as well:

• 2-year yield 3.756%, -3.5 basis points. For the week the yield fell -4.4 basis points.
• 5-year yield 3.875%, -5.2 basis points. For the week the yield fell -6.7 basis points.
• 10 year yield 4.250%, -5.4 basis points. For the week, the yield fell -8.0 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.716%, -4.9 basis points. For the week the yield fell -9.0 basis points

The 2 – 10 year spread reached its highest level since January 2022 this week rising to 64.8 basis points, but is back down to 50.1 basis points at the end of the week.

The 2-30 year spread also reached the highest level going back to January 2022 at 113 basis points, but is closing at 96.2 basis points.

The US dollar is ending the day higher versus all the major currencies. Looking at the changes:

• EUR, +0.25%
• JPY +0.79%
• GBP +0.24%
• CHF +0.12%
• CAD +0.04%
• AUD +0.20%
• NZD +0.60%

For the trading week,, the greenback was mixed with gains versus the EUR, JPY, CHF and losses vs the GBP, AUD and NZD. The USD was near unchanged vs the CAD. A snapshot of the week changes shows:

• EUR +0.26%
• GBP -0.16%
• JPY +1.12%
• CHF +1.44%
• CAD unchanged
• AUD -0.35%
• NZD -0.54%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices close the week with a four day when streak. Monday’s declines of over 2.5% were erased on Tuesday. The gains from Wednesday Thursday and Friday were icing on the cake.

The NASDAQ index outpaced the other major indices with a gain of 6.73%.

.For the day, the NASDAQ rose 1.26%

A snapshot of the final numbers shows:

• Dow industrial average rose 20.10 points or 0.05% at 40113.50.
• S&P index rose 40.44 points or 0.74% at 5525.21.
• NASDAQ index rose to 16.90 or 1.26% at 17382.94

for the trading week:

• Dow industrial average rose 2.48%
• S&P index rose 4.59%
• NASDAQ index rose 6.73%

Some of the biggest winners this week included:

• Palantir: +19.88%

• Robinhood Markets: +19.72%

• Trump Media & Technology Group: +18.83%

• Tesla: +18.06%

• SoFi Technologies: +17.21%

• MicroStrategy: +16.26%

• Shopify Inc: +16.10%

• Micron: +15.92%

• Super Micro Computer: +15.76%

• Nio A ADR: +14.35%

• Netflix: +13.20%

• CrowdStrike Holdings: +13.11%

Next week, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple report earnings. Also, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Pfizer, Exxon Mobil, Coca-Cola, Chevron will all report as well

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• 🔴 Risks to global trade are the most frequently cited risk to the U.S. financial system, according to new Federal Reserve survey

• 🔴 Fed says growing stablecoin sector remains subject to run risks

• 🔴 Fed says bank funding vulnerabilities in line with historical norms

• 🔴 Fed says funding markets were resilient through early April’s market volatility

• 🔴 Global trade risks, fiscal debt sustainability, and policy uncertainty top concerns of Fed survey respondents

• 🔴 Fed survey respondents also cite foreign divestment from U.S. assets, value of U.S. dollar, as other new potential shocks

• 🔴 Fed survey: Some respondents say ‘incremental tariffs’ may only cause modest disruption

• 🔴 Fed in latest Financial Stability Report says prices remain high relative to fundamentals even after April market turmoil

• 🔴 Fed says liquidity in Treasury and equity markets was low and worsened further in April, though market functioning remained orderly

• 🔴 Fed says Treasury markets continued to see orderly trading, markets continued to function amid recent volatility

• 🔴 Fed says commercial real estate prices showed some signs of stabilizing

• 🔴 Fed says banking system remained sound and resilient, but hedge fund leverage rose to historical highs, concentrated among largest funds

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.