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• Initial jobless claims 222K vs 222K expected
• Prior 215K (revised to 216K)
• Continuing claims 1.841M vs 1.875M expected
• Prior 1.885M (revised to 1.878M)

Still solid data with no weakness in sight. Continuing claims are a good barometer for permanent job losers and they improved. All in all, nothing to see here, the labour market is fine for now.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The IMFs Georgieva is saying:

• Says world economy is facing a new and major test with depleted buffers

• Says China needs to reduce imbalances and shift to consumption

• Says trade-offs will be toughest for low income countries

• Says countries need to watch data for inflation pressures and adjust policy accordingly

• Says central bank independence is critical for credibility

• Says countries should double down on growth-oriented reforms and productivity enhancements

• Says U.S. is our largest shareholder, we value voice of U.S. administration

• Says Bessent expressed commitment to IMF

• Says Bessent raised important issues that will be incorporated into IMF policies

• Will follow membership and policies, countries that are highly vulnerable to extreme weather events will need support

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Fairly certain inflation effect will be stronger in the US than in Europe.
• The effects of tariffs on growth will be significant in Europe and Germany.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Disinflationary forces are there because of the Euro and energy.
• Trade policy uncertainty has been on radar since summer.
• There’s reason for longer-term optimism on the economy.
• The European economy is growing and showing resilience.
• The economy should be growing, despite trade negatives.
• We can’t get ahead of ourselves on any path for economy.
• The US is an important trading partner, but not the only partner.
• We won’t pre-commit to any rate path.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 25/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Why market positioning is a key ingredient to trading performance
• FMAS:25 – Africa’s Largest Trading Summit
• ECB’s Rehn: ECB shouldn’t rule out larger interest rate cut
• Russia says Zelensky has categorically refused to make any concessions
• Germany April Ifo business climate index 86.9 vs 85.2 expected
• China Commerce Ministry: There haven’t been trade negotiations between China and US
• China’s Guo: China will fight tariff war if we must
• France April consumer confidence 92 vs 91 expected
• Nomura sees the SNB returning to negative rates in the next quarter
• What are the main events for today?
• Xi says China willing to work with other countries to uphold international trade rules
• Germany says that Plan A is still to agree to reduction of tariffs with the US
• FX option expiries for 24 April 10am New York cut

It’s been a relatively quiet session in terms of news releases. The highlights were the comments from Chinese officials demanding US to drop tariffs unilaterally before seeking deals. We saw Trump slowly caving in and he’s likely to keep doing it given the damage to the US economy if he does nothing.

I also saw a nice take from a supply chain management executive warning that in case we get a rollback of tariff hikes on China, it could create an “insane surge in pricing and covid level logistics bottlenecks” in freight shipping (which have collapsed recently). This is definetely something that the market will likely price in once we get the catalyst.

In the markets, we had a bit of a reversal of yesterday’s moves that got triggered by positive Trump’s comments late Tuesday. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq filled their gaps, the US Dollar erased most of the gains, gold is slowly edging back higher and Treasury yields are falling.

In the American session, the US Jobless Claims will be the main highlight but unless we get a surprise spike above the 260K level, the market will likely ignore the data. The focus remains on tariff related news.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Reports say that Japan is to resist Trump efforts to form trade bloc against China, which is Trump’s strategy to force a deal with China. We are seeing more and more countries stepping up their tone as the US now looks much weaker than it looked just a couple of weeks ago. This is also why Trump continues to ease his hawkish rhetoric.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The magnitude of the market reaction to a repricing in expectations is generally driven by positioning.

Say we are in risk on, so risk assets generally rally together like equities, commodities, commodity currencies and so on.

The magnitude of the moves in each market is determined by positioning.

If one of those markets is let’s say net short, there’s much more room to the upside.

Therefore, to get the big moves you should find the markets where a change in expectations can yield the most and then wait for the catalyst to trigger the repricing.

Recent examples include the aggressive stock market selloff when everyone was bullish because of better growth expectations and we got the catalysts that triggered the growth fears or the US Dollar selloff when positioning became overstretched on the long side (with news covers praising the greenback’s strength) and we got the trade wars triggering a repricing in rate cuts expectations on the more dovish side.

When market positioning is overstretched to one side, reactions to new information tend to be more exaggerated. If new info contradicts the consensus, traders are forced to quickly exit trades to cut losses or take profits off the table. This reaction can then be amplified by algos and so on and given the use of leverage, it can lead to big and fast moves.

That’s why as a trader, you should always be wary of positioning because it can either wipe out most of your gains when conditions change or offer you a great opportunity to ride the repricing in expectations.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• ECB shouldn’t rule out larger interest rate cut.
• There are a few good reasons to pause rate cuts.
• Economic risks are starting to materialise.
• We must retain full freedom of action, be agile.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Russia says Zelensky has categorically refused to make any concessions or to discuss the status of Crimea.
• Says Zelensky’s approach shows he wants to fight the war until the last Ukrainian.
• Russia accuses European ‘hawks’ of encouraging Zelensky to continue the war regardless of casualties.
• Says European countries are afraid of the prospect of a Russian victory.

This looks more and more like a no deal.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 86.7
• Current assessment 86.4 vs. 85.4 expected
• Prior 85.7
• Expectations 87.4 vs. 85.0 expected
• Prior 87.7

These are certainly better figures than feared given the trade uncertainty. It shouldn’t be a surprise though given that the German PMIs showed the same yesterday and they are correlated with the IFO.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 86.7
• Current assessment 86.4 vs. 85.4 expected
• Prior 85.7
• Expectations 87.4 vs. 85.0 expected
• Prior 87.7

These are certainly better figures than feared given the trade uncertainty. It shouldn’t be a surprise though given that the German PMIs showed the same yesterday and they are correlated with the IFO.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.