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• General activity (region): -42.7 vs. -32.5 prior
• General activity (firm level): -26.7 vs. -17.5 prior
• New orders: -6.9 vs. -19.5 prior
• Sales/revenues: -7.8 vs. -4.7 prior
• Full-time employment: -7.2 vs. -7.5 prior
• Part-time employment: -7.9 vs. 3.5 prior
• Prices paid: 46.5 vs. 36.0 prior
• Prices received: -0.1 vs. 8.4 prior

Future indicators (six months):

• General activity : -31.8 vs. -24.0 prior (lowest since April 2020)
• General activity (firm level): -23.0 vs. -19.8 prior

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +0.4% (revised to +0.6%)
• PPI yy 4.7% vs 4.9% prior
• Raw materials price index -1.0% m/m vs +0.3% prior
• Raw materials price index +3.9% y/y vs +6.6% prior

The slowdown in price pressures is notable via raw materials and that will continue in April via the plunge in oil and natural gas prices.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar has bounced back today and that’s led to a give-back of some of yesterday’s “sell America” trade.

I don’t see any game-changers on the economic calendar today as the main highlight is another economic sentiment survey; this time the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey. These have clearly deteriorated as we saw with Empire last week but the market wants to see some hard data showing what’s happening to the economy, particularly employment.

The other front to watch is Fedspeak with Jefferson (9 am ET), Harker (9:30 am ET), Kashkari (1:40 pm ET), Barkin (2:30 pm ET) and Kugler (6 pm ET). So far there has been a strong consensus that the Fed needs to wait on tariff policy and get inflation lower before cutting rates.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Interest rates are now within the neutral range.
• June to depend on data, forecasts and risk outlook.
• Inflation to reach 2% in the next few months.
• Time needed to assess risks associated with tariffs.
• US Trade policy is eroding confidence.
• We must remain vigilant and agile.

Markets are pricing a 72% chance of a 25 bps cut in June and a total of 66 bps of easing by year-end.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• ECB’s Rehn: Great uncertainty is restraining economic activity
• US VP Vance: India and America have finalised terms of reference for a trade deal
• Little progress on trade negotiations keeps the market betting on more aggressive easing
• BoE’s Greene: Pricing partly reflects global factors
• ECB survey: Inflation seen at 2.2% in 2025 vs 2.1% seen three months ago
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 18 April CHF 448.3 bn vs CHF 446.9 bn prior
• Japan Keidanren Chief Tokura: Rapid FX fluctuation not desirable for economy
• What are the main events for today?
• Tedious US-Japan trade talks highlight difficulty for any deals
• USD/JPY dips below 140 for the first time since September last year
• FX option expiries for 22 April 10am New York cut
• Long-end Treasuries continue to send warning signals
• Gold stays relentless in its push higher, eyes $3,500 next

It’s been a relatively quiet session in the markets compared to yesterday’s aggressive moves. There hasn’t been any notable data or news release and we continue to wait for some concrete development on the trade negotiations front.

The main theme remains the “sell America” trade with US assets like stocks, bonds and the USD remaining under pressure while safe havens like gold continue to make new highs.

The problem is that positioning is getting overstretched pretty much everywhere and that’s when you see big reversals once a catalyst hits the market.

The catalyst will likely be the first trade deal as the focus remains on tariff negotiations.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Great uncertainty is restraining economic activity.
• In the short-term, the impact of tariffs on Euro Area inflation is to the downside due to lower demand.
• Most economist assumed the euro would weaken as a result of tariffs. That has not happened.
• If China redirects its exports toward Europe due to excessively high
  tariffs by the US, if energy prices fall and if the euro strengthens,
  then tariffs won’t cause inflation to accelerate in the euro area.
• The trade war started by President Trump has created exceptional uncertainty, which reduces euro-area economic growth.

The experience from the trade war 1.0 in 2018 taught that tariffs indeed cause temporary inflation but have also a negative impact on growth which eventually weighs on inflation. Today’s context is very different of course and we will see how this evolves.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 23/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• India and America have finalised terms of reference for a trade deal.
• I believe that India and US have much to offer one another.
• Our administration seeks trade partners on the basis of fairness.
• We have common goals with India.
• India and US will co-produce many defence equipment items.
• India and US both know the region must remain safe from any hostile powers.
• We want India to buy more of our military equipment.
• We want to help India explore offshore gas reserve and critical mineral supplies.
• India should consider dropping some of the non-tariff barriers for American access to the Indian market.
• I welcome India’s budget amendment of nuclear liability laws.
• I believe America’s energy can help realise India’s nuclear goals.

Vance was in India on a personal trip with the second lady Usha Vance and his family. He met India’s PM Modi in New Delhi and discussed about trade and cooperation. As a reminder, Trump imposed 26% reciprocal tariff on India on April 2 before suspending them for 90 days and leaving a 10% baseline tariff.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The new week started with a bang as we saw strong moves across the board in the markets. The main theme remains the “sell America” trade, but bitcoin was a standout as it decoupled from the stock market.

Bitcoin is generally correlated with stock market performance given that they have similar macro drivers like future growth expectations. Yesterday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq sold off, while bitcoin rallied.

The correlation is not perfect and we saw many times bitcoin decoupling from the stock market due to idiosyncratic drivers, but I struggle to find a catalyst to justify yesterday’s price action.

On the daily chart, we can see that bitcoin has now broke decisevely above the key trendline and the 90,625 resistance will be eyed as the next target. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back into the lows.

On the 1 hour chart, we can see the breakout of the recent range. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the broken resistance around the 86,125 level to position for the rally into the 90,625 resistance next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the 86,125 level to target the 83,000 support next.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 90 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 66 bps (74% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 87 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 46 bps (54% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 127 bps (78% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 84 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 28 bps (86% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

* for the RBA, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut.

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 14 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

We can see that since the last update, the markets increased the pricing for more easing given the lack of positive news on the trade negotiations front.

That’s what the market has been focused on for weeks, and it will continue to do so. The first trade deal will be an important catalyst.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Pricing partly reflects global factors.
• Not all market pricing focused on UK.
• I am more concerned about supply side.
• Exchange rates haven’t gone as theory suggests.
• A falling dollar would be disinflationary for UK.
• Too early to say where dust will settle on dollar strength.

The market is pricing 87 bps of easing by year-end and 99% probability of a 25 bps cut at the upcoming BoE meeting. The market’s pricing was of course driven by the US tariffs announcement and the following global market rout.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Domestic sight deposits CHF 439.7 bn vs CHF 438.4 bn prior

There’s not much change in overall Swiss sight deposits in the past week. And that is suggestive of the SNB not being all too active in the market amid the stronger flows still in play, though mostly down to the dollar struggling. EUR/CHF is still in a decent spot, having fended off a test of the lows last year near 0.9200 recently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.