• Inflation seen at 2.2% in 2025 vs 2.1% seen three months ago.
• 2026 inflation forecast at 2.0% vs 1.9%.
• Growth seen at 0.9% in 2025 vs 1.0% in previous forecast.

The impacts of tariffs and defence spending are the main factors behind revisions.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Rapid FX fluctuation not desirable for economy.
• Want FX to stabilise as much as possible.

The surging yen is not something that the Japanese are happy about at the moment. There’s a reuters report saying that Japanese officials will push back against any request to boost the yen in trade talks with the US. “Three sources with knowledge of the negotiations” say that Japan sees little scope for direct action such as currency intervention or an immediate rate hike.

A rate hike is definitely off the table for the time being with the market pricing just 14 bps of tightening by year-end. The negative impact on the economy from tariffs uncertainty and the downward pressure on inflation from stronger yen and lower commodity prices will keep the BoJ on the sidelines.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 22 April 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

The Core CPI, as tracked by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), accelerated from an annual rate of 1.5% in October to 2.2% in January and February due to a persistent increase in food prices. The core reading rose 2.2% once again in March, undershooting the forecast of 2.4% increase. With price pressures abating for the second consecutive month, demand for the yen tapered off slightly, with USD/JPY climbing above 140 after dipping to a low of 139.91 during this session.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

ECP President Christine Lagarde will be interviewed by CNBC later today where she could provide further insights into the ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and the European Union, as well as deliver the latest status on its progress, if any. In addition, she could also shed further light on how the current global macroeconomic environment had influenced this central bank’s decision-making process at last week’s monetary policy meeting. The Euro jumped 1.5% at its highest point on Monday before taking a breather – this currency pair was hovering around 1.1500 by midday in Asia.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Richmond Manufacturing Index (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After improving in the previous month, the Richmond manufacturing index slowed in March as it fell to -4, missing market expectations for a second successive month of higher output. The estimate for April points to a second consecutive month of decline but at a faster rate, a result that is influenced heavily by the ongoing tariff escalation and uncertainty between the U.S. and its major trading partners, placing further pressure on the dollar.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Richmond Manufacturing Index (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After improving in the previous month, the Richmond manufacturing index slowed in March as it fell to -4, missing market expectations for a second successive month of higher output. The estimate for April points to a second consecutive month of decline but at a faster rate, a result that is influenced heavily by the ongoing tariff escalation and uncertainty between the U.S. and its major trading partners, placing further pressure on the dollar which would provide additional tailwinds for gold prices.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Australian markets resumed trading on Tuesday following a four-day closure due to the Easter holidays. The Aussie hit an overnight high of 0.6437 before pulling back slightly as Asian markets came online on Tuesday – this currency pair should remain elevated above 0.6400 as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Following a four-day closure due to the Easter holidays, the Kiwi rallied more than 1.5% to make an overnight high of 0.6019. Despite fizzling out at the beginning of Tuesday’s session as it dipped under the threshold of 0.6000, this currency pair will likely remain elevated.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

BoJ Core CPI (5:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Core CPI, as tracked by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), accelerated from an annual rate of 1.5% in October to 2.2% in January and February due to a persistent increase in food prices. The core reading rose 2.2% once again in March, undershooting the forecast of 2.4% increase. With price pressures abating for the second consecutive month, demand for the yen tapered off slightly, with USD/JPY climbing above 140 after dipping to a low of 139.91 during this session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 1 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde’s Speech (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

ECP President Christine Lagarde will be interviewed by CNBC later today where she could provide further insights into the ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and the European Union, as well as deliver the latest status on its progress, if any. In addition, she could also shed further light on how the current global macroeconomic environment had influenced this central bank’s decision-making process at last week’s monetary policy meeting. The Euro jumped 1.5% at its highest point on Monday before taking a breather – this currency pair was hovering around 1.1490 as Asian markets came online on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 April to mark the sixth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.40%, 2.65% and 2.25% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track with both headline and core inflation declining in March while services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.
• Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• In particular, the Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 5 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for safe-haven assets such as the franc remained elevated as USD/CHF fell nearly 1.2% on Monday. This currency pair tumbled as low as 0.8039 before recovering to find its footing around  0.8100 at the beginning of Tuesday’s session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Following a four-day closure due to the Easter holidays, British markets will resume trading today. Demand for Cable remained robust as it jumped 1% to make an overnight high of 1.3422 before running out of steam. This currency pair dipped under 1.3400 at the beginning of Tuesday’s session but it is likely to remain elevated.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Continued sell-off in the greenback drove USD/CAD under 1.3800 overnight. This currency pair stabilized in the early hours of Tuesday to float around 1.3830 but overhead pressures remain firmly intact.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope –  Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After falling 2.8% on Monday, crude oil prices climbed in early trade on Tuesday, most likely due to short-covering activity. However, concerns surrounding economic headwinds from tariffs and U.S. monetary policy persist, damping global fuel demand. WTI oil rose above $63 per barrel and could grind higher as the day progresses. Moving over to U.S. inventories, the API stockpiles have continued to build higher in 2025, signalling weaker demand for crude. Another strong rise in these inventory levels could cause prices to stall later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 22 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• German DAX futures -0.8%
• French CAC 40 futures -0.4%
• UK FTSE futures -0.6%

If you’re just coming back from the Easter break, there’s not much positive developments to behold. US-Japan trade talks didn’t seem to make much progress and Trump is continuing to lambast Powell over his job. Meanwhile, US stocks ended lower yesterday but at least futures are showing a slight bounce today. That said, long-end Treasury yields are bubbling up again so that’s another risk factor to be mindful of for equities.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The trade talks between the US and Japan were the first real test of Trump’s appetite to strike a compromise in this tariffs war. In fact, it was supposed to be one of the easiest battles to settle. In the aftermath, he touted “big progress” in the talks in Washington but the Japanese camp was less upbeat. It wouldn’t be the first time though that we got a contrast in views on the situation, as led by Trump’s history.

And over the weekend, the contrast became even more stark when Japan ruled out a quick deal here. And what is being reported is that Japan is asking the US what it wants during negotiations, and the latter can’t even respond fruitfully on that front.

This just reaffirms what former assistant secretary of defense, Chas Freeman, had to say over the weekend:

“The Japanese have just been in Washington. Their experience apparently was they went to talk to the American leadership on this matter, and the American leadership said “what are you offering?”. And the Japanese said “well, what is it that you want?”. And the Americans could not explain what they wanted. This is a cockamamie approach to negotiation.”

Freeman goes on to warn that China has definitely picked up on that and it could spell trouble for the rest of the world if the Chinese were to just hunker down and ride out the storm.

“What is China’s incentive to negotiate with the US when the US has no stated objectives that make sense and no record of compliance with its own agreements? I think the Chinese have decided they will wait us out and see how Americans like Walmart and Amazon denuded of products.”

It’s a bad omen for the world economy and broader markets if this reckless approach to trade negotiations keep up. As things stand, there’s already going to be damage but the extent of it remains uncertain. But if this is what we’re dealing with, then 90 days definitely won’t suffice in getting any positive outcomes.

If even Japan is struggling to get something out of talks with the US, what else more difficult parties like the EU and China? That is if we even get there at this stage in the near future.

There’s still time to course correct from all this but that will require Trump to drop more of his ego. For now, it’s unlikely but that is the best that markets can hope for. Otherwise, the alternative is to let all this carnage play out and that’s not a pretty sight to behold over the next few months at least.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

There is still no shelter for the dollar in trading this week and we’re starting to see another big level come into play for USD/JPY. The 140.00 mark is a key one on the charts as it also acts as a major psychological level.

The lows from September last year held somewhat with the daily close coming above that. As such, a firm break below the figure level could really run some stops and deepen the rout that we’re seeing in recent weeks for USD/JPY.

As things stand, it’s still all about the flows and broader market sentiment. Traders are sticking with selling US assets across the board and that is not helping to see the dollar gather much reprieve. And in a time of massive uncertainty, the yen and franc continues to be the two main beneficiaries in the FX space.

On a break of 140.00, the 200-week moving average for USD/JPY will be the next key technical level to watch out for. That is seen at 137.96 currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.06%, Shanghai Composite up 0.31%, Hang Seng down 0.10% ASX down 0.05%
• Commodities : Gold at $3496.35 (2.09%), Silver at $32.82 (0.95%), Brent Oil at $66.65 (0.60%), WTI Oil at $62.86 (0.71%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.425, UK 10-year yield at 4.5715, Germany 10-year yield at 2.4695

News & Data:

• (USD) CB Leading Index m/m  -0.7%  to -0.5%  expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets were mostly muted on Tuesday, following a sharp sell-off on Wall Street. The downturn in U.S. markets came after President Donald Trump intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, casting doubts on the central bank’s independence.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix indices traded flat, reflecting cautious sentiment. South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.19%, while the small-cap Kosdaq edged up 0.16%. In contrast, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined by 0.63%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.25%, and China’s CSI 300 dipped 0.17% at the open.

U.S. stock futures showed little movement. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 18 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures hovered near the flatline.

The losses followed a turbulent session overnight in the U.S., where major indices plunged amid escalating tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 971.82 points, or 2.48%, closing at 38,170.41. The S&P 500 fell 2.36% to 5,158.20, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2.55% to 15,870.90.

President Trump’s renewed attacks on Powell have raised investor concerns about the Fed’s autonomy, particularly as there are limited signs of progress in ongoing global trade negotiations. Powell reiterated last week that the Fed’s independence is protected by law. According to economists at ANZ, markets are currently assessing whether Trump’s comments signal a serious intent to remove Powell or are part of a strategy to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates.

Upcoming Events: 

• 02:00 PM GMT – USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
• 02:00 PM GMT – EUR Consumer Confidence

The post Tuesday 22nd April 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Steady as Wall Street Slumps Amid Trump’s Fed Criticism first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot in the short term and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 97.54

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 94.79

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 100.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1532

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.1198
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1710
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 163.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 158.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.98
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot in the short term and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 0.8472

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8319
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8718
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3431

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to  the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.3160
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3613
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 189.45
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 184.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 192.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot in the short term and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 0.7860

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.7699
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8383
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot in the short term and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 140.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 137.89
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 144.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

 USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3856

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum. 

1st support: 1.3700
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3974
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6402
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.6287

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6523
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5971
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.5887

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6114

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 39,318.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 36,937.99

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 40,824.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 21,505.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 20,358.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 22,723.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,480.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 4,878.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,778.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 88,428.80
Supporting reasons:  Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 83,233.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 92,463.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1,670.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1,438.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1,913.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 65.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 61.8 Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 58.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 68.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3359.97

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 3246.-7
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3527.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property. 

The post Tuesday 22nd April 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 22 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

After declining further in February due to consumers’ expectations of future business conditions turning more pessimistic, the Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) once again dropped lower in March, falling 0.7% MoM, higher than the forecast of a 0.5% decline. Not only did this latest result mark the fourth consecutive month of decrease but it was also the largest since October 2023. The LEI deteriorated as soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements caused components such as consumer expectations to weaken significantly while new orders in manufacturing softened noticeably. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump’s criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on his ‘refusal’ to move ahead with pre-emptive rate cuts rattled financial markets overnight. The dollar index (DXY) dived as low as 97.92 while spot prices for gold soared to another record high of $3,430.57/oz on Monday.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The Core CPI, as tracked by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), accelerated from an annual rate of 1.5% in October to 2.2% in February due to a persistent increase in food prices. Price pressures are once again expected to accelerate in March, rising to 2.4%, putting pressure on the BoJ to increase its key policy rate at the upcoming monetary policy meeting on 1st of May. The yen continued to see strong inflows on Monday as demand for safe-haven currencies remained robust with USD/JPY tumbling as low as 140.47.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Richmond Manufacturing Index (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After improving in the previous month, the Richmond manufacturing index slowed in March as it fell to -4, missing market expectations for a second successive month of higher output. The estimate for April points to a second consecutive month of decline but at a faster rate, a result that is influenced heavily by the ongoing tariff escalation and uncertainty between the U.S. and its major trading partners, placing further pressure on the dollar.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Richmond Manufacturing Index (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After improving in the previous month, the Richmond manufacturing index slowed in March as it fell to -4, missing market expectations for a second successive month of higher output. The estimate for April points to a second consecutive month of decline but at a faster rate, a result that is influenced heavily by the ongoing tariff escalation and uncertainty between the U.S. and its major trading partners, placing further pressure on the dollar which would provide additional tailwinds for gold prices.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Australian markets resumed trading on Tuesday following a four-day closure due to the Easter holidays. The Aussie hit an overnight high of 0.6437 before pulling back slightly as Asian markets came online on Tuesday – this currency pair should remain elevated above 0.6400 as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Following a four-day closure due to the Easter holidays, the Kiwi rallied more than 1.5% to make an overnight high of 0.6019. Despite fizzling out at the beginning of Tuesday’s session as it dipped under the threshold of 0.6000, this currency pair will likely remain elevated.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

BoJ Core CPI (5:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Core CPI, as tracked by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), accelerated from an annual rate of 1.5% in October to 2.2% in February due to a persistent increase in food prices. Price pressures are once again expected to accelerate in March, rising to 2.4%, putting pressure on the BoJ to increase its key policy rate at the upcoming monetary policy meeting on 1st of May. The yen continued to see strong inflows on Monday as demand for safe-haven currencies remained robust with USD/JPY tumbling as low as 140.47.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 1 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde’s Speech (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

ECP President Christine Lagarde will be interviewed by CNBC later today where she could provide further insights into the ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and the European Union, as well as deliver the latest status on its progress, if any. In addition, she could also shed further light on how the current global macroeconomic environment had influenced this central bank’s decision-making process at last week’s monetary policy meeting. The Euro jumped 1.5% at its highest point on Monday before taking a breather – this currency pair was hovering around 1.1490 as Asian markets came online on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 April to mark the sixth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.40%, 2.65% and 2.25% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track with both headline and core inflation declining in March while services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.
• Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• In particular, the Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 5 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for safe-haven assets such as the franc remained elevated as USD/CHF fell nearly 1.2% on Monday. This currency pair tumbled as low as 0.8039 before recovering to find its footing around  0.8100 at the beginning of Tuesday’s session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Following a four-day closure due to the Easter holidays, British markets will resume trading today. Demand for Cable remained robust as it jumped 1% to make an overnight high of 1.3422 before running out of steam. This currency pair dipped under 1.3400 at the beginning of Tuesday’s session but it is likely to remain elevated.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Continued sell-off in the greenback drove USD/CAD under 1.3800 overnight. This currency pair stabilized in the early hours of Tuesday to float around 1.3830 but overhead pressures remain firmly intact.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope –  Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After falling 2.8% on Monday, crude oil prices climbed in early trade on Tuesday, most likely due to short-covering activity. However, concerns surrounding economic headwinds from tariffs and U.S. monetary policy persist, damping global fuel demand. WTI oil rose above $63 per barrel and could grind higher as the day progresses. Moving over to U.S. inventories, the API stockpiles have continued to build higher in 2025, signalling weaker demand for crude. Another strong rise in these inventory levels could cause prices to stall later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 22 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Markets Smashed as Trump Attacks Fed – Nasdaq Down 2.5%

US markets took a big hit again yesterday as President Trump attacked Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve Bank, demanding rate cuts. All three of the major indices finished sharply lower: the Dow dropped 2.48%, the S&P lost 2.36%, and the Nasdaq closed 2.55% in the red. The dollar took a big hit, with the DXY losing 0.71% on the day, taking it down to 98.37—levels not seen for over three years. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year dropping 3.6 basis points to 3.762%, whilst longer dates rallied, the benchmark 10-year closing up 8.6 basis points at 4.411%. Oil prices dipped on news that there has been progress in talks between the US and Iran—Brent down 2.1% to $66.53 and WTI down 2.47% to $63.08. Gold prices surged higher yet again on the weaker dollar and increased market uncertainty after Trump’s comments, up 2.7% to yet another all-time high, closing the session at $3,424.19 an ounce.

Trump Hurting US Markets Again

Both US stocks and the dollar took a big hit in trading yesterday as President Trump launched another attack on Jerome Powell and the Fed for not cutting interest rates. The irony, of course, is that the Fed was fully expected to be in an easing cycle now, but they have pushed rate cut expectations back due to Trump’s aggressive stance on trade, which has greatly increased inflation fears. Investors have reacted strongly again to the latest comments from the Oval Office, which are now putting doubts on the independence of the Federal Reserve and threats from Trump on Powell’s position. This is only adding more uncertainty to global markets—and more particularly, US markets—and traders are preparing for more volatility and potential downside moves in the days ahead.

Volatility to Remain High as Major Centers Return

Traders are expecting volatility to remain elevated today as several major trading centers return from a long weekend break to digest the latest geopolitical updates out of the US. The macroeconomic calendar is relatively quiet again, but Asian bourses are expected to start out on the back foot after another bad day on Wall Street. There are no Tier 1 data releases scheduled in the European session; however, Euro traders will be glued to screens midway through the day, with ECB President Christine Lagarde due to be interviewed. The New York session has just the Richmond Manufacturing Index data due out (exp -6.0) early in the day, but we also hear from Fed members Jefferson, Harker, and Kashkari during the day, and investors will be keen to see if there is much of a response to President Trump’s attack.

The post General Market Analysis – 22/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

This morning I was saddened by the death of Pope Francis.

Pope Francis was a man of love, of inclusion, of welcoming. That shepherding was based on the gospel – the word of the Lord. He was never above God/Jesus. However, he followed the example They gave him and us.

Jesus was sent to change things. He walked the earth and said there are two commandments – Love God was the first.

All things emanate from loving God. It is fundamental to love God for giving us the world we live, and the lives we live..

The 2nd commandment was Love your neighbor. Jesus even added, “Love your enemy”.

How do you love your neighbor? You welcome them. You make them feel at home. You care for them. You help them. You give of yourself to them. Pope Francis loved all people. Loving the traditional, the Catholic, the Christians is easy, but he went beyond those borders:

• In his Fratelli Tutti encyclical, he called for universal fraternity beyond all boundaries—religious, national, or social—affirming that everyone is created in the image of God.

• During actions during travel, whether washing the feet of refugees (including Muslims, women, and non-Catholics), visiting prisons, or comforting migrants, Francis constantly embodied the Gospel principle that “whatever you did for the least of these… you did for me.”

• He once said that “If someone is gay and he searches for the Lord and has good will, who am I to judge?”

• He has publicly supported civil unions for same-sex couples, saying they have a right to legal protection, even as he upholds Church teaching on marriage.

• He’s met with LGBTQ+ individuals and advocacy groups, expressing love and pastoral care. He wrote letters of encouragement to Catholic parents of LGBTQ+ children, telling them, “God loves your children as they are.”

• In 2019, he signed the Document on Human Fraternity with Grand Imam Ahmed el-Tayeb in Abu Dhabi—an unprecedented interfaith gesture promoting peace and coexistence.

• He called the Jewish people the “elder brothers” of the Christian faith and has participated in Holocaust memorials, fostering dialogue and reconciliation.

• After the death of George Floyd, he called out the sin of racism, saying, “We cannot tolerate or turn a blind eye to racism and exclusion in any form.”

How do you love your enemy? There is good and bad in the world. God gave us a choice to go down this path of righteousness or go down this other path of sin. We all make mistakes (sin). Sometimes those mistakes hurt us/other people. We learn to forgive. That is part of love.

Sometimes we have trouble fully forgiving. It takes two to tango or the wrong is just too egregious/hurtful. We learn to pray as a form of loving our enemy and hoping they have a “come to Jesus moment”/they change.

Pope Francis had enemies, but he still loved them:

• He has faced intense opposition from within the Church, including public criticism by some bishops, cardinals, and traditionalist groups. Instead of retaliating, he has responded with patience, prayer, and humility. He often said, “I am a sinner,” acknowledging his own faults and refusing to elevate himself above those who disagree with him. He invited a group of conservative U.S. bishops—some critical of his papacy—to the Vatican for dialogue, not rebuke. He welcomes honest disagreement and says the Church must be a place where people can speak freely without fear.
• After terrorist attacks in Europe and elsewhere, he repeatedly urged forgiveness and peace—not retaliation.
• He has prayed for those who persecute Christians, especially in the Middle East and Africa, urging people not to return evil for evil.
• He said that “Forgiveness does not mean impunity… but we can still love those who do us wrong. Loving an oppressor does not mean allowing them to keep oppressing.”
• He regularly led prayers for those who cause division, conflict, or war, asking God to “change hearts of stone into hearts of flesh.”

In the world that is in flux where I often ask “what would Jesus do”, I could also ask what Pope Francis would do. He was a breath of fresh air for me/for many in a world where I/others wonder, “Was that what Jesus would do?”. Now, I am not naive enough to not understand that sometimes hard decisions need to be made in the “business/real world” that don’t fit in the religious world. Nevertheless, if all can’t be happy, there is a right way and a wrong way of “doing it” (whatever that “it” is). HINT: Bringing a chainsaw to a DOGE rally is not the right way. Name calling, threatening, shaking down is not the right way. The “Art of the Deal” has pain and suffering as part of the “art”. Is that Christ-like? Many people are suffering now.

Of course, Pope Francis made changes within his “business” and the hierarchy of the cardinals, bishops, etc. within the Vatican that are the equivalent of a demotion, taking a voice away from someone. Moreover, the Catholic faith did not do enough with regard to the priest sexual abuses. The role of woman within the church could see some more change (deacons?). How the church deals with divorce can be archaic at times and incongruent with Christ-like. Some may ask, “Why doesn’t the Vatican sell some of its vast art collection for charity”?

There is/was room for improvement that could be more Christ-like. Nothing is perfect, but Pope Francis has made strides – big strides in each of those issue too. He didn’t just push issues under the rug. He asked the people what their issues were and he left the world listening and looking to advance the Catholic faith, and make the world a better place as well.

Pope Francis was a voice based on loving God, neighbor and even enemy. He also was a leader not just of the Catholic faith, but was an example to other faiths as well – both Christian and non-Christian.

Rest in heavenly peace Holy Father, and may God bless those making the decision for the next Pope. May they focus on the model of your Son, Jesus Christ, and of the man of love, Pope Francis.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

If you’re looking to try and get a feel of the broader market anxiety, look no further than Treasuries. Long-end yields are starting to rise again and that will keep risk sentiment on edge as we look to settle into the week. As things stand, traders and investors are slowly losing confidence on any imminent trade deals and US assets are being punished hard.

As a reminder, it was the bond market that got Trump to blink with his tariffs pause. And after two weeks of going through the mess, we’re in no better position to where we were back then. This was the situation when 30-year yields were at 4.90% on 10 April:

“As we know, it was the bond market – not the stock market – that got him to relent on his reciprocal tariffs position earlier this week.

And yet, Treasury yields are still surging as the market continues to kick and scream. So, what next?

We’re essentially playing a game of chicken where someone between Trump, China, or the Fed has to blink first.

Considering their response to all this, you wouldn’t want to bet on China to be the first to give in. That leaves only a battle between Trump and the Fed.

At this point in time, it’s not an easy call. If Powell & co. do step in with emergency purchases of Treasuries, it will provide some short-term relief. However, the message that it sends is that it just enables Trump to stay on his tariffs crusade for longer. As for Trump backing down further, that’s probably the best case scenario for markets – especially if he picks up the phone to call up Beijing.”

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.