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• Economy recovering moderately but sees uncertainty from US trade policy.
• Sees downside risks to economic outlook increasing due to the US trade policies.
• Cuts view on corporate sentiment for first time since March 2022.

There’s nothing new or surprising here. The expectations of a slowdown in global growth from US trade policies is what made the market to pare back the rate hike probabilities for the BoJ with just 12 bps of tightening seen by year-end.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 21/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Near-term growth outlook is more challenging.
• Rate cut supported by energy price drop and tariffs.
• Rates no longer a constraint on economic activity.
• ECB’s key indicators are moving in the right direction.
• More fragmented world economy can push up prices.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Inflation risk from trade tensions seems weak and could even be downward.
• Inflationary risk from a few weeks ago has gone.
• We are ready to act quickly depending on the data.
• We are in a “very choppy sea”.
• Agile pragmatism applies to the latest decision.
• Cannot say today what the ECB will decide in June.
• The ECB must be prepared for various possibilities.
• We do not see tensions on the markets, volatility has increased due to economic uncertainty.
• Fed’s Powell is doing his job very well because he is telling the truth as it is.

The market sees a 69% probability of a 25 bps cut in June and a total of 63 bps of easing by year-end.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• We need to determine whether it’s possible to end the war in Ukraine.
• Talking about a matter of days to make that clear.
• If not possible, the President will possibly say “we’re done”.
• We need to determine quickly whether it’s doable.
• If not possible, we have other priorities.
• Had positive meetings on Thursday.
• Hope to hear back from Ukrainians soon.
• If it’s not possible to end the war in Ukraine, we need to move on.
• There are a lot of other things going on in the world.
• We recognise Ukraine wants to feel it will be able to defend itself.
• We want to avoid thousands of people dying in the next year.
• If both sides are serious about peace, then we want to help, otherwise we will move on.
• We recognise European states have a stake in this.
• If peace in Ukraine is not about to happen, we need to know now.
• Spoke to Russia’s Lavrov on Thursday.
• Wanted Russia to know France and UK were constructive.

This reads like an ultimatum. The US either closes a peace deal soon, or it will abandon the mission.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

If there’s one thing that we’ve learnt from Trump over the years, it is that he loves to talk up a big game no matter the situation. Facts or not, that is a separate discussion. And when it comes to boasting about something or anything, it’s the same as well.

As the US and Japan conclude the first round of trade negotiations, Trump said that they made “big progress” in the talks this week. For what it’s worth, he also said that he is “very confident” about a deal with the EU and also that they would “make a very good deal” with China. Call me a skeptic but yeah, it’s not the first time we see Trump talk up something when the reality begs to differ.

In the case of the tariff talks with Japan, Akazawa was less upbeat about the situation as seen here.

There were no major details revealed but the only thing that seems to be agreed upon was that they are going to schedule more discussions in the weeks ahead. Is that really “big progress”?

We’ve seen this sort of episode before. If you recall back to 2019 when the US and China were discussing the Phase One trade deal, we basically got this wild contrast in communication between Trump and China:

Seems familiar?

Back then, Trump said that they struck “a very large deal” and that “Phase Two will begin immediately”. Meanwhile, China said that they only “agreed on the text of the deal, which is still subject to legal review” and that “Phase Two will depend on the implementation on Phase One”.

Of course, we all know how that neither side stuck to the deal whatsoever in the end. But putting that aside, there is a precedent for Trump to make a play on words to give out an entirely different meaning to the actual situation.

As such, keep that in mind when reading into the remarks – not just for Japan, but the entire tariffs saga this time around.

Now, I don’t doubt that there will be a trade deal between the US and Japan. Again, this is supposed to be one of the easiest battles for Trump to claim victory in this tariffs war. However, the details are going to be the key thing.

Japan was slapped with 24% reciprocal tariffs initially before the pause. Now, they’re facing the 10% blanket tariffs alongside the 25% auto tariffs separately. The question then becomes which tariffs will go away after both sides strike an accord?

If there is a compromise on other things instead and the 10% tariffs stay the course, that is going to be a tough example for everyone else. While it might seem good that they didn’t get hit with tariffs of 24% and “only” got 10%, it’s a case of Trump basically hoodwinking the world into believing that is a good thing.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The theme of dollar selling has been a major one since Trump ramped up the trade war and it’s continuing so far on Friday in Asian trade.

The US dollar is down 10-20 pips across the board, led by a decline in USD/CHF.

I think that pair is a key place to watch in the days ahead as it consolidates after falling to a 10-year low.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The IDC is just out with some smartphone stats:

• China smartphone shipments up 3.3% in Q1 (solid sign of growth)
• Huawei China sales +10%
• Apple China sales -9%
• Xiaomi was the top vendor with 18.6% share, followed by Huawei and Oppo with 18% and 15.7%, respectively

An iPhone was a status symbol for years in China but it appears the consumer is shifting to domestic preference.

Meanwhile, tariffs on China threaten to crush Apple’s margins in the United States.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Japan’s guidelines in managing its foreign reserves is to avoid causing volatility in markets
• Hard to say how US long-term interest rates would move as they will be driven by various factors

USD/JPY is quiet so far in Asia-Pacific trading, down 4 pips to 142.37.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg writes about the late-day buying in Chinese stocks this week, noting particularly strong bids in the final 20 minutes of trading in ETFs favored by China’s state-run agencies, or so-called National Team.

“The pick-up in trading in Huatai-Pinebridge CSI 300 ETF and China AMC SSE 50 ETF helped the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index advance for an eighth straight day, marking its longest winning streak since October.”

Chinese stock markets will open shortly and Trump’s positive comments earlier about a China deal could provide a lift.

I take the move a sing that Beijing is determined to protect Chinese investors at a time of turmoil. That’s a nice wind to have in your sails at a turbulent time.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The April 28 Canadian election is closing in and Liberal Mark Carney has built a considerable lead in the polls. He’s out with some comments on tariffs:

• Rules out matching US tariffs dollar-for-dollar
• Cites Canada’s small economy and the need for strategic pressure over symbolic motes
• New approach targets US industries selectively while minimizing harm to domestic sectors, with exceptions especially for automakers operating in Canada

I’m sensing more of a global shift to this kind of rhetoric. Whether that’s fear of American retribution of pragmatism is tough to discern as there are arguments for both.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 3.0% y/y
• Headline CPI 3.6% vs 3.7% prior
• Ex fresh food and energy 2.9% vs 2.6% prior
• CPI excluding food vs +1.5% prior
• CPI m/m vs -0.4% prior

Estimates ranged from 3.0% to 3.4% and it came in right in the middle.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.