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China foreign ministry, on U.S. tariffs:

• If the United States continues to play the tariff numbers game, China will pay no attention

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We didn’t get much, well none really, detail from the meeting:

• Japan economy minister Akazawa says agreed to hold a 2nd meeting with US this month

Ishiba says economy minister Akazawa reported the talks were constructive.

• talks will not be easy going forward
• Ishiba says he’ll visit the US at an appropriate time time to meet with Trump.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) miss forecasts

+5.4% y/y in March

• expected +14.1%, prior +7.6%

Exports to Taiwan, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Japan and South Korea increased y/y

• Exports to China declined.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan economy minister Akazawa

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trade balance data from Japan for March 2025

544.1bn JPY

• expected +485.3bn yen, prior +590.5bn

Exports +3.9%

• expected +4.5%, prior +11.4%

Exports to:

• US +3.1% y/y
• EY -1.1% y/y
• China -4.8% y/y
• Asia +5.5% y/y

Imports +2.0%

• expected +3.1%, prior -0.7%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan inflation indications from a Reuters poll.

• A growing majority of Japanese companies are preparing to raise prices in the face of rising labour and raw material costs

Of the firms polled, 13% said they had already increased prices in the business year that began April 1, while a further 70% said they are considering doing so. The widespread pricing pressure is likely to increase calls for government support to soften the impact on consumers.

Labour shortages and ongoing inflation are also driving wage increases. Nearly 70% of respondents said higher monthly salaries for new recruits were now unavoidable. “Prices are on the rise. The current wage level cannot get us new workers,” said an official at a steelmaker. A manager at a transportation equipment manufacturer added that wage hikes are necessary to attract talent in a country facing a declining birthrate and an ageing population.

Separately, research from Teikoku Databank shows that over 70% of Japanese companies plan to raise starting monthly salaries for new graduates this year, with the average increase coming in at ¥9,114 (about US$64) compared to last year.

Japanese official, including those at the Bank of Japan, will welcome the enws on rising wages and prices.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand data, Q1 2025 CPI:

+0.9% q/q

• expected +0.7%, prior +0.5%

+2.5% y/y

• expected +2.3%, prior +2.2%

more to come

Non-Tradeables +1.1% q/q (expected +0.8%) and +4.0% y/y

• tradeables +0.7% q/q (expected +0.8%)

NZD/USD a touch higher after the data:

***

“Tradable” and “Non-tradable” inflation are terms used to describe different aspects of inflation based on the nature of the goods and services involved.

1. Tradable Inflation:

   • Definition: Tradable inflation refers to inflation in goods and services that are traded internationally.
   • Examples: Commodities like oil, metals, agricultural products, and manufactured goods like electronics and automobiles.
   • Characteristics: Prices of tradable goods are often influenced by global market conditions, exchange rates, and international supply and demand dynamics. For instance, if the price of oil increases globally, it will lead to tradable inflation in countries that import oil.
   • Impact: The inflation of tradable goods can be significant for countries that rely heavily on imports or exports. Changes in exchange rates can also have a substantial impact on tradable inflation.

2. Non-tradable Inflation:

   • Definition: Non-tradable inflation refers to inflation in goods and services that are not internationally traded.
   • Examples: Services like healthcare, education, and local utilities, as well as goods with high transportation costs relative to their value, or those that are typically consumed where they are produced.
   • Characteristics: Prices of non-tradable goods and services are primarily influenced by domestic factors such as local wage levels, property rents, and domestic policies. These prices tend to be more stable compared to tradable goods, but can vary significantly from country to country.
   • Impact: Non-tradable inflation is more directly controlled by domestic monetary and fiscal policies. It is less subject to external shocks but can be influenced by domestic factors like labor market conditions and local regulatory changes.

In summary, tradable inflation is primarily driven by international factors and market conditions, whereas non-tradable inflation is driven by domestic economic conditions and policies.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Aussie dollar traders are preparing for another busy trading day as they analyze the latest employment data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, due out midway through the Asian trading session. The market is expecting a 40k increase in jobs in March—a sharp turnaround from last month’s -52.8k print—with the unemployment rate expected to creep up 0.1% to 4.2%. Any significant deviation from these expectations could trigger major moves in the currency, which is currently hovering near key technical levels.

The Aussie has consolidated near its annual high over the past few days after a turbulent trading month that saw it fall 7% before rallying the same amount, fueled by updates on U.S. tariffs. A stronger print today could see the Aussie break through current levels and move into a fresh topside range, with the longer-term target now sitting just under 68 cents. A weaker print would likely see the pair drop back into recent ranges, with short-term support now resting at the 200-day moving average of 0.6183.

Resistance 2: 0.6408 – 2025 High
Resistance 1: 0.6390 – Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 0.6183 – 200-Day Moving Average
Support 2: 0.5912 – Trendline Support and 2025 Low

The post Trade the Aussie Dollar on Australian Employment Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Here are the forecasts from Deutsche Bank for the years ahead:

Deutsche Bank’s reasoning is as follows.

Key medium-term USD bearish drivers:

• Supportive EU vs. US fiscal stance: thanks to German fiscal policy.
• Valuations: Purchasing power parity in the 1.25-1.30 range acts as medium-term anchor for EUR/USD amid geopolitical uncertainty.
• US asset risk premium & weaponing risk: Persistent global diversification away from USD assets, driven by US economic policy unpredictability and concerns over sanctions.
• US cyclical slowdown: A weaker growth trajectory to achieve medium-term inflation objectives, with added drag from unpredictable policymaking.

Short-term outlook:

• YE-25 forecasts remain conservative.
• The likely dovish ECB reaction function in the near-term will constrain the widening in short-term EU-US interest rate differentials plus broader uncertainty on US policy path in coming months.

Risks:

• A faster US climbdown on aggressive trade policy and a more growth-supportive US budget bill is likely to slow down the dollar downtrend, while a continued erratic shift in trade policy combined with larger than expected fiscal tightening is likely to lead to accelerated dollar downside.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Ford Motor Co. has warned dealers that vehicle prices could rise on models produced from May onwards if President Trump’s auto tariffs remain in place.

While its current nationwide discount program will continue through 2 June, the company said pricing for newer models may need to be adjusted due to rising costs.

Reuters cite a memo they have seen for the info.

• Ford’s Andrew Frick said that if the current tariff policy holds, price increases will likely begin with May production, though customers wouldn’t see those changes until early July.
• However, prices on vehicles already in dealer inventory will remain unchanged.

This is despite Ford being relatively well-insulated from the worst effects of the tariffs, with 80% of its U.S. sales produced domestically.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Awaiting news on this.

I’ll be keen to hear the readout from Japanese officials, I suspect it’ll be more reliable than any we’ll get from the US side. I’m not suggesting the US side is deceptive, its just that the grasp they have on reality is mainly lacking.

Oh, here we go, Trump says ‘big progress’, whatever that means.

Trump me with Ishiba a few weeks ago.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold has surged to new highs amid persistent overnight buying from Asia, with volumes well above average. Goldman Sachs highlights that despite the rally, positioning is not yet stretched. Their bullish year-end forecast now stands at $3,700/oz, with a $4,500/oz tail-risk scenario under potential Fed policy shifts.

Key Points:

• Asian Buying Momentum:Spot gold broke Monday’s highs, marking eight consecutive overnight rallies driven by strong Asia session demand.

• Elevated Volumes:Trading volumes are currently running ~40% above the 10-session average at this time of day.

• Positioning Still Roomy:CFTC, ETF, and open interest data indicate speculative positioning is not yet extended, suggesting room for further upside.

• Goldman’s Upgraded Outlook:GS recently raised their 2025 year-end forecast to $3,700/oz, citing:

  • Increased ETF inflows

  • Continued central bank buying

  • Elevated geopolitical and macro uncertainty

• Tail Scenario:If the Fed is forced to subordinate policy due to debt concerns or US reserve currency shifts, GS sees gold potentially spiking to $4,500/oz.

Conclusion:

Goldman views the current rally as sustainable, with strong physical demand and investor inflows from Asia underpinning the move. Positioning remains far from euphoric, supporting their constructive outlook, while macro risks could trigger a super-spike scenario in the months ahead.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.