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Could US port traffic really crash this year?

The latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates is subject to whatever tariff regime rules the day but it’s a useful view on how long it will take for tariff effects to truly hit trade.

The numbers show a short-term bump ahead of a rapid plunge.

Their data shows that February saw 2.06 million TEUs handled (up 5.2% year-over-year), and March is projected at 2.14 million TEUs (up 11.1% year-over-year), the outlook darkens significantly from May onward (TEU stands for “Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit,” which is the standard unit of measurement used in the shipping industry to quantify cargo capacity or volume):

• May: Expected to fall to 1.66 million TEUs (-20.5% y/y ), ending 19 consecutive months of growth
• June: Projected at 1.57 million TEUs (-26.6% y/y), the lowest volume since February 2023
• July: Forecast at 1.69 million TEUs (-27% y/y)
• August: Expected to be 1.7 million TEUs (-26.8% y/y)

These are catastrophic numbers for the shipping industry and they forecast a 15% overall drop in 2025 cargo volumes, though these numbers were before the latest U-turn on electronics tariffs.

For me, the takeaway here is that we will have to wait until May to see trade as a real headwind to

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Oil is green today, which has been a rare occurrence in April. WTI crude oil is up 83-cents to $62.33 as broad sentiment improves on hopes for a phone call between Trump and Xi.

OPEC hasn’t wasted any time downgrading its economic view today as it cut its demand growth forecast to +1.3 million barrels per day from +1.45 mbpd. They note US tariffs as one part of the reasons for the demand revision.

The one spot I would watch would be China, which may finally ramp up consumer stimulus. Eamonn earlier wrote about a Reuters pull highlighting expectations for rate cuts this quarter.

Giuseppe wrote about the oil technicals earlier.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +1.2%
• Inventories vs +% prior
• Inventory-to-sales ratio vs prior

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• 100% not expecting recession
• Rare earth limits being studied very carefully

There are the usual talking points here but it’s tough to take anything seriously from Trump’s deputies as he seemingly changes his mind constantly.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Dollar selling returns to start European morning trade
• Markets consolidate ahead of Trump’s update on semiconductor tariffs
• The bond market stays on edge in the new week
• What are the interest rates expectations for G8FX?
• China president Xi arrives in Hanoi
• China welcomes partial U.S. tariff rollback but calls it only a ‘small step’
• Trump has directed for tariff talks to begin immediately with South Korea, Japan, India

Markets:

• GBP leads, CHF lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 1.6%
• US 10-year yields down 4 bps to 4.456%
• Gold down 0.4% to $3,222.04
• WTI crude up 1.7% to $62.54
• Bitcoin up 1.3% to $84,817

The market is holding on to some hopeful optimism to start the week, with all eyes staying on the US-China trade rhetoric.

Over the weekend, we had Trump come out to confirm that the US will be paring down tariffs on key electronics to 20%. That is while waiting to place all of that in a different tariffs basket, which might take up to a month or longer.

That helped to ease some concerns of further escalation and is helping to keep equities underpinned to start the new week. S&P 500 futures were up around 1% in Asia before pulling a little bit higher in European trading amid some pushing and pulling. European indices are also holding up, posting gains of a little over 2% for the time being.

Despite that, FX traders maintained their conviction in selling the dollar in the new week. EUR/USD nudged up to just above 1.1400 briefly but is still up 0.3% to 1.1390 on the day. Meanwhile, GBP/USD climbed up from 1.3120 to touch 1.3200 during the session as sterling is an outperformer today alongside the antipodes.

USD/JPY fell to a low of 142.25 in Asia before nudging up to 143.00, then falling back again during European morning trade. There is a slight bounce back now to 143.15, though the pair is still down 0.2% on the day.

The Swiss franc is the biggest loser though, with USD/CHF seen up 0.5% to 0.8190 and EUR/CHF up 0.8% to 0.9330. SNB in play perhaps?

Elsewhere, the bond market continues to stay on edge for the most part with 30-year yields in the US holding near 4.87% currently. There’s not much of a let up there and I would take that as a more solid indicator of broader market sentiment for the time being.

It’s all about watching for headline risks again. So, let’s see what Trump has to offer later in the day with Xi out visiting Vietnam and ironing out deals with Southeast Asian countries this week.

This is a market that is still fragile but at the same time, sentiment can quickly change on a flip of a dime.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

After the huge selloff caused by the worse than expected tariffs announcement on
April 2 and the surprising production boost from OPEC+, the sentiment in the crude oil market deteriorated meaningfully.

The pause in the reciprocal tariffs last Wednesday though marked a short term bottom as growth fears eased on expectations of more de-escalation ahead.

More positive news on the trade war front should keep the market supported, while further deterioration could weigh again.

On the 1 hour chart above, we can see the big upward spike triggered by the pause in reciprocal tariffs. We’ve got a pullback from the key resistance around the 62-64 area, but the price is now coming back to retest it. The price action have also formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern with the neckline around the resistance.

The sellers will likely step in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to confirm the pattern and increase the bullish bets into the 72.00 handle next.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 15/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

If you take a look at the markets, you will notice that they pretty much haven’t moved. That’s probably because everyone is waiting for the Trump’s update on semiconductor tariffs.

The decision on Friday to exempt electronic devices like smartphones, laptops and so on from tariffs turned out to be a temporary measure and
those products will face separate levies.

Commerce Secretary Lutnick said that tariffs on electronics will be included in semiconductor tariffs and that they will probably come in a month or two. Again, more uncertainty.

Trump on Sunday said that there was no tariff ‘exception’ announced on Friday. These products are
subject to the existing 20% fentanyl tariffs, and they are just moving
to a different tariff ‘bucket.’

Trump also added that he will provide an update on the topic today.

We wait…

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The pause in reciprocal tariffs last Wednesday boosted Bitcoin and risk assets in general as growth fears eased and the market started to look forward to more de-escalation ahead.

We also got some exemptions last Friday on tech which helped risk assets but Trump eventually poured cold water on positive expectations as he said that they will be short-lived and they are planning for new tariffs.

On the daily chart above, we can see that Bitcoin is now trading right at the key trendline. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the 70,000 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting the 90,625 level next.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

This is still one of the more important spots to watch with regards to the whole trade war and tariffs saga at the moment. Yields blowing up in the past week was a key reason in prompting a U-turn from Trump on his reciprocal tariffs policy. And despite scaling back on tariffs on key electronics over the weekend, the bond market remains in a tricky spot to start the week.

In the equities space, there is some hopeful optimism. But for Treasuries, there is still some apprehension. 30-year yields at 4.87% are still on the high side and holding more than 50 bps above the lows from early last week. Even 10-year yields are at 4.46% currently, and likewise is some 58 bps above the lows from last week.

If you want to switch it around, 30-year yields are down just 15 bps from the high last week of 5.02%. Meanwhile, 10-year yields only down by 13 bps from the high last week of 4.59%.

Taking all of that in, it indicates that the bond market remains very much on edge in the new week. Traders will be looking to what Trump will do next but if anything, it will take some time or some bigger gesture to calm the nerves here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Effects of US tariffs are not yet reflected in current economic indicators
• The risk of a significant global slowdown has increased considerably
• That will also have an impact on the German economy
• Uncertainty about development of German exports is exceptionally high due to tariffs policy

Just when you think the German economy might be turning a corner, then US tariffs are now going to kick in. With a surging euro, it only adds to concerns about the situation for the industrial sector and exports. Will the ECB be quietly thinking about a 50 bps rate cut?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING
EVENTS:

• Monday: New Zealand Services PMI, NY Fed Consumer Inflation
  Expectations.
• Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, UK Employment Report, German
  ZEW, Canada CPI.
• Wednesday: Japan Tankan, China Industrial Production and
  Retail Sales, UK CPI, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production and
  Capacity Utilisation, BoC Policy Announcement, US NAHB Housing Market
  Index, Fed Chair Powell.
• Thursday: New Zealand Q1 CPI, Australia Employment
  report, ECB Policy Announcement, US Housing Starts and Building Permits,
  US Jobless Claims.
• Friday: Japan CPI (Good Friday Holiday)

Tuesday

The UK
Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%. The Average Earnings
are expected at 5.7% vs. 5.8% prior, while the Ex-Bonus Earnings are seen at 6.0%
vs. 5.9% prior. The data is unlikely to influence market expectations as the
focus remains on the tariff negotiations and the US-China developments. The
market is currently pricing 76 bps of easing by year-end with an 85%
probability of a 25 bps cut at the upcoming meeting.

The Canadian CPI
Y/Y is expected at 2.6% vs. 2.6% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.6%
vs. 1.1% prior. The Trimmed-Mean CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.0% vs. 2.9% prior,
while the Median CPI Y/Y is seen at 3.0% vs. 2.9% prior.

Inflation has been
moving higher recently after the aggressive BoC easing and the tariffs are
expected to keep inflation higher while weighing on growth. The market sees 36
bps of easing by year-end with a 61% probability that the central bank will
hold rates unchanged this week.

Wednesday

The UK CPI Y/Y is
expected at 2.7% vs. 2.8% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.4% vs. 0.4%
prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.5% vs. 3.5% prior, while Services CPI
Y/Y is seen at 4.9% vs. 5.0% prior.

Again, the data this
month is unlikely to influence market’s expectations that much as the focus
remains on tariff negotiations. The market is currently pricing 76 bps of
easing by year-end with an 85% probability of a 25 bps cut at the upcoming
meeting.

The US Retail
Sales M/M is expected at 1.4% vs. 0.2% prior, while the ex-Autos figure is seen
at 0.4% vs. 0.3% prior. The focus will be on the Control Group figure which is
expected at 0.6% vs. 1.0% prior.

Consumer spending
has been stable in the past months which is something you would expect given
the positive real wage growth and resilient labour market. More recently
though, we’ve been seeing some marked easing in consumer sentiment due to the
ongoing trade wars which could weigh on spending going forward.

The BoC is
expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.75%. As a reminder, the BoC cut interest
rates by 25 basis points to 2.75% as expected at the last meeting amid concerns
over weaker growth ahead due to the trade uncertainty and US tariffs. The
central bank emphasized a cautious approach to future decisions, balancing the
upward pressure on inflation against the downward pressure on weaker demand. The
market expects just one last cut by year-end.

Thursday

The New Zealand Q1
CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.3% vs. 2.2% prior, while the Q/Q figures is seen at
0.7 vs. 0.5% prior. The market sees 103 bps of easing by year-end with a 72%
probability of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting. All these market
expectations about interest rates were influenced by the global market rout
following Trump’s aggressive tariffs. That’s where the focus is now. A reversal
or easing in the trade war would diminish the aggressive rate cuts
expectations.

The Australian
Employment report is expected to show 35K jobs added in March vs. -52.8K in February,
and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 4.2% vs. 4.1% prior. The US trade
war and the global market selloff pushed the market to expect 107 bps of easing
by year-end with a 40% probability of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting.

The ECB is
expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. The market then
expects at least two more rate cuts by year-end. Interest rates expectations
have been shaped by the ongoing trade war and the recent 90-days pause for
reciprocal tariffs helped to alleviate the aggressive pricing. Again, it’s all
about the trade war now as the data remains old news.

The US Jobless
Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.

Initial Claims
remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims hover
around cycle highs.

This week Initial
Claims are expected at 226K vs. 223K prior, while there’s no consensus for
Continuing Claims at the time of writing although the prior release saw a
decrease to 1850K vs. 1893K prior.

Friday

The Japanese Core
CPI is expected at 3.2% vs. 3.0% prior. Given the global market rout and
aggressive risk off sentiment, traders scaled back their rate hikes
expectations and they now see the BoJ remaining on hold for the rest of the
year. Of course, this is all connected to the trade war so an easing and positive
developments on that front should increase the expectations for a rate hike by
year-end.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.