Headlines:

• Gold stays upbeat in European morning trade
• The resilience in the US dollar could be a tell: is the market signalling a bottom?
• Markets keep the calm for now as we enter new territory in the Russia-Ukraine conflict
• EU’s von der Leyen: We need more sanctions on Russia
• Kremlin refuses to comment on drones incursion to Poland
• US-EU trade deal is the best possible one, says von der Leyen
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 5 September +9.2% vs -1.2% prior

Markets:

• AUD leads, CAD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
• US 10-year yields up 1.7 bps to 4.091%
• Gold up 0.7% to $3,650.03
• WTI crude oil up 0.9% to $63.22
• Bitcoin up 0.7% to $112,268

It was mostly a quiet session as markets are taking a bit of a breather ahead of more key US data this week.

Geopolitical tensions made headlines overnight with Poland having to shoot down drones from Russia as they crossed the western border of Ukraine. It’s not the first time that we saw the airspace get violated but it is the first time that the boundaries were pushed enough for a NATO country to take action in getting involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

That being said, Russia is not making a big deal of things and keeping radio silent on the matter. So, that’s enough to say that they’re not wanting to make a fuss over the matter.

Major currencies were largely muted on the session, with little in terms of movements and conviction. The dollar is steady but remains vulnerable on the week, as we await the US PPI data later and more importantly the US CPI data tomorrow.

EUR/USD and USD/JPY are both flattish at 1.1705 and 147.45 respectively, resting within 30 pips ranges on the day. So, that sort of tells you what kind of a session it was in European morning trade.

In the equities space, stocks are staying upbeat with European indices keeping the bounce this week to push higher again. Meanwhile, US futures are also posting slight gains with tech shares leading the charge once again.

But overall, it is once again precious metals that is hogging the spotlight with gold finding bids following some profit-taking yesterday as it pushes back up to $3,650. Meanwhile, silver is also up 0.6% today to creep back above the $41 mark.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Market index 297.7 vs 272.5 prior
• Purchase index 169.1 vs 158.7 prior
• Refinance index 1012.4 vs 902.5 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.49% vs 6.64% prior

This is never a market moving release. Mortgage applications are generally inversely correlated to mortgage rates.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• No comment as questions on reports of the drones should be directed to the defence ministry
• EU and NATO accuse Russia of provocations on a daily basis

As far as everything goes, Moscow choosing to play this down is a good thing. As mentioned before this, it’s not the first time that Russia has violated the airspace beyond the western border of Ukraine. However, this is the first time that it did invite a response by Poland to shoot the drones down.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There’s not too much else going on in European trading so far, with a lack of catalysts not helping to keep things interesting. But as has been the case since last week though, gold continues to be a standout mover as it is pushing higher once more. The precious metal is up 0.8% again today to $3,653 as it looks to keep the bullish run going.

I probably don’t have to keep beating the drums on why gold prices are racing higher as there has been a multitude of reasons for quite a while now. And the technical breakout after consolidating since the end of May just adds to that conviction.

However, the second half of the week might be trickier for gold traders though. All eyes will be on the US CPI report to see if there will be any more curveballs being thrown before we get to the Fed next week. And we’ll get a bit of a teaser of that from the US PPI report later in the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• We ensured that Europe got the best possible deal out there
• We have put our companies at a relative advantage
• Our direct competitors are facing much higher US tariffs
• The deal provides crucial stability for our relations with the US at a time of global insecurity

Of course you’d expect her to back the deal that she managed to come up with. But needless to say, not many were too happy about it in response to what the terms of the deal were. That especially German automakers, as they will continue to get hit hard by US tariffs for now.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Europe stands in full solidarity with Poland after violation of airspace
• In sanction talks, we are looking at phasing out Russian fossil fuels faster
• Also looking at sanctions on the third party countries
• Need to work on a new solution to finance Ukraine using frozen Russian assets
• Will launch an ‘Eastern flank watch’ programme to improve surveillance of countries bordering Russia
• We will build a drone wall

Again, there’s a lot of talk but in the end it is actions that speak louder than words. So, we’ll see. Anyway, all this support is going to pile on the cost on European economies. And the timing is not pretty with defense budgets and energy bills soaring while inflation has not quite retreated fully. There will be more concerns about deficits again, not least with yields shooting up as of late.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• EU stands in full solidarity with Poland
• We must raise the cost on Moscow
• Need to strengthen support for Ukraine and invest in Europe’s defence
• EU plays a major role and we will support initiatives like ‘The Eastern Shield’

So far, the reaction is that there is a lot of politicking and scrutiny against Russia. But overall, I’d say that the mood is quite calm as it is mostly just words being flung about. That and especially the fact that Moscow is not saying anything about this whole ordeal. So, that’s at least helping to keep markets calmer as well.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.79%, Shanghai Composite up 0.11%, Hang Seng up 1.23% ASX up 0.34%
• Commodities : Gold at $3,680.45 (-0.05%), Silver at $41.692 (0.85%), Brent Oil at $67.12 (1.10%), WTI Oil at $63.36 (0.73%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.082, UK 10-year yield at 4.6240, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6644

News & Data:

• (USD) NFIB Small Business Index 100.8  to 100.5 expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets traded mostly higher on Wednesday, lifted by overnight gains on Wall Street and optimism over U.S. interest rate cuts. Sentiment was supported by downward revisions in U.S. jobs data and anticipation of key inflation figures due later this week. Regional currencies also firmed against the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. Labor Department will release producer and consumer price inflation data today and tomorrow, which could shape the Fed’s rate decision next week. Markets currently expect nearly three rate cuts this year, starting in September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 93.7% chance of a quarter-point cut and a 6.3% probability of a half-point move.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 15.20 points, or 0.17%, to 8,818.70, led by banks and tech firms, though miners and energy stocks declined. Iluka Resources slumped over 11% after announcing plans to halt production at its Cataby mine. The Aussie dollar traded at $0.659.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 225 points, or 0.52%, to 43,684.29, with gains in SoftBank and tech stocks offsetting weakness in automakers and banks.

Elsewhere, New Zealand, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, and Taiwan rose between 0.7% and 1.3%, while China and Malaysia were flat.

On Wall Street, the Dow gained 0.4%, the Nasdaq added 0.4%, and the S&P 500 advanced 0.3%, all ending at record highs.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Core PPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD PPI m/m

The post Wednesday 10th September 2025: Asian Stocks Gain on Fed Cut Optimism first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 10 September 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

During today’s Asia session, markets demonstrated strong risk-on sentiment driven primarily by three key factors: China’s deflation data reinforcing Fed easing expectations, Japan’s improved manufacturing outlook following US trade deals, and continued optimism around AI-driven technology growth. South Korean equities led regional gains on domestic policy reform hopes. At the same time, commodity markets saw divergent moves with gold hitting new records on rate cut bets and oil rising on Middle East tensions. Combining dovish Fed expectations, improving Asia-Pacific sentiment, and technology sector momentum created a supportive backdrop for risk assets.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
September 10, 2025, presents a critical juncture for global markets as the U.S. releases key inflation data that will influence Federal Reserve policy decisions. With 88% probability of a rate cut next week, focus shifts to whether data supports aggressive easing. China’s deeper deflation adds to global economic concerns, while record gold prices reflect heightened uncertainty. European markets continue modest gains despite French political turmoil, and Asian equities rally on rate cut hopes.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core PPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

PPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar finds itself at a crossroads on September 10th, 2025, with traders maintaining cautious positioning ahead of crucial inflation data. While rate cut expectations for next week’s Fed meeting appear solidified, the magnitude remains in question. The dollar’s technical position suggests continued vulnerability, particularly if inflation data fails to challenge dovish Fed expectations. Key support levels around 97.15-97.40 will be critical to watch, while any upside surprise in inflation could trigger a relief rally toward 98.00 resistance.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50% at its meeting on July 29–30, 2025, keeping policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting.
• The Committee reiterated its objective of achieving maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. While uncertainty around the economic outlook has diminished since earlier in the year, the Committee notes that challenges remain and continued vigilance is warranted.
• Policymakers remain highly attentive to risks on both sides of their dual mandate. The unemployment rate remains low, near 4.2%–4.5%, and labor market conditions are described as solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated, with the PCE price index at 2.6% and a core inflation forecast of 3.1% for year-end 2025, up from earlier projections; tariff-related pressures are cited as a contributing factor.
• The Committee acknowledged that recent economic activity has expanded at a solid pace, with second-quarter annualized growth estimates near 2.4%. However, GDP growth for 2025 has been revised downward to 1.4% (from 1.7% projected in March), reflecting expectations of a slowdown in the coming quarters.
• In the revised Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is expected to average 4.5% in 2025, and headline PCE inflation is forecast at 3.0% for the year, with core PCE at 3.1%. Policymakers continue to anticipate that inflation will moderate gradually, with ongoing risks from tariffs and global conditions.
• The Committee reaffirmed its data-dependent and risk-aware approach to future policy decisions. Officials stated they are prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede progress toward the Fed’s goals.
• As previously outlined, the Committee continues the measured run-off of its securities holdings. The pace of balance sheet reduction, which slowed since April (monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities reduced from $25B to $5B, while holding agency MBS cap steady at $35B), was left unchanged this month to support orderly market functioning and financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Core PPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

PPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s performance on Wednesday, September 10, 2025, reflects a market taking a brief pause after achieving record highs while maintaining its strong underlying bullish momentum. The precious metal continues to benefit from a powerful combination of dovish Federal Reserve expectations, geopolitical uncertainties, persistent central bank buying, and dollar weakness. While technical indicators suggest some short-term consolidation may be warranted, the fundamental drivers supporting gold’s rally remain firmly in place, positioning the metal for potential further gains as key economic data and Fed policy decisions unfold in the coming days.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro faces a complex landscape on September 10, 2025, characterized by the ECB’s likely pause in rate cuts, continued political instability in France, and ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. While technical indicators suggest potential for further EUR/USD appreciation, structural challenges, including slow implementation of competitiveness measures and political fragmentation, pose medium-term risks. The ECB’s Thursday decision and accompanying guidance will be crucial for determining the euro’s near-term trajectory, with markets particularly focused on signals about future policy direction amid evolving global economic conditions.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council kept the three key ECB interest rates unchanged at its July 24 meeting, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%, following eight consecutive cuts preceding this decision.
• The decision to hold rates steady was driven by evidence that inflation is stabilizing near the Governing Council’s medium-term target of 2%. Policymakers communicated that further rate moves would be data-dependent, explicitly refraining from pre-committing to any future path amid persistent global and domestic uncertainties.
• According to the latest Eurosystem staff projections, headline inflation is expected to remain around 2.0% for 2025, with projections indicating 1.6% for 2026 and a rebound to 2.0% in 2027. Downward revisions from previous forecasts primarily reflect lower energy price assumptions and a stronger euro. Inflation excluding energy and food is seen averaging 2.4% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026–2027, little changed from prior projections.
• Real GDP growth for the Eurozone is forecast at 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027. The projections note that a strong first quarter offsets a weaker outlook for the rest of 2025. While business investment and exports are dampened by ongoing trade policy uncertainties—including recent U.S. tariff measures—rising government investment, particularly in defense and infrastructure, is expected to progressively underpin growth.
• Household spending should be supported by firm real income gains and a still-solid labor market. More favorable financing conditions are expected to help strengthen the economy’s resilience to further global shocks. Wage growth, although still elevated, continues to moderate, with profit margins partially absorbing cost pressures.
• Amid significant geopolitical and economic uncertainty, the Governing Council underscored its commitment to ensuring inflation stabilizes sustainably at the 2% target. The ECB reiterated it would pursue a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach to its monetary policy stance.
• Future rate decisions will be guided by the assessment of incoming economic and financial data, the outlook for inflation and underlying inflation dynamics, and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. The Council continues to stress that it is not pre-committed to any specific rate trajectory.
• The asset purchase program (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are continuing to decline in an orderly and predictable way, as the Eurosystem has ceased reinvesting principal payments from maturing securities.
• The next meeting is on 11 September 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

SNB Chairman Schlegel speaks (11:45 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc demonstrates exceptional strength on September 10, 2025, driven by safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties and solid domestic economic fundamentals. While facing headwinds from 39% US tariffs, Switzerland’s inflation remains within target ranges, supporting the SNB’s decision to maintain accommodative monetary policy. Chairman Schlegel’s hawkish stance on negative rates provides additional currency support, with the upcoming September 25th meeting expected to confirm policy stability. The franc’s outperformance against traditional safe havens like the yen reflects its enhanced status in the current risk environment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.25% to 0% on 19 June 2025, marking the sixth consecutive reduction.
• Inflationary pressure has decreased further as compared to the previous quarter, decreasing from 0.3% in February to -0.1% in May, mainly attributable to lower prices in tourism and oil products.
• Compared to March, the new conditional inflation forecast is lower in the short term. In the medium term, there is hardly any change from March, putting the average annual inflation at 0.2% for 2025, 0.5% for 2026, and 0.7% for 2027.
• The global economy continued to grow at a moderate pace in the first quarter of 2025, but the global economic outlook for the coming quarters has deteriorated due to the increase in trade tensions.
• Swiss GDP growth was strong in the first quarter of 2025, but this development was largely because, as in other countries, exports to the U.S. were brought forward.
• Following the strong first quarter, growth is likely to slow again and remain rather subdued over the remainder of the year; the SNB expects GDP growth of 1% to 1.5% for 2025 as a whole, while also anticipating GDP growth of 1% to 1.5% for 2026.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 25 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Mediumk Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound sterling faces a complex environment on September 10, 2025, supported by sticky inflation that limits the Bank of England’s easing options and recent economic data that has exceeded expectations. However, significant headwinds persist from fiscal uncertainties ahead of the Autumn Budget and broader political concerns. Technical indicators suggest near-term resilience around 1.3540, but the currency’s trajectory will largely depend on upcoming UK inflation data, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and clarity on the government’s fiscal plans. The divergence between cautious BoE policy and expected Fed easing provides underlying support for GBP/USD, though volatility is likely to remain elevated as these competing factors play out.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted on 7 August 2025 by a majority (exact split likely 5–3–1 or similar, based on expectations) to cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%. Multiple members supported the move, citing fragile economic growth and signs of disinflation, while others preferred a larger reduction, and at least one member voted to hold the rate steady due to concerns about persistent inflation.
• The Committee unanimously decided to continue reducing the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes by £100 billion over the next 12 months, targeting a balance of £558 billion by October 2025. As of 7 August, the gilt stock stands at £590 billion.
• Disinflation has been substantial since 2023 owing to policy tightening and the fading of external shocks. However, an unexpected uptick in headline CPI inflation—to 3.6% in June—reflects pass-through from regulated prices and earlier energy price rises, as well as signs of sticky core inflation.
• Headline CPI inflation is now 3.6%, above the Bank’s 2% target, reflecting regulated and energy price effects. The Committee expects inflation to remain around this level through Q3 before resuming its downward trend into 2026.
• UK GDP growth remains weak. Business and consumer surveys point to lackluster activity, and the labor market continues to loosen, with increasing evidence of slack. Wage growth has softened but remains above pre-pandemic norms.
• Pay growth and employment indicators have moderated further, and the Committee expects a significant slowing in pay settlements over the rest of 2025.
• Global uncertainty remains elevated, especially with rising energy prices and supply disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East and renewed trade tensions. These factors prompt the MPC to remain vigilant in monitoring cost and wage shocks.
• The risks to inflation are considered two-sided. With the outlook for growth subdued and inflation persistence less clear, the Committee argues that a gradual and careful approach to further easing is warranted, with future policy decisions highly data-dependent.
• The Committee’s bias is still towards maintaining monetary policy at a restrictive stance until there is firmer evidence that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target over the medium term. Further adjustments to policy will be decided on a meeting-by-meeting basis, with scrutiny of developments in demand, costs, and inflation expectations.
• The next meeting is on 18 September 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar faces significant headwinds on September 10, 2025, driven primarily by a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions and mounting expectations for aggressive Bank of Canada rate cuts. With unemployment at nine-year highs, tariff-sensitive industries shedding jobs, and money markets pricing in a 90%+ probability of rate cuts, the loonie is approaching its weakest levels since August. While oil prices provide some support, trade uncertainty and weak economic fundamentals are likely to keep the currency under pressure in the coming weeks, particularly ahead of the September 17 Bank of Canada decision.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% as of July 30, marking the third consecutive meeting with rates on hold.
• The Council cited ongoing U.S. tariff adjustments and unresolved trade negotiations as driving factors for elevated economic uncertainty. The persistence of tariffs well above early-2025 levels continues to present downside risks for growth and keeps inflation expectations elevated, supporting a cautious approach to monetary easing.
• The lack of a clear U.S. policy path, plus frequent threats of additional tariffs, led the Bank to highlight risks to Canadian exports and broader demand, amplifying uncertainty about future growth.
• Canada’s economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%, slightly stronger than the original forecast, while the composition of GDP growth was largely as expected. Consumption slowed from its very strong fourth-quarter pace, but continued to grow despite a large drop in consumer confidence.
• Canadian GDP growth is expected to be near 0% in Q2 2025, closely aligned with the more optimistic scenario outlined earlier in the year. Weakness in manufacturing activity—driven by both U.S. trade disruptions and sector-specific challenges like wildfires—contributed to softer output. A partial recovery is anticipated in Q3 due to rebuilding efforts and stronger retail sales in June.
• Consumer spending slowed, especially as households front-loaded durable goods purchases ahead of tariffs. Housing activity remains subdued, with resales and construction still soft despite some government tax relief measures.
• Headline CPI inflation continued to ease, holding close to 1.7% in June, aided by declines in energy prices following the removal of the fuel charge. However, the Bank’s measures of core inflation and underlying price pressures moved up further due to higher import costs from tariffs and lingering supply disruptions.
• The Governing Council reiterated that it will carefully weigh ongoing upward inflation pressure from tariffs and cost shocks against the gradual downward pull from economic weakness. While additional rate cuts remain possible, timing and scale will depend on trade policy developments and inflation’s path.
• The next meeting is on 17 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA crude oil inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Wednesday’s oil price gains reflect a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, supply decisions, and market fundamentals. While the Israeli strike on Qatar and Trump’s tariff threats provided short-term support, underlying market conditions remain challenging, with expectations of significant oversupply developing in the coming months. The modest nature of OPEC+’s production increases and growing inventory builds signal a market transition toward surplus conditions, despite current geopolitical risk premiums. Traders are closely monitoring both political developments and fundamental supply-demand dynamics as the market navigates between short-term volatility and longer-term oversupply concerns.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 10 September 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

As we look to European trading today, major currencies are not doing all too much while equities are continuing to hold steadier going into the session ahead. US futures are up, led by tech shares, while European futures are marginally higher following the gains in Wall Street yesterday. In other markets, gold is nudging higher again after some profit-taking yesterday as geopolitical tensions made waves since overnight trading.

In US trading yesterday, we saw the BLS post the largest downwards annual revision to non-farm payrolls on record here. If anything, it’s a glaring issue that the stats bureau can be so off base in data accuracy but all that just gave easy ammunition to Trump to fire home his points about the Biden economy and the Fed falling behind the curve.

The market reaction was rather controlled, with traders still just holding on to fully pricing in a 25 bps rate cut for next week. Meanwhile, there’s ~67 bps of rate cuts priced for year-end. There’s no strong push for a 50 bps rate cut call for next week just yet, but that will have to depend on the US CPI report tomorrow.

Aside from that, we also saw a sudden attack from Israel towards Qatar overnight. Israel launched airstrikes in trying to target Hamas leaders and that’s making for a step up in geopolitical tensions in the region. For some context, Qatar has been acting as a mediator in Gaza ceasefire talks so for them to take on collateral damage is quite terrible – at least in terms of optics.

US president Trump has already expressed his displeasure about the situation with reports suggesting that Hamas leaders did manage to survive the latest attacks. The latter fact could yet provoke more attacks by Israel, so we’ll have to watch and see.

Meanwhile, we also got another notable development in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as Poland felt compelled enough to have to shoot down Russian drones which crossed into their territory. That marks a new escalation or at least a significant development since the conflict began in 2022. That as it marks the first time a NATO country has had to draw its sword to defend itself against Russia’s incursions.

For now, markets are holding calmer but this will be another spot to keep an eye out for once we start to see Russia speak more about the situation.

Looking ahead today, the main draw will be the US PPI report which will act as a bit of a litmus paper before we get to the US CPI report tomorrow.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

In case you missed it, there was a new development overnight in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Russian drones were said to have crossed Ukraine’s border, enough to prompt a response from Poland for the first time since the conflict began in 2022.

Poland called the incursion as “an unprecedented violation of Polish airspace by drone-type objects”. Adding that those objects “repeatedly violated” Polish airspace and that “weapons have been used, and operations are underway to locate the downed objects”.

Again, this is not the first time that Russian drones have flown way far west of Ukraine but there has been an increase in the frequency of such a situation. Polish fighter jets have been called upon a couple of times already as of late to stand guard as drones were moving very close to the border.

However, this is the first time ever that a NATO country is getting involved and has directly engaged against Russian assets since the whole Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022.

So far, Polish armed forces are highlighting three regions (marked below) as being the most vulnerable if the situation escalates further.

As we look to European trading, markets are not reacting all too much just yet. Equity futures are still sitting higher while the FX market is looking rather sanguine and tentative, with traders perhaps focusing more on US data this week.

But as geopolitical tensions gets added into the mix, gold will be able to keep finding reasons to stay more bid after a run to fresh record highs earlier this week. The precious metal is up another 0.5% today to $3,643 currently, though coming after some profit-taking in trading yesterday.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price is rising toward the pivot and could make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 98.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 97.37

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 98.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is falling toward the pivot and could make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1678
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 1.1633
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1736
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is falling toward the pivot and could make a bullish bounce toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 171.91
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 170.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 173.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is falling toward the pivot and could make a bullish bounce toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8643
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 0.8622
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 0.8666
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is falling toward the pivot and could make a bullish bounce toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3459
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 1.3391
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3544
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is rising toward the pivot and could make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 199.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 197.51
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 200.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is approaching the pivot and could make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7986

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.7909
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8031
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is approaching the pivot and could make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 147.86

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 145.95Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 148.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                          

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price is rising toward the pivot and could make a bearish fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3877

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.3768

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3924

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is falling toward the pivot and could make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6557
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 0.6521

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6619
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is falling toward the pivot and could make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5914
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 0.5887

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5964

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is falling toward the pivot and could make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 45,297.47
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 44,909.26

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 45,771.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is rising toward the pivot and could make a bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 23,938.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 23,382.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,274.67

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is falling toward the pivot and could make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,455.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 6,346.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,591.51

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and could make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 110,920.02
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 109,509.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 112,919.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,226.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 4,060.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,497.19
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could rise toward the pivot and could make a bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 64.16
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 62.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 65.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,598.56
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 3,5009.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,674.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

The post Wednesday 10th September 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.