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Russian drone incursions into Poland jolted geopolitics but left markets largely unmoved, with only minor USD gains. Meanwhile, a U.S. court ruling kept Fed Governor Lisa Cook in place, and China slipped back into deflation.

• Ethereum Analysis Today
• US CPI data – Goldman Sachs preview: sees tariffs fuelling August core CPI above 3%
• The US dollar has lost a few points following the news that Fed Governor Cook safe for now
• US court rules Fed’s Lisa Cook can stay on as a Governor for now
• Polish military confirms operation underway against Russian incursion, weapons deployed
• China August inflation data: CPI -0.4% y/y (expected -0.2%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1062 (vs. estimate at 7.1359)
• US member of Congress says Russia attacking Poland, an act of war
• Oracle could have the biggest single-day gain for a US company with a $500bn+ market cap
• Chinese insurers boost equity holdings to record levels, set to drive bull market
• Deutsche Bank raises S&P 500 target to 7,000, boosts 2025 EPS forecast to $277
• Trump presses EU to join U.S. in 100% tariffs on China, India to squeeze Russia.
• Reuters Tankan: Japan manufacturers at 3-year peak, services rebound to +27
• Oracle expects half a trillion dollars in booked cloud orders, stock rises 27% after hours
• Reports of Russian drone incursions into Poland (breach of NATO airspace).
• National Australia Bank sees Fed cutting rates from September, 125bps total by end-2026
• ICYMI: Barclays cuts 2026 Brent forecast to $66 on OPEC+ supply unwind expectations
• Jamie Dimon warns U.S. growth slowing after biggest jobs revision in 20 years
• Trump says trade negotiations with India are still continuing
• Chile’s central bank sets benchmark interest rate at 4.75% (previously 4.75%)
• US Supreme Court to hurry its review of Trump’s tariffs, will begin in … November. LOL.
• Oil: private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build vs. draw expected
• Trump tells the European Union to slam China & India with 100% tariffs, to pressure Putin
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent says he has a plan on how to keep US dollar dominance
• investingLive Americas FX news wrap: Benchmark revisions slash 911K jobs from US payrolls

The main geopolitical jolt during the session was Russia’s drone incursions into Poland — and by extension NATO airspace. Initial reports suggested a handful of Iranian-made Shahed drones had strayed across the border, but estimates soon rose to more than ten, fuelling speculation of a deliberate move by Moscow. Warsaw shut both Modlin and Chopin airports to civilian traffic, while the U.S. scrambled F-35s to patrol Polish skies. A Polish MEP branded the incident an “act of war,” a phrase echoed by a U.S. congressman, as a quarter of Poland went into lockdown and a third of the population were told to shelter.

Financial markets barely stirred: the dollar added only a few ticks.

Elsewhere, a U.S. court granted Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s request for a temporary restraining order, ensuring she remains on the FOMC and will vote at the September meeting while her case against President Trump proceeds. The ruling clarified that “cause” for dismissal applies to conduct in office, not to prior actions. The dollar dipped slightly on the headlines.

From China, August inflation data showed CPI back in deflation at –0.4% y/y, the steepest drop in six months. PPI stayed negative at –2.9% y/y but the pace of decline eased to its smallest in four months.

In corporate news, Oracle shares surged more than 25% in after-hours trade on a wave of multibillion-dollar cloud deals.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) +0.65%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) +1%
• Shanghai
  Composite +0.16%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) +0.25%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast |  10 September 2025

What happened in the U.S session?

The September 9, 2025, US session was characterized by a paradoxical market response where equity indices reached record highs despite the largest jobs revision in history. The 911,000 downward revision to payrolls data solidified expectations for Fed rate cuts while simultaneously supporting risk assets. The most impacted instruments were equities (particularly healthcare and financial stocks), Treasury bonds (with rising yields), the strengthening dollar, and energy commodities benefiting from supply constraints and geopolitical tensions. Market attention now turns to this week’s inflation data, which will provide crucial input for the Fed’s September policy decision.

What does it mean for the Asia sessions?

Wednesday’s trading in Asia will be dominated by China’s inflation data, ongoing Fed rate cut speculation, and Japan’s political transition. The combination of weak US labor data, persistent Chinese deflationary pressures, and geopolitical tensions is creating a complex environment favoring safe-haven assets like gold while supporting risk assets through monetary easing expectations. Traders should monitor US PPI data later in the week as it could influence the magnitude of the Fed’s rate cut and subsequent Asian market reactions.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core PPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

PPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar faces a pivotal week with inflation data that could either reinforce or challenge Fed rate cut expectations. While markets are largely convinced of a September rate cut, the extent and pace of future easing will depend heavily on Thursday’s CPI report. The dollar’s technical position suggests a continued bearish bias unless inflation significantly exceeds expectations. Key levels to watch include support at 97.00 and resistance at 98.37, with a break below 97.00 potentially targeting the year-to-date lows near 96.37.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50% at its meeting on July 29–30, 2025, keeping policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting.
• The Committee reiterated its objective of achieving maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. While uncertainty around the economic outlook has diminished since earlier in the year, the Committee notes that challenges remain and continued vigilance is warranted.
• Policymakers remain highly attentive to risks on both sides of their dual mandate. The unemployment rate remains low, near 4.2%–4.5%, and labor market conditions are described as solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated, with the PCE price index at 2.6% and a core inflation forecast of 3.1% for year-end 2025, up from earlier projections; tariff-related pressures are cited as a contributing factor.
• The Committee acknowledged that recent economic activity has expanded at a solid pace, with second-quarter annualized growth estimates near 2.4%. However, GDP growth for 2025 has been revised downward to 1.4% (from 1.7% projected in March), reflecting expectations of a slowdown in the coming quarters.
• In the revised Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is expected to average 4.5% in 2025, and headline PCE inflation is forecast at 3.0% for the year, with core PCE at 3.1%. Policymakers continue to anticipate that inflation will moderate gradually, with ongoing risks from tariffs and global conditions.
• The Committee reaffirmed its data-dependent and risk-aware approach to future policy decisions. Officials stated they are prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede progress toward the Fed’s goals.
• As previously outlined, the Committee continues the measured run-off of its securities holdings. The pace of balance sheet reduction, which slowed since April (monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities reduced from $25B to $5B, while holding agency MBS cap steady at $35B), was left unchanged this month to support orderly market functioning and financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Core PPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

PPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s historic rally to new record highs above $3,670 per ounce reflects a powerful convergence of fundamental drivers that show little sign of abating. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, U.S. dollar weakness, sustained central bank buying, and persistent geopolitical tensions have created an exceptionally favorable environment for precious metals. With major institutions forecasting continued gains toward $3,700-$4,000 levels, gold appears positioned to extend its remarkable 2025 performance as investors seek refuge from economic uncertainty and currency debasement concerns.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar faces a complex environment on September 10, 2025. While domestic economic data shows resilience with strong GDP growth and improving business conditions, consumer sentiment has retreated from recent highs amid concerns about the economic outlook. The currency is primarily benefiting from US dollar weakness as Fed rate cut expectations intensify following disappointing US jobs data.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at its September meeting on 8–9 September 2025, following a 25 basis point reduction at the August meeting. This maintains a cautious yet supportive stance, with the decision largely anticipated given recent evidence of inflation settling within the target band.
• Inflation readings continue to ease, with headline CPI most likely tracking near 2.1–2.3%—comfortably within the 2–3% target range. September quarter figures are pending, but leading indicators show further moderation in non-housing components, even as insurance and housing-related costs remain sticky.
• The RBA’s preferred trimmed mean inflation is estimated at around 2.7%–2.9%, further reflecting progress toward the midpoint of the target range. Energy and food volatility still create some short-term uncertainty, but underlying inflation is broadly on track.
• Global conditions are a key source of risk. While U.S.–EU trade tensions have stabilized slightly, volatility in equities and commodities persists, with uncertainty feeding through to Australia’s trade and export outlook.
• Domestic demand shows tentative improvement. Real household incomes and a stabilizing housing sector have underpinned modest consumption growth, though business investment remains uneven—service sectors outperforming manufacturing and construction.
• Labour market tightness persists, but momentum continues to slow from earlier in the year. Employment gains remain, but job vacancies and hiring intentions have softened, with underutilization rising marginally for the second straight month.
• Wage growth has slowed in line with easing labour pressures, but unit labour costs remain elevated due to weak productivity. The RBA continues to flag subdued productivity as a medium-term cost risk.
• Forward indicators suggest household consumption may be softer than previously forecast. Elevated rents and high borrowing costs are dampening discretionary spending, despite modest income recovery.
• The Board continues to highlight the risk that household spending could underperform, potentially weighing on business investment and job creation if confidence remains subdued.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, in line with greater inflation control and ongoing economic rebalancing. The decision to hold rates recognizes both progress and ongoing uncertainties, with future moves explicitly tied to incoming data.
• The Reserve Bank reinforced its goals of price stability and full employment, stating readiness to adjust policy if economic or inflation outcomes diverge from baseline projections.
• The next meeting is on 29 to 30 September 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

RBNZ Gov Hawkesby speaks (11:15 pm GMT)

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar has experienced a notable recovery in early September 2025, driven primarily by US Dollar weakness following disappointing employment data and supportive Chinese trade figures. While the currency has reached three-week highs around 0.5940, domestic economic challenges, including RBNZ dovish policy, weak GDP growth, and rising unemployment, continue to limit substantial upside potential. The NZD’s near-term trajectory will largely depend on global risk sentiment, Fed policy decisions, and China’s economic performance, with technical resistance around 0.60 serving as a key level to watch.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.00% on 20 August 2025, marking a three-year low and continuing the easing cycle after July’s pause. The vote was split 4-2, with two members advocating a 50-basis-point cut, highlighting diverging views within the Committee.
• Policymakers indicated that significant uncertainty and a stalling economic recovery prompted this move, leaving the door open for further rate cuts later in the year, with a possible trough around 2.5% by December.
• Annual consumer price index inflation rose to 2.7% in the June quarter and is expected to reach 3% for the September quarter—at the upper end of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band—but medium-term expectations remain anchored near the 2% midpoint..
• Despite the near-term uptick, headline inflation is projected to return toward 2% by mid-2026, as tradables inflation pressures ease and significant spare capacity continues to dampen domestic price momentum.
• Domestic financial conditions are broadly aligning with MPC expectations, as lower wholesale rates have translated into reduced borrowing costs for households. However, declining consumption and investment demand, higher unemployment, and subdued wage growth reflect ongoing economic slack.
• GDP growth stalled in the second quarter of 2025, contrasting with earlier projections. High-frequency indicators point to continued weakness driven by rising prices for essentials, weakening household savings, and constrained business lending.
• The MPC cautioned that ongoing global tariff uncertainties and policy shifts, especially recent changes in US trade regulations, could amplify market volatility and present both upside and downside risks to New Zealand’s recovery.
• Subject to medium-term inflation pressures continuing to ease as projected, the MPC signaled scope for further OCR cuts, possibly down to 2.5% by year-end, consistent with the latest Monetary Policy Statement outlook.

       ● The next meeting is on 22 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen faces a complex environment on September 10, 2025, balancing political uncertainty against supportive economic fundamentals. While Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation initially weakened the currency, stronger GDP data and potential BoJ rate hikes provide underlying support. The yen’s trajectory will likely depend on the outcome of the October LDP leadership election, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and how effectively Japan’s new leader can stabilize the political situation. Current trading around 147.3 per dollar reflects this uncertain but potentially strengthening outlook for the Japanese currency.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 31 July, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
• The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
• The BOJ will maintain its gradual reduction of monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). The scheduled amount of long-term government bond purchases will, in principle, continue to decrease by about ¥400 billion each quarter from January to March 2026, and by about ¥200 billion each quarter from April to June 2026 onward, targeting a purchase level near ¥2 trillion in January to March 2027.
• Japan’s economy is experiencing a moderate recovery overall, though some sectors remain sluggish. Overseas economies are generally growing moderately, but recent trade policies in major economies have introduced pockets of weakness. Exports and industrial production in Japan are essentially flat, with any uptick largely driven by front-loaded demand ahead of U.S. tariff increases.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices (excluding fresh food) remains in the mid-3% range. This reflects continued wage pass-through, previous import cost surges, and further increases in food prices, particularly rice. Expectations for future inflation have begun to rise moderately.
• The effects of the earlier import price and food cost increases are expected to fade during the outlook period. There may be a temporary stagnation in core inflation as overall growth momentum softens.
• Looking forward, the economy is likely to see a slower growth pace in the near term as overseas economies feel the pinch of ongoing global trade policies, putting downward pressure on Japanese corporate profits. Accommodative financial conditions are expected to buffer these headwinds somewhat. In the medium term, as global growth recovers, Japan’s growth rate is also expected to improve.
• With renewed economic expansion, intensifying labor shortages, and a steady rise in medium- to long-term expected inflation rates, core inflation is projected to gradually pick up. By the latter half of the BOJ’s projection period, inflation is forecast to move in line with the 2% price stability target.
• There are multiple risks to the outlook, with especially elevated uncertainty regarding the future path of global trade policies and overseas price trends. The BOJ will continue to closely monitor their impact on financial and foreign exchange markets, as well as on Japan’s economy and inflation.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 17 to 18 September 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA crude oil inventories ( 2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

The oil market on September 10, 2025, presents a complex picture of competing forces. While geopolitical tensions from Israel’s Qatar strike and potential Russian sanctions provide near-term price support, fundamental factors point toward continued weakness. OPEC+’s modest production increase signals recognition of demand concerns, but the group’s commitment to unwinding cuts ahead of schedule suggests confidence in market absorption capacity.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 10 September 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Push Higher Ahead of Inflation Data – Dow up 0.4%

US stock indices again pushed higher in trading yesterday, with both the S&P and Nasdaq registering record closes. The Dow jumped 0.43% to 45,711, the S&P added 0.27% to 6,512, and the Nasdaq gained 0.37% to 21,879. Treasury yields and the dollar both regained some of their recent losses ahead of inflation data due out later today. The DXY gained 0.31% to 97.77, while the 2-year yield added 7 basis points to move back to 3.556% and the 10-year yield added 4.4 basis points to move back to 4.084%. Oil prices pushed higher after Israel attacked Hamas leaders in Qatar, with Brent up 0.68% to $66.47 and WTI up 0.69% to $62.70 a barrel. Gold pulled back after recording another new high, finishing the day down 0.25% at $3,625.81 an ounce.

Inflation Data Key This Week

All eyes will be on US inflation data this week, after expectations for more Fed rate cuts were priced into the market following last week’s employment numbers. FX traders will be paying particular attention to the numbers, with the dollar on the back foot against most of the majors. On-target or lower-than-expected prints from either tonight’s PPI, Thursday’s CPI numbers, or both, would see the market strongly pricing in more rate cuts into the new year. At the moment, the market is looking at a 61% chance of seeing three rate cuts by year-end, and this week’s numbers could go a long way toward deciding whether we have two or three cuts in the pipeline. This could have significant implications for the dollar in the coming months.

Economic Event Calendar Livens Up for Traders Today

The macroeconomic calendar kicks into action today with some key inflation data due out across the sessions. Geopolitical updates will again provide stimulus for markets, in addition to fundamental updates, with a strong focus on the Middle East after yesterday’s missile attack by Israel on Hamas leaders in Qatar. The Asian session will see Chinese markets in focus with both CPI (exp. -0.2% y/y) and PPI (exp. -2.9% y/y) numbers due out. There is no tier-1 data due out in the London session today; however, we do hear again from Swiss National Bank Chair Martin Schlegel, which could see moves in the franc. The major data update of the day comes in the New York session with the first of two key inflation updates for the week. The US PPI data is due out, with both the month-on-month PPI and Core PPI numbers expected to print at +0.3%. The weekly US Crude Oil Inventory data is due out later in the session, but expect the PPI numbers to dominate sentiment, especially if they miss expectations.

The post General Market Analysis – 10/09/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Goldman Sachs is bracing for a hotter U.S. inflation print in August, with core CPI seen rising 0.36% m/m — just above the 0.30% consensus — pushing the annual rate to 3.13%.

Headline CPI is forecast to climb 0.37% m/m, led by firmer food (+0.35%) and energy (+0.60%) costs, while pricier cars and airfare are also expected to have nudged inflation higher.

The bank warned tariffs are adding fuel to the mix, particularly in categories like communications, furnishings and recreation. Goldman expects levies under President Donald Trump to keep monthly core CPI running at about 0.3% in the near term. But beyond the tariff bump, economists see underlying trend inflation continuing to cool as housing and labour-related pressures ease.

—

Sticky CPI forecasts may curb Fed rate-cut bets, supporting USD and weighing Treasuries. Perhaps, but the rate cut train has a head of steam for now.

—

Data is due on Thursday, September 11, 2025 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1230 GMT.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Residents in Eastern Poland are urged to shelter-in-place by the Polish Armed Forces. Translated text:

Attention, during today’s attack by the Russian Federation carrying out strikes on targets located in the territory of Ukraine, our airspace was repeatedly violated by drone-type objects.

An operation is underway aimed at identifying and neutralizing the objects. On the orders of the Operational Commander of the Polish Armed Forces, weapons have been deployed, and services are actively working to locate the downed objects.

We emphasize that the military operation is ongoing, and we urge people to stay at home. The most threatened areas are the Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, and Lubelskie voivodeships.

The Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces is monitoring the current situation, and the forces and resources under its command remain fully prepared for immediate response.

Earlier:

• Reports of Russian drone incursions into Poland (breach of NATO airspace).
• US member of Congress says Russia attacking Poland, an act of war

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

CPI and PPI data from China for August 2025

China moving further into deflation. Despite ongoing stimulus efforts, admittedly incremental.

CPI YY -0.4%

• expected -0.2%, prior 0.0%
• for m/m 0% (expected +0.1%, prior +0.4%)

PPI YY -2.9%

• expected -2.9%, prior -3.6%
• for m/m 0%

As for PPI, the anti involution policy not showing much of an impact so far. As I posted earlier:

• In July Chinese policy shifted to “Anti-involution”, trying to address intense, unproductive competition that leads to inefficiency rather than progress. The term refers to destructive, excessive competition with little progress, gained prominence after President Xi Jinping vowed to regulate chaotic price wars, especially in sectors like solar, EVs, and steel. Its an uphill battle though, overcapacity spans competitive private-sector industries.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A US member of Congress has harsh words on Russian actions in Poland:

• Russia is attacking NATO ally Poland with Iranian shahed drones less than a week after President Trump hosted President Nawrocki at the White House. This is an act of war, and we are grateful to NATO allies for their swift response to war criminal Putin’s continued unprovoked aggression against free and productive nations. I urge President Trump to respond with mandatory sanctions that will bankrupt the Russian war machine and arm Ukraine with weapons capable of striking Russia. Putin is no longer content just losing in Ukraine while bombing mothers and babies, he is now directly testing our resolve in NATO territory. Putin stated that “Russia knows no borders.” Free and prosperous nations will teach Russia about borders.

@RepJoeWilson

Markets are really not responding to the news from a few hours ago now.

• Reports of Russian drone incursions into Poland (breach of NATO airspace).

4 airports in Poland are closed, including Warsaw’s airports.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the European Union to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese and Indian goods, according to U.S. and EU officials. The move, conveyed in a call with EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan, is part of a U.S. push to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin by targeting two of Moscow’s biggest oil buyers.

Earlier headline:

• Trump tells the European Union to slam China & India with 100% tariffs, to pressure Putin

Via Reuters:

Washington indicated it would impose matching tariffs if Brussels joined the effort, officials said. The request marks a potential shift in EU strategy, which has leaned on sanctions rather than tariffs to squeeze Russia.

Trump has long criticised Beijing and New Delhi for propping up Russia’s economy through crude purchases. He raised tariffs on India earlier this year but has so far stopped short of the most punitive measures. While warning Europe to reduce its own exposure to Russian energy, Trump also hinted at warmer U.S.-India trade ties, posting on social media that he was working with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to address barriers.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The BLS preliminary estimate of nonfarm payrolls benchmark revision would:

• Decrease March 2025 level of employment by -911K or -0.6%.

The consensus was for a decline of -682K. Forecast range from -200K to -900K

The revision is the largest on record.

In 2024 it showed a revision of -548K

Looking at the different sectors, the biggest decline was in trade, transportation, and utilities (- 226K). There were no sectors that showed a positive revision. Professional business services saw a downward revision of – 158K and leisure and hospitality a decline of – 176K.

• Total nonfarm: -911K (-0.6%)

• Total private: -880K (-0.7%)

  • Mining and logging: -4K (-0.7%)

  • Construction: -29K (-0.4%)

  • Manufacturing: -95K (-0.8%)

  • Trade, transportation, and utilities: -226K (-0.8%)

    • Wholesale trade: -110.3K (-1.2%)

    • Retail trade: -126.2K (-0.8%)

    • Transportation and warehousing: +6.6K (+0.1%)

    • Utilities: +3.7K (+0.6%)

  • Information: -67K (-2.3%)

  • Financial activities: -39K (-0.4%)

  • Professional and business services: -158K (-0.7%)

  • Private education and health services: -35K (-0.1%)

  • Leisure and hospitality: -176K (-1.1%)

  • Other services: -51K (-0.9%)

• Government: -31K (-0.1%)

The data shows a weaker employment picture than previously reported, and certainly would motivate the Fed to cut. It also highlights the data problem that has started to creep into the economic releases.

US yields remain higher, with the two-year up 2.2 basis points at 3.517%. The 10-year yield is also up 2.2 basis points at 4.068%.

US stocks are mixed with the Dow industrial average down -0.3%. The S&P is up 0.7% and the NASDAQ index is up 0.10%. Recall the NASDAQ index closed at a record level yesterday.

The S&P index record high close came in at 6507.95 on September 8. The current price is at 6500.70

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Japanese manufacturers’ confidence climbed to its strongest level in more than three years in September, supported by easing trade tensions after Tokyo struck a tariff deal with Washington in July.

• The Reuters Tankan survey showed the manufacturers’ index rose to +13 from +9 in August, marking a third straight monthly gain and the highest since August 2022.
• Sentiment is expected to soften slightly to +11 by December.

The auto and transport machinery sector led the improvement, with its index jumping to 33, the best since late 2023, as firms reported steady overseas orders despite weak domestic production. Other industries such as textiles, oil refining and precision machinery were more downbeat, citing sluggish orders and the lingering impact of tariffs.

The non-manufacturing index rebounded to +27 in September from +24 in August, with real estate, retail and transport improving, though wholesalers and IT firms reported weaker conditions.

• The outlook for December was steady at +27.

Despite global trade uncertainty, Japan’s economy has been underpinned by solid consumption, with GDP expanding at an annualised 2.2% in Q2, according to revised data.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reports of Russian drone incursions into Poland.

This is likely to be unintentional. Well, lets hope so!

More:

• Rzeszów Airport in Poland has been closed
• warning to airman issues
• says closure is due to “Unplanned military activity”

More:

• At least three “Shahed” attack drones have reportedly been downed
• Ukrainian Air Force and aircraft with the NATO Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) are working together against the Russian drones

–

Little market response.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Barclays trimmed its 2026 Brent crude forecast by $4 to $66 a barrel, citing expectations that OPEC+ will fully phase out voluntary supply cuts by September 2026.

The bank noted OPEC+’s decision over the weekend to lift October production targets by 137,000 bpd as the first step in rolling back the 1.66 million bpd in cuts introduced in May 2023. At the current pace, the rollback would be completed within a year.

Barclays said markets took comfort that the pace of the unwind is slower than feared, pointing out that August and September increases were four times larger than October’s move. Still, the bank highlighted resilient spot fundamentals and a wide valuation gap as reasons it remains constructive on oil since early July.

—

Earlier:

• Oil: private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build vs. draw expected

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.