IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 November 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

During the latest U.S. session, price action was relatively muted because Thanksgiving closed U.S. cash markets and no major U.S. data were scheduled, so moves were driven mainly by positioning around recent U.S. data and global releases rather than fresh U.S. headlines. The instruments most affected were the U.S. dollar, major FX pairs (especially EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and commodity currencies), and precious metals such as gold and silver, which traded mainly on follow‑through from prior sessions and thin liquidity.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

For the Asia session and handover into London, focus on positioning ahead of Eurozone flash CPI and German preliminary HICP, monitor price action around Indian assets into the GDP release, and prepare for potential CAD volatility around Canada’s GDP later in the day. Risk sentiment remains cautiously constructive but data‑dependent, so intraday strategies may favor trading around these scheduled events and watching the US dollar’s reaction to any growth or inflation surprises.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is trading broadly sideways to slightly softer today, with the Dollar Index hovering around the mid‑99s as markets await fresh US data and remain focused on upcoming Fed rate cuts into December. The DXY is fluctuating near the 99.4–99.6 zone after stabilizing there on Thursday, reflecting a lack of clear direction but capping the rebound seen earlier in the week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressure but still warranting vigilance amid tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is consolidating just above the 4,150 USD/oz area, holding within the 4,050–4,150 range after pulling back from October’s record high near 4,380. The dominant drivers today are shifting expectations for a December Fed cut, softer US data, and ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainty that keep safe‑haven demand broadly supported.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly stronger, supported by sticky inflation and a cautious-but-firm RBA outlook, while broader moves remain constrained by global risk sentiment and expectations for Fed easing. AUD/USD has recently pushed back toward the mid‑0.65 area after rebounding from three‑month lows near 0.645, helped by a softer US dollar and firmer Australian data.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand dollar is trading near a one‑month high around 0.57 against the US dollar after a dovish-but-end-of-cycle” rate cut by the RBNZ, with follow‑through support from stronger domestic data and thin US holiday liquidity. Price action into Friday, 28 November, is focused on whether this bullish correction above 0.5680 can extend while markets wait for New Zealand’s current account and other late‑day data prints.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen is trading slightly stronger into Friday, supported by ongoing talk of possible Bank of Japan (BOJ) tightening and FX intervention, but it remains near multi‑month lows against the US dollar in the mid‑155–156 area. Market focus today is on fresh Japanese data (monetary base and services PMI) and BOJ communication, which could shift expectations for a potential rate hike in December.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are trading soft near recent one‑month lows, with both Brent and WTI still on track for a fourth straight monthly decline as the market focuses on oversupply risks, Russia‑Ukraine diplomacy, and this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. Price action remains headline‑driven, but the macro backdrop is clearly skewed toward a mild surplus narrative rather than a supply shock.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down -0.07%, Shanghai Composite up 0.21%, Hang Seng down -0.23% ASX up 0.05%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,221.65 (0.76%), Silver at $52.235 (1.98%), Brent Oil at $63.04 (0.27%), WTI Oil at $59.05(-0.08%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.010, UK 10-year yield at 4.4530, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6775

News & Data:

• (USD) Unemployment Claims  216K  to 226K expected
• (USD) Core Durable Goods Orders m/m  0.6%  to 0.2% expected
• (USD) Durable Goods Orders m/m  0.5%  to 0.5% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets were mixed on Friday, taking in slightly positive signals from Europe and no guidance from Wall Street due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Traders continued to respond to growing expectations of a U.S. Fed rate cut in December after soft economic data and dovish comments from several Fed officials. The global equity rally seen over the past week also slowed.

Markets now price in an 84.7 percent chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December, sharply higher than 30.1 percent just a week earlier, with additional cuts expected next year.

In Australia, stocks traded slightly higher in choppy action, extending gains from earlier sessions. The S&P/ASX 200 held above 8,600 as strength in gold miners and tech names offset weakness in iron ore miners and financials. Major miners were mixed, while technology stocks such as Appen, Xero and WiseTech gained. Banks traded mostly lower, and gold miners advanced modestly.

Japanese shares were slightly weaker as the Nikkei slipped below 50,150, pressured by declines in exporters and tech stocks, though financials provided some support. SoftBank gained, while Fast Retailing and major chip equipment makers declined. Economic data showed retail sales and industrial production rising in October, both beating expectations. Inflation in Tokyo’s Ku-area remained above the Bank of Japan’s target, while unemployment held at 2.6 percent.

Elsewhere, South Korea, Hong Kong and Malaysia traded lower, while New Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan edged higher. European markets finished modestly positive, and crude oil extended its decline ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD GDP m/m

The post Friday 28th November 2025: Asian Markets Mixed as Rate-Cut Optimism Eases and Global Rally Loses Steam first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 99.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 99.11

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 100.07
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.1546

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1501

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1651

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 179.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 178.67
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 181.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8782

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8744
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8815
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3147

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3012
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3292
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 206.39

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 204.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 208.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8030

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7987
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8109
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 155.02

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 154.08

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 157.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                       

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4073

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3970

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4134

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6491

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6439

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6573

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5688

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5637

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5762

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 46,864.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 46,442.68

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,005.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 23,488.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 22,917.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,956.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 6,773.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 6,673.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,870.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 89,178.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 81,214.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 97,784.84

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3,058.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,858.64

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,230.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 58.99

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 57.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 60.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,129.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,093.68
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,205.06
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets Global does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets Global assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets Global is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

The post Friday 28th November 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 28/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Climb into Thanksgiving Holiday – Nasdaq up 0.8%

US equities extended their winning streak overnight, with major indices posting another round of gains as confidence around imminent Fed rate cuts continued to build. The Dow advanced 0.67% to 47,427, the S&P 500 added 0.69% to 6,812, and the Nasdaq outperformed with a 0.82% rise to 23,214. Treasury markets were largely steady ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with the 2-year yield inching up 1.4 bps to 3.473%, while the 10-year held just under 4% at 3.992%. The US dollar drifted lower again, the DXY slipping 0.18% to 99.59. In commodities, oil prices pushed higher for a second session as doubts grew over any near-term progress toward a Ukraine ceasefire. Brent rose 0.98% to $63.06, and WTI gained 1.09% to $58.59. Gold also firmed, climbing 0.80% to close at $4,163.23.

Gold Pushes Up to Key Resistance Levels

Gold prices pushed higher again in trading yesterday as haven demand and rate-cut expectations combined to drive the world’s favourite precious metal to fresh one-week highs. Gold had retreated recently as haven demand dropped with the prospect of a peace deal being struck in Ukraine; however, in the last couple of days, concerns have increased that the hoped-for ceasefire will not eventuate anytime soon, and gold has rallied. A huge turnaround in Fed rate-cut expectations has also assisted the move. The market was pricing in just a 40% chance of a cut at the next meeting at the end of last week, but dovish comments from some key Fed members have seen those chances jump to 85%, resulting in dollar selling across all financial products. Gold now sits just below key long-term resistance at $4,173.00 on the daily chart, and a break higher would see the monthly high of $4,244.94 challenged in the coming sessions.

Thanksgiving Day Holiday to Dominate Trading Sessions

With Thanksgiving ahead, today’s macro calendar is light, and trading conditions are expected to quieten further. Even though the holiday is just in the US, traditionally the market tends to be quiet across all three trading sessions, and unless we see any major geopolitical updates hit the newswires, most traders are expecting to see range-bound conditions today. We have already seen some strong retail sales data out of New Zealand (+1.9% vs exp +0.6%), which has lent some support to the Kiwi dollar in the Asian session; however, there is little else on the calendar for the remainder of the session. The London session does see the release of the ECB’s Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, but most market participants aren’t expecting that to move the dial too far for the euro. Holiday market conditions will hit swiftly once the US time zone commences, and liquidity is likely to thin into the later hours, especially once Europe closes for the day, leaving markets more susceptible to outsized moves should unexpected headlines emerge.

The post General Market Analysis – 27/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 27 November 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
During today’s Asia session, the main macro focus was Japan’s Tokyo core CPI release and ongoing expectations for early Federal Reserve rate cuts, which together supported Asian equities and weighed modestly on the US dollar. The instruments that moved most on these themes were regional stock indices (especially Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi), Asian currencies versus the dollar (notably the Japanese yen), and associated equity sectors such as Japanese exporters and Asian tech

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Europe opens and ahead of the U.S. day are a cluster of euro-area sentiment data, ECB communication, and generally thinner U.S. trading conditions due to the Thanksgiving holiday, which can all amplify moves in FX and rates markets. Activity in Asia-Pacific has already featured some New Zealand and Australian data that may influence risk sentiment and antipodean currencies into the European session.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. dollar is slightly weaker today, with the dollar index drifting lower as markets favor risk currencies like the New Zealand and Australian dollars after recent central-bank moves and diverging rate expectations. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading just under the 100 mark after a modest rise yesterday, but it remains down over the past year and is retreating from a recent multi‑month high.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading slightly lower but remains near recent highs around 4,150–4,180 USD per troy ounce on Thursday, 27 November 2025, after a strong run-up this month. Price action is choppy and range‑bound as traders weigh softer expectations for near‑term Federal Reserve rate cuts against still‑elevated geopolitical and inflation risks.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro is trading slightly softer today but within recent ranges, with moves driven mainly by expectations for future European Central Bank (ECB) policy and broader risk sentiment rather than a single headline shock. The EUR has been relatively stable against the U.S. dollar so far today, with USD/EUR fluctuating around the lower end of this week’s range after a modest dollar pullback.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, supported by stable banking-sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc is trading slightly firmer today but remains near recent lows against the US dollar, with markets focused on soft Swiss data, steady SNB policy, and the impact of the recent US–Swiss tariff deal. Overall tone is mildly supportive for CHF in the medium term but mixed intraday, with no major Swiss data releases scheduled for today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Pound is trading slightly firmer today, supported by a positive reaction to yesterday’s UK Budget and a softer US dollar, but moves are modest as markets digest the details and watch global risk sentiment. GBP/USD is hovering in the low‑1.31s after touching around 1.318 yesterday, leaving the Pound modestly higher on the day but still slightly weaker over the past month.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted by a majority of 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar is trading slightly stronger today, with USD/CAD holding near recent lows around the 1.40–1.41 area as markets maintain firm expectations for a December U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and digest earlier Bank of Canada easing. Overall sentiment toward CAD is being supported by prior signs of resilience in Canada’s labor market and the view that the Bank of Canada may now pause its rate‑cut cycle after bringing the policy rate down to 2.25%.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to limit overall resale volumes, resulting in only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices fell as markets reacted to growing expectations of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, which could potentially lift Western sanctions on Russian oil supplies. WTI crude futures dropped to $58.44 per barrel (down 0.4%), while Brent crude fell to $62.92 per barrel (down 0.3%). Trading volumes remained subdued due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.​

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 27 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 27 November 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Overnight in the U.S. session, weaker-than-expected U.S. data and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts supported equities, pressured the dollar, and pulled Treasury yields lower, while AI-linked tech stocks traded mixed. Risk assets generally benefited, with major U.S. stock indexes extending a multi-day rally into the Thanksgiving-shortened week.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders will focus on a relatively light data calendar, with Tokyo inflation figures, follow‑through from the latest Wall Street rally, and ongoing geopolitical and central‑bank headlines likely to drive sentiment. Liquidity in U.S. assets may be thinner because of the Thanksgiving holiday, which can exaggerate moves in Asian hours. Japan releases Tokyo CPI and Tokyo Core CPI for November, with core inflation expected to hold around the high‑2% area year on year, keeping attention on whether the Bank of Japan edges further away from ultra‑loose policy.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is trading slightly softer today around the 100 level on the Dollar Index as markets continue to price in further Federal Reserve rate cuts and react to improving risk sentiment globally. Major moves are modest, with high‑beta and Asian currencies generally firmer against the dollar, while safe‑haven demand for the greenback remains limited.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressure but still warranting vigilance amid tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading near recent two-week highs around the mid‑4,100s USD/oz, supported by expectations of U.S. rate cuts and ongoing safe‑haven demand. Gold’s latest push higher is tied to weaker‑than‑expected recent U.S. data, which has boosted market odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, pressuring real yields and the U.S. dollar. Price action is relatively range‑bound intraday, with traders watching whether spot XAUUSD can sustain levels above the 4,160–4,180 resistance area or slip back toward nearby supports.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar faces a pivotal session with the inaugural complete monthly CPI release taking center stage. A reading at or above 3.6% would reinforce expectations that the RBA will maintain its cautious, hold-steady approach, providing modest support for the currency. Conversely, a softer inflation print could revive rate cut speculation and push AUD/USD toward the lower end of its range near 0.6400. Traders should also monitor the RBNZ decision and US economic data for secondary catalysts throughout the session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand dollar (“Kiwi”) is trading firmer today after yesterday’s RBNZ rate cut, supported by improved risk sentiment and strong domestic business confidence data. Market focus is on how fast the easing cycle will end and on upcoming New Zealand retail sales figures due later in the day. NZD/USD is holding around the upper‑0.56 area after jumping over 1% yesterday when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the cash rate by 25 bps to 2.25% but signalled that further cuts are unlikely in the near term.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Tokyo Core CPI y/y (11:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from JPY today?

USD/JPY has slipped toward roughly 156.0, close to a one‑week low after sellers emerged on growing expectations that the Bank of Japan could move further away from ultra‑easy policy while the U.S. The Federal Reserve is seen pivoting to rate cuts in 2026.​ The current level keeps the yen in a zone where traders remain alert for possible Ministry of Finance intervention if depreciation accelerates again, given past warnings around the 157–160 range.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices today are trading near recent lows, with Brent just above 62 USD per barrel and WTI around 58–59 USD, as traders focus on oversupply risks and progress in Ukraine–Russia peace talks. Market sentiment is mildly negative overall, with any intraday bounces seen as fragile while supply remains ample and demand expectations soften.​

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 27 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.11%, Shanghai Composite up 0.49%, Hang Seng up 0.31% ASX up 0.06%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,179.70 (-0.53%), Silver at $52.620 (-0.56%), Brent Oil at $62.17 (-0.59%), WTI Oil at $58.32(-0.56%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 3.994, UK 10-year yield at 4.4240, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6741

News & Data:

• (USD) Unemployment Claims  216K  to 226K expected
• (USD) Core Durable Goods Orders m/m  0.6%  to 0.2% expected
• (USD) Durable Goods Orders m/m  0.5%  to 0.5% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets traded mostly higher on Thursday, supported by strong cues from Wall Street and rising optimism about U.S. interest rate cuts. Recent dovish remarks from top Federal Reserve officials, including John Williams, Christopher Waller and Mary Daly, have strengthened expectations that the Fed will move ahead with another rate cut. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders now see an 84.7% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting, sharply higher than the 30% likelihood a week earlier. Sentiment also improved on reports that Kevin Hassett, known for favoring lower interest rates and aligned with President Donald Trump’s economic views, may be a contender for the next Fed Chair role.

Australian shares edged higher, with the S&P/ASX 200 holding above 8,600 amid gains in technology, financials and gold miners. Tech names like Block, Zip and WiseTech advanced strongly, while gold miners also posted solid gains. Mining majors were mixed, and oil stocks mostly declined.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged above 50,200, driven by strength in technology and financial stocks. Market heavyweight SoftBank jumped, while chip-related stocks such as Advantest and Tokyo Electron posted strong gains.

Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea, China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan traded higher, while New Zealand, Malaysia and Indonesia slipped. Overnight, U.S. and European markets also closed firmly in positive territory, with Wall Street extending its multi-session rally.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD Current Account

The post Thursday 27th November 2025: Asian Markets Rise on Strong Rate-Cut Hopes and Wall Street Gains first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 99.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 99.11

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 100.07
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.1546

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1501

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1651

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 179.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 178.67
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 181.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.8799

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 0.8744
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8865
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3147

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3012
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3292
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 206.39

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 204.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 208.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8030

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7987
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8109
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 155.02

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 154.08

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 157.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                       

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4073

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3970

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4134

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6491

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6439

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6573

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 990.5688

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5637

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5762

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 46,864.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 46,442.68

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,005.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 23,488.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 22,917.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,956.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 6,773.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 6,673.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,870.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 89,178.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 81,214.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 97,784.84

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3,058.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,858.64

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,230.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 58.99

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 57.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 60.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,129.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,093.68
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,205.06
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets Global does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets Global assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets Global is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

The post Thursday 27th November 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 27/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 26 November 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

During the U.S. session overnight, a significant rally in U.S. stock indices driven by renewed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, supported by comments from Fed officials about rising labor market risks and a more accommodative policy stance. Major macroeconomic data releases included retail sales, producer price data for September, consumer confidence for November, and home price indices, with delayed releases due to the recent government shutdown.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

RBNZ delivering a more hawkish message than expected could spark volatility in Antipodean currencies. Australia’s new monthly CPI format introduces uncertainty around data quality and interpretation. UK budget execution risk remains high given the fiscal constraints. The absence of US GDP data removes a key anchor for market expectations. Continued Fed dovish repricing supports risk assets and Asian equities. China property stimulus speculation could lift sentiment for property developers and domestically-focused stocks.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Durable Goods Orders m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

CB Consumer Confidence (Tentative)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar faces a pivotal trading day with the Dollar Index (DXY) hovering near the 100 level amid heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Key drivers include dovish Fed signals, important economic data releases (jobless claims, durable goods orders), and significant global events, including the RBNZ rate decision, UK Autumn Budget, and ECB Financial Stability Review. Markets are pricing approximately 75-81% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, up sharply from around 42% just a week ago.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressure but still warranting vigilance amid tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Durable Goods Orders m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

CB Consumer Confidence (Tentative)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is expected to range trade between $4,000 and $4,160-$4,200 in the near term, with the December Fed rate cut probability remaining the primary directional driver. A break above $4,200 with momentum could see gold retest October highs, while weak data surprising to the upside or hawkish Fed rhetoric could push prices toward the $3,950-$4,000 support zone. The combination of Wednesday’s data releases, Thanksgiving liquidity reduction, and ongoing geopolitical developments creates a potentially volatile environment for precious metals traders heading into month-end.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

CPI y/y (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar faces a pivotal session with the inaugural complete monthly CPI release taking center stage. A reading at or above 3.6% would reinforce expectations that the RBA will maintain its cautious, hold-steady approach, providing modest support for the currency. Conversely, a softer inflation print could revive rate cut speculation and push AUD/USD toward the lower end of its range near 0.6400. Traders should also monitor the RBNZ decision and US economic data for secondary catalysts throughout the session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

Official Cash Rate (1:00 am GMT)

RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement (1:00 am GMT)

RBNZ Rate Statement (1:00 am GMT)

RBNZ Press Conference (2:00 am GMT)

RBNZ Gov Hawkesby Speaks (8:10 pm GMT)

Retail Sales q/q (9:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from NZD today?

Wednesday represents a pivotal moment for New Zealand’s monetary policy landscape. The widely expected 25 basis point rate cut to 2.25% will cap an unprecedented easing cycle that has delivered 325 basis points of cuts since August 2024. The decision comes as the New Zealand economy struggles with weak growth, elevated unemployment, and persistent inflation near the top of the target band.

The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure near seven-month lows around 0.5610, weighed down by aggressive RBNZ easing, monetary policy divergence with the US Federal Reserve, and broader global risk sentiment favoring the USD.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen enters Wednesday at a critical juncture, trading around 156 per dollar after recovering slightly from 10-month lows. The currency faces conflicting pressures: downward pressure from PM Takaichi’s ¥21.3 trillion stimulus package and fiscal concerns, but upward support from intensifying intervention warnings and rising expectations for a December BoJ rate hike. Traders are positioning cautiously ahead of Tokyo CPI data on Thursday and watching the 158-160 zone as the likely intervention trigger.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories ( 2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices have experienced significant downward pressure as markets head into Wednesday. WTI crude settled at approximately $57.72 per barrel while Brent crude dropped to around $62.15 per barrel on Tuesday, representing notable declines of 1.9% and 1.9% respectively. This marks oil’s lowest levels in approximately five weeks, with WTI down over 14% year-to-date and Brent falling roughly 12.5% from year-ago levels.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 26 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Push Higher Again on Rate Cut Hopes – Dow up 1.4%

US stock indices pushed higher again overnight, marking a third consecutive day of gains as Fed rate-cut expectations continued to firm. The Dow led the move with a strong 1.43% rise to finish at 47,112, the S&P 500 gained 0.91%, closing at 6,765, while the Nasdaq added 0.67% to end the session at 23,025. The improving risk sentiment saw Treasury yields ease back further, with the 2-year yield falling 2.7 basis points to 3.45% and the 10-year slipping 3.1 basis points to close at 3.994%, comfortably below the key 4% level. The US dollar also weakened against the majors, the DXY falling 0.34% to 99.80. In commodities, oil prices extended their decline, with Brent dropping 1.20% to settle at $62.61 and WTI sliding 1.26% to $58.10, as optimism around potential progress in resolving the Russia–Ukraine conflict continued to weigh on prices. Gold eased slightly, dipping 0.14% to trade at $4,130.01 as it remained confined within its recent range.

Dollar Plays Catch Up with Fed Rates and Yields

The dollar at last played a bit of catch-up with both Fed rate-cut expectations and bond yields in trading yesterday as it fell against the majors, dropping just over 0.3% on the day. While estimates for a Fed rate cut have jumped from below 40% to above 85% in the last week, and the 10-year yield has dropped from well above 4.10% to under 4%, the dollar had remained resolutely strong, but yesterday’s trading saw the first dip against the majors. Traders are expecting more volatility in the sessions ahead today, with more data from the US due and Thanksgiving holiday trading conditions looming. However, some feel that the huge move in expectations may be overdone, with little really changed on the fundamentals except some updates from Fed officials, and that the FX market may be right to keep the greenback at relatively high levels.

Hectic Day on the Macroeconomic Calendar

It is shaping up to be a particularly busy session across global markets today, with key economic data, central bank decisions, and fiscal updates scheduled throughout the day. There is a heavy focus on antipodean markets in the Asian session today, with Australian CPI data (exp. +3.6% y/y) due out shortly before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its latest rate call, where it is firmly expected to cut by 25 basis points. The London session will see the initial focus on the continent, with the ECB Stability Report due out early in the piece, before focus jumps across the channel to the UK for HM Treasury’s Autumn Forecast Statement. The New York session sees more data crammed in ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday, with the weekly unemployment claims numbers (exp. 226k), durable goods data (exp. +0.2% m/m, core +0.5% m/m), and Chicago update (exp. 43.9) all set for release. There were some rumours earlier in the week that we may see a delayed Core PCE Price Index release today, but that has failed to materialize.

The post General Market Analysis – 26/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.