The post Ex-Dividend 18/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 April 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

Following a surprise decline of 52.8k jobs in February, missing market estimates of a 30k gain and marking the first drop since March 2024, employment change in Australia gained 32.2k jobs, missing market forecasts of a 39.8k increase. Although the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1%, undershooting the estimate of 4.2%, the previous month’s reading was revised lower from 4.1% down to 4.0%. Despite an improvement in the labour market for March, demand for the Aussie dampened as this currency pair slid toward 0.6350 by midday in Asia.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The ECB looks all set to move ahead with its sixth successive rate cut at today’s meeting, with an expected reduction of 25 basis points (bps). With inflation moderating lower and the sluggish Euro Area economy projected to face further headwinds due to the ongoing global trade policy uncertainties, this central bank will hope that another reduction in the three key ECB interest rates will aid in reviving the economy. The Euro briefly surged past 1.1400 overnight before sliding toward 1.1350 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Unemployment claims have been relatively stable over the past six weeks, with the 12-week average standing at 223k. The latest forecast points to a slight increase in claims, rising from 223k to 225k. Should claims come in ‘soft’ once more, it could provide a much-needed near-term boost for the dollar later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Unemployment claims have been relatively stable over the past six weeks, with the 12-week average standing at 223k. The latest forecast points to a slight increase in claims, rising from 223k to 225k. Should claims come in ‘soft’ once more, it could provide a much-needed near-term boost for the dollar later today and potentially dampen the recent rally in gold.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Labour Force Report (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Following a surprise decline of 52.8k jobs in February, missing market estimates of a 30k gain and marking the first drop since March 2024, employment change in Australia gained 32.2k jobs, missing market forecasts of a 39.8k increase. Although the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1%, undershooting the estimate of 4.2%, the previous month’s reading was revised lower from 4.1% down to 4.0%. Despite an improvement in the labour market for March, demand for the Aussie dampened as this currency pair slid toward 0.6350 by midday in Asia.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

CPI (10:45 pm GMT 16th April)

What can we expect from NZD today?

After moderating lower from an annual rate of 0.6% in the previous period to 0.5% in the final quarter of 2024, consumer inflation in New Zealand accelerated in the first quarter of 2025, surging to 0.9%. Not only did the latest result exceed market forecasts of a 0.7% rise, but it also marked the highest reading since September 2023. The largest contributors to the quarterly rise were petrol prices, which climbed 4.6%, accounting for 17% of the overall 0.9% increase, and prices for tertiary and other post-school education, surging to 22.6%, contributing 11% to the total CPI rise. This jump follows the end of the first-year Fees Free program at the close of 2024, which was replaced by a final-year Fees Free scheme beginning on 1 January 2025. Students who previously claimed the first-year Fees Free benefit are not eligible for the final-year scheme, resulting in more students bearing the full cost of study in 2025.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Trade Balance (11:50 pm GMT 16th April)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Following a shift to a surplus of ¥590.5B in February, Japan’s trade balance registered a second consecutive month of surplus with a figure of ¥544.1B in March, exceeding market expectations of ¥485.3B. Exports rose 3.9% YoY to a three-month high of ¥ 9.85T, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion while imports rose to ¥9.31T. Demand for the yen eased overnight as USD/JPY reversed off 141.60 to climb above 142.50 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB Interest Rate Decision (12:15 pm GMT)

ECB Press Conference (12:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The ECB looks all set to move ahead with its sixth successive rate cut at today’s meeting, with an expected reduction of 25 basis points (bps). With inflation moderating lower and the sluggish Euro Area economy projected to face further headwinds due to the ongoing global trade policy uncertainties, this central bank will hope that another reduction in the three key ECB interest rates will aid in reviving the economy. The Euro briefly surged past 1.1400 overnight before sliding toward 1.1350 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc picked up on Wednesday as USD/CHF fell 1.4%. This currency pair hit an overnight low of 0.8115 before climbing above 0.8150 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Consumer inflation in the U.K. eased for the second consecutive month as seen in Wednesday’s report. Headline CPI fell from an annual rate of 2.8% in the previous month to 2.6%, below market forecasts of 2.7%, while the core reading edged lower from 3.5% to 3.4% in March. The largest downward contributions came from categories such as recreation and culture, data processing equipment, and transport. Despite inflation cooling once more, the pound continued to see strong bids as Cable 

came within a whisker of breaking above 1.3300 on Wednesday. However, this currency pair pulled back overnight before tumbling toward 1.3200 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

As widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its overnight rate at 2.75% on Wednesday to mark the first pause in eight meetings, where a total of 225 basis points (bps) had been cut since last June. The Governing Council noted that the unpredictability on the magnitude of tariffs placed significant downside risks on growth and lifted inflation expectations, warranting caution regarding the continuation of further monetary easing. The higher uncertainty stemmed from an unclear tariff path by the U.S., prompting the council to present two economic scenarios in its latest Monetary Policy Report. Firstly, should the U.S. limit the scope of its tariffs on Canada, economic growth is expected to weaken temporarily while inflation should hold near the target of 2%. And in the second scenario, should the U.S. proceed with an all-out trade war against Canada and China, the council anticipates a recession this year with inflation rising to 3%. Following the hold on its overnight rate, the Loonie strengthened 0.8% as USD/CAD fell sharply toward 1.3850.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope –  Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices rose on Wednesday on the prospect of tighter supply after the White House imposed further sanctions to curb Iranian oil trade while some OPEC producers pledged further output cuts to compensate for pumping above agreed quotas. Combined with the third consecutive week of higher build as reported by the EIA inventories, WTI oil gained 1.9% as it came within a whisker of $63 per barrel overnight. However, this benchmark briefly dipped under the $62 mark in early trading on Thursday before edging higher to float around $62.20.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish 

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support. Additionally, the price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud, which suggests a bearish trend

Pivot: 100.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 99.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 101.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. Additionally, the price is above the bullish Ichimoku cloud, which suggests a bullish trend

Pivot: 1.1200

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1.0949
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1526
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 160.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 158.36
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8529

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8448
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8662
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. Additionally, the price is above the bullish Ichimoku cloud, which suggests a bullish trend

Pivot: 1.3164

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1.3040
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3293
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 189.97
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 184.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 194.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot in the short term before reversing off and falling towards 1st support

Pivot: 0.8370
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8105
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8597
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 142.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 139.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 144.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

 USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3974

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum. 

1st support: 1.3839
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4063
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 38.2% and 50% retracements, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6340
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.6267

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6416
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5887
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.5828

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6024

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 39,318.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 36,918.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 41,268.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 21,505.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 20,301.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 22,475.20
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,242.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 4,878.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,508.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 83,233.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 79,497.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 88,428.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1,669.20
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1,438.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1,765.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising toward the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 62.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 58.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 65.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3242.55

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 3152.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3375.07
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 17th April 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 17 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

After experiencing a sharp decline of 1.2% in the prior month, consumer spending in the U.S. rebounded in February with a small gain of 0.2% MoM. The upward momentum gained further traction as sales jumped 1.4% MoM in March, marginally exceeding market expectations of 1.3%. Not only did consumer spending rebound for the second month on the trot, but it also notched the largest increase in retail sales since January 2023, as categories such as motor vehicle and parts sales, building material and garden equipment, and sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores led the gains. 

During his speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that U.S. economic growth appears to be slowing while claiming that the Fed can wait for greater clarity before making any moves. He also noted a possible tough situation developing for the Fed in which inflation is pushed higher by tariffs while growth and potentially employment weaken. The outlook has now become extremely uncertain, Powell said, with “fundamental changes” in policy that do not provide businesses and economists with any clear parallels to study. Powell also said the tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump were significantly larger than even the highest estimates crunched by the Fed ahead of time. The dollar index (DXY) fell 0.9% on Wednesday as it hit an overnight low of 99.17.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

After moderating from an annual rate of 0.6% in the previous period to 0.5% in the final quarter of 2024, consumer inflation in New Zealand accelerated in the first quarter of 2025, surging to 0.9%. Not only did the latest result exceed market forecasts of a 0.7% rise, but it also marked the highest reading since September 2023. The largest contributors to the quarterly rise were petrol prices, which climbed 4.6%, accounting for 17% of the overall 0.9% increase, and prices for tertiary and other post-school education, surging to 22.6%, contributing 11% to the total CPI rise. This jump follows the end of the first-year Fees Free program at the close of 2024, which was replaced by a final-year Fees Free scheme beginning on 1 January 2025. Students who previously claimed the first-year Fees Free benefit are not eligible for the final-year scheme, resulting in more students bearing the full cost of study in 2025.

Following a shift to a surplus of ¥590.5B in February, Japan’s trade balance registered a second consecutive month of surplus with a figure of ¥544.1B in March, exceeding market expectations of ¥485.3B. Exports rose 3.9% YoY to a three-month high of ¥ 9.85T, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion while imports rose to ¥9.31T. Demand for the yen eased overnight as USD/JPY reversed off 141.60 to climb above 142.50 as Asian markets came online.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Unemployment claims have been relatively stable over the past six weeks, with the 12-week average standing at 223k. The latest forecast points to a slight increase in claims, rising from 223k to 225k. Should claims come in ‘soft’ once more, it could provide a much-needed near-term boost for the dollar later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Unemployment claims have been relatively stable over the past six weeks, with the 12-week average standing at 223k. The latest forecast points to a slight increase in claims, rising from 223k to 225k. Should claims come in ‘soft’ once more, it could provide a much-needed near-term boost for the dollar later today and potentially dampen the recent rally in gold.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Labour Force Report (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Following a surprise decline of 52.8k jobs in February, missing market estimates of a 30k gain and marking the first drop since March 2024, employment change in Australia is expected to add 39.8k jobs to the economy while the unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher from 4.1% to 4.2% in March. Should the latest labour force report point to a robust set of figures, the Aussie will likely receive another strong lift.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

CPI (10:45 pm GMT 16th April)

What can we expect from NZD today?

After moderating lower from an annual rate of 0.6% in the previous period to 0.5% in the final quarter of 2024, consumer inflation in New Zealand accelerated in the first quarter of 2025, surging to 0.9%. Not only did the latest result exceed market forecasts of a 0.7% rise, but it also marked the highest reading since September 2023. The largest contributors to the quarterly rise were petrol prices, which climbed 4.6%, accounting for 17% of the overall 0.9% increase, and prices for tertiary and other post-school education, surging to 22.6%, contributing 11% to the total CPI rise. This jump follows the end of the first-year Fees Free program at the close of 2024, which was replaced by a final-year Fees Free scheme beginning on 1 January 2025. Students who previously claimed the first-year Fees Free benefit are not eligible for the final-year scheme, resulting in more students bearing the full cost of study in 2025.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Trade Balance (11:50 pm GMT 16th April)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Following a shift to a surplus of ¥590.5B in February, Japan’s trade balance registered a second consecutive month of surplus with a figure of ¥544.1B in March, exceeding market expectations of ¥485.3B. Exports rose 3.9% YoY to a three-month high of ¥ 9.85T, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion while imports rose to ¥9.31T. Demand for the yen eased overnight as USD/JPY reversed off 141.60 to climb above 142.50 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB Interest Rate Decision (12:15 pm GMT)

ECB Press Conference (12:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The ECB looks all set to move ahead with its sixth successive rate cut at today’s meeting, with an expected reduction of 25 basis points (bps). With inflation moderating lower and the sluggish Euro Area economy projected to face further headwinds due to the ongoing global trade policy uncertainties, this central bank will hope that another reduction in the three key ECB interest rates will aid in reviving the economy. The Euro briefly surged past 1.1400 overnight before sliding toward 1.1350 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc picked up on Wednesday as USD/CHF fell 1.4%. This currency pair hit an overnight low of 0.8115 before climbing above 0.8150 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Consumer inflation in the U.K. eased for the second consecutive month as seen in Wednesday’s report. Headline CPI fell from an annual rate of 2.8% in the previous month to 2.6%, below market forecasts of 2.7%, while the core reading edged lower from 3.5% to 3.4% in March. The largest downward contributions came from categories such as recreation and culture, data processing equipment, and transport. Despite inflation cooling once more, the pound continued to see strong bids as Cable 

came within a whisker of breaking above 1.3300 on Wednesday. However, this currency pair pulled back overnight before tumbling toward 1.3200 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

As widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its overnight rate at 2.75% on Wednesday to mark the first pause in eight meetings, where a total of 225 basis points (bps) had been cut since last June. The Governing Council noted that the unpredictability on the magnitude of tariffs placed significant downside risks on growth and lifted inflation expectations, warranting caution regarding the continuation of further monetary easing. The higher uncertainty stemmed from an unclear tariff path by the U.S., prompting the council to present two economic scenarios in its latest Monetary Policy Report. Firstly, should the U.S. limit the scope of its tariffs on Canada, economic growth is expected to weaken temporarily while inflation should hold near the target of 2%. And in the second scenario, should the U.S. proceed with an all-out trade war against Canada and China, the council anticipates a recession this year with inflation rising to 3%. Following the hold on its overnight rate, the Loonie strengthened 0.8% as USD/CAD fell sharply toward 1.3850.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope –  Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices rose on Wednesday on the prospect of tighter supply after the White House imposed further sanctions to curb Iranian oil trade while some OPEC producers pledged further output cuts to compensate for pumping above agreed quotas. Combined with the third consecutive week of higher build as reported by the EIA inventories, WTI oil gained 1.9% as it came within a whisker of $63 per barrel overnight. However, this benchmark briefly dipped under the $62 mark in early trading on Thursday before edging higher to float around $62.20.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 17 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Topple on Fed Comments – Nasdaq Down 3%

The major US stock indices all fell in trading overnight as Jerome Powell pushed back on any heightened expectations of rate cuts in the US. The Fed Chair said, “The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.” The Dow dropped 1.73%, the S&P 2.20%, and the Nasdaq dumped 3.07%. Treasury markets focused on the growth comment, with yields dropping down the curve—the 2-year off 7.6 basis points to 3.769%, and the 10-year down 5.7 basis points to 4.276%. Meanwhile, the dollar continued to fall, the DXY trading back towards the annual low, down 0.78% to 99.28. Oil prices spiked on news that the US has issued fresh sanctions on Chinese imports of Iranian oil—Brent up 2.03% to $65.98 and WTI up 2.09% to $62.61—whilst gold continued to break new records, up 3.59% to $3,341.63 an ounce.

Dollar Remains Out of Favour

The US dollar has taken a beating over the last couple of weeks, as President Trump’s higher-than-expected tariffs have led to a large restructuring of portfolios, with investors attempting to digest the implications on the global economy. Normally a safe haven trade in times of global distress, the market has interpreted the US tariffs as leading to much slower growth in the US, and the dollar has fallen swiftly out of favour after an initial rally following “Liberation Day.” In effect, the tariff update backfired for an administration which still favours a strong dollar, and the Liberation was really opening the door of the cage of dollar bears to then smash the market. The DXY now sits close to its annual low again as we approach a low-liquidity long weekend, and unless we see a strong change of direction in the coming days, the dollar could sink further into fresh ranges against most of the majors.

Another Busy Calendar Day to Close the Full Trading Week

Traders are preparing for another busy and volatile day ahead as they continue to battle geopolitical updates and a full macroeconomic event calendar before the long weekend. The Asian session has already seen a slightly higher-than-expected New Zealand CPI print, and now focus will move across the Tasman for Australian employment data later in the session. Investor focus will be firmly on Europe once London opens today, with the ECB due to update the market on its latest rate call. The market is expecting a 25-basis point cut, from 2.65% to 2.40%, but most traders are expecting the volatility to come from updates in the statement and press conference. The New York session sees the usual weekly unemployment data released (expected 225k) alongside the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index numbers, but again, most market participants are keeping a close eye on newswires for more tariff and trade updates to move markets.

The post General Market Analysis – 17/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Aussie dollar traders are preparing for another busy trading day as they analyze the latest employment data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, due out midway through the Asian trading session. The market is expecting a 40k increase in jobs in March—a sharp turnaround from last month’s -52.8k print—with the unemployment rate expected to creep up 0.1% to 4.2%. Any significant deviation from these expectations could trigger major moves in the currency, which is currently hovering near key technical levels.

The Aussie has consolidated near its annual high over the past few days after a turbulent trading month that saw it fall 7% before rallying the same amount, fueled by updates on U.S. tariffs. A stronger print today could see the Aussie break through current levels and move into a fresh topside range, with the longer-term target now sitting just under 68 cents. A weaker print would likely see the pair drop back into recent ranges, with short-term support now resting at the 200-day moving average of 0.6183.

Resistance 2: 0.6408 – 2025 High
Resistance 1: 0.6390 – Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 0.6183 – 200-Day Moving Average
Support 2: 0.5912 – Trendline Support and 2025 Low

The post Trade the Aussie Dollar on Australian Employment Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 17/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.55%, Shanghai Composite down 0.68%, Hang Seng down 2.64% ASX up 0.01%
• Commodities : Gold at $3307.35 (2.09%), Silver at $32.47 (0.58%), Brent Oil at $64.35 (-0.45%), WTI Oil at $60.96 (-0.34%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.320, UK 10-year yield at 4.6495, Germany 10-year yield at 2.5440

News & Data:

• (CAD) CPI m/m  0.3%  to 0.7%  expected
• (CAD) Median CPI y/y  2.9%  to 2.9%  expected
• (CAD) Trimmed CPI y/y  2.8%  to 3.0%  expected
• (CAD) Common CPI y/y  2.3%  to 2.5%  expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets mostly declined on Wednesday, tracking overnight losses on Wall Street as investors weighed corporate earnings and ongoing tariff concerns. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 2.11%, while China’s CSI 300 fell 0.84%, despite the country reporting stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth of 5.4%, surpassing Reuters’ forecast of 5.1%. However, U.S. tariff threats have prompted major investment banks to lower China’s annual growth projections.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged down 0.3%. South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.47%, and the Kosdaq slipped 0.44%. In contrast, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 inched up 0.19%.

Adding to trade tensions, Bloomberg reported Tuesday that China has ordered airlines to suspend Boeing jet deliveries amid the tariff standoff with the U.S. Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates suggested that this move could lead to renewed negotiations, as pressure mounts on the White House from affected industries like aerospace and technology.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures slipped as markets awaited key retail sales data and further earnings reports. Dow Jones futures were down 139 points (0.3%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.7% and 1.1%, respectively.

Overnight, Wall Street ended lower: the Dow shed 155.83 points (0.38%), the S&P 500 dipped 0.17%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.05% after two days of gains.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Core Retail Sales m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Retail Sales m/m
• 01:45 PM GMT – CAD Overnight Rate
• 02:30 PM GMT – CAD BOC Press Conference
• 05:30 PM GMT – USD Fed chair Powell Speaks

The post Wednesday 16th April 2025: Asia Stocks Fall as Tariff Worries Mount first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 16 April 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

China’s economy expanded by 5.4% YoY in Q1 2025, matching Q4’s pace and surpassing market forecasts of 5.1%, marking the highest annual growth in 18 months, driven by sustained stimulus from Beijing. Strong March performance bolstered GDP, with industrial output growing at its fastest rate since June 2021, retail sales achieving the largest increase in over a year, and the urban unemployment rate falling from a two-year peak. Fixed asset investment also slightly outperformed expectations. Exports surged at their strongest pace since October due to accelerated shipments before anticipated tariffs, while a smaller decline in imports narrowed the trade gap. The statistics bureau noted a “solid and stable” economic start, emphasizing innovation’s growing role. However, escalating U.S. trade tensions have clouded the outlook, heightening calls for further stimulus from Beijing. Despite a robust set of key macroeconomic results, prices for crude oil were pretty much unmoved as WTI oil hovered above $61 per barrel by midday in Asia.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

After accelerating in the prior month, consumer inflation in the U.K. eased slightly in February as both headline and core CPI rose at a slower pace. The forecasts for March point to a second consecutive month of abating price pressures, suggesting a continued moderation of consumer inflation, which could function as a near-term headwind for the pound. Cable surged past 1.3200 on Tuesday, fueled by the ongoing weakness in the greenback, and the upward momentum continued as Asian markets came online on Wednesday.

The final CPI report for March is expected to show inflationary pressures easing for the second consecutive month in the Euro Area. Services inflation slowed to a 33-month low while energy costs declined, based on the preliminary estimates. Despite consumer inflation moderating lower, demand for the Euro is likely to remain robust, keeping it above 1.1300.

After reducing its overnight rate by 25 basis points (bps) bringing it down to 2.75% in March, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is now widely expected to hold rates at current levels. This would mark the first pause in eight meetings, where a total of 225 bps had been cut since last June. This pause is likely influenced by the ongoing trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and its major trading partners such as Canada, nudging the BoC to embark on a ‘wait-and-see’ approach as developments unfold. Governor Tiff Macklem commences his press conference 45 minutes after the rate announcement where he could provide further insights on the decision-making process taken by the Governing Council that led them to today’s outcome.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chairman Powell’s Speech (5:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After experiencing a sharp decline of 1.2% in the prior month, consumer spending in the U.S. rebounded in February with a small gain of 0.2% MoM, well below forecasts of a 0.6% rise – seven of the report’s 13 categories saw declines. Retail sales are now anticipated to jump strongly in March, rising 1.4% MoM – a result that could provide some much-needed relief for the greenback.

Later on, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking about the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago. Following the recent developments on tariff announcements and suspensions between the U.S. and its key trading partners, markets will be looking to see if Powell can shed some light on how the ongoing trade uncertainties would impact the Fed’s decision-making process going into the FOMC meeting in early May.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chairman Powell’s Speech (5:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After experiencing a sharp decline of 1.2% in the prior month, consumer spending in the U.S. rebounded in February with a small gain of 0.2% MoM, well below forecasts of a 0.6% rise – seven of the report’s 13 categories saw declines. Retail sales are now anticipated to jump strongly in March, rising 1.4% MoM – a result that could provide some much-needed relief for the greenback.

Later on, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking about the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago. Following the recent developments on tariff announcements and suspensions between the U.S. and its key trading partners, markets will be looking to see if Powell can shed some light on how the ongoing trade uncertainties would impact the Fed’s decision-making process going into the FOMC meeting in early May.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie rallied on Tuesday as it reached a high of 0.6383, fuelled by pronounced weakness in the greenback. This currency pair pulled back quite sharply as it tumbled toward 0.6320 in early trading on Wednesday. However, the upward momentum for the Aussie remains intact and it looks set to climb above 0.6350 once again.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Significant weakness in the greenback propelled the Kiwi beyond the threshold of 0.5900 to hit a high of 0.5943 on Tuesday. However, this currency pair ran out of steam overnight as it dipped under this threshold. Strong tailwinds continue to keep the Kiwi elevated as it rose above 0.5900 once more as Asian markets came online on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that certain consumer electronics will be exempt from steep tariffs on Chinese imports, concerns regarding escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China have somewhat alleviated, providing some much-needed relief to financial markets. Demand for safe-haven assets such as the yen tapered off noticeably over the past couple of days as USD/JPY found its footing around 142.50. However, overhead pressures have not completely vanished for this currency pair.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

CPI (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The final CPI report for March is expected to show inflationary pressures easing for the second consecutive month in the Euro Area. Services inflation slowed to a 33-month low while energy costs declined, based on the preliminary estimates. Despite consumer inflation moderating lower, demand for the Euro is likely to remain robust, keeping it above 1.1300.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc tapered off noticeably over the past couple of days following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that certain consumer electronics will be exempt from steep tariffs on Chinese imports. This recent development alleviated some concerns regarding escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China and provided some much-needed relief to financial markets. USD/CHF has found a temporary floor above 0.8100 for now but overhead pressures remain in place.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

CPI (6:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

After accelerating in the prior month, consumer inflation in the U.K. eased slightly in February as both headline and core CPI rose at a slower pace. The forecasts for March point to a second consecutive month of abating price pressures, suggesting a continued moderation of consumer inflation, which could function as a near-term headwind for the pound. Cable surged past 1.3200 on Tuesday, fueled by the ongoing weakness in the greenback, and the upward momentum continued as Asian markets came online on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

BoC Interest Rate Decision (1:45 pm GMT)

BoC Press Conference (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

After reducing its overnight rate by 25 basis points (bps) bringing it down to 2.75% in March, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is now widely expected to hold rates at current levels. This would mark the first pause in eight meetings, where a total of 225 bps had been cut since last June. This pause is likely influenced by the ongoing trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and its major trading partners such as Canada, nudging the BoC to embark on a ‘wait-and-see’ approach as developments unfold. Governor Tiff Macklem commences his press conference 45 minutes after the rate announcement where he could provide further insights on the decision-making process taken by the Governing Council that led them to today’s outcome.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After declining by 1.1M in the prior week, the API stockpiles added 2.4M barrels of crude to storage, missing market forecasts of a decline of 1.7M barrels. The latest report highlighted the ongoing weakness in U.S. crude oil demand as inventories rose in eight out of the past 12 weeks to weigh on oil prices. WTI oil hovered around $61.50 per barrel for most parts of Tuesday. Although prices have somewhat stabilized this week, overhead pressures for this commodity remain in place.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 16 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish 

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support. Additionally, the price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud, which suggests a bearish trend

Pivot: 100.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 99.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 101.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. Additionally, the price is above the bullish Ichimoku cloud, which suggests a bullish trend

Pivot: 1.1200

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1.0949
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1526
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 160.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 158.36
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: q68.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8529

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8448
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8717
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could make a bullish breakout of the pivot and rise toward the 1st resistance. Additionally, the price is above the bullish Ichimoku cloud, which suggests a bullish trend

Pivot: 1.3203

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1.3040
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3342
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 189.97
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 184.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 194.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot in the short term before reversing off and falling towards 1st support

Pivot: 0.8370
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8105
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8597
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 142.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 139.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 144.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4063

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum. 

1st support: 1.3839
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4165
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6340
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.6267

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6416
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5887
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.5828

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6024

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 39,318.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 36,918.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 41,268.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 20,301.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 19,507.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 21,505.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,242.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 4,878.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,508.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 83,233.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 79,497.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 88,428.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1,765.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1,438.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1,940.48
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has reversed close to the pivot and could potentially fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 62.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 58.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 65.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3167.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 3057.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3295.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 16th April 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

After registering a large decline of -20 in the previous month, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index contracted for the second successive month with a reading of -8.1 in April, better than the forecast of -14.5. Manufacturing activity declined modestly as categories such as new orders and shipments edged lower while input and selling prices both surged at the fastest pace in over two years. Due to the current backdrop of trade policy uncertainties, firms turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to -7.4, its second-lowest reading on record. The dollar index (DXY) failed to rise above 100.30 during this session, highlighting the lacklustre demand for the greenback.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

China releases its key macroeconomic data on its latest GDP figures as well as industrial production and retail sales activity. Given the growing uncertainty surrounding global trade policies, we could see China’s economic output slow noticeably while consumer spending falters. A huge miss in these figures would no doubt heap intense downward pressures on crude oil prices, which have already shed well over 20% at their lowest point over the last couple of weeks.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chairman Powell’s Speech (5:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After experiencing a sharp decline of 1.2% in the prior month, consumer spending in the U.S. rebounded in February with a small gain of 0.2% MoM, well below forecasts of a 0.6% rise – seven of the report’s 13 categories saw declines. Retail sales are now anticipated to jump strongly in March, rising 1.4% MoM – a result that could provide some much-needed relief for the greenback.

Later on, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking about the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago. Following the recent developments on tariff announcements and suspensions between the U.S. and its key trading partners, markets will be looking to see if Powell can shed some light on how the ongoing trade uncertainties would impact the Fed’s decision-making process going into the FOMC meeting in early May.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chairman Powell’s Speech (5:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After experiencing a sharp decline of 1.2% in the prior month, consumer spending in the U.S. rebounded in February with a small gain of 0.2% MoM, well below forecasts of a 0.6% rise – seven of the report’s 13 categories saw declines. Retail sales are now anticipated to jump strongly in March, rising 1.4% MoM – a result that could provide some much-needed relief for the greenback.

Later on, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking about the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago. Following the recent developments on tariff announcements and suspensions between the U.S. and its key trading partners, markets will be looking to see if Powell can shed some light on how the ongoing trade uncertainties would impact the Fed’s decision-making process going into the FOMC meeting in early May.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie rallied on Tuesday as it reached a high of 0.6383, fuelled by pronounced weakness in the greenback. This currency pair pulled back quite sharply as it tumbled toward 0.6320 in early trading on Wednesday. However, the upward momentum for the Aussie remains intact and it looks set to climb above 0.6350 once again.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Significant weakness in the greenback propelled the Kiwi beyond the threshold of 0.5900 to hit a high of 0.5943 on Tuesday. However, this currency pair ran out of steam overnight as it dipped under this threshold. Strong tailwinds continue to keep the Kiwi elevated as it rose above 0.5900 once more as Asian markets came online on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that certain consumer electronics will be exempt from steep tariffs on Chinese imports, concerns regarding escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China have somewhat alleviated, providing some much-needed relief to financial markets. Demand for safe-haven assets such as the yen tapered off noticeably over the past couple of days as USD/JPY found its footing around 142.50. However, overhead pressures have not completely vanished for this currency pair.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

CPI (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The final CPI report for March is expected to show inflationary pressures easing for the second consecutive month in the Euro Area. Services inflation slowed to a 33-month low while energy costs declined, based on the preliminary estimates. Despite consumer inflation moderating lower, demand for the Euro is likely to remain robust, keeping it above 1.1300.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc tapered off noticeably over the past couple of days following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that certain consumer electronics will be exempt from steep tariffs on Chinese imports. This recent development alleviated some concerns regarding escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China and provided some much-needed relief to financial markets. USD/CHF has found a temporary floor above 0.8100 for now but overhead pressures remain in place.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

CPI (6:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

After accelerating in the prior month, consumer inflation in the U.K. eased slightly in February as both headline and core CPI rose at a slower pace. The forecasts for March point to a second consecutive month of abating price pressures, suggesting a continued moderation of consumer inflation, which could function as a near-term headwind for the pound. Cable surged past 1.3200 on Tuesday, fueled by the ongoing weakness in the greenback, and the upward momentum continued as Asian markets came online on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

BoC Interest Rate Decision (1:45 pm GMT)

BoC Press Conference (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

After reducing its overnight rate by 25 basis points (bps) bringing it down to 2.75% in March, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is now widely expected to hold rates at current levels. This would mark the first pause in eight meetings, where a total of 225 bps had been cut since last June. This pause is likely influenced by the ongoing trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and its major trading partners such as Canada, nudging the BoC to embark on a ‘wait-and-see’ approach as developments unfold. Governor Tiff Macklem commences his press conference 45 minutes after the rate announcement where he could provide further insights on the decision-making process taken by the Governing Council that led them to today’s outcome.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After declining by 1.1M in the prior week, the API stockpiles added 2.4M barrels of crude to storage, missing market forecasts of a decline of 1.7M barrels. The latest report highlighted the ongoing weakness in U.S. crude oil demand as inventories rose in eight out of the past 12 weeks to weigh on oil prices. WTI oil hovered around $61.50 per barrel for most parts of Tuesday. Although prices have somewhat stabilized this week, overhead pressures for this commodity remain in place.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Markets Pull Back on Tariff Confusion – Dow Down 0.4%

Financial markets took a bit of a breath in trading yesterday after a couple of hard weeks of volatility to assess exactly where we stand with tariffs and what the possible impact is. The major U.S. stock indices all drifted lower — the Dow dropped 0.38%, the S&P 0.17%, and the Nasdaq finished marginally off, losing just 0.05%. Treasury yields also experienced a relatively quiet day, the 2-year closing flat at 3.845%, while the 10-year lost 4.1 basis points to move down to 4.333%. The dollar edged higher against most of the majors, with the DXY up 0.36% to 100.17. Oil contracts also traded in their tightest ranges for a while, Brent gaining just 0.01% to $64.89 and WTI dropping 0.32% to $61.33 a barrel, whilst gold pushed back towards all-time highs again, gaining 0.6% on the day to close at $3,229.24.

Gold Pushing for More Records

Gold prices moved back higher again overnight and look like they could challenge the $3,245.28 high that was set a few days ago in the coming sessions. Global uncertainty over the last few months has enabled the world’s favourite safe-haven product to climb over 24% this year, and that has increased since “Liberation Day.” However, some in the market are preparing for a sharp turnaround if conditions change. One question for gold traders is just how much downside has been priced into this gold move — and then they are looking at how far it can fall back if we see global growth concerns retract. Overnight, President Trump called on China to come to the negotiation table, and if that were to happen — and lower tariffs, or even the removal of tariffs, were to occur — then we could see gold prices drop, and drop hard. As always in these markets, traders will continue to monitor newswires for updates and will have to react quickly to fresh developments.

Busy Calendar Day Ahead for Traders

Market volatility dropped considerably over the last few sessions, and investors will now get the chance to have a look at the underlying fundamentals with a full calendar day ahead. The Asian session will have a strong focus on Chinese markets, with the usual big monthly data drop due midway through the session: GDP (exp +5.2%), Industrial Production (exp +5.9%), and Retail Sales (exp +4.2%) will be the main focus, and anything significantly off expectations should see further moves in Chinese markets. The U.K. is again in focus at the European open, with the key CPI data (exp +2.7%) due out, and traders are expecting more moves for the pound on the release. However, the New York session looks set to be the busiest, with U.S. Retail Sales (exp +1.3%, Core +0.4%) due for release early in the day, followed by the key interest rate update from the Bank of Canada, where rates are expected to be held at 2.75%. To add more fuel to the fire, we are also set to hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later in the session when he speaks in Chicago.

The post General Market Analysis – 16/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.