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IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 9 April 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

After reducing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 3.75% on 19 February, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) moved ahead with its fifth successive rate cut this morning. This central bank lowered its OCR by 25 bps to 3.50%, in line with market forecasts, bringing the total reduction to 200 bps. The RBNZ noted that the annual inflation remained close to the mid-point of the target range of 1 to 3%, and core inflation was consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term. Meanwhile, higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth, but household spending and residential investment have remained weak. However, the ongoing developments in global trade barriers are likely to create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation in New Zealand. Despite a dovish monetary policy action by the RBNZ, the Kiwi rose strongly toward 0.5550 by midday in Asia.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda will be speaking at the Trust Companies Conference in Tokyo, where he could share his opinions on the current tariff implementation by the U.S. on Japan’s exports and how Japan plans to respond and/or negotiate with the White House on this matter. Demand for safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen remained robust overnight, with USD/JPY tumbling under 146. Overhead pressures continue to build as this currency pair dipped under 145 during the Asian trading hours.

The Bank of England (BoE) will release a detailed record of the Financial Policy Committee’s (FPC) meeting that took place on the 19th of March, providing in-depth insights into the financial conditions, powers for direction on capital requirements, and decisions towards financial stability. Meanwhile, demand for the pound returned on Tuesday as Cable found its footing above 1.2700 before reaching an overnight high of 1.2815. The upward momentum remained in place as Asian markets came online on Wednesday, with Cable rising strongly toward 1.2550.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

FOMC Meeting Minutes (6:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the FOMC meeting that took place on the 19th of March, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. However, market moves will once again be influenced strongly by tariff headlines and any new developments on trade policies and retaliatory actions between the U.S. and its major trading partners such as the European Union and China. Escalating trade tensions will cause the dollar to continue facing intense overhead pressures.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

FOMC Meeting Minutes (6:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the FOMC meeting that took place on the 19th of March, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. However, market moves will once again be influenced strongly by tariff headlines and any new developments on trade policies and retaliatory actions between the U.S. and its major trading partners such as the European Union and China. Spot prices for gold stabilized around $3,000/oz overnight and demand appeared to pick up at the beginning of Wednesday’s Asia session.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

After falling as low as 0.5914 in early trading on Wednesday, the Aussie stabilized around 0.5950 as demand for the greenback faltered once more. This currency pair will likely rebound above the threshold of 0.6000 today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (2:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from NZD today?

After reducing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 3.75% on 19 February, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) moved ahead with its fifth successive rate cut this morning. This central bank lowered its OCR by 25 bps to 3.50%, in line with market forecasts, bringing the total reduction to 200 bps. The RBNZ noted that the annual inflation remained close to the mid-point of the target range of 1 to 3%, and core inflation was consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term. Meanwhile, higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth, but household spending and residential investment have remained weak. However, the ongoing developments in global trade barriers are likely to create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation in New Zealand. Despite a dovish monetary policy action by the RBNZ, the Kiwi rose strongly toward 0.5550 by midday in Asia.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

BoJ Gov Ueda Speaks (6:15 am GMT)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda will be speaking at the Trust Companies Conference in Tokyo, where he could share his opinions on the current tariff implementation by the U.S. on Japan’s exports and how Japan plans to respond and/or negotiate with the White House on this matter. Demand for safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen remained robust overnight, with USD/JPY tumbling under 146. Overhead pressures continue to build as this currency pair dipped under 145.50 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

Demand for the Euro remained robust for the third consecutive week as it gained nearly 1.5% by early Wednesday. This currency pair broke above 1.1000 and it should continue its ascend as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc remained robust this week as USD/CHF tumbled over 2% during the Asia session on Wednesday. This currency pair dived under 0.8450 and it looks set to break through another big level at 0.8200 at some point today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

FPC Meeting Minutes (9:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Bank of England (BoE) will release a detailed record of the Financial Policy Committee’s (FPC) meeting that took place on the 19th of March, providing in-depth insights into the financial conditions, powers for direction on capital requirements, and decisions towards financial stability. Meanwhile, demand for the pound returned on Tuesday as Cable found its footing above 1.2700 before reaching an overnight high of 1.2815. The upward momentum remained in place as Asian markets came online on Wednesday, with Cable rising strongly toward 1.2550.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

On Tuesday, the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index eased to 51.3 in March, falling from a seven-month high of 55.3 in the previous month, while missing market expectations of 53.2. Despite the ongoing trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and Canada, industrial activity has remained in expansionary territory for now. The Loonie weakened slightly this week to prop USD/CAD above 1.4250 – this currency pair was hovering around 1.4240 at the beginning of Wednesday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Following the White House’s decision to move ahead with a sweeping, mind-blowing 104% tariff on China’s imports that will start at 12:01 am Eastern Time on the 9th of April, crude oil prices nose dived overnight. WTI oil had already plunged well over 7.5% this week and it broke under the $58 mark in early trading on Wednesday. The ongoing global trade war has escalated further to exacerbate the already high risk-off sentiment in financial markets. Moving over to U.S. crude inventories, the EIA inventories increased by 6.2M barrels in last week’s report – the seventh time of higher builds over the past couple of months. If inventories were to increase strongly once more, it would create additional headwinds for this commodity.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 9 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 4.34%, Shanghai Composite up 0.2%, Hang Seng down 1.93% ASX down 1.84%
• Commodities : Gold at $3034.35 (1.4%), Silver at $29.087 (-0.48%), Brent Oil at $60.65 (-3.95%), WTI Oil at $57.26 (-3.94%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.406, UK 10-year yield at 4.6060, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6245

News & Data:

• (CAD) Ivey PMI 51.3  to 53.2  expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets tumbled on Wednesday as new U.S. tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump took effect, targeting specific countries and escalating trade tensions.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 1.06%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 dropped 3.14% and the broader Topix shed 3.26%. South Korea’s Kospi slid 0.95%, confirming a bear market with a 20% drop from its July high. The small-cap Kosdaq slipped 0.44%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index plunged 3.86%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index sank 5.42%. China’s CSI 300 eased 0.26%.

The fresh tariffs added to the 10% baseline duty already introduced on Saturday, pushing cumulative duties on Chinese goods to 104%. The move has intensified concerns of a prolonged trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies.

India’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6%, as anticipated by analysts surveyed by Reuters. However, the Nifty 50 index still declined 0.39% in response to global market weakness.

In the U.S., major indexes also closed lower overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320.01 points, or 0.84%, to 37,645.59, extending its four-day loss to over 4,500 points amid trade-related worries. Apple led the drop, with tariffs expected to significantly raise costs.

The S&P 500 slid 1.57% to 4,982.77, closing below the 5,000 mark for the first time since April 2024. It came close to entering bear market territory, down nearly 19% from its February peak, and has fallen over 12% in just four days.

Upcoming Events: 

• 06:00 PM GMT – USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

The post Wednesday 9th April 2025 : Asia-Pacific Markets Tumble as U.S. Tariffs Trigger Global Sell-Off first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 9 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Index fell 3.3 points to 97.4 in March, its lowest level since October 2024 and well below the market expectation of 101.3. This latest report also marked the largest decline since June 2022. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index fell to 96, down eight points from February, as small business owners tempered their sales growth expectations until they gained a clearer understanding of how new policy priorities affect their operations. Additionally, the percentage of owners anticipating better business conditions dropped 16 points to a net 21%, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and the largest drop since December 2020.

On the trade policy front, trade tensions escalated drastically as the White House moved ahead with a sweeping, mind-blowing 104% tariff on China’s imports that will start at 12:01 am Eastern Time on the 9th of April. This latest salvo exacerbated the already high risk-off sentiment in financial markets, sparking a sharp sell-off in the greenback as the dollar index (DXY) fell under 103 overnight and slid quickly under 105.50 as Asian markets came online on Wednesday.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

After reducing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 3.75% on 19 February, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely anticipated to make its fifth successive rate cut today, albeit with only a 25-bps cut. With inflation having fallen substantially since its peak in 2022 and the economy remaining sluggish, all the conditions are in place for this central bank to ease once again. Given the current backdrop of global trade uncertainties which could significantly dent global economic growth, it would come as no surprise should the RBNZ move ahead with another 50-bps reduction.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

FOMC Meeting Minutes (6:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the FOMC meeting that took place on the 19th of March, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. However, market moves will once again be influenced strongly by tariff headlines and any new developments on trade policies and retaliatory actions between the U.S. and its major trading partners such as the European Union and China. Escalating trade tensions will cause the dollar to continue facing intense overhead pressures.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

FOMC Meeting Minutes (6:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the FOMC meeting that took place on the 19th of March, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. However, market moves will once again be influenced strongly by tariff headlines and any new developments on trade policies and retaliatory actions between the U.S. and its major trading partners such as the European Union and China. Spot prices for gold stabilized around $3,000/oz overnight and demand appeared to pick up at the beginning of Wednesday’s Asia session.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

After falling as low as 0.5914 in early trading on Wednesday, the Aussie stabilized around 0.5950 as demand for the greenback faltered once more. This currency pair will likely rebound above the threshold of 0.6000 today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (2:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from NZD today?

After reducing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 3.75% on 19 February, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely anticipated to make its fifth successive rate cut today, albeit with only a 25-bps cut. With inflation having fallen substantially since its peak in 2022 and the economy remaining sluggish, all the conditions are in place for this central bank to ease once again. Given the current backdrop of global trade uncertainties which could significantly dent global economic growth, it would come as no surprise should the RBNZ move ahead with another 50-bps reduction.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

BoJ Gov Ueda Speaks (6:15 am GMT)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda will be speaking at the Trust Companies Conference in Tokyo, where he could share his opinions on the current tariff implementation by the U.S. on Japan’s exports and how Japan plans to respond and/or negotiate with the White House on this matter. Demand for safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen remained robust overnight, with USD/JPY tumbling under 146. Overhead pressures continue to build as this currency pair dipped under 145.50 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

Demand for the Euro remained robust for the third consecutive week as it gained nearly 1.5% by early Wednesday. This currency pair broke above 1.1000 and it should continue its ascend as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc remained robust this week as USD/CHF tumbled over 2% during the Asia session on Wednesday. This currency pair dived under 0.8450 and it looks set to break through another big level at 0.8200 at some point today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

FPC Meeting Minutes (9:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Bank of England (BoE) will release a detailed record of the Financial Policy Committee’s (FPC) meeting that took place on the 19th of March, providing in-depth insights into the financial conditions, powers for direction on capital requirements, and decisions towards financial stability. Meanwhile, demand for the pound returned on Tuesday as Cable found its footing above 1.2700 before reaching an overnight high of 1.2815. The upward momentum remained in place as Asian markets came online on Wednesday, with Cable rising strongly toward 1.2550.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

On Tuesday, the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index eased to 51.3 in March, falling from a seven-month high of 55.3 in the previous month, while missing market expectations of 53.2. Despite the ongoing trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and Canada, industrial activity has remained in expansionary territory for now. The Loonie weakened slightly this week to prop USD/CAD above 1.4250 – this currency pair was hovering around 1.4240 at the beginning of Wednesday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Following the White House’s decision to move ahead with a sweeping, mind-blowing 104% tariff on China’s imports that will start at 12:01 am Eastern Time on the 9th of April, crude oil prices nose dived overnight. WTI oil had already plunged well over 7.5% this week and it broke under the $58 mark in early trading on Wednesday. The ongoing global trade war has escalated further to exacerbate the already high risk-off sentiment in financial markets. Moving over to U.S. crude inventories, the EIA inventories increased by 6.2M barrels in last week’s report – the seventh time of higher builds over the past couple of months. If inventories were to increase strongly once more, it would create additional headwinds for this commodity.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 9 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Smashed Again as Trade War Escalates – Nasdaq Down 2%

US stock markets took another beating yesterday as the global trade war continued to escalate in light of recent tariff moves. The three major indices had initially rallied in early trading, but a threat to increase Chinese tariffs to 104% by President Trump, starting shortly after midnight, put an end to that. The Dow closed down 0.84%, the S&P down 1.57%, with the Nasdaq again taking the brunt of the move, closing 2.15% in the red. US Treasury yields had a mixed day, the 2-year down 3.8 basis points at 3.725%, while the longer dates rallied, the benchmark 10-year up 10.9 basis points at 4.293% at the close. FX remained volatile, the DXY down 0.44% on the day but was mixed against the majors. Oil prices were hit again, Brent down 2.66% at $61.55 a barrel and WTI down 4.12% to $58.20 a barrel. Gold closed close to flat, down just 0.02% on the day at $2,981.49, but had seen a $60 range over the course of the day.

Oil Prices Continue to Decline

Oil prices have been absolutely smashed over the last week’s trading, as a global trade war has led to huge demand concerns for ‘black gold’ at the same time as OPEC+ announced production increases four times larger than expected. The combination of the two has created the perfect storm for oil bears and, if you add into the mix the potential for changes to Russian and Iranian sanctions, this could be just the start of the move. Both Brent and WTI are now sitting at levels not seen since 2021, and further moves lower open the way for a move to much lower levels. There is no doubt that we will see further volatility in the coming days and weeks from geopolitical updates, but unless we see a huge change in direction with regards to both the supply and demand side, then expect oil to move further south.

Event Calendar Picks Up Today

The macroeconomic calendar kicks into action for the first time this week today with a strong focus on central banks, and traders are expecting even more volatility as they cannot fail to mention recent developments with regard to global trade. The initial focus in the Asian session will be on New Zealand today, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. The focus will then move north to Japan, with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda scheduled to speak in the afternoon session. Once again, there is nothing of note on the cards in the European session, and the focus is expected to be on trade updates again, which should continue into the New York open. However, later in the US day, trader attention will move back to central banks when the Fed’s recent meeting minutes are released.

The post General Market Analysis – 09/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish 

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 103.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 101.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 104.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.0912
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1.0732
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1089
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 158.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 155.55
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.05
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8462

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8332
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8626
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns close to the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.2881
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance,  indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.2695
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3163
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 189.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 186.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 192.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish Bounce off this level and rise toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.8399
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8519
Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8620
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level and rise toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 144.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 142.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 148.19
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4275

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.4165
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 50% retracement and the 78.6% projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4390
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6069
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 0.5944

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6115
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5617
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 0.5516

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5668

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 50% retracement and the 127.2% extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 39,318.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 35,688.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 40,673.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 20,358.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 19,421.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 21,148.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 50% retracement and the 161.8% extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support

Pivot: 5,242.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 4,889.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,385.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 76,555.03

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 73,304.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 61.8% projection and the 127.2% extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 80,324.94
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1,488.91

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1,319.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1,587.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 59.68

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 54.07
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 63.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 2954.81
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 2883.13
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3049.66
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 9th April 2025 : Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Kiwi dollar traders are preparing for heightened volatility in the trading day ahead, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand set to announce its latest interest rate decision. The escalating global trade war has caused the Kiwi to drop sharply over the past few sessions, falling nearly 6% in just three and a half days since its post-tariff rally to 0.5852. It is now hovering around key technical support, ahead of an anticipated rate cut from the central bank.

The market expects the RBNZ to lower interest rates from 3.75% to 3.50%. Given recent global developments and domestic data, a dovish statement is anticipated to accompany the move. Some outlying market participants suggest the RBNZ—known for acting decisively—could cut by 50 basis points today in response to recent geopolitical turmoil. Such a move would shake up the market, but for most traders, the focus will be on the degree of dovishness in the statement for trading opportunities.

The Kiwi is currently sitting very close to technical support—both from the long-term daily trendline on the majors and the 2022 low. A surprise 50 basis point cut or an even more dovish statement could break these levels and extend the downside move. On the other hand, anything less dovish than expected might prompt a relief rally, though this would likely offer traders more attractive levels to sell into given current market sentiment.

Resistance Levels:

• Resistance 1: 0.5852 – 2025 High
• Resistance 2: 0.5890 – 200-Day Average

Support Levels:

• Support 1: 0.5504 – Trendline Support and 2025 Low
• Support 2: 0.5468 – 2022 Low

The post Trade the Kiwi Dollar on the RBNZ Rate Decision first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 9/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 5.64%, Shanghai Composite up 0.72%, Hang Seng up 0.53% ASX up 2.04%
• Commodities : Gold at $3017.35 (1.4%), Silver at $30.07 (1.48%), Brent Oil at $64.65 (1.95%), WTI Oil at $61.26 (1.94%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.179, UK 10-year yield at 4.6205, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6215

News & Data:

• (USD) Consumer Credit m/m -0.8B  to 14.9B  expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets rebounded on Tuesday after a sharp sell-off in the previous session, which was driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. Trump warned of a potential 50% increase in tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing did not reduce its own duties on American imports, sparking volatility across global markets.

In response, several major indices in the region posted solid gains. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 5.31%, while the broader Topix rose 5.65%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 1.92%. South Korea’s Kospi edged up 0.34%, and the small-cap Kosdaq increased 0.96%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.58%, and its Tech Index jumped 3.57%, rebounding after Monday’s sharp decline of over 13%—its steepest single-day drop since 1997, according to FactSet.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 gained 0.96%, but markets in Southeast Asia remained under pressure. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite dropped 7.63% following a trading halt triggered by a circuit breaker. Vietnam’s benchmark index fell 5.6% after returning from a holiday, and Thailand’s SET index declined over 5% to reach its lowest level since March 2020, based on data from LSEG.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures traded higher following a three-day losing streak sparked by Trump’s tariff announcement. S&P 500 futures rose around 1%, Nasdaq-100 futures gained 1.1%, and Dow Jones futures climbed 476 points, or 1.2%. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.91% to 37,965.60, while the S&P 500 declined 0.23% to 5,062.25. The Nasdaq Composite was the only major index to notch a gain, rising 0.10% to close at 15,603.26.

Upcoming Events: 

• 02:00 PM GMT – CAD Ivey PMI

The post Tuesday 8th April 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Rebound After Trump’s Tariff Threats first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 8 April 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index slumped 6% in April, dropping from 95.9 in the prior month to 90.1 to register the lowest reading in six months as concerns surrounding a global trade war escalated to dampen consumer optimism. Meanwhile, the NAB business confidence index declined for the second consecutive month, tumbling from -2 in the previous month to -3 in March, marking the lowest figure since November 2024. Industry sentiment was mixed, with confidence slipping in finance, property & business services, and manufacturing, while mining, retail, recreation, and transport saw gains. Despite the weaker-than-anticipated surveys, the Aussie rose strongly to climb above 0.6050 by midday in Asia.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The Ivey PMI soared to 55.3 in February 2025 from 2020-lows of 47.1 in January, beating market expectations of 50.6. It was the highest reading in seven months, as employment rebounded while inventories declined. However, PMI activity could now contract sharply in March as concerns surrounding a global trade war mount aggressively. After faltering over the last two trading days, demand for the Loonie looks set to return on Tuesday.

Moving over to U.S. crude oil inventories, the API stockpiles have increased noticeably over the past four weeks – typically a sign of lower crude demand in the United States. Should the API report highlight another week of significantly higher stockpiles, overhead pressures are likely to intensify once more. WTI oil was floating around $61.50 before the start of this session.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

NFIB Small Business Index (10:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Index fell from 102.8 in the prior month to 100.7 in February as uncertainty was high and rose on Main Street with many small business owners who were expecting better business conditions in the next six months dropped – inflation and labour quality continue to remain a major concern for business owners. Following last week’s tariff announcements by the White House, this index will likely take a big hit as optimism is all but certain to tank.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

NFIB Small Business Index (10:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Index fell from 102.8 in the prior month to 100.7 in February as uncertainty was high and rose on Main Street with many small business owners who were expecting better business conditions in the next six months dropped – inflation and labour quality continue to remain a major concern for business owners. Following last week’s tariff announcements by the White House, this index will likely take a big hit as optimism is all but certain to tank. Spot prices for gold hovered around $3,000/oz as Asian markets came online.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Westpac Consumer Sentiment (12:30 am GMT)

NAB Business Confidence (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index slumped 6% in April, dropping from 95.9 in the prior month to 90.1 to register the lowest reading in six months as concerns surrounding a global trade war escalated to dampen consumer optimism. Meanwhile, the NAB business confidence index declined for the second consecutive month, tumbling from -2 in the previous month to -3 in March, marking the lowest figure since November 2024. Industry sentiment was mixed, with confidence slipping in finance, property & business services, and manufacturing, while mining, retail, recreation, and transport saw gains. Despite the weaker-than-anticipated surveys, the Aussie rose strongly to climb above 0.6050 by midday in Asia.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

After tumbling over 4% during the last two trading days, the Kiwi stabilized around 0.5520 in early trading on Tuesday. With demand for the dollar remaining fragile, this currency pair should edge higher as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Despite USD/JPY rebounding strongly on Monday, demand for safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen remained robust – this currency pair climbed above 148 overnight before retreating. Downward pressures mounted on USD/JPY as it slid under 147.50 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

Despite Germany’s aggressive fiscal plan to revive and kickstart their economy, industrial production declined more than expected, falling 1.3% MoM in February, exceeding the forecast of a 0.9%-decline on Monday. Meanwhile, the trade surplus widened less than anticipated, increasing from €16.2B to €17.7B, missing estimates of a €18.4B rise. The Euro reversed sharply from Monday’s high of 1.1050 before briefly sliding under 1.0900. However, this currency pair should resume its upward momentum on Tuesday as financial markets continue to ditch the greenback.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Despite USD/CHF rebounding strongly on Monday, demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc remained robust. This currency pair hit an overnight high of 0.8673 before settling around 0.8600 – downward pressures were mounting as Asian markets came online with USD/CHF looking set to resume its slide on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

After tumbling sharply over the last couple of trading days, Cable found its footing in early trading on Tuesday. This currency pair established a floor around 1.2720 and it could resume its ascent as demand for the greenback remains frail.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Ivey PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Ivey PMI soared to 55.3 in February 2025 from 2020-lows of 47.1 in January, beating market expectations of 50.6. It was the highest reading in seven months, as employment rebounded while inventories declined. However, PMI activity could now contract sharply in March as concerns surrounding a global trade war mount aggressively. After faltering over the last two trading days, demand for the Loonie looks set to return on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stockpiles (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After falling nearly 5% at its lowest point on Monday, crude oil prices stabilized with WTI oil reversing off its lows at $58.95 to settle around $60.70 per barrel. The commodity markets continue to be roiled with tariff-related news headlines and announcements, keeping volatility elevated. Meanwhile, the API stockpiles have increased noticeably over the past four weeks, typically a sign of lower crude demand in the United States. Should the API report highlight another week of significantly higher stockpiles, overhead pressures are likely to intensify once more.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 8 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.