Markets Positive Ahead of Government Resumption – Dow up 0.7%
The Dow once again pushed to record levels overnight, rising 0.68% to close at 48,254, as investors looked ahead to the expected resolution of the US government’s longest-running shutdown within the next couple of days. The S&P 500 edged slightly higher by 0.06% to 6,850, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.26% to finish at 23,406, as some profit-taking emerged across the tech sector. In currency markets, the dollar traded in familiar ranges, finishing marginally firmer with the DXY up 0.03% at 99.48. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields declined as traders increasingly priced in potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The 2-year yield fell by 2.3 basis points to 3.568%, while the 10-year dropped 4.7 basis points to 4.069%. Commodities were where the big moves occurred. Oil prices fell hard, Brent falling 3.73% to $62.73 and WTI down 4.21% to $58.48, after OPEC+ revised its long-term outlook and forecast that global oil supply will match demand by 2026 — a significant shift from its previous prediction of a supply deficit. Gold continued its strong run, gaining another 1.66% to trade at $4,195.39 at the New York close, extending its week-to-date advance to nearly 5%.

Gold Drives Higher Again – up 5% this Week
Gold has once again shone in financial markets over the last few days, with the world’s favourite precious metal gaining close to 5% from its low on Monday. Again, these moves appear to be hugely flow-driven, with little corresponding movement in other markets to justify their size. Some commentators are attributing the US government’s pending return, anticipated data resumption, and consequent Fed rate cuts to the move, and this may be a small factor, but the sheer size of the move would suggest that other factors are at play, as we saw in the big drive higher from early September. The metal is now just short of key trendline resistance on the daily chart, and if we see it smash through those levels in the next few sessions, we could see those all-time highs challenged again before the end of the month.

Busy Day Ahead for Traders
It is a busier day ahead on the economic calendar, with markets turning their attention to key data out of Australia and the UK. However, traders are expected to remain firmly focused on developments in Washington as the end of the government shutdown draws closer. The Asian session will see a strong focus on Australian markets, with crucial employment data due out. The Employment Change figure is expected to show a 20k increase for October, with the Unemployment Rate dropping 0.1% to 4.4%. The European session will again see a focus on UK markets, with GDP data due out. The month-on-month number is expected to come in flat, with the quarterly update expected at +0.2%, dropping from the previous +0.3%. There is little actually scheduled on the calendar in the New York session apart from the weekly Crude Oil Inventory data (exp. 1.0 mio barrels); however, traders are expecting government shutdown progress to ensure another lively session.

The post General Market Analysis – 13/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.09%, Shanghai Composite up 0.44%, Hang Seng down -0.63% ASX down -1.01%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,211.76 (-0.03%), Silver at $53.948 (0.92%), Brent Oil at $62.6 (-0.11%), WTI Oil at $58.39 (-0.17%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.072, UK 10-year yield at 4.4000, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6465

News & Data:

• (CAD) Building Permits m/m  4.5%  to 0.8% expected

Markets Update:

Asian markets traded mixed on Thursday, mirroring the uncertain cues from Wall Street, as investors remained cautious ahead of a slew of key US economic data. Sentiment was also shaped by the US House of Representatives’ vote to end the country’s longest-ever government shutdown, a move expected to help the Federal Reserve better assess economic conditions before its December policy meeting. Asian markets had closed mixed in the previous session.

With official US data suspended during the shutdown, traders relied on private indicators, which currently point to a 65.4 percent chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

In Australia, stocks extended losses, with the S&P/ASX 200 sliding below 8,750 amid weakness in financials, energy and technology, though gold miners provided some support. The index fell nearly 1 percent to 8,719.40. Strong October jobs data, including a drop in unemployment to 4.3 percent and a larger-than-expected increase of 42,200 positions, had little impact on sentiment. The Australian dollar hovered near $0.656.

Japan’s Nikkei moved higher, rising above 51,250 as gains in tech and financial stocks offset weakness among major index heavyweights. Producer prices rose 2.7 percent year-on-year in October, slightly above expectations. Elsewhere in Asia, trading was mostly muted, with small moves across major markets.

On Wall Street, the Dow climbed while the Nasdaq drifted lower, and Europe closed broadly higher. Crude oil slumped over 4 percent after OPEC signaled a supply surplus.

Upcoming Events:

• 07:00 AM GMT – GBP GDP m/m

The post Thursday 13th November 2025: Asian Markets Mixed Ahead of Key U.S. Data; Australia Slips, Japan Advances first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 99.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.1598

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 1.1537

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1669

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 178.08

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 177.13
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 179.63
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8817

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8763
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8872
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibnacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3257

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3102
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3319
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 201.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 200.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 204.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.7970

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7931
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8037
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 153.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 151.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 155.43

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                          

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3984

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3947

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4079

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.6515

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6447

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6621

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5689

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5614

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5760

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 47,416.67

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 47,063.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,467.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 24,105.38

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,747.33

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,512.32

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that align with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 6,805.54

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,746.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6.919.84

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 107,251.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 100,109.03

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 111,261.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 3,691.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 3,210.12

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,919.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 60.14

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 57.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 62.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,055.75

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 3,891.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,218.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 13th November 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 14/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 13 November 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
The session was dominated by the interplay between stronger-than-expected Australian labor market resilience, yen weakness testing intervention thresholds, Chinese policy stimulus announcements, and relief over the US government shutdown resolution. Australia’s employment data was the standout positive surprise, with 42,200 jobs added versus 20,000 expected and unemployment falling to 4.3%. UK GDP disappointed at 0.0% month-over-month versus 0.1% forecast. Japan’s producer prices rose 2.7% year-over-year, beating the 2.5% estimate.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
As European and US trading sessions commence on November 13, 2025, traders face a complex landscape of mixed economic signals and policy uncertainty. Australian employment strength contrasts sharply with UK growth disappointment, while US markets celebrate record highs amid government shutdown resolution hopes. Central banks maintain divergent policy stances, with the Fed signaling caution on further cuts despite market expectations, the ECB holding steady, and the BoE increasingly likely to cut in December.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar faces a complex landscape marked by deteriorating labor market conditions, uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, and the recent resolution of the record government shutdown. While trading near 99.5 on the DXY, the greenback remains under pressure from weak employment data indicating substantial private-sector job losses and growing expectations of a rate cut in December.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s performance reflects a convergence of supportive factors that extend beyond typical safe-haven dynamics. The precious metal is benefiting from elevated Fed rate-cut expectations (64-68% probability for December), dollar weakness (down 0.5% to 99.67), potential US government shutdown resolution enabling delayed economic data releases, sustained central bank buying (634 tonnes year-to-date), and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro faces a complex environment characterized by moderating inflation approaching the ECB’s 2% target, diverging monetary policies with the Federal Reserve, and mixed economic signals across the eurozone. While inflation has eased to 2.1% and overall GDP growth exceeded expectations at 0.2% quarterly, persistent challenges remain in Germany’s economy, sticky services inflation, and ongoing fiscal consolidation pressures..

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, aided by stable banking sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc is strengthening significantly, driven by expectations of an imminent U.S.–Switzerland trade deal that would reduce tariffs from 39% to 15%, easing a major pressure point on the Swiss economy. The franc continues to benefit from safe-haven flows amid global uncertainty, further supported by the SNB’s commitment to maintaining zero interest rates for the foreseeable future rather than cutting into negative territory.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

GDP m/m (7:00 am GMT)

Prelim GDP q/q (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound faces a challenging environment marked by weakening economic growth, deteriorating labour market conditions, and persistent inflation, which complicates the Bank of England’s policy response. The combination of Q3 GDP slowing to 0.2%, unemployment rising to a four-year high of 5%, and markets pricing in an 80-90% probability of a December rate cut has driven sterling to seven-month lows against the dollar. With the crucial Autumn Budget just two weeks away and political uncertainty adding to market nervousness, the pound is likely to remain under pressure in the near term.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted by a majority of 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar faces a challenging environment, balancing between modest recovery from seven-month lows and persistent structural headwinds. While surprise job gains and declining unemployment have provided near-term support, the currency remains pressured by elevated trade uncertainty with the US, weak oil prices, sluggish economic growth projections, and stubborn core inflation that limits the BoC’s policy flexibility. The central bank’s signal that it has likely finished cutting rates offers some stability, but the ongoing tariff war and its recessionary risks continue to cast a shadow over the loonie’s medium-term outlook.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to cap overall resale volumes, leading to only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Thursday’s oil market reflects a fundamental shift in supply-demand expectations. OPEC’s acknowledgment of a Q3 2025 supply surplus and balanced 2026 outlook, combined with rising U.S. inventories and a strengthening dollar, has pushed prices to three-week lows. While U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and Indian refiners seeking alternative supplies provide some support, the structural oversupply concerns and persistent dollar strength suggest continued downward pressure on crude prices in the near term.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 13 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 13/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Dow Surges on US Government Hopes – Dow up 1.2%

US equities pushed higher overnight, led by the Dow, which surged 1.18% to a fresh record close at 47,927 as optimism grew that the prolonged US government shutdown could finally end within days. The S&P 500 also gained ground, rising 0.21% to finish at 6,846, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.25% to 23,468 as investors rotated away from technology names. Bond markets were closed for the Veterans Day holiday, but in currency markets, the dollar edged lower, with the DXY moving down 0.12% to 99.47. In commodities, oil prices extended their recent rally, with Brent climbing 1.72% to $65.16 and WTI up 1.53% to $61.05, as traders priced in the likelihood of further US sanctions against Russia. Gold also advanced for a second session, adding 0.27% to reach $4,126.51, following Monday’s strong surge higher.

US Government Shutdown in Focus Today

The market will be keenly watching Washington, D.C., later today, with members of the U.S. House of Representatives headed back to the capital after a 53-day break for a vote that could end the shutdown. Most market participants fully expect the deal to pass through Congress and be signed by President Trump later this week, and US stocks have rallied well on that anticipation. However, what is not certain at the moment is when we will see the resumption of economic data, and whether we will have ‘catch-up’ data releases or just follow the scheduled release dates. On top of this, of course, investors will then need to see that the data follows recent patterns that will allow the well-priced-in Fed cut in December. So even though this is a great step in the right direction, there are still plenty of uncertainties ahead for the market that may see some strong corrections in the coming days.

Quiet Calendar Day Ahead for Traders

It is a quiet day ahead on the macro calendar, with no major data releases scheduled. However, traders expect volatility to remain elevated as all eyes turn to Washington for the anticipated congressional vote to end the government shutdown. There is very little of note on the calendar in the Asian session today, although we do hear from the RBA’s Assistant Governor Brad Jones, which could add some volatility to the Aussie. It is a similar situation in the European session today, with little scheduled, and so traders are expecting range-bound conditions ahead of the New York open. In addition to the congressional vote, we also have several Federal Reserve officials due to speak later in the session, with markets watching closely for any hints of a potential rate cut in Decemb

The post General Market Analysis – 12/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 99.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.1598

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 1.1537

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1669

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 177.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 176.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 178.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8749

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8718
Supporting reasons: Identified as overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8825
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3257

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3102
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3319
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 201.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 200.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 204.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.7987

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7938
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8037
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 152.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 151.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 154.45

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                          

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.4004

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3947

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4095

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.6515

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6447

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6621

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5689

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5614

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5760

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 47,416.67

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 46,601.64

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,048.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 23,723.86

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,334.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,218.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 6,805.54

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,696.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6.919.84

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 107,168.16

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 100,109.03

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 111,261.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 3,691.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 3,210.12

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,919.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 60.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 58.95
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 62.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,055.75

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 3,891.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,152.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 12th November 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 November 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. assets were broadly pressured overnight, with safe havens and select international equities benefitting from the data disruption and government uncertainty. The U.S. government shutdown disrupted scheduled macroeconomic releases, causing uncertainty across markets.​Investors rotated out of risk assets into gold, Bitcoin, and Treasuries.​Speculation about earlier Fed rate cuts increased due to the economic data blackout.​U.S. stocks and the dollar were among the most negatively impacted instruments, while gold, Bitcoin, and foreign equities saw gains.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian session centers on three critical catalysts: China’s October economic data revealing the effectiveness of Beijing’s stimulus measures, progress on ending the US government shutdown, and major tech earnings from Tencent and JD.com. The interplay between these factors will determine whether the recent risk-on rally continues or faces a correction. Traders should watch for signs of sustained Chinese consumer demand, manufacturing momentum, and property market stabilization, while monitoring crude oil reactions to OPEC and IEA reports.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar faces a critical juncture. The imminent government shutdown resolution should restore official economic data flows, but may reveal labor market weakness that supports further Fed easing. The November 13 CPI report will be pivotal. Stronger inflation could delay December rate cuts and support the dollar, while softer readings would reinforce dovish expectations and pressure the greenback.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is maintaining strong upward momentum, trading near three-week highs around $4,131 per ounce. The rally is supported by multiple converging factors: resolution of the 42-day US government shutdown removes fiscal uncertainty while shifting focus to deteriorating US debt dynamics; growing expectations for a 64-67% probability of a December Fed rate cut following dovish comments from Fed Governor Miran.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar faces a complex outlook as November 12 approaches. While consumer confidence has surged to seven-year highs and progress toward ending the US government shutdown has improved risk sentiment, persistent inflation has forced the RBA to maintain a cautious stance that may limit further rate cuts. The labor market is showing signs of weakness with unemployment at four-year highs, while key commodity exports face pressure from subdued Chinese demand and elevated inventories.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar faces a challenging outlook, trading near seven-month lows around 0.5640 against the US Dollar. The currency is pressured by expectations of further RBNZ rate cuts (25 basis points almost certain on November 26), weak domestic economic data, including 5.3% unemployment, six consecutive declines in dairy prices, and the NZD hitting 12-year lows against the Australian Dollar.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025, exceeding market expectations for a smaller 25-basis-point reduction and signaling a stronger commitment to reviving growth.
• The decision was reached by consensus, marking a shift from previous split votes, and reflected policymakers’ shared view that sustained economic weakness and persistent disinflationary pressures required a more front-loaded policy response.
• Annual consumer price inflation stood at 2.7% in the June quarter and is seen nearing 3% for the September quarter—above the 2% midpoint but within the 1–3% target range. Despite high near-term readings, the MPC projects inflation will return toward 2% by the first half of 2026 as spare capacity and moderating tradables curb price momentum.
• Policymakers acknowledged that domestic demand remains weak, with household spending, business investment, and construction activity under pressure. While still elevated, services inflation is expected to ease gradually as wage growth slows and unemployment edges higher.
• Financial conditions have eased with expectations as wholesale and retail borrowing rates adjust to lower policy settings. Bank lending data indicate a modest uptick in mortgage approvals, though broader credit demand remains subdued.
• GDP growth stalled in the middle of 2025, with high-frequency indicators showing continued weakness into the third quarter. A combination of elevated costs for essentials and falling savings continues to restrain household consumption, while global trade frictions weigh on business sentiment.
• The MPC noted that global uncertainty—particularly from US trade regulation changes and soft Chinese demand—continues to pose downside risks to export sectors, though these are partly offset by a weaker New Zealand dollar improving competitiveness.
• Subject to data confirming a sustained soft patch in activity and moderating inflation pressures, the MPC signaled further scope to reduce the OCR toward 2.25% at its next meeting on 26 November 2025, consistent with current market and Westpac forecasts.
• The next meeting is on 26 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen continues to face downward pressure as it trades near nine-month lows around 154.00-154.50 against the U.S. dollar. Uncertainty about the Bank of Japan’s next rate hike timing is the primary driver, despite two dissenting votes at the October meeting and growing hawkish sentiment among policymakers. The critical challenge remains confirming sustainable wage growth, as real wages have declined for nine consecutive months even as inflation stays above 2%. Prime Minister Takaichi’s incoming stimulus package and political pressure for accommodative policy add complexity to the BoJ’s decision-making.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA crude oil inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets are navigating a complex landscape characterized by oversupply concerns, subdued demand growth, and geopolitical uncertainties. While prices edged higher on Monday following optimism about the US government shutdown resolution, the fundamental picture remains bearish. OPEC+’s production pause for Q1 2026, Saudi Arabia’s significant price cuts for Asian buyers, and persistent inventory builds all point to a well-supplied market.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 12 November 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Today’s Asian session was characterized by cautiously optimistic sentiment driven primarily by the impending end to the US government shutdown, which lifted risk appetite across equity markets. However, gains were uneven, with sector-specific stories dominating individual market movements. The standout Japanese business confidence data suggests resilience in the world’s third-largest economy, supporting the case for BOJ policy normalization.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
The US Senate passed a funding bill on November 11 in a 60-40 vote, potentially ending the longest government shutdown in US history after 41 days. The House is expected to vote on the legislation as early as Wednesday afternoon, November 13, before sending it to President Trump for signing. The bill extends funding for most agencies until January 30, 2026, while including full-year funding bills for some parts of the government. This development has boosted market optimism, with equity futures rising and the US dollar weakening.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is under pressure as deteriorating labor market conditions, collapsing consumer sentiment, and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut weigh on the currency. The DXY trades around 99.46-99.55, near multi-week lows, down 6.05% over the past year. Private-sector job losses averaged 11,250 per week through late October, while consumer sentiment fell to a 3.5-year low of 50.3. Markets now price in a 68% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, up from 62% a day earlier.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s performance reflects a confluence of supportive factors positioning the precious metal for continued strength. The convergence of mounting Federal Reserve rate cut expectations (64-67% probability for December), dollar weakness, resolution of the U.S. government shutdown, and robust central bank buying (634 tonnes through September) has propelled gold to four consecutive sessions of gains around $4,130 per ounce.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro is consolidating near two-week highs around $1.1575 on November 12, 2025, supported by diverging monetary policy paths between the ECB and Federal Reserve. While the ECB maintains its cautious “data-dependent” stance with rates on hold and only a 40% chance of cuts by September 2026, the Fed continues easing amid weakening US labor market data. Eurozone economic fundamentals remain mixed: Q3 GDP growth of 0.2% meets expectations, inflation has eased to 2.1% (close to the ECB’s 2% target), and economic sentiment improved to 25.0 in November.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, aided by stable banking sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc strengthened significantly, driven primarily by optimism that Switzerland will secure a trade deal reducing US tariffs from 39% to 15% within the next two weeks. This news lifted Swiss watchmaker stocks and provided relief to an export-oriented economy that has seen its GDP growth forecasts slashed due to tariff impacts. The SNB maintains its policy rate at 0% with Chairman Schlegel indicating rates will remain on hold for an extended period, as inflation remains subdued at 0.1% in October.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound faces mounting pressure from weak labour market data that has shifted expectations sharply toward a December rate cut by the Bank of England. With unemployment at a four-year high and wage growth slowing to multi-year lows, markets now see a three-in-four chance of rates being reduced to 3.75% next month. The currency traded around 1.3166 against the dollar, with technical resistance at 1.3200 and support at 1.3100.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted by a majority of 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their vote for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar is showing resilience, rebounding from recent seven-month lows as strong domestic labor data and rising oil prices provide fundamental support, though ongoing US trade tensions and recession concerns continue to weigh on the currency’s outlook. Inflation is sticky at 2.4% with core measures at 3%, ongoing US tariff uncertainty with rates up to 35%, 35% recession probability within six months, massive budget deficit of C$78 billion, and suspended trade negotiations with the US.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to cap overall resale volumes, leading to only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA crude oil inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

The oil market remains cautious and range-bound today, with prices leveling off below recent highs as the industry awaits fresh supply/demand forecasts from OPEC and the IEA. Key market forces include a potential global supply glut, ongoing OPEC+ production increases, the effects of US sanctions on Russian flows, and demand shifts in major consuming countries. Expect continued volatility and headline-driven moves until new supply and demand data clarify the near-term trend.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 12 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down -0.34%, Shanghai Composite down -0.28%, Hang Seng up 0.52% ASX down -0.01%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,118.95 (0.04%), Silver at $50.925 (0.36%), Brent Oil at $64.93 (-0.35%), WTI Oil at $60.81 (-0.38%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.079, UK 10-year yield at 4.3880, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6574

News & Data:

• (GBP) Claimant Count Change  29.0K  to 17.6K expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher on Wednesday, following mixed cues from Wall Street overnight, amid optimism that the record 42-day U.S. government shutdown may soon end and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. The Senate’s approval of a bill to end the shutdown lifted investor sentiment, as traders shifted focus to upcoming U.S. economic data for clarity on the Fed’s policy path. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 67.6% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 is up 0.22% at 8,838.10, supported by gains in mining and energy stocks. Mineral Resources surged over 9% after selling a 30% stake in its lithium business to South Korea’s POSCO. BHP and Rio Tinto also gained over 1%. In contrast, tech stocks like Xero and Zip declined nearly 2%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.17% to 50,927.29, with gains in automakers and financials offsetting losses in tech shares. SoftBank tumbled nearly 6% after selling its $5.8 billion Nvidia stake to refocus on OpenAI investments.

Elsewhere in Asia, markets in China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore are up between 0.2% and 1.1%. On Wall Street, the Dow gained 1.18%, the S&P 500 rose 0.21%, while the NASDAQ slipped 0.25%.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD Building Permits m/m

The post Wednesday 12th November 2025: Asian Markets Advance on Hopes of U.S. Shutdown Resolution and Fed Rate Cut first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 12/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.