IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 7 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) report showed non-farm payrolls (NFPs) adding 228k jobs to the U.S. economy in March, easily surpassing market expectations of 137k. Following a gain of just 117k in February, this latest report marked the strongest figure in three months as sectors such as health care; social assistance; and in transportation and warehousing led the rebound. However, February’s figures were revised lower from 151k while the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged higher from 4.1% to 4.2%. The stronger-than-anticipated job growth sparked a massive bid for the greenback, driving the dollar index (DXY) to rally from 101.80 to a high of 103.26 before retreating to wrap up the week at 102.89.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Despite the improvement in NFPs, market sentiment remains in ‘risk-off’ mode as concerns surrounding a global trade war could escalate further this week as many nations may target the U.S. with retaliatory tariffs. Volatility remains elevated and traders should brace themselves for any market-moving tariff headlines during Monday’s Asia and European sessions.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

With no major macroeconomic data for the U.S. scheduled for release on Monday, financial news coverage will no doubt be dominated by tariff headlines. Volatility remains elevated as demand for safe-have assets such as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and U.S. Treasury bonds have surged over the past couple of weeks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

After making its latest intraday high of $3,167.72/oz last Thursday, the rally for spot gold fizzled out as it tumbled nearly 5% to close just above the $3,000 level on Friday. This precious metal could see demand return this week as sentiment in financial markets remains in a ‘risk-off’ environment.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Stronger-than-anticipated NFPs sparked a massive bid for the greenback, causing the Aussie to nosedive from 0.6300 to momentarily dip under the threshold of 0.6000 last Friday. This currency pair gapped lower at Monday’s open, falling under 0.5950 but it stabilized to rise above this threshold once more.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Just like its Pacific neighbour, the Kiwi plunged last Friday due to the stronger-than-anticipated NFPs as it broke under 0.5600. This currency pair gapped lower at Monday’s open, falling toward 0.5510 before finding a temporary floor around this zone.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Escalating concerns surrounding a global trade war have sparked demand for safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen with USD/JPY diving nearly over 7% since February. Financial markets remain in a ‘risk-off’ mode and the yen could continue to strengthen further – USD/JPY was hovering around 146.20 at the beginning of the Asia season.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Germany Industrial Production (6:00 am GMT)

Germany Trade Balance (6:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Following Germany’s aggressive fiscal plan to revive and kickstart their economy, the Euro rallied well over 6% since the beginning of March. This currency pair hit 1.1145 last Thursday before reversing sharply to close at 1.0963 on Friday. The Euro will likely continue to see strong tailwinds as the new trading week gets underway, especially if Germany’s industrial production rebounds in February and the trade balance posts a wider surplus.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Escalating concerns surrounding a global trade war have sparked demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc with USD/CHF diving nearly 6% since the beginning of March. This currency pair tumbled as low as 0.8476 last Friday and was floating around 0.8550 as Asian markets came online. However, overhead pressures remain in place.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Cable briefly surged past 1.3207 last Thursday before Friday’s stronger-than-anticipated NFPs deflated the upward momentum. This currency pair tumbled sharply before closing at 1.2892 on Friday. However, demand for the pound returned as markets resumed trading on Monday – Cable initially gapped lower to open at 1.2815 before rallying strongly toward 1.2900.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

BoC Business Outlook Survey (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will release its business survey on future economic conditions, activity and sentiment where about 1,000 businesses are asked to rate the relative level of general business conditions, such as sales growth, investment in machinery, employment, inflation expectations, and credit conditions. Given the backdrop of mounting trade tariffs between the U.S. and Canada, this survey is likely to paint an incredibly bleak outlook for the Canadian economy. The Loonie has rallied 3% against the dollar since early March with USD/CAD diving as low as 1.4027 last Thursday – downward pressures remain firmly intact for this currency pair.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices nosedived last week with WTI oil plunging nearly 13% to mark its largest weekly decline since March 2020. Growing concerns that a global trade war could slow the world’s economy and weaken oil demand significantly have triggered an intense sell-off. After closing at $61.99 per barrel last Friday, WTI oil gapped lower as markets reopened, extending the losses – this benchmark fell under the $60 mark as Asian markets came online.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 7 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Smashed Again as Tariff Pain Continues – S&P Down 6%

US stock markets were smashed again on Friday, with $5 trillion now having been wiped off the market since President Trump announced his tariff plans on Wednesday. Risk appetite was not helped by a stronger Non-Farms print and less dovish comments from Jerome Powell on Friday. All three of the major indices closed well over 5% down by the close – the Dow off 5.50%, the S&P down 5.97%, and the Nasdaq 5.82% lower. The dollar jumped higher against most of the majors, with the exception of haven currencies Yen and Swiss; the DXY was up 1.01% at 103.02. US Treasury yields finished lower on the day, although the impact was reduced after the stronger jobs number – the 2-year down 3 basis points to 3.652% and the 10-year off 3.4 basis points to 3.994%. Oil prices also crashed further as global growth concerns increased – Brent down 6.50% to $65.58 and WTI down 7.41% to $61.99 a barrel. Gold also fell off its recent highs in line with the stronger dollar, down 2.47% on the day to $3,036.34 an ounce.

Aussie Dollar in Trouble in Risk-Averse Markets

Aussie Dollar traders are preparing for another tough week ahead as markets continue to react to global trade concerns. The Aussie has long been associated as a risk proxy for overall markets, and in recent days its status has come back with a vengeance, as it has collapsed against the dollar and, more significantly, on the crosses. It has dropped over 7% against the greenback from its post-tariff announcement high just under 64 cents to its low this morning just above 59 cents. It has seen similar percentage losses against the Euro (7.45%), Sterling (6.50%), and the Yen (8.19%), and moves this morning on the Asian open do not bode well for any bulls that may remain in the market. Traders will continue to look for levels to sell the Aussie in this environment, however experienced campaigners will also be keeping close eyes on the newswires for any change in tariffs from the US, which could see some sharp relief rallies.

Macroeconomic Calendar Offers No Respite to Market Volatility

Global financial markets have opened the week under intense pressure after another ‘sea of red’ on Wall Street on Friday, and the macroeconomic calendar is offering nothing in the way of respite for a couple of days at least. There are no major economic data or central bank updates due for the first couple of trading days this week, and therefore geopolitical updates and reactions are set to dominate market sentiment. The Asian session today sees the return of Chinese markets after a bank holiday on Friday, and given the moves that we have seen in global markets, as well as the increase in tariff measures, traders are expecting to see a messy start to the day’s trading. The European and US sessions are also set to have a focus on newswires and any tariff updates; however, at the moment, respite for already shocked markets seems a long way off.

The post General Market Analysis – 07/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global financial markets were smashed last week after President Trump announced sweeping trade reforms by implementing sweeping tariffs for imports into the United States.

US stock markets experienced their worst week since the coronavirus crisis nearly five years ago, and a stronger jobs report on Friday afternoon, along with comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the Fed will not be rushing to cut rates in this environment, has added to recession fears. Investors fear that there could be more pain ahead this week.

It is a much quieter macroeconomic event calendar in the week ahead, but there will be a major focus on key US inflation data later in the week. However, most traders are still expecting tariff updates to dominate sentiment as the days progress.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

The first day of the trading week has little in the way of scheduled market events across all three trading sessions, and so investors are expecting to see the market kick off on the back foot given how hard Wall Street was hit on Friday.

It is a similar story on Tuesday in terms of data releases or scheduled events. There are some sentiment updates in the Asian session in Australia and Japan; however, impact is expected to be limited in the currency environment. Canadian markets will come into focus on the New York open with the Ivey PMI data due out, and we do hear from the Fed’s Mary Daly later in the day, but once again expect geopolitical factors to dominate.

Central Banks will be in focus for the day on Wednesday with some major updates due out. The Asian session will see the initial focus on New Zealand and their latest rate call, where they are expected to cut by 25 basis points from 3.75% to 3.50%. The focus switches to Japan later in the day with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda due to speak in Tokyo. There is then a long break before close to the end of the day when the Fed’s latest Meeting Minutes are released.

Inflation numbers are in focus for Thursday, with key data due out of the world’s two biggest economies. First up, we have Chinese CPI and PPI data due in the Asian session, before the key event of the week soon after the New York open when the US CPI data is released alongside the Weekly Unemployment Claims data. We also hear from several central bankers during the day, including RBA Governor Michele Bullock, the MPC’s Sarah Breedon, and the Fed’s Logan, Harker, Goolsbee, and Bowman.

There is little scheduled for the Asian session on Friday, but the early focus once Europe opens will be on UK markets as the latest GDP numbers are released. There is more inflation data due out of the UK soon after the New York open with the PPI data due out, and this is followed by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data. The week is rounded out with more Fed updates, as FOMC members Musalem, Williams, and Greene all speak towards the end of the day.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 07 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 7/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 3.14%, Shanghai Composite down 0.22%, Hang Seng down 1.53% ASX down 2.44%
• Commodities : Gold at $3122.35 (0.04%), Silver at $31.7 (-0.48%), Brent Oil at $69.5 (-1.15%), WTI Oil at $66.26 (-0.04%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 3.979, UK 10-year yield at 4.5225, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6405

News & Data:

• (CAD) Trade Balance -1.5B  to 3.4B expected
• (USD) Trade Balance -122.7B  to -122.5B expected
• (USD) Unemployment Claims 219K  to 225K  expected

Markets Update:

Japan’s stock market led regional declines on Friday, tracking steep losses on Wall Street after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs unsettled global markets. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 2.44%, entering correction territory after an 11% drop since February. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 3.04%, while the Topix tumbled 5.09%. South Korea’s Kospi slipped 1.78%, and the small-cap Kosdaq declined 0.87% following the Constitutional Court’s decision to uphold President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will serve as acting president until a new leader is elected within 60 days.

Markets in Hong Kong and China remained closed for the Qingming Festival. Meanwhile, Trump announced new tariffs on Wednesday, imposing reciprocal rates on over 180 countries, escalating fears of a global trade war. The move triggered a broad sell-off in U.S. equities, leading to the largest single-day decline in five years. U.S. futures also retreated, with blue-chip index futures losing 100 points (0.3%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures shed 0.2%.

Overnight, major U.S. stock indexes plunged. The S&P 500 re-entered correction territory, dropping 4.84% to 5,396.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 1,679.39 points (3.98%) to 40,545.93, while the Nasdaq Composite posted its worst loss since March 2020, sinking 5.97% to 16,550.61.

With ongoing market volatility, investors remain cautious amid concerns over Trump’s tariff policies and South Korea’s political uncertainty. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the broader economic impact.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Employment Change
• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Unemployment rate
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Non Farm employment change
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment rate
• 03:25 PM GMT – USD FED chair Powell Speaks

The post Friday 4th April 2025: Markets Plunge Amid Tariffs and Political Turmoil first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 4 April 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

With China’s and Hong Kong’s stock markets and banks closed on Friday morning in observance of Tomb Sweeping Day, it was a relatively quiet session as the dollar index (DXY) hovered around 101.70 while spot prices for gold floated above $3,100/oz. ‘Risk-off’ sentiment continues to grow as evident in the price action of European and U.S. equity futures.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Construction activity in the U.K. has declined sharply over the last couple of months, falling into contraction for the months of January and February. PMI output fell to 44.6 in February, down from 48.1 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 49.5. The latest reading indicated a sharp decline in overall construction activity and marked the steepest drop since May 2020, driven by weak demand, elevated borrowing costs, and a shortage of new projects to replace completed ones. The forecast of 46.3 points to a marginal improvement in construction activity but this sector would still remain in contraction for the third successive month. However, Cable surged over 1.6% over the past few days as demand for the greenback eviscerated following the tariff announcements on Liberation Day – this currency pair will likely retain its upward momentum despite a weak construction sector.

Canada will release its Labour Force report at the same time as the U.S. NFPs, where 10.4k jobs are expected to be added to the Canadian economy while the unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher from 6.6% to 6.7% in March. Coupled with escalating concerns surrounding a global trade war, Canadian and U.S. financial markets will no doubt face extreme volatility later today.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chairman Powell’s Speech (3:25 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the non-farm payrolls (NFPs) for March where 137k jobs are expected to be added to the U.S. economy, lower than the previous month’s gains of 151k, while the unemployment rate is set to remain unchanged at 4.1%. With the ADP reporting stronger-than-anticipated job gains on Wednesday, could NFP’s post a larger figure? If so, it could function as a much-needed bullish catalyst for the dollar.

Later on, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking about the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Annual Conference in Arlington where audience questions are expected. Following the slew of tariff announcements on 2nd April, Chairman Powell could be peppered with questions about how these tariffs could impact the Fed’s decision-making process. Whatever the outcome, volatility is likely to surge once more during the U.S. trading hours.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chairman Powell’s Speech (3:25 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the non-farm payrolls (NFPs) for March where 137k jobs are expected to be added to the U.S. economy, lower than the previous month’s gains of 151k, while the unemployment rate is set to remain unchanged at 4.1%. With the ADP reporting stronger-than-anticipated job gains on Wednesday, could NFP’s post a larger figure? If so, it could function as a much-needed bullish catalyst for the dollar.

Later on, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking about the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Annual Conference in Arlington where audience questions are expected. Following the slew of tariff announcements on 2nd April, Chairman Powell could be peppered with questions about how these tariffs could impact the Fed’s decision-making process. Whatever the outcome, volatility is likely to surge once more during the U.S. trading hours.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Since Tuesday, the Aussie rallied over 2.5% before fizzling out around 0.6390 on Thursday.  This currency pair retreated quickly overnight and was edging lower toward 0.6300 at the beginning of Friday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi has surged over 3% since Tuesday as it hit an overnight high of 0.5853 before pulling back quite sharply. This currency pair was floating around 0.5780 and it could face some near-term headwinds on the final trading day of the week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The latest announcements of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Liberation Day rattled financial markets, sparking fierce demand for safe-haven assets such as the yen. The ‘risk-off’ sentiment caused USD/JPY to dive under 146 as it shed nearly 3% over the past couple of days – this currency pair retraced overnight to climb above 146 but overhead pressures remain firmly intact.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

Thursday’s final PMI readings for manufacturing and services activity in the Euro Area marked an improvement in March, exceeding their respective forecasts. This marked the third consecutive month of expansion at the Composite level and the strongest growth since last August. Along with falling demand for the greenback, the Euro rallied over 3% to hit an overnight high of 1.1145 before pulling back slightly. This currency pair edged higher toward 1.1100 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Despite inflationary pressures in Switzerland dissipating significantly since the fourth quarter of 2022, growing concerns for a global trade war have spared intense demand for the franc with USD/CHF diving over 2.8% over the past couple of days. Overhead pressures continue to build for this currency pair as it slid toward 0.8550 at the beginning of Friday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Construction PMI (8:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Construction activity in the U.K. has declined sharply over the last couple of months, falling into contraction for the months of January and February. PMI output fell to 44.6 in February, down from 48.1 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 49.5. The latest reading indicated a sharp decline in overall construction activity and marked the steepest drop since May 2020, driven by weak demand, elevated borrowing costs, and a shortage of new projects to replace completed ones. The forecast of 46.3 points to a marginal improvement in construction activity but this sector would still remain in contraction for the third successive month. However, Cable surged over 1.6% over the past few days as demand for the greenback eviscerated following the tariff announcements on Liberation Day – this currency pair will likely retain its upward momentum despite a weak construction sector.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Labour Force Report (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Canada will release its Labour Force report at the same time as the U.S. NFPs, where 10.4k jobs are expected to be added to the Canadian economy while the unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher from 6.6% to 6.7% in March. Coupled with escalating concerns surrounding a global trade war, Canadian and U.S. financial markets will no doubt face extreme volatility later today. The Loonie has gained 1.8% this week, causing USD/CAD to tumble sharply under 1.4100 – this currency pair was floating around 1.4050 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices nosedived on Thursday with WTI oil plunging nearly 8% at its lowest point to momentarily dive under $66 per barrel – this drop marked the steepest percentage loss since 2022. Not only did oil markets have to absorb the slew of tariff announcements by the White House on Liberation Day, but OPEC+ also surprised market participants with an agreement to increase production output. During Thursday’s OPEC-JMMC meetings, the OPEC+ member countries agreed to advance their plan for oil output hikes, now aiming to return 411k barrels per day (bpd) to the market in May, up from the 135k bpd that was planned initially. Oil prices are all set to notch its first weekly decline in four weeks.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 4 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the Ching Ming Festival  on Friday, 04 April, 2025.

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +3).

Kind regards,

IC Markets Global.

The post Ching Ming Festival Holiday Trading Schedule 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 100.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 97.56
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 103.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1130
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance , indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 1.0953
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1214
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78% Fibonacci projection,, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 162.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 158.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.03
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8459
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8402
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8522
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3257
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.3013
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3435
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 192.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 189.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 195.93
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8747
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8548
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8855
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 146.77
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 143.67
Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 148.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4120

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.3988
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4174
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6267
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci retracements i.e. the 78.6% retracement and the 78.6% projection, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.6237

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 100% Fibonacci projection, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6359
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5720
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.5669

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5828

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 40,673.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 40,202.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 41,268.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 21,948.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 21,528.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 22,256.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 38.2% and the 61.8% retracements, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,451.60

Supporting reasons:  Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 5,325.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,508.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 81,319.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 78,564.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 88,428.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1,913.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1,751.68
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,038.78
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 66.54

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 65.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 68.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is testing the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3114.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 3056.66
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3169.01
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Friday 4th April 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 4 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Unemployment claims fell from 225k in the previous week to 219k in the latest report, below market expectations of 225k. Claims have remained relatively low and stable over the past five weeks – a sign of a resilient labour market. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report for Service PMI showed activity for this sector falling sharply to 50.8 in March from 53.5 in the previous month. Not only did the latest reading come in well below forecasts of 53, but it also marked the softest expansion in the services sector since June last year. Combined with the tariff announcements by the White House late on Wednesday, financial markets have been rocked as demand for safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and U.S. Treasury bonds surged while the greenback was dumped. The dollar index (DXY) tumbled over 2.3% at its lowest point before settling around 101.94 to close down 1.7% on Thursday.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

China’s and Hong Kong’s stock markets and banks will be closed on Friday morning in observance of Tomb Sweeping Day. Coupled with no major data releases during this session, traders should brace themselves for lower liquidity and perhaps irregular volatility in the initial half of the day.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chairman Powell’s Speech (3:25 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the non-farm payrolls (NFPs) for March where 137k jobs are expected to be added to the U.S. economy, lower than the previous month’s gains of 151k, while the unemployment rate is set to remain unchanged at 4.1%. With the ADP reporting stronger-than-anticipated job gains on Wednesday, could NFP’s post a larger figure? If so, it could function as a much-needed bullish catalyst for the dollar.

Later on, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking about the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Annual Conference in Arlington where audience questions are expected. Following the slew of tariff announcements on 2nd April, Chairman Powell could be peppered with questions about how these tariffs could impact the Fed’s decision-making process. Whatever the outcome, volatility is likely to surge once more during the U.S. trading hours.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chairman Powell’s Speech (3:25 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the non-farm payrolls (NFPs) for March where 137k jobs are expected to be added to the U.S. economy, lower than the previous month’s gains of 151k, while the unemployment rate is set to remain unchanged at 4.1%. With the ADP reporting stronger-than-anticipated job gains on Wednesday, could NFP’s post a larger figure? If so, it could function as a much-needed bullish catalyst for the dollar.

Later on, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking about the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Annual Conference in Arlington where audience questions are expected. Following the slew of tariff announcements on 2nd April, Chairman Powell could be peppered with questions about how these tariffs could impact the Fed’s decision-making process. Whatever the outcome, volatility is likely to surge once more during the U.S. trading hours.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Since Tuesday, the Aussie rallied over 2.5% before fizzling out around 0.6390 on Thursday.  This currency pair retreated quickly overnight and was edging lower toward 0.6300 at the beginning of Friday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi has surged over 3% since Tuesday as it hit an overnight high of 0.5853 before pulling back quite sharply. This currency pair was floating around 0.5780 and it could face some near-term headwinds on the final trading day of the week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The latest announcements of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Liberation Day rattled financial markets, sparking fierce demand for safe-haven assets such as the yen. The ‘risk-off’ sentiment caused USD/JPY to dive under 146 as it shed nearly 3% over the past couple of days – this currency pair retraced overnight to climb above 146 but overhead pressures remain firmly intact.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

Thursday’s final PMI readings for manufacturing and services activity in the Euro Area marked an improvement in March, exceeding their respective forecasts. This marked the third consecutive month of expansion at the Composite level and the strongest growth since last August. Along with falling demand for the greenback, the Euro rallied over 3% to hit an overnight high of 1.1145 before pulling back slightly. This currency pair edged higher toward 1.1100 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Despite inflationary pressures in Switzerland dissipating significantly since the fourth quarter of 2022, growing concerns for a global trade war have spared intense demand for the franc with USD/CHF diving over 2.8% over the past couple of days. Overhead pressures continue to build for this currency pair as it slid toward 0.8550 at the beginning of Friday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Construction PMI (8:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Construction activity in the U.K. has declined sharply over the last couple of months, falling into contraction for the months of January and February. PMI output fell to 44.6 in February, down from 48.1 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 49.5. The latest reading indicated a sharp decline in overall construction activity and marked the steepest drop since May 2020, driven by weak demand, elevated borrowing costs, and a shortage of new projects to replace completed ones. The forecast of 46.3 points to a marginal improvement in construction activity but this sector would still remain in contraction for the third successive month. However, Cable surged over 1.6% over the past few days as demand for the greenback eviscerated following the tariff announcements on Liberation Day – this currency pair will likely retain its upward momentum despite a weak construction sector.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Labour Force Report (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Canada will release its Labour Force report at the same time as the U.S. NFPs, where 10.4k jobs are expected to be added to the Canadian economy while the unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher from 6.6% to 6.7% in March. Coupled with escalating concerns surrounding a global trade war, Canadian and U.S. financial markets will no doubt face extreme volatility later today. The Loonie has gained 1.8% this week, causing USD/CAD to tumble sharply under 1.4100 – this currency pair was floating around 1.4050 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices nosedived on Thursday with WTI oil plunging nearly 8% at its lowest point to momentarily dive under $66 per barrel – this drop marked the steepest percentage loss since 2022. Not only did oil markets have to absorb the slew of tariff announcements by the White House on Liberation Day, but OPEC+ also surprised market participants with an agreement to increase production output. During Thursday’s OPEC-JMMC meetings, the OPEC+ member countries agreed to advance their plan for oil output hikes, now aiming to return 411k barrels per day (bpd) to the market in May, up from the 135k bpd that was planned initially. Oil prices are all set to notch its first weekly decline in four weeks.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 4 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Markets Smashed After Tariff Update – Nasdaq Down 6%

US stock markets were smashed in trading yesterday as investors reacted to President Trump’s sweeping global trade tariffs. Stock markets suffered their worst day for nearly five years as $2.5 trillion was wiped off the market, the Dow dropping 3.98%, the S&P losing 4.84% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq falling 5.97%. Treasury yields took a huge hit as markets priced in Fed rate cuts, the 2-year down 17.8 basis points to 3.681% and the benchmark 10-year down 10.3 basis points to 4.02%. Oil prices collapsed as they took a double hit from global growth concerns and an unexpected increase in OPEC+ production levels, Brent down 6.72% to $69.91 and WTI down 6.64% to $66.95. Gold closed the day slightly lower after a choppy trading session, down 0.65% at $3,112.84 an ounce.

Dollar Smashed After Tariff Update

The dollar ultimately finished yesterday’s trading sessions at its lowest level since November last year as President Trump’s tariff updates pushed up expectations of stagflation and a US recession. But it was not all one-way traffic for the greenback, as the initial reaction against most of the majors – with the exception of the yen – was for the dollar to strengthen. However, once US markets opened and investors piled into bonds, pushing US treasury yields down, the dollar dropped hard, with the DXY losing 1.04% on the day to close at 102.07. The DXY is now sitting just above its support trendline on the daily chart, and if yields take another hit in trading today, traders are expecting to see the dollar sink further, with the next support level down at 101.25.

Non-Farms in Focus Later Today

It is by no means a traditional Non-Farms trading day today as global financial markets continue to react to President Trump’s tariffs and risk continues to take a big hit. However, later today, traders will swiftly change focus from geopolitical concerns and trade war talk to look at key fundamental data when US employment numbers are released. There is little on the dance card in the Asian session and UK traders will pause to see the latest UK Construction PMI data early in the European session, but really the US employment data could be the only thing that will take focus off trade concerns. Market expectation is for the headline Non-Farms number to show an increase of 140k new jobs last month, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1% and Average Hourly Earnings having a 0.3% month-on-month increase. Canadian employment numbers are out at the same time, but expect them to be superseded by the US data and geopolitical concerns.

The post General Markets Analysis – 04/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to providing the best trading experience to our clients, we want to inform you there will be an adjustment in the trading schedule due to the Australia ending Daylight Savings on Sunday, 6 April 2025.

While trading, most products will remain unaffected; however, there will be a change in the trading hours of some products.

All times mentioned below are expressed as Platform time (GMT +3) except for cTrader (GMT+0).

MT4/5:

cTrader:

For any further assistance, please contact our Support Team.

Kind regards,

IC Markets Global.

The post Australian Daylight Savings: Updated Trading Schedule 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 4/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.