IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 31 October 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. trading session was characterized by significant volatility driven by three major catalysts: the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate cut, mixed Big Tech earnings revealing surging AI costs, and a tentative U.S.-China trade truce. Chair Powell’s cautious stance on future rate cuts triggered a repricing across asset classes, with Treasury yields surging, the dollar strengthening, and rate-cut probabilities declining sharply. The U.S.-China trade agreement provided some relief but lacked concrete details, leaving markets cautious about its durability.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Friday presents a data-heavy session for Asian traders with several market-moving releases. The combination of China’s PMI data showing continued manufacturing weakness, Japan’s inflation readings supporting potential BOJ rate hikes, and Australia’s credit growth metrics will provide crucial insights into regional economic health. The backdrop of evolving U.S.-China trade relations, recent central bank decisions, and global inflation trends creates a complex trading environment requiring careful attention to both domestic fundamentals and international policy developments.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar’s strength heading into the weekend reflects several competing forces. Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish messaging and emphasis on policy uncertainty provided immediate support, as markets recalibrated expectations for further rate cuts. The US-China trade agreement removed a significant geopolitical risk, though questions remain about implementation and longer-term sustainability. The government shutdown continues to damage economic activity, with the CBO estimating permanent GDP losses. Labor market weakness is evident in alternative data despite the absence of official reports.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold markets reflect a complex interplay of supportive fundamentals and near-term technical pressures. Record-breaking Q3 demand totaling 1,313 tonnes, sustained central bank buying approaching 900 tonnes annually, and surging ETF inflows demonstrate robust institutional and retail appetite for the precious metal.​ However, the Federal Reserve’s cautious rate-cut outlook, progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, and profit-taking following the 50% year-to-date rally have triggered a healthy correction from October’s record highs.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

Trump-Xi meeting at APEC summit yielded agreements to reduce tariffs from 57% to 47%, suspend rare earth restrictions, and resume agricultural purchases—reducing regional uncertainty and supporting commodity currencies.​ As expected, the Fed delivered a 25bp cut to 3.75-4.00%, but Powell’s hawkish tone, warning against assuming a December cut, sent the dollar higher and pressured AUD/USD despite strong Australian inflation

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at its October meeting on 29–30 September 2025, marking a second consecutive pause after August’s 25 basis point cut. The move affirms the Bank’s data-dependent approach as inflation trends within the target range.
• Inflation indicators remained stable through September, with headline CPI likely anchoring near 2.2%—comfortably within the 2–3% band. Insurance and housing costs remain sticky but are increasingly offset by moderation in discretionary goods.
• Trimmed mean inflation is estimated at around 2.8%, signaling underlying pressures remain contained. The Board continues to flag food and energy price volatility as short-term risks, though the broader disinflation narrative holds.
• Global conditions remain a source of uncertainty. U.S. policy expectations and uneven growth in China continue to weigh on commodities, even as trade disruptions have eased marginally since mid-year.
• Domestic growth shows resilience in the housing and services sectors, though manufacturing remains subdued. Household incomes have stabilized, but consumption remains only modest, capped by high borrowing costs.
• The labor market maintains relative tightness, though job growth has slowed notably since the first half of the year. Underutilization has ticked higher, but overall employment conditions remain supportive.
• Wage growth is plateauing, reflecting softer labor demand. Weak productivity continues to keep unit labor costs elevated, underscoring a medium-term concern highlighted repeatedly by the RBA.
• Household consumption prospects remain fragile. The combination of high rents and weak discretionary appetite suggests risks of a consumer-led slowdown in Q4 if confidence fails to rebound.
• The Board reiterated that subdued household spending poses risks to business sentiment and may dampen investment and job creation in the coming quarters.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive. The RBA balanced confidence in inflation progress with caution around global and domestic demand risks, keeping further adjustments conditional on incoming data.
• The Bank reaffirmed its dual commitment to price stability and full employment, noting its readiness to act should conditions shift markedly.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar faces a challenging environment as it closes out October 2025. While improving business confidence and the US-China trade truce provide some positive underpinnings, several factors are weighing on the currency. Negative Pressures: Renewed US Dollar strength following hawkish Fed commentary, declining dairy prices in consecutive GDT auctions, weak consumer confidence, and expectations of further RBNZ rate cuts are limiting NZD upside.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025, exceeding market expectations for a smaller 25-basis-point reduction and signaling a stronger commitment to reviving growth.
• The decision was reached by consensus, marking a shift from previous split votes, and reflected policymakers’ shared view that sustained economic weakness and persistent disinflationary pressures required a more front-loaded policy response.
• Annual consumer price inflation stood at 2.7% in the June quarter and is seen nearing 3% for the September quarter—above the 2% midpoint but within the 1–3% target range. Despite high near-term readings, the MPC projects inflation will return toward 2% by the first half of 2026 as spare capacity and moderating tradables curb price momentum.
• Policymakers acknowledged that domestic demand remains weak, with household spending, business investment, and construction activity under pressure. While still elevated, services inflation is expected to ease gradually as wage growth slows and unemployment edges higher.
• Financial conditions have eased with expectations as wholesale and retail borrowing rates adjust to lower policy settings. Bank lending data indicate a modest uptick in mortgage approvals, though broader credit demand remains subdued.
• GDP growth stalled in the middle of 2025, with high-frequency indicators showing continued weakness into the third quarter. A combination of elevated costs for essentials and falling savings continues to restrain household consumption, while global trade frictions weigh on business sentiment.
• The MPC noted that global uncertainty—particularly from US trade regulation changes and soft Chinese demand—continues to pose downside risks to export sectors, though these are partly offset by a weaker New Zealand dollar improving competitiveness.
• Subject to data confirming a sustained soft patch in activity and moderating inflation pressures, the MPC signaled further scope to reduce the OCR toward 2.25% at its next meeting on 26 November 2025, consistent with current market and Westpac forecasts.
• The next meeting is on 26 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen faces significant headwinds entering the weekend, pressured by the BOJ’s dovish hold on rates, widening monetary policy divergence with the Fed, improved U.S.-China trade relations that reduce safe-haven demand, and Governor Ueda’s cautious stance on near-term tightening. While inflation remains above the BOJ’s 2% target and manufacturing data shows continued contraction, policymakers appear willing to maintain accommodative policy until wage growth solidifies and global economic uncertainties—particularly around U.S. trade policies—diminish.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices remain under pressure, driven by record global output, continued oversupply, and tepid demand. Brent hovers under $65/barrel, and WTI sits below $60/barrel, with additional supply from OPEC+ anticipated next month. Despite a sharp draw in US inventories and some bright spots (e.g., jet fuel demand, BP’s Brazil discovery), the outlook is bearish as fears of a large global surplus persist. Key upcoming events—the Trump–Xi summit and OPEC+ supply review—could trigger short-term volatility, but unless demand picks up, the multi-month downtrend in oil prices is likely to continue into November.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 31 October 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.66%, Shanghai Composite down -0.63%, Hang Seng down -0.83% ASX up 0.28%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,010.60 (-0.13%), Silver at $48.390 (-0.46%), Brent Oil at $63.94 (-0.67%), WTI Oil at $60.15 (-0.69%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.104, UK 10-year yield at 4.4280, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6375

News & Data:

• (EUR) Main Refinancing Rate  2.15%  to 2.15% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets traded mixed on Friday, tracking weak cues from Wall Street as investors reassessed the outlook for U.S. interest rates after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said another rate cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion.” Positive updates from U.S.–China talks, including tariff and trade relaxations, helped limit downside pressure.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 72.8% chance of a December rate cut, down from 91% a week earlier. The U.S. agreed to lower tariffs on China-linked fentanyl goods, while China will resume soybean purchases and suspend rare-earth export controls.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.21% to 8,903.80, supported by strong gold miners but capped by weakness in tech and energy shares. Gold miners like Northern Star and Evolution Mining surged over 4%. However, Steadfast shares plunged nearly 10% following an internal probe into its CEO, while Mayne Pharma plummeted 32% amid takeover concerns. Producer prices rose 1% in Q3, the fastest since late 2024.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.21% to a record 51,948.26, driven by strong tech and exporter gains. Advantest, Renesas, and Hitachi rallied sharply, though Panasonic and automakers declined. Economic data showed higher retail sales and industrial output in September, while inflation in Tokyo accelerated to 2.8%.

Elsewhere, China, Hong Kong, and Singapore slipped, while New Zealand and South Korea advanced.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD GDP m/m

The post Friday 31st October 2025: Asian Markets Mixed Amid Fed Uncertainty and U.S.–China Trade Optimism first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 99.2

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.55

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 9100.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1620

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1542

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1666

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 177.75

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 176.45
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 178.77
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8749

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8718
Supporting reasons: Identified as overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8809
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3260

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3115
Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3355
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 203,200

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 201,71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 204.03
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7980

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7932
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8028
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 153.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 151.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 154.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                          

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3969

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3890

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4029

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.6524

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6484

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6590

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5755

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5686

Supporting reasons: Identified as aa swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5809

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 47,059.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up

1st support: 46,447.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,184.09

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,175.32

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 23,935.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,340.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is falling toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,760.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up

1st support: 6,696.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,922.99

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 111,191.38

Supporting reasons: Identified as  an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 104,980.51

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 115,531.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3,937.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 3,694.07

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,051.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 60.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 57.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 63.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,053.83

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 3,891.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,177.54
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Friday 31st October 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 31/10/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Fed Cut Overshadowed by Hawkish Tone – Dow Down 0.15%
Markets moved sharply overnight after the Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut, but the move was largely overshadowed by a more hawkish tone in both the accompanying statement and Chair Powell’s press conference. The mixed message unsettled investors, leaving U.S. equities without clear direction by the close. The Dow dipped 0.16% to close at 47,632, while the S&P 500 held near 6,890. Tech stocks fared better, helping the Nasdaq gain 0.55% to 23,958. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened 0.56% to 99.22, while U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 2-year rising 10.8 basis points to 3.602% and the 10-year up 8.6 basis points to 4.070%. Oil prices edged higher, with Brent crude up 0.36% to $64.63 and WTI gaining 0.56% to $60.48. Gold, meanwhile, endured a volatile session before ultimately falling 0.56% to $3,929.36, pressured by the stronger dollar and rising yields.

Dollar Pushes Higher After Fed Meeting
The dollar gained ground across the majors yesterday after the Federal Reserve Bank cut rates by 25 basis points as expected but was much more hawkish on its forward guidance than the market expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell advised that another rate cut in December was by no means a foregone conclusion, and market pricing dropped from around 90% to 60% for a cut at the next meeting. Treasury yields and the dollar both jumped higher, and FX traders are now set for interest rate differential trades that traditionally take longer-term trends to exert more pressure over the next few days. The Bank of Japan is the next cab off the rank today, and if they pull back significantly on their previous hawkish outlook, USD/JPY could push much higher in the coming sessions.

Another Busy Day for Traders Ahead
It promises to be another busy day on the data and central bank front. In Asia, focus will be firmly on Japan, where the Bank of Japan is set to announce its latest interest rate decision, followed by a press conference that could shed light on the outlook for policy normalization and yen intervention risks. We are also set to hear from President Trump when he updates the markets on the China–U.S. trade situation. In the London session, attention will turn to a series of key inflation and growth releases. Germany will publish its preliminary CPI figures throughout the day, while Spain’s flash CPI data is due out shortly after. Later in the session, German GDP numbers will provide further insight into the health of Europe’s largest economy. The spotlight will then shift to the European Central Bank, with its interest rate decision scheduled midway through the day, followed by President Lagarde’s press conference. Markets will be watching closely for any shift in tone regarding inflation persistence and potential easing in the months ahead. The New York session is relatively quiet, with little on the cards; however, expect more fallout from the Fed’s latest update and any further geopolitical news.

The post General Market Analysis – 30/10/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 98.55

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci , indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.53
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1620

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1553

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1666

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 177.75

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 174.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 179.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8749

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8718
Supporting reasons: Identified as overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8809
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.326

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3115
Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3355
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could rise toward the pivot and make a short-term pullback toward this level before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 202.74

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 200.47
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 204.03
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price is falling toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7921

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7874
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7996
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 153.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 151.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 154.300

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                                

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3969

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3079

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4029

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.6524

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6484

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6590

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5803

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5755

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5837

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 47,059.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up

1st support: 46,447.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,184.09

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,175.32

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 23,935.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,340.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is falling toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,760.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up

1st support: 6,696.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,922.99

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 116,139.03

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 107,689.12

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 119,893.62

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 3,837.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 3,694.07

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,051.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 60.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 57.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 63.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,053.83

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 3,891.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,177.54
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 30th October 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 October 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. trading session was characterized by record-breaking equity performance fueled by major technology sector developments, positive U.S.-China trade framework progress, and strong corporate earnings that exceeded expectations. The Microsoft-OpenAI restructuring and Nvidia-Nokia partnership announcements catalyzed significant gains in tech megacaps, pushing the S&P 500 above 6,800 and the Nasdaq to new highs..​

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Thursday’s Asian session centers on the Bank of Japan’s policy decision and Tokyo CPI data, both critical for yen direction and regional market sentiment. The ECB meeting and European inflation/GDP data will drive EUR crosses, while the Australian dollar’s strength following hot inflation data positions it as an outperformer. Record highs in Japanese and South Korean equities face tests from central bank decisions, while gold’s rebound and cryptocurrency weakness add to market complexity. Traders should monitor central bank commentary closely, as tone and forward guidance will be more market-moving than the expected policy holds.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar demonstrated resilience, supported by Fed Chair Powell’s cautious stance on future rate cuts and optimism surrounding the US-China trade framework agreement. While the Fed delivered an expected 25 basis point cut, Powell’s message that December action is “not a foregone conclusion” provided a hawkish counterbalance. The breakthrough in US-China trade negotiations ahead of the Trump-Xi summit removed the threat of devastating 100% tariffs, boosting risk sentiment while preventing further dollar weakness.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices on Thursday are stabilizing around $4,000-$4,020 per ounce after volatile trading throughout late October. The precious metal faces a critical juncture as multiple factors converge: reduced safe-haven demand from improving US-China trade relations, widely anticipated Fed rate cuts supporting non-yielding assets, and key central bank meetings from both the BOJ and ECB. While short-term technical indicators suggest potential for further consolidation between $3,900-$4,100, the long-term outlook remains constructive given persistent central bank accumulation, elevated geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations of continued monetary easing from major economies.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar is experiencing its strongest performance in three weeks, driven primarily by unexpectedly hot inflation data that has crushed near-term RBA rate cut expectations. The quarterly CPI jumping to 3.2% (from 2.1%) and trimmed mean inflation surging to 3.0% has prompted a hawkish reassessment of RBA policy, with markets now pricing in less than a 10% chance of a November rate cut. This stands in stark contrast to the dovish Federal Reserve, which delivered its second consecutive 25 basis point cut, creating favorable interest rate differentials for the AUD.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at its October meeting on 29–30 September 2025, marking a second consecutive pause after August’s 25 basis point cut. The move affirms the Bank’s data-dependent approach as inflation trends within the target range.
• Inflation indicators remained stable through September, with headline CPI likely anchoring near 2.2%—comfortably within the 2–3% band. Insurance and housing costs remain sticky but are increasingly offset by moderation in discretionary goods.
• Trimmed mean inflation is estimated at around 2.8%, signaling underlying pressures remain contained. The Board continues to flag food and energy price volatility as short-term risks, though the broader disinflation narrative holds.
• Global conditions remain a source of uncertainty. U.S. policy expectations and uneven growth in China continue to weigh on commodities, even as trade disruptions have eased marginally since mid-year.
• Domestic growth shows resilience in the housing and services sectors, though manufacturing remains subdued. Household incomes have stabilized, but consumption remains only modest, capped by high borrowing costs.
• The labor market maintains relative tightness, though job growth has slowed notably since the first half of the year. Underutilization has ticked higher, but overall employment conditions remain supportive.
• Wage growth is plateauing, reflecting softer labor demand. Weak productivity continues to keep unit labor costs elevated, underscoring a medium-term concern highlighted repeatedly by the RBA.
• Household consumption prospects remain fragile. The combination of high rents and weak discretionary appetite suggests risks of a consumer-led slowdown in Q4 if confidence fails to rebound.
• The Board reiterated that subdued household spending poses risks to business sentiment and may dampen investment and job creation in the coming quarters.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive. The RBA balanced confidence in inflation progress with caution around global and domestic demand risks, keeping further adjustments conditional on incoming data.
• The Bank reaffirmed its dual commitment to price stability and full employment, noting its readiness to act should conditions shift markedly.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar is supported by optimism surrounding potential US-China trade de-escalation ahead of today’s Trump-Xi meeting and expectations of further Fed rate cuts. However, gains remain capped by domestic economic weakness, recent aggressive RBNZ easing, and elevated inflation. The Kiwi faces critical technical resistance around 0.5800, with near-term direction likely determined by the outcomes of both the Fed meeting and the Trump-Xi summit.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025, exceeding market expectations for a smaller 25-basis-point reduction and signaling a stronger commitment to reviving growth.
• The decision was reached by consensus, marking a shift from previous split votes, and reflected policymakers’ shared view that sustained economic weakness and persistent disinflationary pressures required a more front-loaded policy response.
• Annual consumer price inflation stood at 2.7% in the June quarter and is seen nearing 3% for the September quarter—above the 2% midpoint but within the 1–3% target range. Despite high near-term readings, the MPC projects inflation will return toward 2% by the first half of 2026 as spare capacity and moderating tradables curb price momentum.
• Policymakers acknowledged that domestic demand remains weak, with household spending, business investment, and construction activity under pressure. While still elevated, services inflation is expected to ease gradually as wage growth slows and unemployment edges higher.
• Financial conditions have eased with expectations as wholesale and retail borrowing rates adjust to lower policy settings. Bank lending data indicate a modest uptick in mortgage approvals, though broader credit demand remains subdued.
• GDP growth stalled in the middle of 2025, with high-frequency indicators showing continued weakness into the third quarter. A combination of elevated costs for essentials and falling savings continues to restrain household consumption, while global trade frictions weigh on business sentiment.
• The MPC noted that global uncertainty—particularly from US trade regulation changes and soft Chinese demand—continues to pose downside risks to export sectors, though these are partly offset by a weaker New Zealand dollar improving competitiveness.
• Subject to data confirming a sustained soft patch in activity and moderating inflation pressures, the MPC signaled further scope to reduce the OCR toward 2.25% at its next meeting on 26 November 2025, consistent with current market and Westpac forecasts.
• The next meeting is on 26 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

BOJ policy rate (Tentative)

Monetary policy statement (Tentative)

BOJ outlook report (Tentative)

BOJ press conference (Tentative)

Tokyo core CPI y/y (11:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen strengthened ahead of the BOJ’s policy decision, driven by several key factors: US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s public pressure on Japan to allow BOJ policy independence; political clarity as Prime Minister Takaichi adopted a more neutral stance on monetary policy despite her stimulus-oriented fiscal plans; and inflation data remaining persistently above the BOJ’s 2% target at 2.9%. While the BOJ is expected to hold rates at 0.5% on October 30, growing hawkish sentiment within the policy board—evidenced by two dissenting votes in September—signals that a rate hike could come as soon as December 2025.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices climbed modestly as a much-larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories temporarily relieved oversupply concerns that had dominated recent weeks. The market remains cautious, with supply expected to exceed demand for the coming months, and geopolitical risks—particularly sanctions on Russia—adding uncertainty to global oil flows.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 October 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.56%, Shanghai Composite up 0.06%, Hang Seng up 0.54% ASX down -0.31%
• Commodities : Gold at $3,948.25 (-1.31%), Silver at $47.385 (-1.10%), Brent Oil at $64.19 (-0.20%), WTI Oil at $60.31 (-0.28%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.074, UK 10-year yield at 4.3930, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6186

News & Data:

• (CAD) Overnight Rate  2.25%  to 2.25% expected
• (USD) Federal Funds Rate  4.00%  to 4.00% expected

Markets Update:

Asian markets traded mostly higher on Thursday, buoyed by optimism over a possible U.S.-China trade deal as Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met, and as traders reacted to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate cut. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks cast doubt on another rate cut in December, saying it was “far from a foregone conclusion.” Powell noted divisions among Fed members and cited uncertainty due to the government shutdown delaying key data. Following his comments, CME FedWatch showed the probability of unchanged rates in December rising to 34.1 percent from 9.1 percent.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.15 percent to 8,913.10, weighed by tech losses despite gains in miners and banks. Fortescue and Mineral Resources rose sharply, while tech firms like Block and Appen declined.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.17 percent to 51,396.85 in choppy trade, supported by tech and banking stocks. Lasertec soared over 20 percent, while SoftBank and Fast Retailing dropped more than 2 percent.

Elsewhere, South Korea gained 1.2 percent, while China, Hong Kong, and Singapore posted smaller advances.

On Wall Street, the Nasdaq hit a record high, rising 0.6 percent, while the Dow and S&P 500 ended mixed. European markets also closed mixed, and oil prices rose after U.S. crude inventories fell sharply.

Upcoming Events: 

• 01:15 PM GMT – EUR Main Refinancing Rate

The post Thursday 30th October 2025: Asian Markets Rise on Trade Optimism Despite Fed Rate Cut Uncertainty first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 October 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Today’s Asia session saw cautious but active market conditions driven by central bank announcements, key inflation data from Japan, and anticipation of major geopolitical meetings (U.S.-China, U.S.-Korea). The U.S. dollar gained on hawkish Fed language, the Japanese Yen traded near a multi-month low with high event risk, and Asian equities were mixed, but the Kospi surged on trade optimism. Oil and commodity prices held firm, with all eyes on upcoming diplomatic developments and policy signals for direction into the European session.​

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Today’s markets are starting with a cautiously bullish tone, shaped by recent central bank meetings, major economic data releases, and shifting sentiment in both stocks and currencies. Traders in the European and U.S. sessions should focus on central bank policy statements, critical macro indicators, and high-impact earnings reports as these are driving cross-asset volatility.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar strengthened modestly on Thursday, October 30, 2025, following Fed Chair Powell’s cautionary remarks that a December rate cut is “far from” certain despite Wednesday’s 25 basis point reduction to 3.75%-4.00%. The DXY traded around 99.09, with EUR/USD at 1.1604 and USD/JPY near 152.63. The BoJ is expected to hold rates at 0.5%, and the ECB is anticipated to keep rates unchanged at 2.15%. Powell’s divided committee (10-2 vote) and emphasis on competing inflation and employment risks signal a more cautious Fed approach ahead, supporting dollar strength in the near term.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices are staging a modest recovery above $4,000 per ounce following the Federal Reserve’s expected 25 basis point rate cut. However, upside momentum remains limited as progress toward a US-China trade agreement has reduced safe-haven demand. The precious metal recently pulled back from its October 20 record high of $4,381, experiencing its first weekly loss in ten weeks amid profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

German prelim CPI m/m (8:00 am GMT)

Spanish flash CPI y/y (8:00 am GMT)

German prelim GDP q/q (9:00 am GMT)

Main refinancing rate (1:15 pm GMT)

Monetary policy statement (1:15 pm GMT)

ECB press conference (1:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

ECB’s widely anticipated decision to hold rates steady for a third consecutive meeting. The euro strengthened modestly against the dollar, trading at 1.1616, as markets digested the ECB’s commitment to its current “good place” policy stance. While inflation remains near the 2% target and has shown signs of stabilization, the eurozone faces significant challenges from France’s deepening fiscal and political crisis, Germany’s modest growth prospects despite fiscal stimulus, and ongoing trade tensions with the United States and China..

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its meeting on 30 October 2025. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility in the face of uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, aided by stable banking sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc faces near-term weakening pressure on October 30 as improved global risk sentiment from US-China trade optimism weighs on safe-haven demand. The SNB’s commitment to keeping rates at 0% with no deflation risks, combined with rebounding investor sentiment from deeply negative levels, provides some stability. However, Switzerland’s slowing economic growth outlook (1-1.5% in 2025, under 1% in 2026) amid US tariff headwinds and the franc’s significant year-to-date strength suggest limited upside. Key catalysts today include the ECB rate decision (expected hold at 2%) and the outcome of Trump-Xi trade talks at APEC.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound faces a challenging environment characterized by heightened budget uncertainty, expectations for accelerated BoE rate cuts, falling gilt yields, and a resilient US dollar. The combination of a potential £20+ billion fiscal shortfall, productivity downgrades, and anticipated tax increases has created a perfect storm for sterling weakness. While easing shop price inflation and resilient retail sales provide some positive economic signals, they have been insufficient to offset fiscal and monetary policy concerns. The pound is likely to remain under pressure until the November 26 budget provides clarity on the government’s fiscal strategy and the BoE’s November 6 meeting reveals the central bank’s policy trajectory.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted on 18 September 2025 by a majority (expected split likely 7–2 or 6–3) to hold the Bank Rate steady at 4.00%, following the rate cut in August. Most members cited persistent inflation and mixed indicators on growth and employment, while a minority favored further easing due to the cooling labor market and subdued GDP growth.
• The Committee decided to decrease the pace of quantitative tightening, planning to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases by £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, instead of the prior £100 billion pace, with the gilt balance now standing at nearly £558 billion. This reflects increased volatility in bond markets and a shift to a more gradual approach.
• Headline inflation rose unexpectedly to 3.8% in July and is projected at 4% for September, above the Bank’s 2% target. Price pressures are driven by regulated energy costs and ongoing food price increases. While previous disinflation has been substantial, core inflation remains elevated and sticky.
• The MPC expects headline inflation to remain above target through Q4, with a resumption of the downward trend projected for early 2026 as energy and regulated price pressures abate. The Committee remains watchful for signs of persistent inflation despite previous policy tightening.
• UK GDP growth is stagnant, with business and consumer activity subdued. Recent labor market data show rising unemployment rates (now at 4.7%) and stabilizing wage growth (holding near 5%), indicating slack but continued wage price pressure. The Committee remains cautious amid lackluster demand and soft survey sentiment.
• Pay growth and employment indicators have moderated further, alongside confirmation from business surveys that pay settlements are slowing. The Committee expects wage growth to decelerate significantly through Q4 and the rest of 2025.
• Global uncertainty persists due to volatile energy prices, supply chain disruptions linked to Middle East conflicts, and renewed trade tensions. The MPC remains vigilant in tracking transmission of external cost/wage shocks to UK inflation.
• Risks to inflation are considered two-sided. While subdued domestic growth and softening labor activity suggest scope for easing, persistent inflation requires caution. The MPC anticipates a slow, gradual reduction path in rates, continuing its data-dependent approach with careful adjustment as warranted by economic developments.
• The Committee’s bias remains toward maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance until firmer evidence emerges that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target. All future decisions will remain highly data dependent, with a strong emphasis on evolving demand, inflation expectations, costs, and labor market conditions.
• The next meeting is on 6 November 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bearish 

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar strengthened following the Bank of Canada’s surprise hawkish guidance that the current 2.25% policy rate is likely appropriate, effectively signaling an end to the easing cycle. The loonie traded near 1.3889 per USD, its strongest level in four weeks. However, significant headwinds remain: inflation at 2.4% exceeds the central bank’s target, GDP growth is tracking around 0.8% in Q3, unemployment sits at a multi-year high of 7.1%, and US trade uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook. Oil prices near $60 per barrel provide only modest support. While the September employment surprise (60,400 jobs) offered encouragement, underlying labor market weakness persists with elevated youth unemployment and underemployment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to cap overall resale volumes, leading to only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. The increase was driven by higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major new event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets are characterized by cautious optimism as WTI trades near $60 and Brent near $65 per barrel. The week’s major developments include an unexpectedly large 6.86-million-barrel draw in US crude inventories that challenged oversupply concerns, new US sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil creating supply uncertainty, India’s adjustment of Russian crude purchases in response to sanctions, ongoing US-China trade negotiations that could ease economic tensions, and the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut providing modest support.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 October 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to providing the best trading experience to our clients, we want to inform you there will be an adjustment in the trading schedule due to the US exiting Daylight Saving on Sunday, 02 November 2025.

While trading, most products will remain unaffected; however, there will be a change in the trading hours of some products.

MT4/5:

Indices:

Soft Commodities Futures:

Bonds:

Shares:

For any further assistance, please contact our Support Team.

Kind regards,

IC Markets Team

The post US Daylight Saving: Trading Schedule 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 30/10/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Drive Higher Ahead of Fed – Nasdaq up 0.8%

US stock markets hit record levels in trading again yesterday ahead of a highly anticipated rate cut later today and improving trade news between China and the US. The Dow pushed up 0.34% to 47,706, the S&P 0.23% to 6,890, and the Nasdaq jumped 0.80% to 23,827. FX and bond markets were more muted, the DXY drifting 0.05% lower to 98.73, while US 2-year yields added 0.8 of a basis point to move up to 3.490%, and the benchmark 10-year dropped just 0.4 of a basis point to 3.976%. Oil prices fell again as the market priced in production increases from OPEC+, Brent down 1.89% to $60.15, and WTI off 1.75% to $64.47 a barrel. Gold continued its recent drop, losing 0.75% on the day to close out the NY session at $3,951.11 an ounce.

FOMC Meeting in Focus for Traders Today

Traders are eagerly awaiting today’s key update from the Federal Reserve Bank later today, with the market now pricing in a 99.9% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut. Clearly, it would be a huge surprise to the market if this did not occur, and we would see massive moves across financial products. However, the likelihood is that we will see moves on the back of the FOMC statement and consequent press conference. The risk does seem to sit with a less dovish committee, with the market looking for another rate cut in December and more in 2026 following last week’s CPI data. The Fed has clearly been focusing on the failing jobs market, but it does have a dual mandate that includes inflation, and despite last week’s slightly lower print, CPI levels are still above where the Fed would like to see them in a rate-easing cycle. Any indications of hesitation for future cuts, from either the inflation risk or the fact that we are unlikely to have data next month, could see some sharp corrections in easing expectations and some big moves in the market, with the dollar and yields likely to jump and equity markets take a hit.

Huge Day Ahead for Markets

The macroeconomic calendar kicks into action today as some key data and central bank rate calls look set to lift volatility. Australian markets have already seen RBA rate-cut expectations pull back sharply after the CPI data came in well above expectations (3.5% y/y vs exp. 3.1% y/y). Focus will jump across the Tasman to New Zealand later in the day, with RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkseby scheduled to speak in Auckland. There is little scheduled in the European session; however, the New York day could see some huge moves. The initial focus will be north of the border in Ottawa, where the Bank of Canada is expected to deliver another 25-basis point rate cut as they continue to battle the falling jobs market. Focus will then shift firmly to US markets, with Pending Home Sales (exp. +1.6% m/m) and Weekly Crude Oil Inventory (exp. -0.9 mio barrels) due out before a few hours’ wait for the key interest rate update from the Federal Reserve Bank.

The post General Market Analysis – 29/10/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.