The post Ex-Dividend 6/5/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.04%, Shanghai Composite down 0.2%, Hang Seng up 1.72% ASX down 0.82%
• Commodities : Gold at $3265.35 (0.69%), Silver at $32.58 (0.49%), Brent Oil at $69.38 (-3.5%), WTI Oil at $56.10 -3.49%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.316, UK 10-year yield at 4.500, Germany 10-year yield at 2.5200

News & Data:

• (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m  0.2%  to 0.3%  expected
• (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change  177K  to 138K  expected
• (USD) Unemployment Rate  4.2%  to 4.2%  expected

Markets Update:

Australian stocks slipped on Monday following Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s re-election, making him the first leader in 21 years to win a second consecutive term. The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.84% in late trading, reversing earlier gains that had taken it to its highest level since late February. The market’s reaction suggests cautious investor sentiment despite the political continuity. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar appreciated 0.33% to 0.6462 against the U.S. dollar.

Most major Asian markets, including Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and mainland China, remained closed for public holidays. However, Taiwan’s Taiex index edged down 0.72% during choppy trade, even as its currency, the New Taiwanese dollar, surged 3.16% to 29.738—its strongest level in nearly three years. The offshore Chinese yuan also rose slightly to 7.2049 against the greenback, reaching its highest value since November 2024.

In India, both the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex saw early gains, rising 0.66% and 0.57%, respectively. Stocks linked to billionaire Gautam Adani rallied sharply after Bloomberg reported that his representatives met with officials from former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to discuss dropping criminal bribery charges. Adani Enterprises surged 4.66%, with other group companies like Adani Ports, Power, Green, and Energy seeing gains between 3.38% and 4.22%.

Elsewhere, Indonesia’s economy grew by 4.87% year-on-year in Q1, its slowest pace since late 2021 and below analyst expectations. Oil prices dropped sharply after OPEC+ decided to increase production for a second straight month—Brent crude fell 3.59% to $59.09, and WTI dropped 3.89% to $56.02. In the U.S., futures edged down after Wall Street posted strong gains Friday. The S&P 500 rose 1.47%, marking its ninth consecutive advance—the longest streak since 2004—while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq also closed significantly higher.

Upcoming Events: 

• 02:00 PM GMT – USD ISM Services PMI

The post Monday 5th May 2025: Global Markets Mixed as Albanese Wins Second Term first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 5 May 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

Major regional markets, including Japan, China, Hong Kong, and South Korea, were closed for their respective public holidays, leading to thin trading volumes in the region. Amidst easing trade tensions and positive earnings reports, Asian markets opened with cautious optimism – the dollar index (DXY) was hovering above 99.50 while spot prices for gold stabilized around $3,240/oz.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

U.K. banks will be closed in observance of May Day, with the pound likely to experience lower liquidity during the European trading hours. With no domestic catalysts on Monday, direction will be determined by dollar flows and broader market sentiment.

Demand for the franc remained relatively strong ahead of Swiss inflation data. Consumer inflation is expected to tick up to 0.2% MoM, which could provide marginal support for the franc if confirmed. This currency could strengthen if risk appetite deteriorates, triggering another round of safe-haven flows.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ISM Services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Today’s ISM Services PMI report will be critical – the sector has shown resilience but remains vulnerable to slowing due to the global tariff uncertainties. Recent PMIs have stabilised near the 50 threshold, with little momentum. A print below 50 could reinforce dovish expectations by the Federal Reserve ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, while upside surprise may provide temporary support.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ISM Services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold has stabilised near $3,180/oz after last week’s volatility. Multiple market holidays across Asia have limited flows, but this precious metal remains well-supported despite risk appetite improvement. ISM services data will drive direction – a weak print could reinforce easing expectations by the Federal Reserve and support gold prices this week.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie edged toward 0.6500 at the beginning of the Asia session, supported by resilient job ads and moderating inflation. With domestic catalysts on Monday, this currency pair will primarily be swayed by the U.S. ISM Services PMI report due later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi was rising strongly toward the threshold of 0.6000 as Asian markets came online. With no major catalyst on Monday, direction will be primarily driven by U.S. services data and broader risk sentiment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Constitution Day and Greenery Day (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japanese banks will be closed in observance of Constitution Day and Greenery Day on Monday, with the yen facing lower liquidity during the Asia session. Direction will be determined by U.S. ISM Services PMI data and Treasury yields – USD/JPY was sliding toward 144 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 1 May, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economic growth is likely to moderate, as trade and other policies in each jurisdiction lead to a slowdown in overseas economies and to a decline in domestic corporate profits and other factors, although factors such as accommodative financial conditions are expected to provide support. Thereafter, Japan’s economic growth rate is likely to rise, with overseas economies returning to a moderate growth path.
• The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) is likely to be in the range of 2.0-2.5% for fiscal 2025, in the range of 1.5-2.0% for fiscal 2026, and at around 2% for fiscal 2027. The effects of the past rise in import prices and of the recent rise in food prices such as rice prices – these factors have pushed up the inflation rate so far – are expected to wane.
• Meanwhile, underlying CPI inflation is likely to be sluggish, mainly due to the deceleration in the economy. Thereafter, however, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually.
• Regarding the employment and income situation, despite the deceleration in the economy, labour market conditions are likely to remain tight, as it will become more difficult for labour supply of women and seniors to increase.
• Comparing the projections through fiscal 2026 with those presented in the previous Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), the projected real GDP growth rate for fiscal 2024 is somewhat higher, but the projected growth rates for fiscal 2025 and 2026 are lower due to the effects of trade and other policies in each jurisdiction.
• There are various risks to the outlook. In particular, it is extremely uncertain how trade and other policies in each jurisdiction will evolve and how overseas economic activity and prices will react to them. It is therefore necessary to pay due attention to the impact of these developments on financial and foreign exchange markets and on Japan’s economic activity and prices.
• With regard to the risk balance, risks to economic activity are skewed to the downside for fiscal 2025 and 2026. Risks to prices are also skewed to the downside for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 17 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro remained elevated last week, finding support from an improved Sentix sentiment. Eurozone investor confidence, while still negative, shows improvement from last month’s pessimism. U.S. services data will drive direction in the latter part of Monday, with this currency pair likely to find bids if the ISM report disappoints.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 April to mark the sixth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.40%, 2.65% and 2.25% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track with both headline and core inflation declining in March while services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.
• Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• In particular, the Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 5 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

CPI (6:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for the franc remained relatively strong ahead of Swiss inflation data. Consumer inflation is expected to tick up to 0.2% MoM, which could provide marginal support for the franc if confirmed. This currency could strengthen if risk appetite deteriorates, triggering another round of safe-haven flows.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

May Day (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from GBP today?

U.K. banks will be closed in observance of May Day, with the pound likely to experience lower liquidity during the European trading hours. With no domestic catalysts on Monday, direction will be determined by dollar flows and broader market sentiment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

With no Canadian data today, the Loonie will take direction from broader U.S. dollar flows and oil prices. U.S. ISM Services PMI data will drive volatility later today, with the Canadian dollar vulnerable to weakness if ISM surprises to the upside.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope – Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices slumped at Monday’s open as OPEC+ signalled that it will further increase production over the weekend in the coming months, raising concerns about a potential supply glut. WTI oil gapped lower, tumbling over 5% as prices dived under $56 per barrel. Coupled with weaker global demand, this commodity continues to face strong overhead pressures.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 5 May 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Markets Rally After Strong Jobs Numbers – S&P up 1.5%

US stocks rallied well on Friday after non-farm payrolls data came in stronger than expected, easing growth concerns. The Dow added 1.39% on the day, the S&P 1.47%, and the Nasdaq finished up 1.51%. Treasury yields surged as traders pushed back Fed rate cut expectations to July, with the 2-year up 12.5 basis points to 3.824% and the 10-year up 9.1 basis points to 4.308%, whilst the dollar drifted, the DXY down 0.15% to 100.03. Oil prices fell to close out a tough week, down nearly 8%. Brent dropped 1.35% on the day to close at $61.29, and WTI fell 1.60% to $58.29. Gold traded in relatively tight ranges, ultimately finishing the day up just 0.06% at $3,240.08.

Jobs Numbers Push Fed Cuts Out

Friday’s strong employment data out of the US has pushed Federal Reserve rate cut expectations out further, as they confirmed that despite growth concerns due to tariffs, US employers are still adding to staffing numbers. It is only a couple of days until the conclusion of the next Fed meeting, and those (including certain high-profile people in office) will be disappointed that we are very unlikely to see any move this month—currently just a 3% chance of a cut. However, there is still the possibility that we see something in June, with a 35% chance of a cut currently priced in, whilst July looks most likely for the next move with those odds up to 55%. There is still a lot of water to come under the bridge before those meetings, and investors will now be looking at the message we get from Jerome Powell on Wednesday with regard to the FOMC’s thoughts, which could push markets hard one way or the other.

Holiday-Thinned Markets to Kick Off the Trading Week

Liquidity could once again be a bit of an issue in the first trading day of the week today, with some key financial centers having long weekends. The Asian session sees Japanese markets closed for both today and tomorrow, which will take a percentage of liquidity from the market—especially in the yen, which has been volatile in the last few days. And whilst there is no data scheduled for release, traders are expecting to see good moves after Friday’s data in the US. The London session will see the focus on Swiss markets, with key CPI data (exp. +0.2% m/m) due for release early in the session. However, liquidity will again be under question with UK markets closed for a bank holiday. The New York session has key US ISM Services PMI data out (exp. 50.2), with investors hoping for a good number to back up Friday’s jobs update.

The post General Market Analysis – 05/05/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support. Additionally, the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

Pivot: 100.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 97.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 101.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. Additionally, the price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

Pivot: 1.1201

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

 1st support: 1.0954
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1573

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support

Pivot: 164.55

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 160.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 166.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 0.8445

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8348
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8626
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance. Additionally, the price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

Pivot: 1.3113

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 1.2771
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3443
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 189.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 186.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 194.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8399

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. Additionally, the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 0.8194
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8632
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 147.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. Additionally, the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 142.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 151.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3946

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.3781
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4093
Supporting reasons: Identified asan overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6560
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6328

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6680
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6050
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5914

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6257

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 40,856.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 39,200.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 42,609.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 22,416.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 21,505.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,474.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,532.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 5,285.35

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,796.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 94,101.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 88,147.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 101,637.89
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,069.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1,473.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,539.51
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 57.62

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 53.54
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 61.98
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3288.12
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 3148.98
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3500
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 5th May 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 5 May 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. economy added 177k jobs in April, significantly surpassing market expectations of 130k, following a robust gain of 185k in the previous month. Non-farm payrolls (NFPs) have rebounded relatively strongly over the last couple of months despite growing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. Job growth was seen in categories such as health care, transportation and warehousing, and financial activities, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The dollar index (DXY) initially jumped above the threshold of 100 before falling to a low of 99.40 on Friday. However, demand returned towards the end of the trading day as this index climbed above this threshold once more.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

With overall sentiment receiving a boost Friday after a robust NFP figure which indicated resilience in the labour market, volatility is fading as confidence returns. Japanese banks will be closed in observance of Constitution Day and Greenery Day on Monday, with the yen facing lower liquidity during the Asia session. Direction will be determined by U.S. ISM Services PMI data and Treasury yields – USD/JPY was sliding toward 144 as Asian markets came online.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ISM Services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Today’s ISM Services PMI report will be critical – the sector has shown resilience but remains vulnerable to slowing due to the global tariff uncertainties. Recent PMIs have stabilised near the 50 threshold, with little momentum. A print below 50 could reinforce dovish expectations by the Federal Reserve ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, while upside surprise may provide temporary support.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ISM Services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold has stabilised near $3,180/oz after last week’s volatility. Multiple market holidays across Asia have limited flows, but this previous metal remains well-supported despite risk appetite improvement. ISM services data will drive direction – a weak print could reinforce easing expectations by the Federal Reserve and support gold prices this week.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie edged toward 0.6500 at the beginning of the Asia session, supported by resilient job ads and moderating inflation. With domestic catalysts on Monday, this currency pair will primarily be swayed by the U.S. ISM Services PMI report due later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi was rising strongly toward the threshold of 0.6000 as Asian markets came online. With no major catalyst on Monday, direction will be primarily driven by U.S. services data and broader risk sentiment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Constitution Day and Greenery Day (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japanese banks will be closed in observance of Constitution Day and Greenery Day on Monday, with the yen facing lower liquidity during the Asia session. Direction will be determined by U.S. ISM Services PMI data and Treasury yields – USD/JPY was sliding toward 144 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 1 May, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economic growth is likely to moderate, as trade and other policies in each jurisdiction lead to a slowdown in overseas economies and to a decline in domestic corporate profits and other factors, although factors such as accommodative financial conditions are expected to provide support. Thereafter, Japan’s economic growth rate is likely to rise, with overseas economies returning to a moderate growth path.
• The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) is likely to be in the range of 2.0-2.5% for fiscal 2025, in the range of 1.5-2.0% for fiscal 2026, and at around 2% for fiscal 2027. The effects of the past rise in import prices and of the recent rise in food prices such as rice prices – these factors have pushed up the inflation rate so far – are expected to wane.
• Meanwhile, underlying CPI inflation is likely to be sluggish, mainly due to the deceleration in the economy. Thereafter, however, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually.
• Regarding the employment and income situation, despite the deceleration in the economy, labour market conditions are likely to remain tight, as it will become more difficult for labour supply of women and seniors to increase.
• Comparing the projections through fiscal 2026 with those presented in the previous Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), the projected real GDP growth rate for fiscal 2024 is somewhat higher, but the projected growth rates for fiscal 2025 and 2026 are lower due to the effects of trade and other policies in each jurisdiction.
• There are various risks to the outlook. In particular, it is extremely uncertain how trade and other policies in each jurisdiction will evolve and how overseas economic activity and prices will react to them. It is therefore necessary to pay due attention to the impact of these developments on financial and foreign exchange markets and on Japan’s economic activity and prices.
• With regard to the risk balance, risks to economic activity are skewed to the downside for fiscal 2025 and 2026. Risks to prices are also skewed to the downside for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 17 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro remained elevated last week, finding support from an improved Sentix sentiment. Eurozone investor confidence, while still negative, shows improvement from last month’s pessimism. U.S. services data will drive direction in the latter part of Monday, with this currency pair likely to find bids if the ISM report disappoints.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 April to mark the sixth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.40%, 2.65% and 2.25% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track with both headline and core inflation declining in March while services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.
• Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• In particular, the Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 5 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

CPI (6:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for the franc remained relatively strong ahead of Swiss inflation data. Consumer inflation is expected to tick up to 0.2% MoM, which could provide marginal support for the franc if confirmed. This currency could strengthen if risk appetite deteriorates, triggering another round of safe-haven flows.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

May Day (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from GBP today?

U.K. banks will be closed in observance of May Day, with the pound likely to experience lower liquidity during the European trading hours. With no domestic catalysts on Monday, direction will be determined by dollar flows and broader market sentiment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

With no Canadian data today, the Loonie will take direction from broader U.S. dollar flows and oil prices. U.S. ISM Services PMI data will drive volatility later today, with the Canadian dollar vulnerable to weakness if ISM surprises to the upside.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope – Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices slumped at Monday’s open as OPEC+ signalled that it will further increase production over the weekend in the coming months, raising concerns about a potential supply glut. WTI oil gapped lower, tumbling over 5% as prices dived under $56 per barrel. Coupled with weaker global demand, this commodity continues to face strong overhead pressures.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 5 May 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global financial markets enjoyed a more buoyant week last week as investors started to see some more silver lining to trade updates, and data remained relatively strong. Key U.S. employment numbers out at the end of the week came in better than expected, which helped Wall Street to close the week on a high.

The week ahead has a big central bank focus, with both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England due to update the market on their latest calls, as well as several central bankers scheduled to speak. Once again, trade and tariff updates will not be far from traders’ minds, but we could see smoother conditions if details on negotiations start to hit the media.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

Another holiday-influenced start to the week, with some major centres enjoying long weekends. However, we do have some key data releases as well, with the Swiss CPI numbers due out in the European session and the U.S. ISM Services PMI data scheduled for release early in the New York day.

Tuesday looks set to be a quiet day in calendar terms, with very little in the way of Tier 1 data to move the dial across all three trading sessions. We do hear from Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel during the London day, and the Ivey PMI numbers are due out in Canada, but overall expect sentiment to dominate flows.

It’s a busier day on Wednesday, with the calendar kicking off early in the Asian session with New Zealand employment data due out soon after the open. We also hear from RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby later in the day. UK Construction PMI data is out early in the London session, but then it is a long wait for what will probably be the major event of the week, when the Federal Reserve Bank updates the market on its latest rate decision.

It is another quiet calendar day in the Asian session, with little on the cards in the first trading session. However, the focus will be fully on UK markets at the European open, with the Bank of England expected to deliver another interest rate cut. The New York open sees the usual U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims numbers released, but that is all for the session.

The Asian session once again has little of importance on the schedule, but we hear from a plethora of central bank speakers as the day progresses. The main focus for the London session will be when we hear from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, but then later in the day, once New York opens, we are set to hear from a raft of Fed speakers, including Kugler, Goolsbee, Waller, Williams, Cook, Hammack, and Musalem. However, the initial focus for that session will be north of the border when Canadian employment numbers are released shortly after the open.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 6 May 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 5/5/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.28%, Shanghai Composite down 0.2%, Hang Seng up 1.62% ASX up 1.02%
• Commodities : Gold at $3262.35 (1.19%), Silver at $32.58 (1.49%), Brent Oil at $62.38 (0.5%), WTI Oil at $59.10 (0.49%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.230, UK 10-year yield at 4.4848, Germany 10-year yield at 2.4447

News & Data:

• (USD) Unemployment Claims  241K  to 221K  expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets advanced following China’s announcement that it is evaluating potential trade talks with the U.S., boosting investor sentiment. The positive momentum also mirrored Wall Street’s overnight gains, driven by optimism that a global economic slowdown may not hinder the progress of artificial intelligence.

Leading the regional rally, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.74%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index surged 3.45%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.87%, and the broader Topix gained 0.3%. In South Korea, the Kospi inched up 0.19%, and the tech-heavy Kosdaq climbed 0.76%. India’s Nifty 50 edged up 0.46%, although the BSE Sensex was relatively flat in early trading. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 also joined the uptrend, increasing by 0.94%. Meanwhile, China’s mainland markets remained closed for the Labor Day holiday.

U.S. stock futures ticked higher as investors welcomed news of China’s potential re-engagement in trade talks. Wall Street had a strong session, driven by upbeat earnings from tech giants Meta Platforms and Microsoft—two of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks. Their results helped ease worries about a slowdown in AI-related developments amidst ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 83.60 points (0.21%) to close at 40,752.96. The S&P 500 gained 0.63% to settle at 5,604.14, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.52% to finish at 17,710.74, erasing losses accumulated since early April. Investors are now closely watching economic indicators and corporate earnings for further direction.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Non-Farm Employment Change
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Rate

The post Friday 2nd May 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Climb on China-U.S. Trade Hopes and Wall Street Tech Rally first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 2 May 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

Japan’s unemployment rate unexpectedly edged higher from 2.4% in the previous month to 2.5% in March. Although the rate exceeded the forecast of 2.4%, unemployment has remained relatively stable since last August. USD/JPY rose 1.7% on Thursday as it rallied strongly to break above 145 – this currency pair hit 145.90 before pulling back at the beginning of Friday’s Asia session.

Consumer spending in Australia rose at a monthly rate of 0.3% in March, missing the forecast of a 0.4% increase. The latest report marked the third consecutive month of rising sales but highlighted a cautious consumer in light of the ongoing global trade policy uncertainties. The Aussie remained elevated above 0.6400 and it could grind higher on the final trading day of the week.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

With the Swiss franc maintaining its safe-haven appeal despite improved risk sentiment, USD/CHF hovered around 0.8300. Meanwhile, Swiss manufacturing PMI activity is expected to reach the neutral level of 50, up from 49.5, which could offer marginal support to the franc if confirmed. This currency pair will primarily follow U.S. labour data and broader risk appetite on the final trading day of the week, with a potential for strength in the franc if NFPs disappoint.

Euro Area manufacturing PMIs are expected to confirm the sector’s ongoing struggle, with most readings below 50. Despite this, April’s flash PMI reached 48.7, the highest in 27 months, showing improvement even while still in contraction territory. Meanwhile, headline consumer inflation is forecast to ease slightly to an annual rate of 2.1%, while core inflation may tick up to 2.5% in April. With the ECB having cut rates last month, softer inflation could reinforce expectations for further easing, potentially weighing on the Euro – U.S. jobs data will ultimately drive direction as well later today.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

March’s robust 228k job creation significantly exceeded expectations, but economists now forecast a moderation to 138k for April in the latest non-farm payrolls (NFPs)as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, which has risen gradually from 3.9% a year ago. The labour market has remained a bright spot in the U.S. economy, but signs of cooling are emerging with initial claims recently hitting a 9-week high. A softer payrolls print would reinforce rate cut expectations and likely pressure the dollar, while any upside surprise could trigger a short squeeze.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold remains under pressure, with spot prices breaking below $3,220/oz as risk appetite improves and yields stabilised on Thursday. This precious metal has pulled back from recent highs as safe-haven flows moderate with easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Jobs data will be critical – a significant miss in the NFPs could reinvigorate gold bulls by boosting rate cut expectations, while a strong report would likely extend the correction lower.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Consumer spending in Australia rose at a monthly rate of 0.3% in March, missing the forecast of a 0.4% increase. The latest report marked the third consecutive month of rising sales but highlighted a cautious consumer in light of the ongoing global trade policy uncertainties. The Aussie remained elevated above 0.6400 and it should grind higher on the final trading day of the week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi trades around 0.5950, tracking broader USD moves and awaiting US labour data out later today – it has underperformed its Australian counterpart with no domestic catalysts for today. A soft NFP print could see the Kiwi test 0.6000, but this currency pair is likely to remain range-bound ahead of the weekend unless payrolls significantly surprise to the upside.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Rate (11:50 pm GMT 1st May)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japan’s unemployment rate unexpectedly edged higher from 2.4% in the previous month to 2.5% in March. Although the rate exceeded the forecast of 2.4%, unemployment has remained relatively stable since last August. USD/JPY rose 1.7% on Thursday as it rallied strongly to break above 145 – this currency pair hit 145.90 before pulling back at the beginning of Friday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 1 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Manufacturing PMI (8:00 am GMT)

CPI (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Euro Area manufacturing PMIs are expected to confirm the sector’s ongoing struggle, with most readings below 50. Despite this, April’s flash PMI reached 48.7, the highest in 27 months, showing improvement even while still in contraction territory. Meanwhile, headline consumer inflation is forecast to ease slightly to an annual rate of 2.1%, while core inflation may tick up to 2.5% in April. With the ECB having cut rates last month, softer inflation could reinforce expectations for further easing, potentially weighing on the Euro – U.S. jobs data will ultimately drive direction as well later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 April to mark the sixth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.40%, 2.65% and 2.25% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track with both headline and core inflation declining in March while services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.
• Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• In particular, the Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 5 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

Manufacturing PMI (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

With the Swiss franc maintaining its safe-haven appeal despite improved risk sentiment, USD/CHF hovered around 0.8300. Meanwhile, Swiss manufacturing PMI activity is expected to reach the neutral level of 50, up from 49.5, which could offer marginal support to the franc if confirmed. This currency pair will primarily follow U.S. labour data and broader risk appetite on the final trading day of the week, with a potential for strength in the franc if NFPs disappoint.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

After reaching a high of 1.3443 on Tuesday, demand for the pound waned as Cable fell 1.2% before stabilising around 1.3300 overnight. With no domestic catalysts on Friday, this currency pair will take direction entirely from U.S. payrolls data due for release later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Loonie continues to track broader USD flows ahead of the highly anticipated NFPs. Although oil prices have stabilised on Thursday to provide a modest floor for USD/CAD, this currency pair remains primarily sensitive to U.S. economic data. A soft NFP print could see USD/CAD test support around 1.3800.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope – Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

After plummeting over 11% this week, crude oil prices stabilised overnight. WTI oil had dived as low as $56.39 on Thursday before consolidating around $58 per barrel. Oil prices have found a range as supply risks balance against demand concerns but the NFPs will drive broader risk sentiment, which in turn will no doubt impact demand for this commodity.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 2 May 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 100.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 99.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 101.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1310

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. Additionally, the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.1147
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1423

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 163.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 162.48
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.91
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 0.8446

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8377
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8519
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction:  Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3348

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.3206
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3442
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 193.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 191.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 195.98
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8251

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. Additionally, the price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 0.8110
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8372
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.  Additionally, the price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

Pivot: 144.38

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 141.81
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 146.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3781

Supporting reasons:  Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound 

1st support: 1.3750
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3894
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6459
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6342

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st resistance: 0.6523
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5887
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 0.5828

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6019

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 40,673.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 39,297.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 42,740.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 22,521.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 21,523.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,438.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,559.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum. 

1st support: 5,322.68

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,785.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 95,364.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum. 

1st support: 92,463.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 99,293.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1,828.47
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 1,740.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1,947.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 61.83

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 55.83
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 64.55
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3262.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. Additionally, the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 3154.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3357.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Friday 2nd May 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 2 May 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Manufacturing output in the U.S. contracted for the second month in a row as the report by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed PMI activity slipping from 49.00 in the previous month to 48.7 in April. Sub-indices such as new orders and new export orders fell steeply amidst ongoing tariff-related disruptions while manufacturers grappled with rising costs and margin pressure. Ongoing trade uncertainty has disrupted supply chains, caused shipping delays, complex duties, and frequent changes in cost structures. Moving over to labour market data, unemployment claims rose noticeably higher, jumping from 223k in the previous week to 241k in the latest result, the highest reading since February and well above market expectations of 224k. Despite a weak set of macroeconomic data, demand for the greenback remained relatively strong as the dollar index (DXY) gained 0.7% to rise above the key threshold of 100 on Thursday.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Consumer spending in Australia rose at a monthly rate of 0.3% in March, missing the forecast of a 0.4% increase. The latest report marked the third consecutive month of rising sales but highlighted a cautious consumer in light of the ongoing global trade policy uncertainties. The Aussie remained elevated above 0.6400 and it could grind higher on the final trading day of the week.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

March’s robust 228k job creation significantly exceeded expectations, but economists now forecast a moderation to 138k for April in the latest non-farm payrolls (NFPs)as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, which has risen gradually from 3.9% a year ago. The labour market has remained a bright spot in the U.S. economy, but signs of cooling are emerging with initial claims recently hitting a 9-week high. A softer payrolls print would reinforce rate cut expectations and likely pressure the dollar, while any upside surprise could trigger a short squeeze.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold remains under pressure, with spot prices breaking below $3,220/oz as risk appetite improves and yields stabilised on Thursday. This precious metal has pulled back from recent highs as safe-haven flows moderate with easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Jobs data will be critical – a significant miss in the NFPs could reinvigorate gold bulls by boosting rate cut expectations, while a strong report would likely extend the correction lower.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Consumer spending in Australia rose at a monthly rate of 0.3% in March, missing the forecast of a 0.4% increase. The latest report marked the third consecutive month of rising sales but highlighted a cautious consumer in light of the ongoing global trade policy uncertainties. The Aussie remained elevated above 0.6400 and it should grind higher on the final trading day of the week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi trades around 0.5950, tracking broader USD moves and awaiting US labour data out later today – it has underperformed its Australian counterpart with no domestic catalysts for today. A soft NFP print could see the Kiwi test 0.6000, but this currency pair is likely to remain range-bound ahead of the weekend unless payrolls significantly surprise to the upside.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Rate (11:50 pm GMT 1st May)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japan’s unemployment rate unexpectedly edged higher from 2.4% in the previous month to 2.5% in March. Although the rate exceeded the forecast of 2.4%, unemployment has remained relatively stable since last August. USD/JPY rose 1.7% on Thursday as it rallied strongly to break above 145 – this currency pair hit 145.90 before pulling back at the beginning of Friday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 1 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Manufacturing PMI (8:00 am GMT)

CPI (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Euro Area manufacturing PMIs are expected to confirm the sector’s ongoing struggle, with most readings below 50. Despite this, April’s flash PMI reached 48.7, the highest in 27 months, showing improvement even while still in contraction territory. Meanwhile, headline consumer inflation is forecast to ease slightly to an annual rate of 2.1%, while core inflation may tick up to 2.5% in April. With the ECB having cut rates last month, softer inflation could reinforce expectations for further easing, potentially weighing on the Euro – U.S. jobs data will ultimately drive direction as well later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 April to mark the sixth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.40%, 2.65% and 2.25% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track with both headline and core inflation declining in March while services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.
• Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• In particular, the Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 5 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

Manufacturing PMI (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

With the Swiss franc maintaining its safe-haven appeal despite improved risk sentiment, USD/CHF hovered around 0.8300. Meanwhile, Swiss manufacturing PMI activity is expected to reach the neutral level of 50, up from 49.5, which could offer marginal support to the franc if confirmed. This currency pair will primarily follow U.S. labour data and broader risk appetite on the final trading day of the week, with a potential for strength in the franc if NFPs disappoint.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

After reaching a high of 1.3443 on Tuesday, demand for the pound waned as Cable fell 1.2% before stabilising around 1.3300 overnight. With no domestic catalysts on Friday, this currency pair will take direction entirely from U.S. payrolls data due for release later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Loonie continues to track broader USD flows ahead of the highly anticipated NFPs. Although oil prices have stabilised on Thursday to provide a modest floor for USD/CAD, this currency pair remains primarily sensitive to U.S. economic data. A soft NFP print could see USD/CAD test support around 1.3800.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope – Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

After plummeting over 11% this week, crude oil prices stabilised overnight. WTI oil had dived as low as $56.39 on Thursday before consolidating around $58 per barrel. Oil prices have found a range as supply risks balance against demand concerns but the NFPs will drive broader risk sentiment, which in turn will no doubt impact demand for this commodity.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 2 May 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.