IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 08 December 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. markets in the overnight New York session traded in a broadly risk‑on tone, with equities edging higher, the dollar firm but off recent peaks, and rate‑cut expectations remaining the dominant macro driver. Price action was driven more by continued digestion of this week’s inflation and sentiment data than by a single blockbuster release, so moves were directional but not explosive.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Monday opens quietly with focus on China trade figures and Japan sentiment surveys, setting the tone for the week’s central bank actions, like the RBA and upcoming China CPI on Wednesday. Expect moderate volatility in CNY, JPY, and AUD crosses, with traders eyeing global USD flows ahead of the Fed on Wednesday. Position for data surprises, as recent upbeat export forecasts (e.g., +3.3% YoY) could counter slowdown fears.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar is trading on the back foot into Monday, 8 December 2025, with DXY hovering just under 99 after a steady grind lower over the past month as markets lean toward Fed easing in 2026. Price action is orderly rather than capitulation, with EUR/USD supported near the mid‑1.16s and broader FX positioning cautious ahead of key Fed communication this week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressure but still warranting vigilance amid tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold starts Monday, trading above 4,200 per ounce in a bullish but consolidative structure, with intraday projections clustering around a 4,115–4,315 range. The metal is supported by a softer dollar and strong market conviction that the Fed is on the verge of cutting rates, even as traders trim some longs into key US data and next week’s policy decision. Technically, XAUUSD remains in an uptrend but is moving sideways beneath 4,250–4,300 resistance, leaving room for corrective dips within the broader 4,060–4,375 zone that many analysts see as opportunities to re‑enter the prevailing bullish trend.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar is trading with a mildly positive bias into Monday, supported by softer USD sentiment and lingering speculation that the RBA may need to keep policy restrictive for longer, but price action still looks like an extended rally that is vulnerable to corrective pullbacks. Recent AUD/USD trade has been characterised by a steady climb, with the pair rising for multiple consecutive sessions and touching its highest levels since at least October as weaker US data and a softer dollar underpin the move.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

NZD starts the week with a mildly constructive tone after holding above recent lows, but it remains constrained by a still‑stronger US dollar backdrop and a firmly established broader downtrend. With no major New Zealand releases on Monday itself, intraday direction is likely to follow USD moves, global risk appetite, and any surprises from Chinese data, while markets position for later‑week NZ indicators and further guidance on the post‑cut RBNZ path.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen is trading firmer going into Monday, as markets price in a high probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike on 19 December and continue to unwind carry trades built on Japan’s former near‑zero rate regime. USD/JPY has retreated from recent highs around the mid‑155 area after a sharp multi‑month rally, with several analysts treating the latest pullback as evidence that a potential 2025 top may already be in place.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil is trading near recent two‑week highs, with WTI around 60 USD and Brent around 63–64 USD per barrel going into Monday, 8 December 2025, supported by geopolitical risks but capped by a persistent oversupply narrative. The overall tone is still bearish medium term, with analysts warning that a growing glut of crude on the water could pressure prices back toward the mid‑50s for WTI if demand disappoints.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 08 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Push Higher into Weekend – Nasdaq up 0.3%

US markets closed the week on a slightly firmer footing, with all three major indices posting modest gains on Friday after key inflation data came in line with expectations. The Dow added 0.22% to finish at 47,954, the S&P 500 edged up 0.19% to 6,870, and the Nasdaq rose 0.31% to 23,578. The USD Index slipped 0.07% to 98.99, while Treasury yields pushed higher, with the 2-year rising 3.8 bps to 3.560% and the 10-year up 3.7 bps at 4.135%, despite markets maintaining a firm view that the Federal Reserve will cut rates this week. Oil extended its recent advance, with Brent climbing 0.77% to $63.75 and WTI up 0.69% at $60.08 a barrel, supported by expectations of easier Fed policy and ongoing geopolitical concerns involving Russia and Venezuela. Gold ended the session lower, slipping 0.24% to $4,197.78 after an early-session spike as high as $4,250 faded swiftly.

Central Banks in Focus This Week

Central banks are a huge focus for traders this week, with four key developed nations set to update the market on interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve Bank and the Swiss National Bank are all due to announce rate decisions in the coming days. The RBA, the BOC and the SNB are all expected to keep rates on hold, whilst the Fed is strongly priced in for a 25-basis-point rate cut. Even if all does go according to plan in terms of actual rate plays, forward guidance from all four central bank committees is likely to lead to plenty of volatility in markets. We have seen sharp changes in rate move expectations for central banks in recent months as data continues to test markets, and each of this week’s banks have their own unique challenges, which should lead to strong trading opportunities around the rate update events.

Quiet Start to a Huge Week Ahead for Market

The week begins quietly with very little scheduled on today’s macroeconomic calendar. However, activity will accelerate rapidly in the coming days, with multiple central bank decisions and key data releases set to shape market direction as the week progresses. There was very little in terms of geopolitical updates over the weekend to spur markets one way or the other, and we have seen a relatively quiet start to the trading week today. In the Asian session, there is a big data dump due out of Japan today, with final GDP numbers coming out alongside the current account figures, but these are expected to have little impact. The London session also has little on the calendar, although traders will note that Italian markets are on holiday today. It’s similarly quiet in the New York session today as well—very much the calm before the storm later in the week—although sterling traders will pay attention to MPC members Taylor and Lombardelli when they speak later in the day.

The post General Market Analysis – 8/12/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down -0.17%, Shanghai Composite up 0.62%, Hang Seng down -1.12% ASX down -0.31%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,238.90 (-0.12%), Silver at $58.485 (-0.96%), Brent Oil at $63.85 (0.14%), WTI Oil at $60.18 (0.18%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.139, UK 10-year yield at 4.4790, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8001

News & Data:

• (CAD) Employment Change  53.6K  to -1.5K expected
• (CAD) Unemployment Rate  6.5%  to 7.0% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets traded mixed on Monday, despite positive cues from Wall Street, as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision later this week. Traders are optimistic about the possibility of an interest rate cut, while awaiting commentary from Fed officials for signals on the outlook for 2026.

In Australia, shares slipped modestly, reversing Friday’s gains, with the S&P/ASX 200 staying below 8,650. Weakness in gold miners and energy stocks weighed on sentiment, while tech shares also declined. Traders are watching the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on Tuesday, with the central bank expected to hold rates steady after three cuts this year.Major miners and oil stocks traded mostly lower, while banks showed mixed performance.

Japan’s market also edged lower, extending Friday’s losses as the Nikkei fell below 50,450. Losses in financials and technology stocks were partially offset by gains in exporters and automakers. Economic data showed Japan’s GDP contracted 0.6 percent in the third quarter, missing estimates, with annualized growth declining 2.3 percent.Capital expenditure and external demand weakened, while bank lending rose 4.2 percent year-on-year in November.

Other Asian markets were mixed, with modest gains in New Zealand, China, Taiwan and Indonesia, and losses in Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia. On Wall Street, stocks closed higher on Friday, while European markets ended mixed. Crude oil prices also inched higher on geopolitical tensions.

Upcoming Events:

• 11:30 AM GMT – EUR Sentix Investor Confidence

The post Monday 8th December 2025: Asian Markets Mixed Ahead of Major Central Bank Decisions first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 98.62

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 97.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 100.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1654

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 1.1480

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1807

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance. Also, the price is moving within a bullish channel

Pivot: 177.85

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 175.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 182.48
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8744

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 0.8607
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8867
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3394

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 1.3189
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3585
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 204.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 200.61
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 209.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.7875

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7739
Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8084
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 154.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 151.03

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 158.33

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                            

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3916

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3761

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4107

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.6538

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6404

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6681

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.5682

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5584

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5838

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 46,841.88

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 45,668.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,377.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 23,834.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,059.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,635.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 6,505.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,141.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,900.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 94,255.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 80,712.26

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 106,846.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3,203.88

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,725.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,681.97
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 62.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 56.51
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 65.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 4,252.68

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,041.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,379.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 8th December 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

It is a huge week ahead for financial markets this week, with a packed macroeconomic calendar lined up for traders. Last week saw a strong return of US data after the lengthy government shutdown, and updates have kept expectations high for a Federal Reserve rate cut this week, with investor sentiment remaining positive.

It will not be all about the Fed, however, with several other major central banks due to update the market on interest rates, and some key data releases also out over the coming sessions. US data continues to play catch-up, and we also hear from a plethora of central bankers, so traders are expecting another lively week ahead.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It’s a quiet start to the calendar week on Monday, with little on the cards to move markets across all three of the trading sessions and little on the geopolitical front over the weekend to spark moves on the Monday open.

Things heat up quickly on Tuesday, with central banks and data coming thick and fast. The focus in the Asian session will be on Australian markets for the latest rate call from the RBA. Later in the day, traders are expecting moves in the Yen when Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks in London. UK markets will tune in for the BOE’s Monetary Policy Report Hearings before New York opens, and focus turns again to the US job market, with JOLTS Job Openings data due out for both September and October.

It is a huge day for financial markets on Wednesday, with central banks heavily in focus. We hear from new RBNZ Governor Anna Breman early in the Asian session before attention moves north for Chinese PPI and CPI data. The London session sees an update from ECB President Christine Lagarde, but the real action looks set to come after New York opens. The initial focus is north of the border for the Bank of Canada’s rate call, before attention moves swiftly to Washington for the much-anticipated rate decision and update from the Federal Reserve Bank.

Things do not let up on Thursday, with another full calendar day scheduled. Australian markets will be in early focus in the Asian session, with employment data due out midway through the day, before European markets open and we hear the latest rate call from the Swiss National Bank, before focus jumps across the Channel for an update from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. It is a quieter day in the New York session, with just the Weekly Unemployment Claims data due out.

Friday is a much quieter day across all sessions, with the only tier 1 data being the UK GDP numbers early in the European session. However, traders are expecting volatility to remain high given all the updates earlier in the week.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 08 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 08 December 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Asian markets in today’s Asia session traded mixed, with Chinese assets and the yuan supported by a surprise rebound in exports, while Japanese stocks underperformed on softer growth revisions and ongoing positioning for a potential Bank of Japan shift; overall risk tone remained cautious ahead of this week’s Fed and RBA meetings, which helped the dollar stabilise after recent weakness. The instruments most directly impacted were Chinese and Hong Kong equity indices, the onshore and offshore yuan, Japanese equities and the yen, Indian equities, and broader Asia FX that is sensitive to Fed and RBA expectations.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Today sets the stage rather than delivers the main act: data are light but include Eurozone Sentix and German industrial production, which can shape EUR and European equity tone into the FOMC. The main driver remains positioning and narrative around an almost fully priced Fed cut, with oil firms, the dollar softer, and option expiries potentially steering intraday FX flows as European and then US traders step in.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Dollar is starting Monday on the back foot, with DXY hovering just below 99 after two weeks of selling as traders price in a near‑certain Fed rate cut and react to softer US labor, manufacturing and inflation data that have eroded the currency’s yield appeal. EUR, GBP, and key commodity currencies such as AUD, NZD and CAD are holding gains against USD, gold is firmer on the weaker‑Dollar/lower‑rates story, and market commentary frames any near‑term Dollar bounces as corrective within a broader environment of gradual USD softening into this week’s FOMC decision.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted by majority to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading near record highs on Monday, 8 December 2025, supported by a softer US dollar and strong expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this week, with price action still in a broadly bullish structure. Spot gold is around 4,210–4,215 USD/oz in early Monday trade, up roughly 0.3% on the session and about 0.3% higher than Friday’s close.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro is modestly firmer to start the week, supported by softer US yields and stable ECB guidance, with EUR/USD trading in the mid‑1.16s and sentiment cautiously bullish into Wednesday’s Fed decision. Technical and macro outlooks suggest upside attempts toward the 1.17–1.18 area are possible in the early part of the week, but overall, the euro remains in a broader consolidation with risks in both directions around central‑bank events.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, supported by stable banking-sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

Today’s CHF tone is “steady‑firm within range”: spot sits near the middle of a well‑defined 0.79 — 0.81 USD/CHF corridor, with no fresh Swiss data shocks and the main catalysts lying ahead in the Fed and SNB meetings.​

The fundamental backdrop of zero inflation but no rush to ease, plus a structurally strong franc, continues to favor CHF resilience on rallies in USD/CHF toward 0.81 and leaves room for renewed downside tests toward 0.79 if the Fed delivers a dovish surprise

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Pound is starting the week on a firmer footing, trading comfortably above 1.33 against the U.S. dollar, with sentiment supported by expectations of easier global and UK policy but tempered by evidence of a still‑soft UK labour market. The GBP/USD rate was around 1.33 late last week, with one major data provider quoting 1.3319 on 5 December and noting that the Pound has gained roughly 1–1.5% over the past month and about 4–5% over the past year.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar is starting the week firm after stronger‑than‑expected jobs data, recent USD softness, and support from oil prices, with markets focused on next week’s Bank of Canada decision and whether CAD strength can extend after a sharp USD/CAD drop. USD/CAD is trading around 1.38, having risen slightly to about 1.3822 on Monday after last week’s sharp decline.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to limit overall resale volumes, resulting in only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil is trading calmly near two‑week highs today, with WTI around 60 USD and Brent just under 64 USD per barrel in Monday’s Asian and early European trade on 8 December 2025. The tape reflects a market balanced between expected Fed easing (supportive for demand) and elevated geopolitical risks to Russian and Venezuelan supply (supportive for prices), against a still-comfortable overall supply backdrop.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Gobal – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 08 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 8/12/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the South Africa Day of Reconciliation on Tuesday, 16 December, 2025.

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +2).

Kind regards,

IC Markets Team.

The post South Africa Day of Reconciliation Trading Schedule 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 5/12/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 99.09

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 98.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.67
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1649

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1612

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1711

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 179.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 178.67
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 181.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8749

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8708
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8798
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3262

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3162
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3410
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 155.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 153.13
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 157.61
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8038

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7987
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8094
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 155.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 153.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 157.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                       

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4047

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3935

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4134

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6572

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6518

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6623

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5743

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5689

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5797

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 47,380.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 46,847.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,426.81

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 23,488.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,293.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,956.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,773.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,673.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,870.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 94,626.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 89,151.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 100,094.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3,230.74

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,964.33

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,675.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 59.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 57.63
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 61.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,273.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,149.19
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,375.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 4th December 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Push Higher after Weaker Data – Dow up 0.8%

US stocks pushed higher in the latest session, extending their recent momentum as weaker-than-expected US jobs data strengthened expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. The Dow led the gains, rising 0.86% to close at 47,882, while the S&P 500 added 0.30% to finish at 6,849. The Nasdaq advanced more modestly, up 0.17% at 23,454. The softer ADP Non-Farm figures drove Treasury yields lower, with the 2-year slipping 2.4 basis points to 3.484% and the 10-year easing 2.7 basis points to 4.059%. The US dollar also weakened further, with the USD Index falling 0.46% to 98.87. Oil prices continued to move higher as faltering Russia–Ukraine peace talks kept geopolitical tensions elevated. Brent crude rose 0.56% to settle at $62.80, while WTI crude climbed 0.82% to $59.12. Gold traded in another rare tight range, slipping marginally by 0.05% to close at $4,204.13.

Pound in Focus for FX Markets

Sterling jumped into trader focus yesterday as the FX Gods aligned to see it drive higher against the dollar and on the crosses. Cable powered over 1% on the day with little respite in the move, and it was a similar story on the crosses with EUR/GBP losing 0.6% across all three trading sessions. There was no definitive driver of the move, but it does appear that a few different factors combined to see the outsized move occur. Most traders agree that the speculative side of the market was short, and stop-losses in Cable above 1.3270 and 1.3300 would have contributed to the move. Services and Composite PMI data also came in stronger than expected, but not by a degree that you would normally expect to move the market by that degree. The weaker US ADP number would have contributed to the move in Cable, and this could have fed through to cross moves as well, but overall traders feel that the move may have been overdone given other moves in the majors. Now, traders will be watching the pound closely in coming sessions to see whether the move is justified or whether we see a bit of retracement back into recent ranges.

Quieter Day on the Economic Calendar Today

The macroeconomic calendar is quieter during the first two sessions of the day today, but attention will shift back to the US tonight with some more key labour-market indicators due. Investors will be watching Challenger job cuts data earlier in the session, which has sprung up in importance since the government shutdown; last time out, they came in at 173%, and anything higher is likely to back last night’s ADP data miss and push rate-cut expectations up even further. Later in the session, we have the release of the weekly unemployment claims, with expectations for a 219k print firmly priced in. Canada’s Ivey PMI is also scheduled north of the border, with anything significantly off the expected 53.6 print likely to see volatility in the loonie.

The post General Market Analysis – 4/12/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 04 December 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session was dominated by signs of a rapidly cooling labor market, with the ADP National Employment Report unexpectedly showing private sector job losses for November. This negative surprise, following a soft JOLTS report on Tuesday, reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, putting downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar (USD). Stock markets were mixed; the Nasdaq faced pressure from reports of slowing AI sales growth at Microsoft, while semiconductor firm Marvell Technology surged on an acquisition deal.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Thursday’s Asian session occurs against a backdrop of diverging central bank policies, with the Fed poised to ease while the BOJ prepares to tighten. US labor market data will be critical for confirming the 87% market-implied probability of a December rate cut. Asian traders should monitor yen movements closely as BOJ rate hike expectations build toward the December 18-19 meeting. China’s economic weakness, evidenced by contracting manufacturing PMIs, remains a persistent headwind for regional equities, particularly in Hong Kong and mainland markets.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Challenger Job Cuts y/y (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is in a weakened state, trading near one-month lows amid mounting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming December 9-10 meeting. Three critical economic releases scheduled for ThursdayChallenger Job Cuts (12:30 PM EST), Unemployment Claims (1:30 PM EST), and Canadian Ivey PMI (3:00 PM EST), will provide crucial labor market signals ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision. The dollar index (DXY) has fallen to approximately 98.96-99.00, marking its ninth consecutive daily decline and weakest level since late October 2025.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressure but still warranting vigilance amid tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Challenger Job Cuts y/y (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices are trading firmly in bullish territory today, hovering around $4,230 – $4,240 per ounce during the Asian and early European sessions. The precious metal is being supported by a surge in bets for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week (Dec 9-10), following “disappointing” US labor data released yesterday.

The market is currently in a “bad news is good news” mode: signs of a weakening US labor market are driving the US Dollar lower, which in turn propels Gold higher as a hedge and due to lower yield expectations.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar is trading close to a three‑week high around 0.658–0.660 against the US Dollar after stronger‑than‑expected growth and sticky inflation reinforced a hawkish‑leaning RBA, while markets ramp up expectations for a Fed rate cut on 10 December, pressuring the USD.​

Near‑term volatility today will likely centre on Australia’s October trade data and household‑spending figures due at 00:30 GMT, with consensus looking for a wider surplus.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The yen is trading firmer with USD/JPY hovering around the mid‑155s after a string of signals that the Bank of Japan may hike rates at its Dec 18–19 meeting, which has lifted JPY from late‑November highs near 158. Markets are watching for any fresh BOJ guidance or data surprises; sustained Tokyo inflation near 2.7%–2.8% y/y keeps hike odds elevated while authorities also warn against excessive yen weakness.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The market still sees December as a seasonally soft month for USD/JPY, and the pair has already broken a prior bullish trendline, so any renewed risk‑off or stronger BOJ signals could trigger deeper yen gains toward the low‑150s.​

However, with US policy still expected to ease only gradually and Japan’s economy fragile, base case pricing keeps USD/JPY elevated, with officials in Washington and Tokyo both watching for disorderly moves if the rate tests the 158–160 “intervention zone” again.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil is trading near the upper‑$50s for WTI and low‑$60s for Brent, with price action today still shaped by oversupply worries, OPEC+’s decision to pause output hikes, and ongoing geopolitical risks around Russia‑Ukraine and Venezuela. Overall tone remains slightly bearish-to-sideways, with rallies capped by expectations of ample supply going into early 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 04 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.