DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 100.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 98.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 101.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1427

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.1147
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1567

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 164.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 160.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 166.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 0.8446

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8377
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8519
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction:  Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3425

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.3206
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3543
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 191.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 189.52

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 193.73
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8195

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8046
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8372
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 141.81

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 140.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 144.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3894

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum. 

1st support: 1.3794
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3974
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6459
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6379

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st resistance: 0.6523
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5938
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 0.5887

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6019

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 40,819.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 37,844.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 42,740.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 22,521.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 21,523.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,438.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,480.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum. 

1st support: 5,101.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,785.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 95,364.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 92,463.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st resistance: 99,293.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1,828.47
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1,669.20
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1,947.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 58.85

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 55.83
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 64.55
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3349.51

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify

1st support: 3240.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3492.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Tuesday 29th April 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 29 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

With no major macroeconomic data release overnight, news headlines focused on U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to modify the White House’s automotive tariffs by preventing duties from stacking on top of other tariffs that had been imposed earlier, while also scaling back some duties on foreign parts, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The move will mean that U.S. automakers paying automotive tariffs will not be subject to other duties, such as those on steel and aluminium, with the potential tariff relief likely aimed at allowing automakers more time to shift and onshore their supply chains. After seeing demand pick up last week, the greenback fell out of favour once more on Monday as the dollar index (DXY) fell 0.7%, dipping under the 99 level by the end of this session. Despite positive tariff news feeding through over the past week, financial markets remain on edge while trade policy uncertainty persists.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent will be delivering a speech titled “Australia’s External Position and the Evolution of the FX Markets” at an event hosted by Bloomberg in Sydney. During this event, he may be pressed with questions on the ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China – which is Australia’s largest trading partner. Demand for the Aussie remained robust as this currency pair climbed above the threshold of 0.6400 overnight.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After decreasing from 7.76M to 7.57M in February, job openings are anticipated to fall for the second consecutive month in March, down to 7.49M as reported by the JOLTS report. With the ongoing trade uncertainty between the U.S. and its major trading partners, it will not be surprising to see many U.S. corporations applying the brakes on aggressive hiring policies in the near term. Meanwhile, consumer confidence is set to report another notable drop. Following last Friday’s sharp decline in the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey, the Conference Board (CB) is expected to fall from 92.9 in the previous month to 87.7 in April – this would mark the fifth successive month of decline. The dollar could face strong headwinds should the above data come in worse than originally forecasted. 

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After decreasing from 7.76M to 7.57M in February, job openings are anticipated to fall for the second consecutive month in March, down to 7.49M as reported by the JOLTS report. With the ongoing trade uncertainty between the U.S. and its major trading partners, it will not be surprising to see many U.S. corporations applying the brakes on aggressive hiring policies in the near term. Meanwhile, consumer confidence is set to report another notable drop. Following last Friday’s sharp decline in the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey, the Conference Board (CB) is expected to fall from 92.9 in the previous month to 87.7 in April – this would mark the fifth successive month of decline. The dollar could face strong headwinds should the above data come in worse than originally forecasted, which would provide a lift for gold.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks (2:05 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent will be delivering a speech titled “Australia’s External Position and the Evolution of the FX Markets” at an event hosted by Bloomberg in Sydney. During this event, he may be pressed with questions on the ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China – which is Australia’s largest trading partner. Demand for the Aussie remained robust as this currency pair climbed above the threshold of 0.6400 overnight.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi has rallied over 7% since the beginning of April with no signs of demand waning. This currency pair dipped under the threshold of 0.6000 as Asian markets came online on Tuesday but the weaker greenback should keep it supported as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Global trade policy uncertainties have kept demand for safe-haven currencies elevated with USD/JPY falling 1.2% overnight. This currency pair fell under 142 at the beginning of this session, with overhead pressures building once again.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 1 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Germany GfK Consumer Climate (6:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Germany’s consumers have seen their confidence level plummet since November 2021 with no signs of improvement. The estimate of -25.6 for May points to another month of consumer pessimism despite the recently adopted fiscal stimulus package, which many hope would be implemented swiftly and effectively. Should consumer sentiment deteriorate more than anticipated, the Euro could face headwinds before the start of the European session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 April to mark the sixth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.40%, 2.65% and 2.25% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track with both headline and core inflation declining in March while services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.
• Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• In particular, the Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 5 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc continues to see strong inflows due to elevated demand for safe-haven currencies as USD/CHF declined 1.2% overnight. This currency pair was floating around 0.8200 as Asian markets came online but overhead pressures persist.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Demand for the pound remained robust as Cable rebounded over 0.5% after gapping lower at yesterday’s open. This currency pair once again climbed above the threshold of 1.3300, showing no signs of losing steam – a break above 1.3400 on Tuesday should come as no surprise.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Federal Election (All Day)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Canadian voters continue to head to the polls to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament – this will be the first election to use a new 343-seat electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census. Mark Carney, incumbent Prime Minister and the leader of the Liberal party, will be looking to secure another term for his party. Traders should brace themselves for higher volatility in the Loonie, especially if there is a major upset for the incumbents.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope – Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Lower demand growth expectations for crude oil continue to weigh on this commodity as WTI oil tumbled 2.3% on Monday. U.S. President Donald Trump’s push to reshape world trade by imposing tariffs on all U.S. imports has created a high risk that the global economy will slip into a recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll. Moving over to U.S. inventories, the API stockpiles have been building steadily since February, a sign of weaker demand. Another week of higher inventory levels would heap even more pressure on oil prices later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 29 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 29/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.35%, Shanghai Composite down 0.19%, Hang Seng down 0.02% ASX up 0.36%
• Commodities : Gold at $3292.35 (-0.19%), Silver at $32.8 (-0.49%), Brent Oil at $65.98 (0.15%), WTI Oil at $63.30 (0.19%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.267, UK 10-year yield at 4.5320, Germany 10-year yield at 2.4921

News & Data:

• (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m  0.5%  to -0.1%  expected
• (CAD) Retail Sales m/m  -0.4%  to -0.4%  expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed movements on Monday as investors evaluated China’s latest economic support measures and ongoing trade discussions between the U.S. and regional countries.

China’s finance minister, Lan Fo’an, announced that Beijing would implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to meet its annual growth targets and contribute to global economic stability, according to a translated statement from the ministry’s website.

In the markets, Mainland China’s CSI 300 index remained flat toward the session’s end, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.36% amid volatile trading. India’s Nifty 50 climbed 1.18%, and the BSE Sensex gained 1.08%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.38% to close at 35,839.99, while the broader Topix index advanced 0.86% to 2,650.61.

In South Korea, the Kospi inched up 0.1% to 2,548.86, but the small-cap Kosdaq declined 1.41% to 719.41. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 also ended higher, up 0.36% at 7,997.10.

Investors continue to monitor U.S.-Asia trade relations after reports suggested that President Donald Trump may resume imposing “reciprocal tariffs,” signaling a tougher stance in upcoming negotiations.

Meanwhile, U.S. futures slightly dipped ahead of a heavy earnings week. Despite this, Wall Street closed last Friday with gains, marking two positive weeks out of three. The S&P 500 rose 0.74% to 5,525.21, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.26% to 17,282.94, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up by 20 points, or 0.05%, to finish at 40,113.50.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Federal Election

The post Monday 28th April 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed as Investors Weigh China’s Stimulus Measures and U.S. Trade Talks first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 28 April 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian stock markets were mixed on Monday, as Japanese shares rose, boosted by Toyota’s surge on a potential buyout of its supplier, while Chinese stocks were subdued amidst ongoing uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-China trade negotiations. The outlook remained murky with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent contradicted President Donald Trump’s previous statements on Sunday, saying he was unaware of any ongoing tariff talks with China and uncertain whether Trump had recently communicated with Chinese President Xi Jinping. In addition, Beijing had also denied that any trade talks were in progress – the conflicting signals kept investors uncertain.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Canadian voters head to the polls to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament – this will be the first election to use a new 343-seat electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census. Mark Carney, incumbent Prime Minister and the leader of the Liberal party, will be looking to secure another term for his party. Traders should brace themselves for higher volatility in the Loonie, especially if there is a major upset for the incumbents.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

Dogged by uncertainty over trade talks between the U.S. and China clouding the outlook for global growth, investors and traders are treading cautiously – any announcements out of the White House likely to function as the latest catalyst for financial markets. Meanwhile, demand for the greenback rekindled last week as the DXY climbed above 99 and the upward momentum looks to have spilled over on the first trading day of this week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

Spot prices for gold recorded a new high of $3,500.02/oz last Tuesday before tumbling 5.2% to close at $3,318.62/oz. This precious metal fell under $3,300 as Asian markets came online, possibly fuelled by a bout of profit-taking after a strong run-up since mid-April.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Australia’s financial markets and banks will resume operation after a three-day weekend following the Anzac Day holiday on Friday. The Aussie rallied strongly last week, coming within a whisker of 0.6450 before running out of steam. Demand for this currency pair appeared to wane during Monday’s Asia session, as it edged toward 0.6350.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

New Zealand’s financial markets and banks will resume operation after a three-day weekend following the Anzac Day holiday on Friday. The Kiwi briefly surged past the threshold of 0.6000 last Tuesday before settling around 0.5960 last Friday. Demand for this currency looks to be tapering off slightly as it dipped under 0.5950 during Monday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Showa Day (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japanese banks will be closed in observance of Showa Day so the yen could face lower liquidity and irregular volatility during the Asia session. Meanwhile, demand for safe-haven currencies could remain elevated – USD/JPY was sliding toward 143.50 at the beginning of this session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 1 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

After rallying strongly last Monday to come within a whisker of 1.1600, the Euro ran out of steam as it tumbled 1.9% to close at 1.1359 on Friday. Overhead pressures are building for this currency pair as traders look to be engaging in profit-taking following a robust surge over the past four weeks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 April to mark the sixth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.40%, 2.65% and 2.25% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track with both headline and core inflation declining in March while services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.
• Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• In particular, the Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 5 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc remained elevated as UDS/CHF edged toward 0.8250 at the beginning of the Asia session. With uncertainty over trade talks between the U.S. and China clouding the economic outlook, investors remain cautious.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Cable gapped lower at today’s open, dipping under 1.3300 before filling this void. However, demand for this currency pair appears to be waning as it edged lower as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Federal Election (All Day)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Canadian voters head to the polls to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament – this will be the first election to use a new 343-seat electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census. Mark Carney, incumbent Prime Minister and the leader of the Liberal party, will be looking to secure another term for his party. Traders should brace themselves for higher volatility in the Loonie, especially if there is a major upset for the incumbents.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope – Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Headwinds remain firmly in place for crude oil, dogged by uncertainty over trade talks between the U.S. and China clouding the outlook for global growth and fuel demand, while the prospect of OPEC+ raising its supply cast more gloom. WTI gapped higher to open at $63.50 per barrel, initially rising toward the $64 mark before reversing to decline rapidly – a drop below $63 would come as no surprise.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 28 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Rally into Weekend – Nasdaq up 1.25%

US stock markets closed out last week on a positive footing as they rose again in trading on Friday, with optimism increasing again that trade deals will occur. The Dow edged just 0.05% higher by the close, but tech stocks helped to pull the S&P up 0.74%, and the Nasdaq up 1.26%, to better levels. The dollar also edged higher against the majors, with the havens again hit the hardest, the DXY up 0.06% to 99.47. Treasury yields took a dip, the 2-year dropping 4.9 basis points to 3.748% and the 10-year off 8 basis points to close out at 4.235%. Oil prices pushed higher on Friday in quieter trading conditions, Brent up 0.48% to $66.87 and WTI up 0.37% to $63.02, whilst gold dropped on trade hopes, down 0.85% on the day to close out the week at $3,318.22 an ounce.

Magnificent 7 in Focus this Week

US stocks have experienced a strong rebound after suffering early in the month to recover nearly all of their losses on the indices; however, these moves will likely be put to the test in the coming days with some key members of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ due to report earnings. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple are all due to update the market this week, and a consistent trend from these major players could see strong moves in the market. Last week’s results were generally mixed, and if that pattern continues, expect indices to remain bid on growth hopes; however, if we see a strong bias, either higher or lower, then this could set a new trend for the coming weeks.

Quiet Calendar Day to Kick off a Busy Week

It should be another interesting week ahead for global financial markets, with many investors hoping that we see the focus moving away from pure trade talk and back over to fundamentals. Investors will likely use today’s trading sessions to assess the plethora of recent updates we have had to plan longer-term positions. There is little on the schedule for the first two trading sessions of the day, and it is a similar story in the US session, although Canadian Federal Elections will keep those north of the border on their toes if voting doesn’t go as planned. This does change as we progress through the week, with big US jobs, inflation numbers, and earnings reports due, as well as the Bank of Japan rate call, which could lift volatility again.

The post General Market Analysis – 28/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 100.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 98.32

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 101.77
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1192

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 1.1051
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1512

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 164.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 160.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 166.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 0.8499

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8431
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8607
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction:  Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3110

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 1.3005
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3415
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish reversal off the pivot and fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 192.12

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 186.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 195.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8400

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 0.8089
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8604
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 145.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 140.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 147.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3946

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum. 

1st support: 1.3815
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4093
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6328
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.6205

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6454
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5912
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.5820

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6025

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 40,856.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 38,100.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 42,588.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 22,423.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 21,505.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,369.25
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,528.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 5,151.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,778.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 94,852.52
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 88,147.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 106,444.58
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1,808.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum. 

1st support: 1,451.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as swing-low support indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,102.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction:  Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 65.64

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 57.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 71.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,237.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 3,127.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,424.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 28th April 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Consumer sentiment dropped sharply in February as reported by the University of Michigan, tumbling to 52.2 from 57.0 in the previous month. Sentiment fell for a fourth consecutive month – the lowest since July 2022 – as consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead. In addition, labour market expectations remained bleak as consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warning signs perceived by consumers. Despite plunging sentiment, the dollar index (DXY) notched its first weekly gain in five weeks as it closed at 99.58 on Friday.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Japanese banks will be closed in observance of Showa Day so the yen could face lower liquidity and irregular volatility during the Asia session. Meanwhile, demand for safe-haven currencies could remain elevated – USD/JPY was sliding toward 143.50 at the beginning of this session.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from DXY today?

Dogged by uncertainty over trade talks between the U.S. and China clouding the outlook for global growth, investors and traders are treading cautiously – any announcements out of the White House likely to function as the latest catalyst for financial markets. Meanwhile, demand for the greenback rekindled last week as the DXY climbed above 99 and the upward momentum looks to have spilled over on the first trading day of this week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

Spot prices for gold recorded a new high of $3,500.02/oz last Tuesday before tumbling 5.2% to close at $3,318.62/oz. This precious metal fell under $3,300 as Asian markets came online, possibly fuelled by a bout of profit-taking after a strong run-up since mid-April.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Anzac Day (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Australia’s financial markets and banks will resume operation after a three-day weekend following the Anzac Day holiday on Friday. The Aussie rallied strongly last week, coming within a whisker of 0.6450 before running out of steam. Demand for this currency pair appeared to wane during Monday’s Asia session, as it edged toward 0.6350.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

New Zealand’s financial markets and banks will resume operation after a three-day weekend following the Anzac Day holiday on Friday. The Kiwi briefly surged past the threshold of 0.6000 last Tuesday before settling around 0.5960 last Friday. Demand for this currency looks to be tapering off slightly as it dipped under 0.5950 during Monday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Showa Day (Bank Holiday)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japanese banks will be closed in observance of Showa Day so the yen could face lower liquidity and irregular volatility during the Asia session. Meanwhile, demand for safe-haven currencies could remain elevated – USD/JPY was sliding toward 143.50 at the beginning of this session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 1 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

After rallying strongly last Monday to come within a whisker of 1.1600, the Euro ran out of steam as it tumbled 1.9% to close at 1.1359 on Friday. Overhead pressures are building for this currency pair as traders look to be engaging in profit-taking following a robust surge over the past four weeks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 April to mark the sixth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.40%, 2.65% and 2.25% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track with both headline and core inflation declining in March while services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.
• Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• In particular, the Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 5 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc remained elevated as UDS/CHF edged toward 0.8250 at the beginning of the Asia session. With uncertainty over trade talks between the U.S. and China clouding the economic outlook, investors remain cautious.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Cable gapped lower at today’s open, dipping under 1.3300 before filling this void. However, demand for this currency pair appears to be waning as it edged lower as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Federal Election (All Day)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Canadian voters head to the polls to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament – this will be the first election to use a new 343-seat electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census. Mark Carney, incumbent Prime Minister and the leader of the Liberal party, will be looking to secure another term for his party. Traders should brace themselves for higher volatility in the Loonie, especially if there is a major upset for the incumbents.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope – Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Headwinds remain firmly in place for crude oil, dogged by uncertainty over trade talks between the U.S. and China clouding the outlook for global growth and fuel demand, while the prospect of OPEC+ raising its supply cast more gloom. WTI gapped higher to open at $63.50 per barrel, initially rising toward the $64 mark before reversing to decline rapidly – a drop below $63 would come as no surprise.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Volatility did seem to dip slightly across financial markets last week in a holiday-shortened trading period, although the propensity for moves off geopolitical updates remains high.
The macroeconomic calendar picks up considerably in the week ahead, with US data coming back to the fore alongside some key updates from other jurisdictions, including a key interest rate call from the Bank of Japan.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It’s a quiet start to the trading week on Monday, with little on the schedule to move the dial through most of the sessions, although Canadian dollar traders will keep a close eye on political developments with the Federal Election taking place.

Asian markets have little scheduled again; however, Japanese markets are on holiday, so liquidity will be slightly lower than usual. It’s a similar story in Europe, with just Spanish Flash CPI and GDP numbers of any real note, but things look set to heat up on the US open. We have the first of a few jobs numbers for the week out early in the day in the form of the JOLTS Job Openings data, as well as the CB Consumer Sentiment data release.

It is a busier day on the event calendar again on Wednesday, with the initial focus in Asia on Australian markets for the CPI data before it moves north to China for Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing data releases. Germany will be in focus shortly after the London open with Prelim CPI data due out before we hit the US session and several data releases. The US ADP Non-Farm numbers are due just before the Advance GDP data and Employment Cost Index numbers, with the Canadian GDP update also being released. Later in the session, we have the Fed’s favoured inflation number, the Core PCE Price Index numbers, out before Pending Homes data.

Thursday markets could be lively, with some key updates coming alongside May Day holidays in several major centres. The major focus for the Asian market will be the Bank of Japan’s rate call before we hit the European day and thinner liquidity conditions, with France, Germany, and Italy all on holiday. The New York day once again has some key data drops, with the usual Weekly Unemployment Claims numbers out before the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices data releases.

Non-Farms day has come around again, and it looks like the usual set-up, with little of note scheduled for the first two sessions of the day before we hit the US session and the big data drop. As always, the headline Non-Farm Employment Change number will dominate the initial market move, but the Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate are also released at the same time, and they will influence moves as well.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 27 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 28/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Markets Rally as Investors Look to Fed – Nasdaq up 2.7%

US stock indices rallied well in trading yesterday as investors looked to the Fed for earlier rate cuts and earnings results delivered a mixed bag. Tech stocks led the way after Alphabet delivered a solid earnings report, with the Nasdaq closing up 2.74%. The S&P added 2.03% on the day, while the Dow gained 1.23%. The dollar dropped after the previous day’s optimistic rally, with the DXY down 0.44% to 99.31, whilst Treasury yields fell on Fed comments hinting at a June cut—the 2-year off 7.4 basis points to 3.797% and the benchmark 10-year down 6.7 basis points to 4.315%. Oil prices moved higher on the back of the weaker greenback, with Brent up 0.64% to $66.54 and WTI up 0.84% to $62.79. Gold rallied 1.84% to $3,348.23 after its loss on the previous day.

Markets Poised for Moves Either Side

Markets seem to have hit a nervous patch in the last few days, with the initial euphoria from potential tariff reprieves replaced by tension about the details and timing of any moves. Investors are now craving certainty from the US administration on what tariffs will be implemented, with most now almost hoping for another ‘Trump Board Session’, similar to Liberation Day, where we are told exactly what the real tariffs will be. Many products are now trading in a ‘volatile limbo’ state, with flows still moving markets strongly due to recent volatility. However, most moves are lacking clear conviction, as the market still lacks certainty, but expect new trends to emerge in the near future when we do get more details on trade deals—with lower tariffs and more certainty likely to lead to more relief rallies.

Data and Geopolitics to Dominate into the Weekend

It looks like being another lively end to the week as traders face data updates throughout the trading day and remain glued to news screens for any fresh updates on global trade. The Asian session is due to start on the front foot after a good day on Wall Street, and focus will be on Japanese markets early in the day when key Tokyo CPI data is released—expected to show a hefty 3.2% year-on-year increase. The European session also looks busy, with UK Retail Sales data due out (exp. -0.3% m/m) and SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel due to speak. The New York session will see initial focus north of the border for Canadian Retail Sales numbers (exp. -0.4% m/m and Core -0.1% m/m) before dropping back south for any updates on tariffs and the University of Michigan revised data updates.

The post General Market Analysis – 25/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 25/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.