IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 04 December 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Today’s Asia session was more about minor repricing than new trends: AUD and NZD were gently pressured by their domestic data, JPY crosses stayed sensitive to Japan headlines, and broad USD and risk sentiment largely marked time ahead of bigger U.S. and European events later in the day. For day‑traders, the cleaner opportunities were short‑term fades around the AUD GDP release and intraday swings in AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, and USD/JPY, while majors like EUR/USD and GBP/USD mostly traded in tight ranges, awaiting London and U.S. catalysts.​

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
The main tradable catalysts are the U.S. ADP employment report, ISM Services PMI, final services PMIs in Europe and the UK, and two high‑impact speeches from ECB President Lagarde, all set against a backdrop of markets pricing imminent Fed and BoE rate cuts and reassessing Eurozone inflation risks. Together with geopolitical headlines such as the EU’s plan to tap frozen Russian assets for Ukraine, these events will shape risk sentiment across FX, rates, equities, and commodities as London and New York trade get underway today.​

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1:15 pm GMT)

ISM Services PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

A significantly weaker‑than‑expected ADP print or a drop in ISM Services PMI toward the 50 level would likely weigh further on the dollar, as it would strengthen the case for not just one cut next week but a deeper easing cycle in 2026.​

Conversely, a solid ADP surprise (well above consensus) and a firm services PMI would support a bounce in the dollar, especially against low‑yielders like JPY and CHF, by challenging the current pricing of aggressive Fed easing.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted by majority to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1:15 pm GMT)

ISM Services PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is consolidating just under record levels after an exceptional year, with a short‑term pullback driven mainly by shifting expectations for the December Fed decision and a firmer dollar. The broader trend remains bullish as real‑rate expectations, institutional positioning, and safe‑haven flows continue to underpin demand into the first week of December.​

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde Speaks(1:30 pm GMT)

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (3:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro is consolidating near 1.16 with a modest positive trend intact over the past month, supported by expectations of a steady ECB versus a more dovish Fed. Inflation data and ECB messaging point to rates on hold, so short‑term Euro moves are likely to hinge on surprises in Eurozone PMIs and U.S. releases rather than any immediate policy change from Frankfurt.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, supported by stable banking-sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

CPI m/m (7:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc is slightly stronger today, with USD/CHF trading just above the key 0.80 level as markets price in higher odds of U.S. rate cuts while Swiss data focus remains on upcoming inflation figures. Overall, sentiment is that the franc will stay relatively firm into year‑end unless Swiss inflation surprises sharply lower again. USD/CHF is hovering around the 0.80–0.81 area after slipping earlier in the week, reflecting modest franc strength against the dollar.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

Today’s story for the pound is one of mild pullback after a solid period of strength, with no major UK-specific shock but continued sensitivity to BoE rate expectations and upcoming economic releases. GBP has eased marginally against the dollar compared with yesterday’s close, after a strong run over the past month that saw the pound gain roughly half a percent and about 4% over the past year.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar is slightly firmer today, with USD/CAD trading just under the 1.40 level as markets weigh softer U.S. data, stable oil prices and expectations of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.USD/CAD is around 1.3970 on December 3, down about 0.2% from the previous session, leaving the loonie modestly stronger on the day.​ Over the past month, CAD has gained just under 1% versus the U.S. dollar and is up slightly year‑on‑year, reflecting a gradual recovery from earlier weakness.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to limit overall resale volumes, resulting in only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are slightly lower today, with Brent crude trading near 62 dollars per barrel and WTI just below 59 dollars, as weak demand and uncertainty around Ukraine peace efforts weigh on the market. The broader backdrop remains a modest downtrend over the past month despite OPEC+ keeping its output policy broadly unchanged.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 04 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.36%, Shanghai Composite up 0.05%, Hang Seng up 0.23% ASX up 0.11%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,223.15 (-0.23%), Silver at $58.733 (0.19%), Brent Oil at $62.93 (0.41%), WTI Oil at $59.24(0.49%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.077, UK 10-year yield at 4.4490, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7461

News & Data:

• (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  -32K  to 5K expected

Markets Update:

Asian stocks were mostly lower on Thursday despite positive cues from Wall Street, as investors continued to worry about stretched technology valuations. Sentiment remained cautious even though weak U.S. private sector jobs data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next week. Markets in the region ended mixed in the previous session. The FedWatch Tool currently signals an 89% probability of another 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting.

Australia’s market traded slightly lower, reversing some recent gains, with gold miners and financials weighing on the index despite strength in iron ore, energy and technology stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 hovered just below 8,600, while the All Ordinaries also declined. Major miners like Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue advanced, but some gold miners and banks were weaker. Vulcan Energy fell sharply after a major capital raise, while Argenica Therapeutics jumped on positive clinical trial news. Australia also reported a smaller-than-expected trade surplus for October, with exports and imports both rising. The Aussie dollar traded around $0.661.

Japan’s Nikkei moved higher, extending recent gains as heavyweight stocks, exporters and financials advanced. SoftBank and Fast Retailing led the rise, while several industrial and electronics names posted sharp increases. Meanwhile, broader Asian markets were mostly lower, except Indonesia.

On Wall Street, major U.S. indexes closed higher, with the Dow outperforming. European markets ended mixed, while crude oil prices rose slightly.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Thursday 4th December 2025: Asian Stocks Edge Lower as Tech Valuation Concerns Persist first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 4/12/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Push Higher on Fed Cut Bets – Nasdaq up 0.6%

US equities advanced overnight as investors continued to strongly price in a rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week. The Dow rose 0.39% to close at 47,474, the S&P 500 lifted 0.25% to 6,829, and the Nasdaq led the way again with a 0.59% gain to finish at 23,413. The US 2-year Treasury yield fell 2.2 basis points to 3.508%, while the 10-year benchmark held steady at 4.086%. The US dollar extended its recent declines against the majors, slipping 0.07% to 99.35 on the DXY. In commodities, oil prices weakened as uncertainty persisted around Russia–Ukraine peace discussions. Brent crude fell 1.25% to settle at $62.38, while WTI crude similarly dropped 1.25% to $58.58. Gold also moved lower, retreating 0.58% to $4,206.95 as profit-taking flows emerged following its strong performance in recent sessions.

Market Pricing in 25-Basis-Point Cut from Fed
Investors continue to strongly anticipate a 25-basis-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at next week’s meeting. With Fed officials now in their pre-meeting blackout period, markets are trading heavily on expectations that we will see a cut from the Fed next Wednesday, with the short end of the yield curve close to annual lows. Pricing now sits around the 90% level that we will see 25 basis points, with a 66% chance that the rate will remain there in January, whilst a chance of 25% is being priced in that we see two rate cuts in the coming meetings. There now seems to be little room for more dovish surprises in the days ahead, and so traders feel that the risk sits with any corrections in the market, especially if data comes out on the hawkish side of expectations, with a particular focus on the Fed’s favoured inflation indicator, the Core PCE, due out on Friday.

Busy Day Ahead for Markets
Today’s economic calendar looks notably more active across all trading regions. In the Asian session, Australia will release its latest GDP data, with expectations for a 0.7% month-on-month increase priced in. The European session will see Switzerland publish CPI figures (exp -0.1% m/m), followed by remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde later in the day. Attention then shifts to the US session, where several key indicators are due out, including the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (exp 5K), the ISM Services PMI (exp 52.0), and weekly US crude oil inventory data (exp -1.9mio). These releases will be closely monitored for further signals on the strength of the US economy and the Fed’s policy trajectory.

The post General Market Analysis – 3/12/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 03 December 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Today’s Asia session was more about minor repricing than new trends: AUD and NZD were gently pressured by their domestic data, JPY crosses stayed sensitive to Japan headlines, and broad USD and risk sentiment largely marked time ahead of bigger U.S. and European events later in the day. For day‑traders, the cleaner opportunities were short‑term fades around the AUD GDP release and intraday swings in AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, and USD/JPY, while majors like EUR/USD and GBP/USD mostly traded in tight ranges, awaiting London and U.S. catalysts.​

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
The main tradable catalysts are the U.S. ADP employment report, ISM Services PMI, final services PMIs in Europe and the UK, and two high‑impact speeches from ECB President Lagarde, all set against a backdrop of markets pricing imminent Fed and BoE rate cuts and reassessing Eurozone inflation risks. Together with geopolitical headlines such as the EU’s plan to tap frozen Russian assets for Ukraine, these events will shape risk sentiment across FX, rates, equities, and commodities as London and New York trade get underway today.​

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1:15 pm GMT)

ISM Services PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

A significantly weaker‑than‑expected ADP print or a drop in ISM Services PMI toward the 50 level would likely weigh further on the dollar, as it would strengthen the case for not just one cut next week but a deeper easing cycle in 2026.​

Conversely, a solid ADP surprise (well above consensus) and a firm services PMI would support a bounce in the dollar, especially against low‑yielders like JPY and CHF, by challenging the current pricing of aggressive Fed easing.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted by majority to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1:15 pm GMT)

ISM Services PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is consolidating just under record levels after an exceptional year, with a short‑term pullback driven mainly by shifting expectations for the December Fed decision and a firmer dollar. The broader trend remains bullish as real‑rate expectations, institutional positioning, and safe‑haven flows continue to underpin demand into the first week of December.​

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde Speaks(1:30 pm GMT)

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (3:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro is consolidating near 1.16 with a modest positive trend intact over the past month, supported by expectations of a steady ECB versus a more dovish Fed. Inflation data and ECB messaging point to rates on hold, so short‑term Euro moves are likely to hinge on surprises in Eurozone PMIs and U.S. releases rather than any immediate policy change from Frankfurt.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, supported by stable banking-sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

CPI m/m (7:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc is slightly stronger today, with USD/CHF trading just above the key 0.80 level as markets price in higher odds of U.S. rate cuts while Swiss data focus remains on upcoming inflation figures. Overall, sentiment is that the franc will stay relatively firm into year‑end unless Swiss inflation surprises sharply lower again. USD/CHF is hovering around the 0.80–0.81 area after slipping earlier in the week, reflecting modest franc strength against the dollar.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

Today’s story for the pound is one of mild pullback after a solid period of strength, with no major UK-specific shock but continued sensitivity to BoE rate expectations and upcoming economic releases. GBP has eased marginally against the dollar compared with yesterday’s close, after a strong run over the past month that saw the pound gain roughly half a percent and about 4% over the past year.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar is slightly firmer today, with USD/CAD trading just under the 1.40 level as markets weigh softer U.S. data, stable oil prices and expectations of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.USD/CAD is around 1.3970 on December 3, down about 0.2% from the previous session, leaving the loonie modestly stronger on the day.​ Over the past month, CAD has gained just under 1% versus the U.S. dollar and is up slightly year‑on‑year, reflecting a gradual recovery from earlier weakness.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to limit overall resale volumes, resulting in only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are slightly lower today, with Brent crude trading near 62 dollars per barrel and WTI just below 59 dollars, as weak demand and uncertainty around Ukraine peace efforts weigh on the market. The broader backdrop remains a modest downtrend over the past month despite OPEC+ keeping its output policy broadly unchanged.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 03 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 03 December 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

​During the latest U.S. session, markets focused on upcoming U.S. data (ADP employment, ISM services, oil inventories) and Fed expectations, with modest risk‑on flows into U.S. equities, a firmer dollar, and continued volatility in crypto, metals, and oil. The most impacted instruments were major U.S. stock indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow), bitcoin and crypto‑linked equities, the U.S. dollar vs. JPY/EUR, industrial metals (especially copper and silver), and crude oil benchmarks.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian markets are set to open with a tone of “cautious stabilization” following a turbulent start to the week. While US markets managed to arrest Monday’s sharp sell-off (S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.4%), conviction remains low. The immediate focus for the Asian session is Australia’s Q3 GDP release, but the broader narrative is dominated by the shockingly low forecast for US ADP Employment (5K) later in the day, which suggests traders are bracing for a potential stall in the US labor market.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1:15 pm GMT)

ISM Services PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading soft around 99.40–99.50, hovering near a 2-week low. Weak economic data has cemented expectations for a rate cut. Markets are now pricing in an 87% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its December 10 meeting. Investors are awaiting JOLTS Job Openings data and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell (scheduled for later today), which could further confirm the dovish outlook.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressure but still warranting vigilance amid tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1:15 pm GMT)

ISM Services PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading in a bullish consolidation phase around $4,220–$4,235, supported by high expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. Gold remains strong following weak US manufacturing data, with traders buying dips near $4,200. Volatility is expected to spike. The key event is the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1:15 PM), where forecasts are exceptionally low (5K–7K vs. 42K previous). A result this low would signal severe labor market cooling, likely pushing Gold prices higher toward $4,265 or $4,300.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

GDP q/q (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has found fresh bullish momentum today, trading firmly around 0.6550–0.6570, following a stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP release. The Australian economy grew by 0.7% in the third quarter (beating the 0.6% forecast), driven by a surge in government spending and resilient business investment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The NZD sits in a “cautious recovery” regime: policy has shifted from aggressive easing to wait‑and‑see, domestic data are surprisingly positive, and markets are trimming expectations for additional near‑term cuts, all of which are modestly NZD‑supportive as long as global risk conditions stay stable.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The market still sees December as a seasonally soft month for USD/JPY, and the pair has already broken a prior bullish trendline, so any renewed risk‑off or stronger BOJ signals could trigger deeper yen gains toward the low‑150s.​

However, with US policy still expected to ease only gradually and Japan’s economy fragile, base case pricing keeps USD/JPY elevated, with officials in Washington and Tokyo both watching for disorderly moves if the rate tests the 158–160 “intervention zone” again.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil sits in a corrective pullback after a short‑covering bounce, with sentiment neutral‑to‑slightly bearish over the past month but underpinned by OPEC+ discipline and localized supply disruptions. Expect headline sensitivity to any surprise OPEC+ commentary, developments in Russia‑Ukraine/Venezuela, and incoming macro data that could shift demand expectations.​

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 03 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.61%, Shanghai Composite down -0.09%, Hang Seng down -0.98% ASX up 0.13%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,255.30 (0.82%), Silver at $59.603 (1.49%), Brent Oil at $62.45 (0.00%), WTI Oil at $58.64(0.00%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.081, UK 10-year yield at 4.4710, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7515

News & Data:

• (EUR) Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y  2.4%  to 2.4% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stocks traded mostly higher on Wednesday, mirroring the positive cues from Wall Street as technology shares rallied alongside a rebound in Bitcoin. Investor sentiment also remained supported by expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week. Markets in Asia closed largely higher in the previous session.

Attention now shifts to upcoming US economic data, including private sector employment figures from ADP, which could influence the Fed’s policy outlook. Additional reports on services activity, income, spending, and consumer sentiment are also awaited.

Australian shares posted modest gains, with the S&P/ASX 200 hovering below 8,600. Advances in financials and energy were partly offset by declines in gold miners, while technology stocks showed a mixed performance. Meanwhile, Australia’s GDP grew 0.4 percent in the third quarter, missing forecasts, though annual growth improved slightly to 2.1 percent.

Japanese stocks continued their upward momentum, with the Nikkei 225 moving above 49,850 on strong tech gains, despite weakness in automakers and financials. Major tech names such as Advantest and Screen Holdings surged, while some exporters and consumer stocks declined.

Elsewhere in Asia, markets were mostly positive, led by South Korea, while China and Hong Kong traded slightly lower.

On Wall Street, stocks ended higher on Tuesday after early fluctuations, with solid gains for the Nasdaq and Dow. European markets were mixed, while crude oil prices slipped amid optimism over potential progress toward resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:15 PM GMT – EUR ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

The post Wednesday 3rd December 2025: Asian Stocks Gain on Tech Rally and Fed Rate Cut Optimism first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 99.52

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 98.67

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 100.07
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.1601

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1552

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1651

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 179.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 178.67
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 181.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8800

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8769
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8825
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3171

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3012
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3292
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 205.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 204.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 207.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8068

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7987
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8111
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 155.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 153.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 157.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                       

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4047

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3935

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4134

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.6540

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6509

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6611

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5688

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5637

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5762

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 46,864.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 46,442.68

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,005.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 23,488.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,293.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,956.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,773.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,673.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,870.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 94,626.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 89,151.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 100,094.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3,230.74

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap  resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,861.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,675.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 59.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 57.63
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 61.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,273.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,149.19
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,375.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 3rd December 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 02 December 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Soft‑ish data, still‑tight policy ISM manufacturing underlined a cooling economy but did not decisively break the Fed narrative, leaving markets choppy and headline‑driven.​ Equities and crypto corrected after strong prior gains; gold and, to a lesser extent, Treasuries acted as partial havens, while the dollar treaded water. ​Powell’s upcoming speech and confirmation that quantitative tightening has ended on Dec. 1 are seen as the next major catalysts for U.S. rates, dollar, and high‑beta risk assets into the December FOMC meeting.​

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

For the Wednesday Asia session, liquidity and volatility are likely to cluster around positioning for Powell’s upcoming appearance, anticipation of Eurozone flash CPI, and any early leaks or commentary ahead of RBA Governor Bullock’s speech, with particular focus on USD majors, EUR pairs, AUD crosses, JPY crosses, and gold/crypto as sentiment barometers.​

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Fed Chair Powell Speaks (1:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Slightly bearish USD near term, with rallies sold as long as markets price a December cut and Powell avoids a strong pushback.​ Powell’s testimony/speech timing today, shifts in Fed-dated OIS pricing for the December meeting, and any surprise in housing/vehicle or labor indicators that could challenge the current “softening growth, easing Fed” narrative.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressure but still warranting vigilance amid tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Fed Chair Powell Speaks (1:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading near recent six‑week highs around the low–mid‑$4,200s per ounce today, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and risk‑off flows into safe havens. Price action remains bullish but stretched, with analysts watching for shallow pullbacks toward support before any attempt to retest October’s record highs around $4,380.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

RBA Gov Bullock Speaks (1:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Mildly bullish to sideways for AUD, supported by Fed‑cut pricing and prior strong Australian CPI, but constrained by China growth worries and event risk from Q3 GDP and the RBA Governor’s speech.​ US dollar reaction to incoming US data, tone from Bullock’s remarks, and any surprises in Australian building approvals; sharper risk‑off moves or particularly soft Australian numbers would likely cap or reverse recent AUD gains.​​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The NZD is in a consolidation phase after a central‑bank‑driven rebound, supported by a “near‑end” to RBNZ easing and slightly better local data but capped by a still‑weak domestic economy and dependence on global risk appetite. For intraday trading on 2 December 2025, watch GDT headlines, U.S. data, and Fed‑related commentary, and broader risk sentiment rather than any major scheduled New Zealand releases.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen is slightly firmer today near the mid-155 per dollar area, supported by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates at its December 18–19 policy meeting. Markets remain focused on BOJ communication and upcoming Japan data, so intraday JPY moves are mostly driven by shifts in rate-hike odds and broad dollar sentiment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil is modestly firmer today, with Brent and WTI holding gains above recent lows as traders focus on new supply disruptions and rising geopolitical risk, while overall trends remain range‑bound and slightly bearish. Prices are supported in the short term by outages in the Black Sea/Caspian region and tensions around Venezuela, but high global supply and OPEC+’s current output stance are limiting the upside.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 02 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Pull Back on Weaker Data – Dow off 0.9%

US stocks retreated overnight as renewed weakness in the manufacturing sector added pressure to broader market sentiment. The latest ISM Manufacturing report missed expectations once again, reinforcing concerns that ongoing tariff effects are continuing to weigh on activity. The Dow led the equity declines, falling 0.90% to close at 47,289, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.53% to 6,812. The Nasdaq also moved lower, easing 0.38% to finish the session at 23,275. The softer data drove US Treasury yields higher, while the US dollar eased slightly against the majors; the DXY edged down 0.07%, ending the day at 99.41. Bond markets saw yields climb across the curve, with the US 2-year Treasury rising 4.1 basis points to 3.531%, and the 10-year yield increasing 7.3 basis points to 4.086%. Commodity markets were firmer, particularly in energy. Brent gained 1.44% to settle at $63.28, while WTI advanced 1.59% to $59.48, supported by reports of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian facilities and confirmation that OPEC will keep production unchanged through Q1 2026. Gold briefly reached a six-week high before easing back to close 0.21% lower at $4,230.23.

Yen Remains in Focus for FX Traders

Once again, the yen took centre spot for FX traders yesterday, as comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicating that a December rate hike could be on the cards saw the currency rally against the dollar and on the crosses. USDJPY took a big hit as the interest rate differential potential of the strongly priced-in Fed rate cut and now a Bank of Japan hike contributed to seeing it drop over 1% from peak to trough before recovering later in the day. Traders are now firmly in a “sell the rally” mode for the pair, with resistance now coming in on the daily charts at yesterday’s break level near 156.00, and support on yesterday’s low at 154.65. A break of that level should see the move extended, with the next target being the November lows just below 153.00.

Quiet Calendar Day Ahead of a Busy Week

Today’s economic calendar is relatively light, although comments from central bankers during the Asian session may provide some volatility early in the day. The Asian session has little in the way of data today, but central banker updates look set to move markets. We have already heard from the new RBNZ Governor Anna Breman, which has seen a bit of pressure on the Kiwi dollar after some dovish comments, and we do have a rare Asian-session speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell when he speaks from Stanford University, which could see some bigger moves in the market. The London session sees the release of key EU inflation data, with the CPI Flash Estimate (exp. 2.1% y/y) and Core CPI Flash Estimate (exp. 2.4% y/y) out a few hours after the open. The New York session has its quietest calendar day for the week, with no tier 1 data on the cards, but we do hear from Fed member Michelle Bowman when she testifies in front of the House Financial Services Committee.

The post General Market Analysis – 2/12/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 99.52

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 98.67

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 127.2% Fiboancci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 100.07
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance. Also, the price is moving within a bullish channel

Pivot: 1.1601

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1552

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1651

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 179.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 178.67
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 181.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8793

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8744
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8825
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3171

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3012
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3292
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 206.39

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 204.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 207.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8068

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7987
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8111
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 155.85

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 153.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 157.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                       

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4047

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3935

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4134

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6513

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6475

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6573

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5688

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5637

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5762

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 46,864.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 46,442.68

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,005.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 23,488.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 22,917.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,956.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,773.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,673.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,870.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 89,151.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 81,693.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 94,626.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,960.91

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,670.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,230.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 60.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 58.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 61.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,273.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,149.19
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,375.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Tuesday 2nd December 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 02 December 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Today’s Asia session was driven mainly by lingering Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate‑hike speculation, follow‑through from a global crypto sell‑off, and positioning ahead of key U.S. and euro area data later in the day. The biggest market moves were in JPY pairs, Asian equity indices (especially Nikkei futures), and safe‑haven assets like gold, while crypto‑linked assets and some high‑beta FX lagged.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
For today’s European and U.S. sessions, markets are focused on euro area flash CPI, Fed communication including Chair Powell’s remarks, and ongoing positioning around an expected Fed rate cut later in December. Risk sentiment is fragile after global equities softened and crypto saw heavy liquidations, while gold remains supported on rate‑cut expectations.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Fed Chair Powell Speaks (1:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar is trading slightly softer today as the dollar index holds near a two‑week low, with markets focused on a likely Fed rate cut at next week’s FOMC and the broader shift toward a more dovish policy stance. Overall, sentiment around the greenback remains cautious, with investors fading rallies and watching Fed Chair Powell’s communications and upcoming U.S. data for confirmation of the easing path.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Fed Chair Powell Speaks (1:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading near six‑week highs, supported by expectations of a December Fed rate cut and a softer US dollar, with spot prices holding around the 4,230–4,260 USD/oz region in early trading. Overall bias intraday is still bullish but stretched, so many analysts are watching for a corrective pullback toward nearby support before any renewed push toward the October record highs above 4,350–4,380 USD/oz.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y (10:00 am GMT)

CPI Flash Estimate y/y (10:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Mildly constructive but still range‑bound, with markets waiting for today’s Eurozone flash CPI to confirm that inflation is anchored near target.​ Inflation close to 2% and slightly better recent GDP/employment data support the idea that the Eurozone is avoiding recession.​ Soft manufacturing and lingering global demand concerns limit upside and keep the EUR sensitive to any renewed risk‑off moves or a hawkish tilt from the Fed.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, supported by stable banking-sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The franc’s multi‑month rally has been fuelled by safe‑haven demand, Switzerland’s low inflation, and earlier US‑Swiss trade tensions; even after some position‑unwinding in late November, CHF remains structurally strong.​ With the next major domestic catalyst being the SNB decision on 11 December, near‑term CHF moves are likely to react mainly to global risk sentiment, US rates (especially around Fed Chair Powell’s comments), and euro‑area data rather than to Swiss releases today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Pound is trading slightly firmer but generally range‑bound today, supported by softer U.S. rate expectations while UK domestic data and surveys keep a cautious macro backdrop. GBP/USD is trading in the low‑1.32s today, marginally higher on the day but off recent intraday highs, with the pair up around 4% over the past year.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

Intraday is for a slightly weaker CAD while USD/CAD oscillates around the 1.39–1.40 area, with oil stability and soft Canadian manufacturing data capping CAD strength.​ For short‑term trading, markets are watching incoming U.S. data and any Bank of Canada commentary; surprises that shift rate‑cut expectations or a break in oil’s current range are the main catalysts that could push USD/CAD cleanly away from 1.40.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to limit overall resale volumes, resulting in only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil is trading slightly firmer to flat today, with Brent around the low‑63s and WTI near the upper‑58s to low-59s per barrel, as the market weighs fresh supply disruptions in the Black Sea against ongoing concerns about global oversupply and soft demand. Price action is relatively contained, but geopolitical risks around Venezuela and Russia’s exports are keeping a modest bid under the market.​

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 02 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.