Trump said on Truth Social that all the meetings with Iran’s officials have been cancelled and exhorted the Iranian people to keep protesting because help was on its way.

For some context, the protests in Iran represent one of the most significant challenges to the Islamic Republic’s authority in decades. The unrest was ignited by a catastrophic currency collapse, with the rial plummeting to over 1.4 million per USD, and a sharp hike in fuel prices. However, the protests quickly evolved into a broad rejection of the leadership.

Just yesterday we got reports from Axios that Trump was floating the idea of outright strikes to weaken the Iranian regime, although it was also followed by less aggressive plans. Trump has also threatened to impose 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran.

It looks like the US President wants to fully take advantage of the protests to either overthrow the current regime or force them to sign deals on US terms.

Trump’s post triggered some risk aversion in the market with US stocks falling to session lows, crude oil extending gains and US dollar erasing earlier losses.

On the daily chart above, we can see that the focus switched pretty quickly from Venezuela to Iran. Crude oil futures weakened following the capture of Maduro but then started to edge higher as the protests in Iran intensified and the US promised support to Iranian people.

The price broke out of a major falling channel and rose above the key 60.50 swing level. There’s no strong resistance until the 66.00 handle now. All eyes are on the US and Iran now as a military action would trigger a strong rally in oil prices and potentially a broad wave of risk aversion.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• August New Home sales 0.800M
• October New home sales 0.737M vs 0.7200 estimate
• September new home sales was 0.738M
• The months’ supply is virtually unchanged from the September 2025 estimate of 7.9 months, and is 15.1 percent (±15.3 percent)* below the October 2024 estimate of 9.3 months.

• Median new-home price: $392,300, down 3.3% from September and 8.0% lower than October 2024, showing clear cooling in typical home prices.

• Average new-home price: $498,000, up 3.0% from September but still 4.6% below a year ago, reflecting a mix of higher-priced homes without reversing the broader downtrend.

• Price trend: Year-over-year declines in both median and average prices confirm housing disinflation is continuing.

• Macro impact: Cooling home prices reduce shelter inflation pressure, supporting lower long-term yields and giving the Fed more room to stay patient on rate cuts.

The data is from October. The last I checked, it is January. The New-home sales data is still delayed because of the lingering effects of the 2025 U.S. government shutdown and the resulting backlog at the Census Bureau. This gap is a direct result of the shutdown halting data collection and reporting operations for several weeks. To fill that void, some third-party estimates (like the MBA Builder Application Survey) have been used, but the official Census Bureau figures remain unpublished for those months.

President Trump recently announced a directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) with the goal of pushing mortgage rates lower and improving housing affordability. Rather than the Federal Reserve buying bonds, this plan uses the large balance sheets and liquidity of the two government-sponsored enterprises to create demand for MBS, which tends to raise bond prices and reduce yields, and in theory can pull mortgage rates down modestly. The directive has already contributed to mortgage rates dipping below 6% — a level not seen in several years — providing some immediate relief to borrowers and potential refinance candidates.

While this move can narrow spreads and support rate declines in the short term, its overall impact may be limited because $200 billion represents a small fraction of the much larger MBS market. The effect is likely to be more modest than the Federal Reserve’s massive bond-buying programs during the pandemic, which drove rates sharply lower. Moreover, long-term results depend on execution, timing of purchases, and broader economic conditions.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +2.7%
• CPI M/M +0.3% vs 0.3% expected
• Prior +0.3%
• Core CPI Y/Y +2.6% vs +2.7% expected
• Prior +2.6%
• Core CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior +0.2%
• US Supercore CPI M/M +0.29% vs +0.35% prior

We have a dovish surprise here as Core CPI figures came on the lower end of the forecasts. The market was pricing 52 bps of easing by year-end but that has increased to 57 bps now.

In the markets, we have of course a classic dovish reaction with US stocks rising, US dollar falling, precious metals increasing gains and US yields dropping.

The data confirms the easing seen in November when the much lower than expected numbers were taken with a pinch of salt due to shutdown related issues.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• U.S. private employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week

The pace of job gains edged up from the prior week (revised to 11.K from 11.0K last week) . These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data are added.

Below is a look at the trend since October. The values are near recent highs suggesting growth but modest growth.

The NER Pulse is an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. These estimates are based on ADP’s finely tuned, high-frequency data. The data are seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates of real-time employment trends.

The NER Pulse, including 12 weeks of historical data, publishes every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, except weeks when ADP Research publishes the monthly National Employment Report which is built on a reference week that includes the 12th day of the month.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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• Crude oil extends gains as the risk of US strikes on Iran raises the geopolitical premium
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• Japan economy minister Kiuchi defends government’s fiscal policy path
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• Japan PM Takaichi reportedly states intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house
• USD/JPY tests one-year high as yen struggles drag on in the new year

It’s been a pretty boring session in terms of news flow and market moves. The only notable news we got was early in the session when it was reported that Japanese PM Takaichi has conveyed to a ruling party executive of her intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house. That could set up for a snap election in either early or the middle of February. The next ordinary Diet session is scheduled for 23 January and that is the timing in which Takaichi is reported to be making this call. This is just a confirmation of similar reports we got on Friday,

In terms of market moves, it’s been pretty quiet all around. Crude oil has been the only outlier as tensions between US and Iran continue to increase the geopolitical risk premium and drive prices higher. Just yesterday, we got reports that Trump considered strikes on Iran and late in the evening he threatened 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran.

Other than that, not much has happened as traders await the US CPI report at 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET. Headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.7% vs 2.7% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.3% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.7% vs 2.6% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.3% vs 0.2% prior.

The Fed signalled a pause at the last policy decision by adding the line saying “in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks”.

As a reminder, the Fed projected just one rate cut this year, while the market is still betting on two, with the first one expected in June. The latest NFP report saw the unemployment rate falling to 4.4% vs 4.6% prior. The data was overall good and reaffirmed the Fed’s patient stance.

Barring another notable weakening in the labour market, inflation data is what is likely to determine the extent of Fed’s policy easing this year. In the bigger picture, the Fed’s reaction function remains dovish, so we would need strong reasons for them to consider rate hikes. For now, the worst case scenario is that they hold rates higher for longer.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• US NFIB 99.5 vs 99.2 expected
• Prior 99.0
• Full report here

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points in December to 99.5 and remained above its 52-year average of 98, as reported by the agency. The Uncertainty Index fell 7 points from November to 84, the lowest reading since June 2024.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “2025 ended with a further increase in small business optimism. While Main Street business owners remain concerned about taxes, they anticipate favorable economic conditions in 2026 due to waning cost pressures, easing labor challenges, and an increase in capital investments.”

Small business optimism rose to the highest level since 2020 in December 2024 but tumbled in the first half of 2025 due to Trump’s trade war. As Trump folded on aggressive tariffs and started lowering them to more reasonable levels, small business optimism picked up and continues to do so helped by improving economic conditions and Fed’s rate cuts.

What is the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index?

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is a monthly economic indicator that measures the health of the U.S. economy from the perspective of small business owners. It is produced by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the largest small-business advocacy group in the country.

Because small businesses employ nearly 50% of the private workforce and contribute significantly to GDP, this index is considered a leading indicator. It can signal shifts in the economy before they show up in broader government data.

While it is sometimes called a “tier-2” or “tier-3” indicator (meaning it moves the market less than the NFP or CPI), it offers unique insights that others miss:

• Hiring Predictor: The “Plans to Increase Employment” component is a highly accurate preview of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report.

• Inflation Warning: The survey tracks how many owners are planning to raise prices, which often predicts future CPI spikes.

• The “Main Street” vs. “Wall Street” Gap: Sometimes the stock market is booming while small businesses are struggling with credit and costs; this index highlights that disconnect.

• Political Sensitivity: Small business owners are highly sensitive to changes in tax law and regulation, making the index a mirror for how the business community views current government policy.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 13 January 2026

What happened in the Asia session?
Asia’s session reflected resilience with equities and gold advancing amid Fed scrutiny and geopolitical noise from Iran, pressuring oil lower and yen notably weaker, though major data releases were sparse beyond trade/GDP previews looming for China later in the week.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Markets react to ongoing U.S. political pressures on the Federal Reserve, including a Justice Department probe into Chair Jerome Powell and President Trump’s proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates, which hammered bank stocks like Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Capital One last week.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ADP Weekly Employment Change (Tentative)

Core CPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

CPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

CPI y/y (1:30 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar showed mixed performance amid ongoing market volatility following a weak 2025 and heightened scrutiny on Federal Reserve policies. Forecasts indicated potential declines against the euro, with EUR/USD testing resistance near 1.1705 before a projected rebound downward to around 1.1535, reflecting bearish short-term trends driven by selling pressure on the euro.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labour market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualised pace in Q2 2025, according to revised estimates. However, Q3 and Q4 are expected to face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions, such as the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signalling a gradual disinflation path. Updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labour market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for  27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Weekly Employment Change (Tentative)

Core CPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

CPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

CPI y/y (1:30 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAUUSD) prices surged to new record highs around $4,600 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran, as well as concerns over Federal Reserve independence following threats from the US Justice Department and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro saw limited movement today amid ongoing EU political tensions and trade developments. The EUR/JPY pair exhibited upward momentum, recovering from prior weekly losses primarily due to yen weakness, while broader euro area economic sentiment remains cautious amid external pressures like global trade shifts

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 4–5 January 2026 meeting, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40% and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision aligns with the assessment that the current stance supports medium-term price stability, as inflation edges below the 2% target while growth shows resilience amid balanced risks. Markets and commentary indicate value in holding steady, with no fixed path ahead given uncertainties in data.
• Price dynamics remain stable near target levels. Headline HICP inflation stood at 2.1% in November 2025, with projections for 1.9% in 2026 driven by base effects from energy and easing non-energy components. Services inflation persists somewhat elevated but trends toward moderation, alongside contained food pressures.
• December 2025 Eurosystem staff projections confirm headline inflation at 2.1% for 2025, declining to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 before nearing 2% in 2028. Downside risks from soft producer prices and anchored expectations offset potential upsides from geopolitics or fiscal measures.
• Euro area GDP growth remains resilient at subdued levels, with Q3 2025 at 0.3% qoq and forecasts around 1.2-1.4% for 2025-2027. Surveys signal stabilization, bolstered by public investment and external demand against softer private spending.
• The labour market stays tight overall, with unemployment steady at 6.4% through October 2025, near historic lows and solid participation. Real incomes support consumption as inflation eases, with credit conditions aiding gradual household and firm expansion.
• Business sentiment reflects caution over US policy, trade tensions, and tariffs, tempered by easing supply chains and a competitive euro. Export sectors gain a modest lift, while domestic drivers like investment build momentum.
• The Governing Council will continue to make data-dependent decisions meeting by meeting, assessing inflation outlook, underlying trends, and transmission. Both hikes and cuts remain possible based on data, avoiding preset paths amid uncertainties.
• Balance sheet normalization proceeds steadily, with APP and PEPP portfolios shrinking post-reinvestment halts, at a pace deemed suitable without market strain.

​The next meeting is on 4 to 5 February 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc advanced as a safe-haven currency, with USD/CHF dipping below 0.8000 to around 0.7990 amid heightened geopolitical risks from US-Iran tensions and domestic US scrutiny on Federal Reserve independence, compounded by softer-than-expected US payrolls; meanwhile, Switzerland’s mild inflation uptick to 0.1% YoY reinforced SNB’s dovish policy stance, limiting CHF downside despite broader USD weakness.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its 11 December 2025 monetary policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, extending the pause that began in September as the Governing Board judges that current settings are sufficient to keep inflation near, but still below, its target while avoiding an unnecessary move into negative rates.
• Recent data show that the tentative rebound in Swiss inflation has stalled, with headline CPI easing from 0.1% year‑on‑year in October to 0.0% in November and core inflation slipping to about 0.4%, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain very weak and that deflation risks, while contained, have not fully disappeared.
• The SNB’s conditional inflation forecast is likely to remain close to the September projections, with inflation still seen averaging roughly 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027 under an unchanged policy rate path, though the latest CPI prints argue for a slightly lower near‑term profile and keep open the option of renewed easing if activity or prices weaken further.
• The global backdrop has deteriorated further, as continuing U.S. tariff actions and softer external demand weigh on world trade, while uncertainty in key European and U.S. markets for Swiss exports persists, leaving the SNB cautious about the growth outlook despite Switzerland’s relatively resilient domestic demand.
• Business and labour-market sentiment in export‑oriented manufacturing remains subdued, with firms reporting pressure on margins from the still‑strong franc and softer foreign orders, although the broader economy is still expected to grow at around 1–1.5% in 2025 and unemployment only drifting up gradually from low levels.
• The SNB continues to stress its willingness to act if deflation risks re‑emerge, reiterating that it can ease policy through renewed rate cuts or targeted foreign‑exchange intervention if necessary, while also highlighting its commitment to transparent communication, including the publication of detailed minutes from recent assessments and ongoing dialogue with international partners on FX policy

The next meeting is on 19 March 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (10:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Pound Sterling (GBPUSD) exhibited resilience against the US Dollar, rebounding to near 1.3465 from early lows, driven by US Dollar weakness following criminal probes into Fed Chair Powell and contrasting UK fiscal worries. Persistent UK growth stagnation, rising gilt yields, and Bank of England easing expectations continue to cap upside.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on 18 December 2025, with the current Bank Rate standing at 4.00 per cent after being held in a close 5–4 vote at the 5 November meeting. Market pricing and analyst commentary point to a high risk of a 25‑basis‑point cut to 3.75 per cent, but this remains conditional on incoming inflation and labour‑market data, so the December note should be treated as pre‑decision guidance rather than an ex‑post summary.
• The BoE is expected to leave its quantitative tightening (QT) framework broadly unchanged through year‑end, maintaining the lower reduction pace in gilt holdings that was set earlier in 2025. Official communications still characterise the existing QT path as consistent with a restrictive stance, with policymakers stressing that balance‑sheet reduction will remain gradual and sensitive to market‑liquidity conditions.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 3.6 per cent year‑on‑year in October 2025, down from 3.8 per cent in September, helped by softer energy and goods prices, though it remains almost twice the 2 per cent target. Underlying inflation pressures, particularly in services, have continued to moderate only slowly, so the MPC’s central projection still envisages inflation moving closer to, but not yet reaching, 3 per cent over the course of 2026, contingent on further normalisation in energy and wage dynamics.
• UK economic activity remains weak heading into the December meeting, with the labour market showing further signs of slackening. The unemployment rate has risen toward just above 5 per cent on the latest three‑month figures to October, while overall regular pay growth has slowed to around the mid‑4 per cent range, reinforcing the view that domestic cost pressures are gradually easing.
• External conditions continue to cloud the outlook, with fragile global growth and fluctuating commodity prices contributing to bouts of financial‑market volatility. The MPC has highlighted that renewed global energy or food price shocks could temporarily slow the pace of disinflation, but such risks are currently judged unlikely to derail the medium‑term downward trajectory for inflation if domestic demand stays subdued.
• The balance of risks around the inflation outlook remains finely poised. Downside risks are linked to persistently weak domestic demand and rising unemployment, while upside risks come from still‑elevated inflation expectations, sticky services inflation, and the possibility that structural changes in the labour market leave less slack than conventional indicators suggest.
• Overall, the MPC’s stance going into December is restrictive but increasingly open to a gradual easing cycle, with any rate cuts expected to be measured and data‑dependent. Policymakers have reiterated that the Bank Rate will need to stay in restrictive territory until they are confident inflation is on a sustainable path back to the 2 per cent target, and they have signalled that the profile of cuts, once started, is likely to be shallow rather than rapid.
• The next meeting is on 5 February 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar exhibited resilience, rebounding slightly against a softening US Dollar driven by Fed policy worries and elevated oil prices amid geopolitical risks, following a volatile start to the year with a prolonged losing streak tied to Venezuelan oil threats and tepid economic data; traders now watch labor reports and BoC cues for sustained momentum, with USD/CAD hovering around 1.3860-1.3876.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council left the target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at its 10 December 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations and signalling that the earlier easing cycle has likely concluded. The Bank noted that while global tariff tensions and trade uncertainty persist, the external backdrop has stabilised somewhat, reducing the need for additional insurance cuts even as world trade remains fragile.
• The Council acknowledged that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and tariffs continues to weigh on business sentiment, but recent data show Canadian manufacturing and goods exports holding up better than anticipated. Surveys cited by the Bank suggest export order books have stopped deteriorating, with firms reporting some rebuilding of backlogs despite still‑cautious capital spending plans.
• Canada’s economy rebounded more strongly than expected in the third quarter, with real GDP expanding at an annualised pace of about 2.6% after a 1.8% contraction in Q2, largely on the back of higher crude exports and government spending. Monthly data show output rising 0.2% in September, though flash estimates point to a softer start to Q4 as some sectors give back earlier gains.
• Service sector activity has firmed, with indicators showing the services PMI back above the 50 threshold and broadening gains in business and professional services. However, consumer-facing categories remain mixed, as still‑elevated price levels and only modest real income growth keep a lid on discretionary spending even as tourism and technology‑related services expand.
• Housing markets have continued to stabilise, with national resale activity and prices edging higher through the autumn alongside the earlier decline in borrowing costs. The Bank noted that while some major urban centres are seeing renewed price pressures, tighter underwriting standards and still‑high affordability constraints are expected to cap the pace of any rebound.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 2.2% year over year in October and is estimated to have remained near that rate in November, keeping it slightly above the 2% target but comfortably within the 1%–3% control range. Core measures have drifted lower, with CPI‑median and CPI‑trim around 3% or below, reinforcing the assessment that underlying price pressures are gradually moderating even as gasoline and some shelter components remain volatile.
• The Governing Council reiterated that the current policy rate is “about the right level” to keep inflation close to target while supporting the economy through a period of structural adjustment, and it signalled a shift away from near‑term easing expectations. While the Bank did not rule out future adjustments, officials stressed that, barring a material downside surprise to growth or inflation, further rate cuts are unlikely before 2026, and attention is now focused on the durability of the recovery and the evolution of core inflation.
• The next meeting is on 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices reached a one-month high driven by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on goods from countries doing business with Iran, boosting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) near $60 per barrel and Brent below $64. Geopolitical tensions, including escalating protests in Iran and a record high in Iranian oil stored on water, added supply risk premiums, while Venezuela’s US-backed government aims to ramp up production amid oversupply concerns.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 13 January 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 98.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.07
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1702

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1616

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1749

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 183.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 182.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 184.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8707

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8642
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8746
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3489

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3392
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3549
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 211.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 210.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 213.01
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.7966

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7907
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8017
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 157.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 155.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 158.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                     

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3800

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3684

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3898

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.672

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.6611

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6765

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5770

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5690

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5820

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 48,844.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 48,371.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,371.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 24,687.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 24,203.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,501.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,892.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,7823.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,978.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 92,296.52

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 89,492.85

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 94,836.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,051.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 2,909.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,147.55
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 58.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 56.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 60.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high  resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,549.86

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,500.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,630.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Tuesday 13th January 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Push Higher Despite Fed Investigation – Nasdaq up 0.25%
US equity markets extended their advance overnight, with stocks managing to edge higher despite ongoing market concerns surrounding the announced criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones rose 0.17% to close at 49,590, while the S&P 500 added 0.16% to finish at 6,977. The Nasdaq outperformed modestly, gaining 0.26% to end the session at 23,733. In rates markets, Treasury yields pushed slightly higher as investors continued to weigh inflation risks and the implications of a potentially less independent Federal Reserve. The US 2-year yield edged up 0.2 basis points to 3.535%, while the benchmark 10-year yield rose 1.0 basis point to 4.175%. Despite the move higher in yields, the US dollar weakened, with the Dollar Index slipping 0.26% to 98.88 against the major currencies. Commodities were broadly firmer. Oil prices climbed to fresh seven-week highs as concerns around Iranian exports continued to support the market. Brent advanced 1.41% to $64.23 per barrel, while WTI rose 0.64% to $59.50. Gold was once again the standout performer, surging 1.95% to a fresh record high close of $4,597.51 as investors continued to seek havens amid market uncertainty.

Gold Continues to Fly Higher – New Record Above $4,600
Gold surged over 2% in trading yesterday to record yet another all-time high, as it continued to trade in 2026 in a very similar manner to 2025. The world’s favourite (although silver is catching up quickly!) precious metal has already gained over 7% in the first couple of weeks of the new year, and many commentators are calling for further gains into the first couple of quarters of 2026. There is no doubt that some of the more traditional factors have contributed to the moves that we have seen in recent sessions – i.e. geopolitical concerns – and traders will now be looking to see if gold continues to see moves higher if those concerns abate, or if we do see more upward trajectory even in strong ‘risk-on’ environments later in the year. For now, though, traders are favouring going with the trend, which is certainly pointing upwards. Short-term resistance will now sit at the overnight high of $4,629.94, with initial support at yesterday’s low of $4,512.37 and longer-term support at the daily chart trendline at $4,352.35.

US Inflation Data in Focus for Markets Today
The macro calendar remains relatively quiet through the initial part of the trading day today; however, things will start to pick up as we progress through the sessions and hit the major economic event of the week early in the New York day. There is nothing of note again on the agenda in the Asian session; however, a scheduled speech from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey midway through the London day could see an increase in volatility for UK markets. The New York session is expected to be the busiest of the day again, with key US inflation data due out. The first CPI prints of 2026 are due out shortly after the open, with the market expecting both the headline month-on-month number and the core month-on-month number to show a 0.3% increase, and the year-on-year data to show a 2.7% increase again, still well above where the Fed would like to see it. US New Home Sales data is also due out later in the session; however, expect the inflation numbers and any further geopolitical updates to dominate market sentiment.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 13/01/26 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

These forecasts are produced by investment banks and research firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Barclays and so on.

Core CPI Y/Y

• 2.9% (5%)
• 2.8% (28%)
• 2.7% (44%) – consensus
• 2.6% (23%)

Core CPI M/M

• 0.5% (4%)
• 0.4% (26%)
• 0.3% (52%) – consensus
• 0.2% (16%)
• 0.1% (2%)

The market will focus on the Core figures. We can see that there’s quite a wide range of estimates, so any deviation from the consensus should trigger a market reaction. The bigger the deviation, the strongest the reaction will be.

At this point, whatever the data is going to show, the Fed is not going to do anything in January. The question now is whether the Fed is going to cut more or less that the current market pricing of two cuts by the end of the year. Traders are expecting the first cut to come in June once Fed Chair Powell’s term ends, and then another one in December.

We recently got some mixed US data, but in general it’s been leaning towards renewed strength. If the data continues to strengthen, we should get a hawkish repricing, at least to reflect the Fed’s baseline projection of one cut in 2026. Today’s data might not change much in the bigger picture unless we get big deviations from the consensus.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 13 January 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. Core CPI (expected at 2.7% YoY, up slightly from prior 2.6%), New Home Sales (forecast around 758K units), and ADP Employment Change, alongside UK GDP data featuring Core Employment metrics that crossed into early U.S. hours. No actual results were available by late evening GMT, but previews highlighted a focus on persistent inflation pressures amid Fed policy debates and a softening labor market.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a high-impact US CPI report at 1:30 AM GMT alongside housing data and Fed speeches, potentially dictating USD strength and global risk flows into Tokyo open, while UK GDP at 7:00 AM GMT tests sterling recovery; Indian equities eye continued rebound amid trade optimism, but caution prevails on geopolitical tensions and FII outflows, with no standout Asia-specific prints but supportive FX trends for select EM currencies.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ADP Weekly Employment Change (Tentative)

Core CPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

CPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

CPI y/y (1:30 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar experienced downward pressure amid concerns over Federal Reserve independence following a Department of Justice subpoena and President Trump’s push for lower interest rates, contributing to a weakening of the Dollar Index below its 200-day moving average around 98.70-98.80. Key currency pairs reflected this trend, with the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) testing resistance near 0.6735 before potential declines below 0.6625, signaling short-term USD strength against the AUD but broader reversal risks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path. Updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Weekly Employment Change (Tentative)

Core CPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

CPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

CPI y/y (1:30 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAUUSD) markets opened with momentum from record highs above $4,600 achieved the prior day, fueled by dollar weakness tied to Fed independence fears, persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East and beyond, and supportive ETF flows despite looming US data releases. While short-term corrections loom due to profit-taking and index rebalancing, the path of least resistance points upward, with forecasts ranging from stabilization near $4,500 to ambitious targets like $5,000, reflecting a volatile yet bullish 2026 start.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) showed modest gains against the US Dollar, trading around 0.6699-0.6700, rebounding from recent lows amid a weakening USD driven by Federal Reserve scrutiny. This followed a strong start to 2026, with AUD/USD hitting 15-month highs near 0.6767 earlier in the month before a slight correction.

​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November 2025 policy meeting, adopting a cautious tone amid a surprise uptick in inflation data for the September quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive pause since the 25 basis point cut in August. The Board attributed some of the inflation rise to temporary factors like higher petrol prices and council rates, but noted signs of more persistent pressures from consumer demand.​
• Policymakers emphasized vigilance on inflation, with trimmed mean inflation expected to remain elevated in the near term before nearing the 2–3% target midpoint by mid-2027. Recent data showed underlying inflation staying above target until at least the second half of 2026, prompting upward revisions to forecasts. Capacity pressures are seen as slightly more pronounced than previously assessed, delaying any easing.
• Headline CPI for the September quarter exceeded expectations, driven partly by temporary items, while underlying measures signal ongoing stickiness. The shift to monthly CPI reporting, with the first full edition in November 2025, will enhance real-time inflation monitoring. Housing and services remain resilient contributors to price pressures.
• Domestic demand shows firmness in services alongside below-trend growth elsewhere, with capacity pressures not expected to ease significantly. The labor market is gradually softening, with unemployment projected to stabilize around 4.4%, though wage growth and productivity dynamics keep unit labor costs a concern. Household spending faces headwinds from high borrowing costs.​
• Global risks include geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility, set against modestly revised-up world growth outlooks. The Board describes its policy as mildly restrictive and data-dependent, balancing inflation control with employment goals. No rate hike was considered despite the inflation surprise.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive to address lingering price stability risks amid household and global vulnerabilities. Communications reaffirm the dual mandate of 2–3% inflation and full employment, with readiness to adjust based on incoming data.​
• Market expectations point to the cash rate holding through early 2026, with a possible modest cut to 3.3% mid-year if inflation eases as forecast. The new monthly CPI data will be key for timely insights.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 2 to 3 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar remains under pressure, hovering near 0.5740 in the NZD/USD pair as bearish momentum persists from late last week, with analysts forecasting a potential drop below 0.5375 after testing resistance around 0.5755. USD strength, fueled by upcoming US jobs data and Fed policy signals, continues to dominate, outweighing New Zealand’s improving sentiment indicators like ANZ consumer confidence, while the RBNZ’s likely further rate cuts to 2.25% limit upside potential.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen (USDJPY) struggles near one-year lows versus the USD, hovering around 157.75-158.10 amid consolidation in a daily uptrend, buoyed modestly by safe-haven flows from geopolitical risks like Japan-China tensions but weighed down by speculation of a snap election under PM Takaichi and BoJ hesitation on aggressive rate hikes despite intervention threats near 160. USD weakness from Fed independence concerns offers temporary relief, yet yen bulls remain hesitant without stronger BoJ signals or follow-through buying, raising downside risks if the political and policy status quo persists.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan will meet on 18–19 December with markets almost fully pricing a 25-basis-point hike, which would raise the short-term policy rate from 0.50% to around 0.75%, as the bank moves further away from its ultra-loose stance while stressing that any tightening will remain gradual and data-dependent.
• The BOJ is expected to continue guiding the uncollateralized overnight call rate in a narrow band around the new policy rate, near 0.75%, while signaling that the pace and timing of any additional hikes will depend on how past increases affect bank lending, corporate financing conditions, and overall economic activity.
• The quarterly path of JGB purchases remains on a pre-announced, gradual taper: outright purchases are being reduced by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, then by roughly ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, with the bank still aiming for JGB purchases to settle near ¥2 trillion in Q1 2027 and retaining flexibility to adjust the pace if market functioning or yield volatility deteriorate.
• Japan’s economy has softened in the near term, with Q3 2025 GDP contracting at an annualized rate of approximately 2.3%, as weaker residential investment and external demand weighed on activity. Meanwhile, business sentiment in manufacturing has recently improved to a roughly four-year high.
• Core consumer inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to around 3.0% year-on-year in October, up from 2.9% in September and remaining above the BOJ’s 2% target, while the “core-core” measure excluding both fresh food and energy rose to about 3.1%, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures.
• In the very near term, some input-cost pressures are easing as earlier import price surges fade, but services inflation linked to labor shortages, along with steady wage gains, continues to support broader price momentum; firms’ and households’ medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored slightly above 2%, keeping short-term inflation risks tilted to the upside.
• For the coming quarters, the BOJ assesses that real growth will likely run below potential as the economy digests tighter financial conditions and past yen depreciation. However, accommodative real rates, positive real wage growth, and improving corporate sentiment are expected to help sustain a modest recovery in private consumption and business investment.
• Over the medium term, as overseas demand stabilizes and domestic labor markets remain tight, the BOJ expects wage settlements and inflation expectations to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory around or slightly above 2%, providing room for further cautious rate normalization as long as financial conditions remain supportive and the recovery is not derailed.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 22 to 23 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

The oil market balanced modest price recovery around $58/bbl for WTI against persistent oversupply pressures from record U.S. production, high global inventories, and anticipated OPEC+ restraint, while U.S.-led interventions in Venezuela and Iran protests introduced volatility risks; forecasts lean bearish for 2026 with supply growth outstripping demand, though near-term support holds if no major disruptions occur.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 13 January 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 3.12%, Shanghai Composite down 0.03%, Hang Seng up 1.00% ASX up 0.88%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,606.05 (+0.19%), Silver at $85.502 (+0.50%), Brent Oil at $64.11 (+0.39%), WTI Oil at $59.77 (+0.76%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.177, UK 10-year yield at 4.3720, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8014

News & Data:

• (EUR) Sentix Investor Confidence -1.8 to -5.1 expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets were trading mostly higher on Tuesday, extending the recent global equity rally despite mixed cues from Wall Street overnight. Gains were led by Japan and Hong Kong, supported by strength in mining and technology stocks, as investors remained optimistic about the outlook for interest rates. Asian markets had closed mostly higher on Monday.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, though markets continue to price in at least one quarter-point rate cut in the coming months.

In Australia, the stock market advanced sharply, building on gains from the previous session. The S&P/ASX 200 index climbed near the 8,850 level, supported by strong buying in financial and mining stocks, which offset weakness in energy shares. Major miners such as BHP Group and Rio Tinto posted solid gains, while the big four banks also traded nearly 1 percent higher. Gold miners were broadly higher, while oil stocks lagged.

Economic data showed consumer sentiment in Australia weakened further in January, reflecting lingering uncertainty around interest rate expectations. The Australian dollar was trading around $0.671.

Japanese markets surged, with the Nikkei 225 jumping over 3 percent, driven by heavy buying in technology, banking, and export-oriented stocks. Major gains were seen in technology names and automakers, while financial stocks also posted strong advances.

Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong led regional gains, while most other markets traded moderately higher. On Wall Street, U.S. stocks recovered from early losses to close at record highs, while European markets ended the day mixed. Oil prices edged higher amid concerns over potential supply disruptions.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Core CPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD CPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD CPI y/y

The post Tuesday 13th January 2026: Asian Markets Rise on Rate-Cut Optimism, Japan and Australia Lead Gains first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.