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Japan’s exports rose for a second straight month in October, signalling a partial recovery after recent tariff-driven weakness in U.S. demand.

• Total shipments increased 3.6% year-on-year, beating expectations for a 1.1% rise, though exports to the United States still fell 3.1%.
• Shipments to China grew 2.1%, helping offset the drag from the U.S. market.

Imports also surprised to the upside, rising 0.7% versus expectations for a decline, leaving Japan with a smaller-than-forecast trade deficit of ¥231.8 billion.

The improvement comes after Japan’s Q3 GDP contracted for the first time in six quarters, largely due to U.S. tariffs that hit export volumes. A revised trade deal implemented in September lowered U.S. tariffs to a baseline 15%, down from earlier punitive rates of 25–27.5%, offering some relief to manufacturers. Even so, analysts warn U.S.-bound shipments may stay soft as Japanese automakers pass more of their tariff costs on to American consumers.

Solid domestic demand — driven by capital spending and firm private consumption — supported Q3 growth, but economists caution that a prolonged export downturn could undermine Japan’s fragile recovery.

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More on the data here:

• Japan exports beat expectations in October as Asia and EU demand pick up

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The European Union is weighing new ways to invest directly in Australia’s critical resources sector, with Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič saying Brussels is exploring options ranging from equity stakes to long-term offtake agreements and joint investments.

Šefčovič discussed the proposals with Australia’s resources minister during meetings this week, underscoring Europe’s push to secure stable supplies of key minerals needed for its clean-energy and industrial strategies. The comments come amid renewed momentum in efforts to revive the Australia–EU trade deal, which stalled last year.

Šefčovič said he expects negotiations to resume with “another round of talks early next year,” signalling that both sides see strategic value in deepening cooperation across trade, energy security and critical minerals.

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EU interest in structured investment and offtake could strengthen funding pipelines for Australian critical-minerals projects, supporting long-term supply security and adding upside for sector sentiment.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan preliminary manufacturing PMI for November 48.8, contracted for a fifth month

• prior 48.2

Some of sub-indexes:

• factory output showed improvement, climbing to a four-month high, suggesting that the business environment for manufacturers is edging towards stabilisation
• new orders continued to decline, though at a slower rate than in October, reflecting subdued domestic and global demand
• overseas demand remained particularly weak, with new export orders falling at the fastest pace in three months.

Services 53.1

• prior 53.1
• new businesses in the service sector grew at a faster pace, driven by solid domestic demand

Composite 52.0, eighth straight month of expansion

• prior 51.5

The report from S&P Global Market Intelligence highlights:

• “inflation remains a key concern”
• inflationary pressures intensified with input costs rising at the fastest pace in six months on a composite basis, largely attributed to higher labour and raw material costs
• firms raised their selling prices to secure profit margins, although the pace of output inflation slowed from October.
• “business confidence regarding future output improved to the highest level since January”
• strongest employment growth since June

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, prompting the government to sharply upgrade its outlook for next year.

• Q3 GDP expanded 4.2% year-on-year, beating the Reuters poll of 4.0% and far above the earlier 2.9% advance estimate.
• Quarter-on-quarter growth rose 2.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Buoyed by stronger global demand and better-than-expected growth among major trading partners, the Ministry of Trade and Industry lifted its 2025 GDP forecast to around 4.0%, up from the earlier 1.5%–2.5% range.

• Growth for 2026 is projected at 1.0%–3.0%.

However, officials warned that manufacturing and trade-related services are likely to expand at a slower pace in 2026, reflecting a more moderate global cycle. Enterprise Singapore narrowed its forecast for 2025 non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to around +2.5%, with 2026 NODX expected to grow 0.0% to +2.0%.

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The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept policy unchanged in October, citing resilient growth despite U.S. tariffs. While Singapore faces a 10% U.S. tariff on its exports—below the rates imposed on its regional peers—sector-specific levies, including a potential 100% tariff on branded pharmaceuticals, remain a key risk. Authorities have delayed implementation of the drug tariff to allow time for negotiation.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK consumer confidence slipped in November as households brace for potentially tough measures in next week’s budget, according to the latest GfK survey. The headline index fell to -19 from -17, slightly weaker than the Reuters poll expectation of -18 and matching the lowest reading since May.

While sentiment remains notably above April’s sharp drop to -23, when household bills jumped and U.S. tariffs pushed up import costs, GfK described November’s result as “bleak,” with consumers expecting difficult news from Chancellor Rachel Reeves. The government is widely expected to face a sizeable fiscal gap, with analysts estimating £20–30 billion in required tax increases following softer growth forecasts, higher borrowing costs and a reversal of welfare cuts.

The survey also recorded a three-point decline in the major-purchase index, a worrying signal for retailers ahead of Black Friday and the broader Christmas trading season.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s trade data for October came in stronger than expected, with exports rising 3.6% year-on-year, comfortably beating forecasts for a 1.1% gain, according to Ministry of Finance figures. Imports also surprised to the upside, edging 0.7% higher versus expectations for a small decline. The trade deficit narrowed to ¥231.8 billion, smaller than the ¥280.1 billion projected in the poll.

The export recovery was led by firm demand from Asia, where shipments increased 4.2%, including a 2.1% rise in exports to China.

• Exports to the EU also surged 9.2%.
• By contrast, shipments to the United States fell 3.1%, suggesting softer U.S. goods demand.

The stronger trade performance offers a modest cushion for Japan’s economy as policymakers weigh the timing of the next Bank of Japan rate hike and assess whether external demand can offset sluggish domestic consumption.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese finance minister Katayama:

• Won’t comment on forex levels
• Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals
• Recently seeing one-sided, very rapid moves
• Will take appropriate action based on U.S-Japan forex agreement
• FX intervention is an option as it is mentioned in Japan-US agreement in September
• Will issue govt debt to fund part of stimulus package as needed

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan November Core CPI 3.0%

• expected 3.0%, prior 2.9%

Headline reads the same, comes in at 3.0%

• expected 3.0%, prior 2.9%

The core-core rate, ie excluding food and energy 3.1%

• expected 3.1%, prior 3.0%

Yen is little changed, USD/JPY circa 157.46.

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If you were looking for data today to support a December rate hike from the Bank of Japan this will help you out. All 3 at 3% or higher. And, you’re not alone:

• BOJ likely to hike in December as yen slide boosts inflation risk, Reuters poll shows

More here:

• Recap – Japan readies ¥21.3tn (USD 135bn) stimulus, largest since Covid

That’s gotta feed inflation further, right?

As for the yen:

• Yen could hit 160, but rising chance of intervention, economist warns

But we might not have to wait ’til 160:

• Japan trying some verbal yen intervention after the close, can’t blame ’em for trying

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan is preparing a ¥21.3 trillion ($135bn) stimulus package — its largest since the Covid era — to cushion households from persistent inflation, according to a draft seen by Reuters. The plan underscores Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s aggressive fiscal stance but comes as markets grow uneasy about the heavy borrowing required to fund her agenda.

Just recapping the various dibbles of info we’ve received on this so far this week.

The package includes ¥17.7 trillion in general spending and ¥2.7 trillion in tax cuts, financed partly by stronger tax revenues and a significant increase in government bond issuance. Sources say the bond component will exceed last year’s ¥6.69 trillion.

When private-sector leverage is included, the total package swells to ¥42.8 trillion. Key allocations include ¥11.7 trillion for cost-of-living relief and consumption support, and ¥7.2 trillion for crisis-response measures and economic security sectors. Measures reportedly include ¥20,000 per child in extra family payments, income tax breaks, and cuts to gasoline tax.

The cabinet aims to approve the stimulus on Friday, with a supplementary budget expected by late November. Takaichi has pledged large-scale support and investment in AI, chips and shipbuilding since taking office — ambitions that have contributed to recent weakness in the yen and a sell-off in JGBs.

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If you like the idea of buying the yen on the back of Japanese intervention, how successful do you think the intervention will be given this sort a fundamental backdrop? I suspect the answer will be ‘not very’.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

President Donald Trump has widened tariff relief for Brazilian food imports, reversing part of the steep trade penalties he imposed earlier this year and aiming to ease pressure on U.S. consumers frustrated by high grocery bills.

An executive order signed Thursday exempts dozens of staple food items from a 40% tariff that had applied to Brazilian goods since the spring. Trump had already rolled back a separate 10% duty last week, but this latest move retroactively eliminates the higher levy from November 13, expanding access to cheaper imports of coffee, orange juice and beef, all categories where prices have hit records due to ongoing shortages.

The reversal marks a diplomatic win for Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whose government has pushed for months to unwind Trump’s tariffs. Those duties, raised to 50% in some cases, were originally designed to punish Brazil over the prosecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally, for alleged coup-related offences.

High-level discussions between Washington and Brasília resumed after Trump and Lula briefly crossed paths in New York in September, followed by a longer meeting in Malaysia last month. Lula has repeatedly noted that Brazil typically runs a trade deficit with the U.S., arguing that the punitive tariffs were disproportionate. Trump’s latest concessions bring both sides closer to what Lula has called a “definitive solution.”

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Tariff relief could ease U.S. food inflation at the margin while boosting Brazilian agricultural exports, supporting BRL sentiment and improving near-term trade dynamics between Washington and Brasília.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• September US non-farm payrolls +119K vs +50K expected
• US Initial jobless claims 220K vs 230K estimate
• November Philly Fed business index -1.7 vs +2.0 expected
• Canada October produce price index +1.5% vs +0.3% expected
• Eurozone November flash consumer confidence -14.2 vs -14.0 expected
• Fed’s Goolsbee: Inflation seems to have stalled
• Fed’s Hammack: Cutting rates risks prolonging high inflation
• Fed’s Cook: Not all market volatility is problematic
• Zelenskyy: Agreed to work on the US draft plan to end the war
• China’s Wang: Raised concerns on tariffs, export control and investment restrictions
• What Walmart earnings tell us about the state of the US consumer

Markets:

• S&P 500 down 1.55%
• Nasdaq Comp down 2.2%
• WTI crude oil down 17-cents to $59.14
• Gold down $5 to $4075
• US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 4.10%
• GBP leads, AUD lags

This stock market couldn’t rally on a blockbuster AI model and great Nvidia earnings.

If the bulls were to draw up a best-case scenario at the start of the week it would certainly include:

1. Great earnings from Nvidia
2. Gemini 3 being the blockbuster model that Google’s hype machine was hinting at

Both delivered and Google tossed in a new image model today too. It all has the AI space buzzing once again.

If addition, you toss in higher US unemployment (which leaves the door open to further rate cuts) and upbeat comments on consumer spending ahead of the holidays from Walmart.

If anything, I’m struggling to find any bearish developments and we remain in the strongest seasonal period of the year.

Yet we’ve just had a brutal day in equity markets.The Nasdaq went from +2% to -2.2% while Nvidia turned a 6% gain into a 3% loss. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 touched the lowest since Sept 10.

If there’s any consolation it’s that the pain seems to be contained to equities as Treasury yields have just stepped down 4-5 bps points, gold/oil are flat and the FX market is range bound. Perhaps one spot to watch is AUD/USD as it’s inching towards the July/August lows.

That hints that the problems are more about AI and stock market valuations than the real economy. The risk is that for a big part of the economy, the stock market is the economy as it holds up high end spending.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (November 2025) 51.6, a nice jump back into expansion

• prior 49.7

Services 52.7

• prior 52.5

Composite 52.6

• prior 52.1

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Little impact on the AUD. The currency fell alongside the broad risk sell off on Thursday, US time.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.