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Australian labour market report

Unemployment Rate 4.5% – an ugly result that’ll reignite expectations for an RBA rate cut on November 4.

• expected 4.3%, prior 4.2%

Employment Change +14.9K

• expected +17K, prior -5.4K

Participation Rate 67.0%, a higher result will take a little of the sting out of the jump in unemployment

• expected 66.8%, prior 66.8%

Part-Time Employment +6.2K

• prior +35.5K

Full-Time Employment +8.7K

• prior -40.9K

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Earlier news on oil:

• ICYMI: Trump says India will stop buying Russian oil, vows to pressure China next

Bessent prodding Japan now.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

September 2025 Machinery Orders -0.9% m/m

• expected +0.5%, prior -4.6%

+1.6% y/y

• expected +4.8%, prior +4.9%

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese politics is impacting the yen and broader financial markets:

• Japan’s markets unwind Abenomics “2” trades as Komeito exit fuels political uncertainty
• Market expectations for Japan to remain under a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) government led by Sanae Takaichi, an advocate of Abenomics, have faded sharply, prompting traders to unwind weak-yen, long-equity, and bond positions.

Takaichi will hold a meeting with a minor party today, Ishin:

• 0600 GMT / 0200 US Eastern time

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Barclays expects U.S. economic growth to average around 2% quarter-on-quarter between the third quarter of 2025 and the third quarter of 2026, reflecting a steady but moderating expansion as fiscal stimulus fades and trade headwinds persist.

The bank said recently imposed tariffs will act as a “slow burn” on activity, with most firms expected to pass on higher import costs gradually rather than in an immediate price surge. That could cushion near-term inflation readings but prolong pressure on corporate margins.

Barclays also warned that the main downside risks to its outlook stem from softer consumer spending and a potential uptick in unemployment, which could weigh on confidence and discretionary demand heading into 2026.

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Barclays’ tempered 2% growth forecast supports expectations of a soft landing and steady Fed policy in 2026. The bank’s warning on consumer fatigue and unemployment could dampen equity optimism if labour data weakens further.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Trump administration is preparing to cut more than 10,000 federal jobs during the ongoing government shutdown, White House budget director Russell Vought said.

CNBC with the info.

Vought said the goal is to “shutter the bureaucracy,” targeting agencies and programs viewed as unnecessary. Layoff notices, known as reduction-in-force (RIF) letters, have already been sent to thousands of government employees, with more expected.

Vought also said he intends to shut down the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau within “two or three months,” arguing the agency has been politically weaponized. Other potential targets include Department of Energy climate programs, environmental justice efforts at the EPA, and the Commerce Department’s Minority Business Development Agency.

Shortly after his comments, a federal judge issued a temporary restraining order halting the layoffs, ruling the actions violated federal law. The shutdown, now entering its third week, has left federal employees unpaid, while President Trump ordered continued pay for active-duty military through remaining Defense Department funds.

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The plan to slash federal jobs underscores Trump’s aggressive cost-cutting stance, heightening political uncertainty and risking slower government services. Markets may interpret the move as both fiscally deflationary and politically destabilizing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NZ FP +0.3% m/m in September 2025

• prior +0.3%
• +5.0% is the y/y

Kiwi is little changed. Circa 0.5720.

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The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New Zealand.

• calculated and published monthly by Statistics New Zealand
• FPI makes up around 19% of the kiwi CPI
• the FPI tracks the prices of a basket of food items that represent the typical spending patterns of New Zealand households
• the FPI is an important indicator of inflation in New Zealand, as food prices account for a significant portion of household expenditure

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

more to come

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Expectations I had seen centred on:

• Headline crude -0.3 mn barrels
• Distillates -0.3 mn bbls
• Gasoline -0.1 mn

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This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

• It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies
• The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

• Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies
• Whereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week’s levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.
• the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan expects U.S.–China trade tensions to ease somewhat when President Trump and Chinese President Xi meet at the October 31 to November 1 APEC summit in South Korea, but warns that not all issues will be resolved.

Analyst Abiel Reinhart said the most probable outcome is a pause on any new 100% tariffs and more flexible export-control rules to prevent a full-scale embargo. However, he cautioned that escalation could occur in the lead-up to the meeting.

If no truce is reached and proposed measures proceed, Reinhart warned, it could amount to an effective U.S. embargo on Chinese exports, disrupt American manufacturing, intensify Washington’s curbs on China’s chip sector, and provoke fresh limits on U.S. exports to China.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Not listed in the event agenda is a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent, at the CFA Society Australia Investment Conference 2025:

• 0850 local time
• 2250 GMT
• 1750 US Eastern time

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock spoke earlier:

• RBA Gov Bullock: Data giving us time to think whether there is more easing to come or not

And yesterday we had Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter:

• said recent data showed Q3 inflation is a touch print hotter than forecast, pointing to a still-tight economy even as job growth slows. Speaking at a Citi event, she flagged sluggish productivity as a structural constraint that lowers Australia’s growth and wage “speed limits.” Her comments tempered expectations of near-term rate cuts, underscoring the RBA’s cautious approach as inflation risks remain sticky.

Also from Australia today is the September Labour Market report. A slight softening in the jobs market is expected to be reflected in a minor tick higher in the unemployment rate.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• US stock markets sizzle at the open, slump midday and then recover to gains
• Gold has the spotlight right now but oil will take it again before long
• Crude oil settles at $58.27
• UK’s Reeves shrugs off ‘scaremongering’ tips higher taxes on the wealthy
• Beige Book shows now signs of US acceleration
• Fed’s Waller: AI is moving so fast we’ll see job losses before new jobs
• More Fed’s Miran: AI investment could lead to a higher neutral rate
• European indices close mixed. US stocks are higher. Gold at a new record.
• Treas Sec Bessent: As long as Argentina enacts sound policy, they will have U.S. support
• ECB’s Nagel: German economy is improving
• Fed’s Miran: Two more rate cuts this year sounds realistic
• Can Trump tolerate a trade war that would roil the stock market?
• Bessent: If China wants to be an unreliable partner for the world we will need to decouple
• USTR’s Greer: China’s actions are a complete repudation of recent US-China agreements
• Hassett: There is a generous bailout coming for farmers when the shutdown ends
• Bessent: US-Canada trade talks back on track
• Canada August wholesale trade -1.2% vs -1.3% expected
• NY Manufacturing index for August 10.7 vs -1.40 estimate
• The USD is lower to start the NA trading session. What are the technicals telling traders?
• investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar drops while equities jump, gold hits $4,200

The USD is ending the US session, the way it started the session – with the USD lower. The biggest mover was the GBPUSD with a rise of 0.52%. The dollar fell -0.37% vs the JPY, -0.46% vs the CHF and -0.31% vs the AUD. The USD was modestly higher vs the CAD (by 0.05%).

The dollar decline was additional follow through selling after the decline yesterday on the back of Fed Chair Powell focusing on potential weakness on employment and that the Fed may look to stop the balance sheet run off (dovish). The market expects a November and December cut.

Treasury Secretary Bessent emphasized that the U.S. wants to help China, not hurt it, but warned that China’s own economic coercion will ultimately damage its economy the most. He said there will be multiple meetings this week on China’s new trade restrictions and highlighted that if China continues to act as an unreliable global partner, the U.S. may have to decouple, though he reiterated that Washington prefers to de-risk, not decouple.

Bessent criticized China’s purchases of Russian oil, arguing they fuel Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, and called for European allies to align with U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods tied to Russian energy. He noted substantial U.S.–China communications in recent days, with President Trump still planning to meet President Xi in South Korea. Bessent framed tariffs as surcharges, not taxes, saying they can be borne by either exporter or importer, and justified the administration’s emergency powers as essential to protect the U.S. economy amid Chinese provocations.

He added that the U.S. offered to lift fentanyl-related tariffs under the IEEPA if China resolves the fentanyl issue for six months, but cautioned that Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans remain in place until Washington acts first. Overall, Bessent’s remarks reflected a firm but conditional approach — maintaining economic pressure on China while signaling a path toward de-escalation if progress is made on key issues like fentanyl and trade discipline.

Fed, Fed’s Miran (recent Trump nominee and dove) struck a distinctly dovish tone (not surprising), saying that two more rate cuts this year “sound realistic” and are already fully priced in by markets. He noted that recent developments — including the government shutdown and renewed U.S.–China tensions — have made rate cuts more urgent, as these shocks pose new downside risks to the economy.

Miran argued that current Fed policy is more restrictive than it appears, since the neutral rate has fallen amid shifts from immigration, AI investment, and other structural changes. While AI could eventually raise the neutral rate, he said for now, policy is tighter than many assume. He also emphasized that his disagreement with colleagues is about the pace of easing, not the ultimate destination for rates.

On inflation, Miran expressed confidence that price pressures are easing, especially in housing, and said he places less emphasis on gradual policy adjustments.

The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book reported that overall U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks, with most districts describing growth as modest or flat and some noting early signs of softening demand. Employment remained stable, though several districts highlighted increasing layoffs and hiring freezes, particularly in industries facing weaker demand or elevated uncertainty. Labor supply remains tight in sectors such as hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing, partly reflecting shifts in immigration policy. Inflation pressures persist, fueled by higher input costs and new tariffs, though the degree of price pass-through to consumers varies by region. With official inflation data delayed by the government shutdown, policymakers are relying more heavily on these anecdotal insights to gauge the economy’s underlying momentum.

Crude oil is lower again with the low price reaching $58.20. Adam Button in a post wrote that world oil demand has reached record highs, yet prices remain subdued, with crude down with the price down 18% lower year-to-date, far from the $130 levels seen in 2022.

The main drag? OPEC+ continuing to add supply, which has kept the market oversupplied.

Still, as Adam Button notes, the “cure for low prices is low prices,” since depressed prices discourage new drilling and investment, eventually tightening supply. Demand is expected to grow by another 1 million barrels per day in 2026, which could gradually restore balance—though whether that occurs in 2026 or 2027 remains uncertain. CLICK here to read the full story.

Meanwhile, gold and silver continued their runs to the upside. Gold is up by $63 or 1.54% at $4206 and silver is up 1.62 or 3.14% at $53.07 on the day. Both are on pace for record closing levels for the day.

Bitcoin buyers are NOT as relentless. Since tradin to a new record high price at $126,272, the price has the hundred 10,000 915,000 over the last 6 trading days. The current price is trading near the low of the range at $111,343 down $-1734 or -1.53%

US broader stock indices traded up and down and is closing in the middle The Dow was not as fortunate as it gave back some of the gains from yesterday when it was the one indice that moved higher.

The final numbers shows:

• Dow industrial average fell -17.15 points or -0.04% at 46253.31
• S&P index rose 26.75 points or 0.40% at 6671.05
• NASDAQ index rose 148.38 points or 0.66% at 22670.08

In the US debt market, the yields are modestly higher:

• 2-year yield 3.499%, +2.0 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.623%, +2.3 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.035%, +1.4 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.632%, +0 point basis points.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

it was a funny day in the stock market today as a very strong start saw the S&P 500 up 1% but it was completely erased by the European close. It could have been European selling or it could have been trade war fears after a WSJ report suggesting China will call Trump’s bluff. The thing is, that report was out before the stock market open so it could have been something else or the market could have been slow to pick up on it.

In any case, after falling to a 0.4% decline, the stock market dip buyers arrived and there was a solid finish. The Russell 2000 in particular led again as it hit a new record in part due to strong numbers from financials so far in earnings season.

• S&P 500 +0.3%
• Nasdaq +0.5%
• Russell 2000 +0.8%
• DJIA -0.1%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.9%

The daily SPX kinda looks like a failure to retake the pre-fight highs.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.