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Like the US employment report, the BLS is saying that the CPI report for October will NOT be released, and that the November report will be released on December 18. That is after the December FOMC rate decision on December 10. CPI

The CPI report will not include a one month change due to the October data missing.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Pres. Trump is saying:

• Ukraine is losing land
• Russian Pres. Putin does not want to get more land
• Thursday is an appropriate deadline for Ukraine plan

Meanwhile:

• Ukraine, France, Germany, and UK are reportedly working on a counterproposal to US peace plan.

The proposed 28-point peace plan aimed at ending the war in Ukraine was drafted by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian officials

1. Territorial & Border Settlements

The plan proposes freezing the conflict largely along current front lines, requiring Ukraine to accept the de facto loss of territory:

• Crimea & Donbas: The U.S. would recognize Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk as de facto Russian territory.

• Frozen Front Lines: Control over the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions would be frozen along the current line of contact.

• Demilitarized Zone: A neutral, demilitarized buffer zone would be established in parts of the Donetsk region currently held by Ukraine.

• Troop Withdrawal: Ukrainian forces would be required to withdraw from specific contested areas to establish these zones.

2. NATO and Military Neutrality

A central pillar of the plan is the formal neutralization of Ukraine:

• No NATO Membership: Ukraine would be required to amend its constitution to renounce any future NATO membership.

• NATO Stance: Conversely, NATO would formally agree not to admit Ukraine into the alliance.

• Troop Limitations: The Ukrainian Armed Forces would be capped at 600,000 personnel (a reduction from current wartime levels).

• No Foreign Troops: The plan explicitly bans the stationing of NATO or other foreign troops on Ukrainian soil.

3. Security Guarantees

In exchange for neutrality, Ukraine would receive “reliable security guarantees” from the United States:

• The Guarantee: The U.S. would commit to a decisive response (including renewed sanctions and potential military action) if Russia invades Ukraine again.

• Conditions: These guarantees would be voided if Ukraine were to attack Russian territory or launch unprovoked missile strikes.

• European Air Support: While troops would be banned from Ukraine, European fighter jets would reportedly be stationed in Poland to provide a defensive umbrella.

4. Economic & Reconstruction Measures

The plan includes a massive economic component designed to incentivize both Kyiv and Moscow:

• Reconstruction Fund: A $100 billion fund would be created to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction, funded largely by frozen Russian assets.

• Sanctions Relief: Russia would see Western sanctions lifted in stages and would be reintegrated into the global economy, including a potential invitation to rejoin the G8.

• EU Path: While NATO is off the table, the plan affirms Ukraine’s eligibility for European Union membership and offers expedited access to European markets.

Current Reactions (November 2025)

• Ukraine: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has publicly stated he is ready to discuss the proposal to end the “suffering,” calling it a U.S. “vision.” However, private reports suggest Ukrainian officials view the terms—specifically the territorial concessions and NATO ban—as “absurd” and near-capitulation.

• Russia: The Kremlin has not publicly endorsed the plan in full, but Russian officials have reportedly expressed optimism, noting that their core security concerns (neutrality and territory) are being addressed.

• Europe: European leaders have reportedly expressed frustration at being sidelined during the drafting of the proposal, with concerns about the security implications for NATO’s eastern flank.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prelim was 50.5
• Prior was 53.6
• Conditions 51.1 vs 58.6 prior
• Expectations 51.0 vs 50.3 prior

The UMich numbers are unreliable and haven’t tracked consumer spending for a long time.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior month 1.3% (revised from 1.4%)
• Wholesale sales for the month of August 0.1% versus 0.4% estimate.
• Wholesale inventories 0.0% versus -0.2% estimate.
• Inventory to sales ratio 1.28 months versus 1.28 months last month.The ratio is near the low levels going back to midyear 2022

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 54.8
• Manufacturing vs 52.0 exp
• Prior manufacturing 52.5
• Composite PMI vs 54.5 prior
• Prior composite 54.6

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Maybe the consumer isn’t doing so badly after all?

The Gap CEO Richard Dickson said in the earnings call that despite “widely reported macroeconomic pressure on the low-income consumer,” Gap Inc. saw “growth across all income cohorts.”

Shares are up 8% premarket.

Yesterday, Walmart was also fairly upbeat on the consumer and the holiday season.

The Gap did highlight some trade-down from higher-income consumers, similar to Target shoppers going to Walmart.

“More high-income consumers [are] choosing Gap,” Dickson said.

A major indicator of consumer health is their willingness to pay full price versus waiting for sales. Both Old Navy and Gap saw average unit sales rise and lower discounting.

On the downside, there could be some price hikes in the pipeline. The company said tariffs negatively impacted gross margin by an estimated 190 basis points in Q3.

Similarly, Ross Stores shares are up 3.5% in the pre-market and the call was constructive after the company reported a 7% rise in comp sales.

Management explicitly stated they did not see a “trade-down”, higher traffic and larger baskets.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +1.0%
• October preliminary retail sales: “relatively unchanged”
• Ex-autos +0.2% vs -0.5% expected
• Prior ex-autos +0.7%
• Ex-autos and gas % vs +1.1% prior

There were indications of strong retail sales in October, including those tied to the Blue Jays’ World Series run. Walmart was also upbeat on Canadian consumer spending in Q3 and Canadian Tire was “cautiously optimistic” and spoke about “admirable resilience” in Canadian shoppers, including in lower-income cohorts. One lagging area could be ecommerce given the Canada Post strike.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior month -0.3% (August)
• September real weekly earnings month-to-month -0.1%
• YoY 0.8% versus 0.7% last month

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• ECB’s de Guindos: Risks to growth are balanced
• Dovish hold, or hawkish cut: that is the question
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?
• UK November flash services PMI 50.5 vs 52.0 expected
• Eurozone November flash services PMI 53.1 vs 52.8 expected
• Germany November flash manufacturing PMI 48.4 vs 49.5 expected
• ECB’s Lagarde: Will continue adjust policy as needed to ensure inflation remains at target
• France November flash services PMI 50.8 vs 48.4 expected
• France November business confidence 98 vs 100 expected
• Japan Finance Minister: Will pursue a responsible fiscal policy, not just a proactive one
• UK October retail sales -1.1% vs +0.0% m/m expected
• FX option expiries for 21 November 10am New York cut
• What are the main events for today?
• Takaichi: Japan may issue bonds for stimulus but total JGB supply to stay below last year

The main highlight of the session was the release of the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The Eurozone PMIs were good, but the UK ones were soft. The UK Retail Sales data, released before the PMIs, was also weak across the board.

The data didn’t change much in terms of market pricing as the ECB is still seen on hold, while the BoE is expected to cut by 25 bps at the upcoming meeting in December.

Another notable news were the comments from the Japanese Finance Minister Katayama which gave the JPY a boost as she said that they would pursue a responsible fiscal policy and that total bond issuance this fiscal year would be below last fiscal year’s.

Lastly, we heard from ECB President Lagarde and the ECB Vice President de Guindos, but both of them just reaffirmed the central bank’s neutral stance.

In the markets, the risk sentiment remains on edge with the US equities and bitcoin trading near the lows of the day. The US dollar is higher on the day, while precious metals like gold and silver are down.

In the American session, we get the Canadian
Retail Sales data, the Flash US PMIs and the final UMich consumer
sentiment. The most market-moving release should be the Flash US PMIs.
In fact, the BoC is now on the sidelines and a poor or strong retail
sales report is not going to change that. The final UMich data is rarely
market-moving as the market likes fresh information i.e. the
preliminary figures.

The US Flash PMIs could be
market-moving, although I don’t see how they could change things
materially at this point unless they are very strong or very weak. The
market is pricing roughly a 30% chance of a December cut, which makes it
unlikely but keeps some hopes alive in case other data shows weakness
or Fed members signal a cut before the blackout period starting next
Saturday.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The last Fed Chair Powell’s press conference marked a top in risk sentiment as the infamous words “a December cut is not a foregone conclusion – in fact, far from it” triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations.

The stock market has been drifting lower ever since as the chances for a December cut kept on falling. Depending on the context, a hawkish repricing is generally negative for the stock market, especially when the market is overstretched.

The problem now is that the stock market is what could break the economy, so the Fed will need to walk a fine line to avoid a recession. In fact, with this latest selloff, the total easing by the end of 2026 has actually increased a little.

This is because the market is thinking that a continuous selloff in the stock market is going to weigh a lot on sentiment and economic activity, and eventually require more or more aggressive rate cuts. If you consider the K-shaped economy narrative, you can see how the upper part depends on the stock market.

This is why I think that if the Fed is going to hold rates steady, it’s going to do so by delivering a dovish hold. The December meeting will come with fresh economic projections and the Fed could signal a more dovish future outlook by increasing the projected rate cuts in 2026 from 1 to 2 or even 3.

This leads me to expect a trough in the bearish risk sentiment here as from an asymmetric view, I think the downside is now limited and we could see a rebound (famous last words).

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 24/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down -2.17%, Shanghai Composite down -1.88%, Hang Seng down -2.16% ASX down -1.40%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,055.56 (-0.09%), Silver at $94.530 (-1.55%), Brent Oil at $62.58 (-1.26%), WTI Oil at $58.18 (-1.39%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.094, UK 10-year yield at 4.5890, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7194

News & Data:

• (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change  119K  to 53K expected
• (USD) Unemployment Rate  4.4%  to 4.3% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are sharply lower on Friday, tracking the negative cues from Wall Street as investors dial back expectations for a U.S. Fed rate cut in December. The long-delayed September jobs report showed higher unemployment alongside stronger-than-expected job growth, prompting fresh concerns about inflation and monetary policy. Fears of an AI-driven valuation bubble also continue to weigh on sentiment. This follows a mostly higher finish for Asian markets on Thursday.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 has reversed the prior session’s gains and is trading well below 8,450, dragged down by broad weakness in mining, energy and technology stocks. Major miners such as BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are all sharply lower, while tech names like Block and Zip are also under pressure. Banks and gold miners are seeing notable declines as well. Shares of Accent Group and Lovisa are tumbling after disappointing updates. Economic data was more upbeat, with Australia’s services and manufacturing PMIs improving in November.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is also sharply lower, falling more than 2 percent as heavyweight tech stocks slump. SoftBank and Advantest are among the biggest laggards, while automakers Toyota and Honda are posting modest gains. Inflation data for October met expectations, while the country’s trade deficit narrowed slightly.

Elsewhere, markets in South Korea, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong are firmly lower, while Wall Street ended Thursday deep in the red as major U.S. indices reversed early gains and finished near session lows.

Upcoming Events:

• 02:45 PM GMT – USD Flash Manufacturing PMI
• 02:45 PM GMT – USD Flash Services PMI

The post Friday 21th November 2025: Asian Markets Tumble as Rate Cut Hopes Fade and Tech Sell-Off Deepens first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.