Articles

• US December non-farm payrolls +50K vs +60K expected
• Canada employment change 8.2K versus -5.0 K estimate
• Japan’s Takaichi weighs calling a snap election for mid-February
• US October housing starts 1.246m vs 1.325m expected
• Fed’s Barkin: Today’s drop in the unemployment rate is welcome
• Fed’s Bostic says inflation is ‘a lot’ above the 2% target
• No opinion today on tariffs from the US Supreme Court
• How Trump leaked the non-farm payrolls report
• White House says Trump jobs report leak was “inadvertent public disclosure”
• US UMich January prelim consumer sentiment 54.0 vs 53.5 expected
• The US earnings calendar heats up next week with banks and airlines

Markets:

• Gold up $28 to $4503
• Silver up 3.8%
• WTI crude up $1.20 to $58.97
• US 10-year yields flat at 4.17%
• S&P 500 up 0.8% to fresh record
• USD leads, JPY lags

It was a lively news day but not as much as it could have been. The Supreme Court released a decision on Friday as expected but it wasn’t about tariffs, so we will continue to wait for that. The next possible date is Wednesday, which has also been scheduled as a ‘decision day’.

In terms of what happened, the non-farm payrolls report led to volatile trading. The dollar rose on the kneejerk, then fell around 25 pips due to the softer headline and revisions, then started a long climb as the market focused on the lower unemployment rate. That view was validated by Barkin, who said he welcomed falling unemployment.

Overall, the US dollar moves weren’t big.

The loonie didn’t get any help from a strong jobs report as USD/CAD rose for the six straight day to start the year. That pair is now at a five week high, even as oil prices rise. Part of the reason is compressing Canadian heavy oil spreads after the US-Venezuela coup.

The big loser on the day was the yen and most of that came before the election reports but I think that’s a critical spot to watch. If Takaichi launches a campaign and promises even more spending, that could turbocharge worries about Japanese indebtedness and further boost long-term borrowing costs. She’s polling well so it shouldn’t be a surprise if she decides to pull the trigger.

A bid for precious metals came midway through US trading and I wonder if the market is sensing weekend risk after the drama in Venezuela. It seems as though Cuba is on the clock and maybe Greenland too. Further, keep an eye on Iran this weekend as protests there likely lifted gold and oil prices in Friday.

Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Friday was about the jobs report but the week ahead will see the market tilt towards earnings.. The S&P 500 is flirting with 7,000, yields are looking for direction, and the solid economy in 2026 narrative is crowded.

The bank numbers and commentary will serve as a high-stakes health check on the US consumer—specifically if loan losses are finally starting to bite. If the consumer is cracking under the weight of higher rates, Jamie Dimon’s commentary will be the first place we see it.

Beyond the banks, we’re looking for a signal that the freight recession has found a floor and if chip demand has any red flags.

Here is what to watch:

Banks:

It’s big bank earnings week with: JPM, Wells Fargo, Citi, BofA

• Tuesday (JPM) & Wednesday (WFC, C, BAC)

• On the macro view, it’s about credit quality. I’m looking for signs that consumers are falling behind on payments.

• EPS Consensus (JPM): ~$5.01 (Whispers are higher, closer to $5.10)

• Watch credit card delinquencies.

We know the affluent consumer is fine (wealth effect from stocks/housing). We need to know how badly the lower end consumer is hurting. Watch for loan loss provisions and commentary about spending. For the market more broadly, there could also be some talk about M&A, which would also be a positive economic and market signal.

JPM CEO Jamie Dimon is typically candid but he’s been hit-or-miss on macro signals so take his views with that in mind.

Airlines:

At the top end of the K-shaped economy, watch for Delta Airlines earnings on Tuesday morning. The consensus is $1.63. Travel is a good barometer of economic confidence but what we’re likely seeing in airlines is high end consumer traveling more, including in premium seats and middle income consumers getting squeezed. That’s been working ok for airlines and I think they’re a good investment but if those economy seats don’t fill, that could change.

Another signal worth watching is commentary on business travel, which has slowly been coming back post-covid but still isn’t all the way there.

Chipmakers:

TSMC on Thursday morning is arguably the big one for the week. They make Nvidia’s chips and have great visibility into the order book. With valuations very high, any sign of weakness whatsoever could spread broadly in tech.

TSMC is the bellwether. If they guide for continued acceleration in “High Performance Computing” (HPC), the AI bull run gets a green light for 2026. Any hesitation here will drag down the entire Nasdaq (NVDA, AMD).

Freight:

J.B. Hunt (JBHT) reports Thursday after the close.

Manufacturing and freight have been in a brutal recession and signs of a bottom are hard to find but some freight names bounced from the lows in Q4, so there is optimism headed into the new year. Is it misplaced? JBHT could tell us.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The White House is out with damage control after Trump leaked the jobs numbers late yesterday on Truth Social.

“Following the regular procedure of presidents being prebriefed on
economic data releases, there was an inadvertent public disclosure of
aggregate data that was partially derived from pre-released information.
The White House is accordingly reviewing protocols regarding economic
data releases. ”

The statement continued with some kind of rant about the media.

If you missed it: How Trump leaked the non-farm payrolls report

The jobs report itself has led to a diminished pricing for a rate cut in March.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The non-farm payrolls came in a bit softer than the whisper numbers, giving the “bad news is good news” crowd a reason to cheer. For the ECB, it doesn’t change much, but for equity bulls, it was the green light they needed to keep the momentum going.

Here’s the closing scoreboard for the week ending January 9, 2026:

The STOXX 600 rose 2.23% on the week, a solid performance that speaks to improving breadth across sectors. Cyclicals quietly outperformed defensives, suggesting investors are leaning into growth without fully abandoning caution.

Germany’s DAX led the major benchmarks with a 2.86% weekly gain, continuing to benefit from easing energy concerns and resilience in industrial exporters. The move also reflects growing confidence that Europe’s manufacturing downturn may be stabilizing rather than accelerating.

France’s CAC 40 added 1.89%, helped by strength in luxury and industrial names, while the FTSE 100 climbed 1.82%, outperforming global peers as energy and financials provided ballast.

Southern Europe lagged slightly after a great year in 2025 but still finished higher. Italy’s FTSE MIB gained 0.75%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 rose 0.92%, with banks consolidating after strong year-to-date runs.

That’s a solid first real trading week. There isn’t too much intrigue on the ECB front as they’ve moved to the sidelines. In politics, they’ve been hammering out a MERCOSUR (South America) trading deal and that looks like it’s heading towards completion. The hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal appear to be slipping but peace deals often come out of the blue so we will see what happens next. Russia used a hyper-sonic missile on Friday.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Late yesterday, Trump posted this on Truth Social:

The problem is, that number didn’t match up with what had been reported in the non-farm payrolls report data that had already been released. It also came after the Council of Economic Advisors was briefed on the jobs report (usually the afternoon before the release).

The numbers only make sense if you add in the data released today:

Now it would have taken some fancy modeling to map this to today’s release and trade on it because there were revisions to Oct/Nov data today that would have to be factored it.

That said, knowing these numbers certainly removed some of the tail risks around a very strong or very weak data point. The also highlight an administration that’s playing loose with market-moving economic data. It undermines confidence that all the jobs numbers aren’t leaked and traded on ahead of time.

In terms of market reaction, the US dollar has been all over the map since the release. The kneejerk was higher on the falling unemployment, then it reversed based on large downward revisions to the jobs number but it’s reversed again and the dollar is now broadly stronger.

Mixed in with that market reaction has been the Supreme Court punting on the tariff decision for the week and a Japanese report suggesting a February election is coming. We’re also dealing with flows around the start of the new year.

US stock markets are higher today and that could be driving some flows as well but note that gold just broke $4500 and that speaks to some of the chaos in international affairs and leaks like this undermining confidence. Remember that the gold rally really kicked off in late August when Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the agency that releases the non-farm payrolls report.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Final December reading was 53.3
• 1-year inflation 4.2% vs 4.1% prior
• 5 year inflation 3.4% vs 3.2% prior
• Current conditions 52.4 vs 50.7 prior
• Expectations 55.0 vs 54.6 prior

This isn’t a great economic indicator as answers are increasingly politicized and the inflation numbers are volatile. There was a time when this was tier-2 economic data but it’s been slowly downgraded. It’s final moment in the sun was in covid when a jump in inflation expectations caused a panicky Fed to tilt towards deeper rate hikes. That jump was later revised away in an embarrassing moment for the Powell Fed.

As for this report, it corresponds with a better mood from consumers. Spending over the holidays was solid, though not spectacular.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The waiting continues.

The US Supreme Court works in mysterious ways. The announced on Tuesday that this would be a ‘decision day’ but the court always has a large number of decisions to make and they don’t pre-announce which one it will be.

They technically have until June to make the tariff decision but because it was an expedited hearing with important economic effects, it’s expected in January or February. As for the exact date, there is a large amount of work before the Supreme Court in the week beginning January 19, so that’s a good bet.

Until then, we will continue to wait for ‘decision day’ announcements and then prepare accordingly.

For stocks with large tariff exposure, this is a tough trading paradigm because we don’t know what’s coming. For what it’s worth, the administration sounds pretty confident that it can quickly reconstitute tariffs but whether those hold up may depend on what the Court says about these tariffs and the reasoning, particularly if they rule it’s a ‘major question’, which is something that needs to go through Congress.

“Our ‌expectation is that ⁠we’re going to ​win, and if we don’t win,
then we know that we’ve got other tools ​that we could use that get us
to the same place,” Hassett said in an ⁠interview on CNBC earlier today.

Hassett specified that Section 301 would be part of the mix and that Greer is leading it (itself a bit of a clue). They’ve previously said it could also include Section 122 tariffs. See: How the White House will pivot if the Supreme Court strikes down current tariffs

Ultimately, I think this was a good dress rehearsal but if this continues into February, it’s going to get tiresome for markets as it adds unnecessary uncertainty.

The decision that was rendered today was on Bowe vs United States and the court ruled that federal prisoners are not barred from filing “do-over” claims in second or successive postconviction motions and that the Court has the jurisdiction to review such certification decisions.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may be looking to capitalize on high personal approval ratings and a honeymoon period to consolidate power in the lower house.

A Yomiuri report says she’s mulling dissolving the lower house for a snap election in mid or mid-February. Takaichi became the first woman ever to lead Japan’s dominant ruling party after winning leadership of the party in October and was sworn in as Prime Minister later that month.

However she leads an LDP-Ishin minority after long-time coalition partner Komeito withdrew support due to Takaichi’s hawkish views. Her ability to pass legislation is limited so she may be trying to be the first Japanese woman to win an election as Prime Minister, validating her position and consolidating power.

She is polling well right now so this isn’t a big surprise but she has an ambitious agenda and will need a stronger position in parliament to pass it. If dissolved, all 465 Lower House seats become vacant and a general election must be held within 40 days.

A big factor in the election may be the yen, which struggled badly in the second half of 2025 and is flirting with a 9-month low today.

The USD/JPY chart also flatters the yen’s performance as it hit a record low recently against the euro and the worst levels since the 1990s against the pound.

That weakness helps Japanese export competitiveness but it’s a dangerous game to play with imported inflation. Japanese bond markets are also increasingly vulnerable. Long-term borrowing costs have spiked to the highest in decades.

If Takaichi runs on increasing spending and wins the support to do that, we could see even more selling in Japanese bonds, something that risks a spiral and a crisis that could spread across borders.

Watch Japan very closely this year.

The number
one risk I see in the foreign exchange market in 2026 is Japan. The yen has
been struggling for the past six months and it’s close to a boiling point in
Tokyo. There were some stronger warnings about FX intervention late in
December. Japan is the most-indebted major economy in the world and the
demographics are terrible. The US is leaving a lot of uncertainty around its
alliance with Japan and China is eating its lunch in manufacturing.

There is
something of ‘boy who cried wolf’ situation around Japanese debt as people have
been calling for a crisis for 20 years but Japanese borrowing costs are hitting
30 year highs. These things can escalate quickly and could turn into an
international problem.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Before we go into the expected scenarios and what you may consider trading, here’s where you can watch it live when it starts!

Supreme Court & Trump Tariffs: Watch Live

Before it starts, here is a glimpse of the wisdom of the crowd and what the supreme court, in its view, will decide.

Event Risk Window: 8:30 AM ET (NFP) and 10:00 AM ET (Supreme Court opinion release)

Markets are heading into a rare convergence of macro, legal, and positioning risk, with traders navigating both the December US non-farm payrolls report and a potentially market-moving Supreme Court decision on Trump-era tariffs.

While payrolls normally dominate a Friday morning, attention today is clearly split. Many desks are already treating the jobs report as a secondary catalyst, with positioning light and volatility suppressed ahead of the 10:00 AM ET Supreme Court window.

Will the court’s (opinion) be supportive of Trump and tarrifs? What prediction markets are signaling

One of the clearest real-time sentiment gauges is the Polymarket contract asking whether the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump’s tariffs.

As of this morning:

• Implied probability: ~25% that the Court upholds the tariffs

• Market consensus: ~75% chance the tariffs are struck down or meaningfully limited

• Trend: A sustained decline in odds since November, likely reflecting post-argument legal interpretation and positioning shifts

In short, the “smart money” in prediction markets is leaning heavily toward a negative ruling for the tariffs.

Why the Court’s Rulling on Trump Tarrifs Matters for Today’s Trading

Because expectations are already skewed, the risk is asymmetric.

Scenario 1: Tariffs Are Struck Down (Consensus Outcome)

If the Court rules against the tariffs, markets are likely to interpret this as the removal of a long-standing inflationary and supply-chain risk.

• Equities: Supportive, particularly for consumer discretionary and import-sensitive names

• Broad sentiment: Risk-on, but likely controlled rather than explosive due to expectations already being priced

• US Dollar: Potential downside pressure as tariff-driven inflation risk fades

In this scenario, the jobs report may act only as a secondary volatility layer, unless payrolls significantly surprise.

Scenario 2: Tariffs Are Upheld (Low-Probability Shock)

This is where volatility could accelerate.

Because markets are not positioned for this outcome, a ruling in favor of the tariffs could trigger rapid repricing:

• Equities: Sharp downside as cost pressures and policy uncertainty re-enter forecasts

• Sector rotation: Relative strength in domestic steel and materials, weakness elsewhere

• Dollar: Potential spike as inflation expectations and rate-path uncertainty reprice higher

Why NFP Still Matters, but Less Than Usual

The December payrolls consensus sits near +60K jobs with a 4.5% unemployment rate, and some analysts see upside risk. However, even a surprise print may struggle to dominate flows if traders are already bracing for the legal headline.

As Adam Button noted earlier, markets appear “locked and loaded” for the Supreme Court release, with both US and Canadian jobs data potentially taking a back seat.

Remember, the above are just for you to consider as you do your own research. And watch the price action, be careful of end of the week volatilty as market makers can stop hunt both bulls and bears, in case you’re trading this.

For deeper context on the legal timing and market implications, see our full breakdown here:👉 InvestingLive.com analysis: The Supreme Court scheduled Friday as an opinion day: what’s the trade?https://investinglive.com/news/the-supreme-court-scheduled-friday-as-an-opinion-day-whats-the-trade-20260106/

Bottom Line for Traders

Prediction markets suggest the tariffs are expected to fall. That means calm is priced in, shock is not.

From a decision-support perspective, today is less about prediction and more about reaction discipline. Watch the sequencing, respect volatility, and remember that when probabilities cluster this tightly, the minority outcome carries the most risk.

We will also be watching the Nasdaq order flow and what it can tell us.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Just a post noting this data release.

I’ll be back with detail in a separate post. Link here (added).

China December 2025:

CPI 0.8% y/y, close to a 3-year high

• expected 0.9%, prior 0.7%
• +0.2% m/m vs. expected 0%, prior -0.1%

PPI -1.9% y/y

• expected -2.0%, prior -2.2%
• +0.2% m/m vs. expected +0.1%, prior 0.1%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Canada December jobs statistics show:

• Employment change: 8.2 K vs -5.0K estimate, +53.6K prior

• Unemployment rate: 6.8% vs 6.6% estimate, 6.5% prior

• Full-time employment change: 50.2K vs -9.4k last month

• Part-time employment change: -42.0K vs 63.0K last momth

• Participation rate: 65.4% vs 65.1% last month

• Avg hourly wages (permanent, YoY): 3.7% vs 4.0% last month

Highlights:

• Employment was essentially flat in December, rising by 8,200 (0.0%), after three strong monthly gains from September through November.

• The employment rate —the percentage of the population aged 15 years and older who are employed—held steady at 60.9%.

• Full-time employment increased by 50,000 (+0.3%), while part-time employment fell by 42,000 (-1.1%), partially reversing gains from October and November.

• Over the past 12 months, part-time employment grew faster (+2.6%) than full-time employment (+0.7%).

• Private sector, public sector, and self-employment levels showed little change in December.

• The unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8% in December, partially reversing declines from the prior two months.

• The number of unemployed increased to 1.6 million, up 73,000 (+4.9%) on the month.

• The participation rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 65.4%, reflecting more people entering or re-entering the labor force.

• On a year-over-year basis, the participation rate was unchanged.

Summary: 2025 labour market trend (Canada)

• The Canadian labour market faced headwinds through most of 2025, with hiring slowing amid economic and trade uncertainty, particularly related to U.S. tariffs.

• From January to August, employment was essentially flat, the employment rate declined, and the unemployment rate rose to a multi-year high of 7.1%, driven mainly by weaker hiring rather than layoffs.

• Job finding rates deteriorated early in the year, while layoff rates remained near historical norms, indicating softer labour demand rather than widespread job losses.

• Job vacancies declined, and employers reported less difficulty filling positions, pointing to a cooling labour market.

• Youth were disproportionately affected, with youth unemployment and student joblessness reaching their highest levels in more than a decade (excluding pandemic years).

• Conditions improved late in the year, with employment rebounding from August to November and the employment rate recovering to 60.9%.

• The unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in November before edging higher to 6.8% in December, reflecting renewed labour force participation rather than renewed job losses.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior 1.307m
• Building permits 1.412m vs 1.350m expected
• Prior 1.330m

This is still old data as government shutdown in October delayed many key economic reports. The last report was in September where it showed housing starts falling to the lowest level since May 2025.

There’s been persistent housing market weakness due to high mortgage rates and softening labor market. Trump said in a Truth Social post today that he has ordered $200 bn in MBS purchases to lower mortgage rates.

Trump said that large-scale MBS buying would narrow mortgage spreads, push borrowing costs lower, and reduce monthly mortgage payments. He described the move as part of a broader strategy to reverse what he characterised as damage inflicted on housing affordability over the past several years.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.