It’s a rough one in the Magic Kingdom today.

Shares of Disney are down 8.8% shortly after the open following today’s earnings report. That sends them to the lowest level since May.

The numbers (fiscal Q4 2025)

• Adjusted EPS: $1.11 vs 1.05 estimate

• Revenue: $22.5B, flat y/y and just under the $22.75B street view.

Streaming / DTC (the bright spot)

• Streaming profit +39% y/y to $352M.

• Disney+ and Hulu added 12.5M subs, taking the combined base to about 196M.

Parks & Experiences (still strong)

• Operating income at the “experiences” unit (parks, resorts, cruises) +13% y/y to $1.88B, driven partly by more cruise passenger days and Disneyland Paris.

• This is a good sign for the economy/sconsumer

Entertainment / TV / ESPN (the problem child)

• Entertainment division operating income down by more than a third to $691M as this year’s film slate couldn’t match last year’s hits.

• Traditional TV profit -21% to $391M; ESPN also down.

Weak cable/linear trends are what pulled revenue under consensus and are the core bear argument on the stock and why shares are down so hard today. The good news is the dividend was hiked 50% to $1.50 and they’re buying back shares.

There is a transition that’s the bet you’re making with Disney shares and it’s one that consumers are making too as streaming wins versus cable. Top executives said that as Disney continues to establish Direct-to-Consumer as “a core driver of growth,”

“Looking ahead, we are positioned to continue to grow our streaming business in fiscal 2026,” said CEO Bob Iger.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Does not see much of an argument not to cut rates
• Will get jobs market, not unemployment for one month of data

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I’ve repeated this often and I will repeat it again: Short selling is so hard, that if someone actually gets it right, they make a movie about them.

And it turns out that if you get it right, it’s more a case of luck and timing than skill, because none of the people in the movie have done it again and none of the famous short sellers make money.

Don’t short.

Michael Burry was in the news lately for filing a 13F showing large put option positions in Palantir and Nvidia. That seemed to get the market’s attention as both have since struggled but what many commentators missed was that the positions were for Q3, which ended September 30. He was deep underwater on those puts and even with the large drops in both lately, he still is.

In any case, he’s throwing in the towel and will convert to a family office.

Now there is something to be said about shorts throwing in the towel at the peak of the bull market…

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

America is back!

Well, at least the government is back open and that means data is back on the economic calendar. Now I haven’t totally confirmed that it will be released but it looks like it will come out at the bottom of the hour. The consensus is 225K and it’s for the week ending Nov 8.

Needless to say, there is a gap in the historical record with the last data set from the week ending Sept 25.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Dollar a touch on the softer side in European morning trade
• USD/JPY settles just under 155 level for now, traders weigh up intervention risks
• Gold Technical Analysis: Shutdown ended, US data in focus next
• ECB’s Villeroy: Victory over inflation in France looks lasting
• UK Q3 preliminary GDP +0.1% vs +0.2% q/q expected
• UK September monthly GDP -0.1% vs 0.0% expected
• Eurozone September industrial production +0.2% vs vs +0.7% m/m expected
• China October M2 money supply +8.2% vs +8.1% y/y expected
• IEA raises world oil demand growth forecast but still sees supply glut coming

Markets:

• AUD leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures down 0.2%
• US 10-year yields up 1.9 bps to 4.098%
• Gold up 0.8% to $4,234.01
• WTI crude oil up 0.8% to $58.93
• Bitcoin up 1.0% to $102,925

It was a relatively quiet session with light market moves as well as not too many headlines that stood out. The preliminary results for UK Q3 GDP were a bit of a bummer and that led to a brief drop in the pound. GBP/USD fell from 1.3120 to 1.3100 before erasing losses shortly after, with the pair now back up to 1.3150 levels.

A softer dollar isn’t helping with the greenback trailing behind European currencies and even seeing USD/JPY back away from a test of 155.00 to be flattish around 154.70 levels currently.

The lead gainer in the major currencies space is the Australian dollar, buoyed by a stronger jobs report from earlier in the day. AUD/USD is up 0.4% to 0.6560 but off earlier highs of 0.6580 during the tail end of Asia trading.

In other markets, stocks were more mixed in Europe with the DAX holding lower while the CAC 40 index traded higher. Other major indices in the region are holding marginal gains though UK stocks are also seen lower on the day as the hot streak fizzles on the week.

As for US futures, they slowly dribbled lower with tech shares once again being a concern. Or should I say more so the Mag 7. There has been a steady rotation out of that this week and also as what we saw yesterday. So, that looks to be carrying over once again ahead of the Wall Street open later.

S&P 500 futures were up around 0.3% to start European trading but are now down 0.2% with Nasdaq futures also lower by 0.2%. Dow futures are flat currently.

In the commodities space, gold is continuing its solid rebound in a push above $4,200 on the day. That’s keeping buyers well interested in the hunt towards the October highs once more before the supposedly hot seasonal streak kicks in during December and January.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 13 November 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The overnight US session was dominated by optimism surrounding the imminent end of the 43-day government shutdown, which drove the Dow Jones to record highs while triggering a significant rotation from technology stocks into traditional value sectors. Healthcare, financials, and consumer stocks led gains, while the technology sector suffered notable losses following SoftBank’s $5.8 billion Nvidia stake sale. The Fed’s rate cut outlook remains uncertain, with December odds declining to 63-68% as inflation persists above target at 3%. Treasury yields eased, the dollar strengthened modestly, and commodities presented mixed results with gold holding near recent highs while oil retreated.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a data-heavy session with Australian employment figures taking center stage early in the day. The potential release of delayed US CPI data adds significant event risk, while Asian markets continue benefiting from optimism over the US shutdown resolution. Key themes include diverging central bank policies (Fed easing versus BoJ tightening considerations), persistent China growth concerns despite policy support, oil market weakness from supply surplus projections, and currency volatility, particularly in JPY and AUD pairs.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

Thursday, November 13, 2025, marks a pivotal day for the US dollar with three major catalysts converging: the October CPI inflation report at 8:30 AM ET (expected to show 3.0% headline and core inflation), the likely House vote to end the 43-day government shutdown, and key international economic data from Australia and the UK. The dollar is trading weakly around 99.50-99.60 on the DXY, down significantly over the past year, as markets price in a 68-70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

A pivotal day for gold markets, as the October CPI release will likely determine the near-term direction. Gold’s fundamental backdrop remains exceptionally supportive, with mounting expectations of Fed rate cuts (a 64–70% probability for December), unprecedented central bank purchases (634 tonnes year-to-date), and persistent geopolitical uncertainties all underpinning prices. The metal has successfully broken above $4,100 and is now testing resistance at the $4,150–$4,200 range.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Employment Change (12:30 am GMT)

Unemployment Rate (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar faces a pivotal moment with employment data acting as the key catalyst. The currency is caught between competing forces: a hawkish RBA maintaining restrictive policy to combat sticky inflation, weakening Chinese demand and falling iron ore prices, and mixed signals from US monetary policy and political developments. The labour market report will be crucial in determining whether the RBA’s hawkish hold stance is justified or if softer conditions will force a policy reassessment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar faces a challenging environment heading into Thursday’s trading session on November 13, 2025. The combination of aggressive RBNZ easing, deteriorating domestic labor market conditions, weakening dairy prices, and mixed signals from China creates a predominantly bearish outlook. The currency is testing critical support levels around 0.5600, with the psychological 0.5500 floor representing the next major downside target.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025, exceeding market expectations for a smaller 25-basis-point reduction and signaling a stronger commitment to reviving growth.
• The decision was reached by consensus, marking a shift from previous split votes, and reflected policymakers’ shared view that sustained economic weakness and persistent disinflationary pressures required a more front-loaded policy response.
• Annual consumer price inflation stood at 2.7% in the June quarter and is seen nearing 3% for the September quarter—above the 2% midpoint but within the 1–3% target range. Despite high near-term readings, the MPC projects inflation will return toward 2% by the first half of 2026 as spare capacity and moderating tradables curb price momentum.
• Policymakers acknowledged that domestic demand remains weak, with household spending, business investment, and construction activity under pressure. While still elevated, services inflation is expected to ease gradually as wage growth slows and unemployment edges higher.
• Financial conditions have eased with expectations as wholesale and retail borrowing rates adjust to lower policy settings. Bank lending data indicate a modest uptick in mortgage approvals, though broader credit demand remains subdued.
• GDP growth stalled in the middle of 2025, with high-frequency indicators showing continued weakness into the third quarter. A combination of elevated costs for essentials and falling savings continues to restrain household consumption, while global trade frictions weigh on business sentiment.
• The MPC noted that global uncertainty—particularly from US trade regulation changes and soft Chinese demand—continues to pose downside risks to export sectors, though these are partly offset by a weaker New Zealand dollar improving competitiveness.
• Subject to data confirming a sustained soft patch in activity and moderating inflation pressures, the MPC signaled further scope to reduce the OCR toward 2.25% at its next meeting on 26 November 2025, consistent with current market and Westpac forecasts.
• The next meeting is on 26 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen faces multiple headwinds, including Prime Minister Takaichi’s dovish rhetoric emphasizing close BoJ coordination, the impending large-scale stimulus package urging accommodative monetary policy, and improving global risk sentiment following progress on the US government shutdown. While BoJ’s internal debate suggests conditions for rate hikes are nearly met, political pressure and economic uncertainties are likely to delay any policy tightening. Intervention warnings from Japanese authorities have intensified but lack credibility until USD/JPY approaches 160.00.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets are grappling with multiple crosscurrents. Key bearish factors include OPEC’s acknowledgment of Q3 market surplus, expectations of substantial inventory builds through 2026, persistent oversupply from both OPEC+ production increases and non-OPEC growth, and sluggish demand, particularly from China. Supportive elements include US sanctions disrupting Russian oil exports and forcing supply chain adjustments.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 13 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Markets Positive Ahead of Government Resumption – Dow up 0.7%
The Dow once again pushed to record levels overnight, rising 0.68% to close at 48,254, as investors looked ahead to the expected resolution of the US government’s longest-running shutdown within the next couple of days. The S&P 500 edged slightly higher by 0.06% to 6,850, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.26% to finish at 23,406, as some profit-taking emerged across the tech sector. In currency markets, the dollar traded in familiar ranges, finishing marginally firmer with the DXY up 0.03% at 99.48. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields declined as traders increasingly priced in potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The 2-year yield fell by 2.3 basis points to 3.568%, while the 10-year dropped 4.7 basis points to 4.069%. Commodities were where the big moves occurred. Oil prices fell hard, Brent falling 3.73% to $62.73 and WTI down 4.21% to $58.48, after OPEC+ revised its long-term outlook and forecast that global oil supply will match demand by 2026 — a significant shift from its previous prediction of a supply deficit. Gold continued its strong run, gaining another 1.66% to trade at $4,195.39 at the New York close, extending its week-to-date advance to nearly 5%.

Gold Drives Higher Again – up 5% this Week
Gold has once again shone in financial markets over the last few days, with the world’s favourite precious metal gaining close to 5% from its low on Monday. Again, these moves appear to be hugely flow-driven, with little corresponding movement in other markets to justify their size. Some commentators are attributing the US government’s pending return, anticipated data resumption, and consequent Fed rate cuts to the move, and this may be a small factor, but the sheer size of the move would suggest that other factors are at play, as we saw in the big drive higher from early September. The metal is now just short of key trendline resistance on the daily chart, and if we see it smash through those levels in the next few sessions, we could see those all-time highs challenged again before the end of the month.

Busy Day Ahead for Traders
It is a busier day ahead on the economic calendar, with markets turning their attention to key data out of Australia and the UK. However, traders are expected to remain firmly focused on developments in Washington as the end of the government shutdown draws closer. The Asian session will see a strong focus on Australian markets, with crucial employment data due out. The Employment Change figure is expected to show a 20k increase for October, with the Unemployment Rate dropping 0.1% to 4.4%. The European session will again see a focus on UK markets, with GDP data due out. The month-on-month number is expected to come in flat, with the quarterly update expected at +0.2%, dropping from the previous +0.3%. There is little actually scheduled on the calendar in the New York session apart from the weekly Crude Oil Inventory data (exp. 1.0 mio barrels); however, traders are expecting government shutdown progress to ensure another lively session.

The post General Market Analysis – 13/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.09%, Shanghai Composite up 0.44%, Hang Seng down -0.63% ASX down -1.01%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,211.76 (-0.03%), Silver at $53.948 (0.92%), Brent Oil at $62.6 (-0.11%), WTI Oil at $58.39 (-0.17%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.072, UK 10-year yield at 4.4000, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6465

News & Data:

• (CAD) Building Permits m/m  4.5%  to 0.8% expected

Markets Update:

Asian markets traded mixed on Thursday, mirroring the uncertain cues from Wall Street, as investors remained cautious ahead of a slew of key US economic data. Sentiment was also shaped by the US House of Representatives’ vote to end the country’s longest-ever government shutdown, a move expected to help the Federal Reserve better assess economic conditions before its December policy meeting. Asian markets had closed mixed in the previous session.

With official US data suspended during the shutdown, traders relied on private indicators, which currently point to a 65.4 percent chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

In Australia, stocks extended losses, with the S&P/ASX 200 sliding below 8,750 amid weakness in financials, energy and technology, though gold miners provided some support. The index fell nearly 1 percent to 8,719.40. Strong October jobs data, including a drop in unemployment to 4.3 percent and a larger-than-expected increase of 42,200 positions, had little impact on sentiment. The Australian dollar hovered near $0.656.

Japan’s Nikkei moved higher, rising above 51,250 as gains in tech and financial stocks offset weakness among major index heavyweights. Producer prices rose 2.7 percent year-on-year in October, slightly above expectations. Elsewhere in Asia, trading was mostly muted, with small moves across major markets.

On Wall Street, the Dow climbed while the Nasdaq drifted lower, and Europe closed broadly higher. Crude oil slumped over 4 percent after OPEC signaled a supply surplus.

Upcoming Events:

• 07:00 AM GMT – GBP GDP m/m

The post Thursday 13th November 2025: Asian Markets Mixed Ahead of Key U.S. Data; Australia Slips, Japan Advances first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 99.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.1598

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 1.1537

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1669

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 178.08

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 177.13
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 179.63
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8817

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8763
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8872
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibnacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3257

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3102
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3319
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 201.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 200.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 204.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.7970

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7931
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8037
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 153.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 151.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 155.43

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                          

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3984

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3947

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4079

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.6515

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6447

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6621

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5689

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5614

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5760

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 47,416.67

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 47,063.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,467.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 24,105.38

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,747.33

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,512.32

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that align with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 6,805.54

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,746.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6.919.84

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 107,251.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 100,109.03

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 111,261.15

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 3,691.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 3,210.12

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,919.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 60.14

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 57.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 62.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,055.75

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 3,891.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,218.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 13th November 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 14/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 13 November 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
The session was dominated by the interplay between stronger-than-expected Australian labor market resilience, yen weakness testing intervention thresholds, Chinese policy stimulus announcements, and relief over the US government shutdown resolution. Australia’s employment data was the standout positive surprise, with 42,200 jobs added versus 20,000 expected and unemployment falling to 4.3%. UK GDP disappointed at 0.0% month-over-month versus 0.1% forecast. Japan’s producer prices rose 2.7% year-over-year, beating the 2.5% estimate.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
As European and US trading sessions commence on November 13, 2025, traders face a complex landscape of mixed economic signals and policy uncertainty. Australian employment strength contrasts sharply with UK growth disappointment, while US markets celebrate record highs amid government shutdown resolution hopes. Central banks maintain divergent policy stances, with the Fed signaling caution on further cuts despite market expectations, the ECB holding steady, and the BoE increasingly likely to cut in December.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar faces a complex landscape marked by deteriorating labor market conditions, uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, and the recent resolution of the record government shutdown. While trading near 99.5 on the DXY, the greenback remains under pressure from weak employment data indicating substantial private-sector job losses and growing expectations of a rate cut in December.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s performance reflects a convergence of supportive factors that extend beyond typical safe-haven dynamics. The precious metal is benefiting from elevated Fed rate-cut expectations (64-68% probability for December), dollar weakness (down 0.5% to 99.67), potential US government shutdown resolution enabling delayed economic data releases, sustained central bank buying (634 tonnes year-to-date), and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro faces a complex environment characterized by moderating inflation approaching the ECB’s 2% target, diverging monetary policies with the Federal Reserve, and mixed economic signals across the eurozone. While inflation has eased to 2.1% and overall GDP growth exceeded expectations at 0.2% quarterly, persistent challenges remain in Germany’s economy, sticky services inflation, and ongoing fiscal consolidation pressures..

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, aided by stable banking sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc is strengthening significantly, driven by expectations of an imminent U.S.–Switzerland trade deal that would reduce tariffs from 39% to 15%, easing a major pressure point on the Swiss economy. The franc continues to benefit from safe-haven flows amid global uncertainty, further supported by the SNB’s commitment to maintaining zero interest rates for the foreseeable future rather than cutting into negative territory.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

GDP m/m (7:00 am GMT)

Prelim GDP q/q (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound faces a challenging environment marked by weakening economic growth, deteriorating labour market conditions, and persistent inflation, which complicates the Bank of England’s policy response. The combination of Q3 GDP slowing to 0.2%, unemployment rising to a four-year high of 5%, and markets pricing in an 80-90% probability of a December rate cut has driven sterling to seven-month lows against the dollar. With the crucial Autumn Budget just two weeks away and political uncertainty adding to market nervousness, the pound is likely to remain under pressure in the near term.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted by a majority of 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar faces a challenging environment, balancing between modest recovery from seven-month lows and persistent structural headwinds. While surprise job gains and declining unemployment have provided near-term support, the currency remains pressured by elevated trade uncertainty with the US, weak oil prices, sluggish economic growth projections, and stubborn core inflation that limits the BoC’s policy flexibility. The central bank’s signal that it has likely finished cutting rates offers some stability, but the ongoing tariff war and its recessionary risks continue to cast a shadow over the loonie’s medium-term outlook.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to cap overall resale volumes, leading to only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Thursday’s oil market reflects a fundamental shift in supply-demand expectations. OPEC’s acknowledgment of a Q3 2025 supply surplus and balanced 2026 outlook, combined with rising U.S. inventories and a strengthening dollar, has pushed prices to three-week lows. While U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and Indian refiners seeking alternative supplies provide some support, the structural oversupply concerns and persistent dollar strength suggest continued downward pressure on crude prices in the near term.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 13 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior -1.2%; revised to -1.1%

Euro area industrial output bounced back at the end of Q3 but less than estimated. The breakdown shows an increase in production for intermediate goods (+0.3%), energy (+1.2%), and capital goods (+0.3%). That is slightly offset by declines in production for durable consumer goods (-0.5%) and non-durable consumer goods (-2.6%).

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.