Articles

The USDCAD has run to the upside extending above a swing level near 1.4079, but then found willing sellers against another swing level at 1.4105.

IN the video above, I take a look at the USDCAD from a technical perspective and outline what would give traders some cause for pause after the recent run higher this week.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Ukraine Pres. Zelenskyy:

• Agreed to work on the US draft plan to end the war
• Ready to work with the US and Europe for peace.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Google is on a roll.

They releases Gemini 3 this week to impressive reviews. They have been hinting at a follow up to the impressive Nano Banana 1 image generation and editing tool for a couple weeks, including the image above from a lead at their AI Studio. Now it’s out.

I’ll give it a try but the way Google is going, I expect it to be impressive.

“It’s incredible at infographics. It can make slide decks. It can take
up to 14 different images, or five different characters, and sort of
keep that character consistency,” Josh Woodward, vice president of Google Labs and Gemini, told CNBC.

Early indications are that it can produce 4K images and is impressive in adding text to dynamic images. It’s built on Gemini 3.

It appears to have already been rolled out, as I have it on Gemini Pro. Here is how it sees the Fed Chairman.

Alphabet shares are up 3.7% today after touching a record high (then fading) yesterday.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 4.06m
• Sales +1.2% vs +1.3% prior
• Inventory at 4.4 months
• Median home prices +2.1% vs Oct 2024

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -14.2

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Both had in-depth exchanges on trade ties
• Two sides should manager the uncertainties in trade ties
• Stated China’s stance on Nexperia

It’s odds that they’re back talking again and could indicate some fresh friction.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Walmart shares are up 3.6% in the pre-market following today’s earnings report. I think this report is probably the best reading on the consumer that we will get before the next Federal Reserve meeting.

The verdict? Pretty good but with some caveats.

Comp sales were up 4.5% in the US and the company raises its outlook for sales growth for the year to 4.8-5.1% (from 3.75-4.75%). The comp sales consensus estimate was 3.8%.

That’s all good but the conference call touched on some familiar themes. Company officials said lower income families have been under additional pressure ‘of late’ and that higher income families are ‘choosing to shop with us more often’. The company said that two-thirds of its growth came from households earning more than $100,000.

Internationally, overall sales rose 10.8% y/y. Mexican same-store sales rose 3.9% compared to 4.4% in the prior quarter. In Canada, comp sales rose 5.0%, highlighting other numbers we’ve seen that show surprising Canadian consumer strength, though WMT noted there was strength in food and consumables.

China comp sales were up 13.8% but that’s a big step down from 21.5% in the prior quarter.

Yesterday, Target reported poor numbers and it’s clear that WMT is taking customers from them. That makes reading the overall economic signals a bit tricky as it’s not clear that WMT’s improving sales is macroeconomic or competitive.

Still, after weak sales numbers from TGT, HD and LOW, this is a better sign for the consumer.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior +22K (revised to -4K)

• Private Payrolls +97K vs +62K expected. Prior 38k

• Manufacturing Payrolls: -6K vs -8K expected. Prior -12k.

• Government Payrolls +22K vs -16K prior

• Unemployment Rate 4.4% vs 4.3% expected. Prior 4.3%

• Unrounded unemployment 4.440% vs 4.324%

• Average Earnings MoM +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Prior 0.3%

• Average Earnings YoY +3.8% vs +3.7% expected. Prior 3.7%

• Average Workweek Hours 34.2K vs 34.2 expected Prior 34.2

• Labor Force Participation Rate 62.4% vs 62.3% prior

• U6 Underemployment 8.0% vs 8.1% prior

• Two-month net revision -33K

This is the first jobs report since the government shutdown. This was initially scheduled for just a few days after the shutdown but was cancelled and now finally rescheduled. This is also the last jobs report before the Dec 10 FOMC decision. The market is pricing in just a 21% chance of a December rate cut and it’s hard to see how this report could change that.

The climb in the unemployment rate led to some rise in Fed cut odds but I’d be skeptical about that as it came with rising participation. Fed officials will see this as generally good news and certainly not a reason to cut

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -12.8

Details:

• Employment: vs +4.6 last month

• Prices paid: vs +49.2 last month

• New orders: vs +18.2 last month

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior week 232K
• Initial jobless claims 220K vs 230K estimate
• 4-week MA 224.25K vs 227.25K prior
• Continuing claims 1.974M vs estimate 1.951M. Prior week 1.957M
• 4-week moving average 1.960M vs 1.954M the prior week.

Like the US jobs report for September, this report is also not showing job weakness.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +0.8% (revised to +1.0%)
• Prices y/y +6.0% vs +5.5% prior (revised to +5.7%)
• Raw materials price index +1.6% m/m vs +1.7% prior

These are hot numbers. The Bank of Canada has already moved to the sidelines and one Canadian bank is now talking about rate hikes next year.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• UK November CBI trends total orders -37 vs -33 expected
• Eurozone September construction output -0.5% vs -0.1% m/m prior
• ECB’s Makhlouf: I’m comfortable with where monetary policy is
• European indices see green at the open as risk sentiment improves
• FX option expiries for 20 November 10am New York cut
• Germany October PPI 0.1% vs 0.0% m/m expected
• BoJ’s Koeda: Will get more information on direction of next year’s wage negotiations
• What are the main events for today?

It’s been a very boring session with very limited newsflow. We just got a couple of low tier data releases that didn’t move the markets at all, and ECB’s Makhlouf reaffirming once again the neutral central bank stance.

The markets have been fairly rangebound. The US equities erased some of the gains triggered by the strong Nvidia Q3 earnings. The US dollar is mixed but on net, positive on the day. Treasury yields are the highs of the two-week ranges. Gold is a bit in the negative, while oil recovered almost half of yesterday’s losses.

In the American session, all eyes will be on the September NFP report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. The NFP is expected at 50K vs 22K prior with the Unemployment Rate
remaining unchanged at 4.3%. The Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected
at 3.7% vs 3.7% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.3%
prior.

The Initial Claims are expected at 230K, while the Continuing Claims are seen at 1951K.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.