• Prior week 224K revised to 224K
• The 4-week moving average was 216,750, a decrease of 750
  from the previous week’s unrevised average of 217,500
• Continuing claims 1.923M vs 1.900 estimate.
• Prior week 1.897M revised to 1.885M
• The 4-week
  moving average was 1,893,750, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s
  average was revised down by 3,000 from 1,902,000 to 1,899,000.

Initial jobless claims track the weekly number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time and are one of the most timely indicators of U.S. labor-market health and overall economic momentum. Rising claims can signal increasing job losses and a slowing economy, while declining claims suggest that hiring is outpacing layoffs, pointing to underlying economic strength. Released every Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor, the report is closely watched by economists and markets alike, with particular emphasis on the four-week moving average, which helps smooth out weekly volatility and provides a clearer view of underlying labor-market trends.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending December 13 were in Rhode Island (+452), West Virginia
(+325), Connecticut (+128), Mississippi (+57), and New Mexico (+51), while the largest decreases were in Illinois
(-7,242), New York (-5,720), Pennsylvania (-5,129), Minnesota (-4,361), and Georgia (-4,325).

Yesterday, ADP released their weekly 4-week moving average:

• ADP Pulse for the week ending December 6 comes in at 11.5K vs a revised 17.5K last week

The ADP released their monthly report for November earlier in the month and it showed a net decline for the month at 32K. The report yesterday suggests a rebound in December.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

I spoke about this issue back in November already here: Here’s another reason why the AI trade might need a bit of rethinking

So, is 2026 going to be the year where that narrative takes over markets and we all have to redefine what it means to be in the AI trade?

Perhaps so. In reading the backdrop to the linked article above, it is clear that the real bottleneck and limitation to the development of AI isn’t coding or silicon. It’s all about electrical power and the physical capacity to access it.

In repeating the quote from Microsoft CEO, Satya Nadella:

“The biggest issue we’re now having is not a compute glut. It’s power. You may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that you can’t plug in – in fact, that is my problem today. It’s not a supply issue of chips. It is actually the fact that I don’t have warm shells to plug into.”

As everyone is chasing data centers now, the lead time and wait time to get all of that done has increased dramatically. Some of the wait time has even stretched out to five to seven years. And let’s be real, the tech companies involved don’t have that kind of time to wait and find out.

As such, some of them are pretty much forced to become their own utility providers. That is not to mention the likes of Nvidia also facing risks of supplying warehouse after warehouse full of chips that cannot be turned on because of capacity issues.

If the first half of the AI rally since 2023 was all about chips and faster, more intelligent programming, 2026 might be the year it all gets redefined to focus on the more bland stuff that is used to make and power these machines. It might just be the year of electrical transformers and the power grid.

And in focusing on that, firms like Vertiv, Schneider, Eaton, and perhaps even Siemens might steal more headlines in due time. If anything, keep an eye out on Schneider and Eaton as they have an edge in manufacturing their own circuit breakers.

As for Vertiv, the firm saw its share price hit a low of $53.60 earlier in the year but has risen by over 200% now to $166.25. Talk about a surge.

And amid all these names, let’s not forget to point to the potential surge in copper prices that could take place if this narrative takes hold. In a world that’s also involving electric vehicles, the AI industry now has to compete as well for the same raw materials in keeping up with the lightning speed progress.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prop Trading Challenges for Newbies: How to Spot Unfair Rules and Platform Risk Before You Pay

If you are taking prop trading challenges, you are not only trading the market. You are also trading the prop firm’s rules, technology, and support quality.

Two fresh examples show why this matters:

• A major futures prop firm faced trader backlash after repeated platform outages and trading anomalies that reportedly left some traders unable to open or close positions. The CEO publicly acknowledged the issue and referenced a January deadline to make things right.

• Another futures prop firm faced a wave of complaints after a reported retroactive rule change that affected things like trade holding time and profit split, with traders claiming trades that were valid under the old rules got penalized under the new ones. This is like the court telliing you, you are now charged for doing something legal yesterday, after changing the rule today. Talk about absurd, right?

If you want the original reporting, here are the two Finance Magnates articles:

• Topstep Faces Prop Traders’ Wrath due to Repeated Outages, CEO Sets January Deadline for a Fix

• Prop Firm FundingTicks Faces Massive Backlash after “Retroactive Rule Change”

Below is a newbie-friendly guide to protect yourself from the 2 biggest non-market risks in prop trading: platform failures and rule surprises.

First, a quick glossary (so the rest makes sense)

• Challenge / evaluation: The paid phase where you must hit profit targets while obeying risk rules.

• Funded account: The phase after passing the evaluation (some firms call it funded, some call it “performance” or “pro”).

• Profit split: How much of your profits you keep (example: 80% to trader, 20% to firm).

• Drawdown: The max loss allowed. This is usually what fails accounts, not the profit target.

• Scalping: Very short-term trading aiming for small moves, often held seconds to minutes.

• Minimum hold time: A rule that forces you to keep trades open at least X time (example: one minute). This directly impacts scalpers.

The 2 hidden risks that can blow a challenge (even if your strategy is good)

Risk 1: Platform outages and execution problems

If a platform freezes, rejects orders, or disconnects at the wrong time, it can do real damage:

• you cannot enter

• you cannot exit

• you cannot manage risk

• your account can hit drawdown even if your trade idea was fine

Finance Magnates reported that traders complained about being unable to open or close positions during outages on Topstep’s only platform, TopstepX, and some traders claimed accounts were blown due to those issues.

Important detail for beginners: you can have the best setup in the world, but if you cannot execute, your edge does not matter.

What to look for before buying a challenge:

• Does the firm rely on a single platform only?

• Do they have a public track record of incidents and how they handle them?

• When incidents happen, do they acknowledge quickly and clearly?

• Do they have a consistent policy for disputes tied to outages?

In the Topstep story, Finance Magnates noted that Trustpilot scores fell and that the company responded to only a small portion of negative reviews, which matters because it is one proxy for how seriously a firm treats support and reputation.

Risk 2: Rule changes, especially retroactive ones

Rules can change in any business. The key question is how they change, and whether they apply to accounts that were opened under earlier terms.

Finance Magnates reported that FundingTicks faced backlash after reportedly changing rules retroactively, including a minimum one-minute hold time and a reduction in profit split.

Why this is a big deal:

• If rules are applied retroactively, trades that were valid yesterday can be punished today.

• Your past trading can be re-judged under new constraints.

• Your expected payouts can change even if you did nothing “wrong” under the rules you agreed to.

In that same report, Finance Magnates described traders claiming that accounts were breached or profits reduced if trades violated the current rules, even if those trades occurred before the change.

For newbies, the simple takeaway is this:

• Your biggest risk is not always your strategy.

• Sometimes the risk is whether the goalposts move after you already started running.

A simple “Prop Firm Due Diligence Checklist” for challenge takers

Use this before you pay for any evaluation.

A) Technology and uptime checks

• Do they offer more than one trading platform, or is it a single point of failure?

• Do they post incident updates (Discord, status page, email updates)?

• Do traders report frequent order issues, disconnects, or slippage spikes?

• Do they have a clear dispute process when platform issues occur?

Finance Magnates reported trader complaints of not being able to open or close positions during outages in the Topstep situation.

B) Rule stability checks

• Do they clearly state when new rules take effect?

• Do they explicitly say whether rules apply to existing accounts?

• Do they change core rules often (hold times, payout rules, profit split, withdrawal caps)?

• Do they provide a change log or versioning, or do you have to “discover” changes?

In the FundingTicks case, the report listed multiple rule changes including the one-minute minimum hold period and a change in profit split compared with earlier terms.

C) Incentives check (this matters more than most people think)

Prop firms make money in different ways. Some earn mostly from:

• challenge fees

• resets and retries

• data, partnerships, and platform economics

• successful traders who scale

Here is my personal note on how I look at it:
I pay close attention to which firms actually provide a real path to trading on live accounts, or at least use some form of risk mirroring (where trades may be replicated or risk-managed beyond a purely simulated environment), versus firms that appear to keep traders in simulated environments indefinitely. I also watch which firms seem genuinely interested in developing real traders, not just collecting reset revenues.

This does not require you to “know the inside story.” You can often infer a lot from:

• how transparent they are about account progression

• how consistent payouts are handled

• how they treat traders during problems

• how often rules shift in ways that reduce payouts

What to do if a platform outage happens during your challenge

This is practical and important.

1. Screenshot and screen record

• include timestamps

• capture the error, rejected orders, disconnect messages, and your open positions

2. Export your trade logs

• fills, order history, and account statements

3. Save the firm’s announcements

• Discord messages, status updates, emails

4. Contact support immediately

• keep it factual

• include evidence

• ask what remedy exists if the outage is acknowledged

In the Topstep report, Finance Magnates noted claims that the firm did not always acknowledge outages, which is exactly why documentation matters.

What to do if rules change mid-challenge

1. Stop trading and reread the rules
   This is boring but smart. Most challenge failures come from breaking a rule by accident.

2. Ask one direct question
   “Do the new rules apply to my existing account, including past trades?”

3. Get the answer in writing
   Ticket response, email, or a saved official message.

4. Decide whether to continue
   If the rule change destroys your style (example: a one-minute hold time when you scalp), it can be cheaper to pause than to fight the rules.

Finance Magnates reported that the FundingTicks changes included a minimum one-minute hold time for scalpers, which can directly impact short-term trading styles.

A friendly invitation if you want trade ideas and prop-friendly setups

If you want a place to follow periodic trade ideas (including scalp-style ideas that can fit prop trading rules depending on the firm), you are welcome to join the @investingLiveStocks Telegram channel here:
https://t.me/investingLiveStocks

It is a good way to stay in the loop and compare how different firms’ rules affect real-world execution.

Final reminder for newbies (keep this mindset)

Prop challenges are not only about being right on direction.
They are about surviving a ruleset consistently.

Your goal is to choose a firm where:

• the platform is reliable enough that you can manage risk

• the rules are stable enough that you can build a repeatable process

• the business model aligns with keeping good traders trading

And when drama hits the industry, treat it as a learning moment, not entertainment.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 25/12/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 24 December 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
During today’s Asia session, markets traded off the prior US data pulse rather than any new high‑impact regional releases, with US Q3 GDP at 4.3% and softer durable goods framing a constructive “solid growth, moderating inflation” backdrop for risk assets. Asian equities, led by the Nikkei, Kospi and Hang Seng futures, largely followed Wall Street higher, while antipodean currencies outperformed the dollar, and USDJPY stayed sensitive to the recent BoJ shift and intervention rhetoric. 

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Into today’s European and shortened U.S. session, the main tradable catalysts are U.S. weekly jobless claims and housing/mortgage data, set against a backdrop of modestly dovish Fed commentary, limited 2025 rate‑cut pricing, and still‑elevated equity indices. European data are mostly second‑tier sentiment prints, so the dollar, front‑end Treasury yields, and U.S. equities are likely to drive the cross‑asset tone, with any labour-market softness quickly reviving rate‑cut expectations and pressuring the dollar.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Dollar heads into Wednesday on the back foot, with the Dollar Index hovering just under 98 after weeks of steady declines driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2026 and a broader shift away from Dollar strength. Resilient U.S. growth data have not altered this narrative, as markets instead price in a softer policy path and anticipate some cooling in the labor market next year, leaving EUR, GBP, and CHF modestly stronger while USD/CAD stabilizes.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labour market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualised pace in Q2 2025, according to revised estimates. However, Q3 and Q4 are expected to face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions, such as the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signalling a gradual disinflation path; updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labour market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for  27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is extending its extraordinary 2025 rally today, trading just under or around 4,500 USD per ounce after notching fresh all‑time highs in recent sessions. The move reflects intense safe‑haven demand, expectations of rate cuts, and a weaker dollar, which together have pushed the metal roughly 70% higher year‑to‑date and about 9% over the last month.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

Going into Wednesday, the euro is trading on a firm footing, with EUR/USD hovering near late‑December highs around the upper‑1.17s after reaching its strongest level of the month on 23 December. The latest ECB meeting left rates unchanged, but upgraded growth projections to roughly 1.4% for 2025 and confirmed that inflation is moving closer to target, convincing markets that policy is effectively on hold and that the bar for fresh cuts is high.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is widely expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 17–18 December 2025 meeting, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40% and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This would reflect policymakers’ assessment that the current policy stance remains broadly consistent with medium‑term price stability, while inflation hovers close to the 2% target and the economy expands at a modest pace. Market pricing and recent ECB commentary suggest a high “option value” in staying on hold, with no clear pre‑set path for the next move amid two‑sided risks around growth and inflation.
• Recent indicators point to broadly stable price dynamics around the ECB’s target. Headline HICP inflation is projected to hover near 2% through late 2025, with earlier energy‑related disinflation largely behind and food price pressures contained compared with previous years. Services and wage inflation remain somewhat firmer than anticipated, but the trend is one of gradual moderation, consistent with a scenario in which inflation stabilizes around but not persistently above 2% over the medium term.
• Eurosystem staff projections to be released in December are expected to show only small revisions from the September exercise, maintaining a profile of headline inflation close to 2% in 2025, dipping slightly below in 2026, and returning near target in 2027. Soft producer prices, fading pipeline cost pressures, and anchored long‑term inflation expectations limit upside risks, though officials continue to flag uncertainty from geopolitical tensions, commodity price shocks, and fiscal policy choices.
• Euro area GDP growth remains subdued but resilient, with most forecasters and survey‑based indicators pointing to an expansion around 1 — 1.25% in 2025 and 2026, followed by a similar pace into 2027. PMIs and confidence surveys suggest activity has stabilised after earlier weakness, with modest support from public investment and improving external demand offsetting soft private consumption and investment.
• The labour market remains tight in aggregate, with unemployment rates close to multi‑decade lows and participation relatively high, even as job creation has slowed from its earlier peak. Real income growth has turned slightly positive again as inflation normalises, underpinning household spending, while financing conditions, though tighter than in the pre‑hiking era, remain consistent with a gradual expansion in credit to households and firms.
• Business sentiment is mixed, reflecting uncertainty around global trade, the policy outlook in the United States, and the potential impact of future tariff or industrial policy shifts. At the same time, easing supply‑chain costs and a relatively competitive euro exchange rate versus major trading partners provide support to manufacturing and export‑oriented sectors at the margin.​
• The Governing Council is expected to reiterate that future decisions will remain data-dependent and taken meeting by meeting, based on an integrated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission. Officials have recently stressed that both further hikes and eventual cuts remain contingent on incoming data, implying no commitment to a particular path and a readiness to adjust if inflation or growth diverge materially from baseline projections.
• Balance sheet normalisation is set to continue gradually and predictably, with the stock of assets under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have already been halted or scaled back in line with prior guidance. The ECB is expected to confirm that the current pace of portfolio runoff remains appropriate, supporting a slow withdrawal of monetary accommodation without disrupting market functioning.
• The next meeting is on 4 to 5 January 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc enters Wednesday in a position of continued strength, with USD/CHF trading just under 0.79 amid a clear short‑term bearish structure for the pair. The SNB’s decision to hold rates at 0% while inflation undershoots and the economy stabilizes, combined with persistent safe‑haven flows linked to global and US policy uncertainty, is keeping CHF well bid against the dollar and limiting upside in USD/CHF.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its 11 December 2025 monetary policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, extending the pause that began in September as the Governing Board judges that current settings are sufficient to keep inflation near, but still below, its target while avoiding an unnecessary move into negative rates.
• Recent data show that the tentative rebound in Swiss inflation has stalled, with headline CPI easing from 0.1% year‑on‑year in October to 0.0% in November and core inflation slipping to about 0.4%, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain very weak and that deflation risks, while contained, have not fully disappeared.
• The SNB’s conditional inflation forecast is likely to remain close to the September projections, with inflation still seen averaging roughly 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027 under an unchanged policy rate path, though the latest CPI prints argue for a slightly lower near‑term profile and keep open the option of renewed easing if activity or prices weaken further.
• The global backdrop has deteriorated further, as continuing U.S. tariff actions and softer external demand weigh on world trade, while uncertainty in key European and U.S. markets for Swiss exports persists, leaving the SNB cautious about the growth outlook despite Switzerland’s relatively resilient domestic demand.
• Business and labour-market sentiment in export‑oriented manufacturing remains subdued, with firms reporting pressure on margins from the still‑strong franc and softer foreign orders, although the broader economy is still expected to grow at around 1–1.5% in 2025 and unemployment only drifting up gradually from low levels.
• The SNB continues to stress its willingness to act if deflation risks re‑emerge, reiterating that it can ease policy through renewed rate cuts or targeted foreign‑exchange intervention if necessary, while also highlighting its commitment to transparent communication, including the publication of detailed minutes from recent assessments and ongoing dialogue with international partners on FX policy

The next meeting is on 19 March 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Pound is trading firm into holding just below the 1.35 handle against the US Dollar as year‑end dollar softness and a relatively hawkish Bank of England backdrop keep GBP supported. GBP/USD is hovering around 1.348 — 1.349 after touching its highest levels in roughly 11 weeks, with the spot quoted near 1.3489 on 23 December and only modestly off that level in late Tuesday trade.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on 18 December 2025, with the current Bank Rate standing at 4.00 per cent after being held in a close 5–4 vote at the 5 November meeting. Market pricing and analyst commentary point to a high risk of a 25‑basis‑point cut to 3.75 per cent, but this remains conditional on incoming inflation and labour‑market data, so the December note should be treated as pre‑decision guidance rather than an ex‑post summary.
• The BoE is expected to leave its quantitative tightening (QT) framework broadly unchanged through year‑end, maintaining the lower reduction pace in gilt holdings that was set earlier in 2025. Official communications still characterise the existing QT path as consistent with a restrictive stance, with policymakers stressing that balance‑sheet reduction will remain gradual and sensitive to market‑liquidity conditions.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 3.6 per cent year‑on‑year in October 2025, down from 3.8 per cent in September, helped by softer energy and goods prices, though it remains almost twice the 2 per cent target. Underlying inflation pressures, particularly in services, have continued to moderate only slowly, so the MPC’s central projection still envisages inflation moving closer to, but not yet reaching, 3 per cent over the course of 2026, contingent on further normalisation in energy and wage dynamics.
• UK economic activity remains weak heading into the December meeting, with the labour market showing further signs of slackening. The unemployment rate has risen toward just above 5 per cent on the latest three‑month figures to October, while overall regular pay growth has slowed to around the mid‑4 per cent range, reinforcing the view that domestic cost pressures are gradually easing.
• External conditions continue to cloud the outlook, with fragile global growth and fluctuating commodity prices contributing to bouts of financial‑market volatility. The MPC has highlighted that renewed global energy or food price shocks could temporarily slow the pace of disinflation, but such risks are currently judged unlikely to derail the medium‑term downward trajectory for inflation if domestic demand stays subdued.
• The balance of risks around the inflation outlook remains finely poised. Downside risks are linked to persistently weak domestic demand and rising unemployment, while upside risks come from still‑elevated inflation expectations, sticky services inflation, and the possibility that structural changes in the labour market leave less slack than conventional indicators suggest.
• Overall, the MPC’s stance going into December is restrictive but increasingly open to a gradual easing cycle, with any rate cuts expected to be measured and data‑dependent. Policymakers have reiterated that the Bank Rate will need to stay in restrictive territory until they are confident inflation is on a sustainable path back to the 2 per cent target, and they have signalled that the profile of cuts, once started, is likely to be shallow rather than rapid.
• The next meeting is on 5 February 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

Today, the Canadian dollar is trading modestly stronger in a relatively quiet pre‑holiday session, keeping USD/CAD around the mid‑1.36s–1.37s after touching a five‑month low near 1.3675 on rising Fed rate‑cut expectations. Recent Canadian GDP data showed a 0.3% contraction in October, but the loonie actually inched higher as markets viewed the release as consistent with the Bank of Canada’s cautious, hold‑for‑now stance.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council left the target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at its 10 December 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations and signalling that the earlier easing cycle has likely concluded. The Bank noted that while global tariff tensions and trade uncertainty persist, the external backdrop has stabilised somewhat, reducing the need for additional insurance cuts even as world trade remains fragile.
• The Council acknowledged that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and tariffs continues to weigh on business sentiment, but recent data show Canadian manufacturing and goods exports holding up better than anticipated. Surveys cited by the Bank suggest export order books have stopped deteriorating, with firms reporting some rebuilding of backlogs despite still‑cautious capital spending plans.
• Canada’s economy rebounded more strongly than expected in the third quarter, with real GDP expanding at an annualised pace of about 2.6% after a 1.8% contraction in Q2, largely on the back of higher crude exports and government spending. Monthly data show output rising 0.2% in September, though flash estimates point to a softer start to Q4 as some sectors give back earlier gains.
• Service sector activity has firmed, with indicators showing the services PMI back above the 50 threshold and broadening gains in business and professional services. However, consumer-facing categories remain mixed, as still‑elevated price levels and only modest real income growth keep a lid on discretionary spending even as tourism and technology‑related services expand.
• Housing markets have continued to stabilise, with national resale activity and prices edging higher through the autumn alongside the earlier decline in borrowing costs. The Bank noted that while some major urban centres are seeing renewed price pressures, tighter underwriting standards and still‑high affordability constraints are expected to cap the pace of any rebound.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 2.2% year over year in October and is estimated to have remained near that rate in November, keeping it slightly above the 2% target but comfortably within the 1%–3% control range. Core measures have drifted lower, with CPI‑median and CPI‑trim around 3% or below, reinforcing the assessment that underlying price pressures are gradually moderating even as gasoline and some shelter components remain volatile.
• The Governing Council reiterated that the current policy rate is “about the right level” to keep inflation close to target while supporting the economy through a period of structural adjustment, and it signalled a shift away from near‑term easing expectations. While the Bank did not rule out future adjustments, officials stressed that, barring a material downside surprise to growth or inflation, further rate cuts are unlikely before 2026, and attention is now focused on the durability of the recovery and the evolution of core inflation.
• The next meeting is on 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are edging higher on Wednesday, with Brent holding just above 62 USD and WTI around the high‑50s as the market extends a five‑day rally driven by stronger US economic data and renewed supply risk premium. The up-move follows a deep year-on-year decline in prices amid robust OPEC and non‑OPEC output and inventories that remain above last year but below the 2015–2019 norm, signalling a market that is better supplied but not oversaturated.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 24 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 24 December 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

During the latest U.S. session, the dominant theme was a stronger‑than‑expected growth print against a backdrop of still‑sticky inflation, which kept equities hovering near records but capped further upside as traders recalibrated Fed easing hopes. Growth‑sensitive assets such as copper and cyclicals found support, while rate‑sensitive instruments, including index futures and the dollar, adjusted to a “higher for longer” policy narrative even as safe‑haven metals like gold continued to benefit from broader macro and geopolitical risks.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders on Wednesday will be trading into a thin, holiday‑shortened session, with attention on Japan’s data and BoJ operations, early closures in Hong Kong, and positioning ahead of key U.S. GDP and jobless claims later in the week. Risk sentiment in Asia is broadly constructive but muted, with recent gains in regional equities supported by prior strength in U.S. tech and AI names and expectations of a calm year‑end despite holiday‑thinned liquidity.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Into Wednesday, the Dollar is on the back foot, with the Dollar Index trading just below 98 and sitting near an 11‑week low after a 2% monthly and roughly 9% yearly slide, as cooling US inflation bolsters expectations for further Fed rate cuts and encourages investors to rotate into other currencies and safe‑haven assets. In the majors, EUR/USD is holding an upward trend around 1.17 with scope to retest 1.18, while GBP/USD trades above 1.34 with the 1.35–1.36 zone in view, reflecting the Dollar’s broad underperformance in G10 FX

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path. Updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is entering Wednesday, trading just below its recent record highs above 4,400 USD per ounce, with XAUUSD holding a strong uptrend after clearing key resistance and riding a 70%‑plus year‑on‑year surge. The move remains driven by expectations of further US rate cuts, a softer dollar, intense central‑bank and ETF demand, and ongoing geopolitical tensions that keep safe‑haven interest elevated even as holiday liquidity dampens intraday volatility.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

Into Wednesday, the Australian dollar is holding near recent highs against the US dollar, trading in the mid‑0.66s after a roughly 3% monthly and 6–7% yearly appreciation, but facing persistent resistance around 0.67 as holiday‑thinned markets curb follow‑through. The backdrop is a mix of modest Australian growth, sticky but easing inflation, and a softening labour market, set against expectations that the Federal Reserve will eventually tilt more dovishly, which together have supported AUD while keeping traders sensitive to downside risks if global risk appetite fades or key supports in the low‑0.64s give way.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November 2025 policy meeting, adopting a cautious tone amid a surprise uptick in inflation data for the September quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive pause since the 25 basis point cut in August. The Board attributed some of the inflation rise to temporary factors like higher petrol prices and council rates, but noted signs of more persistent pressures from consumer demand.​
• Policymakers emphasized vigilance on inflation, with trimmed mean inflation expected to remain elevated in the near term before nearing the 2–3% target midpoint by mid-2027. Recent data showed underlying inflation staying above target until at least the second half of 2026, prompting upward revisions to forecasts. Capacity pressures are seen as slightly more pronounced than previously assessed, delaying any easing.
• Headline CPI for the September quarter exceeded expectations, driven partly by temporary items, while underlying measures signal ongoing stickiness. The shift to monthly CPI reporting, with the first full edition in November 2025, will enhance real-time inflation monitoring. Housing and services remain resilient contributors to price pressures.
• Domestic demand shows firmness in services alongside below-trend growth elsewhere, with capacity pressures not expected to ease significantly. The labor market is gradually softening, with unemployment projected to stabilize around 4.4%, though wage growth and productivity dynamics keep unit labor costs a concern. Household spending faces headwinds from high borrowing costs.​
• Global risks include geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility, set against modestly revised-up world growth outlooks. The Board describes its policy as mildly restrictive and data-dependent, balancing inflation control with employment goals. No rate hike was considered despite the inflation surprise.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive to address lingering price stability risks amid household and global vulnerabilities. Communications reaffirm the dual mandate of 2–3% inflation and full employment, with readiness to adjust based on incoming data.​
• Market expectations point to the cash rate holding through early 2026, with a possible modest cut to 3.3% mid-year if inflation eases as forecast. The new monthly CPI data will be key for timely insights.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 2 to 3 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

Into Wednesday, the Kiwi is trading with a slightly positive bias but without a clear breakout, as solid Q3 growth and supportive regulatory tweaks are offset by the RBNZ’s commitment to keep rates on hold well into 2026 and by generally firm global dollar conditions. This leaves NZD priced for a cautious recovery: supported on dips by improving domestic data and expectations that easier bank capital rules will gradually filter into cheaper credit, yet capped on rallies by central‑bank rhetoric that downplays the prospect of near‑term tightening.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen is stabilizing and modestly firmer after officials in Tokyo delivered their strongest verbal warnings yet that recent yen weakness is out of line with fundamentals, pushing USD/JPY back toward the mid‑150s after it flirted with higher levels post‑BoJ. The backdrop is a BoJ that has finally lifted rates to a three‑decade high but is signalling only gradual further tightening, so wide yield gaps with the US remain, and speculative yen selling is still attractive on rallies.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan will meet on 18–19 December with markets almost fully pricing a 25-basis-point hike, which would raise the short-term policy rate from 0.50% to around 0.75%, as the bank moves further away from its ultra-loose stance while stressing that any tightening will remain gradual and data-dependent.
• The BOJ is expected to continue guiding the uncollateralized overnight call rate in a narrow band around the new policy rate, near 0.75%, while signaling that the pace and timing of any additional hikes will depend on how past increases affect bank lending, corporate financing conditions, and overall economic activity.
• The quarterly path of JGB purchases remains on a pre-announced, gradual taper: outright purchases are being reduced by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, then by roughly ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, with the bank still aiming for JGB purchases to settle near ¥2 trillion in Q1 2027 and retaining flexibility to adjust the pace if market functioning or yield volatility deteriorate.
• Japan’s economy has softened in the near term, with Q3 2025 GDP contracting at an annualized pace of about 2.3% as weaker residential investment and external demand weighed on activity, even as business sentiment in manufacturing has recently improved to a roughly four-year high.
• Core consumer inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to around 3.0% year-on-year in October, up from 2.9% in September and remaining above the BOJ’s 2% target, while the “core-core” measure excluding both fresh food and energy rose to about 3.1%, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures.
• In the very near term, some input-cost pressures are easing as earlier import price surges fade, but services inflation linked to labor shortages, along with steady wage gains, continues to support broader price momentum; firms’ and households’ medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored slightly above 2%, keeping short-term inflation risks tilted to the upside.
• For the coming quarters, the BOJ assesses that real growth will likely run below potential as the economy digests tighter financial conditions and past yen depreciation, though accommodative real rates, positive real wage growth, and improving corporate sentiment should help sustain a modest recovery in private consumption and business investment.
• Over the medium term, as overseas demand stabilizes and domestic labor markets remain tight, the BOJ expects wage settlements and inflation expectations to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory around or slightly above 2%, providing room for further cautious rate normalization as long as financial conditions remain supportive and the recovery is not derailed.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 22 to 23 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices have firmed over the past couple of sessions after U.S. forces boarded a Venezuelan tanker and moved against another vessel, reigniting concerns about potential supply disruptions from that country and lifting both Brent and WTI by more than 2% on the previous trading day. As of late December 23, Brent was just under 62 USD per barrel while WTI hovered around 58 USD, but both benchmarks remain down roughly 15–17% year‑on‑year and have traded in a relatively tight range for most of 2025, reflecting an oversupplied market and “jaded” risk appetite despite geopolitical headlines.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 24 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.13%, Shanghai Composite up 0.24%, Hang Seng up 0.13% ASX down 0.38%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,522.25 (0.37%), Silver at $72.313 (1.65%), Brent Oil at $62.49 (0.18%), WTI Oil at $58.49 (0.19%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.158, UK 10-year yield at 4.5110, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8647

News & Data:

• (CAD) GDP m/m  -0.3%  to -0.3% expected
• (USD) Prelim GDP q/q  4.3%  to 3.3% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are showing a mixed performance on Wednesday, with trading volumes remaining thin across most of the region as several markets are set to close early today and remain shut on Thursday for the Christmas holiday. Positive cues from Wall Street have helped limit losses, after the S&P 500 closed at a record high overnight, supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. third-quarter GDP growth data.

The Australian market is trading lower, weighed down mainly by weakness in banking stocks. The session will end early at 2:10 p.m. local time, with markets closed on Thursday and Friday for Christmas and Boxing Day. The S&P/ASX 200 Index is down 0.38 percent at 8,762.70, while the broader All Ordinaries Index is lower by about 0.3 percent at 9,069. Major banks including National Australia Bank, Westpac, Commonwealth Bank and ANZ Bank are all trading in negative territory, losing between 0.4 and 1 percent. Mining stocks are providing some support, helped by firmer metal prices, with BHP, Fortescue Metals and Rio Tinto posting gains. Shares of Monash IVF plunged more than 11 percent after a consortium withdrew its takeover offer.

Japanese equities are trading modestly higher, although gains are capped by expectations of further interest rate hikes by the central bank. The Nikkei 225 is up about 0.1 percent, with strong gains in select metal, technology and electronics stocks.

Elsewhere in the region, China’s Shanghai Composite is up 0.16 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is gaining around 0.15 percent, and South Korea’s KOSPI is marginally higher. New Zealand stocks are slightly higher, while markets in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia are trading weaker.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Wednesday 24th December 2025: Asian Markets Trade Mixed Amid Thin Holiday Volumes first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 98.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 97.35

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 161.6% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 98.77
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1751

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1712

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1866

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 183.02

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 181.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 184.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that is supported by the 100% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8746

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8713
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8799
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3435

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3366
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3530
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 208.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 207.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 211.47
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7932

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7872
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7989
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 155.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 154.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 157.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                       

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3737

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3684

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3889

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6674

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher..

1st support: 0.6611

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6742

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5793

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5744

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5889

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 48,198.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 47,724.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,879.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 24,108

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,860.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,511.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,828.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,714.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,923.08

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 90.007.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 84,997.03

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 94,626.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3,074.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,740.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,206.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 57.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 56.87
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 60.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,368.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,262.94
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,513.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 24th December 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

So, it’s been about eight months already since “Liberation Day”. How time flies. Yet, we’re yet to see a significant bump to the overall inflation outlook in the US. Yes, higher prices have come but it hasn’t quite translated too strongly to the overall narrative.

And as we look towards 2026, how will all of this change and what will be the inflation story for the year ahead?

The thing to remember about “Liberation Day” is that higher tariffs did not have an instant impact. It took time to filter through to prices and even until today, we’re still yet to see the full extent of how those tariffs have driven up consumer prices.

Core goods inflation is the one thing that’s been slowly showing evidence of that. But otherwise, the overall inflation story is one that has been tamer than anticipated especially for all the fears surrounding Trump’s tariffs before April this year.

Come next year, be wary of the inflation mirage. No, the consumer price index (CPI) isn’t cooling in a meaningful way. Inflation isn’t going away. It’s just the fact that higher prices are here to stay and that we’re reaching a new equilibrium level in terms of where prices should be. That especially in the second half of next year.

As mentioned above, Trump’s tariffs did not have an instant impact. It’s taking well over six months for things to filter through and that’s the important thing to take note for market players.

All of this is going to impact the base effect calculation in how we derive the CPI next year, especially in the second half of the year onwards.

That in turn could see inflation data and the PCE as well drop significantly during the second half of 2026. And if the Fed hasn’t already become politically corrupt by then, it could give them an easy way out in appeasing Trump to deliver more rate cuts.

Long story short, just be wary of the impact of base effects when reading into the CPI data in the second half of next year. That will account for the impact of Trump’s tariffs that have slowly been filtering through to the economy over the last few months.

In other words, the year-on-year reading might show a cooling in terms of inflation. However, that’s just the base effect talking. As such, the monthly data will be the more important metric to scrutinise when the time comes.

Just think of it this way, tariffs caused the price of a watch to increase from $20 to $25 this year. That’s a 25% bump in “inflation”. Come the same period next year, the price might still be at $25 and the “inflation” metric will show 0% instead.

Why is all of this important?

It plays into the Fed outlook of course. How will the central bank respond to all of this?

If pushing for rate cuts in the first half of the year proves difficult, this is one avenue that they could point to in making sure that their policy fits with Trump’s agenda. That as they continue to strive towards a neutral rate of what most people seem to think it’s at around 3%.

So, should and would the Fed look through the base effects and stick to its guns on policy? Or will the new Fed chair deliver on Trump’s agenda and use this as a key selling point?

In any case, the reality of the situation will remain that lower inflation does not mean lower prices. That’s the reality of the world we’ve been living in for the past decades.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Nomura flags Asia policy split as Fed seen cutting twice in 2026
• Washington delays semiconductor tariffs as it seeks China trade truce
• KRW up: South Korea NPS activates strategic FX hedging to curb won weakness and volatility
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0471 (vs. estimate at 7.0240)
• ICYMI – Tesla sales plummet in UK and Europe as EV market turns hostile
• Japan policymakers flag inflation persistence and asset-price risks in October BoJ minutes
• Bank of Japan Services Producer Price Index (November) +2.7% y/y (expected & prior 2.7%)
• ICYMI – Rising yields force Japan to budget for higher debt-servicing costs
• Oil: Private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build vs. draw expected

Asia session summary

• Japan’s November services PPI printed as expected at an elevated 2.7% y/y

• BOJ October minutes landed but were largely overlooked after December’s rate hike

• Broad USD weakness lifted G10 FX, with JPY, AUD and KRW outperforming

• APAC equities traded mixed in thin pre-holiday conditions

• Gold and silver extended gains, with silver breaking above US$72

Data and policy signals from Japan were the early focus in Asia. Japan’s November Corporate Service Price Index , the services-sector PPI, printed in line with expectations at a still-elevated 2.7% year-on-year, reinforcing the view that underlying service-sector price pressures remain firm. The Bank of Japan also released minutes from its October policy meeting, though these attracted little attention given they pre-dated December’s far more consequential decision to lift the short-term policy rate to its highest level in around 30 years.

In FX markets, broad U.S. dollar weakness dominated price action. The dollar index remained on the back foot in holiday-thinned trade, extending losses seen earlier in the week and pushing several G10 currencies to session highs. The yen continued to strengthen, supported by recent official jawboning that reinforced authorities’ discomfort with excessive JPY weakness. The Australian dollar also advanced, while the euro and sterling pushed up toward three-month highs.

The standout move in Asia FX came from South Korea, where the won strengthened sharply after reports that the country’s pension fund had activated strategic foreign-exchange hedging measures — a development seen as adding institutional support for the currency.

Asian equity markets were mixed and largely range-bound, reflecting light volumes as traders wind down ahead of the Christmas period. Japan’s Nikkei 225 posted modest gains, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite were little changed. U.S. equity futures traded quietly overnight, hovering around flat in narrow ranges.

In commodities, precious metals extended their recent surge. Gold briefly popped above the US$4,500 level before easing back below the psychological threshold, while silver pushed decisively higher again, trading above US$72 and outperforming on the session.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary

• U.S. to impose tariffs on Chinese legacy chips, but only from June 2027

• Decision follows a year-long Section 301 investigation launched under Biden

• Delay preserves leverage while easing near-term trade tensions with China

• Move coincides with negotiations over rare earths and tech export controls

• Broader Section 232 chip tariffs remain possible but not imminent

The United States has opted to delay the imposition of new tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports until mid-2027, signalling a tactical effort to manage trade tensions with Beijing even as Washington keeps the option of tougher action firmly on the table.

News via Reuters ICYMI.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative said it would move ahead with tariffs on Chinese “legacy” or older-generation chips following a year-long Section 301 investigation, but that the measures would not take effect until June 2027. The tariff rate itself will be announced at least 30 days before implementation, preserving flexibility for future administrations.

The investigation into Chinese chip exports was launched under former President Joe Biden, which concluded that Beijing’s industrial policy amounted to an unreasonable effort to dominate the global semiconductor industry and posed a burden on U.S. commerce. The current administration under Donald Trump has now chosen to delay enforcement, a move widely seen as aimed at stabilising relations with China amid sensitive negotiations over technology and critical minerals.

China responded by opposing the planned tariffs, warning that politicising trade and technology would disrupt global supply chains and ultimately prove counterproductive. Beijing also reiterated that it would take steps to defend its interests if tariffs were imposed.

The decision to defer action comes as Washington seeks to ease pressure points in the broader U.S.–China trade relationship. China has recently imposed export curbs on rare earth metals, a key input for global technology manufacturing. In parallel talks, the U.S. has delayed restrictions on technology exports to certain Chinese firms and launched a review that could allow limited shipments of advanced chips, including some from Nvidia, to resume, despite resistance from U.S. lawmakers concerned about national security risks.

The semiconductor sector is also watching a separate and potentially far more sweeping investigation under Section 232, which could eventually lead to tariffs on chips and chip-containing products from multiple countries. For now, U.S. officials have suggested that any such action is unlikely in the near term.

Taken together, the delay underscores a calibrated approach: maintaining leverage over China’s chip sector while prioritising short-term trade stability and supply-chain resilience.

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For U.S. technology equities, the decision to delay China chip tariffs until 2027 removes a near-term policy overhang, particularly for semiconductor names with exposure to complex global supply chains. Shares of Nvidia stand out in this context. While Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips remain tightly restricted, the administration’s willingness to review potential shipments of lower-tier processors to China, alongside the tariff delay, suggests a more pragmatic approach that prioritises trade stability and revenue continuity over immediate escalation.

For Nvidia, China remains a strategically important market even under export controls, and clarity that new tariffs will not land imminently helps reduce uncertainty around demand, inventory planning and pricing. More broadly, the move is supportive for U.S. tech hardware firms and semiconductor suppliers, which have been navigating a patchwork of export controls, tariffs and geopolitical risks. By pushing tariff action into the next administration cycle, Washington effectively lowers the probability of sudden supply-chain disruption or retaliatory measures in the near term.

Equity markets are likely to read the delay as modestly constructive for the sector, particularly for mega-cap technology stocks where earnings visibility and global sales exposure are key valuation drivers. However, the longer-term risk remains intact: tariffs have not been cancelled, and policy uncertainty beyond 2026 will continue to cap valuation multiples for chipmakers with meaningful China exposure.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

WH economic advisor Kevin Hassett Hassett:

• GDP is a great Christmas present for the American people
• Trump trade agenda is working
• AI boom is being seen in the data
• Regardless of job AI is impacting their job.
• Will see employment change back in the 100K -150K range if GDP stays in a 4% range
• Consumer sentiment is uncorrelated with the hard economic data.
• Prices are down and income is up that’s why we have such strong growth numbers.
• People are very optimistic about their income growth.
• The Fed is way behind the curve in lowering rates.
• We have reduced the deficit by 600 billion year-over-year.
• We will be finalizing a housing plan that will be announced sometime in the new year

Hassett is still one of the favorites for the Fed chair position

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.