IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 15 January 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Labor and manufacturing data releases jobless claims at 208K, Empire State at -3.9, and Philly Fed at -10.2 that met or approximated forecasts but underscored manufacturing weakness, eliciting limited immediate market moves, overshadowed by bank earnings misses in sentiment (e.g., JPM shares down 4%), Trump’s policy rhetoric, and steady inflation trends pointing to Fed patience on rates.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Ongoing yen weakness amid Japanese political developments, and broader market reactions to recent U.S. data when markets open on January 15, 2026. With U.S. CPI beating expectations and Trump’s tariff threats on Iran lifting oil prices, commodities remain volatile, while gold hits record highs above $4,580 an ounce due to safe-haven demand from Middle East unrest.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

Empire State Manufacturing Index (1:30 pm GMT)

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The U.S. dollar maintained mild upward momentum with the index near 99.1, bolstered by safe-haven flows, global uncertainties, and awaited U.S. data like jobless claims and PPI that could influence Fed rate outlook; against peers, it held firm versus a recovering euro around 1.1645 and weaker yen at 156, though analysts noted risks of reversal amid Fed leadership speculation and mixed labor signals.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path. Updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

Empire State Manufacturing Index (1:30 pm GMT)

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices reached new record highs around $4,630 per ounce, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, including protests in Iran and the US arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, alongside a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that weakened the US dollar.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar maintained strength around 0.67 against the USD, buoyed by a weakening US Dollar amid escalating political threats to Fed independence under President Trump, though gains were capped by softer Australian consumer confidence, cooling inflation signals, and reduced RBA hike bets following recent CPI data.

​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November 2025 policy meeting, adopting a cautious tone amid a surprise uptick in inflation data for the September quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive pause since the 25 basis point cut in August. The Board attributed some of the inflation rise to temporary factors like higher petrol prices and council rates, but noted signs of more persistent pressures from consumer demand.​
• Policymakers emphasized vigilance on inflation, with trimmed mean inflation expected to remain elevated in the near term before nearing the 2–3% target midpoint by mid-2027. Recent data showed underlying inflation staying above target until at least the second half of 2026, prompting upward revisions to forecasts. Capacity pressures are seen as slightly more pronounced than previously assessed, delaying any easing.
• Headline CPI for the September quarter exceeded expectations, driven partly by temporary items, while underlying measures signal ongoing stickiness. The shift to monthly CPI reporting, with the first full edition in November 2025, will enhance real-time inflation monitoring. Housing and services remain resilient contributors to price pressures.
• Domestic demand shows firmness in services alongside below-trend growth elsewhere, with capacity pressures not expected to ease significantly. The labor market is gradually softening, with unemployment projected to stabilize around 4.4%, though wage growth and productivity dynamics keep unit labor costs a concern. Household spending faces headwinds from high borrowing costs.​
• Global risks include geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility, set against modestly revised-up world growth outlooks. The Board describes its policy as mildly restrictive and data-dependent, balancing inflation control with employment goals. No rate hike was considered despite the inflation surprise.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive to address lingering price stability risks amid household and global vulnerabilities. Communications reaffirm the dual mandate of 2–3% inflation and full employment, with readiness to adjust based on incoming data.​
• Market expectations point to the cash rate holding through early 2026, with a possible modest cut to 3.3% mid-year if inflation eases as forecast. The new monthly CPI data will be key for timely insights.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 2 to 3 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) showed modest gains against the US Dollar, trading around 0.5743-0.5745, up approximately 0.12-0.15% from the prior session, though it remains near multi-week lows amid low expectations for near-term Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hikes.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period, provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen faced renewed selling pressure, with USD/JPY nearing 160 due to Prime Minister Takaichi’s potential snap election plans fueling bets on aggressive fiscal stimulus amid Bank of Japan rate hike uncertainty and Japan-China tensions, prompting official warnings of intervention risks despite a modest intraday rebound from 18-month lows around 159.45.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan will meet on 18–19 December with markets almost fully pricing a 25-basis-point hike, which would raise the short-term policy rate from 0.50% to around 0.75%, as the bank moves further away from its ultra-loose stance while stressing that any tightening will remain gradual and data-dependent.
• The BOJ is expected to continue guiding the uncollateralized overnight call rate in a narrow band around the new policy rate, near 0.75%, while signaling that the pace and timing of any additional hikes will depend on how past increases affect bank lending, corporate financing conditions, and overall economic activity.
• The quarterly path of JGB purchases remains on a pre-announced, gradual taper: outright purchases are being reduced by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, then by roughly ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, with the bank still aiming for JGB purchases to settle near ¥2 trillion in Q1 2027 and retaining flexibility to adjust the pace if market functioning or yield volatility deteriorate.
• Japan’s economy has softened in the near term, with Q3 2025 GDP contracting at an annualized rate of approximately 2.3%, as weaker residential investment and external demand weighed on activity. Meanwhile, business sentiment in manufacturing has recently improved to a roughly four-year high.
• Core consumer inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to around 3.0% year-on-year in October, up from 2.9% in September and remaining above the BOJ’s 2% target, while the “core-core” measure excluding both fresh food and energy rose to about 3.1%, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures.
• In the very near term, some input-cost pressures are easing as earlier import price surges fade, but services inflation linked to labor shortages, along with steady wage gains, continues to support broader price momentum; firms’ and households’ medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored slightly above 2%, keeping short-term inflation risks tilted to the upside.
• For the coming quarters, the BOJ assesses that real growth will likely run below potential as the economy digests tighter financial conditions and past yen depreciation. However, accommodative real rates, positive real wage growth, and improving corporate sentiment are expected to help sustain a modest recovery in private consumption and business investment.
• Over the medium term, as overseas demand stabilizes and domestic labor markets remain tight, the BOJ expects wage settlements and inflation expectations to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory around or slightly above 2%, providing room for further cautious rate normalization as long as financial conditions remain supportive and the recovery is not derailed.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 22 to 23 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices surged, driven by geopolitical tensions involving Iran and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI crude rising 1.21% to $61.89 per barrel and Brent gaining 1.34% to $66.35 per barrel. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.39 million barrels, far above the anticipated draw, along with a significant gasoline stock build, yet prices held firm amid these supply concerns.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 15 January 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.96%, Shanghai Composite down 0.60%, Hang Seng down 0.53% ASX up 0.28%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,595.05 (-0.92%), Silver at $87.542 (-4.50%), Brent Oil at $64.21 (-3.32%), WTI Oil at $60.07 (-3.36%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.138, UK 10-year yield at 4.3430, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7816

News & Data:

• (USD) Core PPI m/m 0.0% to 0.2% expected
• (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% to 0.4% expected

Markets Update:

Asian markets are trading mostly lower on Thursday, tracking broadly negative cues from Wall Street overnight amid rising global geopolitical concerns. Investor sentiment has been weighed by escalating tensions, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks on Greenland, political unrest in Iran, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Some profit-taking has also emerged after the recent record rally in global equities, even as Asian markets closed mostly higher on Wednesday.

Australia is an exception, with shares trading modestly higher for a fourth session. The S&P/ASX 200 is hovering near the 8,850 level, supported by gains in mining stocks amid firmer gold and iron ore prices, while other sectors show mixed performance. Major miners are advancing, although oil stocks remain under pressure. The banking sector is mixed, and technology shares are uneven.

Japanese markets are significantly lower, snapping a three-session winning streak. The Nikkei 225 slipped below 53,850, dragged down by index heavyweights and technology stocks. Losses in SoftBank, semiconductor-related stocks, and select exporters outweighed gains in automakers and banks. Economic data showed Japan’s producer prices rose modestly in December, in line with expectations.

Elsewhere in Asia, markets such as New Zealand, China, Singapore, Malaysia, and Taiwan are lower, while Hong Kong, South Korea, and Indonesia are edging higher.

On Wall Street, stocks ended lower on Wednesday, led by a sharp decline in the Nasdaq. European markets were mixed, while crude oil prices jumped on supply concerns linked to potential U.S. intervention in Iran.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Thursday 15th January 2026 : Asian Markets Slip Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Australia Defies Weak Global Cues first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 15 January 2026

What happened in the Asia session?
During the Asia session, markets digested Japan’s steady wholesale inflation data (CGPI ~2.4-3.8% YoY), official yen intervention threats driving USDJPY lower to 158.59, and China chip curbs pressuring tech stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom, while oil dropped on de-escalated Iran risks and gold hit records amid haven flows—impacting yen pairs, U.S. chip ADRs, and commodities most sharply amid mixed Hang Seng gains on China trade strength.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Initial jobless claims and potential PPI updates, alongside European factory orders and ECB consumer surveys, as markets open amid recent Wall Street declines led by tech and banks. Gold and silver hit record highs before profit-taking pressured prices, while oil snapped a rally; watch yen strength on Japanese intervention warnings and Treasury gains from haven flows.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

Empire State Manufacturing Index (1:30 pm GMT)

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar exhibited mild gains with the DXY at 99.1177, buoyed by steady inflation data and labour market anticipation, though forecasts point to USD/CHF declines post-correction and broader caution lingers over Fed independence amid political pressures; Asian demand highlights persistent safe-haven appeal despite 2025’s sharp losses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labour market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualised pace in Q2 2025, according to revised estimates. However, Q3 and Q4 are expected to face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions, such as the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signalling a gradual disinflation path. Updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labour market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for  27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

Empire State Manufacturing Index (1:30 pm GMT)

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices dipped modestly to around $4,615 per ounce in early trading, paring gains from a record $4,641 hit on January 14 amid escalating US-Iran tensions and safe-haven buying, though technical indicators signal a corrective pullback to rebuild bullish momentum toward potential new highs above $4,765 if support at $4,580 holds.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro faces downward pressure today amid a strengthening US dollar, driven by delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing tensions between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell. Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook, forecasting EUR/USD to reach 1.22 by year-end due to factors like lower US rates and eurozone resilience.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 4–5 January 2026 meeting, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40% and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision aligns with the assessment that the current stance supports medium-term price stability, as inflation edges below the 2% target while growth shows resilience amid balanced risks. Markets and commentary indicate value in holding steady, with no fixed path ahead given uncertainties in data.
• Price dynamics remain stable near target levels. Headline HICP inflation stood at 2.1% in November 2025, with projections for 1.9% in 2026 driven by base effects from energy and easing non-energy components. Services inflation persists somewhat elevated but trends toward moderation, alongside contained food pressures.
• December 2025 Eurosystem staff projections confirm headline inflation at 2.1% for 2025, declining to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 before nearing 2% in 2028. Downside risks from soft producer prices and anchored expectations offset potential upsides from geopolitics or fiscal measures.
• Euro area GDP growth remains resilient at subdued levels, with Q3 2025 at 0.3% qoq and forecasts around 1.2-1.4% for 2025-2027. Surveys signal stabilization, bolstered by public investment and external demand against softer private spending.
• The labour market stays tight overall, with unemployment steady at 6.4% through October 2025, near historic lows and solid participation. Real incomes support consumption as inflation eases, with credit conditions aiding gradual household and firm expansion.
• Business sentiment reflects caution over US policy, trade tensions, and tariffs, tempered by easing supply chains and a competitive euro. Export sectors gain a modest lift, while domestic drivers like investment build momentum.
• The Governing Council will continue to make data-dependent decisions meeting by meeting, assessing inflation outlook, underlying trends, and transmission. Both hikes and cuts remain possible based on data, avoiding preset paths amid uncertainties.
• Balance sheet normalisation proceeds steadily, with APP and PEPP portfolios shrinking post-reinvestment halts, at a pace deemed suitable without market strain.

​The next meeting is on 4 to 5 February 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc maintains firmness around USD/CHF 0.7997, driven by safe-haven flows amid global uncertainties and steady SNB policy outlook after mild inflation gains, with technicals pointing to a corrective bounce near 0.8015 before potential declines below 0.7885; broader franc strength persists against a backdrop of subdued Swiss economic data like contracting manufacturing PMI.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its 11 December 2025 monetary policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, extending the pause that began in September as the Governing Board judges that current settings are sufficient to keep inflation near, but still below, its target while avoiding an unnecessary move into negative rates.
• Recent data show that the tentative rebound in Swiss inflation has stalled, with headline CPI easing from 0.1% year‑on‑year in October to 0.0% in November and core inflation slipping to about 0.4%, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain very weak and that deflation risks, while contained, have not fully disappeared.
• The SNB’s conditional inflation forecast is likely to remain close to the September projections, with inflation still seen averaging roughly 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027 under an unchanged policy rate path, though the latest CPI prints argue for a slightly lower near‑term profile and keep open the option of renewed easing if activity or prices weaken further.
• The global backdrop has deteriorated further, as continuing U.S. tariff actions and softer external demand weigh on world trade, while uncertainty in key European and U.S. markets for Swiss exports persists, leaving the SNB cautious about the growth outlook despite Switzerland’s relatively resilient domestic demand.
• Business and labour-market sentiment in export‑oriented manufacturing remains subdued, with firms reporting pressure on margins from the still‑strong franc and softer foreign orders, although the broader economy is still expected to grow at around 1–1.5% in 2025 and unemployment only drifting up gradually from low levels.
• The SNB continues to stress its willingness to act if deflation risks re‑emerge, reiterating that it can ease policy through renewed rate cuts or targeted foreign‑exchange intervention if necessary, while also highlighting its commitment to transparent communication, including the publication of detailed minutes from recent assessments and ongoing dialogue with international partners on FX policy

The next meeting is on 19 March 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

GDP m/m (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Pound remains range-bound around 1.3430-1.3470 against the USD, pressured by bearish technical patterns like a “Wedge” reversal and trading below key EMAs, yet supported by USD softness from softer US CPI data (2.7% core YoY) and Fed policy uncertainties, including charges against Jerome Powell.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on 18 December 2025, with the current Bank Rate standing at 4.00 per cent after being held in a close 5–4 vote at the 5 November meeting. Market pricing and analyst commentary point to a high risk of a 25‑basis‑point cut to 3.75 per cent, but this remains conditional on incoming inflation and labour‑market data, so the December note should be treated as pre‑decision guidance rather than an ex‑post summary.
• The BoE is expected to leave its quantitative tightening (QT) framework broadly unchanged through year‑end, maintaining the lower reduction pace in gilt holdings that was set earlier in 2025. Official communications still characterise the existing QT path as consistent with a restrictive stance, with policymakers stressing that balance‑sheet reduction will remain gradual and sensitive to market‑liquidity conditions.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 3.6 per cent year‑on‑year in October 2025, down from 3.8 per cent in September, helped by softer energy and goods prices, though it remains almost twice the 2 per cent target. Underlying inflation pressures, particularly in services, have continued to moderate only slowly, so the MPC’s central projection still envisages inflation moving closer to, but not yet reaching, 3 per cent over the course of 2026, contingent on further normalisation in energy and wage dynamics.
• UK economic activity remains weak heading into the December meeting, with the labour market showing further signs of slackening. The unemployment rate has risen toward just above 5 per cent on the latest three‑month figures to October, while overall regular pay growth has slowed to around the mid‑4 per cent range, reinforcing the view that domestic cost pressures are gradually easing.
• External conditions continue to cloud the outlook, with fragile global growth and fluctuating commodity prices contributing to bouts of financial‑market volatility. The MPC has highlighted that renewed global energy or food price shocks could temporarily slow the pace of disinflation, but such risks are currently judged unlikely to derail the medium‑term downward trajectory for inflation if domestic demand stays subdued.
• The balance of risks around the inflation outlook remains finely poised. Downside risks are linked to persistently weak domestic demand and rising unemployment, while upside risks come from still‑elevated inflation expectations, sticky services inflation, and the possibility that structural changes in the labour market leave less slack than conventional indicators suggest.
• Overall, the MPC’s stance going into December is restrictive but increasingly open to a gradual easing cycle, with any rate cuts expected to be measured and data‑dependent. Policymakers have reiterated that the Bank Rate will need to stay in restrictive territory until they are confident inflation is on a sustainable path back to the 2 per cent target, and they have signalled that the profile of cuts, once started, is likely to be shallow rather than rapid.
• The next meeting is on 5 February 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) shows mixed signals today, trading around the USD/CAD pair at approximately 1.3877-1.3900 amid short-term bearish trends influenced by technical corrections and global risk factors. Recent reports indicate a slight weakening earlier in the week due to Iran-related uncertainty clipping risk appetite, though it edged higher yesterday on rising oil prices for a fifth straight day, supporting the commodity-linked loonie.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council left the target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at its 10 December 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations and signalling that the earlier easing cycle has likely concluded. The Bank noted that while global tariff tensions and trade uncertainty persist, the external backdrop has stabilised somewhat, reducing the need for additional insurance cuts even as world trade remains fragile.
• The Council acknowledged that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and tariffs continues to weigh on business sentiment, but recent data show Canadian manufacturing and goods exports holding up better than anticipated. Surveys cited by the Bank suggest export order books have stopped deteriorating, with firms reporting some rebuilding of backlogs despite still‑cautious capital spending plans.
• Canada’s economy rebounded more strongly than expected in the third quarter, with real GDP expanding at an annualised pace of about 2.6% after a 1.8% contraction in Q2, largely on the back of higher crude exports and government spending. Monthly data show output rising 0.2% in September, though flash estimates point to a softer start to Q4 as some sectors give back earlier gains.
• Service sector activity has firmed, with indicators showing the services PMI back above the 50 threshold and broadening gains in business and professional services. However, consumer-facing categories remain mixed, as still‑elevated price levels and only modest real income growth keep a lid on discretionary spending even as tourism and technology‑related services expand.
• Housing markets have continued to stabilise, with national resale activity and prices edging higher through the autumn alongside the earlier decline in borrowing costs. The Bank noted that while some major urban centres are seeing renewed price pressures, tighter underwriting standards and still‑high affordability constraints are expected to cap the pace of any rebound.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 2.2% year over year in October and is estimated to have remained near that rate in November, keeping it slightly above the 2% target but comfortably within the 1%–3% control range. Core measures have drifted lower, with CPI‑median and CPI‑trim around 3% or below, reinforcing the assessment that underlying price pressures are gradually moderating even as gasoline and some shelter components remain volatile.
• The Governing Council reiterated that the current policy rate is “about the right level” to keep inflation close to target while supporting the economy through a period of structural adjustment, and it signalled a shift away from near‑term easing expectations. While the Bank did not rule out future adjustments, officials stressed that, barring a material downside surprise to growth or inflation, further rate cuts are unlikely before 2026. Attention is now focused on the durability of the recovery and the evolution of core inflation.
• The next meeting is on 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices declined sharply, reversing a prior six-day rally driven by Iran tensions, primarily due to US President Donald Trump’s comments signaling no immediate military response against Iran after assurances that violence against protesters was subsiding. Brent crude fell around 2.4-2.7% to approximately $64.50-$65 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped below $61, with intraday lows near $60.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 15 January 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Initial Jobless Claims

• Initial claims: 198,000, ↓ 9,000 from the prior week (revised to 207,000)

• Prior week revision: ↓ 1,000 (from 208,000 to 207,000)

• 4-week moving average: 205,000, ↓ 6,500 on the week

• Trend signal: Lowest 4-week average since January 20, 2024, highlighting continued labor-market resilience

Continuing Claims

• Insured unemployment rate: 1.2%, unchanged

• Continuing claims: 1.884 million, ↓ 19,000 from the prior week (revised to 1.903 million)

• Prior week revision: ↓ 11,000 (from 1.914 million to 1.903 million)

• 4-week moving average: 1.889 million, ↓ 250 on the week

• Trend signal: Stability with mild improvement, no sign of sustained labor-market deterioration

Market takeaway: Jobless claims remain low and trending lower, reinforcing the view of a resilient U.S. labor market, which limits the urgency for aggressive Fed easing and keeps the USD supported on dips.

There is some chatter that the claims may be impacted by seasonally adjustments.

Looking at the markets, the broader S&P and Nasdaq are higher with the S&P up about 36 points and the Nasdaq up 254 points.

In the US debt market, yields are higher and trading near the high:

• 2 year yield 3.558%, +4.2 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.755%, +4.0 basis points.
• 10 year yield 4.161%, +2.2 basis points.
• 30 year yield 4.766%, +1.0 basis points

Fed’s Goolsbee is talking on CNBC and says that we need to get inflation down to 2%. He says there are some things in the recent CPI and PPI data that there are some things are encouraging, but some things that are still disturbing.

Initial jobless claims track the weekly number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time and are one of the most timely indicators of U.S. labor-market health and overall economic momentum. Rising claims can signal increasing job losses and a slowing economy, while declining claims suggest that hiring is outpacing layoffs, pointing to underlying economic strength. Released every Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor, the report is closely watched by economists and markets alike, with particular emphasis on the four-week moving average, which helps smooth out weekly volatility and provides a clearer view of underlying labor-market trends.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -3.90

Details:

• New orders 6.6 vs 0.0 prior
• Shipments 16.3 vs -5.7 prior
• Employment -9.0 vs 7.3 prior
• Average employee workweek -5.4 versus 3.5 prior
• Prices paid 42.8 vs 37.6 prior
• Prices received 14.4 vs 19.8 prior
• Unfilled orders -8.2 vs -14.9 prior
• Delivery times 0.0 vs -5.9 prior
• Inventories -2.1 vs 4.0 prior
• Supply availability -4.1 vs -6.9 prior

Manufacturing activity increased in New York State, according to the January survey. The general business conditions index rose eleven points to 7.7, returning to positive territory after a small dip below zero in December. New orders and shipments increased, with the new orders index rising eight points to 6.6 and the shipments index climbing twenty-one points to 16.3, its highest level in over a year. Unfilled orders decreased. Inventories edged down and delivery times were unchanged. The supply availability index came in at -4.1, suggesting supply availability was slightly worse than last month.

Six-month outlook:

• General business conditions 30.3 vs 35.7 prior
• New orders 33.3 vs 38.0 prior
• Shipments 34.9 vs 33.3 prior
• Number of employees 14.9 vs 8.8 prior
• Average employee workweek 17.5 vs 12.9 prior
• Prices paid 52.6 vs 55.4 prior
• Prices received 36.5 vs 46.5 prior
• Capital expenditures 10.3 vs 6.9 prior
• Unfilled orders 10.3 vs 12.9 prior

Firms remained fairly optimistic about the outlook. The index for future business conditions came in at 30.3, with about half of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. New orders and shipments are expected to increase. Supply availability is expected to be unchanged. Firms continue to anticipate significant price increases, though somewhat less so than in recent months. The capital expenditures index rose three points to 10.3, pointing to ongoing modest capital spending plans.

WHAT IS THE NY FED MANUFACTURING INDEX?

The New York Fed Manufacturing Index (officially known as the Empire State Manufacturing Survey) is a monthly economic indicator that gauges the health of the manufacturing sector in New York State.

Because it is released very early in the monnth, usually around the 15th, it is considered a “bellwether” or leading indicator for the broader U.S. manufacturing industry and the overall economy. It’s a low-tier indicator though, meaning it’s not as market-moving as the ISM Manufacturing index.

It’s a diffusion index, meaning it represents the difference between the percentage of companies reporting an increase in activity and those reporting a decrease:

• Above 0.0: Indicates that manufacturing activity is expanding.

• Below 0.0: Indicates that manufacturing activity is contracting.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -8.8

Details:

• Employment: +9.7 vs +12.9 last month

• Prices paid: +46.9 vs +43.6 last month

• New orders: +14.4 vs +5.0 last month

• Shipments: vs +3.2 last month

• Unfilled orders: vs -6.2 last month

• Inventories: vs +6.5 last month

• Average workweek: vs +14.7 last month

Six-months from now indicators:

• 6 month index: vs +41.6 last month

• Capex index 6-month forward: vs +30.3 last month

The Philly Fed is a solid look at manufacturing in the region but the entire US manufacturing sector is increasingly irrelevant in terms of national employment, GDP and markets. It represents something of a broader look at overall economic sentiment, so it still has some value but it’s rarely an FX market mover or anything else.

Separately, the import/export price indexes were released for November:

• Import prices +0.4% vs -0.1% expected (prior 0.0%)
• Import prices y/y vs +0.3% prior
• Export prices +0.5% vs +0.2% expected (prior was 0.0%)

There is some inflation hidden in these numbers and all of this is coming with oil prices at very low levels.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 16/01/2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 98.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.53
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support. 

Pivot: 1.1673

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1611

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1704

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 183.55

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 182.54
Supporting reasons: Identified as swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 185.53
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP: 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8707

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8642
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8746
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support. 

Pivot: 1.3489

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3392
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3549
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 211.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 210.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 214.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.7966

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7907
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8035
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 157.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 155.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 160.09

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                      

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3800

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3713

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3916

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6722

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.6661

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6766

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5770

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5690

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5820

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 48,844.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 48,371.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 49,541.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 24,687.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 24,203.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,501.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 6,892.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,823.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,997.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 93,926.97

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 90,489.68

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 98,880.63

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,160.08

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 3,051.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,403.56
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 60.26

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 56.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 62.16
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,549.86

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,500.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,641.78
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 15th January 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Japan MOF faces a tall order in getting any yen intervention to stick – MUF

• US-Iran tensions have been capping US stocks all along: Trump’s comment triggered a rally
• Precious metals regain some poise after sharp drop earlier in the day
• BoJ rate hike odds rise as the central bank is said to focus more on the weakening yen
• Trump’s comments lead to sharp drop in oil prices: what’s next for crude oil?
• German gross domestic product was 0.2% higher in 2025
• NASDAQ Technical Analysis (did you exit your short)?
• USDJPY falls back below the 2025 high following intense verbal intervention. What’s next?
• Spain December final CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelim
• France December final CPI +0.8% vs +0.8% y/y prelim
• PBOC to cut rates on various structural policy tools by 25 bps
• What are the main events for today?
• China new bank lending stumbles once again in 2025
• UK November monthly GDP +0.3% vs +0.1% m/m expected
• FX option expiries for 15 January 10am New York cut
• ECB policymaker Kazaks says attack on Fed raises new risks to economic outlook
• Silver pulls back from the highs, major currencies steady ahead of European trading

The main highlights of the European session on the news front were the monthly UK GDP data and a Bloomberg report raising the possibility of an earlier than expected BoJ rate hike.

The UK data beat expectations across the board but the market reaction was muted. The main reason is the fact that the BoE is mostly focused on inflation for the next rate cut decisions.

We then got a Bloomberg report saying that the BoJ officials were paying more attention than before on the weakening yen and its potential impact on inflation. According to people familiar with the matter, this could have implication for future rate hikes even though the central bank is likely to hold rates steady next week.

The Japanese Yen strengthened on the headlines as the odds of a rate hike in March jumped to 22%. This would be much sooner than expected and could keep the JPY supported in the short-term if speculations of an earlier hike keep increasing.

In the markets, US stocks have been the most notable movers. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures have been rallying strongly since Trump’s comment yesterday where he said that the killing in Iran was stopping and there were no plans for executions.

It certainly looks like the upside was capped by US-Iran tensions all long. In fact, a war with Iran would trigger a massive rally in oil prices which would eventually weigh on economic activity and inflation. Without the risk of a military action in Iran, we should see new all-time highs soon.

In other markets, FX has been kinda boring with most major pairs seeing slight changes on the day. US Treasury yields continue to bounce around in a range given the limited changes in interest rate expectations. Gold and silver recouped some of the losses triggered by easing US-Iran tensions although they remain negative on the day. Lastly, oil is consolidating near yesterday’s lows when Trump’s comment caused a massive and quick dip.

In the American session, the main highlight is going to be the US Jobless Claims data. Initial Claims are expected at 215K vs 208K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1893K vs 1914K prior. Jobless Claims continue to point to a “low firing, low hiring” labour market with some minor improvement.

The data is unlikely to change much in terms of expectations unless we get big deviations from the estimates. We have also the Philly Fed index and the November import/export prices on the agenda but those aren’t market moving releases.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

That’s at least some positive news that will shelve stagflation fears for a while. But as price pressures continue to be an issue as we get into the new year, the risks will still remain as economic conditions remain more tepid.

For some context, the German economy contracted in 2023 and 2024 by 0.9% and 0.5% respectively. So, this is the first positive momentum shift since 2022.

Looking at the details, the growth picture is primarily attributable to increased consumer spending by private households and the government. Meanwhile, exports declined yet again as US tariffs weighed on the sector alongside other factors such as the appreciation in the euro currency and increased competition from China.

Besides that, overall investment remains weak with the numbers here being softer in both equipment and construction than in the previous year.

The manufacturing sector also failed to get out of its rut, facing a third straight year of decline in output. That being said, at least the decline was less pronounced than in the two preceding years. The sub-sectors that suffered the most were the automotive and mechanical engineering industries. No surprises there as US tariffs were the main issue of course.

As for the construction sector, it was a tough year in general as well. Persistently high construction prices significantly hampered building construction and finishing trades in particular. Meanwhile, the services sector had a bit more of a mixed showing.

The saving grace for Germany this time was consumer spending, with both private and government consumption expenditure rising significantly last year. Households mostly spent on healthcare and mobility while spending in food and accommodation showed some declines.

The contrast says a lot about the growth balance since Germany is supposed to be the industrial backbone of Europe. So, just be wary of that.

As for the deficit ratio, Germany clocked in a 2.4% reading in 2025. So, that at least keeps below the European Stability and Growth Pact reference value of 3% – for now.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior +3.0%
• HICP +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y prelim
• Prior +3.2%

There are no changes to the preliminary estimates for Spain’s headline inflation numbers in December. It reaffirms that price pressures rebounded back during the latter half of the year, with core prices also holding above the 2% threshold. Of note, core annual inflation was 2.6% in December and that is unchanged from the November reading.

It keeps above the 2% line that the ECB hopes for inflation to fall back towards and Spain will join Germany in that regard in terms of creating some headache for policymakers in tying things together with the rest of the region. As such, the ECB will have to keep on the sidelines for now as stagflation risks are also a consideration when weighing the economic outlook for this year.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior +0.9%
• HICP +0.7% vs +0.7% y/y prelim
• Prior +0.8%

There are no changes to the initial estimates but while headline annual inflation showed a decline, core annual inflation actually reflected a marginal increase in December. The latter was seen at 1.1% in the final month of 2025, up from 1.0% in November the month before.

At the very least though, services inflation eased a little to 2.1% in ending the year. And that is down from 2.2% in November. However, food price inflation picked up in a rise to 1.7% in December – up from 1.4% previously.

The readings here aren’t anything too concerning for the ECB as they are keeping well below the 2% mark, especially on core prices. So, France is one spot that policymakers can turn their attention away from – at least in terms of economic data. But as we know, France’s political climate offers up another set of risks for the central bank but we’ll not dive into that discourse here.

On the inflation front, the main worries right now are Germany and Spain. In particular, the former is the major concern as stagflation risks will come into the picture as we look to the year ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.