Trump news today:

• Administration sanctions Maduro’s nephews and 6 ships carrying Venezuelan oil
• Bessent commented that Maduro group in criminal associations are flooding the US with drugs that is poisoning the American people
• Maduro and cronies have a choice: stop the drug trafficking stop the corruption, stop the dictatorship and leave the country.

ON Ukraine:

• The administration continues to talk with both sides.
• If there is a real chance to a peace agreement, the US will send representatives for talks, meetings would need to be productive.

On the Fed:

• Trump thinks the Fed should do more.

On Nvidia H200 chips:

• Chips will be shipped to approved customers in China. (Nvidia shares are down at $-3.80 or more is 2.06% at $179.99)

Trump on TruthSocial said: prices are coming down fast, energy, oil, and gasoline marketing 5 year lows, and the stock market today just it and all-time high. Tariffs are bringing in hundreds of billions of dollars.

On China and Japan :

• Trump has a good relationship with leaders of China and Japan

Trump is fighting declining approval ratings although they may be coming after after the dip due to the shutdown. Nevertheless, Trump’s approval rating varies by pollster, generally ranging between 36% and 45% as of mid-December 2025.

Most major polling averages show his approval rating in the low-to-mid 40s, while disapproval ratings are consistently above 50%.

Here is a breakdown of the most recent data from reputable sources:

Polling Averages (Aggregated Data)

These sources combine multiple polls to smooth out outliers and provide a broader picture of public sentiment.

• RealClearPolitics (RCP) Average:

  • Approval: 43.9%

  • Disapproval: 52.9%

  • As of December 11, 2025

• FiveThirtyEight (Silver Bulletin):

  • Approval: 42.4%

  • Disapproval: 54.2%

  • As of December 11, 2025

• Decision Desk HQ:

  • Approval: 43.1%

  • Disapproval: 52.8%

  • As of December 11, 2025

Individual Major Polls

Individual polls can show more variance depending on their methodology (e.g., registered voters vs. all adults).

• Gallup:

  • Approval: 36%

  • Disapproval: 60%

  • Polling dates: Nov 3–25, 2025

  • Note: Gallup highlighted this as a “new second-term low” for President Trump.

• Reuters / Ipsos:

  • Approval: 41%

  • Disapproval: 58%

  • Released: Dec 9, 2025

  • Note: This marked a slight increase from a previous low of 38%.

• Rasmussen Reports:

  • Approval: 45%

  • Disapproval: 52%

  • Released: Dec 10, 2025

• AP / NORC:

  • Approval: 36%

  • Disapproval: 62%

  • Polling dates: Nov 6–10, 2025

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The US treasury has auctioned off $22Bof 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.773%

The WI (when-issued) level at the time of the auction was 4.774%

The results of a US Treasury auction act as a real-time “report card” on the market’s appetite for US government debt. Because US Treasuries are the risk-free benchmark for the entire global financial system, the results ripple across all asset classes—stocks, currencies, and commodities.

Given the auction result, my AUCTION GRADE: B

Reasons for the B grade.

• The tails was -0.1 basis points lower than the WI level. Positive.
• The Bid to cover was on the screws vs the 6 month average. Average.
• Indrect bidders were higher than the 6 month average. Slight positive for international buyers
• DIrect bidders were near the 6 month average. Average
• Dealers were saddled with slightly less than average. Slight positive.

Yields are little changed after the completion of the coupon auctions.

US Treasury Auction Process: Key Components

The US Treasury auction process determines the yield (interest rate) the government pays on its debt. The market effectively “votes” on the price of US debt through this mechanism.

1. The “WI” Level (When-Issued) was 4.774%

• Definition: “When-Issued” refers to trading that occurs in the time between the announcement of an auction and the actual auction itself.

• Significance: It serves as the market’s “price consensus” or expected yield leading up to the deadline. It anchors the market’s expectations.

2. The Tail -0.1 basis point vs the 6 month average of 0.3 basis points

• Definition: The Tail is the difference between the High Yield (the actual yield determined at the auction) and the WI Yield (the expected yield right before the auction closes).

  • Tail = High Yield – WI Yield

• Interpretation:

  • Positive Tail (Weak Demand): If the auction yields higher than the WI level (e.g., WI was 4.00% but the auction stopped at 4.02%), it indicates that demand was softer than expected. Dealers had to lower prices (raise yields) to sell the entire issue.

  • Stopping Through (Strong Demand): If the auction yields lower than the WI level (e.g., 3.98% vs. 4.00%), it indicates aggressive buying.

3. Bid-to-Cover Ratio 2.36X vs the 6 month average of 2.36X

• Definition: The total dollar amount of bids received divided by the amount of debt being sold.

• Significance: This is the primary metric for demand.

  • Higher is better: A ratio of 2.5x means for every $1 of debt offered, $2.50 was bid. Ratios below average suggest weak demand and can spook markets.

4. The Bidders

The Treasury breaks down buyers into three categories to show who is buying the debt:

• Indirect Bidders 65.4% vs the 6 month average of 63.7%

  • Who they are: Foreign central banks, international investors, and some domestic investment managers placing bids through a primary dealer.

  • Significance: Often viewed as a proxy for foreign demand. High indirect participation is generally seen as bullish (strong global confidence in US debt).

• Direct Bidders 23.5% vs the 6 month average of 23.9%:

  • Who they are: Domestic money managers, insurance companies, hedge funds, and individuals placing bids directly with the Treasury (bypassing dealers).

  • Significance: Represents “real money” domestic demand.

• Primary Dealers 11.2% vs the 6-month average of 12.5%

  • Who they are: Large banks (e.g., Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan) designated by the NY Fed. They are required to bid in every auction.

  • Significance: They act as the “backstop.” They buy whatever supply the Directs and Indirects don’t take. A high Dealer award is generally bearish (bad), as it means the banks are stuck holding excess inventory they must now try to sell into the secondary market.

Debt Statistics & This Week’s Auction Data

Total US Public Debt Outstanding:

As of early December 2025, the total public debt outstanding is approximately $38.4 trillion.

Treasury Auctions for the Week of December 8, 2025:

The Treasury issued the following amounts in the 3, 10, and 30-year maturities this week:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Freddie Mac is reporting that the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage average rate rose to 6.22% from 6.19% in the prior week. The recent cycle lows going back to October 2022 is at 6.09%.

Current Market Snapshot

The housing market continues to navigate a complex environment of fluctuating rates and sticky prices. While the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday, mortgage rates have moved in the opposite direction this week, highlighting the disconnect that often exists between Fed policy and long-term bond yields.

• Mortgage Rates: According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.22% this week, up from 6.19% the previous week.

• Inventory Levels: Housing supply is slowly recovering but remains approximately 13% below pre-pandemic levels. We are seeing regional disparities, with inventory surging in the South and West (rising above pre-pandemic norms in cities like Denver and Austin) while remaining tight in the Northeast.

• Price Trends: National median list prices are largely flat year-over-year at approximately $424,000. However, about 20% of listings are seeing price cuts, suggesting sellers are having to adjust expectations to meet stretched buyers.

The Affordability Crunch

Affordability remains the primary headwind for prospective buyers. Despite the Fed’s easing cycle, the combination of home prices near record highs and mortgage rates above 6% keeps monthly payments elevated.

• Delinquencies Outlook: Recent credit reports suggest a modest rise in mortgage delinquencies heading into 2026 as the “affordability squeeze” tests borrower resilience.

• Buyer Behavior: A new report from Zillow indicates that many buyers are skipping the “rate shopping” phase in a rush to secure homes, potentially costing them significant savings in a volatile rate environment.

Chair Powell on Housing: The “Lock-In” Effect and Supply

During yesterday’s post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed the housing market directly, offering a sobering view on why lower Fed rates haven’t immediately fixed the sector’s issues.

1. The “Lock-In” Effect is Stifling Supply
Powell emphasized that the housing market is effectively “frozen” because millions of Americans are holding onto mortgages with rates between 2% and 3%. Even as the Fed cuts rates, current market rates (near 6%) are too high to entice these owners to sell and move, keeping resale inventory artificially low.

2. Inflation & Housing Services
Powell noted that while the Fed has made progress on inflation, housing services inflation remains sticky. He described the current policy stance as “modestly restrictive,” which is helping to cool the economy, but he acknowledged that monetary policy alone cannot fix structural housing supply deficits.

3. The Tariff Impact
When addressing recent inflation data, Powell attributed much of the current “heat” to tariffs, describing them as a “one-time price increase.” However, he warned that if these policy shifts lead to higher costs for construction materials or labor shortages (via immigration changes), it could exacerbate the housing supply shortage further.

Realtor.com 2026 Forecast: A Steady Shift Toward Balance

Overview: “Low Gear” Recovery

Realtor.com recently outlined their projections for US housing in 2026.

They forecast that the US housing market is expected to shift into a steadier, more balanced state in 2026. While not a boom year, conditions will improve modestly for buyers as affordability pressures ease slightly. The market will remain in “low gear,” with sales rising slowly from historical lows but still constrained by high prices and rates.

Key Data Projections (2026 vs. 2025)

• Mortgage Rates: Expected to average 6.3% for the year (down from an average of 6.6% in 2025). This stability helps buyers budget but keeps the “lock-in” effect in play for existing owners.

• Home Prices: Forecast to rise by a modest 2.2% year-over-year. Crucially, inflation is expected to outpace this growth (~3%), meaning real home prices (inflation-adjusted) will actually decline slightly, slowly improving affordability.

• Existing-Home Sales: Projected to rise 1.7% to 4.13 million units. This is a small rebound from the 29-year lows seen in 2024-2025.

• Inventory: For-sale inventory will grow by 8.9%, marking the third straight year of gains, though levels will still remain ~12% below pre-pandemic norms.

• Rents: Rents are forecast to decline by 1.0% nationally as a robust supply of new multi-family units hits the market.

Market Dynamics by Group

• For Buyers: “Negotiating power tilts subtly toward buyers.” Affordability will improve as incomes grow faster than home prices, pushing the typical mortgage payment share of income below 30% for the first time since 2022.

• For Sellers: The market is moving further into “balanced territory.” Sellers will face more competition and may need to be flexible on price. Delistings (sellers walking away rather than cutting prices) may continue.

• For Renters: A “renter’s market” is emerging, particularly in the South and West (e.g., Austin, Las Vegas, Atlanta) where supply is surging.

Economic Backdrop

• Inflation & Wages: Inflation is expected to hover around 3%, but wage growth (3.6%) will outpace it, restoring some consumer purchasing power.

• Risks: The forecast highlights significant risks, including trade policy/tariffs impacting construction costs and the uncertainty of a Federal Reserve leadership transition when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026.

Conclusion

2026 is framed as a year of “slow normalization.” It won’t be a dramatic return to the frenzied activity of 2020-2021, nor a crash. Instead, it offers a window of stability where inventory creeps up, rates flatten out, and buyers gradually regain some leverage.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

U.S. Jobless Claims Rebound, but Holiday Distortions Cloud the Picture

U.S. initial jobless claims rebounded to 236K, slightly above the 220K expected by economists. The prior week was also revised higher to 192K from 191K, though that earlier reading remains unusually low. It’s important to recall that last week’s sharp drop to 191K was widely viewed as an outlier, heavily influenced by the Thanksgiving holiday, which often disrupts seasonal adjustments and temporarily suppresses claims activity.

Continuing claims provide additional context. Last week’s total was 1.939 million, but the latest report — which also covers the Thanksgiving period — fell to 1.838 million versus 1.947 million expected. On the surface, this would normally signal a stronger labor market, as fewer individuals are remaining on unemployment benefits. However, just like the initial claims figures, these numbers are distorted by holiday effects, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions about the underlying trend.

Taken together, today’s data suggest some rebound from last week’s artificially low readings, but traders and policymakers will need to wait for post-holiday, normalized data to get a clearer picture of true labor-market momentum.

US trade deficit for September -52.8 billion versus -63.3 billion estimate

U.S. trade data for September showed a notable improvement, with the overall trade deficit narrowing to –$52.8 billion, a sharp reduction from –$63.3 billion in August. The goods deficit also tightened meaningfully, coming in at –$77.69 billion compared with –$84.34 billion the prior month. The smaller gap reflects stronger export activity and a pullback in imports, signaling a firmer trade contribution to GDP heading into the fourth quarter.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• SNB Chairman Schlegel: SNB policy to stoke inflation slowly in the next quarters
• SNB leaves interest rates unchanged at 0.00% as expected in December
• FX option expiries for 11 December 10am New York cut
• What are the main events for today?

It’s been an empty session in terms of data releases and notable newsflow. The only highlight was the SNB monetary policy decision. The central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 0.00% as expected and slightly downgraded inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027.

The economic outlook was upgraded due to the recent decrease of US tariffs on Swiss goods to 15%. Chairman Schlegel downplayed the disappointing inflation readings in the recent months and reiterated that the Bank expects inflation to pick up slowly in the next months due to expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.

The Swiss Franc was mostly unchanged after the decision and the press conference, but started to pick up steam on a broad USD weakness that eventually led to a break below the key support around the 0.7980 level on USDCHF.

In the markets, the US dollar remains on the backfoot following the dovish Fed Chair Powell’s press conference where he downplayed the inflation risk and put more emphasis on the labour market.

The US equities, after giving back the post-FOMC gains overnight, are now recovering the losses. US Treasury yields are trading near today’s lows, which also underpinning gold and silver.

In the American session, the main highlight will be the release of the US Jobless Claims figures. Initial Claims are expected at 220K vs 191K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1947K vs 1939K prior.

The data has been pointing to a “low firing, low hiring” labour market for a very long time, and as Fed Chair Powell said yesterday, that’s an unusual situation. The Fed is trying to help the demand side and turn it more into a “low firing, higher hiring” labour market without stoking inflation.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 12/12/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 11 December 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Markets reacted to the Fed’s third rate cut and hawkish outlook alongside Oracle’s weak AI-driven earnings, with no fresh macro data but Hong Kong’s mirroring rate reduction providing support; tech-heavy instruments like SoftBank and Nasdaq futures bore the brunt of declines, while Hang Seng and silver advanced amid dollar weakness.​

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Traders prioritize delayed U.S. September trade balance and inventories data at 8:30-10:00 AM ET, plus jobless claims, against yesterday’s Fed acknowledgment of moderate growth, rising unemployment, and sticky inflation—potentially amplifying dollar weakness and equity volatility seen in Oracle’s drop and euro gains. European focus remains on November CPI echoes at 2.2% and labor metrics, with no blockbuster prints but Fed/ECB policy ripples in play.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar index dropped to its lowest since October 21, reaching 98.543 against a broader currency basket, as investors sold off amid Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments signaling dovish tones. Gains in rival currencies like the euro (above $1.17), yen (to 155.66), Australian dollar, and others pressured the USD further.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path; updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for  27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading near 4,215 USD per ounce today and remains in a broadly bullish trend, but price action is more cautious after strong gains in recent weeks. Market participants link the elevated price to expectations of upcoming US rate cuts and ongoing macro uncertainty, while technical analyses emphasize that the uptrend stays intact above support around 4,000–4,050 USD/oz, with scope for further upside toward the mid‑4,000s if sentiment and data remain supportive.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

Trading in the Euro is shaped more by global dollar weakness and Fed rate‑cut expectations than by any single euro‑area data release, leaving the currency edging up but still capped below the 1.17 resistance zone. In this environment, investors view the Euro as benefiting from relatively stable ECB policy and a slowly improving growth outlook, while remaining sensitive to any surprise in US rates, euro‑area data, or geopolitical developments affecting Europe.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, supported by stable banking-sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (8:30 am GMT)

SNB Policy Rate (8:30 am GMT)

SNB Press Conference (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc is modestly firmer against the U.S. dollar but slightly softer versus the euro as traders focus on the SNB’s December policy meeting, where the bank is expected to keep its key rate at 0% and reiterate a bias toward FX‑market intervention rather than renewed negative rates. With USD/CHF trading near 0.80 after recent dollar weakness and EUR/CHF holding just under 0.94, the franc remains strong in a 12‑month view but has eased off its peaks as global risk appetite improves and markets look ahead to both SNB and Federal Reserve guidance on the 2026 rate path.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its 11 December 2025 monetary policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, extending the pause that began in September as the Governing Board judges that current settings are sufficient to keep inflation near, but still below, its target while avoiding an unnecessary move into negative rates.
• Recent data show that the tentative rebound in Swiss inflation has stalled, with headline CPI easing from 0.1% year‑on‑year in October to 0.0% in November and core inflation slipping to about 0.4%, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain very weak and that deflation risks, while contained, have not fully disappeared.
• The SNB’s conditional inflation forecast is likely to remain close to the September projections, with inflation still seen averaging roughly 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027 under an unchanged policy rate path, though the latest CPI prints argue for a slightly lower near‑term profile and keep open the option of renewed easing if activity or prices weaken further.
• The global backdrop has deteriorated further, as continuing U.S. tariff actions and softer external demand weigh on world trade, while uncertainty in key European and U.S. markets for Swiss exports persists, leaving the SNB cautious about the growth outlook despite Switzerland’s relatively resilient domestic demand.
• Business and labor‑market sentiment in export‑oriented manufacturing remains subdued, with firms reporting pressure on margins from the still‑strong franc and softer foreign orders, although the broader economy is still expected to grow at around 1–1.5% in 2025 and unemployment only drifting up gradually from low levels.
• The SNB continues to stress its willingness to act if deflation risks re‑emerge, reiterating that it can ease policy through renewed rate cuts or targeted foreign‑exchange intervention if necessary, while also highlighting its commitment to transparent communication, including the publication of detailed minutes from recent assessments and ongoing dialogue with international partners on FX policy

The next meeting is on 19 March 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (Tentative)

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (10:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound is trading slightly on the back foot but still within a broader uptrend, with GBP/USD hovering around the mid‑1.33 region as traders anticipate a possible Bank of England rate cut on 18 December and weigh recent signs of UK economic softness. Market commentary points to cautious sentiment, with central‑bank divisions over the pace of easing and nearby resistance levels capping sterling’s gains while support around 1.33 helps prevent a sharper sell‑off.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar is holding a slight advantage against the U.S. dollar, with USD/CAD trading just below 1.38 after the Bank of Canada kept its key rate at 2.25% and signalled a pause in its easing cycle. The loonie has firmed over the past month as markets respond to a softer U.S. dollar, expectations of steady Canadian policy, and support from commodities and generally resilient domestic data. Overall, traders see CAD in a relatively stable, mildly constructive trend unless upcoming North American data or central‑bank communication shifts the interest‑rate outlook materially.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to limit overall resale volumes, resulting in only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil is trading weak, with WTI around the upper‑50s and Brent near 62 USD per barrel as traders focus on a looming supply glut highlighted by recent OPEC and IEA outlooks and record U.S. production forecasts. Despite a modest boost from a recent U.S. rate cut, the market tone remains cautious, and technical indicators continue to signal a prevailing downtrend with risks of further tests of support around the mid‑50s if demand data disappoints.​

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 11 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 98.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 97.97

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.06
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1679

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1644

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1727

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 181.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 179.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 183.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8749

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8708
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8779
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3353

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3287
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3452
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 207.17

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 205.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 209.23
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8029

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7987
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8098
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 155.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 153.26

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 157.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                       

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3890

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3768

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3960

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6628

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6572

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6684

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5796

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5761

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5842

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 47,892.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 47,462.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,411.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 23,945.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,488.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,444.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish  

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,773.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,673.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,920.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 94,626.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 88,893.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 100,094.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,230.74

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 2,904.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,675.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 59.47

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 57.63
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 61.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,149.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,083.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,255.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 11th December 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down -1.10%, Shanghai Composite down -0.46%, Hang Seng down -0.15% ASX up 0.17%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,242.75 (0.42%), Silver at $62.307 (2.06%), Brent Oil at $62.16 (-0.08%), WTI Oil at $58.44 (0.03%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.128, UK 10-year yield at 4.5070, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8563

News & Data:

• (CAD) Overnight Rate  2.25%  to 2.25% expected
• (USD) Employment Cost Index q/q  0.8%  to 0.9% expected

Markets Update:

Asian markets traded mixed on Thursday, despite broadly positive cues from Wall Street, after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third straight meeting by a quarter point and signaled only one rate cut in 2026. While most Fed officials supported the move, three dissented, highlighting divisions over the future rate path. Asian markets had ended mostly lower on Wednesday.

Australian shares were modestly higher, breaking a three-session losing streak, supported by strength in mining and technology stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 moved above 8,600, while major miners like Rio Tinto, Fortescue and BHP advanced. Oil stocks were mostly firm, though tech names saw mixed moves. Big banks were slightly higher, and gold miners posted solid gains. Flight Centre shares jumped on news of a UK acquisition, while Fenix Resources surged after unveiling a major production plan. Economic data showed Australia’s unemployment rate steady at 4.3 percent, while job numbers declined.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded sharply lower, dragged by weakness in SoftBank, Fast Retailing, automakers and several major industrial names, despite some strength in select technology and manufacturing stocks. The index dropped toward 50,300. The Japanese yen traded in the high 155-per-dollar range.

Across the region, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia posted small gains, while China, Taiwan, South Korea and New Zealand edged lower. On Wall Street, major US indexes closed higher following the Fed decision, while European markets ended mixed. Crude oil prices inched up after a larger-than-expected drop in US inventories.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Thursday 11th December 2025: Asian Markets Mixed as Fed Signals Limited Rate Cuts Ahead first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Rally After Fed Cut – Dow up 1%

US markets pushed higher overnight as the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points and signalled the potential for another reduction in 2026. The move helped lift equities across the board, with the Dow jumping 1.05% to 48,057, the S&P 500 rising 0.67% to 6,886, and the Nasdaq adding 0.33% to 23,651. Treasury yields dropped after the decision, with the 2-year slipping 7.6 bps to 3.538% and the 10-year down 4.1 bps to 4.147%, while the US dollar weakened sharply, the DXY falling 0.58% to 98.66. The softer greenback provided a tailwind for commodities. Brent crude climbed 1.21% to $62.29, while WTI gained 0.36% to $58.46 following reports that the US had seized an oil tanker near Venezuela. Gold also extended its recent strength, rising 0.49% to $4,228.79 as lower yields and a weaker dollar improved demand.

Fed Cuts 25 – But What Now?

It has been a relatively muted reaction in markets to last night’s Fed rate cut as investors digest the 25-basis-point cut and the dot plot that predicts just one cut in 2026. Market commentators are split on guidance from Jerome Powell and the FOMC, with the statement, dot plot and press conference all giving a bit of fuel to both doves and hawks. That is probably a fair call given the issues the Fed are facing, as we still see sticky inflation competing with a falling (but not by too much) jobs market. The initial reaction has been a lean towards a dovish conclusion, with stocks rallying and the dollar and yields falling; however, the next couple of trading sessions will probably give us a more conclusive answer on what investors really think the Fed’s path will be in 2026. Most market participants are expecting to see some choppy trading in the days ahead as the market continues to adjust and we start to hear from individual Fed members after they are released from their meeting-talks shutdown.

Another Busy Day Ahead for Traders

With investors still digesting the Fed’s outlook, attention now shifts to a packed schedule today. There are further data and central bank updates due across the trading sessions, and investors are expecting more volatility. The Asian session will see a big focus on Australian markets with key employment data due out. The monthly Employment Change number is expected to show a 20k increase, and the Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 4.4%, and any deviations will likely see some big moves for the Aussie. The London session will see the latest update on interest rates from the Swiss National Bank, with expectations that they will keep rates on hold at 0% despite continuing low-inflation conditions. Again, traders are expecting moves in the franc on updates from the statement and press conference. It is a quieter day in the US session today with just the weekly unemployment claims (exp. 220K) on the calendar; however, investors are expecting to see more reaction from last night’s Fed update to keep markets moving.

The post General Market Analysis – 11/12/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 December 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Markets traded in classic pre‑Fed mode: equity indices were broadly flat to slightly weaker, longer‑dated Treasury yields lingered near recent highs, and the dollar eased modestly as traders largely priced in a 25 bp cut but braced for potentially hawkish forward guidance. With only minor U.S. macro releases on the day (weekly mortgage data) and no major surprises, positioning and options flows around the Fed dominated, pushing implied volatility up from low levels while keeping realized moves relatively contained.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders will be trading in the shadow of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and guidance, with attention on how U.S. yields and the dollar react, while watching key regional data such as Australian labour figures and Japanese bond auctions alongside lingering concerns over China’s growth mix and sector-specific stories like steel exports. Broadly, the backdrop is one of cautious risk appetite: Asian equities have been mixed, commodities and AI-related themes remain active, and geopolitical and policy risks continue to inject potential volatility.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar is trading on the back foot, with the Dollar Index around the high‑90s, down on the month, and significantly weaker over the past year as markets lean toward a December Fed rate cut. The euro is holding above 1.16, the yen sits in the mid‑150s per dollar, and several other major and emerging‑market currencies are either steady or modestly firmer against the U.S. currency, underscoring a broad but measured easing in dollar strength rather than a sharp sell‑off.​​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path; updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading just above 4,190–4,200 USD per ounce, close to recent highs and more than 50% higher than a year ago, as investors balance firm structural support against near‑term event risk. The market is anchored by expectations of a U.S. rate cut, a softer dollar, and heavy central‑bank and ETF buying, while geopolitical and financial uncertainty continue to underpin its role as a hedge.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Employment Change (12:30 am GMT)

Unemployment Rate (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar is modestly firmer, trading near recent highs against the US dollar, underpinned by a hawkish RBA, softer US dollar expectations, and better Chinese trade data, while markets wait on upcoming Australian releases and the Fed decision for the next major directional cue.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November 2025 policy meeting, adopting a cautious tone amid a surprise uptick in inflation data for the September quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive pause since the 25 basis point cut in August. The Board attributed some of the inflation rise to temporary factors like higher petrol prices and council rates, but noted signs of more persistent pressures from consumer demand.​
• Policymakers emphasized vigilance on inflation, with trimmed mean inflation expected to remain elevated in the near term before nearing the 2–3% target midpoint by mid-2027. Recent data showed underlying inflation staying above target until at least the second half of 2026, prompting upward revisions to forecasts. Capacity pressures are seen as slightly more pronounced than previously assessed, delaying any easing.
• Headline CPI for the September quarter exceeded expectations, driven partly by temporary items, while underlying measures signal ongoing stickiness. The shift to monthly CPI reporting, with the first full edition in November 2025, will enhance real-time inflation monitoring. Housing and services remain resilient contributors to price pressures.
• Domestic demand shows firmness in services alongside below-trend growth elsewhere, with capacity pressures not expected to ease significantly. The labor market is gradually softening, with unemployment projected to stabilize around 4.4%, though wage growth and productivity dynamics keep unit labor costs a concern. Household spending faces headwinds from high borrowing costs.​
• Global risks include geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility, set against modestly revised-up world growth outlooks. The Board describes its policy as mildly restrictive and data-dependent, balancing inflation control with employment goals. No rate hike was considered despite the inflation surprise.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive to address lingering price stability risks amid household and global vulnerabilities. Communications reaffirm the dual mandate of 2–3% inflation and full employment, with readiness to adjust based on incoming data.​
• Market expectations point to the cash rate holding through early 2026, with a possible modest cut to 3.3% mid-year if inflation eases as forecast. The new monthly CPI data will be key for timely insights.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 2 to 3 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

Today the New Zealand dollar is trading in a narrow range near 0.578 against the US dollar, extending a month‑long mild recovery but still sitting close to multi‑month lows on a one‑year view. The main story remains macro rather than headline news: soft New Zealand data and earlier RBNZ rate cuts have created a low‑yield environment that dampens demand for the currency, even as the central bank hints that the easing cycle may be nearing its end. At the same time, a relatively resilient US dollar and cautious expectations for Federal Reserve rate reductions are keeping NZD/USD locked in a sideways, consolidating pattern, with analysts expecting only modest moves into year‑end barring a surprise in global risk sentiment or key New Zealand data.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen is trading weaker near recent lows as markets wait for fresh confirmation of a Bank of Japan rate hike later in December, with USD/JPY around the mid‑156 area and volatility driven mainly by shifting expectations for U.S.–Japan yield differentials. USD/JPY has edged higher toward about 156.9 as of December 9–10, reflecting renewed dollar strength and modest selling of the yen after its brief recovery earlier this month.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil is trading slightly lower to steady around the high‑50s to low‑60s per barrel region on Wednesday, 10 December 2025, with markets focused on a mix of soft demand expectations, recovering supply, and major central‑bank decisions that could affect future energy consumption. ​Geopolitical risk from the Ukraine conflict and tensions involving Russia and Venezuela is providing a floor under prices, as traders weigh the chance of further disruptions to Russian exports or sanctions changes.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Australia November employment -21.3K vs +20.0K expected
• Mexico approves tariffs as high as 50% taiff on Chinese and Asian imports
• UK RICS house price survey -16 vs -21 expected
• New Zealand Q3 manufacturing sales +1.1% vs -2.9% prior
• Japan Q4 business survey index +4.7% vs +3.8%
• RBC forecasts gold to average $4,600 in 2026 and hit $5,100 in 2027
• Shares of Oracle fall 10% the questions about AI spending continue

Markets:

• Gold down $15 to $4212
• US 10-year yields down 4 bps to 4.12%
• WTI crude oil flat at $58.45
• S&P 500 futures down 53 points or 0.8%
• JPY leads, AUD lags

The Australian dollar struggled after a soft jobs report. The unemployment rate managed to hold steady but only because of a three-tick drop in the participation rate. AUD fell about 20 pips on the headline but that was the extent of that move.

The continued selling in AUD after that came on generalized risk aversion and an unwind of the post-Fed trade. After the decision, the US dollar sold off and stock markets rallied. The move in stock markets has been completely erased and the dollar is rebounding. The equity selling was helped along by a bad post-earnings reaction in Oracle shares, which are down 11% and nearly 50% since their prior earnings spike.

The theme around AI overspending and profitability isn’t going away and will likely nag markets throughout the year ahead.

Neither will tariffs and Mexico made an interesting move by blocking off much of its Asia imports via tariffs. That sets up a potential negotiation with the US to create a bloc and replace Chinese low-cost goods.

Other moves saw silver hit as high as $62.88 as that rally continues. But the profit taking quickly unwound the gains on the day and gold is down modestly.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.