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Fitch Ratings warned that Japan’s new stimulus package could add fiscal risks if it leads to a sustained loosening of policy and pushes government debt higher. While the package is large — roughly 3.4% of GDP — Fitch said its true fiscal impact is unclear because some measures are non-fiscal, spread over multiple years, or face implementation risk.

Fitch noted Japan still has rating headroom after recent stronger fiscal performance, but stressed that persistently higher spending or rising real interest rates could threaten the country’s A/Stable rating. The agency continues to expect debt/GDP to decline gradually in coming years, but reiterated that Japan’s exceptionally high debt and weak medium-term growth remain major vulnerabilities.

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The Fitch caution may moderate JGB bullishness and raises focus on Japan’s debt path and policy mix, though the agency’s tone remains measured rather than overtly negative.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Wood Mackenzie expects China’s oil demand growth to slow sharply over the next few years, approaching zero by 2027 as the country nears peak consumption.

• Senior analyst Alan Gelder said gasoline and diesel demand are already in decline, with only modest growth remaining in jet fuel — and even that driven mainly by petrochemicals rather than transport.
• Crude runs are expected to edge higher in 2026 compared with 2025, but weak underlying demand means growth will be limited.

Gelder highlighted large inventory builds earlier this year, followed by recent drawdowns as prices softened. He said the key uncertainty for global oil markets in 2026 is the extent to which China rebuilds commercial inventories, especially given limited growth in crude runs and rising refined-product exports. How much surplus crude ends up in Chinese storage will have a significant influence on the trajectory of global oil prices.

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The shift toward near-zero demand growth reduces China’s role as the global oil demand engine and places greater emphasis on inventory flows. Traders will closely track Chinese crude storage decisions, which could tighten or loosen balances quickly.

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Wood Mackenzie is a global energy and resources research and consultancy firm known for its analysis of oil, gas, power, metals and mining markets

• provides data-driven forecasts, asset valuations and strategic insights to governments, producers, traders and financial institutions
• firm is widely regarded as a leading authority on long-term energy trends and commodity market fundamentals.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

For the second half of last week, I was in Singapore attending the FIX Southeast Asia Multi-Asset Trading Conference 2025. It was a fairly engrossing event with plenty of interesting topics being shared and discussed throughout.

The conference started on time, more or less as these thing usually go, with a breakfast session for attendees to get to meet and greet. I’m not a coffee person, so I only helped myself to a croissant and tea while speaking to some of the organising members and the early attendees. It was nice to get to know people from other facets of the industry in sharing experiences and intellect on the vast difference that is global financial markets.

Before you know it, they rang the bell informing us that the event was about to begin and we moved from the breakfast room to the conference room. It was a nice change of pace in having to just focus on one screen for a day rather than multiple screens I would say.

The focus of the event is as per the name itself, that is to understand the technological changes in the industry and how this is all leading to everyone having access and capacity to participate in the many assets that financial markets have to offer. The event agenda comprised of the following topics and speakers:

• Markets in Motion: Structure, Innovation & Market Mechanics (Jean-Remi Lopez, Winnie Khattar, Larry Tabb)
• Accelerating Singapore’s Market Momentum: Liquidity Trends, Initiatives and Product Expansion (Bliss Chang)
• Market in Focus: Vietnam’s Emerging Market Upgrades (J.P. Riña, James Busch, Anthony Le, Hang Le, Khashayar Surti)
• 24/5 Trading of the US Markets: Should Institutional Investors Take Notice? (Abhishek Janaki, Robb Baiad, Jimmy Redbourn, Alexander Thorhauge)
• AI in Action: How Trading Desks are Experimenting with GenAI (Andrew Jim, Benoit Doumas, Pooja Kumari, Michael Smith)
• Fireside Chat: Foster Innovation and the Application of AI (Ankit Mittal, Kenneth Gay)
• Fireside Chat: Asia Unlocked: Liquidity, Access, and Innovation (Meiyan Ding, Kelly Kong)
• Panel: Are Tokenized Assets Ready for Prime Time? (Edward Mangles, Boon-Hiong Chan, Sagar Desai, Andrew Scott)
• Panel: Blueprint for the Truly Multi-Asset Trading Desk (Roland de Marsangy, Michael Bok, Julien de Jaillon, Matthew McLoughlin, Mike Powell)

There were plenty of discussions surrounding the use of AI and how it is transforming the industry as a whole. From back office systems to actual trade implementations, everyone can agree that the speed in which the technology is capturing the space is rather breathtaking. But again, the key thing in moving all of this forward is efficient and proficient usage of the technology and not just for the sake of convenience while sacrificing actual results at the end of the day.

On how AI can be used in trading, I would argue the point made about it being an assistance tool to the trader is perhaps the most compelling. It will take years still, if even possible, for AI to understand the subtle nuances in reading markets and understanding holistically what goes into a trade. It’s complex and something even us as humans, with years of expertise and knowledge, still struggle with. And even until this day, the landscape of markets is always evolving and we as traders also have to. So, to expect technology to compensate for that is still quite a stretch I would say.

Sure, there are algos and AI tools spewing out trade systems and pattern recognition and what not. However, it really cannot compare and cannot be expected to perform consistently in the long-run as markets are constantly changing and evolving all at the same time alongside the people who are actually involved in it.

As such, the case of using AI as an assistant tool is made more plausible in it helping us to summarise what may be our best trade executions in terms of timing, asset class, performance selection, etc. And it being able to quickly chart historical patterns in our trading to identify the kind of risk measures that we are using and to tweak that where necessary in our future trades.

All of that seems to carry more weight than expecting AI to replace humans in fundamental trade execution at the end of the day, at least for now.

Besides that, I found the topic of tokenisation to be rather interesting and how it will eventually change up the whole financial system landscape in terms of democratising assets and making them accessible to everyone and anyone.

There’s still some ways to go on that of course, as regulatory lines continue to be the main hurdle. There’s no one single body in the world that can be tasked to handle this space and that’s the main issue that is blocking tokenisation from really taking flight.

But the idea here is one as shared from the conference, that being akin to if you’ve heard a song playing in the shopping complex. You’ll whip out your phone to ask what song that is. And the next step is that you won’t be recommended to travel 6-7 kilometres to the record store to pick up a vinyl copy just so you can listen to the song again. You’d instead be pushed to the digital route of listening to the song on iTunes or Spotify and that will be instant, just a touch of a button away.

And that’s essentially where we’re headed in terms of how democratisation of assets is going to work in the future.

No more having to deal with sell side representatives. No more needing to deal with fund managers. No more having to pay extra fees to invest in funds because you’d otherwise have no access to. Instead when tokenised, access to these funds will easily be with just a tap of a screen on an exchange. Quick, seamless, easy.

I found that part of the conference to be most interesting but again, it’s not something that we might see in the next decade. But given time, expect the idea to keep coming back around and regulators having to keep fighting to control the space and prevent necessary fraud and also to *cough* protect their own interests.

In rounding things off, it was a sharing session on how firms are all pivoting towards a genuinely multi-asset trading desk setup. And that’s something that we here at investingLive can also relate to. It’s not just a one person fit for each and every category in the market, but instead it is a one person fit for all categories.

You can’t just be a trader in wanting to focus solely on FX or equities or bonds. In a world that is so fast-paced as it is now and how interconnected markets are, you have to be a trader for everything. And if not, at the very least have the necessary knowledge and understanding in making that connection between markets.

Of course for the bigger firms, it’s all about “leveraging assets” to “move the needle”, “streamlining” processes to “maximise efficiency and synergy”. To cut out the corporate lingo, it’s really just about maximising profits and reducing costs.

In this day and age and with the technology that we have, it doesn’t make sense to have silo traders who are just focused on their own asset class. You need flexibility and that’s where the idea of a multi-asset trading desk comes in.

However, it’s not just about the people and the number of staff. It’s also about the solution offering to clients and how quickly the desk can pick up on opportunities across different markets and to use that expertise and strong suit to capitalise on trades to make profits.

And that’s something I wholeheartedly agree as well. Knowledge is everything when it comes to trading. You may not use everything that you know in a trade but it is always better to be in the know than to be left out and having to be sidelined just because you didn’t understand something well enough.

In the current landscape, no person can truly say that they’d be better off trading just FX or equities or bonds or commodities without looking at each and every market. Everything is interconnected and it’s always best to understand what is happening in other markets before it comes back to bite at you.

We may not think that we’d need that now but when the opportunity comes, it really, really does pay to know your sh*t. Otherwise, these are still good things to keep in your back pocket.

It’s basically just like an umbrella. Even if it’s the summer and it almost never rains, it’s best to have it in case of that 5% chance it does one day. And in trading, sometimes that 5% chance is all it takes to make or break your livelihood.

In ending, I just want to offer my thanks and a big thumbs up to the FIX Trading Community for organising a really cool and successful event here in Singapore. Looking forward to the next one!

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

China’s industrial profits remained positive over the first ten months of the year, rising 1.9% from a year earlier, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The January–October increase marked a slowdown from the 3.2% gain recorded in the January–September period, signalling some loss of momentum as weak domestic demand and uneven manufacturing performance persist.

For October alone, industrial profits fell 5.5% y/y, highlighting renewed pressure on margins even as upstream cost conditions have stabilised. The figures cover larger industrial firms with annual operating revenue of at least 20 million yuan.

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The data underscores patchy manufacturing momentum, offering limited support for China-sensitive commodities and adding to the argument for further targeted policy support.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

AustralianQ3 Private Capital Expenditure

• Building capex rose 2.1% q/q (previous 0.2%).

• Plant and machinery capex jumped 11.5% q/q.

• New capital expenditure increased 6.4% q/q (forecast 0.5%, previous 0.2%).

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

That figure is up from the £9.9 billion headroom as set out in their forecast in March. As for the other details:

• Budget extends freezes of personal tax thresholds for a further 3 years from 2028-29 to 2030-31
• The freezing of personal tax and employer NICs thresholds raises £8.0 billion
• Increases to dividend, property, savings tax rates raises £2.1 billion
• NICs on salary-sacrifice pensions raises £4.7 billion
• There will be a total increase in receipts by £14.9 billion on personal tax changes
• To impose tax on properties worth over £2 million
• Charge on electric, plug-in hybrid cars starting from April 2028, which raises £1.4 billion
• Reforms to gambling tax raises £1.1 billion
• Budget policies increase spending in every year and by £11 billion in 2029-30
• As a share of GDP, the budget delivers third-largest medium-term tax increase since 2010
• Probability of meeting current budget target is at 59% (previously 54% in March)
• 2025 GDP growth seen at 1.5% (previously 1.0%)
• 2026 GDP growth seen at 1.4% (previously 1.9%)
• 2027 GDP growth seen at 1.5%
• 2025 CPI inflation seen at 3.5% (previously 3.3%)
• 2027 CPI inflation seen at 2.0%
• Debt as a share of GDP seen at 95% this year and to end the decade at 96%
• Full document

This feels a little odd as some of these things feel like they should be part of the budget announcement itself. Markets are already of course taking to it and reacting accordingly with UK gilt yields tumbling lower while the pound spiked higher for a brief moment before settling a little bit.

10-year yields in the UK are down from 4.50% to 4.46% while GBP/USD pushed up from around 1.3155 earlier to 1.3185 currently with the high earlier touching 1.3200.

The big round numbers are what we’re looking for and they are a positive, especially the fiscal headroom indicated in the headline. So, no need for Reeves I guess? Seems like we could just call it a day unless she messes up the delivery.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

New Zealand November business confidence 67.1%, the highest in 11 years

• prior 58.1%

Business activity 53.1%

• prior 44.6%

New Zealand posting solid numbers yet again.

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Earlier:

• RBNZ’s Hawkesby says policy now stimulatory but warns on global independence risks
• New Zealand Q3 retail sales show huge jump, much improved from Q2

The news from yesterday has lifted the NZD:

• investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD up (high CPI), NZD up (rate cut), JPY up (BoJ
• investingLive Americas FX news wrap 26 Nov:NZD soars on Hawkish Cut/GBP rallies on budget

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan is preparing to significantly expand short-tenor bond issuance to help fund its latest economic stimulus package, according to officials speaking to Reuters. The government plans to boost issuance of two- and five-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs), lifting total scheduled JGB sales for the fiscal year through March by roughly ¥7 trillion from the current ¥171.8 trillion target. Longer-dated supply, 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-year bonds, will remain unchanged.

The revised funding plan also includes an additional ¥6 trillion in treasury discount bills to strengthen near-term financing capacity. Monthly issuance of two- and five-year JGBs is expected to rise by ¥100 billion each from January. The proposal will be presented to primary dealers on Thursday before going to cabinet for approval on Friday, alongside the extra budget tied to the stimulus programme.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump privately urged Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to soften her rhetoric toward China after she came out forcefully on Taiwan.

According to people familiar with the call, Trump encouraged Takaichi to “lower the tone” in order to avoid inflaming tensions with President Xi Jinping at a delicate moment in U.S.–China–Japan relations. The exchange underscores the geopolitical sensitivity surrounding Taiwan, where Japan’s vocal support has drawn Beijing’s ire, and highlights Washington’s ongoing efforts to manage allied messaging as it navigates its own strategic competition with China.

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Some background on this for weeks ago, this issue is not going away:

• China State Media: China Pres. Xi and US Pres. Trump held call

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Soaring NZ retail sales for Q3 2025.

New Zealand Retail Sales +1.9% q/q

• expected +0.6%, prior +0.5%

New Zealand Retail Sales Quarterly vs. Year Ago +4.5%

• prior +2.3%

Signs of a New Zealand economy getting off the canvas has been welcomed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Bank pushed the door shut on further rate cuts in is statement/minutes/conference yesterday. Barring a return to poor economic performance, of course.

The new Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor, Dr Anna Breman, will begin on 1 December 2025. She’s walking into an improved situation.

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The NZD remained firm on Wednesday trade in Europe and US after jumping here in Asia after the RBNZ announcement:

• investingLive Americas FX news wrap 26 Nov:NZD soars on Hawkish Cut/GBP rallies on budget

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Major US indices close higher for the 4th consecutive day
• Carney to meet Trump at World Cup draw as Canada-U.S. trade talks remain frozen
• RBNZ Hawkesby: We are in a position where we can sort of watch and see how things progress
• NZ Finance minister names Rodger Finlay chair of the RBNZ
• Two military personnel shot near the White House according to ABC News
• Crude oil futures settle at $58.65
• Federal Reserve minutes from the November meeting:Little changed since the previous report
• Baker Hughes oil rig count -12 to 407
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow falls to 3.9% from 4.0%
• US 30 year fixed-rate mortgage 6.23% vs 6.26% last week
• Major European’s indices close higher
• The US treasury sells $44 billion of 7 year notes at a high yield of 3.781%
• ECB’s Lane: For sustainability of inflation at 2%, needs to see deceleration of energy px
• Crude oil inventories build of 2.774 million versus estimate 0.055 million
• Tech sector rallies: Nvidia leads the charge, Google stumbles
• ECBs Vujcic: It has become more difficult to forecast food inflation due to climate change
• US Durable goods orders for September 0.5% versus 0.3% estimate
• US initial jobless claims 216K vs 225K expected
• investingLive European markets wrap: Another UK budget fiasco
• UK chancellor Reeves: There will be no return to austerity

The US Dollar traded mostly lower against most major peers today (with the notable exception of the Yen), as risk appetite returned to the markets and specific domestic catalysts drove outperformance in the New Zealand Dollar and British Pound.

1. The RBNZ Shock: A “Hawkish Cut” (NZD +1.32%)

The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) was the undisputed top performer of the day, surging 1.32% to 0.5694.

• The Catalyst: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25%, as widely expected.

• The Twist: Despite the cut, the move was interpreted as “hawkish” because the RBNZ explicitly signaled that the easing cycle is effectively over. Governor Christian Hawkesby’s committee indicated that rates are likely to remain on hold throughout 2026, defying market expectations for deeper cuts.

• Market Reaction: This “one-and-done” signal forced a massive repricing of interest rate expectations, triggering a short squeeze that propelled the Kiwi significantly higher against the Greenback and the Aussie.

2. Sterling and the Budget (GBP +0.49%)

The British Pound (Cable) staged a solid recovery, rising 0.49% to 1.3231, as markets reacted positively to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Autumn Budget.

• Budget Summary: The Chancellor delivered a “growth-focused” budget that avoided the worst-case tax scenarios feared by the City. Key points included:

  • No new bank taxes: A decision to avoid a fresh tax squeeze on the banking sector reassured investors.

  • Fiscal Headroom: The release (inadvertently leaked early by the OBR) revealed a larger-than-anticipated fiscal buffer, signaling fiscal responsibility alongside investment.

  • Lack of 2026 Tax Hikes: The absence of aggressive future tax hikes for the coming year calmed “budget jitters.”

• Market Reaction: The combination of fiscal prudence and growth initiatives triggered a relief rally. Gilt yields eased, and the Pound moved higher as the “uncertainty risk premium” that had weighed on the currency in recent weeks evaporated.

3. Broader Currency Moves

• USD/JPY (+0.27% to 156.46): The Yen was an outlier, weakening slightly against the Dollar. This move largely reflects improved global risk sentiment (equity markets recovering, fueled by reports of a potential Ukraine-Russia peace framework), which reduced demand for safe-haven assets like the Yen. The lower JPY also occurred despite expectations that the BOJ may look to raise rates in reaction to the weaker JPY. Well the JPY was weaker today.

• USD/CAD (-0.41% to 1.4038): The Canadian Dollar strengthened (pushing USD/CAD lower) despite oil prices testing key support levels. The Loonie likely benefited from the broad weakness in the USD and positive cross-border trade sentiment.

• AUD/USD (+0.76% to 0.6516): The Australian Dollar rallied in sympathy with the NZD and benefited from the overall “risk-on” tone in global markets.

Fundamentally and other market data.

• US initial jobless claims came in lower than expectations that 216K vs 225K last week. No noticeable slowdown in the weekly claims.
• US durable goods came in stronger than expectations, but it was for the month of September as they catch up continues
• Crude oil inventories showed a greater than expected build of inventories. Despite the build, will prices are higher in the day by $0.63 at $58.58
• Gold prices moved higher by $34 or 0.83% at $4164
• Silver soared by $1.80 or 3.5% to $53.25
• Bitcoin rose sharply by $3000 or 3.3% to $90299 (see post here). The high price reached $90,445. The next target comes in at $94,229 (the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October 27 swing high).
• US stocks moved higher led by the NASDAQ index up 0.82%. The S&P index rose 0.69% and the Dow industrial average rose 0.67%.
• US yields were mixed with the two-year up to basis points at 3.479%. The 10 year yield was down 0.8 basis points and back below the 4.00 level at 3.994%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing higher led by the NASDAQ index with a gain of 0.82%.

Looking at the closing levels:

• Dow industrial average is up 314.67 points or 0.67% at 47427.12
• S&P index is up 46.73 points or 0.69% at 6812.61
• NASDAQ index is up 189.10 points or 0.82% at 23214.69.

The indices are up for the 4th consecutive day helped by a shift in the Fed bias led by comments from near Fed Pres Williams. The odds of a Fed rate cut moved up from about 35% last week to close to 85% this week. The Fed interest rate decision will take place on December 10. The Fed will enter their blackout period at the close on Friday.

J.P. Morgan is now saying that they expect the Fed to cut in December.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.