Articles

• 0.2 basis point tail

I don’t think that’s going to move the broader market.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There are more details on the 28-point peace plan the US has floated to Russia and Ukraine.

It would require Ukraine to abandon the Donbass region that it still controls. The full details aren’t revealed but it would likely include all of the Donetsk region.

Ukraine would also be required to cut the size of its armed forces in half along with abandoning key categories of weaponry. It would also remove some US military assistance.

In return, Ukraine would get some security guarantees.

The report says that Ukraine was likely to reject the proposal as it favored Russia.

Oil prices fell on earlier reports of the plan.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There is going to be a forever reminder of the US government shutdown on the chart. As rumored, the BLS won’t release the October jobs report.

For the establishment survey, which is the headline number in non-farm payrolls, that number for October will be included on Dec 16 when the November report is released. However the household report for October couldn’t be done, so there will be a blank page.

In other housekeeping, the October JOLTS report will be released on December 9.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The picture you’re looking at is the most-expensive modern art ever sold and the 2nd most-expensive art of any kind ever sold at auction. It’s Gustav Klimt’s portrait of Elisabeth Lederer and it sold at Sotheby’s in New York yesterday for a record $236.4 million after fees, breaking the record previously set by an Andy Warhol.

The high price is good news, and maybe it’s not a surprise. It’s been a bull market and we’re in a K-shaped economy. The ultra rich are doing very well and they are feeling good enough enough to spend huge amounts of money.

Looking deeper at the auction, it wasn’t a one-off. Nearly all of the items sold above estimates, and that’s not a given. A high number of the 24 items also went for 3-4x estimates.

In another quirk, this toilet made out of 18-karat gold also sold for $12 million. It was by Maurizio Cattelan, who is also famous for the banana on the wall. Interestingly, the gold in the toilet itself is worth just below $10 million at today’s prices. If gold rises to $4900, gold would be worth the price alone. That’s a call option on both the art work and the gold market, making it a surprisingly-reasonable investment.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Google shares are up 6.5% today and trading at an all time high.

I wrote about why earlier today. This week, I also wrote about why Nvidia is a bubble and Gemini 3 being trained with Google’s own chips adds to that argument.

I see two paths from here:

1. Google Gemini 3 proved that ‘there is no wall’ in AI and the market gets excited again about the game-changing potential, pushing more money into all the AI names. The whole market continues to go up.
2. The market prices in Alphabet/Google winning (and others losing).

I’m torn.

I think Nvidia is a bubble but shorting the greatest company of a generation is daunting. Jensen Huang argues that the AI market is huge and as the leader, companies building AI will continue to pile into Nvidia chips because they’re the standard, have the software stack and they’re still the best by far. He says that companies are taking a financial risk in betting on anything other than the industry standard (NVIDIA) is too high for CEOs to justify. That’s a powerful argument.

On the flipside, Google just proved you can build a model without Nvidia chips and that means others will as well. At a $5 trillion valuation, the market has priced in an enormous moat for Nvidia that just isn’t there. Earnings are also tonight (preview here) with options implying a +/-7% move.

What will happen to the Nasdaq? I believe Google will outperform but I don’t know if that’s with the rest of the Mag7 and AI names falling. In that case it would be GOOG stock taking market cap from other companies. Or will it just be GOOG stock outperformance in a continued bull market?

The post-earnings reaction to Nvidia may tell us the answer.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Another disappointing earnings report from Target begs two questions:

1. Is this a sign that US consumers are weak?
2. Or that Target isn’t executing?

On the first point, it comes after Home Depot shares were beaten up yesterday on a soft report. With Home Depot, the company blamed the lack of hurricanes and other storms in the quarter and a soft housing market. That’s understandable as the US housing industry has been mired in a brutal recession.

Does Target tell us that it’s more than just housing and weather? Here is what the company had to say:

“Many of the themes remain largely consistent with what we’ve shared in
prior quarters. Guests are choiceful, stretching budgets and
prioritizing value. They’re spending where it matters most, especially
in food, essentials, and beauty,” Target chief commercial officer Rick
Gomez said on a call with reporters.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, the Company is maintaining its expectation of a low-single digit decline in sales but for the full-year, the company cut its earnings guidance to $7.70-$8.70.

Overall revenue and same-store sales were soft. The SSS metric has declined for five straight quarters, suggesting it’s more that just the consumer and indicates problems with the brand. The metric fell 2.7% in Q3, including a 3.7% drop in household essentials.

The company is also spending to upgrade its stores as it tries to recapture its premium-value brand.

Ultimately, I don’t think this is going to sway the market’s view on the consumer but Walmart reports tomorrow and that will tell us more.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Smallest trade deficit of the year
• Prior was $78.3 billion (revised to $78.2B)

This is ancient history but it should lead to a slight tick up in Q3 GDP trackers.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

At long last, the US government is back in action, and the market will get its first major jobs data update in the New York trading session on Thursday. There has been a lot of volatility in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations in the last couple of weeks, with the market initially pricing in strongly a further 25-basis point cut from the FOMC in December, before the data vacuum weighed enough on sentiment to more than halve those expectations. Currently, the market is pricing in a 47% chance that the Fed will cut 25 basis points against 53% on a hold. These expectations could change dramatically if we see Thursday’s Non-Farm Payroll data come in significantly off expectations.

The market is pricing in the headline NFP number to come in around +60k for the month of September, with the Unemployment Rate remaining steady at 4.3% and the Average Hourly Earnings number coming in at a 0.3% month-on-month increase. Traders are expecting the impact of this data to be exacerbated due to the long delay and data vacuum that we have experienced, so anything much weaker than expected should see Fed rate cut expectations jump and the dollar fall, while an against-trend higher print should knock out the December cut and see the dollar rally strongly.

The Euro is set up nicely ahead of the data release, with technical levels close on both sides that should lead to good trading opportunities. It is currently sitting in the middle of the range on the Daily chart, with good trendline support coming in around 1.1535 and resistance around 1.1630. Results +/- 30k on the Non-Farm headline number should see these levels tested, with higher misses likely to lead to good break trade opportunities.

Resistance 2: 1.1655 – November High
Resistance 1: 1.1630 – Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 1.1535 – Trendline Support
Support 2: 1.1468 – November Low

he accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets Global does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets Global assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets Global is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

The post Trade the Euro on the Delayed Non-Farm Payrolls first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 14 November -5.2% vs +0.6% prior
• USDJPY extends gains above the 156.00 handle as Japanese officials keep the dovish stance
• Eurozone September final CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim
• Japan Finance Minister: Held meeting on maintaining close Govt, BoJ coordination
• Traders add to BoE rate cut bets after the UK CPI report
• China Foreign Ministry: Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan have damaged Sino-Japanese relations
• UK October CPI +3.6% vs +3.6% y/y expected
• FX option expiries for 19 November 10am New York cut
• What are the main events for today?

The main highlight of the session was the UK CPI report. The data was in line with forecasts although the services CPI was lower than expected. In terms of market pricing, we haven’t seen big changes of course. The December cut probabilities just rose from 80% to 85%, and the total easing by 2026 from 59 bps to 63 bps after the data. The reaction to the CPI was fairly muted.

The other notable news was the comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama who reaffirmed the dovish policy stance and the cooperation between the Government and the BoJ in achieving sustainable wage gains and economic growth. Although there wasn’t anything new in her comments, the JPY extended the losses further with USDJPY breaking above 156.00.

In other markets, US equities are still ranging but off the lows. The US dollar is basically flat on the day. Gold and silver are extending the gains after bouncing from key supports yesterday. Treasury yields continue to consolidate as traders await the US labour market data.

In the American session, the only highlight is the
FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes are the records of the meeting
detailing the discussions, reasoning and decisions made regarding
monetary policy. They are not market-moving because they are released
three weeks after the meeting, so they became stale by the time they are
released.

In fact, we already heard basically
all the Fed members, and Fed Chair Powell in his press conference gave a
pretty thorough analysis of what they talked about in the meeting with
the now infamous “a December cut is not a foregone conclusion – in fact,
far from it”.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Market index 316.9 vs 334.2 prior
• Purchase index 168.7 vs 172.7 prior
• Refinance index 1156.8 vs 1247.5 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.37% vs 6.34% prior

This
is never a market moving release. Mortgage applications are generally
inversely correlated to mortgage rates.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior +2.2%
• Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.4%

The final figures confirm the preliminary estimates, so nothing to see here.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 20/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.