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China’s Premier Li Qiang met Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in Moscow on Monday, with both sides signalling a push to deepen economic and cultural ties. According to Xinhua, Li said China is ready to expand cooperation with Russia across investment, energy and agriculture, and invited greater volumes of high-quality Russian agricultural and food products into the Chinese market.

Li also urged Moscow to offer more support and operational convenience for Chinese firms investing and operating in Russia. Beyond the economic agenda, the two premiers called for broader exchanges and deeper collaboration in culture, education and film, underscoring efforts to strengthen the social and people-to-people dimension of bilateral relations.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will launch tax-reform talks this week aimed at cutting fuel taxes to support households while identifying offsetting revenue measures to protect fiscal discipline. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner will debate next-year’s tax package, including the already-agreed scrapping of gasoline and diesel surcharges — a move that will leave a ¥1.5 trillion revenue hole.

Info via the Nikkei. In brief:

To plug the gap, the government is considering scaling back major corporate tax breaks, particularly those for R&D and wage-boosting firms, and examining higher taxes on wealthy households, including reforms to the “100-million-yen barrier.” Ministries are split over shrinking the R&D incentive, which cost nearly ¥1 trillion last fiscal year.

Officials are also exploring new investment-focused incentives such as first-year full depreciation for domestic capex, startup-investment tax breaks, and benefits for companies relocating out of central Tokyo. Personal tax changes are on the table too, including expanding the standard deduction and widening mortgage-tax relief by lowering the minimum eligible home size.

Bond yields have risen as investors question the fiscal implications of Takaichi’s stimulus agenda, underscoring the pressure to secure credible offsets before fuel-tax cuts take effect.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• More from Fed’s Waller: A rebound in labor market would maybe mean no need for cuts
• Fed’s Waller says supports a 25bp rate cut at the December 9/10 meeting
• Fed’s Waller continues to make the case for cutting rates in December
• Trump says he would be ok with launching strikes against Mexico to stop drugs
• Bitcoin drops to the lowest since April as the bleed continues
• Fed’s Cook says Atlanta primary residence was an ‘inadvertent notation’
• The thing about wars is that they tend ot develop in ways that you don’t expect
• Stop saying that it’s not a bubble because Nvidia is only trading at 20x forward earnings
• If I were a Japanese policymaker, this chart would make me very nervous
• Bitcoin technicals: The price of bitcoin breaks below support target.
• US August construction spending +0.2% vs -0.1% expected
• Tech sector turmoil: Google defies odds while semiconductors struggle
• Fed’s Jefferson: Need to proceed slowly as mon pol approaches the neutral rate
• A key week for the markets?
• BOE’s Mann: The current environment is showing an upward CPI bias
• Empire State Business conditions survey for November 18.7 versus 5.8 estimate
• Canada October CPI inflation 2.2% y/y vs 2.1% expected
• The USD is mixed vs the 3 major currencies to start the US session and the new week.
• investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar little changed, risk optimism pulls back

Markets:

• Gold down -$58 or -1.44% at $4024.79
• US 10-year yields down -2.1 bps to 4.129%. 2 year down -0.8 bps to 3.6059%
• WTI crude down -$0.33 or -0.55% at $59.76
• USD higher vs all the major currencies. AUD -0.80% and NZD -0.53% the weakest on risk off flows.

The US stocks continued its run lower today after trying to move higher earlier in the session. The stronger than expected Empire manufacturing data (18.1 vs 5.8 estimate) reinforced ideas that strong data is not good news for equity markets as traders worry about a Fed that is more hawkish after 50 basis points of cuts in 2025. Inflation closer to 3% vs 2% and employment still steady (from what they see) has taken out a lot of the hope for a December cut (from near 100% to around 35% currently). Trump appointee Miran is on an island with his view that the Fed needs to be more forward looking. Most of the Fed members can be hopeful inflation eases but getting to 2% to most is still well down the road. Moreover, employment is not alarming – at least for now. PS the Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 3Q rose to 4.1% from 4.0%.

Having said that Fed Vice Chair Jefferson struck a somewhat dovish tone but with caution, emphasizing the need for the Fed to proceed cautiously as policy approaches the neutral rate and downside risks to employment have increased. He noted that he supported last month’s quarter-point rate cut because labor-market risks had risen and said the current policy stance remains somewhat restrictive. Jefferson highlighted that the balance of risks has shifted in recent months, with greater potential downside to employment, while upside inflation risks have eased—especially as tariff-related effects appear temporary. He acknowledged that inflation progress has stalled just below 3% but said available data still point to gradual cooling in both labor supply and demand. Job-market anecdotes remain mixed, with some firms slowing hiring while others continue to add workers and invest. He added that uncertainty remains high heading into the next meeting.

The final numbers in the stock market today shows:

• Dow Industrial Average -557.24 points or -1.18% at 46,590.24
• S&P index – 61.70 points or -0.92% at 6672.41
• Nasdaq -192.51 points or -0.84% at 22708.07

Nvidia will announce it’s earning after the close on Wednesday. The shares fell $3.57 or -1.88% at $186.60. The stock is down -13.82% from its high.

The stock anxiety is also being shown in the price of Bitcoin. It is trading to the lowest level since April 22 and is now comfortably below the 100K level after trading as high as $126,272 on October 6th. The low price today reached $91,168 (down nearly -28% from the all -time high).

There is no flight to safety in gold as it reacts to a higher USD. It fell in trading today

The USD saw a run to the upside in the US session after up and down trading coming into the session. The Empire manufacturing data got the ball rolling as traders gear up for more and more data releases this week including the September jobs report and initial jobless claims which will be release on Thursday. Below are a list of the releases scheduled this week:

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

• Import and Export Price Indexes (October)

• Industrial Production (October)

• Capacity Utilization (October)

• NAHB Housing Market Index (November)

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

• U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (August) – Delayed

• New Residential Construction: Housing Starts and Building Permits (October)

• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November)

• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes (October Meeting)

Thursday, November 20, 2025

• Employment Situation Report (September) – The most critical delayed report, including Non-Farm Payrolls

• Real Earnings (September)

• Existing Home Sales (October)

• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (Latest week)

Friday, November 21, 2025

• S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI (November – Preliminary)

• S&P Global Flash Services PMI (November – Preliminary)

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (November – Revised)

Looking at the changes, the biggest movers were the AUD and the NZD as risk-off sentiment sent those currencies down the most. A snapshot of the moves vs the USD shows:

• EUR +0.30%
• JPY +0.41%
• GBP +0.14%
• CHF +0.33%
• CAD +0.23%
• AUD +0.80%
• NZD _0.50%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

There has been some mild selling in the Mexican peso as Trump just casually mused about bombing the US neighbour. For context, he was asked about launching strikes against Mexico to stop drugs, he said “Ok with me.”

Trump also said he wasn’t happy with Mexico.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The lesson of the trade war so far — unfortunately — is that the US is going to get away with it.

When Europe folded on retaliation and essentially accepted 15% US tariffs, that was the ballgame. It was the only bloc with enough buying power to stand up to the US and fight for the global status quo.

The best case scenario after that (and I think this is what the market is pricing in) is that we move on with a new 15% US status quo, give or take.

Today we might have gotten a hint of the problem with that line of thinking. What we’ve learned is that the bigger trade partner has huge leverage and the smaller ones will roll over. Larger countries and blocs may start to leverage that and trade fights could break out everywhere.

There is a report that the UK is drawing up options to retaliate against new EU steel tariffs. The EU has cut quotes and put on tariffs at up to 50%. In addition, the UK is looking at raising its own steel barriers.

Now this is all pretty rich given that the UK left the EU and is now saying this goes against the ‘spirit’ of a UK-EU summit in London.

On this episode, I have no idea how it turns out but the tariffs weapon is now in play everywhere and that’s going to lead to episodes that spiral, dragging on global growth.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Japanese officials won’t like the continued weakening of the yen.

There were buy stops in the past few minutes as it cracked 155.00 for the first time since February and the momentum has continued to 155.25.

On Friday, the pair dipped on risk aversion only to completely recover alongside stock markets. Today, it’s also stocks driving the move as the rally coincided with a bounce in stock markets. Note though that US stocks are back to flat on the day in choppy trade.

Last week, Credit Agricole said to expect verbal intervention on a break of 155.00. The thing about that is that few in the market are worried about auction intervention, as it’s not even on the radar until +160.

Zooming out to the daily chart, it looks like there is some space to continue the momentum to the January highs near 158.00. The story of the year in all markets this year was early-2025 angst about tariffs and late-2025 relief.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -0.1%

This is ancient history but this is the first bite into the backlog from the government shutdown.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The market got something of a lift late on Friday as Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a stake in Google. That’s helped to lift its shares 3.3% and there continues to be heavy rumors of a blockbuster Gemini 3 release around Nov 22.

Elsewhere though, the picture is less-pretty. The market is feeling angst about Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings.

On Friday, US stocks sold off hard initially before bouncing and finishing flat. That momentum looked set to continue in the pre-market with futures up 40 points but that peaked early in Europe and it’s been steady selling since.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +2.4%
• CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% expected (prior +0.1%)

Core measures

• CPI Bank of Canada core y/y 2.9% vs 2.8% prior
• CPI Bank of Canada core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% prior
• Core CPI m/m SA +0.3% vs +0.3% prior
• Trim 3.0% versus 3.0% expected (prior was 3.1%)
• Median 2.9% versus 3.1% expected (prior was 3.2%)
• Common 2.7% versus 2.7% prior

The Bank of Canada moved to the sidelines after the latest cut and you can see why.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Easy come, easy go
• Reminder: US non-farm payrolls for September will be released this week
• ECB’s Makhlouf: We are in a good place as far as our monetary policy is concerned
• ECB’s de Guindos: I expect inflation to converge towards the 2% target
• BoJ Ueda: Underlying inflation rate remains below target
• Japan prime minister Takaichi to meet with BOJ governor Ueda tomorrow
• Japan growth strategy panel member says BOJ should wait until next year to raise rates
• Simmering tensions continue for China and Japan
• Italy October final CPI +1.2% vs +1.2% y/y prelim
• Euro area economy to grow quicker than estimated in 2025 – EU Commission

Markets:

• GBP leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 3.1 bps to 4.117%
• Gold up 0.1% to $4,083.17
• WTI crude oil down 0.2% to $59.98
• Bitcoin up 1.8% to $95,438

It looked like the start of the new week was going to pick up from where we left off on Friday, whereby the risk optimism will come flowing through. Things certainly started off that way as US futures pushed higher, with tech shares leading the charge. But as we slowly got into the session, the positive vibes are starting to give way to more pensive thoughts once again now.

In a week where we will get the September payrolls release, Nvidia’s earnings look likely to overshadow everything else in markets. And just ahead of that today, Peter Thiel’s hedge fund (Thiel Macro) just said that they sold off their entire stake of Nvidia during the course of Q3. As a reminder, SoftBank also made a similar move here so is there something brewing behind the scenes?

In any case, S&P 500 futures were up as much as 0.6% but have pared gains to be marginally up by 0.1% only now. Nasdaq futures are up 0.2% but that’s a far cry from having been up roughly 1% earlier in the session. As US futures retreated, that also pushed European indices lower in a more sluggish start to the week.

In FX, there wasn’t too much action with the dollar holding steadier for the most part. EUR/USD nudged a little lower back to 1.1600 while USD/JPY continues to keep just under the 155.00 mark with eyes on Tokyo as Takaichi continues to try and pigeonhole the BOJ into not hiking rates in December. Besides that, there wasn’t too much other action of note after we also saw EUR/CHF defending the daily/weekly close of 0.9200 at the end of last week.

In other markets, we are seeing bond yields in the US retreat a little while gold recovers from an earlier dip to $4,050 to steady at $4,083 currently. The battlefield remains muddied in gold after the rise above $4,200 was dashed last week but dip buyers are still seen keeping interested for now at least.

It’s still mostly all about the risk mood in trying to see how settled or unsettled investors are feeling, as the clock continues to count down towards next month’s Fed meeting as well.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• 2025 Eurozone GDP growth forecast seen at 1.3% (previously 0.9%)
• 2026 Eurozone GDP growth forecast seen at 1.2% (previously 1.4%)
• 2025 Eurozone inflation seen at 2.1%, 2026 at 1.9%, 2027 at 2.0%

Besides the standard estimates above, the commission sees some optimism arising from France despite the political struggles this year. They estimate the French budget deficit at 5.5% of GDP in 2025 and sees that easing further to 4.9% in 2026. As for Germany, they see the budget gap rising to 3.1% of GDP in 2025 before increasing further to 4.0% in 2026. As a reminder, the general rule of thumb is that member states must keep government deficit below the threshold of 3% of GDP.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 18/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.