Articles

• Reserve Bank of India rate cut by 25bp
• BOJ likely to hike in December, Bloomberg says; yen jumps on report
• PBOC reins in yuan strength, signalling comfort with current level before key policy event
• USD/INR eases from record highs as markets await RBI decision and guidance
• Chinese GPU makr surges 400% amid booming demand for Nvidia alternatives: “China’s Nvidia”
• Japan’s PM Takaichi shifts tone to calm markets as rising yields test fiscal credibility
• Copper rally accelerates on electrification and AI demand, with forecasts up to $14,000/t
• SoftBank’s Son nears plan for Trump-branded AI factories funded by Japan
• Gold’s explosive rally may reflect a monetary regime shift, not a classic bubble
• India stocks to rise ahead of RBI call as rupee slide challenges rate-cut bets
• Recap: Japan household spending drops sharply, adding pressure ahead of BOJ rate decision
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0749 (vs. estimate at 7.0751)
• INR traders heads up: Reserve Bank India rate cut expected today at 0430 GMT/2330 Eastern
• Japan finmin Katayama: Will closely monitor market developments (plus wider comments)
• Poll: RBA expected hold at 3.60% this month as outlook shifts to long pause through 2026
• China debt crackdown pushes LGFVs into costly shadow loans, reviving hidden-risk worries
• Japan metalworkers union seeks bigger wage hikes, reinforcing BOJ rate-hike expectations
• Japan data huge miss – Household spending plummets in Oct, down 3% y/y vs. +1% expected
• Gold steady around $4,210 as markets await PCE data and next week’s Fed meeting
• BOJ secures support for December hike but long-term rate path remains unclear
• USTR Greer calls for smaller, balanced China trade and tighter USMCA enforcement
• US stocks finish flat as Fed-cut hopes rise but Amazon drags S&P 500
• AMD ready to ship licensed AI chips to China and pay 15% Trump fee
• JP Morgan says Strategy risk, not gold, is key to bitcoin’s $170k. Read between the lines.
• investingLive Americas market news wrap: Initial jobless claims tumble

Local markets traded in a relatively subdued fashion on Thursday as investors looked ahead to Friday’s U.S. Personal Income and Outlays report (0830 ET), which will finally deliver the delayed September PCE and core PCE inflation readings following the government shutdown.

From Japan, October household spending disappointed sharply, falling 3.0% y/y and 3.5% m/m, well below expectations. The slump highlights fragile consumer demand and adds a layer of complexity to the Bank of Japan’s assessment ahead of its December policy meeting.

The Wall Street Journal reported that SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son is working with the White House on a plan to build “Trump Industrial Parks” on U.S. federal land, potentially deploying hundreds of billions of dollars in capital linked to the recent U.S.–Japan trade deal.

In China, Friday’s USD/CNY fixing almost fully removed the recent strengthening bias following a rebound in the U.S. dollar. By setting the fix close to market estimates, the PBOC signalled comfort with current yuan levels and appears intent on maintaining currency stability ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference and Politburo meetings later this month.

Commodities were mixed:

• Gold held around USD 4,200–4,215/oz.

• Copper touched a three-month high on the LME.

• Oil softened slightly.

In corporate news, reports that Netflix is in exclusivity talks to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming assets for $28 per share.

On the central-bank front, Bloomberg reported that the BOJ is leaning toward a 25bp rate hike at its 18–19 December meeting, which would lift Japan’s policy rate to 0.75%, the highest since 1995. Officials reportedly believe markets correctly interpreted Governor Ueda’s recent comments as a strong hint toward tightening and may signal openness to further cautious hikes if conditions allow.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India delivered a 25bp rate cut despite rupee weakness and resilient domestic growth. The cut was expected, but the expectations was by no means unanimous given improved data recently.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) %
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) %
• Shanghai
  Composite %
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) %

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 5/12/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

China’s crackdown on local-government borrowing is pushing even wealthy provinces back into the shadow-banking market, where state-run entities are taking on high-cost loans to plug funding gaps.

Bloomberg carried the info:

• Since September, local-government investment arms and financing platforms in regions have borrowed billions of dollars from trust companies and leasing firms at 8%+ rates, more than triple bond-market funding costs.
• The shift reflects Beijing’s tighter controls on LGFV borrowing, which have restricted access to regular bank loans and bond issuance, contributing to a slump in infrastructure investment.
• Analysts say firms are resorting to costly refinancing as interest payments rise and project expenses come due in Q4, with bond issuance by financing vehicles at its lowest since 2020.

Shadow-banking activity is difficult to track, but Fitch estimates LGFV debt above ¥60 trillion, with roughly 10% financed through non-standard channels, the opaque segment now seeing renewed growth. The resurgence complicates Beijing’s campaign to resolve hidden debt, despite regulators’ claims of progress: the number of financing platforms and their outstanding operational debt have fallen sharply since early 2023. Officials continue to pledge “iron discipline” to prevent new off-balance-sheet borrowing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s household spending slumped sharply in October, underscoring persistent weakness in consumer demand and challenging the view that wage gains are feeding through to consumption.

All Household Spending fell 3.0% y/y,

• badly missing expectations for a 1.0% rise
• prior +1.8%

While month-on-month spending dropped 3.5%

• far below the forecast 0.7% increase
• prior -0.7%

The declines reverse September’s modest gain y/y and highlight the drag from higher living costs and cautious consumer behaviour ahead of year-end.

The data arrives at a sensitive moment for the Bank of Japan as it weighs a December rate hike. While wage momentum and inflation dynamics have strengthened, today’s figures underline the fragility of household demand — a potential complication for policymakers seeking confirmation of sustainable, demand-led inflation.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. Trade Representative Greer said Washington aims to maintain a stable but recalibrated relationship with China, stressing that bilateral trade must become more balanced, and likely smaller, over time. Greer noted the U.S. goods trade deficit with China has already fallen by about 25%, calling the shift “the right direction.”

Greer also flagged ongoing issues within the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), saying some adjustments have already been made to address emerging challenges. A key concern, he said, is ensuring that Mexico and Canada do not become transshipment hubs for Chinese, Vietnamese or Indonesian exports seeking to bypass U.S. trade restrictions.

The remarks highlight the Trump administration’s continued focus on reshaping supply chains, tightening enforcement of trade rules, and preventing circumvention of tariffs through North American partners.

—

Greer’s comments reinforce a continued U.S. shift toward managed trade and tighter enforcement across North America. A push for a smaller China trade footprint adds to structural decoupling pressures, with implications for supply-chain diversification and Asia FX sensitivities. Monitoring of transshipment risks through Mexico and Canada suggests further compliance scrutiny and potential tariff escalations.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The ‘will they or won’t they?’ December Bank of Japan rate hike question continues to dominate Japanese financial markets. Mix in a little bit of fiscal sustainability concern to make it more interesting too.

On that fiscal sustainability question you’d never know it given the very, very successful 30-year JGB auction yesterday:

• Japan’s 30-yr JGB sale draws highest demand since 2019 as bid-cover surges

Of course, much of the success is down to investors wanting to lock in the highest rate they’ve seen in years. Still, they are obviously not worried about the ability of the Japanese government to pay out on the bonds for the next 3 decades!

On the data agenda today, the household spending result will giver further information on the prospect of a BoJ December (19) rate hike. Solid data will favour a hike and vice versa.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• US initial jobless claims 191K versus 220K estimate
• Jobs survey from Revelio Labs sees 9K US job losses in November
• Freddie Mac: The 30 year mortgage rate falls to 6.19% from 6.23% last week
• The Atlanta Fed GDP tracker edges lower but it still shouldn’t be trusted
• US September factory orders +0.2% vs +0.5% expected
• Chicago Fed unemployment tracker 4.44% vs 4.46% prior
• US November Challenger layoffs 71.321k vs 153.074k prior

Markets:

• WTI crude oil 74-cents to $59.69
• US 10-year yields up 4.8 bps to 4.11%
• Gold up $2 to $4207
• S&P 500 flat at 6850.
• Bitcoin down 1.5%
• AUD leads, CHF lags

it was tough to find any real drama in the market today though it was certainly not dull. The initial jobless claims number tumbled, sending a contrasting view to some of the other employment numbers recently, including today. The obvious culprit was the US holiday and that likely skewed the picture so the data was quickly discounted after some USD volatility.

The dollar fell early in the day but bottomed into the London fix and steadily climbed from there. It was helped along by rising yields that were potentially driven by more talk that Hassett will be the Fed chairman pick. The euro and Swiss franc were particularly soft as the day wore on, though the moves were limited to 40 pips on the day.

Oil saw some life despite yesterday’s bearish supply data and a Saudi price cut. One driver was a report saying that a damaged terminal is limiting Kazakhstan’s oil output and another survey highlighting OPEC under-production of quotas. That led to a $1 intraday rally in crude.

Stock markets were choppy but in a tighter range. As the day winds down, the S&P 500 is trading close to flat having trade around 20 points on either side of unchanged. META was a big winner after scaling back investment plans in VR and the Metaverse.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

A Trump official cited by Bloomberg said the President plans to take more stakes in mining companies.

That’s good news if you’re on the right side of the picking of winners and losers by the government.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Freddie Mac says that the 30 year average mortgage rate fell to 6.19% from 6.23% last week.

The recent cycle lows going back to October 2022 is at 6.09%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major European indices are all closing higher on the day with the gains led by the Spain’s Ibex and Germans DAX indices. A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX +0.85%
• France’s CAC, +0.43%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.19%
• Spain’s Ibex, +0.97%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.32%

As London/European traders head for the exits, the major US stock indices are mixed/little changed.

• Dow industrial average -10.86 points or -0.03% at 47870.
• S&P index +7.49 points or 0.11% and 6857.32.
• The NASDAQ index +45.52 points or 0.19% at 23497.

Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher after the stronger-than-expected initial jobless claims data (lowest level since 2022):

• 2 year yield 3.526%, +4.1 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.674%, +5.0 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.100%, +4.2 basis points.
• 30 year yield 4.755%, +3.1 basis points.

Although yields are higher and the employment status remains solid, the Fed is still expected to cut rates by 25 basis points when they meet next Wednesday.

Looking at other markets:

• Crude oil is up $0.95 or 1.61% at $59.90
• Gold is up $13 or 0.31% at $4215.46
• Silver is down $1.34 or -2.28% at $57.12.
• Bitcoin is down $1000 or -1.10% and $92,440

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Atlanta FedGDPNow growth is referred Q3 dipped to 3.8% from 3.9% previously. In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent percent on December 4, down from 3.9 percent on December 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the Institute for Supply Management, decreases in the nowcasts of real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth from 3.2 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, to 3.1 percent and 3.0 percent, were partially offset by an increase in the nowcast in the contribution of net exports to GDP growth from 0.80 percentage points to 0.85 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update will be no later than Friday, December 5. The first model nowcast for fourth-quarter GDP growth will not occur before Tuesday, December 23.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The proliferation of the GDPNow report has turned into a real test of economists.

It’s a semi-useful indicator but really only in the couple weeks before the advance US release, when much of the data has been released. Instead, people quote it throughout the quarter at times when it’s based on vague assumptions and models that are volatile.

Moreover, the US government shutdown rendered the current version virtually obsolete and that won’t improve until we catch up on the data in Q1.

Now I understand why politicians love to quote this number when it’s running hot like it is now, but if you’re in markets, you need to know better. If the Atlanta Fed was serious, it would have stopped publishing this report and pulled its estimates.

All that said, the latest number is down to 3.8% from 3.9%.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.