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Food stamps were cut this week and it looks like air travel is next. Sources cited by Reuters say the Federal Aviation Administration is working to hammer out details of flight cuts that will start tomorrow.

That’s going to make a different subset of voters angry and might even get politicians to start working together.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 4.00% in November monetary policy meeting
• BOE governor Bailey: We are likely to continue gradual downward path on the bank rate
• China reportedly made purchases of two cargoes of US wheat for December shipment
• ECB’s de Guindos: Inflation news is positive
• US October Challenger layoffs 153.074k vs 54.064k prior
• Eurozone September retail sales -0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• Germany September industrial production +1.3% vs +3.0% m/m expected
• Germany October construction PMI 42.8 vs 46.2 prior
• UK October construction PMI 44.1 vs 46.7 expected

Markets:

• EUR and JPY lead, NZD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 1.9 bps to 4.137%
• Gold up 0.6% to $4,008.34
• WTI crude oil up 0.7% to $60.03
• Bitcoin down 1.1% to $102,572

The main event on the session was the BOE policy decision and the central bank held the bank rate steady at 4.00% as expected, though the voting margin was as tight as it could be in siding with a decision to hold. The bank rate vote was 5-4 in favour of keeping rates steady, with dissents coming from Breeden, Ramsden, Dhingra, and Taylor in wanting a 25 bps rate cut.

GBP/USD fell slightly from 1.3090 to 1.3060 after the decision but there wasn’t anything overly dovish, with the pair now clawing back losses to 1.3085 currently as Bailey speaks.

Besides that, there wasn’t too much in it during the session. US Challenger job cuts continue to reflect heavy layoffs for the year, reaffirming a softening labour market picture. That’s not seeing much of a market reaction though as the risk mood keeps a bit more steadier after the rebound in Wall Street yesterday.

US futures are a little higher while Treasury yields are not following up on the break higher yesterday, with 10-year yields down 1.9 bps to 4.137% for now.

That’s keeping broader markets in check with the dollar holding slightly lower at the margin today. EUR/USD is up 0.3% to 1.1525 with USD/JPY down 0.3% to 153.60 at the moment. Meanwhile, gold is seeing dip buyers start to show some appetite again in a push back above $4,000 and breaking back above key near-term levels here.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior +0.1%; revised to -0.1%

That’s a miss on estimates with the drop mostly coming from a decline in sales for non-food products (-0.2%). Meanwhile, food sales were stable on the month. This is a bit of a lagging release, so it won’t change the ECB outlook whatsoever.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The data is released earlier than expected by the source. US-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October this year, which is up a whopping 175% from the 55,597 cuts announced in October 2024. Even compared to September, the number of layoffs is up a staggering 183% last month. And historically for October, this is the highest one since October 2003.

“October’s pace of job cutting was much higher than average for the month. Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes. Those laid off now are finding it harder to quickly secure new roles, which could further loosen the labor market.”

Looking at the details,

More to come..

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior 46.2

That’s a bit of a bummer as construction activity declines at its fastest pace in over five years in October. There were steep reductions in housing and civil engineering
activity, as firms cited a lack of new work to replace completed projects. S&P Global notes that:

“UK construction companies reported another
challenging month in October as the prolonged weakening
of order books so far in 2025 resulted in the fastest
decline in business activity for over five years. Civil
engineering and residential activity saw the fastest rates
of contraction, while commercial building showed some
resilience.

“Reduced workloads were again widely attributed to risk
aversion and delayed decision-making among clients,
which contributed to a slower-than-expected release of
new projects. Subdued demand in the wake of heightened
political and economic uncertainty also led to the
steepest drop in input buying since May 2020.

“Meanwhile, some positive signals for the construction
sector in October included a slowdown in cost inflation to
its lowest for one year, rising subcontractor availability,
and a sustained improvement in supplier performance.

“Looking ahead, business activity expectations for the
coming 12 months remained much weaker than the
long-run survey average, largely due to worries about
fragile investment sentiment and weak sales pipelines.
However, overall optimism levels edged up to the highest
since July as the prospect of lower borrowing costs
reportedly helped to boost demand projections.”

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior 46.2

Ouch. German construction activity slumps further in October, falling at its quickest pace in seven months. Of note, housing activity remains the weakest by some margin with a further decline in commercial building while civil engineering activity also returned to contraction on the month. HCOB notes that:

“This is a heavy blow for the construction sector, which was already under pressure. Across the sector as a whole, activity
dropped in October at the fastest rate since March this year. The most striking result was the decline in civil engineering,
where we had seen moderate growth over the previous two months. The situation in residential construction is even more
dramatic, with the deep recession worsening further. Commercial construction also took a hit, though the drop was less
forceful than the decline in housing activity. Overall, the numbers reflect a climate of uncertainty, high building costs, and
relatively high long-term interest rates, which have hovered well above the levels of the previous decade for the past two
years.

“The slump in civil engineering activity shows that the large-scale infrastructure investments the government has already
started are clearly subject to bigger fluctuations. We expect growth in this sector to stabilize over the course of next year,
once a broader range of public projects gets approved and rolled out.

“In residential construction, activity is falling faster than at any other point this year. It’s pretty clear that the so-called
“building turbo” from the federal government – which mainly aims to ease zoning regulations and speed up approval
processes – isn’t working at all. It looks like we’ll need additional measures, like direct subsidies and more social housing, to
really tackle the housing shortage.

“Incoming orders are shrinking a bit less than the month before, but they still signal that the construction sector isn’t heading
for a turnaround just yet. Confidence in higher construction activity a year from now remains low, and demand for
subcontractors has dropped sharply. On the bright side, cost inflation has come down significantly and is now well below the
long-term average. That could help improve profitability for construction firms.”

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior -4.3%; revised to -3.7%

That’s a miss on estimates with German industrial output only rebounding mildly after the sharp drop in August. The three-month comparison shows that overall output declined by 0.8% in Q3 as compared to Q2. As for September itself, the rebound comes from the automotive industry – which saw a very sharp decline in the month before. Output here rose by 12.3% on the month as compared to the 16.7% decline in August, owing to factory holidays and production changeovers.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

After the Tuesday drop, gold is seen picking itself back up again in the past few sessions as it nudges back to around $3,980-90 levels. That being said, the price momentum seems to be falling short of contesting the $4,000 mark. So, what gives?

Looking at the near-term chart, we can see that the key hourly moving averages are still being very much respected for now. Sellers are holding the line, quite literally, and that’s keeping any further rebound in gold in check for now.

The confluence of the 100 (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages is seen around $3,989-94 and that is holding price action from extending higher for now. Keep below that and sellers will continue to hold near-term control but break above the key levels as well as the $4,000 mark, then buyers will seize back the near-term bias in their favour.

In the bigger picture, one key development to watch out for this week is the bond market. 10-year Treasury yields jumped up yesterday to a one-month high around 4.16% and that could yet keep the dollar in a better spot while also weighing on gold sentiment if yields continue to climb towards the 100-day moving average of 4.21%.

It is evidently clear that the bond market is starting to do its own thing now, with somewhat better US private economic data perhaps having the potential to influence the Fed to not cut rates in December. For the time being, traders are still pricing in ~61% odds of a 25 bps rate cut but it definitely doesn’t feel like a given.

So, any shifts to that pricing will also play a key role in impacting gold sentiment in the weeks ahead. That before we start to consider the more bullish seasonal period between December to January for the precious metal.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It is being reported that China has made purchases of two cargoes for their December shipment, totaling to about 120,000 tons of US wheat. One of the cargo is US soft white wheat with the other being spring wheat.

These will mark the first purchases of US wheat by China since October last year. So, it’s definitely a signal that Beijing is at least trying to play nice in the month(s) just after the latest “deal”. In time, don’t be surprised if China conveniently forgets that they have to keep up such commitments. We’ve seen this story play out one too many times.

In any case, China’s grain imports have slumped heavily in the past few years as domestic production has been on the rise. For some context, China was arguably the biggest grains importer with around 60 million tons purchased in 2021-22. That figure fell to just 20 million tons during the period of last year.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• China bans foreign AI chips in state-funded data centres to boost domestic industry
• China prioritises yuan stability over exports as PBOC defends currency
• Annual ECB Conference on Money Markets begins in Frankfurt today, and continues tomorrow
• Japan, U.S. plan joint rare earth mining near Minamitori Island
• Goldman Sachs says Supreme Court likely to curb presidential tariff powers under IEEPA
• Japan to revamp foreign investment law, narrow IT reviews, and close loopholes
• Snap shares rose on $400mn Perplexity AI deal and new AR spin-off
• ICYMI – Morgan Stanley lifts 2026 oil forecast to $60 after OPEC+ output pause
• Toyota, Honda, invest billions to make India new car production hub. Turb away from China.
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0865 (vs. estimate at 7.1222)
• Wall Street Journal: “Trump Expresses Reservations Over Strikes in Venezuela to Top Aides”
• Japan junior govmnt partner says early BoJ rate hike would send wrong signal to businesses
• Japan S&P Global Services PMI Final for October 2025 53.1, down from September’s 53.3
• Australian September trade balance comes a touch under expected at +3938mn (4000 expected)
• Axios: Nvidia’s Jensen Huang warns U.S. could lose AI race to China
• Trump is scheduled to make an announcement on Thursday, November 6, 2025 at 1600 GMT
• Yen recovery to ¥147 forecast on BoJ rate hike prospects – eases intervention pressure
• Japanese real wages in September fell 1.4% y/y, down for the ninth month in a row
• ICYMI – OpenAI asks U.S. for loan guarantees to fund $1 trillion AI expansion
• TD Securities expects narrow BoE rate cut, warns sterling to stay weak
• RBNZ’s Hawkesby says rising joblessness within expectations, flags trade risks
• The slashing of flight numbers in the US will include the 30 busiest airports
• BoC Macklem says monetary policy of little use tackling structural changes from US tariffs
• US Transport Secretary has warned that the air system is becoming riskier due to shut down
• JP Morgan CEO Dimon warns markets face downside risk, urges Fed independence
• US major indices rebound some of the losses from yesterday
• US flight chaos worsens – further flights will be cut as shut down continues
• NVIDEA CEO Huang says China will will win the AI race against the US
• investingLive Americas market news wrap: Some rare US data (and it was strong)

It was a day of news and data with limited immediate market impact.

In the U.S., travel and growth could take a hit after the government said it will slash flight numbers from Friday due to the shutdown. Transport Secretary Duffy warned the air system is becoming riskier as a result, with air traffic to be cut by 10%, affecting the 30 busiest airports and more.

In New Zealand, Reserve Bank Governor Christian Hawkesby said the rise in unemployment was broadly in line with expectations, reflecting where the economy sits in the current cycle. Speaking to lawmakers after the Financial Stability Report, he acknowledged conditions were “hard out there” but stressed the financial system remains resilient, even under severe stress scenarios.

Get ready for a new entrant in the “too-big-to-fail” club: OpenAI is seeking U.S. government loan guarantees to help fund more than $1 trillion in AI infrastructure projects. CFO Sarah Friar said federal backing would lower borrowing costs and attract more investors.

Also in AI, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang warned the U.S. risks losing the technology race to China, citing Beijing’s subsidies and unified policies versus America’s fragmented regulations. “China is going to win the AI race,” he told the FT, as relayed by Axios.

From Japan, real wages fell 1.4% y/y in September — the ninth straight decline — highlighting the challenge for the BoJ, though base pay for regular workers rose 2.2%. The data likely keepd the central bank on its only slow and gradual tightening path. Final PMI figures showed the services index at 53.1, maintaining growth for a seventh month, while the composite PMI edged up to 51.5 as services offset weaker factory output.

Japan Innovation Party (the LDP’s junior coalition partner in government) co-leader Hidetaka Fujita warned that an early BoJ rate hike could send mixed signals to businesses and ruled out tax increases to fund the government’s front-loaded defence spending.

The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump has expressed hesitation about ordering military action to oust Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, fearing strikes might fail to force him out.

In China, the Shanghai Composite climbed back above 4,000, trimming its one-week decline. The CSI Semiconductor Index jumped over 3% after Reuters reported Beijing has banned foreign AI chips from state-funded data centres, hitting Nvidia, AMD and Intel while boosting domestic players like Huawei. The move underscores China’s drive for AI chip self-sufficiency amid ongoing U.S. export curbs.

Elsewhere, Asia-Pac equities generally traded higher, extending Wall Street’s rebound, while major FX was subdued. The USD softened slightly as the JPY, EUR and GBP gained; AUD, NZD and CAD under-performed. Gold edged toward US $4,000, though without testing the level.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) +1.5%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) +1.64%
• Shanghai
  Composite +0.88%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) +0.24%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ICYMI – Reuters reports that China has ordered all state-funded data centres to use only domestically made AI chips, in a move likely to hit U.S. chipmakers including Nvidia, AMD, and Intel. The directive, issued in recent weeks, requires projects under 30% completion to remove or cancel purchases of foreign chips, while more advanced projects will be reviewed individually.

The policy marks one of Beijing’s most assertive steps yet to eliminate foreign technology from critical infrastructure and accelerate AI chip self-sufficiency, giving local producers such as Huawei a major boost.

The move comes amid easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, though chip technology remains a flashpoint. Nvidia, which once held 95% of China’s AI chip market, has seen its share fall to zero following U.S. export restrictions.

Analysts say the decision could reshape China’s $100 billion data centre sector and deepen the divide between U.S. and Chinese AI capabilities, as domestic firms expand under tighter state protection.

—

Beijing’s latest move intensifies U.S.–China tech decoupling, threatening chipmakers’ China revenue while accelerating domestic AI development. The ban signals long-term support for local semiconductor firms like Huawei and Cambricon.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs said the U.S. Supreme Court appears increasingly likely to rule against the administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, following oral arguments that revealed skepticism among several justices about the president’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

ICYMI from earlier:

• The market is telling you how it sees arguments at the Supreme Court today

Back to GS.

In a note to clients, Goldman said prediction markets now assign roughly a 10 percentage point lower probability that the Court will uphold the tariffs. A decision is expected between December 2025 and January 2026.

If the Court strikes down the tariffs, Goldman expects it could take several months for the government to refund an estimated $115–145 billion in duties collected by that time. However, the bank added that the administration would likely turn to alternative legal authorities to reimpose similar tariffs, meaning the overall trade impact would remain limited.

Any reductions in tariffs, Goldman said, would probably apply only to smaller trading partners, with little change expected for major economies such as China or the EU.

—

Goldman’s view suggests tariff uncertainty may ease only marginally even if the Court rules against the administration, as officials could reimpose similar measures through other channels. Refund processing and temporary tariff gaps may cause short-term market noise.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.