Articles

There have been no trades on S&P 500 futures, Nasdaq 100 futures since 0344 GMT according to LSEG data. Trading halts began before that though.

CME’s website reports that CME Globex futures & options markets halted due to a technical issue.

Apparebntly it’s a cooling issue at Cyrusone data centres.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s economy is poised to show a solid pick-up in momentum through the September quarter, according to Westpac, which expects next week’s National Accounts (due on December 3) to confirm a stronger and more synchronised recovery across key parts of the economy.

The bank is forecasting Q3 GDP growth of 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, lifting annual growth to 2.3%, a touch above the Reserve Bank’s newly updated 2.0% trend estimate. Westpac says its numbers are broadly aligned with its real-time Westpac-Now model, which has been signalling firming underlying momentum heading into year-end.

A standout feature of the expected result is the strength in domestic demand, which Westpac believes surged 1.5% in Q3, the strongest quarterly rise since early 2012. The bank says the upswing is becoming increasingly broad-based, with multiple sectors contributing rather than activity relying on isolated pockets of strength.

Westpac cautions that headline growth should moderate over the next few quarters as unusually large capital-expenditure items, notably aircraft purchases, roll off. Even so, stripping out those one-offs leaves underlying growth at a healthy 0.6% for the quarter, pointing to resilience beneath the surface.

The bank also expects productivity to show a meaningful rebound, rising 0.9% over the year. That, in turn, would help slow nominal unit labour cost growth to around 2.5% on a six-month annualised basis — a development Westpac says would be “encouraging” for the Reserve Bank as it weighs the inflation outlook.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

S&P Global has downgraded China Vanke to CCC- from CCC, warning that the developer’s plan to seek maturity extensions on its onshore debt indicates heightened liquidity stress. The rating has been placed on CreditWatch Negative, signalling further cuts are possible.

The move follows the collapse in Vanke’s yuan bonds — including the 2027 note that plunged to 31/100 and triggered trading halts — underscoring how the once-blue-chip developer has been pulled deeper into China’s property-sector crisis. S&P said the potential extension is tantamount to distress and reflects a “material likelihood of default” unless significant support emerges.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs economists warn that worsening political frictions between Japan and China could deliver a measurable drag on Japan’s economy by hitting tourism flows and demand for consumer goods. The bank estimates that a meaningful decline in visitors from mainland China and Hong Kong—Japan’s most valuable inbound tourism segment—could shave around 0.2 percentage point off GDP growth.

The projection is based partly on the 2016–2017 episode when China sharply curtailed tourism to South Korea during the Thaad missile-defense dispute, demonstrating how political retaliation can spill into consumer behaviour. Goldman’s Tomohiro Ota and Yuriko Tanaka suggest that a scenario involving a 50% drop in Chinese and Hong Kong tourists would deal a similar blow to Japan today.

Some of the loss would likely be cushioned: tourists from other markets may partially fill the gap, and domestic travel remains strong. After such offsets, Goldman estimates the net drag would be closer to 0.1 percentage point, but still meaningful given Japan’s already modest growth trajectory.

The analysis underscores the sensitivity of Japan’s recovery to diplomatic dynamics with China—especially because tourism has become a key post-pandemic economic driver.

—

I know Trump is motivated by getting a deal with China, but it was probably advice that’ll help Japan’s economy:

• WSJ: Trump urged Japan’s Takaichi to soften tone on Taiwan in private call

—

Not to mention the ability China has to sell the **** out of Japan assets.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China Vanke’s onshore bonds tumbled to fresh record lows on Friday, deepening concerns over the health of one of the country’s last remaining investment-grade property developers. The selloff came after Vanke sought to delay repayment on an onshore bond for the first time, a major red flag for a company long considered one of the sector’s most stable names.

Vanke’s 2027 yuan bond collapsed 22.5% at the open to just 31 yuan per 100 yuan of par, triggering an automatic trading halt on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Trading in three other onshore bonds was also suspended as prices plunged.

The latest stress marks a dramatic reversal for Vanke, once viewed as a “national champion” among Chinese developers. For nearly two decades, it operated with comparatively conservative leverage, strong sales, and implicit state support through its ties to Shenzhen’s state-owned entities. But China’s prolonged property downturn, intensified by the government’s “three red lines” deleveraging campaign, has crushed liquidity across the sector. Falling home prices, stalled projects, and weak presales have sharply eroded cash flow, leaving even top-tier names under strain.

Vanke’s troubles escalated through 2024–25 as its sales dropped sharply, offshore bonds traded at distressed levels, and investors questioned its ability to refinance maturing debt. Its request this week to extend an onshore repayment signals that liquidity conditions have tightened further, pulling the company closer to the fate of peers like Evergrande, Country Garden, and Greenland, who all spiralled into default.

The bond-market reaction underscores how fragile confidence has become — and how even China’s “safe” developers are no longer insulated from the sector’s deepening credit stress.

—

Vanke’s bond collapse is likely to pressure wider China HY property credit, weigh on CNH sentiment, and increase calls for stronger state intervention to stabilise funding for developers.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan October retail sales +1.7% y/y (expected +0.8%)

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan October industrial production (preliminary) for October 2025.

+1.7% y/y

• expected +0.8%, prior +0.2%

+1.4% m/m

• expected -0.6%, prior +2.6%

Japan’s industrial sector delivered a firmer-than-expected performance in October, with factory output rising 1.4% from the previous month, according to government data released on Friday.

Despite the upside surprise, manufacturers remain cautious about the near-term outlook. A survey by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed firms expect output to fall 1.2% in November, a slightly deeper projected drop than last month’s forecast of –0.9%. Producers also anticipate a further 2.0% decline in December, suggesting the recovery may be brief as global demand remains uneven and supply-chain pressures linger.

The data highlight the mixed momentum in Japan’s factories: a stronger-than-expected October print, followed by expectations of renewed contraction heading into year-end.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Awful news from the US today:

• One of the two National Guard members shot in Washington on Wednesday has died
• The other is still fighting for his life.

Trump with the news.

—

National Guard member Sarah Beckstrom has died of her injuries. Terrible, terrible news. Condolences to family and friends.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Jobs data from Japan for October 2025, the labour market there remains tight.

Unemployment Rate 2.6%

• expected 2.5%, prior 2.6%

Jobs / Applicants Ratio 1.18

• expected
  1.2, prior 1.2

Most focus is on the CPI data, from the Tokyo area for November.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tokyo area November inflation data, the core measures higher than headline.

Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov) 2.7%

• expected 2.7%, prior 2.8%

Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) (Nov) 2.8% … higher than expected and the same as in October

• expected 2.7%, prior 2.8%

Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) (Nov) 2.8%, ditto, higher than expected and the same as in October

• expected 2.7%, prior 2.8%

The data shows inflation still simmering away well above the 2% BoJ target. The Bank of Japan next meet on December 18-19 and expectations are edging towards a right hike but its not a done deal yet by any means.

• BOJ’s Noguchi: Further yen declines could impact underlying inflation
• BOJ’s Noguchi: Japan making steady progress in meeting inflation target
• Recap – BoJ’s Noguchi tempers December hike bets, urges measured, step-by-step tightening
• investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD up (high CPI), NZD up (rate cut), JPY up (BoJ

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Data from South Korea show a mixed picture: industrial output slumped sharply in October even as retail sales rose and service-sector output held up. According to the national statistics office,

• industrial production in October fell 8.1% year-on-year and 4.0% month-on-month (seasonally adjusted).
• By contrast, retail sales rose 3.5% month-on-month,
• while service-sector output slipped modestly by 0.6% month-on-month.

That weak industrial performance follows a rebound in September, when overall production rose 1.0% month-on-month (and 6.7% y/y), driven by a 1.8% increase in services — although retail sales dipped 0.1% in September. The divergence suggests private consumption and services remain more resilient than manufacturing, which may be weighed down by global demand softness or supply-chain headwinds.

—

The sharp drop in industrial output may weigh on export-linked assets and Korean equities, while softer manufacturing signals could dampen global supply-chain demand; stable retail and services may cushion domestic consumption risks.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Belgium’s prime minister has warned that the European Union’s push to tap frozen Russian state assets for Ukraine risks undermining future peace efforts, according to the Financial Times.

In brief:

• PM Bart De Wever raised the concern in a letter to Commission chief von der Leyen.

• EU leaders failed last month to get Belgium’s backing for a €140bn loan scheme for Kyiv.

• Much of the Russian money is held in Belgium, giving Brussels significant leverage.

• The Commission will propose new legal text to address Belgian concerns this week.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.