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• Prior was -3832K
• Gasoline +8977K vs +3565K exp
• Distillates -29K vs +512K exp

That’s a mammoth gasoline build on top of another huge one last week. It will be tough to keep oil prices up with that much product in the system.

Private oil inventories released late yesterday:

• Crude +5270K
• Gasoline +8230K
• Distillates +4340K

Given the private survey, the big build in the official numbers isn’t a huge surprise .That said, earlier oil gains have faded with WTI at $61.69 from a high of $62.10.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs was potentially due today but four other decisions were rendered, and no word on tariffs. No other decision days have been announced for this week.

The IEEPA is a 1977 law that gives the President broad powers to regulate commerce after declaring a national emergency. Historically, it’s been the “sanctions button”—used to freeze assets of terrorists or rogue states. But the Trump administration dusted it off to impose sweeping tariffs, effectively using it as a trade weapon.

The legal battle (specifically cases like Trump v. V.O.S. Selections) boils down to one critical question: Does the power to “regulate” imports include the power to tax them?

Importers argue that “regulating” isn’t “taxing.” They say if Congress wanted the President to levy tariffs unilaterally, they would have said so. The government argues the statute is broad enough to cover it.

Why this matters for markets

If the Supreme Court rules against the government, the implications are staggering.

We are talking about potential refunds on tariffs collected under IEEPA. Estimates put this north of $150 billion. If importers (think big retail, tech, autos) get that cash back, it’s a massive injection of liquidity into corporate balance sheets.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Eyes will be on the US Supreme Court at 10 am ET (1500 GMT) as it delivers another decision.

We don’t know whether today’s decision will be on tariffs or something else. The Supreme Court doesn’t schedule its decisions, it only announces that a decision on one of the cases before it will be delivered today. We went through the same thing on Friday and tariff anticipation built up but the ultimate decision was on criminal law.

Betting sites saw a surge in the odds that tariffs will be struck down after oral arguments in November. A majority of Justices sounded skeptical that Congressional powers of taxation were being respected, or that the rule of law was being followed. If they’re struck down, the reasoning and remedy will be critical.

If the reasoning leans towards it being a ‘major questions’ problem, the other tariff remedies could also be under threat. If it’s more technical, then it clears the way for Trump to use other tariff powers to reconstitute tariffs, something that administration officials have pledged.

I looked at how the administration could pivot and use different tariff powers here.

The remedy is also a thorny issue. If the Supreme Court rules that tariffs must be refunded, then it would be a windfall for importers and a big hit to the US government’s finances. it’s nowhere near the ‘trillions’ that Trump often touts but the refunds would amount to around $130-$150 billion.

Last week, I wrote about the stocks that could be winners and losers on the tariff decision.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +2.7%
• PPI M/M +0.2% vs 0.2% expected
• Prior +0.3%
• Core PPI Y/Y +3.0% vs +2.7% expected
• Prior +2.6%
• Core PPI M/M +0.0% vs +0.2% expected
• Prior +0.1%

The BLS notes that the November increase in prices for final demand can be traced to a 0.9-percent advance in the index
for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services were unchanged.

As a reminder, this is November data and besides being old news at this point, it could have the same shutdown related issues of the November CPI. I don’t expect the market to focus too much on the data because we already got the more important and more timely December CPI yesterday.

The market is pricing 54 bps of easing by year and that’s unlikely to change much with today’s data. The recent Fedspeak has shown zero interest for a rate cut in January even though the market still assigns it a 9% probability. The Fed projected just one cut in 2026 at the last policy meeting and we will need more labour market deterioration or bigger than expected fall in inflation to see them going faster on rate cuts.

We’ve seen minimal reaction to the data as expected.

WHAT THE US PPI MEASURES?

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is an economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. In simpler terms, it tracks inflation from the perspective of the seller/business rather than the consumer like the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 0.0% (revised to -0.1%)

Details:

• Ex-autos +0.5% vs +0.4% expected
• Prior ex autos +0.4% (revised to +0.2%)
• Ex autos and gas +0.4% vs +0.5% prior (revised to +0.4%)
• Control group +0.4% vs +0.4% expected
• Prior control +0.8% (revised to +0.6%)
• Retail sales y/y % vs +3.47% prior

This is generally in-line on the headline but the overall report is a tad soft because of the revisions.

The US retail sales report is one of the market’s cleanest reads on the health of the American consumer, and by extension the broader economy. Released monthly by the Census Bureau, it tracks the dollar value of sales across a wide range of retailers, from autos and gas stations to restaurants and online stores. Because consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of US GDP, the report carries real weight for growth expectations and interest-rate pricing.

Markets tend to focus on the “control group,” which strips out autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services. That subset feeds directly into GDP calculations and often matters more than the headline. Strong retail sales suggest resilient demand, firmer pricing power, and less urgency for rate cuts. Weak numbers raise questions about consumer fatigue, credit stress, and the durability of the expansion.

It’s a noisy report, prone to revisions and seasonal quirks, but when trends persist, markets listen.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Japanese Yen rebounds amid barrage of verbal intervention and “sell the fact” trade
• Japan’s finance minister offers up an oddly specific comment
• Tokyo officials intensify verbal intervention on the Japanese yen
• Nippon Ishin party leader says Takaichi is to call snap election at start of Diet session
• Trump says that the US needs Greenland for the purpose of national security
• China customs authorities say Nvidia’s H200 chips are not permitted – report
• Tariffs? What tariffs? China posts record-breaking trade surplus in 2025

Markets:

• JPY leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures down 0.5%
• US 10-year yields down 1.9 bps to 4.151%
• Gold up 1.0% to $4,634.19
• WTI crude oil up 1.1% to $61.88
• Bitcoin up 0.7% to $94,750

The Japanese yen was the main focus on the session after dropping in Asia, with USD/JPY ramping up above 159.00 to its highest since July 2024 at one point.

All that before some verbal intervention from Tokyo officials, mostly as you would expect. However, included in there was an oddly specific comment by Japan finance minister Katayama. He singled out the yen decline last Friday as being not in line with fundamentals, triggering some selling in USD/JPY amid rising intervention risks.

That halted the yen rout with the pair seeing some volatile price action but ultimately now being lower by 0.3% to 158.56 with the drop earlier even touching 158.15 on the session. That as Japan prime minister Takaichi also confirms that she will be dissolving the parliament’s lower house later this month and will call for a snap election in February.

As for other major currencies, there wasn’t anything exciting with the dollar keeping more tepid ahead of more US data later in the day.

The other notable headline on the session was that China has banned Nvidia’s H200 AI chips from entering the country, barring special circumstances. That’s keeping risk trades on edge alongside Trump threatening to claim Greenland on the pretext of “national security”.

US futures are sitting lower across the board with tech shares leading declines. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% with Nasdaq futures down 0.7% currently.

Meanwhile, European equities were off to a decent start with major benchmark indices in France, Spain, and the UK all posting fresh record highs at the open. However, the momentum is slowly fizzling out now with the DAX even being down 0.4% as risk trades err on the side of caution.

The other big movers on the day are none other than precious metals once again. After catching a bid in Asia, gold and silver are holding on to gains for the most part in European morning trade. Gold is up 1.0% to $4,634 while silver is up near 5% to $91.30 on a break of the $90 mark today. The hot streak continues. 🔥

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It looks like geopolitics is back on the menu as we look to the day ahead. From the man himself:

“The United States needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security. It is vital for the Golden Dome that we are building. NATO should be leading the way for us to get it. IF WE DON’T, RUSSIA OR CHINA WILL, AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! Militarily, without the vast power of the United States, much of which I built during my first term, and am now bringing to a new and even higher level, NATO would not be an effective force or deterrent – Not even close! They know that, and so do I. NATO becomes far more formidable and effective with Greenland in the hands of the UNITED STATES. Anything less than that is unacceptable. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT”

What a time to be alive when world leaders start talking about countries and territories ever so trivially, as though like a kid talking about toys.

With Nvidia also in the microscope as China bans its H200 chips, it’s going to be a bumpy start for US stocks later at the open. S&P 500 futures are already down 0.4% on the day now with Nasdaq futures down 0.6% and Dow futures down 0.3%.

Circling back to geopolitics, it’s not just Greenland in the picture at the moment. Trump also has his eyes on Iran and that is also drawing plenty of flak from other big nations.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Japan’s Nippon Ishin party leader Yoshimura is out confirming that Takaichi will dissolve the lower house of parliament and call for a snap election. From before: Japan PM Takaichi reportedly states intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house

Yoshimura adds that Takaichi will announce more details on that on Monday, 19 January.

As mentioned in the linked post, the move here is mostly to shore up support and increase the number of ruling coalition seats while her support ratings remain high. All that of course before opposition lawmakers start piling on the questions on her policy setting when the Diet session begins. And the ongoing feud between Japan and China won’t make things easy for her, as it offers up free ammunition for other lawmakers to question her leadership.

The next ordinary Diet session will take place on 23 January and it would mark the first time since then that the lower house is dissolved at the very start of the calendar year.

The question now then becomes when will the snap election be called? The likely dates are either 8 February or 15 February at this juncture.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 14 January 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session featured the December CPI release with core inflation at 2.6% YoY (beating softer expectations), reinforcing Fed easing hopes and pressuring yields and the dollar lower while lifting risk sentiment in equities. Trump’s 25% Iran tariff announcement drove crude oil higher amid geopolitical risks, partially overshadowing a DOJ probe into Fed Chair Powell that initially weighed on sentiment but faded. Most impacted were Treasuries (yields down), USD (weaker), oil (up sharply), and mixed U.S. indices, with financials hit by earnings.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian markets open to U.S. CPI and retail sales data that could shift USD strength and Fed policy views, compounded by Iran’s unrest pressuring oil supplies and Japan’s election speculation weakening the yen, prompting caution on energy commodities, JPY crosses, and equity indices like Nikkei amid heightened volatility.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core PPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Core Retail Sales m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

PPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Core PPI m/m (Oct Data)

PPI m/m (Oct Data)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar navigated choppy waters, stabilizing after Tuesday’s rebound against the yen but under pressure from President Trump’s ongoing critiques of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which stoke inflation worries and question Fed independence, leading to GBP strength above 1.3450 and broad USD softness; investors hedged positions ahead of recent CPI data (core YoY at ~2.7%) and eyed persistent US economic resilience versus global peers.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path. Updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Core PPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Core Retail Sales m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

PPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Core PPI m/m (Oct Data)

PPI m/m (Oct Data)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAUUSD) traded mixed on Wednesday, fluctuating around the level as traders weighed fresh U.S. data against shifting interest‑rate expectations. A move in Treasury yields and the dollar dominated price action, with stronger‑than‑expected economic numbers briefly pressuring bullion before dip‑buyers emerged on ongoing geopolitical and inflation concerns.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The AUD kicked off 2026 resiliently near 14-15 month highs around 0.67-0.675, driven by inflation persistence above RBA’s 2-3% target and policy hints from Governor Bullock and Deputy Hauser. Despite cautious economic indicators like narrowing trade surpluses and falling job ads, bullish technicals like RSI above 50 and ascending channels suggest upside potential toward 0.69 in 12 months. Traders remain focused on US CPI and Fed dynamics for near-term direction.

​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November 2025 policy meeting, adopting a cautious tone amid a surprise uptick in inflation data for the September quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive pause since the 25 basis point cut in August. The Board attributed some of the inflation rise to temporary factors like higher petrol prices and council rates, but noted signs of more persistent pressures from consumer demand.​
• Policymakers emphasized vigilance on inflation, with trimmed mean inflation expected to remain elevated in the near term before nearing the 2–3% target midpoint by mid-2027. Recent data showed underlying inflation staying above target until at least the second half of 2026, prompting upward revisions to forecasts. Capacity pressures are seen as slightly more pronounced than previously assessed, delaying any easing.
• Headline CPI for the September quarter exceeded expectations, driven partly by temporary items, while underlying measures signal ongoing stickiness. The shift to monthly CPI reporting, with the first full edition in November 2025, will enhance real-time inflation monitoring. Housing and services remain resilient contributors to price pressures.
• Domestic demand shows firmness in services alongside below-trend growth elsewhere, with capacity pressures not expected to ease significantly. The labor market is gradually softening, with unemployment projected to stabilize around 4.4%, though wage growth and productivity dynamics keep unit labor costs a concern. Household spending faces headwinds from high borrowing costs.​
• Global risks include geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility, set against modestly revised-up world growth outlooks. The Board describes its policy as mildly restrictive and data-dependent, balancing inflation control with employment goals. No rate hike was considered despite the inflation surprise.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive to address lingering price stability risks amid household and global vulnerabilities. Communications reaffirm the dual mandate of 2–3% inflation and full employment, with readiness to adjust based on incoming data.​
• Market expectations point to the cash rate holding through early 2026, with a possible modest cut to 3.3% mid-year if inflation eases as forecast. The new monthly CPI data will be key for timely insights.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 2 to 3 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) showed modest gains against the US Dollar, trading around 0.5770-0.5777, up approximately 0.10% from the prior session amid a weaker greenback driven by concerns over Federal Reserve independence following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on legal threats from the Trump administration.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period, provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen (USDJPY) weakened significantly against the US dollar, reaching levels around 159 USD/JPY amid speculation of a snap election by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, which could lead to expansionary fiscal policies further pressuring the currency.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan will meet on 18–19 December with markets almost fully pricing a 25-basis-point hike, which would raise the short-term policy rate from 0.50% to around 0.75%, as the bank moves further away from its ultra-loose stance while stressing that any tightening will remain gradual and data-dependent.
• The BOJ is expected to continue guiding the uncollateralized overnight call rate in a narrow band around the new policy rate, near 0.75%, while signaling that the pace and timing of any additional hikes will depend on how past increases affect bank lending, corporate financing conditions, and overall economic activity.
• The quarterly path of JGB purchases remains on a pre-announced, gradual taper: outright purchases are being reduced by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, then by roughly ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, with the bank still aiming for JGB purchases to settle near ¥2 trillion in Q1 2027 and retaining flexibility to adjust the pace if market functioning or yield volatility deteriorate.
• Japan’s economy has softened in the near term, with Q3 2025 GDP contracting at an annualized rate of approximately 2.3%, as weaker residential investment and external demand weighed on activity. Meanwhile, business sentiment in manufacturing has recently improved to a roughly four-year high.
• Core consumer inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to around 3.0% year-on-year in October, up from 2.9% in September and remaining above the BOJ’s 2% target, while the “core-core” measure excluding both fresh food and energy rose to about 3.1%, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures.
• In the very near term, some input-cost pressures are easing as earlier import price surges fade, but services inflation linked to labor shortages, along with steady wage gains, continues to support broader price momentum; firms’ and households’ medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored slightly above 2%, keeping short-term inflation risks tilted to the upside.
• For the coming quarters, the BOJ assesses that real growth will likely run below potential as the economy digests tighter financial conditions and past yen depreciation. However, accommodative real rates, positive real wage growth, and improving corporate sentiment are expected to help sustain a modest recovery in private consumption and business investment.
• Over the medium term, as overseas demand stabilizes and domestic labor markets remain tight, the BOJ expects wage settlements and inflation expectations to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory around or slightly above 2%, providing room for further cautious rate normalization as long as financial conditions remain supportive and the recovery is not derailed.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 22 to 23 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets show continued downward pressure amid forecasts of oversupply, with Brent and WTI prices trending lower toward mid-$50s averages for the year due to robust production from the US, Russia, and others outpacing demand. Recent US sanctions on Russian oil exports to India and China, alongside actions against Venezuelan crude, have introduced some volatility but failed to reverse the glut, as workarounds limit impacts.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 14 January 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 14 January 2026

What happened in the Asia session?
China’s blockbuster trade surplus and export surge boosted regional equities and the yuan (USD/CNY ~6.98), but the yen weakened significantly on election speculation (USD/JPY ~159), driving intervention fears, while commodities like oil and precious metals rallied on U.S.-Iran tensions and soft CPI supporting rate-cut bets; Nikkei led equity gains amid mixed broader markets.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Traders should monitor key bank earnings from Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, releasing before the US session opens, alongside anticipation for December producer price index (PPI) inflation data, which could influence Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Oil prices are pausing gains amid resuming Venezuelan shipments, but with looming Iran-related tensions due to President Trump’s 25% tariff threat on nations trading with Iran.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core PPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Core Retail Sales m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

PPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Core PPI m/m (Oct Data)

PPI m/m (Oct Data)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar showed mixed performance, stabilizing around the DXY level of 99.17-99.20 amid reactions to recent US CPI data and ongoing concerns over Federal Reserve independence. Reports of a Trump administration probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell fueled initial weakness, boosting safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and pressuring the dollar against pairs like EURUSD and GBPUSD.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labour market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualised pace in Q2 2025, according to revised estimates. However, Q3 and Q4 are expected to face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions, such as the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signalling a gradual disinflation path. Updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labour market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for  27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Core PPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Core Retail Sales m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

PPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Core PPI m/m (Oct Data)

PPI m/m (Oct Data)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices remain near record highs, trading around $4,595-$4,626 per ounce amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Spot gold hit a peak of $4,634.33 yesterday before pulling back slightly, supported by factors like uncertainties over Fed independence and strong safe-haven demand.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro (EUR) traded lower against the US Dollar, with the EUR/USD pair slipping to around 1.1642, down 0.21% from the prior session amid a rebounding Greenback driven by mixed US inflation data and jobs figures. Investor morale in the euro zone showed unexpected resilience at the start of 2026, as indicated by the Sentix index rising to its highest level in recent months.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 4–5 January 2026 meeting, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40% and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision aligns with the assessment that the current stance supports medium-term price stability, as inflation edges below the 2% target while growth shows resilience amid balanced risks. Markets and commentary indicate value in holding steady, with no fixed path ahead given uncertainties in data.
• Price dynamics remain stable near target levels. Headline HICP inflation stood at 2.1% in November 2025, with projections for 1.9% in 2026 driven by base effects from energy and easing non-energy components. Services inflation persists somewhat elevated but trends toward moderation, alongside contained food pressures.
• December 2025 Eurosystem staff projections confirm headline inflation at 2.1% for 2025, declining to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 before nearing 2% in 2028. Downside risks from soft producer prices and anchored expectations offset potential upsides from geopolitics or fiscal measures.
• Euro area GDP growth remains resilient at subdued levels, with Q3 2025 at 0.3% qoq and forecasts around 1.2-1.4% for 2025-2027. Surveys signal stabilization, bolstered by public investment and external demand against softer private spending.
• The labour market stays tight overall, with unemployment steady at 6.4% through October 2025, near historic lows and solid participation. Real incomes support consumption as inflation eases, with credit conditions aiding gradual household and firm expansion.
• Business sentiment reflects caution over US policy, trade tensions, and tariffs, tempered by easing supply chains and a competitive euro. Export sectors gain a modest lift, while domestic drivers like investment build momentum.
• The Governing Council will continue to make data-dependent decisions meeting by meeting, assessing inflation outlook, underlying trends, and transmission. Both hikes and cuts remain possible based on data, avoiding preset paths amid uncertainties.
• Balance sheet normalization proceeds steadily, with APP and PEPP portfolios shrinking post-reinvestment halts, at a pace deemed suitable without market strain.

​The next meeting is on 4 to 5 February 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc maintains firmness around 0.797-0.80 per USD, driven by haven demand amid geopolitical risks and steady SNB policy at 0%, though forecasts eye a corrective dip before potential USD recovery; over the past year, CHF has gained 12.60% versus the dollar.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its 11 December 2025 monetary policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, extending the pause that began in September as the Governing Board judges that current settings are sufficient to keep inflation near, but still below, its target while avoiding an unnecessary move into negative rates.
• Recent data show that the tentative rebound in Swiss inflation has stalled, with headline CPI easing from 0.1% year‑on‑year in October to 0.0% in November and core inflation slipping to about 0.4%, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain very weak and that deflation risks, while contained, have not fully disappeared.
• The SNB’s conditional inflation forecast is likely to remain close to the September projections, with inflation still seen averaging roughly 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027 under an unchanged policy rate path, though the latest CPI prints argue for a slightly lower near‑term profile and keep open the option of renewed easing if activity or prices weaken further.
• The global backdrop has deteriorated further, as continuing U.S. tariff actions and softer external demand weigh on world trade, while uncertainty in key European and U.S. markets for Swiss exports persists, leaving the SNB cautious about the growth outlook despite Switzerland’s relatively resilient domestic demand.
• Business and labour-market sentiment in export‑oriented manufacturing remains subdued, with firms reporting pressure on margins from the still‑strong franc and softer foreign orders, although the broader economy is still expected to grow at around 1–1.5% in 2025 and unemployment only drifting up gradually from low levels.
• The SNB continues to stress its willingness to act if deflation risks re‑emerge, reiterating that it can ease policy through renewed rate cuts or targeted foreign‑exchange intervention if necessary, while also highlighting its commitment to transparent communication, including the publication of detailed minutes from recent assessments and ongoing dialogue with international partners on FX policy

The next meeting is on 19 March 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Pound (GBPUSD) holds firm gains near 1.3470 against a battered USD, fueled by US political risks to Fed autonomy and Powell’s charges, though technical supports at 1.3365 loom and UK data could cap upside amid BoE easing expectations.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on 18 December 2025, with the current Bank Rate standing at 4.00 per cent after being held in a close 5–4 vote at the 5 November meeting. Market pricing and analyst commentary point to a high risk of a 25‑basis‑point cut to 3.75 per cent, but this remains conditional on incoming inflation and labour‑market data, so the December note should be treated as pre‑decision guidance rather than an ex‑post summary.
• The BoE is expected to leave its quantitative tightening (QT) framework broadly unchanged through year‑end, maintaining the lower reduction pace in gilt holdings that was set earlier in 2025. Official communications still characterise the existing QT path as consistent with a restrictive stance, with policymakers stressing that balance‑sheet reduction will remain gradual and sensitive to market‑liquidity conditions.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 3.6 per cent year‑on‑year in October 2025, down from 3.8 per cent in September, helped by softer energy and goods prices, though it remains almost twice the 2 per cent target. Underlying inflation pressures, particularly in services, have continued to moderate only slowly, so the MPC’s central projection still envisages inflation moving closer to, but not yet reaching, 3 per cent over the course of 2026, contingent on further normalisation in energy and wage dynamics.
• UK economic activity remains weak heading into the December meeting, with the labour market showing further signs of slackening. The unemployment rate has risen toward just above 5 per cent on the latest three‑month figures to October, while overall regular pay growth has slowed to around the mid‑4 per cent range, reinforcing the view that domestic cost pressures are gradually easing.
• External conditions continue to cloud the outlook, with fragile global growth and fluctuating commodity prices contributing to bouts of financial‑market volatility. The MPC has highlighted that renewed global energy or food price shocks could temporarily slow the pace of disinflation, but such risks are currently judged unlikely to derail the medium‑term downward trajectory for inflation if domestic demand stays subdued.
• The balance of risks around the inflation outlook remains finely poised. Downside risks are linked to persistently weak domestic demand and rising unemployment, while upside risks come from still‑elevated inflation expectations, sticky services inflation, and the possibility that structural changes in the labour market leave less slack than conventional indicators suggest.
• Overall, the MPC’s stance going into December is restrictive but increasingly open to a gradual easing cycle, with any rate cuts expected to be measured and data‑dependent. Policymakers have reiterated that the Bank Rate will need to stay in restrictive territory until they are confident inflation is on a sustainable path back to the 2 per cent target, and they have signalled that the profile of cuts, once started, is likely to be shallow rather than rapid.
• The next meeting is on 5 February 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) traded steadily around 1.3890-1.3900 against the USD showing mild weakness amid broader US dollar resilience and mixed oil price signals. Forecasts suggest a potential test of resistance near 1.3915, with downside risks toward 1.3720 if bearish momentum builds, influenced by cautious Fed outlooks and softer Canadian labor data.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council left the target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at its 10 December 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations and signalling that the earlier easing cycle has likely concluded. The Bank noted that while global tariff tensions and trade uncertainty persist, the external backdrop has stabilised somewhat, reducing the need for additional insurance cuts even as world trade remains fragile.
• The Council acknowledged that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and tariffs continues to weigh on business sentiment, but recent data show Canadian manufacturing and goods exports holding up better than anticipated. Surveys cited by the Bank suggest export order books have stopped deteriorating, with firms reporting some rebuilding of backlogs despite still‑cautious capital spending plans.
• Canada’s economy rebounded more strongly than expected in the third quarter, with real GDP expanding at an annualised pace of about 2.6% after a 1.8% contraction in Q2, largely on the back of higher crude exports and government spending. Monthly data show output rising 0.2% in September, though flash estimates point to a softer start to Q4 as some sectors give back earlier gains.
• Service sector activity has firmed, with indicators showing the services PMI back above the 50 threshold and broadening gains in business and professional services. However, consumer-facing categories remain mixed, as still‑elevated price levels and only modest real income growth keep a lid on discretionary spending even as tourism and technology‑related services expand.
• Housing markets have continued to stabilise, with national resale activity and prices edging higher through the autumn alongside the earlier decline in borrowing costs. The Bank noted that while some major urban centres are seeing renewed price pressures, tighter underwriting standards and still‑high affordability constraints are expected to cap the pace of any rebound.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 2.2% year over year in October and is estimated to have remained near that rate in November, keeping it slightly above the 2% target but comfortably within the 1%–3% control range. Core measures have drifted lower, with CPI‑median and CPI‑trim around 3% or below, reinforcing the assessment that underlying price pressures are gradually moderating even as gasoline and some shelter components remain volatile.
• The Governing Council reiterated that the current policy rate is “about the right level” to keep inflation close to target while supporting the economy through a period of structural adjustment, and it signalled a shift away from near‑term easing expectations. While the Bank did not rule out future adjustments, officials stressed that, barring a material downside surprise to growth or inflation, further rate cuts are unlikely before 2026, and attention is now focused on the durability of the recovery and the evolution of core inflation.
• The next meeting is on 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices steadied near recent highs, following a four-day rally driven by escalating tensions with Iran. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $61 per barrel, while Brent traded above $65, pausing after gains amid US discussions on Iran and President Trump’s support for protests there.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 14 January 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Equities Fall Despite Weaker Inflation Data – Dow down 0.8%
US equity markets moved lower overnight, with stocks retreating despite a slightly softer-than-expected Core CPI reading. Bank stocks led the decline as new credit card law proposals weighed, pushing the Dow Jones down 0.80% to 49,191, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.19% to 6,963 and the Nasdaq eased 0.10% to 23,709. In rates markets, Treasury yields finished the session little changed. The 2-year yield edged 0.2 basis points lower to 3.533%, while the 10-year yield rose marginally by 0.4 basis points to 4.179%, reflecting a cautious but stable rates outlook. The US dollar regained momentum, with the DXY rising 0.28% to 99.17, recovering most of the prior session’s losses. Commodities were mixed. Oil prices extended their rally as traders continued to price in Iranian supply risks, with Brent crude climbing 2.43% to $65.42 per barrel and WTI rising 2.69% to $61.10. Gold pulled back modestly from record highs, easing 0.24% to $4,586.52, though prices remain elevated amid lingering geopolitical and policy uncertainty.

Trump Set to Influence Markets Strongly Again in 2026
There is no doubt that the President of the United States has significant power to move markets, given that they run the biggest economy in the world, but most investors and traders will also confirm that President Trump has probably been the most market-moving President in history. If the first couple of weeks of 2026 are anything to go by, that pattern looks set to continue in the trading year ahead. Since we hit the new year, we have already seen US actions in Venezuela and Iran heavily contributing to moves in petro products and overall risk, while proposed new legislation and legal threats have weighed strongly on local US markets. In addition to this, we have a potential Supreme Court ruling coming out later today on the President’s controversial tariff measures and their legality, which is also guaranteed to see strong reactions across financial markets. In short, for most traders, it has been a case of: hope you enjoyed your December holidays, strap in for another volatile ride in 2026.

US Session in Focus Again for Traders
Looking ahead, the macroeconomic calendar remains quiet through the Asian and European sessions once again; however, geopolitics should ensure that the market remains lively. This is especially true in the Asian session, where traders will be monitoring political updates throughout the day in Japan as to whether a snap election will be held. The yen saw some strong moves on the back of this yesterday, and traders are expecting more today. The main calendar focus for the day will again be on the New York session, where markets will digest a heavy US data slate, including Producer Price Index (exp +0.2% m/m and Core +0.2% m/m) and Retail Sales figures (exp +0.5%, Core +0.4% m/m) early in the day. This is followed by Existing Home Sales (exp 4.21 mio) data, and we will also hear from several Federal Reserve officials, including members Miran, Bostic, Williams, Kashkari, and Paulson.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 14/01/26 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.47%, Shanghai Composite down 0.37%, Hang Seng down 0.02% ASX up 0.14%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,641.05 (+0.92%), Silver at $90.542 (+4.50%), Brent Oil at $65.21 (-0.32%), WTI Oil at $60.97 (-0.36%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.177, UK 10-year yield at 4.2990, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8134

News & Data:

• (USD) Core CPI m/m 0.2% to 0.3% expected
• (USD) CPI m/m 0.3% to 0.3% expected
• (USD) CPI y/y 2.7% to 2.7% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets traded mostly higher on Wednesday, shrugging off broadly negative cues from Wall Street overnight, as Japan’s Nikkei continued its record-breaking rally. Investor sentiment was supported by a U.S. inflation report showing consumer prices rising in line with expectations, while core inflation increased slightly less than forecast, reinforcing optimism about the interest-rate outlook. Asian markets had closed mostly higher on Tuesday.

Although the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at its January meeting, markets continue to anticipate at least one quarter-point rate cut in the coming months.

Australian shares, however, slipped modestly after opening higher, reversing some of the gains from the previous two sessions. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 fell below the 8,800 level, weighed down by weakness in gold miners, financials, and technology stocks, following negative overnight cues from Wall Street. Losses in major banks and select tech names offset mixed performances among miners and energy stocks.

In contrast, Japanese equities surged sharply, extending gains from the prior two sessions. The Nikkei 225 moved above the 54,200 mark, led by strong advances in technology, exporters, and financial stocks, despite a pullback in some heavyweight shares.

Elsewhere in Asia, markets in New Zealand, China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Indonesia posted modest gains, while South Korea and Singapore edged lower.

On Wall Street, U.S. stocks ended Tuesday slightly lower after a choppy session, while European markets finished narrowly mixed. Meanwhile, crude oil prices jumped more than 2 percent amid rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, fueling supply concerns.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Core PPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD PPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Core Retail Sales m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Retail Sales m/m

The post Wednesday 14th January 2026: Asian Markets Mostly Higher as Japan’s Nikkei Extends Record Run Despite Weak Wall Street Cues first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.