US Stocks Drop Again – Nasdaq off 1.2%

US equities drifted lower again overnight as valuation concerns kept investors on the defensive ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release, due after the bell tonight. The Dow fell 1.07% to close at 46,091, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.83% to 6,617 and the Nasdaq dropped 1.21% to 22,432. The US dollar was little changed, with the DXY edging up 0.02% to 99.61. Treasury markets were steadier, with yields easing ahead of the latest Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes. The 2-year yield slipped 3.8 basis points to 3.573%, while the 10-year yield declined 2.5 basis points to 4.113%. Oil prices pushed higher in choppy trading as markets continued to digest the impact of sanctions on Russian crude. Brent rose 0.89% to $64.77, and WTI gained 1.25% to $60.66. Gold also found some support, lifting 0.62% off support levels to $4,069.51.

Gold to Trade on Dollar Sentiment in Coming Days

Gold has remained trading in a volatile manner in recent weeks but has stuck to a wider range as a variety of changing factors have led to strong rallies followed by equally strong descents. Recent reports that some major central bank players are now confirming – through data rather than any announcements – that they have been actively buying the world’s favourite precious metal over the last few months have answered a few questions for experienced traders with regard to the huge move up after the early September break of the previous record level. However, traders are now looking for fundamentals to reinforce moves in one direction or another. Gold bounced nicely off support levels overnight as some good buying flows came through the market, but traders are now expecting more moves on fundamentals, initially off the Fed Meeting Minutes tonight and then off the delayed September Non-Farm Payrolls data tomorrow. These should both see the dollar side of the equation dominate sentiment with regard to moves, at least for the next few sessions.

Busy Day Ahead for Traders

It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar today, with some key data due out across the sessions before we hit the Fed Meeting Minutes near the end of the day. Australian markets are again in focus during the Asian session, with Wage Price Index data (exp +0.8%) due out early in the day. There is key UK data due out in the European session, with the CPI figures (exp +3.5% y/y) the main market mover of a big data dump early in the day. In the US session, traders will be watching the weekly Crude Oil Inventory numbers (exp -1.9 million barrels) earlier in the day before attention shifts to the FOMC Meeting Minutes a few hours before the close and Nvidia’s highly anticipated results update.

The post General Market Analysis – 19/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 19 November 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Australian wage data was the headline macroeconomic release, and it limited AUD volatility and provided a neutral backdrop for local equities. Japanese data releases were absent, but ongoing stimulus pressures slightly weakened the JPY. Asian equities opened positively, mirroring some overnight gains, but remained mixed as traders reassessed risk amid global interest rate outlooks and China’s FDI data. The USD stayed in focus ahead of key FOMC communications, with potential for increased volatility later in the session

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Asian markets faced downside pressure in the session as investors digested weak macroeconomic signals from China, steady Australian labor data, and doubts about rapid Fed easing. The Nikkei 225 and Japanese government bonds led the selloff, with tech and retail stocks in focus. Diverging monetary policy expectations and ongoing rate concerns shaped currency and equity moves

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

FOMC Meeting Minutes (7:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar (USD) centers around market positioning ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, which remains the day’s key event for trader sentiment and price action. In early market moves, the dollar has been relatively stable, with investors awaiting insight into the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, particularly regarding interest rate cuts and overall economic outlook.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

FOMC Meeting Minutes (7:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices on Wednesday showed a continuation of high volatility, reflecting both recent corrections and underlying bullish sentiment in global markets. Despite short-term pullbacks, gold remains strongly supported as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainty and changing expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold traded around $4,070 to $4,080 per troy ounce in the early hours, showing a slight rebound after recent declines.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

Today, Euro sentiment is dominated by global risk trends, cautious trading ahead of US news, and persistent technical pressure against the US dollar. The ECB’s steady stance and lack of dramatic Eurozone news suggest limited upside, with fragile support levels and possible volatility around major US events. The EUR/USD currency pair is hovering near 1.1590, reflecting broad weakness versus the US dollar with short-term bearish technical outlooks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, aided by stable banking sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

Today’s picture for CHF is sturdy, with technical signals suggesting some potential near-term uptick for USD/CHF, but the broader medium-term trend still favors the Swiss Franc due to its safe-haven status and recent trade developments. Expect heightened volatility around key U.S. data releases and FOMC minutes later in the day.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

CPI y/y (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Pound is under pressure due to softer inflation, increased expectations of a Bank of England rate cut, and uncertainty regarding the forthcoming UK Budget. Market participants are closely watching fiscal announcements for their impact on economic growth and GBP direction in the coming weeks.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted by a majority of 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar is trading near 1.40 per USD today, buoyed by solid labor data and fading inflation concerns, but faces ongoing pressure from interest rate differentials and US Dollar strength. Political stability has helped support CAD, while technical and macroeconomic forecasts indicate continued range-bound trading with medium-term upside possible if US monetary policy loosens or commodities rally.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to cap overall resale volumes, leading to only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
WeaK Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets today are focused on the impact of new Russian sanctions, the resilience of supply routes after attacks, and the risk of oversupply due to increasing global production. Prices have edged lower from recent highs, with Brent at about $64 and WTI near $59, as the market weighs geopolitical risks against macroeconomic supply-demand dynamics.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 19 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 19 November 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session overnight was marked by a continuation of global equity weakness, led by tech and AI names, amid renewed fears over stretched valuations and delayed macroeconomic data from the U.S. government shutdown. Safe-haven flows benefited Treasuries and select currencies, while commodities and digital assets retreated further. This environment set the stage for heightened volatility as traders await incoming U.S. economic releases and pivotal tech earnings, which are expected to drive market direction in the coming days.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

US and Chinese macro headlines remain dominant themes, as Asia’s session is shaped by global policy shifts and cross-border capital flows. Market attention is on further AI-sector volatility, the pace of US dollar moves, the reaction to US government shutdown news, and any changes flagged in Japanese monetary policy.​ Anticipation for China’s later-in-week numbers and any signals from US inflation data or Federal Reserve statements continue to set the tone.​

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

FOMC Meeting Minutes (7:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar is expected to react to the FOMC minutes, with market participants seeking clarity on future monetary policy. The release of delayed economic data could further influence dollar sentiment in the coming days. Overall, traders should watch for increased volatility and rate adjustments as new information becomes available.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressure but still warranting vigilance amid tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

FOMC Meeting Minutes (7:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices have experienced a corrective phase, settling near the $4,000 mark amid cautious global sentiment and pre-positioning ahead of key U.S. data releases, including the FOMC meeting minutes and jobs figures. Market participants are closely watching for signals regarding Federal Reserve policy, which could impact rate expectations and the dollar, thus affecting gold’s direction for the remainder of November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Wage Price Index q/q (12:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar is likely to continue trading within its established range unless prompted by sharp shifts in Chinese data, US Federal Reserve policy, or local employment/inflation surprises. The RBA remains inclined to hold rates steady, and near-term volatility will likely be driven by global risk sentiment and commodity price fluctuations.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on Wednesday, 19th November 2025, indicates continued weakness due to expectations of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The NZD/USD hovered around 0.5660, reflecting muted risk sentiment and sluggish economic data, with speculation that the RBNZ will cut rates further in response to a slowing economy and inflation pressures.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025, exceeding market expectations for a smaller 25-basis-point reduction and signaling a stronger commitment to reviving growth.
• The decision was reached by consensus, marking a shift from previous split votes, and reflected policymakers’ shared view that sustained economic weakness and persistent disinflationary pressures required a more front-loaded policy response.
• Annual consumer price inflation stood at 2.7% in the June quarter and is seen nearing 3% for the September quarter—above the 2% midpoint but within the 1–3% target range. Despite high near-term readings, the MPC projects inflation will return toward 2% by the first half of 2026 as spare capacity and moderating tradables curb price momentum.
• Policymakers acknowledged that domestic demand remains weak, with household spending, business investment, and construction activity under pressure. While still elevated, services inflation is expected to ease gradually as wage growth slows and unemployment edges higher.
• Financial conditions have eased with expectations as wholesale and retail borrowing rates adjust to lower policy settings. Bank lending data indicate a modest uptick in mortgage approvals, though broader credit demand remains subdued.
• GDP growth stalled in the middle of 2025, with high-frequency indicators showing continued weakness into the third quarter. A combination of elevated costs for essentials and falling savings continues to restrain household consumption, while global trade frictions weigh on business sentiment.
• The MPC noted that global uncertainty—particularly from US trade regulation changes and soft Chinese demand—continues to pose downside risks to export sectors, though these are partly offset by a weaker New Zealand dollar improving competitiveness.
• Subject to data confirming a sustained soft patch in activity and moderating inflation pressures, the MPC signaled further scope to reduce the OCR toward 2.25% at its next meeting on 26 November 2025, consistent with current market and Westpac forecasts.
• The next meeting is on 26 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese Yen remains under pressure as fiscal expansion and accommodative monetary policy signals dominate headlines. Exchange rate volatility and persistent softness have prompted direct warnings from Japanese officials, raising the risk of FX intervention. Technical forecasters note possible short-term corrections if resistance levels hold, but warn of continued weakness unless government and central bank actions change course dramatically.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are trading in a narrow range, with WTI crude futures last seen around $59.5–$60 per barrel and ICE Brent in the $62–66 range. The market remains subdued as concerns about excess global supply and upcoming sanctions against Russian oil majors, effective November 21, drive cautious sentiment among major buyers like China, India, and Turkey. The reopening of Russia’s Novorossiysk port after a Ukrainian attack has eased immediate supply risks, contributing to price stability in recent days.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 19 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Under the current situation, even if Japanese aquatic products are exported to China, there will be no market
• Japan PM Takaichi’s erroneous remarks about Taiwan have fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations
• China seriously urges Japan to retract its erroneous remarks, stop creating incidents on China-related issues
• Urges Japan to take concrete actions to admit its mistakes
• If Japan refuses to withdraw the remarks, even continuing to make mistakes, China will have to take stern and resolute countermeasures
• Japan will bear all the consequences arising therefrom

This follows a report from Kyodo on China considering a ban on Japanese seafood imports here.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior +3.8%
• Core CPI +3.4% vs +3.4% y/y expected
• Prior +3.5%
• Services CPI +4.5 vs 4.6% y/y expected
• Prior +4.7%

The figures are in line with expectations, except the services measure which was lower than expected. The market was already pricing an 80% probability of a rate cut in December, so the data is not going to materially change things even though we should see the probabilities strengthen.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior +3.8%
• Core CPI +3.4% vs +3.4% y/y expected
• Prior +3.5%
• Services CPI +4.5 vs 4.6% y/y expected
• Prior +4.7%

The figures are in line with expectations, except the services measure which was lower than expected. The market was already pricing an 80% probability of a rate cut in December, so the data is not going to materially change things even though we should see the probabilities strengthen.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 99.35

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 99.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1577

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1537

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1650

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 178.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 177.13
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 180.73
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.8817

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 0.8751
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8865
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3257

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3102
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3319
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 203.11

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 201.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 205.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7975

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7892
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8037
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 154.38

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 153.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 155.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                          

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3986

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3907

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4073

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.6513

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 0.6458

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6575

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 0.5689

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 0.5614

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5760

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 46,458.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 45,767.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 47,020.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 23,429.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 22,803.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,940.12

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 6,675.17

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 6,590.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,746.72

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 98,751.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 88,804.26

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 105,022.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3,2900.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,667.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,666.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 59.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 57.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance:61.12
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,111.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,010.48
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,217.81
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 19th November 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.25%, Shanghai Composite down -0.04%, Hang Seng down -0.54% ASX down -0.18%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,073.86 (0.17%), Silver at $50.758 (0.53%), Brent Oil at $64.69 (-0.31%), WTI Oil at $60.49 (-0.30%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.121, UK 10-year yield at 4.5590, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7095

News & Data:

• (CAD) Housing Starts  233K  to 265K expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher on Wednesday, despite the weak cues from Wall Street, as investors look for bargain opportunities following a three-day sell-off. Caution persists ahead of delayed U.S. economic data, including the September jobs report, which may influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. Earlier private employment indicators had supported hopes of a rate cut, but recent comments from Fed officials have reduced such expectations. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now reflects a 48.9 percent probability of a 25-basis-point cut.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 is slightly higher, supported by gains in gold miners though financial stocks remain weak. Major miners are mixed, while technology shares show varied performance. Gold miners such as Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources are posting notable gains. Corporate developments include sharp movements in DroneShield, Webjet, and Nufarm shares. Wage data for the third quarter showed steady quarterly and annual growth, aligning with expectations. The Australian dollar is trading near $0.650.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is advancing, supported by strength in automakers and key index heavyweights, despite continued weakness in technology stocks. Machinery orders for September exceeded forecasts, reinforcing optimism for future quarters. The yen is trading in the lower 155-per-dollar range.

Elsewhere in Asia, major markets are modestly higher, while Hong Kong is flat. Wall Street closed sharply lower on Tuesday, and European markets also saw significant declines. Crude oil prices strengthened on expectations of increasing demand following the end of the U.S. government shutdown.

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The post Wednesday 19th November 2025: Asian Stocks Rebound Cautiously Ahead of Delayed U.S. Economic Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• China intends to renew a ban on Japanese seafood imports
• AUD, kiwi, CAD all losing ground against the USD
• Tesla received a ride-hailing permit from Arizona, opening the door to begin robotaxi
• BOJ may delay rate hike until March as advisers urge caution on weak economy
• ICYMI: BoE sets out plans for regulated sterling stablecoins with temporary holding limits
• Army Secretary Driscoll and chief of staff Gen. George visit Ukraine – unannounced trip
• More on the BoJ Gov Ueda, fin min Katayama, eco min Kiuchi meeting soon
• Japan’s new economic stimulus package to exceed 20 tln yen – Kyodo reporting
• Bessent says Trump’s $2000 checks to Americans won’t be inflationary … don’t spend it
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, fin min Katayama, eco min Kiuchi to meet today
• Yen divides outlook: BoA survey sees 2026 rebound, MUFG warns of deeper near-term weakness
• Axios says the U.S. is secretly drafting new plan to end Ukraine war
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0872 (vs. estimate at 7.1121)
• Goldman Sachs sees oil sliding through 2026 on supply glut before recovering in 2027
• AUD is barely moved after the in line wages data from Australia
• Australia data – Wage Price Index for Q3 2025: 0.8% q/q (expected 0.8%)
• —
• Coming up: Nvidia faces high-stakes Q3 earnings. Wall Street demands strong beat-and-raise
• —
• Australian data: Westpac Leading Index for October 2025 +0.11% m/m (prior –0.03%)
• Japan: September Core machinery orders +4.2% m/m (expected +2.5%) & +11.6^% y/y (v. +5.4%)
• Trump signalled he has already decided who next Fed Chair will be, but doesn’t drop a name
• Deutsche Bank says central-bank demand keeps gold on bullish path into next year
• Foreign demand for Treasuries slips in September, Japan boosts buying
• White House announces weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, also an AI MOU
• Investors expect steady euro through 2026, BoA survey finds
• Trump pumps AI investment, making US economy hottest in world. Regulation tho, hot or not?
• investingLive Americas FX news wrap 18 Nov: USD is mixed. Nvidia earnings tomorrow
• New Zealand Q3 PPI: Outputs +0.6% (+0.7% expected) Inputs +0.2% (expected +0.9%)
• Oil – private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build greater than expected
• US stocks close lower. Midday rally runs out of steam
• UK media reports that Reeves will consider ‘shielding’ small businesses from tax rises

Risk appetite faded as currency pressure, Japan’s stimulus plans and Ukraine peace manoeuvring shaped the session.

—

Antipodean data offered a mixed picture. New Zealand’s PPI undershot expectations, while Australia’s wage figures for the September quarter came in exactly in line with both market and RBA forecasts. Headline wages rose 0.8% q/q and 3.4% y/y, but the detail leaned soft: private-sector wage growth slowed to 3.2% y/y and average pay rises were smaller than a year ago (3.6% vs 3.9%). Public-sector wages, however, remained elevated at 3.8% y/y.

Across FX, Asian currencies traded mixed in a risk-off environment as investors continued to question stretched U.S. equity valuations. The AUD and NZD underperformed through the session.

—

In Japan, Kyodo reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus package will exceed ¥20 trillion, backed by a ¥17 trillion supplementary budget. The scale of the package appears to be driving urgency in Tokyo:

• BOJ Governor Ueda meets Finance Minister Katayama and Economic Revitalisation Minister Kiuchi on Wednesday, with Katayama set to brief media afterwards.

• The meeting follows Ueda’s formal talks with PM Takaichi on Tuesday, covering economic conditions, policy outlook, and the yen’s rapid slide.

Advisers continue to push a cautious approach to tightening. Goushi Kataoka, a member of Takaichi’s economic panel and former BOJ board member, told Bloomberg he does not expect a rate hike before March, arguing that policymakers must first confirm the impact of fiscal stimulus.

Japanese Government Bond yields ticked higher, while the yen briefly firmed, with USD/JPY slipping toward 155.30 before bouncing after reports that China plans to reinstate a ban on Japanese seafood imports, adding fresh tension to the bilateral relationship.

—

On the geopolitical front, Axios reports the U.S. is secretly drafting a new plan—developed in consultation with Russia—to end the war in Ukraine. Senior U.S. military officials also made an unannounced visit to Kyiv this week, underscoring the fluidity of the diplomatic and military picture.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) -0.12%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) -0.45%
• Shanghai
  Composite -0.04%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) %-0.12

—

Ahead, after the US cash close on Wednesday, are Nvidia earnings. There is a preview in the points above, highlighted!. Markets once again look to the firm to save us!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Kyodo report.

Yen losing some ground on this.

–

Frosty relations between China and Japan were prompted by new Japan PM Takaichi making comments on Taiwan a couple of weeks ag0. China reacted with fury and it hasn’t let up.

Yesterday:

• investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: BOJ Governor Ueda to meet with PM Takaichi later
• China escalated pressure on Japan, banning travel by state-owned enterprise employees, cancelling tour groups and events, and halting Japanese film releases.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tesla received a ride-hailing permit this week from Arizona regulators

• opening the door for the automaker to begin operating a robotaxi service in the state

• Tesla applied for permit on November 13

• Tesla met the requirements to operate as a TNC and is permitted as of November 17
• permit is the final regulatory step to launch a robotaxi service in Arizona

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 37
• Current single family home sales 41 vs 38 prior
• Prospective buyers 26 vs 25 prior

The housing market is struggling with +6% US 30-year fixed rates. January lumber prices cratered recently.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.