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The United States and Ukraine say they have developed an “updated and refined” peace framework aimed at ending the war with Russia, revising an earlier Trump administration proposal that Kyiv and European partners viewed as overly favourable to Moscow.

Info via Reuters.

The joint announcement came after high-level talks in Geneva led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Both sides described the discussions as “highly productive” and said negotiations would continue in the coming days. Officials did not disclose details on core unresolved issues, including how to guarantee Ukraine’s long-term security against future Russian aggression.

Rubio told reporters that negotiators had made significant progress in narrowing outstanding questions in the 28-point peace plan put forward by President Donald Trump, though key issues — including NATO’s future role — remained under debate.

European officials joined the talks after drafting their own revisions, which push back against US-proposed limits on the size of Ukraine’s armed forces and reject pre-determined territorial concessions. The European version would allow Ukraine a larger military and proposes that any land-swap discussions begin from current front-line positions, not from assumptions about what territory should be considered Russian.

Trump has given Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy until Thursday to respond to the US plan, which reportedly includes territorial cessions, military caps, and renouncing NATO ambitions — terms many Ukrainians view as unacceptable after nearly four years of fighting. Trump has insisted his proposal is not final.

Rubio signalled that the US hopes a deal could be reached by Thursday but conceded that negotiations may extend beyond that timeline. US and Ukrainian officials are exploring a possible Zelenskiy visit to the United States, potentially as soon as this week, to discuss the most sensitive elements of the plan, though no meeting date has been confirmed.

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A revived peace framework could temporarily ease geopolitical risk premia, but unresolved territorial terms and NATO questions mean markets will remain sensitive to headline volatility around the negotiations.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese markets are closed today for Labor Thanksgiving Day, which fell on November 23 (but being observed on November 24).

Earlier:

• Japan signals greater readiness for early yen intervention – may come before 160

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.

How the process works:

• Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day’s trading.
• The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
• Intervention: If the yuan’s value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency’s value.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

President Donald Trump is preparing to unveil a broad plan aimed at curbing rising health-care costs, with an announcement expected as early as Monday, according to senior White House officials.

The initiative will call on Congress to deliver legislation that prevents sharp increases in Affordable Care Act premiums — an issue the administration views as politically and economically urgent ahead of the 2026 insurance cycle.

The rollout is set to take place at the White House and will feature remarks from Trump and Dr Mehmet Oz, the new administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Info via CNBC, more here.

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Efforts to stabilise ACA premiums could influence health-insurer sentiment and volatility in managed-care stocks, while signalling a broader policy push ahead of next year’s legislative calendar.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It’s a very sparse data calendar for the session here in APac on Monday, November 24, 2025.

There is data from Singapore:

• October Core CPI, prior + 0.4% y/y
• Headline CPI, prior 0.40% m/m
• Headline CPI, prior + 0.7% y/y

Due at 0500 GMT / 0000 US Eastern time

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US Secretary Marco Rubio said negotiations aimed at securing a framework to end the war in Ukraine made their strongest advance yet, describing the latest round of talks as “the most productive day we have had” since diplomatic engagement began.

Rubio said negotiators had “narrowed points in a very substantial way,” signalling that previously contentious issues are now closer to resolution. While stressing that work remains, he noted that the parties are “much further ahead today” compared with the start of discussions earlier in the morning.

The secretary described the draft framework as a “living, breathing document,” with outstanding items that he characterised as challenging but “not insurmountable.” A durable settlement, he said, must ultimately include security guarantees that leave Ukraine confident it will “never be invaded or attacked again.”

Rubio added that meaningful “sustainable progress” had been achieved and confirmed that talks would resume tomorrow.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Multiple airlines have suspended flights to Venezuela citing rising tensions

The US has been, and is continuing, ramping up military presence and pressure in the region, leading to speculation of some sort or imminent action.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Canada and India have agreed to restart negotiations on a comprehensive trade pact, ending a two-year freeze triggered by a diplomatic dispute.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached the breakthrough during their bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Johannesburg.

According to a statement from Modi’s office, the two leaders committed to reviving talks on a “high-ambition” Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with a goal of doubling bilateral trade to USD 50 billion by 2030.

Carney echoed the message in a post on X, noting that a successful deal could push trade above C$70 billion and open significantly larger opportunities for Canadian workers and businesses, given India’s status as the world’s fifth-largest economy.

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A renewed Canada–India CEPA could boost flows in agricultural goods, energy, tech services and investment channels, adding medium-term support for CAD-sensitive export sectors while expanding access for Indian firms.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Fed’s Williams: Downside risks to employment have increased
• US November S&P Global services flash PMI 55.0 vs 54.6 expected
• US November final UMich consumer sentiment 51.0 vs 50.5 expected
• US real weekly earnings for September -0.1% versus -0.3% in August
• Canada September retail sales -0.7% vs -0.7% expected
• Putin: Has received the US plan for peace.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 remains at 4.2%
• BOJ’s Masu: BOJ is close to decision to raise rates
• October CPI has been canceled. November CPI will be released on November 18
• ECB’s Muller: Seems we have inflation close enough to 2% for foreseeable future
• US wholesale sales for August 0.1% versus 0.4% estimate
• Fed’s Logan says should hold rates ‘for a time’ to assess
• Fed’s Collins: September jobs data was mixed
• Trump: Ukraine is losing land. Thursday is an appropriate deadline for Ukraine plan

Markets:

• S&P 500 up 1.0%
• Gold down $13 to $4060
• WTI crude oil down $1.03 to $57.97
• US 10-year yields down 3.9 bps to 4.065%
• Bitcoin down 2.6% to $84,926
• JPY leads, CHF lags

The mood darkened deeper early on Friday with stock futures sliding and bitcoin falling as low as $80,555. The turnaround initially came on comments from NY Fed President Williams, who indicated he was inclined to support a rate cut again in December. Williams is at the core of the Fed and isn’t likely to go go against Powell so the thinking was that this was a deliberate dovish message and market pricing from about a 30% chance of a cut to 60%. The Fed blackout starts at midnight next Friday so it’s going to be an interesting week, including ADP employment.

Despite that shift, the optimism didn’t initially last. Stock markets gave back early gains and fell into negative territory, though it was extremely choppy.

The second lift came when the White House floated selling Nvidia chips to China once again. That added some big bids to equities and helped Nvidia pare losses. At one point, stocks were significantly higher than the close but there was some selling in the final two hours, likely in part to skepticism about this report and lingering worries about an AI bubble. That tees up another lively week next week.

In FX, the message continues to be far less worry about the economy. Reports from The Gap and Ross Stores included favorable commentary on consumers and both shares rose 8% to be among the leaders. That continues the message from WMT earnings a day earlier. On net, the moves in FX were mostly unnotable this week with some mild EUR weakness and USD strength.

The exception is the yen, which continued to be beaten up this week and hit a record low against the euro and a long-term low vs the pound. USD/JPY intervention talk has begun and a BOJ official today made some hawkish comments. That helped to reverse the rally today and the pair fell a full cent.

After being a market darling for many weeks, gold continues to consolidate around $4100 but it’s been volatile within its range. On the more-bearish side, oil significantly slackened as Trump pushes a new peace plan for Ukraine with a ‘deadline’ for next Thursday.

Have a great weekend. I will be in London at the Finance Magnates London Summit next week. Stop in and say high if you’re in the neighbourhood.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The President of the United States judges himself — seemingly every day — on the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

He is a person that can’t stand to see stock markets go down, even for a brief period. He has utterly convinced himself — and not entirely without reason — that American progress is whatever number is on the index, preferably with non-stop record highs.

Just after Liberation Day, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared “it’s main street’s turn now” but that lasted about three days before the long, slow walkback on tariffs began. Notably, the earliest tariff U-turns were hinted at by Trump in tweets and likely front-run.

This is nothing new, I’ve been writing about it since Covid when Trump signed a copy of an intraday reversal on March 13, 2020 at the peak of virus panic. I wrote about it many times when he was running for re-election again.

It’s the north star of trading in the Trump era.

Now we get the White House floating that they’re thinking about letting Nvidia sell chips to China. This was an idea that was also floated during China negotiations and you have to wonder if it wasn’t always in the works. Or if it’s a tactic to halt market slumps. If it’s the later, you can only float it so many times before it doesn’t work any more.

None of that undermines the idea that Trump can’t stand to see the market go down and that dynamic will be increasingly important as we head towards the midterms in just under a year.

Of course, no man can control the market and covid showed that nature can inflict some real pain (at least for awhile) but Trump has plenty of ammunition with tariff waivers now and he’s going to try and stack the Fed. That’s a powerful mix.

Update: In terms of it being a deliberate leak to turn markets, Reuters sources are now also out with the same report. This is obviously a strategy; the only question is whether they mean it or not.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We have been down this road before, but Russian Pres. Putin is saying:

• He received the US plan for Ukraine.
• Think they can be a basis for final resolution.
• Text was not discussed with Russia.
• Says that Ukraine is against the plan.

Russia is ready for a peaceful resolution but the details of the plan need to be discussed.

Earlier, Ukraine Zelenskyy said to his country:

The country is facing “one of the most difficult moments in our history” as its strongest ally pressures it into accepting a deal with the nation that has spent eleven years trying to destroy it.

“Now the pressure on Ukraine is one of the most difficult. Ukraine may soon face an impossible choice — either the loss of dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner. Either the [Trump administration’s] 28-point plan, or an extremely difficult winter — the hardest yet — along with even greater risks. It would mean a life without freedom, without dignity, without justice, and trusting the one who has already attacked us twice. They will expect an answer from us.”

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Like the US employment report, the BLS is saying that the CPI report for October will NOT be released, and that the November report will be released on December 18. That is after the December FOMC rate decision on December 10. CPI

The CPI report will not include a one month change due to the October data missing.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.