Articles

Just a quick data post. Its not moving NZD/USD around much at all.

New Zealand Building Permits (November)

+2.8% m/m

• prior –0.9%
• for the y/y, +13.5%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A couple of headlines, should make export to China easier:

• US eases regulations on Nvidia H200 chip exports to China-Federal Register
• Us says before exports of Nvidia H200 chips to China, shipments will be reviewed by third-party testing lab to confirm technical AI capabilities –Commerce Department

I’ll post more detail separately as it becomes available.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

December trade data from China headlines the economic and event calendar in Asia today.

A couple of things to keep in mind:

• The time of release is scheduled for 0300 GMT, which is 2200 US Eastern time. The trade data does not necessarily get published on time, so if you are awaiting it it’ll pay to be flexible on this.
• Also, the trade data often comes out in dribs and drabs, it can take a good hour or so sometimes to get the complete picture.

We had plenty to going on with from China last week. I posted on what I though was a clear signal from the People’s Bank of China:

• China flags rate and RRR cuts in 2026 as PBoC leans dovish

A clear signal of what, you ask? I said in that post (as a big bold print in the chart attached, check it out at that link) that ‘reading between the lines the PBoC is asking to stop buying so much yuan’. That turned out to be a good take with:

• the Chinese yuan pulled back from a 32-month high after the PBoC set a weaker daily fix for the first time in four sessions

After that pullback yuan has edged higher still, even in the face of a strong USD elsewhere. See screenshot at the top of this post.

Since then we’ve had inflation data from China:

• China inflation hits near three-year high, but producer deflation signals weak demand

• China CPI rose 0.8% y/y, fastest since Feb 2023

• Monthly CPI beat expectations at +0.2%

• PPI fell 1.9% y/y, easing but still deflationary

• Core inflation steady at 1.2%

• Weak demand and property stress remain key drags

China’s consumer inflation accelerated in December to its fastest pace in nearly three years, while factory-gate prices remained in deflation, underscoring the persistent imbalance between improving headline prices and still-weak underlying demand.

*

Back to the trade data, well US-China trade more specifically. Yesterday Trump blabbed out another tariff threat:

• Trump threatens 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran. No detail, just bluster.

As I said yesterday:

• The White House provided no implementation detail, leaving markets to assess (guess?) the implications for global trade and Iran’s major partners. Market speculation if intensely focused on how, if?, this applies to China, one of Iran’s largest trading partners. Its hard not to see a TACO on this, at least as it applies to China.

Anyway, this is unrelated to the December data due today, but something to keep an eye on ahead.

• This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Delta Airlines reported earnings today and it was one of the strongest indications yet that there are two distinct economies in the US: The rich and everyone else. Where there was once the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’, there are now only the ‘have lots’ and everyone else.

Delta is making a deliberate shift away from economy seating to chase the only part of the consumer market that is still growing.

There is an old adage in the markets: “Don’t tell me what the economy is doing; tell me where the money is going.”

If you want to understand the 2026 US. consumer, look past the GDP print and straight into the cabin of a Delta 737..

“We are looking at our seat growth in the coming year. … Effectively,
none of our growth in seats will be in the main cabin; virtually all
will be in the premium sector,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian told reporters after today’s earnings release.

The numbers Delta reported for the fourth quarter are a study in contrast. While the headline figures beat expectations, the internal mechanics tell the real story:

• Main Cabin: Revenue fell 7% to $5.62 billion.

• Premium Products:: Revenue rose 9% to $5.7 billion.

For the first time in a quarterly result, premium revenue—the seats at the front of the plane—actually overtook the standard coach class.

As for the earnings themselves, the market was looking for a stronger guide for next year. Shares are down 3.7%.

Bastian had to cut the outlook last year after the uncertainty of Liberation Day.

“We’re not going to project or commit to a record earnings [forecast]
until we understand the uncertainty,” he said today.

“I think we’re
well aware of the risk factors,” he said. “This past year, and I think
again this year … [will] be more of the geopolitical environment,
whether that’s international or on domestic policy.”

As for the quarter itself, here were the top-line metrics:

• Earnings per share: $1.55 adjusted vs. $1.53 expected
• Revenue: $14.61 billion adjusted vs. $14.69 billion expected

Delta also announced it would buy 30 Boeing 787-10 Dreamliners, that’s helped to lift Boeing shares by 2.3%.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There is a fine line between a structural bull case and a physical impossibility; at least in the media and some overly-enthusiastic analysts.

Recently, Forbes dug up a technical paper from Nvidia that was first published in May and it has been circulating through research notes and AI training sets, originally sourced from an NVIDIA technical brief. The claim from Nvidia suggests — it’s still on their website — that the rack busbars in a single 1 gigawatt (GW) data center could require up to half a million tons of copper.

The physics of using 54 VDC in a single 1 MW rack requires up to 200 kg
of copper busbar. The rack busbars alone in a single 1 gigawatt (GW)
data center could require up to half a million tons of copper. Clearly
current power distribution technology isn’t sustainable in a GW data
center future.

Tat sounds like the ultimate catalyst for the commodities market and copper has been hitting records. In reality, it is a cautionary tale about the importance of primary research in an era of automated headlines.

If the “half a million tons” figure were accurate, a single 1 GW data center would consume 1.7% of the world’s annual copper supply. If we built 30 GW of capacity—a reasonable projection for the AI build-out—that sector alone would theoretically absorb almost half of all the copper mined on Earth.

Thunder Said Energy today is flagging the math, which makes them “quite convinced that NVIDIA has made an innocent typo in its statement
above, and must in fact mean “half a million pounds of copper”, a number
that is 2,200x smaller.”

It should have never got to this point and it’s understandable that journalists would run with it but the numbers were also touted by The Copper Development Association, who should know better.

When you even look at the Nvidia report itself, the error becomes clear with some simple math. It says standard rack architectures use approximately 200kg of copper per megawatt.

• 1 GW (1,000 MW) x 200kg = 200,000kg

• 200,000kg = 200 Metric Tons.

The discrepancy between 200 tons (the reality) and 500,000 tons (the claim) is a factor of 2,500x. It is almost certain that the original document intended to say “half a million pounds”—which equates to roughly 226 tons—and a simple unit conversion error.

That this number was circulated so widely is worrisome if you’re a copper bull (as I have been for years). We are certainly headed towards undersupply and it can’t be fixed because of long build and permitting timelines for mines. But that’s not a problem for 2026 and so with prices rising and a reach-for-headlines, there is a risk that it’s over-inflated in the short term.

That’s something Goldman Sachs warned about late last year when they said any copper breakout will be short lived.

The real bull case for copper remains compelling. Between grid upgrades, EV expansion, and data center cooling systems, the upside demand is estimated at a very healthy 400,000 to 800,000 tons per year. That is a significant, market-tightening figure—but it is a far cry from the accidental “copper apocalypse” suggested by the typo.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• U.S. December budget deficit was $145B, versus $150B expected and $87B in December 2024

• U.S. December budget outlays were $629B, up from $541B in December 2024 – Treasury

• U.S. December budget receipts were $484B, down from $454B in December 2024

• U.S. December net customs receipts were $27.89B

• U.S. fiscal 2026 year-to-date deficit is $602B, compared with $711B for the same period in fiscal 2025

SUMMARY:

The U.S. ran a $145 billion budget deficit in December, slightly smaller than the $150 billion expected, but sharply wider than the $87 billion deficit recorded in December last year. The deterioration YoY was driven by a surge in federal spending, with outlays hitting a record $629 billion for the month, compared with $541 billion a year earlier. At the same time, government receipts totaled $484 billion, up from $454 billion last year, but the increase in revenue was not enough to keep pace with spending growth.

One bright spot came from customs receipts, which reached $27.9 billion, reflecting the impact of higher tariffs and import activity. On a broader fiscal basis, however, the government is still running very large deficits. Fiscal 2026 year-to-date borrowing now totals $602 billion, though that is better than the $711 billion deficit recorded over the same period in fiscal 2025.

Bottom line: Spending is accelerating faster than revenue, keeping deficits large even as tariff income helps on the margin — a backdrop that continues to support higher Treasury supply and structural pressure on U.S. debt levels.

Meanwhile, Trump is speaking in front of the Detroit Economic Club. It is the “Best of” so far.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Pres. Trump is speaking and with so many balls in the air, his comments are of market interest.

• Says we have a bad Fed Chair.
• Will pick a new Fed Chair in the next few weeks.

On Iran:

• When asked about hell on the way to Iran, says you are going to find out.
• He says it is a good idea if Americans about away from Iran.
• Says Canada wants a USMCA Trump says we don’t need it. (of course it was an agreement he made with Canada)

In other news,

The US treasury auctioned off $22 billion of 30 year bonds

The auction was met with strong demand:

• WI level at the time of the auction was 4.833%.
• High-yield came in at 4.825%
• Tail -0.8 basis points versus 6 month average of +0.5 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.42x vs 6 month average 2.34X
• Directs 21.3% vs 6 month average of 23.9%
• Indirects 66.77% versus 6 month average of 63.7%
• Dealers 11.9% versus 6 month average of 12.4%.

A look around other markets shows the major stock indices are lower. Yesterday the down S&P closed at record levels.

• Dow industrial average -0.78%
• S&P index -0.37%
• NASDAQ index -0.21%

Yields are moving lower helped by the strong auction:

• 2-year yield 3.524%, -2.3 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.737%, -2.9 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.167%, -2.0 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.828%, -1.2 basis points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump said on Truth Social that all the meetings with Iran’s officials have been cancelled and exhorted the Iranian people to keep protesting because help was on its way.

For some context, the protests in Iran represent one of the most significant challenges to the Islamic Republic’s authority in decades. The unrest was ignited by a catastrophic currency collapse, with the rial plummeting to over 1.4 million per USD, and a sharp hike in fuel prices. However, the protests quickly evolved into a broad rejection of the leadership.

Just yesterday we got reports from Axios that Trump was floating the idea of outright strikes to weaken the Iranian regime, although it was also followed by less aggressive plans. Trump has also threatened to impose 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran.

It looks like the US President wants to fully take advantage of the protests to either overthrow the current regime or force them to sign deals on US terms.

Trump’s post triggered some risk aversion in the market with US stocks falling to session lows, crude oil extending gains and US dollar erasing earlier losses.

On the daily chart above, we can see that the focus switched pretty quickly from Venezuela to Iran. Crude oil futures weakened following the capture of Maduro but then started to edge higher as the protests in Iran intensified and the US promised support to Iranian people.

The price broke out of a major falling channel and rose above the key 60.50 swing level. There’s no strong resistance until the 66.00 handle now. All eyes are on the US and Iran now as a military action would trigger a strong rally in oil prices and potentially a broad wave of risk aversion.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• August New Home sales 0.800M
• October New home sales 0.737M vs 0.7200 estimate
• September new home sales was 0.738M
• The months’ supply is virtually unchanged from the September 2025 estimate of 7.9 months, and is 15.1 percent (±15.3 percent)* below the October 2024 estimate of 9.3 months.

• Median new-home price: $392,300, down 3.3% from September and 8.0% lower than October 2024, showing clear cooling in typical home prices.

• Average new-home price: $498,000, up 3.0% from September but still 4.6% below a year ago, reflecting a mix of higher-priced homes without reversing the broader downtrend.

• Price trend: Year-over-year declines in both median and average prices confirm housing disinflation is continuing.

• Macro impact: Cooling home prices reduce shelter inflation pressure, supporting lower long-term yields and giving the Fed more room to stay patient on rate cuts.

The data is from October. The last I checked, it is January. The New-home sales data is still delayed because of the lingering effects of the 2025 U.S. government shutdown and the resulting backlog at the Census Bureau. This gap is a direct result of the shutdown halting data collection and reporting operations for several weeks. To fill that void, some third-party estimates (like the MBA Builder Application Survey) have been used, but the official Census Bureau figures remain unpublished for those months.

President Trump recently announced a directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) with the goal of pushing mortgage rates lower and improving housing affordability. Rather than the Federal Reserve buying bonds, this plan uses the large balance sheets and liquidity of the two government-sponsored enterprises to create demand for MBS, which tends to raise bond prices and reduce yields, and in theory can pull mortgage rates down modestly. The directive has already contributed to mortgage rates dipping below 6% — a level not seen in several years — providing some immediate relief to borrowers and potential refinance candidates.

While this move can narrow spreads and support rate declines in the short term, its overall impact may be limited because $200 billion represents a small fraction of the much larger MBS market. The effect is likely to be more modest than the Federal Reserve’s massive bond-buying programs during the pandemic, which drove rates sharply lower. Moreover, long-term results depend on execution, timing of purchases, and broader economic conditions.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +2.7%
• CPI M/M +0.3% vs 0.3% expected
• Prior +0.3%
• Core CPI Y/Y +2.6% vs +2.7% expected
• Prior +2.6%
• Core CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior +0.2%
• US Supercore CPI M/M +0.29% vs +0.35% prior

We have a dovish surprise here as Core CPI figures came on the lower end of the forecasts. The market was pricing 52 bps of easing by year-end but that has increased to 57 bps now.

In the markets, we have of course a classic dovish reaction with US stocks rising, US dollar falling, precious metals increasing gains and US yields dropping.

The data confirms the easing seen in November when the much lower than expected numbers were taken with a pinch of salt due to shutdown related issues.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• U.S. private employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week

The pace of job gains edged up from the prior week (revised to 11.K from 11.0K last week) . These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data are added.

Below is a look at the trend since October. The values are near recent highs suggesting growth but modest growth.

The NER Pulse is an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. These estimates are based on ADP’s finely tuned, high-frequency data. The data are seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates of real-time employment trends.

The NER Pulse, including 12 weeks of historical data, publishes every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, except weeks when ADP Research publishes the monthly National Employment Report which is built on a reference week that includes the 12th day of the month.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Nasdaq Technical Analysis: The compression points to big moves once we get a breakout
• US small business optimism rises to a 3-month high on expected better economic conditions
• What is the distribution of institutional forecasts for the US CPI?
• What Is MT4 – A Beginner’s Guide to MetaTrader 4 Trading
• Crude oil extends gains as the risk of US strikes on Iran raises the geopolitical premium
• Reminder: Earnings season kicks off in Wall Street today
• USDJPY rises to the highest level since July 2024 as snap election renewes fiscal fears
• US inflation in December likely to have rebounded sharply – Morgan Stanley
• What are the main events for today?
• FX option expiries for 13 January 10am New York cut
• Silver Technical Analysis Now
• Japan economy minister Kiuchi defends government’s fiscal policy path
• Dollar’s safe haven status continues to lose appeal – SocGen
• Japan PM Takaichi reportedly states intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house
• USD/JPY tests one-year high as yen struggles drag on in the new year

It’s been a pretty boring session in terms of news flow and market moves. The only notable news we got was early in the session when it was reported that Japanese PM Takaichi has conveyed to a ruling party executive of her intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house. That could set up for a snap election in either early or the middle of February. The next ordinary Diet session is scheduled for 23 January and that is the timing in which Takaichi is reported to be making this call. This is just a confirmation of similar reports we got on Friday,

In terms of market moves, it’s been pretty quiet all around. Crude oil has been the only outlier as tensions between US and Iran continue to increase the geopolitical risk premium and drive prices higher. Just yesterday, we got reports that Trump considered strikes on Iran and late in the evening he threatened 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran.

Other than that, not much has happened as traders await the US CPI report at 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET. Headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.7% vs 2.7% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.3% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.7% vs 2.6% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.3% vs 0.2% prior.

The Fed signalled a pause at the last policy decision by adding the line saying “in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks”.

As a reminder, the Fed projected just one rate cut this year, while the market is still betting on two, with the first one expected in June. The latest NFP report saw the unemployment rate falling to 4.4% vs 4.6% prior. The data was overall good and reaffirmed the Fed’s patient stance.

Barring another notable weakening in the labour market, inflation data is what is likely to determine the extent of Fed’s policy easing this year. In the bigger picture, the Fed’s reaction function remains dovish, so we would need strong reasons for them to consider rate hikes. For now, the worst case scenario is that they hold rates higher for longer.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.