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Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries softened in September as overseas investors trimmed their holdings for the first time in six months, newly released Treasury Department data show. The figures were delayed by the federal government’s 43-day shutdown, with the October report now slated for 18 December.

Overall foreign Treasury holdings slipped to $9.249 trillion in September, down slightly from August but still 5.5% higher than a year earlier. The headline trend masked notable divergences among major holders.

• Japan, the largest overseas creditor to Washington, continued to ramp up its buying. Its holdings rose to $1.189 trillion, the highest since August 2022, and marked a ninth straight month of accumulation.
• China, by contrast, continued its slow multi-year reduction, with holdings edging down to $700.5 billion. Analysts attribute the decline to both strategic diversification away from the U.S. dollar and Beijing’s need to support the yuan amid weaker export inflows and a slower domestic economy. China remains the third-largest holder of Treasuries, behind the U.K.
• The United Kingdom also trimmed its exposure, cutting its holdings to $865 billion from just over $904 billion in August.

On a transactions basis, foreign buying of Treasuries cooled sharply to $25.5 billion, less than half the August figure and well below May’s large $147 billion inflow, the biggest since 2022.

However, foreign appetite for U.S. risk assets strengthened elsewhere: overseas investors bought $132.9 billion in U.S. equities, a sharp turnaround from July’s equity outflows.

Despite softer Treasury demand, the U.S. still recorded net capital inflows of $190.1 billion, modestly above August, reinforcing ongoing external demand for U.S. assets.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The White House announced a series of major agreements between the United States and Saudi Arabia, marking a significant expansion in defense, trade, technology and strategic cooperation. Officials said both countries have committed to intensifying their engagement on trade issues in the coming weeks, signalling renewed momentum in the bilateral economic relationship.

Saudi Arabia to purchase nearly 300 American-made tanks, part of a broader defense package he approved that also includes future deliveries of F-35 fighter jets. The administration framed the agreements as strengthening U.S. industrial capacity while deepening security ties with Riyadh.

Beyond defense, both governments highlighted several strategic achievements, including a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, new progress on critical minerals collaboration, and the signing of a landmark memorandum of understanding on artificial intelligence. The AI pact is aimed at expanding joint research, commercial development, and secure deployment frameworks between the two countries.

Together, the agreements underscore a broadening U.S.–Saudi partnership across military, economic and technological domains.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand third quarter producer price rises not as fast as expected

Data from Stats NZ.

New Zealand PPI Outputs +0.6% q/q

• expected 0.7%, prior 0.6%

Inputs 0.2% q/q

• expected 0.9%, prior 0.6%

Slower wholesale inflation will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The bank is continuing on its easing cycle in order to address NZ economic growth cocnerns.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• US stocks close lower. Midday rally runs out of steam
• UK media reports that Reeves will consider ‘shielding’ small businesses from tax rises
• BLS :US PPI to be released on November 25
• Reuters Poll: Trump approval rating falls to 38%. His lowest since returning to the WH
• USDCAD Technicals: USDCAD falls through 61.8% retracement and tests old ceiling/floor
• Trump says he thinks he already knows the choice for Fed chair
• Trump: China is on schedule in buying US farm products
• I tried Gemini 3 and it’s impressive. Why it could be a gamechanger in markets
• Fed’s Barkin says he hopes coming data will clarity direction of economy
• Goldman Sachs thinks that 2026 will be the pain trade for the oil market
• Bank of American warns on dangerously low cash levels
• US August factory orders +1.4% vs +1.4% expected
• NAHB US November housing market index 38 vs 37 expected
• ADP weekly US employment vs –2500 last week (Confirmed)
• BOE’s Pill: Underlying inflation dynamics in UK are lower than headline suggests
• Canada Oct housing starts 232.8K vs 265.0K expected
• The USD is mixed to start the day and little changed vs the 3 major currency pairs
• investingLive European FX news wrap: The risk sentiment remains cautious

The ADP weekly US employment data showed improvement from prior week at -2.5Kfor the 4-week average vs -11.25K last week. Although still negative, it did show improvement. Later US factory orders came in as expected at 1.4% with durable goods orders also little changed from the 1st release that was released just prior to the October 1 shutdown.

The NAHB US November housing market index rose slightly to 38 from 37

Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin spoke and said that the U.S. central bank is grappling with conflicting signals regarding its dual mandate of stable inflation and maximum employment. He expressed hope that upcoming economic data would provide clarity on the economy’s direction. Barkin noted that inflation remains above the target, but consumer resistance to price increases and productivity improvements are acting as mitigating factors against further acceleration. While job growth is down, the labor supply is also slowing, which has kept unemployment stable.

Barkin described the current economic situation as “not a particularly comfortable place to be,” likening it to “docking a boat at night without a lighthouse” due to limited government data availability. He highlighted that credit card data and corporate earnings suggest healthy economic growth, yet some sectors and households are facing difficulties. Although the job market appears balanced overall, Barkin cited recent layoff announcements from major companies like Amazon, Verizon, and Target as reasons for caution, suggesting the labor market might be weaker than official numbers indicate. He emphasized that without compelling data, achieving a broad consensus among Fed officials on future policy actions, such as an interest rate cut at the upcoming December meeting, would be challenging.

The US dollar is closing the day with mixed results. Looking at the major currencies, the USD percentage change is showed:

• EUR: +0.10%
• JPY +0.18%
• GBP +0.10%
• CHF +0.48%
• CAD -0.46%
• AUD -0.22%
• NZD +0.02%

Looking at the US stock market, major indices fell for the 2nd consecutive day and the 4th time in 5 trading days

• S&P index -0.83%
• NASDAQ index -1.21%
• Dow industrial average -1.07%

Nvidia will announce earnings after the close tomorrow. The stock fell -2.81% trading today.

US yields moved lower with the two-year down -3.1 basis point at 3.578%. The 10 year was down -1.6 basis points at 4.117%.

Crude oil moved higher by $0.62 or 1.05% at $60.54. Gold prices rose by $23.15 after yesterday’s fall to $4067.86. Bitcoin rose modestly by $477 to $92,579 after breaking $90,000 briefly today

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

more to come

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Expectations I had seen centred on:

• Headline crude -0.6 mn barrels
• Distillates -1.2 mn bbls
• Gasoline -0.2 mn

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This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

• It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies
• The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. Shut down permitting.

The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

• Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies
• Whereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week’s levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.
• the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

None of this is likely to move markets around too much upon release.

The wages data from Australia will be of interest to the RBA. Officials at the Bank have realised that inflation is sticky high, an acceleration in wages beyond the Q2 result and/or beyoined estiamtes will be troublesome for them.

• This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
• I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The UK Times (gated) with the report that UK Chancellor Reeves is considering measures to shield small businesses and the self employed from tax rises.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Looking at the rest of the data for this week:

Wednesday, November 19

• 8:30 AM US International trade in goods and services. Estimate -$61.3 billion versus -$78.3 billion

Thursday, November 20

• 8:30 AM ET Nonfarm payroll estimate 55K. Unemployment rate estimate 4.3%
• 8:30 AM ET Initial jobs claims
• 10 AM ET. Existing home sales. Estimate 4.08 million versus 4.06 million last month
• 10 AM ET Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index estimate 1.0 versus -12.8 previously

Friday, November 21

• 8:30 AM US real earnings

• 9:45 AM ET Flash Manufacturing PMI (9:45am): Estimate 52.0, Last 52.5

• 9:45 AM ET Flash Services PMI (9:45am): Estimate 54.6, Last 54.8

• 10 AM ET Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (10:00am): Estimate 50.6, Last 50.3

• 10 AM ET Revised UoM Inflation Expectations (10:00am): Estimate 4.7%, Last 4.7%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows:

• Trump approval rating falls 38% which is the lowest since returning to the White House
• 26% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of cost-of-living
• 70% say that government is hiding Epstein client info.

Pres. Trump is meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince and an ABC reporter first asked about the Trump families ties to Saudi Arabia, and then the Crown Prince’s involvement in the murder of the American journalist Jamal Khashoggi and followed that up with an Epstein file question.

The exchange was not pretty.

Meanwhile, the House overwhelmingly voted to release more Epstein investigation files, and send that bill to the Senate.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD has continued it’s move to the downside (see earlier post here), and in the process moved below the 1.4000 level, the 61.8% retracement level I.39837, and into a swing area between 1.3968 and 1.3975 where buyers have now stepped in. Is the low in?

In the video above I take a look at the technicals driving this currency pair and what would now turned the bias back around?

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Maybe the market was more anxious about an election in Canada than we thought?

It’s tough to pin down why the loonie is such a standout performer today. It’s easily the strongest G10 performer today up 0.6%, doubling the Australian dollar’s gain.

It’s not a huge move but it drops the US dollar to the lowest level against the loonie since October 30. That’s the day after the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada both cut rates. Where they differed is that the BOC shifted strongly to the sidelines, a move underscored by yesterday’s CPI.

As for news flow today, it’s not great for the loonie. Risk assets are down and the US dollar is higher against the euro and yen. Fed Governor Waller was very dovish late yesterday and he’s a good bet to be Fed chair so that may be weighing on the dollar. For Canada, today’s housing starts numbers were poor.

A tailwind for the loonie is the gain in gold (+0.6%) and oil (+1.1%) but those are relatively small moves. On net, this looks like a flow driven move but it could also be a sign of improving risk appetite.

The chart looks comfortably in the late-Oct/early-Nov range but still with a bias higher.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This is good news on the trade front, but Trump also said he would tell Bessent that he wants China to speed up the pace of farm buying. So it’s not really clear what’s happening but Trump sounds happy so that’s good news.

US stocks are well off the lows, with the S&P 500 down 0.3%.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.