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The post Ex-Dividend 14/01/2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Both exports and imports surged in December to wrap up the year, as shown by the data here. Ignoring the bit of window dressing, the full-year picture tells a much more compelling story to what is happening on the trade front. From the numbers, China recorded a staggering record $1.19 trillion full-year trade surplus in 2025. It is the first time that it broke the $1 trillion mark.

So even with US tariffs, China’s trade appears unfazed as Beijing remains adamant that it will stand its ground on the trade front. So, how did China achieve this in 2025?

Well, it wasn’t just a case of finding solutions to US tariffs. I mean, it was by some extension. However, it is the fact that China has already made preparations for this outcome long before Trump pulled the trigger in April last year:

• How China has been preparing itself ahead of this tariffs eventuality with the US
• Here’s why Trump’s deal with Vietnam is a win for China

And that has helped to cushion any blow from Trump’s tariffs backlash. There is no doubt that the escalation during April to May did bring about some nervous moments. But at the end of it all, things have worked out well for Beijing all things considered.

So, what are the key details to note?

For one, auto exports powered growth amid a surge in pure electric vehicle (EV) shipments. Vehicle exports as a whole jumped by over 19% last year and within that, EV exports surged by nearly 49%. As a reminder, China is the world’s top auto exporter for a third straight year running now.

But perhaps the greater story is that even with this record trade surplus, exports to the US actually fell by 20% on the year. So, where did China shift their export momentum towards? Well, Beijing planned out a strategic focus to export more to Africa and South East Asia mostly. The former saw a near 26% rise in exports with the latter seeing an over 13% jump in exports last year. Meanwhile, exports to the EU saw an increase of a little over 6%.

Trump’s tariffs will continue to have an impact on the global trade front for sure. But at least from the numbers, China is sending a signal that they won’t be shaken down by tariffs and that they can do well to ride things out until the end of Trump’s term.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Precious metals are once again stealing the spotlight with silver surging above the $90 mark. However, there are still other key things taking place across markets too. With the rise in USD/JPY back above 159.00 overnight, the selloff in the Japanese yen currency and bond market continues to intensify.

10-year Japanese government bond yields have now surged up to above 2.18%, its highest since February 1999.

The rout is extending for a third straight month now, coinciding with Sanae Takaichi’s undertaking as prime minister. It’s very much a case of fiscal risks seeping in, as evident by the selloff in the currency as well. And market players are pricing in a higher premium in that regard in making up for the fact that the fiscal considerations are also accompanied by the government locking horns with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on monetary policy setting.

BOJ governor Ueda sneaked in a comment earlier here in making sure that markets are still aware of their intentions to stick to their guns. That despite the constant political pressure by Tokyo officials in wanting the central bank to shelve rate hikes for the time being.

30-year yields in Japan have also risen to above 3.51% today, the highest on record. And amid the scuffle depicted above, the Japanese yen is also failing to find comfort as it already loses its preferred safe haven status and shelter for investors. USD/JPY is trading up 0.1% to 159.25 currently with watchful eyes on a push towards the key 160.00 level next.

It feels like it is only a matter of time before the ministry of finance intervenes in the market. However, the question remains what exactly is their appetite to keep doing so when the fundamentals are not changing? It’s a tough ask.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Bitcoin Technical Analysis Today as Bitcoin Feels “Stuck” Despite a Bullish Backdrop
• JPM Dimon said the US economy is resilient but warned markets may be underpricing risk
• Japan 5-year JGB auction shows steady demand at higher yields
• China trade beats forecasts as 2025 surplus hits massive record
• BoJ sets out what will be discussed at a February 26 market operations meeting
• Full year trade data out from China, exports and imports both up y/y
• World Bank lifts global growth outlook but warns of weakest decade since 1960s
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.0120 (vs. estimate at 6.9807)
• Japan stocks hit records as snap election (for February 8?) talk weakens yen
• New Zealand data: ANZ commodity index falls as dairy slides, meat and wool hit records
• ICYMI from Reuters: drone strikes hit Black Sea tankers as Kazakh output drops
• More from Fed’s Barkin, sees encouraging CPI, stresses policy flexibility
• Bitcoin has hit its highest against the USD in 2 months
• Japan Reuters Tankan shows manufacturers’ sentiment slips to six-month low
• US eases Nvidia H200 export rules to China under strict conditions, shares higher
• Fed’s Barkin says inflation is easing gradually and labour market risks remain contained.
• Oil: Private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build larger than expected
• New Zealand Building Permits (November) +2.8% m/m (vs. prior –0.9%)
• US eases regulations on Nvidia H200 chip exports to China

• NZ data adds to recovery signs, but FX reaction muted

• Oil shrugs off inventory builds amid geopolitical risk

• Japan equities hit records as yen slides on election bets

• Fed’s Barkin signals patience, defends independence

• China trade hits record, tech and commodities drive imports

New Zealand data kicked things off on a firmer footing, with November 2025 building permits rising both month-on-month and year-on-year, adding to signs that activity is stabilising after a prolonged downturn. The improvement reinforces the recovery narrative building around the economy, though NZD/USD showed little enthusiasm, suggesting the good news is being overshadowed by offshore drivers.

In commodities, early focus fell on energy markets. A private survey of U.S. oil inventories released ahead of the official government data pointed to larger-than-expected builds across crude, gasoline and distillates. Ordinarily a headwind for prices, the data was offset by ongoing geopolitical risk premia, with protests in Iran and renewed threats of U.S. intervention from Donald Trump continuing to underpin crude. As the session progressed gold and silver rose strongly.

In Asia, sentiment was mixed. Japan’s latest Reuters Tankan showed business confidence easing at the start of the year, with manufacturers’ sentiment slipping to a six-month low as weak demand from major economies weighed on materials-heavy sectors. The survey reinforces a slower-growth signal for Japan’s export sector, potentially tempering expectations for near-term Bank of Japan tightening, even as domestic-facing activity remains comparatively resilient.

U.S. central bank commentary followed. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin pushed back against political pressure on the Federal Reserve, stressing the importance of institutional independence. On the economy, Barkin struck a measured tone, saying inflation remains above target but is not accelerating, while the uptick in unemployment does not appear disorderly. His remarks suggested comfort with current policy settings and reinforced the Fed’s patient, data-dependent stance.

Japanese equities then took centre stage. Stocks surged to fresh record highs as speculation intensified that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may call a snap election, with February 8 floated as a possible date. Markets have embraced the so-called “Takaichi trade,” pricing in looser fiscal policy. The Nikkei 225 broke above 54,000, while the yen weakened to around 159.40 per dollar, its softest level since July 2024, not farfrom levels that previously prompted intervention, even as 10-year JGB yields sit near 27-year highs.

In trade policy, the U.S. formally eased restrictions on advanced AI chip exports to China, publishing rules that allow conditional shipments of Nvidia’s H200 chips. The framework shifts from blanket denial to case-by-case licensing, subject to third-party testing, domestic supply safeguards and strict security requirements, keeping the reopening narrow and tightly controlled.

Finally, China trade data underscored the economy’s ongoing reliance on external demand. 2025 total trade hit a record 45.47 trillion yuan, cementing China’s position as the world’s largest goods trader. Exports rose 6.1%, imports 0.5%, while tech-related imports surged, led by strong gains in computer parts and electronic components. Commodity volumes also remained firm, with crude oil and metal ore imports rising, highlighting resilient industrial demand even as global prices softened.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) +1.55%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) +091%
• Shanghai
  Composite +1.2%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) 0%, flat

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• Dimon says US economy remains resilient

• Labour market softer but not worsening materially

• Consumers still spending; businesses broadly healthy

• Tailwinds: fiscal support, deregulation, Fed policy

• Risks: geopolitics, sticky inflation, high asset prices

Pasting as an ICYMI.

JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon said the U.S. economy remains resilient even as labour market momentum cools, arguing that consumer spending and generally healthy corporate conditions could keep activity supported for some time.

In comments released alongside the bank’s latest communications, Dimon said labour markets have softened but do not appear to be deteriorating materially. He also pointed to continued consumer spending as a key pillar of growth, suggesting households have so far absorbed higher rates and price levels without a sharp pullback.

Dimon said supportive conditions could persist, highlighting ongoing fiscal stimulus, the potential benefits from deregulation, and the Federal Reserve’s recent monetary policy settings as factors that may help keep the expansion intact. The message aligns with a broader “soft-landing” narrative: cooling but not collapsing labour dynamics, steady consumption, and businesses that remain broadly functional despite higher financing costs and lingering uncertainty.

However, Dimon warned that markets may be underpricing the downside risks. He flagged “complex geopolitical conditions” as a potential shock vector, alongside the risk that inflation remains stickier than expected. He also pointed to elevated asset prices, implying that stretched valuations could amplify volatility if the macro environment deteriorates or if policy expectations shift.

The tone was cautious rather than bearish: Dimon acknowledged the resilience in current conditions but emphasised vigilance, reflecting a view that the economy can stay firm while still being vulnerable to tail risks. For investors, his comments underscore a key tension in current pricing, a market leaning into stability and easing inflation, while major corporate leaders continue to highlight geopolitical uncertainty, inflation persistence and valuation risk as underappreciated hazards.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• Japan 5-year JGB auction clears smoothly

• Stop rate (the highest yield (or lowest price) at which the government accepts bids in a bond auction, the yield where the auction “stops.”) set at 1.65%, average yield 1.639%

• Only 0.48% of bids hit the lowest price

• Demand remains firm despite higher yields

• No immediate pressure on BOJ intervention

What it means (in brief)

• Investors are comfortable buying JGBs at current yield levels

• The low share of bids at the cheapest price suggests no stress

• Domestic buyers are still supporting the curve

• The BOJ has room to stay gradual, not reactive

Japan’s latest 5-year government bond auction delivered a solid but not spectacular outcome, reinforcing the view that demand remains intact even as yields sit near multi-year highs and the Bank of Japan continues to edge policy toward normalisation.

The Ministry of Finance sold ¥1.93 trillion of 5-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) from ¥5.94 trillion of competitive bids, with the stop rate set at 1.65%. The average yield came in at 1.639%, marginally through the stop, while the average accepted price was 99.820 versus a lowest accepted price of 99.770.

Importantly, just 0.48% of bids were accepted at the lowest price, signalling limited tail risk and suggesting that investors were willing to bid close to prevailing market levels rather than demanding a sharp concession. That metric points to orderly demand, particularly from domestic real-money accounts such as banks and insurers, which continue to anchor the intermediate part of the curve.

The bid-to-cover ratio, implied by the volume figures, remained healthy, indicating that higher absolute yield levels are still drawing interest even as expectations build that the BOJ will further scale back accommodation over time. The 5-year sector sits at the crossroads of policy expectations and curve positioning, making it a useful barometer of confidence in the BOJ’s gradual approach.

Recent volatility in the yen and rising global yields have raised questions about foreign participation, but this auction suggests domestic demand remains sufficiently strong to absorb supply without stress. That resilience reduces near-term pressure on the BOJ to step in via market operations, even as officials remain alert to disorderly moves.

Overall, the result fits the broader narrative: Japan’s bond market is adjusting to a higher-yield regime, but demand remains functional and well-distributed. Unless auctions begin to show heavier tails or weaker cover ratios, the BOJ can afford to stay patient as it continues to recalibrate policy and operations.

As a ps, yen has ticked back some gains (see chart at top iof post), this seems to have stymied yen selling sentiment for now:

• BoJ sets out what will be discussed at a February 26 market operations meeting

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• China December exports and imports beat forecasts

• Exports +6.6% y/y; imports +5.7% y/y in dollar terms

• December trade surplus $114.1bn

• 2025 trade surplus hits $1.19tn on flat imports

• US bilateral surplus eases slightly in December

China closed 2025 with a stronger-than-expected trade performance, as December exports and imports both beat forecasts, underscoring the economy’s continued reliance on external demand even as domestic momentum remains uneven.

Customs data showed December dollar-denominated exports rose 6.6% y/y, well above the Reuters poll forecast of 3.0% and slightly stronger than November’s 5.9% pace. Imports increased 5.7% y/y, sharply beating expectations for a modest 0.9% rise and accelerating from a 1.9% gain previously. As a result, China recorded a December trade surplus of $114.1 billion, marginally above the $113.6 billion consensus.

In yuan terms, exports rose 5.2% y/y in December, while imports climbed 4.4% y/y, producing a trade surplus of CNY 808.8 billion. The divergence between dollar- and yuan-denominated figures reflects currency effects over the period but does not materially change the underlying picture of firm trade flows at year-end.

For full-year 2025, China’s export performance remained resilient. Dollar-denominated exports rose 5.5% y/y, while imports were flat year-on-year, resulting in a record trade surplus of $1.189 trillion. In yuan terms, exports increased 6.1% y/y and imports edged up 0.5% y/y, with the annual trade surplus reaching CNY 8.51 trillion.

The data highlight how China’s growth model continues to lean heavily on exports amid subdued domestic demand, particularly in consumption and private investment. Strong overseas shipments have been supported by competitive pricing, supply-chain dominance in manufactured goods, and continued redirection of exports toward non-U.S. markets as trade frictions persist.

China’s December trade surplus with the United States narrowed slightly to $23.25 billion, from $23.74 billion in November. While the bilateral balance remains large, the modest easing suggests some rebalancing at the margin, even as trade tensions and tariff uncertainty continue to shape export patterns.

Overall, the latest trade figures reinforce the view that China’s external sector remains a key stabiliser for growth heading into 2026. However, the scale of the surplus also risks intensifying trade scrutiny from major partners at a time when global protectionist pressures are rising.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Full year data out from China.

2025 yuan-denominated:

• Exports +6.1% y/y
• Imports +0.5% y/y
• Two-way trade value at 45.47 trln yuan, +3.8% y/y. A record high.

Of more interest is the December trade trade, yet to re released. I’ll post separately.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• World Bank lifts global growth forecasts for 2025–26

• Global GDP seen at 2.6% in 2026, 2.7% in 2027

• US resilience drives bulk of upward revision

• Emerging market growth remains structurally weak

• 2020s shaping up as weakest growth decade since 1960s

The global economy is showing greater resilience than previously expected, but growth remains too uneven and too weak to meaningfully reduce poverty or lift long-term living standards, according to the latest Global Economic Prospects report from the World Bank.

In its semi-annual assessment, the World Bank said global GDP growth is forecast to slow modestly to 2.6% in 2026 from 2.7% in 2025, before edging back up to 2.7% in 2027. While the headline profile remains subdued, the Bank upgraded its 2026 growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points from its June outlook, and lifted its 2025 estimate by 0.4 percentage points, citing stronger-than-expected performance in advanced economies.

Around two-thirds of the upward revision reflects resilience in the United States, despite ongoing tariff-related trade disruptions. The Bank expects U.S. growth to rise to 2.2% in 2026, from 2.1% in 2025, with both figures revised higher from June. It said an early surge in imports to front-run tariffs weighed on growth in 2025, but larger tax incentives are expected to support activity in 2026, partially offsetting the drag from tariffs on investment and consumption.

Despite the improved near-term outlook, the World Bank warned the global economy is on track for its weakest decade of growth since the 1960s, a pace insufficient to prevent stagnation, joblessness and rising vulnerability across emerging markets.

“With each passing year, the global economy has become less capable of generating growth and seemingly more resilient to policy uncertainty,” said the World Bank’s chief ​economist. He cautioned that resilience and dynamism cannot diverge indefinitely without placing strain on public finances and credit markets.

Growth in emerging market and developing economies is forecast to slow to 4.0% in 2026 from 4.2% in 2025, though both projections were revised modestly higher. Excluding China, growth in this group is expected to stagnate at 3.7%, unchanged from 2025.

China’s growth is seen easing to 4.4% in 2026 from 4.9%, though both figures were revised up from June, reflecting fiscal stimulus and stronger exports to non-U.S. markets.

Overall, the report paints a picture of a global economy that is holding up better than feared, but increasingly reliant on a narrow set of growth engines.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• Reuters Tankan shows manufacturers’ mood slips to six-month low

• Manufacturing index falls to +7 from +10 in December

• Materials sectors (oil/ceramics, steel, chemicals) lead declines

• Non-manufacturers dip slightly to +32 from +33

• April outlook diverges: manufacturers improve, services worsen

Japanese business sentiment softened at the start of the year, with manufacturers’ confidence slipping to a six-month low in January as weaker demand from major economies weighed on materials-heavy sectors, according to the latest Reuters Tankan poll.

The monthly survey, which tracks the Bank of Japan’s closely watched quarterly tankan, showed the manufacturers’ sentiment index fell to +7 in January from +10 in December, marking a second consecutive decline while remaining in positive territory. The index is calculated as the share of optimistic responses minus pessimistic ones, meaning readings above zero still indicate net optimism.

The pullback was most pronounced in materials industries. The oil and ceramics sector recorded one of the steepest drops, falling sharply to zero, while steel sentiment deteriorated further into deeply negative territory and chemicals confidence also eased. Companies cited lacklustre demand conditions across key export markets, with one steelmaker pointing to weaker Chinese orders for automotive-linked goods. Others flagged softer consumer spending in the U.S. and China, while some manufacturers pointed to the drag from tariffs on exports.

By contrast, the auto and electronic machinery sectors saw only modest declines, suggesting parts of Japan’s industrial base are holding up better than materials producers exposed to the global cycle.

Sentiment among non-manufacturers edged slightly lower, with the index slipping to +32 from +33. The decline was led by wholesalers and retailers, though other areas such as information services, transport and real estate improved. Some service-sector firms also referenced a fall in Chinese tourism linked to a bilateral diplomatic row, with one department store manager reporting a sharp drop in foreign tourist sales. Others, however, said the broader inbound demand backdrop remained resilient.

Looking ahead, companies see a divergence in momentum. Manufacturers expect sentiment to improve to +10 by April, while non-manufacturers anticipate conditions deteriorating to +26, pointing to rising caution in the services economy even as factories look for a cyclical rebound.

For the Bank of Japan, the results underscore a mixed picture: manufacturing is still positive but losing steam, while domestic-facing sectors remain supported yet increasingly vulnerable to trade and tourism shocks.

—

With a weak yen, be careful of intervention risk:

• USD/JPY is surging still. Do we pencil in January 19 for Bank of Japan intervention?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Just a quick data post. Its not moving NZD/USD around much at all.

New Zealand Building Permits (November)

+2.8% m/m

• prior –0.9%
• for the y/y, +13.5%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A couple of headlines, should make export to China easier:

• US eases regulations on Nvidia H200 chip exports to China-Federal Register
• Us says before exports of Nvidia H200 chips to China, shipments will be reviewed by third-party testing lab to confirm technical AI capabilities –Commerce Department

I’ll post more detail separately as it becomes available.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.