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Australian Household Spending in October 2025 +1.3% m/m

• expected +0.6%, prior +0.3%

+5.6% y/y

• expected +4.6%, prior +5.1%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tesla’s UK sales dropped sharply in November, with registrations falling 19% year-on-year to 3,784 units, according to preliminary data from research group New AutoMotive.

The decline follows an even steeper halving of sales in October and reflects Tesla’s continued loss of momentum in Europe as Chinese EV makers, led by BYD, expand rapidly with cheaper, newer models. BYD’s UK registrations more than tripled last month.

Analysts say Tesla is struggling to draw buyers in a more competitive EV landscape, where legacy automakers and Chinese rivals are offering more compelling price points and upgraded designs. The brand has also faced reputational headwinds linked to CEO Elon Musk’s political profile, contributing to erosion in market share.

Across the broader UK car market, total new registrations slipped 6.3% year-on-year to 146,786 units in November, highlighting softer demand heading into year-end.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• US stocks close marginally higher
• Trump says Witkoff meeting with Putin ‘reasonably good’. Trump adds no substantive details
• Tomorrow in the US the Challenger job cuts and US unemployment claims
• Crude oil futures settle at $58.95
• Gasparino: Wall Street does not like Hassett.
• Rep Stefanik: Calls House Speaker an ineffective leader who is losing control over the GOP
• European stock indices close mixed. German DAX and UK’s FTSE 100 close lower
• Treasury’s Lavorgna: Expecting more growth in 2026 driven by measures from Trump tax act
• EIA crude oil inventories build of 0.574M versus a drawdown of -0.821 million estimate
• Microsoft: We did not lower our AI sales quotas
• Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick: Prices don’t move unless tariffs are above 50%
• US ISM nonmanufacturing PMI 52.6 versus 52.1 estimate
• US S&P global services PMI for November 54.1 versus 55.0 preliminary
• Canada S&P services PMI 44.3 versus 50.5 last month
• Treasury Secretary Bessent: Trump has normalized the idea of a 15-20% tariff
• US September industrial production 0.1% versus 0.0% expected
• Microsoft lowers AI sales quotas.
• USDINR Technicals: The upside run in USDINR continues. Stretches toward the Fib extension
• ECB’sLagarde: Growth in economic activity should benefit from increased household spending
• US import prices 0.0% versus 0.1% expected. Export prices 0.0% versus 0.1% expected
• ADP National employment for November -32K vs 10K est.
• Stocks are higher, yields are lower and the USD is lower. How about the technicals?
• investingLive European FX news wrap: Swiss CPI misses again, USD falls as yields retreat

The USD is closing lower vs all the major currencies with the GBPUSD the biggest mover. The USD is still lower vs the CAD but only by -0.12%.

A snapshot of the changes vs the major currencies shows:

• EUR: -0.38%
• JPY -0.40%
• GBP -1.04%
• CHF -0.37%
• CAD -0.12%
• AUD -0.59%
• NZD -0.66%

The move lower was helped by weaker than expected ADP employment numbers. ADP reported a weaker-than-expected labor print for November, showing a 32,000 decline in private payrolls versus expectations for a modest gain. The prior month was revised up to 47,000, but November saw broad weakness across both goods-producing (-19K) and services (-13K) sectors. Small businesses remained under significant strain with a 120,000 job loss, marking negative readings in six of the past seven months, while medium and large firms added 51K and 39K, respectively. Industry detail showed strength in education (+30K) and leisure/hospitality (+13K), contrasted by notable declines in manufacturing (-18K), information (-20K), and professional/business services (-26K). Wage growth indicators continued to cool, with job changers seeing pay rise 4.4% (down from 4.5%) and job stayers rising 6.3% (down from 6.7%). Overall, the report pointed to a softening labor market, particularly among small firms and cyclical sectors.

In other data releases:

• The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI edged up to 52.6 in November from 52.4, slightly above expectations and signaling continued, modest expansion in the services sector. Business activity improved to 54.5, and employment strengthened to 48.9, its best reading since May—though still below the 50 contraction line. New orders softened notably to 52.9, the weakest since September, while prices paid eased sharply to 65.4 from 70.0, suggesting some cooling in input inflation pressures. Other components showed broad stabilization, with backlogs, export orders, and imports all improving from the prior month. Respondent commentary pointed to persistent tariff-related uncertainty, mixed economic conditions, margin pressures, affordability challenges, and uneven demand across industries, though pockets of optimism remain as supply chains stabilize and some sectors finish the year with solid activity.
• U.S. industrial production in September rose 0.1%, matching a modest improvement but coming in just above expectations, while prior-month figures were revised notably lower, painting a softer underlying picture. Manufacturing output was flat on the month after an upward revision the prior month, underscoring uneven momentum across factory activity. Capacity utilization held at 75.9%, well below the 77.3% expected, reflecting continued slack in industrial capacity despite stable headline output. Looking through the monthly noise, industrial production increased at a 1.1% annual rate in the third quarter, though the downward revisions to August suggest the sector entered the fall period with less strength than previously reported. Overall, the report showed a mixed performance: modest growth in September offset by weaker historical data and continued underuse of manufacturing capacity.

The major stock indices close marginally higher led by the Dow industrial average with a gain of 0.80%. The broader S&P index was up by 0.30% while the NASDAQ index was up a marginal 0.17%.

In the US debt market, yields are lower in reaction to the weaker ADP report

• 2-year yield 3.485%, -3.0 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.629%, -3.0 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.063%, -2.5 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.728%, -1.2 basis points

Crude oil is higher by about $0.50 at $59.11. Gold is up $3.60 at $4209.37. The point rose an additional $2200.to $93,510. On Monday, the low price reached $83,814.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Tomorrow in the US session, the Challenger job cuts will be released. During most months it is a prelude to the jobs report but because of the shutdown, there will be no jobs report until December 15 after the FOMC rate decision on December 10. Nevertheless like the ADP report, it will give some indication of the US job situation.

Also to be released will be the unemployment claims. They are up-to-date and are expected to come in at 219K versus 216K last week.

Below is a list of other economic releases in the European and US session:

• 3:00 am CHF: Unemployment Rate (Fcst 3.0%, Prev 3.0%)

• 3:30 am CHF: Manufacturing PMI (Fcst 48.9, Prev 48.2)

• 4:30 am GBP: Construction PMI (Fcst 44.5, Prev 44.1)

• 5:00 am EUR: Retail Sales m/m (Fcst 0.0%, Prev -0.1%)

• Tentative EUR: French 10-yr Bond Auction (Prior 3.43% | 2.1)

• 7:30 am USD: Challenger Job Cuts y/y (Prev 175.3%)

• 7:45 am GBP: MPC Member Mann Speaks

• 8:30 am USD: Unemployment Claims (Fcst 219K, Prev 216K)

• 10:00 am CAD: Ivey PMI (Fcst 53.6, Prev 52.4)

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

We get the first indications of Australian Q4 2025 trade data with the October numbers today. While they are marked as being of high importance I’m not expecting the release to impact too much on the AUD and other Australian markets.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Charlie Gasparino is X’ing:

Despite the headline, Hassett has extended his lead on Polymarkets. The number was about 67% yesterday. Number 2 on the list is Kevin Warsh.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Republican representative Elise Stefanik, an ally to Pres Trump is criticizing House Speaker Mike Johnson:

• He is an ineffective leader who is losing control over the GOP conference heading into the midterm elections
• He certainly wouldn’t have the votes to be speaker if a roll call vote was made tomorrow.
• Believes that a majority of the Republicans would vote for new leadership. It is widespread.

Republican Matt Van Epps won Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, defeating Democrat Aftyn Behn by roughly nine points in a race that drew national attention. Although the GOP held the seat, the margin was far narrower than expected—Donald Trump carried the district by more than 20 points in 2024, and former Representative Mark Green had won by a similar margin.

This substantial Democratic overperformance has raised eyebrows, suggesting potential vulnerability for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms. The contest became a test of voter sentiment, attracting significant outside spending and high-profile support. While Republicans avoided losing a traditionally safe district, the result serves as a warning sign that they may face tighter races even in strongholds, whereas Democrats may feel increasingly emboldened to compete more aggressively across the map.

The problem for the Democrats is the leadership. Who will step up.

The problem for the Republicans is has the sheen come off Pres. Trump despite the arguments from Trump ally that it is the speaker Someone has to be blamed and it is Mike Johnson.

I would prefer both sides coming off the extremes, move in the middle and unite vs divide. Then let the policy fall where it falls without being an “us vs them” but instead what is good for all of America to move forward. The best teams, are united teams.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Treasury’s Lavorgna is speaking to Reuters and says:

• Expecting more growth in 2026 driven by measures emerging from the Trump tax act.

• Already starting to see the capex cycle turn up, signaling improving investment momentum.

• Full expensing rules for factories expected by year-end, supporting business investment and equipment spending.

• Trump policies focused more on supply-side stimulus compared with Biden’s approach.

• President takes affordability concerns seriously, highlighting cost-of-living as a policy priority.

• Monetary policy has been to theo tight.

• We won’t need a 50 year mortgage if the Fed was lower rates.

• 2000 rebate of tariffs would require congressional approval, uncertain of its status

• We may not need it if the growth backdrop is as strong as I think it will be.

• It appears we moved close to 4% GDP growth in Q3.

• Don’t see any tariffs as being inflationary, inflation is rooted in services..

• Seeing tariffs absorbed in margins.

• Expecting on de minimis inflation effects from the tariffs next year.

• AI is complementary to existing workforce.

• We still need skilled trades despite AI

• We need the Fed to help, but the economy will turn.

• Trump is keeping us in suspense on timing of Fed appointment (although is he really?)

Of note…the helicopter money pronouncements (see post from yesterday) sound great, but they also can be politically motivated. The $2000 rebate to all American’ under threshold sounds good taken from tariff money sound great but as Lavornia points out, it is not a done deal or may not even be possible. I don’t get how on one hand, tariffs are reducing our deficits but then are being paid out to appease voters (inclusive of the farmers who have suffered). That has always been part of the calculus.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

For what it is worth, Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang has been seen entering Speaker the house Johnson’s office. Look for those buy orders from Capitol Hill (/S).

Shares of Nvidia are down $0.23 or -0.13% at $181.24. The high price today reached $182.45. The low was at $179.11. Nvidia’s 100 hour moving averages at $183.60 and moving lower.

Yesterday the price extended above that moving average level briefly, but then backed off and closed below the moving average on the day. If the technical bias is to turn more to the upside, the price needs to get and stay above that level. Absent that, and the sellers are more in control.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Crude oil inventory build of 0.574M versus drawdown of -0.821 million estimate
• gasoline oil inventory 4.5M barrels versus build of 1.468 million estimate
• distillates oil inventory 2.1M barrels versus build of 0.707 million estimate.
• Cushing drawdown of -0.457M vs prev -0.068M

The private data released late yesterday showed:

• Crude +2480K
• Gasoline +3100K
• Distillates +2880K.

The price of crude oil is trading up $0.80 at $59.48. The high price today reached $59.64. The low price was at $58.37.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

For those looking for the oil inventory data, there seems to be some technical difficulties in publishing the weekly data. There is some on confirmed reports that the oil inventory grew by 0.574M but that is once again unconfirmed.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

CNBC reports:

• The Information report that Microsoft lowered their sales quota is not true
• Microsoft did lower expectations for how quickly it can get its customers to spend on newer products, specifically agents

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.