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The post Ex-Dividend 24/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down -2.17%, Shanghai Composite down -1.88%, Hang Seng down -2.16% ASX down -1.40%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,055.56 (-0.09%), Silver at $94.530 (-1.55%), Brent Oil at $62.58 (-1.26%), WTI Oil at $58.18 (-1.39%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.094, UK 10-year yield at 4.5890, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7194

News & Data:

• (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change  119K  to 53K expected
• (USD) Unemployment Rate  4.4%  to 4.3% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are sharply lower on Friday, tracking the negative cues from Wall Street as investors dial back expectations for a U.S. Fed rate cut in December. The long-delayed September jobs report showed higher unemployment alongside stronger-than-expected job growth, prompting fresh concerns about inflation and monetary policy. Fears of an AI-driven valuation bubble also continue to weigh on sentiment. This follows a mostly higher finish for Asian markets on Thursday.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 has reversed the prior session’s gains and is trading well below 8,450, dragged down by broad weakness in mining, energy and technology stocks. Major miners such as BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are all sharply lower, while tech names like Block and Zip are also under pressure. Banks and gold miners are seeing notable declines as well. Shares of Accent Group and Lovisa are tumbling after disappointing updates. Economic data was more upbeat, with Australia’s services and manufacturing PMIs improving in November.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is also sharply lower, falling more than 2 percent as heavyweight tech stocks slump. SoftBank and Advantest are among the biggest laggards, while automakers Toyota and Honda are posting modest gains. Inflation data for October met expectations, while the country’s trade deficit narrowed slightly.

Elsewhere, markets in South Korea, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong are firmly lower, while Wall Street ended Thursday deep in the red as major U.S. indices reversed early gains and finished near session lows.

Upcoming Events:

• 02:45 PM GMT – USD Flash Manufacturing PMI
• 02:45 PM GMT – USD Flash Services PMI

The post Friday 21th November 2025: Asian Markets Tumble as Rate Cut Hopes Fade and Tech Sell-Off Deepens first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Equities Drop Again After Employment Data – Nasdaq down 2.15%

US stocks slid again in yesterday’s session, with all three major indices finishing firmly in the red. The pullback came as the initial boost from Nvidia’s upbeat earnings faded and investors refocused on the mixed September jobs report, which showed stronger headline job creation but an unwelcome rise in the unemployment rate. The Dow Jones dropped 0.84% to close at 45,752, while the S&P 500 fell 1.56% to 6,538, and the Nasdaq led the declines with a 2.15% fall to 22,078. Treasury yields fell after the numbers, with the 2-year yield dropping 5.9 basis points to 3.533%, and the 10-year slipping 5.2 basis points to 4.084%. Despite lower yields, the US dollar remained firm, with the DXY edging up 0.05% to 100.23, keeping it near its strongest levels of the year. Commodities were weaker across the board. Brent fell 0.58% to US$63.13, while WTI crude declined 0.83% to US$58.76, as ongoing US diplomatic pressure for progress in the Russia–Ukraine conflict continued to weigh on sentiment. Gold had a rare quiet day, inching up just 0.02% to US$4,077.19 by the NY close, marking one of its most range-bound sessions in weeks.

Mixed Employment Data Locks in Live December Fed Meeting

The first US employment numbers for a couple of months came in mixed overnight, with the headline Non-Farms employment change printing at +119k, smashing expectations, which had been around the +60k mark. However, the Average Hourly Earnings number came in at 0.2% against an expected 0.3%, and the Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.4%. We had mixed reactions across financial markets, with Treasury yields pulling back after the data and stocks slumping, while the dollar held its ground against the majors to push toward annual highs. Fed rate-cut expectations had dipped to around 30% on the previous day, but they have blipped up to near 40%, which means that the Fed meeting in December at the moment falls very much in the “live” category. We will have more data following in the coming weeks, but if we see more mixed messages from the figures, then expect a very turbulent market day on December 10th.

Busy Day to End the Trading Week

It shapes up as a busy end to the trading week, with a heavy run of data scheduled across the European and US sessions and several central bank speakers expected to provide further clues on policy direction. The Asian session is relatively quiet, but the data starts to come thick and fast as soon as London comes in. There are a raft of Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers due out today, with data from France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the US all likely to move markets. The London session also sees the release of the latest UK Retail Sales data (exp. -0.1% m/m). The New York session also sees Retail Sales numbers out of Canada, with the market expecting the headline to show a 0.7% month-on-month decline and the Core data a 0.5% pullback. We also hear from several central bankers during the course of the latter two sessions, with the SNB’s Martin Schlegel and the ECB’s Christine Lagarde featuring earlier in the day, and Fed members Barr, Miran, Jefferson, and Logan all speaking later on.

The post General Market Analysis – 21/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior 52.3
• Manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs 49.2 expected
• Prior 49.7
• Composite PMI 50.5 vs 51.8 expected
• Prior 52.2

Key Findings:

• UK private sector growth eases in November, while
  output price inflation softens to 59-month low

Comment:

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P
Global Market Intelligence:

“November’s flash PMI surveys brought disappointing news on
the UK economy. Economic growth has stalled, job losses have
accelerated, and business confidence has deteriorated.

“The PMI is broadly consistent with no change in GDP in
November and a meagre 0.1% quarterly pace of growth so far in
the fourth quarter.

“Some of this malaise has been blamed on paused spending
decisions ahead of the Autumn Budget, but there’s a real
chance this pause may turn into a downturn. The drop in
confidence about the year ahead reflects growing concerns
that business conditions will remain tough in the coming
months, largely linked to speculation that further demand-
dampening measures will be introduced in the Budget.

“Concerns over the inflation outlook will meanwhile be further
assuaged by a marked drop in selling price inflation to the
lowest for nearly five years. Faced by weak demand and
intensifying competition, firms are cutting prices to win sales.
Prices charged for goods fell at the sharpest rate since 2016,
and service providers are likewise reporting much-reduced
pricing power. While this is good news for inflation, it’s bad news
for business profits, hiring and investment.

“The PMI data therefore suggest the policy debate will shift
further away from inflation worries toward the need to support
the struggling economy, hence adding to the chances of
interest rates being cut in December.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior 53.0
• Manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs 50.2 expected
• Prior 50.0
• Composite PMI 52.4 vs 52.5 expected
• Prior 52.5
• Full report here

Key Findings:

• November sees further solid expansion of eurozone business activity

Comment:

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“For months the manufacturing sector of the eurozone has been marooned in a no -man’s land of directionlessness.
Production has picked up slightly since March of this year, but the overall situation has not improved during this period.
Companies continue to face weak demand, which is reflected in a slight decline in new orders.

In this environment,
companies have reduced their inventories of both intermediate goods and finished goods even more sharply than in the
previous month, meaning that the inventory cycle continues to show no signs of turning upward. We are still several months,
and possibly even several quarters, away from sustained expansion in the manufacturing sector.
In the manufacturing sector, Germany and France are moving in the same direction – unfortunately, it is the wrong one, with
the index falling markedly in both.

In the two largest economies in the eurozone, companies are suffering from declining
order intake. In terms of production, Germany remains just within the expansion range, while in France the contraction in
output has recently accelerated. If the political situation were to stabilize in the long term, companies would probably feel
liberated to invest more, resulting in growing production. However, the political situation remains complicated, meaning that
the eurozone is unlikely to receive any positive impetus from this quarter in the short term.
The service sector in the eurozone is a ray of hope.

Although business activity growth in Germany has slowed significantly,
French service providers have returned to growth. All in all, the eurozone is more or less maintaining its relatively robust
expansion rate. Although the manufacturing sector is dampening growth performance, the high weight of the service sector
in the overall economy means that the eurozone as a whole should grow faster in the final quarter than in the third quarter.

The acceleration of cost inflation in the service sector is unlikely to go down well with the ECB. However, at the same time,
sales price inflation in this sector has slowed, so that, on balance, the headaches for monetary policymakers, who are
paying particular attention to the rate of inflation among service providers, should be limited. There is no reason to tighten
monetary policy. We expect interest rates to remain unchanged in December.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior 49.6
• Services PMI 52.7 vs 54.0 expected
• Prior 54.6
• Composite PMI 52.1 vs 53.5 expected
• Prior 53.9
• Full report here

Key Findings:

• Business activity growth softens in November

Comment:

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“These figures are a major setback for Germany. In the manufacturing sector, the headline PMI has fallen deeper into
contraction territory and now signals a slowdown in this part of the economy. Although production is slightly higher than in
the previous month, new orders have now declined sharply after broadly stabilising in October. At least there is still growth in
the service sector, but hopes that the rate of expansion would pick up speed here have vanished into thin air with the
marked decline in the index. Overall, the German economy is limping towards marginal growth at best in the fourth quarter.

“Production in the manufacturing sector rose for the ninth month in a row, but momentum has been slowing for two months
now. The slump in new orders, especially from abroad, is also an indication that the final month of the year will more likely
see a downward rather than an upward trend.

“Manufacturing companies are looking to the future with significantly more confidence and expect to have increased their
production in a year’s time. This is likely to be driven by hopes that relatively high growth can be expected in the coming year
in the defence industry and in machinery used for civil engineering infrastructure projects. These are the areas where the
government plans to channel debt-financed funds.

“Growth in the service sector has cooled, but new business has ticked up for the second month running, and hiring
continues, just more cautiously than before. Overall, moderate growth is expected in the service sector in the current
quarter.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior 48.
• Manufacturing PMI 47.8 vs 49.0 expected
• Prior 48.8
• Composite PMI 49.9 vs 48.1 expected
• Prior 47.7
• Full report here

Key Findings:

Comment:

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior 101
• Services sector confidence 98 vs 95 prior

A little miss here but it’s not a market-moving report and it certainly won’t change anything for the ECB.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Can’t comments on expected size of additional bond issuance to fund the latest package
• Believe markets have stabilised after various announcements
• Various factors contribute to market developments
• Don’t believe latest package is sufficiently big to ignite demand-driven inflation

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior +0.5%; revised to +0.7%
• Retail sales +0.2% vs +1.5% y/y expected
• Prior +1.5%; revised to +1.0%
• Retail sales ex autos, fuel -1.0% vs -0.3% m/m expected
• Prior +0.6%; revised to +0.7%
• Retail sales ex autos, fuel +1.2% vs +2.5% y/y expected
• Prior +2.3%; revised to +1.7%
• Full report here

These are all big misses and the initial reaction saw of course the GBP falling across the board.

From the agency: “The quantity of goods bought (volume) in retail sales is estimated to
have risen by 1.1% in the three months to October 2025 compared with
the three months to July 2025. Clothing store sales rounded off a strong
performance in those three months, peaking in September, while computer
and telecommunication retailers rose across September and October 2025.”

“Retail
sales volumes are estimated to have fallen by 1.1% in October 2025,
following an increase of 0.7% in September 2025 (revised up from a 0.5%
rise in our previous publication) and of 0.5% in August 2025 (revised
down from a 0.6% rise in our previous publication). This was the first
monthly fall since May 2025. Supermarkets, clothing, and mail order
retailers fell in October 2025, which some retailers attributed to
consumers delaying their spending in the lead up to Black Friday.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the government is prepared to issue new bonds to help fund the latest stimulus package if stronger tax revenues fall short, but stressed that overall JGB issuance will still be smaller than last year’s total.

Takaichi reiterated that Japan must pursue sustainable public finances through economic growth, signalling her administration’s intention to balance near-term fiscal support with longer-term consolidation.

—

The commitment to keep JGB issuance below last year’s levels may help steady debt-market sentiment, though reliance on new bonds underscores lingering fiscal pressure.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Yen finally finding some small bids as Japan’s Cabinet approves 21tln stimulus package
• U.S. charges four in Nvidia chip-smuggling case, revives calls for chip tracking
• Bitcoin, Ether continue to slide – crypto crush
• Ueda:inflation to converge around our target sometime from latter half of next fiscal year
• Offshore yuan not artificially cheap, Mizuho says, citing stronger regional positioning
• BoJ Gov Ueda says prospect of economy, price forecasts materializing increasing (rate hike
• Recap – Japan export rebound continues in October despite lingering U.S. weakness
• Japan says debt ratio to edge lower as govt, BOJ work toward stable inflation
• Equities here in APAC taking a hit, as you’d expect
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0875 (vs. estimate at 7.1154)
• EU explores investment in Australian resources as trade talks set to restart
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says weak yen pushes up import prices, factor in higher CPI
• Japan preliminary manufacturing PMI for November 48.8 (prior 48.2)
• Bessent wants more Fed rate cuts (Yes, I know, Bessent parroting Trump is not news)
• Japanese finance minister Katayama – another attempt at verbal intervention yen support
• UK consumer confidence falls ahead of budget as households brace for tax hikes
• Singapore lifts 2025 growth forecast after Q3 GDP beats expectations
• Japan exports beat expectations in October as Asia and EU demand pick up
• Fed’s Paulson urges caution on December rate cut decision as job risks edge higher
• Japan fin min with some verbal intervention to try to support the yen
• Japan November Core CPI 3.0% (3.0% expected, prior 2.9%)
• Recap – Japan readies ¥21.3tn (USD 135bn) stimulus, largest since Covid
• ICYMI – Morgan Stanley drops December Fed cut call after strong September payroll rebound
• ICYMI – Trump’s latest cave in, slashes tariffs on Brazil. Every day brings a TACO story.
• Top Bitcoin whale sells entire $1.3bn BTC stack as sentiment fades
• Australian preliminary November PMIs: Manufacturing 51.6 (prior 49.7)
• investingLive Americas market news wrap: Ugly price action in a big stock market reversal
• New Zealand October trade improves, both imports and exports higher m/m
• $20bn extra bail out for Argentina – banks say No
• Japan trying some verbal yen intervention after the close, can’t blame ’em for trying
• The major indices tumble as buyers that the open sell into the close
• Fed’s Goolsbee is uneasy about cutting interest rates in the face of too-high inflation
• Nasdaq and the S&P 500 break the October low

Major FX traded in subdued, narrow ranges. Even the yen — the market’s focal point thanks to a wave of data, policy hints and fresh fiscal headlines — barely budged, with USD/JPY holding around 157.46, until a final dip.

Japan’s November flash PMIs were mixed:

• Manufacturing remained in contraction for a fifth month at 48.8, an improvement from 48.2.

• Services held firm at 53.1, marking continued resilience.

• The composite PMI rose to 52.0, its eighth month in expansion.

Inflation firmed modestly, staying well above the 2% target on all three measures:

• Core CPI: 3.0% y/y (prior 2.9%)

• Headline CPI: 3.0% y/y

• Core-core (ex-food & energy): 3.1%

All readings aligned with expectations and support the case for near-term BOJ tightening.

Exports were a bright spot. Shipments rose 3.6% y/y, beating the 1.1% consensus and marking a second month of gains, helped by resilient demand in Asia and a softer yen. Exports to the U.S. fell 3%, the seventh straight monthly decline, though the tariff impact appears more limited than feared.

Governor Ueda emphasised that currency volatility is increasingly feeding into import prices and inflation expectations. He said the BOJ will scrutinise FX pass-through closely and reiterated that the bank’s baseline remains further rate hikes if the economy and inflation track forecasts. Ueda
noted that the likelihood of those projections materialising is
increasing, reinforcing expectations of further, gradual policy
normalisation.

The yen finally gained a little more on headlines that the cabinet approved a ¥21.3 trillion stimulus package, Japan’s largest since the pandemic, with ¥17.7 trillion in fresh spending. Investors remain wary of the heavy funding requirements.

—

EU Trade Commissioner Maros Šefčovič said Brussels is exploring equity stakes, long-term offtake agreements, and joint investments in Australian resources projects as part of renewed trade-deal momentum.

He expects another round of Australia–EU FTA talks early next year, with critical minerals emerging as a central pillar. Australian equities underperformed, falling to a five-month low.

–

Singapore’s economy beat expectations in Q3, prompting the government to lift its 2025 GDP forecast to ~4.0% (from 1.5–2.5%). Stronger global demand and resilient regional growth drove the upgrade.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (the country’s central bank) said its policy stance remains appropriate with the output gap positive this year and normalising in 2026.

–

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned against front-loading rate cuts, saying inflation has been “steady at best, and worse by some measures.” He remains uneasy about adding a third consecutive cut in December and stressed the Fed needs more clarity before easing further.

–

Crypto fell again. Bitcoin whale Owen Gunden, the world’s eighth-largest individual BTC holder, fully liquidated his 11,000-BTC stack (~$1.3bn) over the past month, delivering a psychological blow to sentiment.

Oil remained heavy amid broader risk caution.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) -2.4%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) -2.1%
• Shanghai
  Composite -1.9%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) -1.6%, hit five month lows

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.