Articles

US is to allow Nvidia H200 chip exports to China.

• Some analysts view such a move as a “strategic win-win,” arguing that allowing H200 shipments would sustain China’s reliance on U.S. AI infrastructure — and potentially slow down the adoption of domestic alternatives
• The H200 is more capable than the chip China is currently allowed to buy (the H20), which gives it technical appeal for high-demand applications (large-model training, inference, data-center use cases)

Although good news, Jensen Huang, recently said he is not sure China would accept H200 even if restrictions are eased — Beijing may prefer home-grown chips or chips already certified under export rules. Chinese firms and regulators appear increasingly focused on domestic AI-chip makers (like Cambricon Technologies) and building self-sufficiency. There’s growing pressure—both economic and political—on companies not to rely solely on foreign hardware.

Nvidia shares have moved higher and are up $3.90 or 2.15% at $186.46.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

U.S. Treasury sold $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.614%.

• WI level at the time of the auction was 3.622%
• Tail -0.8 basis points versus -0.2 basis points 6 month average
• bid to cover 2.64X vs 6 month average of 2.63X
• Directs 19.0% versus 6 month average of 24.5%.
• Indirects 71.97% versus 6 month average of 62.5%
• Dealers 9.03% vs 6 month average of 13.1%

Auction Grade B+

The 3 year note auction was met with strong demand from international buyers. The domestic buyers were less than average in the bid to cover was near the average. More good news was that the tail was -0.8 basis points which was much less than the -0.2 basis point average over the last 6 months.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Ukraine Zelenskyy is speaking and says:

• Talks in London were productive.
• There is a small progress toward peace.
• Ukraine – Europe plan proposals should be ready by tomorrow to share with the US
• Ukraine cannot give up land
• The US is trying to find a compromise on this issue

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $50 billion of 3 year notes at the top of the hour. The auction is the 1st of 3 coupon auctions this week with the treasury also auctioning $39 billion of 9 year 11 month bonds tomorrow at 1 PM. On Thursday they will complete the auctions with the sale of $22 billion of 29 year and 11 month bonds.

The 6 month averages of the major components for the 3 year note auction will be compared to the actual results. Below are the averages for those components:

• Tail: -0.2 basis points.
• Bid to cover 2.63X
• Directs (domestic buyers) 24.5%
• Indirects (international buyers 62.5%)
• Dealers 13.1%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDINR corrected lower last week, breaking below its 100-hour moving average. However, sellers were unable to extend the decline toward the next key target—the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the mid-November low. That failure allowed buyers to regroup and push the pair higher, lifting it back above the 100-hour MA, where dips over the past day or two have consistently found support.

As long as the price holds above the 100-hour MA, currently near 89.99, the short-term bias remains tilted in favor of the bulls. For sellers to gain any traction, they must push the price back below that level. A break lower would open the door toward 89.79, followed by the rising 200-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement near 89.656—levels that would need to be broken to shift control back to the downside.

Until that happens, buyers remain firmly in control. On the topside, the high from last week at 90.4370 is the next major target. Above that, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 90.5700 stands as a key objective for bullish continuation.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major European indices are closing mixed to start the new trading week. A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX, +0.11%
• France’s CAC, -0.18%
• UK’s FTSE 100 -0.27%
• Spain’s Ibex, +0.07%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.08%.

As London/European traders come to the conclusion of the trading day, the US major indices are all negative, and near session lows:

• Dow industrial average -149 points or -0.31% at 47805.
• S&P index -22.51 points or -0.33% at 6848.18.
• NASDAQ index -50 points or -0.21% at 23527.

The small-cap Russell 2000 is bucking the trend and trading up 9.73 points or 0.39% at 2531.12.

Some losers today include:

• Netflix (NFLX): 95.73, down 4.50 (-4.49%)

• Boston Scientific (BSX): 93.29, down 4.22 (-4.33%)

• Lululemon Athletica (LULU): 182.34, down 7.67 (-4.04%)

• Intel (INTC): 39.76, down 1.65 (-3.99%)

• Tesla (TSLA): 438.38, down 16.62 (-3.65%)

• Baker Hughes (BKR): 47.60, down 1.60 (-3.25%)

• Fortinet (FTNT): 84.18, down 2.74 (-3.15%)

• Macy’s (M): 22.17, down 0.68 (-2.98%)

• Nike (NKE): 64.15, down 1.71 (-2.59%)

• Intuit (INTU): 656.63, down 17.00 (-2.52%)

• Stryker (SYK): 354.70, down 9.32 (-2.56%)

• Lennar (LEN): 121.16, down 2.75 (-2.22%)

• Airbnb (ABNB): 121.72, down 2.61 (-2.10%)

• Live Nation Entertainment (LYV): 136.42, down 2.91 (-2.09%)

• Palo Alto Networks (PANW): 194.74, down 4.10 (-2.06%)

Some winners today include:

• Paramount Skydance (PSKY): 14.37, up 1.00 (+7.48%)

• Celsius (CELH): 43.68, up 1.62 (+3.85%)

• Robinhood Markets (HOOD): 136.43, up 4.48 (+3.40%)

• Ciena Corp (CIEN): 208.31, up 6.61 (+3.27%)

• Corning (GLW): 88.47, up 2.50 (+2.91%)

• Chewy (CHWY): 34.40, up 0.93 (+2.76%)

• Broadcom (AVGO): 400.90, up 10.67 (+2.73%)

• Micron (MU): 243.43, up 6.21 (+2.62%)

• Strategy (MSTR): 182.71, up 3.73 (+2.08%)

Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher:

• 2-year yield 3.604%, +4.0 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.767%, +5.2 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.181%, +4.3 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.825%, +3.3 basis points

looking at other markets:

• Crude oil is trading down $0.85 at $59.20.
• Gold is trading down $1.50 at $4195.77.
• Silver is trading down $0.33 at $57.95.
• Bitcoin is trading up $42 and $90,441, but is up from Friday’s close of $89,348

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The BLS is reporting that

• It will not publish the October PPI report
• The November report will be published on January 14, 2026
• They will also not produce October 2025 import and export price reports
• The November import export price indices will be published January 15.

The BLS announced earlier that the CPI data for November will be released on December 18, 2025. The October CPI was canceled.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• According to a filing, the Ellison family (PSKY) and RedBird committed to backstop 100% of the USD 40.7bn equity capital required for the deal.

• The structure with Ellison family eliminates any potential CFIUS (foreign investment) review risk for the proposed WBD transaction.

• If the proposed deal is terminated under certain circumstances, Paramount (PSKY) would pay WBD a USD 5bn termination fee.

• If the deal is terminated under other circumstances, WBD would pay a termination fee of approximately USD 2.9bn.

• Tencent (0700 HK) will no longer participate as a financing partner in the transaction.

• New debt financing agreements were entered into with Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), and Apollo (APO) for up to USD 54bn in principal.

• Jared Kushner is said to be involved in helping finance the bid for Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD), according to Axios citing a regulatory filing.

• This follows Paramount Skydance’s (PSKY) all-cash tender offer to acquire WBD for USD 30/shr, valuing the transaction at USD 108.4bn.

Pres. Donald Trump has expressed significant reservations about the proposed Netflix–Warner Bros. Discovery deal, saying it “could be a problem” due to the size and market share the combined company would command. While he praised Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos as a “fantastic man” and called Netflix a great company, Trump emphasized that the scale of the merger raises real antitrust concerns. He also stated that he intends to be personally involved in the regulatory vetting process, signaling that the deal will face unusually high executive-level scrutiny. Despite his positive comments about the companies themselves, Trump made clear that there is no guarantee the transaction will move forward, underscoring uncertainty around whether such a large consolidation could win approval under his administration. The news that his son-in-law Jared Kushner is involved on the Paramount Skydance deal, of course raises an eyebrow.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

A 7.2 magnitude earthquake is reported off of northern Japan. More specifically off of the coast of Aomori Prefecture.

There are Tsunami warnings for parts of northern Japan with maximum 3 m high tsunami expected after the earthquake

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Paramount Skydance (PSKY) launched an all-cash tender offer to acquire Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) for $30 per share.

• The proposed deal values WBD at $108.4 billion.

• The offer covers 100% of WBD, including its global networks segment.

• Paramount has taken the offer directly to WBD shareholders.

• Equity financing will be backstopped by the Ellison Family and RedBird Capital, with additional debt fully committed by Bank of America, Citi, and Apollo.

• Paramount argues the Netflix transaction provides WBD shareholders with inferior and uncertain value.

• The offer is not subject to any financing conditions.

• Paramount will submit a premerger notification filing today under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976.

David Ellison (CEO of Paramount Skydance) is on CNBC touting his offer in relation to Netflix saying that the all-cash is a game changer.

• Says that he believes Pres. Trump is in favor of competitiveness
• if this deal is aloowed to pass it is anticompetitive and horrible for Hollywood
• We believe that what we offer is better for Hollywood and better for the customers
• Absolutely it would be beneficial for Hollywood.
• We will bring 30 movies per year to the big screen

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• RBA preview: Will the central bank switch to a hawkish stance?
• ECB’s Kazimir: I see no reason to change rates in the coming months
• Nifty 50 ends the day lower but rebounds from key support ahead of the close
• Eurozone December Sentix investor confidence -6.2 vs -7.0 expected
• ECB’s Rehn: Sticking to full optionality on rates, full freedom of action
• Market Outlook for the week of 8th – 12th December
• Switzerland November SECO consumer confidence -34 vs -34 expected
• Germany October industrial production +1.8% vs +0.4% m/m expected
• ECB’s Schnabel: Comfortable with bets that next move will be a rate hike
• FX option expiries for 8 December 10am New York cut
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama: Recently seeing one-side, rapid moves
• What are the main events for today?

It’s been a pretty boring session in terms of data releases and newsflow. The main highlight was a Bloomberg article on ECB’s Schnabel recent remarks in which she said that she was fine with rate hike bets in 2026.

The interview in question was from last week and Schnabel is a known hawk, so it’s not exactly some fresh stuff. Nonetheless, we’ve been seeing the ECB and some other central banks focusing more on upside inflation risks recently. The main 2026 risk for markets could very well be hawkish central banks.

In the markets, the EUR spiked on Schnabel’s remark but gave up the gains pretty quickly. We are now very close to the last FOMC decision of the year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some defensive hedging into it given the hawkish risks.

In FX, we haven’t seen notable changes but the CAD remains the strongest currency following the incredibly strong Canadian employment report on Friday. Notably, the JPY continues to weaken despite the incoming BoJ rate hike. The Japanese officials clearly don’t like this price action with the Finance Minister Katayama today lamenting again about “one-sided, rapid moves”.

The positive risk sentiment continues to hold with US equities trading higher in pre-market and bitcoin adding to yesterday’s gains. In the bond market, things are quite different. US yields continue to grind higher and getting closer to the upper bound of the 3-month range. The latest upside might have been in response to the Canadian data as the market might fear the overeasing risk.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 9/12/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.