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We may not see the same people in the classic photo above, but the situation speaks to the same kind of mood as we approach perhaps the biggest WEF event ever. Yes, it is that time of the year again. Global politics will take center stage and all eyes are on Davos as US president Trump is set to make a live appearance after having done so virtually last year.

Make no mistake about it. Trump loves Davos. It’s his one chance a year to act like the mafia boss among global leaders and make a show of his power by flaunting the US agenda.

This time will be no different. And he’s already setting the stage up for it with the announcements over the weekend.

Trump has already launched an attack on the EU, threatening tariffs unless he gets his way with Greenland. Now, that will surely make for a bewildering yet awkward meet in Davos in the coming days.

The theme that the forum will carry this year is ‘A Spirit of Dialogue’. It is meant to emphasise on communication among global players when geopolitical tensions are pushing everything to the edge.

And while there will surely be plenty of talking moments and conversations on the sidelines, the Trump approach has always been to use this kind of opportunity to hard sell his ideals and convictions.

So, is the Davos agenda basically dead on arrival? Perhaps.

EU leaders will definitely want to find ways to speak to Trump about Greenland but don’t expect him to entertain offers here. Besides the Greenland issue, Trump will also have to deal with other global influences including the likes of Canada, Ukraine, and China. So, expect the big man to want to show that he holds all the cards on the table.

Either way, it’s worth tuning in and keeping an eye out for key headlines during the event. Here are some of the main speakers on the agenda on the week:

• 20/1 0950 GMT – European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen delivers her special address**
• 20/1 1020 GMT – China vice premier He Lifeng delivers his special address*
• 20/1 1300 GMT – French president Emmanuel Macron delivers his special address*
• 20/1 1330 GMT – US Treasury secretary Bessent participates in a speaking session*
• 20/1 1530 GMT – Canada prime minister Mark Carney delivers his special address*
• 21/1 1030 GMT – Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang participates in a speaking session*
• 21/1 1200 GMT – JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon participates in a speaking session*
• 21/1 1330 GMT – US president Donald Trump delivers his special address***
• 22/1 1030 GMT – Germany chancellor Friedrich Merz delivers his special address*

The full programme can be found here.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The start of the 2026 has been all about US president Trump’s threats and actions so far. In the first week, it was the invasion of Venezuela. Last week, it was the attack on the Fed’s independence and escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran. This week, tariffs are once again back in the picture as Trump wants the EU to give up Greenland.

What a time to be alive, eh?

The latest tariffs threat is causing a stir in markets to start the new week now with risk trades on the backfoot. Trump is threatening 10% tariffs on “any and all goods” starting from 1 February and that will jump up to 25% on 1 June after. That unless “a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of Greenland”. 🤪

Goldman Sachs estimates that the economic hit will be on exports worth roughly 1% to 1.5% of euro area GDP. The breakdown by country can be seen below:

The EU has been swift to announce retaliation, with the big one being their €93 billion tariffs package on US goods. As a reminder, this package is one that was suspended last year after both sides came to a “trade deal” over the summer. It is said that these tariffs could be put into effect on 6 February, just days after Trump’s tariffs hit.

For now, risk trades are taking a knock. US markets might be closed today for the long weekend but futures are pointing lower already. S&P 500 futures are down 0.8% and Nasdaq futures down 1.0%. Meanwhile, European stock futures are pointing to a gap lower by over 1% to start the week.

Amid the geopolitical tensions and erratic US administrative policy, precious metals are once again catching fresh bids while the dollar is sitting lower across the board. The latter did see some slight gains early on but they have been quick to fade. Here’s a snapshot of dollar pairs at the moment:

As for precious metals, they opened with a gap higher to start the week with gold now up 1.7% to $4,671 and silver up 3.7% to $93.49 currently. Hot, hot, hot. 🔥

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Trump on Greenland, the bluster continues: says “now is the time, it will be done”
• South Korea banks signal modest credit easing as debt curbs persist
• China factory output accelerates as retail sales and investment lag – recap
• China Q4 GDP slows to three-year low despite hitting 2025 growth target
• China home prices fall again in December as property downturn persists
• China data: Q4 GDP 4.5% y/y (expected 4.4%), Dec retail sales +0.9% y/y (expected 1.2%)
• JPY traders heads up, Japan PM Takaichi press conference from 0900GMT
• China new home price continued to drop in December 2025.
• Japan election raises odds of sales tax cut, bond yields jump
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0051 (vs. estimate at 6.9689)
• Bitcoin has been slammed lower, back under US$93K
• UK house asking prices post record seasonal jump, Rightmove says
• Japan data: Machine Orders for November: -11.0% m/m (vs. expected -5.1%)
• Gold has hit a record high after Trump’s extra tariff plan announced over the weekend
• US stock markets have fallen after Trump’s extra tariffs announcement over the weekend
• Reminder: US markets closed for holiday today, Martin Luther King Jr. Day January 19 2026
• Spain – At least 10 people died in high speed train crash
• EU calls emergency summit as Trump escalates Greenland tariff threat. Euro a little lower.
• Monday open indicative forex prices, 19 Jan 2026. ‘Risk’ lower on Trump’s latest trade war
• investingLive Americas market news wrap: Trump hints Hassett won’t be Fed pick

At a glance:

• Trump threatens escalating tariffs on Europe and the UK over Greenland, triggering retaliation plans

• Early FX saw USD bid, but EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD fully reversed initial losses

• Yen outperformed as JGB yields surged on election-linked tax cut speculation

• US equity and Treasury futures gapped lower and remained under pressure

• China data reinforced uneven growth, property weakness and demographic headwinds

• Bitcoin sold off sharply amid thin and unconvincing narratives

Over the weekend Trump ‘tweeted’ his plan to impose extra tariffs, in his words:
Starting on February 1st, 2026, all of the above mentioned countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland) will be charged a 10% tariff on any and all goods sent to the United States. On June 1st, 2026, the tariff will be increased to 25%. This tariff will remain in place until a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of Greenland.

Europe and the UK responded with retaliatory tariff plans of their own, though both signalled a preference for negotiation first.

In very early FX trade in the timezone, the USD gained ground against EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD and others. JPY was the exception, strengthening against the USD following its better performance late last week.

The early gap lower in EUR/USD was quickly filled. The pair rebounded sharply from below 1.1580 to highs nudging above 1.1635, with similar V-shaped moves seen in GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD. The yen again marched to its own beat, with USD/JPY dipping below 157.50 before rebounding above 157.90. I’ll have more to say on Japan further down.

US equity index futures gapped lower on Globex and had not recovered as I post. US 10-year Treasury futures also traded lower.

Gold and silver rocketed higher.

Japan

Japanese machinery orders fell 11% m/m in November, more than double the decline economists had expected.

That data, however, was overshadowed by political developments. Japan’s looming election has sharply raised the likelihood of a temporary sales tax cut. Senior ruling party figures said scrapping the 8% food tax for two years is firmly on the table as politicians seek to cushion living costs ahead of a likely February vote.

Bond markets reacted aggressively, with 10-year JGB yields hitting their highest levels since 1999 on concerns about fiscal slippage and increased issuance.

Japan’s Nikkei fell for a third straight session, weighed down by the machinery orders shock, surging yields, Greenland-related geopolitical tension, and a firmer yen.

China

China set today’s USD/CNY fixing at 7.0051, the strongest since May 2023.

December data reinforced ongoing stress in the property sector. New home prices fell again, while resale prices recorded their steepest decline in over a year. Developers remain under pressure, with debt talks and defaults continuing to surface.

Growth data confirmed the imbalance. Q4 GDP slowed to 4.5% y/y, the weakest pace since the post-Covid reopening, even as full-year growth met the 5% target. Industrial output held up, but retail sales and investment disappointed, underlining weak domestic demand.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded sharply lower. The move was blamed on a delayed US crypto bill, though that news broke mid last week. As ever, I’m more inclined to trust analysts who admit they don’t know the catalyst than those recycling thin narratives.

Odds and ends

• ETFs linked to China’s “national team” saw another day of record outflows, adding to signs authorities are trying to cap bubble risks

• UK productivity data showed tentative signs of improvement, based on alternative measures

• Iron ore fell for a fifth straight session as China confirmed a sharp drop in steel output and new African supply arrived

• China’s population continued to shrink in 2025, with births falling for a fourth consecutive year to the lowest level on record. The workforce is contracting as the population ages, intensifying long-term pressure on growth and the pension system. Despite subsidies and policy incentives, economists warn the demographic trend is unlikely to reverse. From a global perspective, India may increasingly pick up the slack.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) -0.84%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) -0.99%
• Shanghai
  Composite +0.13%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) -0.34%

Still to come:

• Japan PM press conference at 0900 GMT/ 0400 US Eastern time
• US holiday, markets closed Monday

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The latest post from Trump on his social media app:

• NATO has been telling Denmark, for 20 years, that “you have to get the Russian threat away from Greenland.” Unfortunately, Denmark has been unable to do anything about it. Now it is time, and it will be done!!! President Donald J. Trump

The threats and bluster continue. Greenland, Denmark, the EU, indeed the rest of the world are against Trump’s invasion plans.

Earlier:

• Monday open indicative forex prices, 19 Jan 2026. ‘Risk’ lower on Trump’s latest trade war
• EU calls emergency summit as Trump escalates Greenland tariff threat. Euro a little lower.
• US stock markets have fallen after Trump’s extra tariffs announcement over the weekend
• Gold has hit a record high after Trump’s extra tariff plan announced over the weekend

As posted earlier, ICYMI:

The European Union is moving toward an emergency leaders’ summit as U.S. President Donald Trump escalates trade pressure on European allies over Greenland, threatening a new wave of tariffs unless Washington is allowed to purchase the territory.

European Council President Antonio Costa said he would convene an extraordinary EU summit in the coming days, following consultations that showed strong unity among member states in support of Denmark and Greenland. An EU official said the meeting is likely to take place in person on Thursday, January 22.

In a statement, Costa said EU leaders were prepared to defend the bloc against “any form of coercion” while continuing to engage constructively with the United States. The move underlines growing concern in Brussels that the dispute risks morphing into a broader transatlantic trade confrontation.

The escalation comes after Trump announced that Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland would face a 10% tariff from February 1, rising to 25% from June 1, unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs are framed by Washington as a response to security and strategic interests in the Arctic.

Separately, an EU diplomat told Reuters that a suspended package of retaliatory tariffs worth €93 billion on U.S. goods will automatically come back into force on February 6 if no agreement is reached. The measures were shelved last August for six months after Brussels and Washington struck a temporary trade deal, but that accord is now in jeopardy.

The political pushback has widened beyond the EU. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer told Trump that imposing tariffs on allies over Greenland was “wrong,” arguing that security in the High North is a shared priority for NATO allies. Starmer held calls with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte before speaking with the U.S. president.

The dispute places fresh strain on transatlantic relations, with markets now watching whether the EU summit can de-escalate the confrontation before automatic tariffs on both sides come into force in early February.

The Greenland dispute injects fresh geopolitical risk into EU–U.S. relations, raising the probability of near-term tariff escalation and adding downside risk to European trade sentiment into February.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I popped up the data earlier:

• China data: Q4 GDP 4.5% y/y (expected 4.4%), Dec retail sales +0.9% y/y (expected 1.2%)

See the screenshot above for the short summary of the main headline data points.

Follow up on the GDP data is here:

• China Q4 GDP slows to three-year low despite hitting 2025 growth target

Turning to the December data, it showed factory strength masking weak consumption and investment, highlighting an uneven recovery heading into 2026.

Summary:

• Industrial output accelerates, retail sales disappoint

• Investment contracts for first time in decades

• Property downturn continues to weigh on confidence

• Employment steady despite weak demand

• Policy support ramps up amid global risks

China’s latest activity data highlight an increasingly unbalanced recovery, with industrial output gaining momentum in December while consumer spending and investment continue to underperform, underscoring the challenges facing policymakers in 2026.

Official figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showed industrial production rose 5.2% year-on-year in December, accelerating from 4.8% in November as manufacturing activity benefited from resilient export demand. In contrast, retail sales grew just 0.9%, slowing from 1.3% the previous month and undershooting market expectations, pointing to persistent weakness in household spending.

The investment picture remains even more fragile. Fixed asset investment fell 3.8% in 2025, marking its first annual contraction since 1998, while property investment slumped 17.2%, reflecting the prolonged downturn in the real estate sector. Falling home prices have continued to erode household wealth, compounding the drag on consumption and confidence.

Despite subdued demand, labour market conditions have remained relatively stable. The nationwide urban survey-based unemployment rate held steady at 5.1% in December, unchanged from November, suggesting that weakness in spending has yet to translate into broad-based job losses.

Looking ahead, the outlook is complicated by rising global trade protectionism and uncertainty around U.S. policy. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran, adding to external risks for China’s export sector.

Policymakers have moved to provide early support. The People’s Bank of China last week cut sector-specific lending rates and signalled scope for further reductions in banks’ reserve requirements and broader policy rates. Fiscal policy is also set to play a larger role, with Chinese leaders pledging a “proactive” stance this year and analysts expecting Beijing to target growth of around 5% again.

Structural challenges remain unresolved. Household consumption accounts for less than 40% of GDP, well below global norms. Institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have long urged China to rebalance toward consumption-led growth, warning that reliance on investment and exports poses longer-term risks unless income growth and social safety nets are strengthened.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• Q4 GDP slows to 4.5% y/y, weakest in three years

• Full-year 2025 growth hits 5.0% target

• Export strength offsets weak domestic demand

• Property slump and deflation drag on confidence

• Structural imbalances remain key risk

China met its 2025 growth target, but a sharp Q4 slowdown highlights rising dependence on exports amid weak domestic demand.

China’s economic growth slowed to its weakest pace in three years in the final quarter of 2025, highlighting mounting strains from soft domestic demand even as strong exports allowed the economy to meet the government’s full-year growth target, Reuters reported.

Data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed gross domestic product expanded 4.5% year-on-year in Q4, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter. The outcome was marginally above market expectations but marked the slowest quarterly pace since the post-pandemic reopening period.

On a quarterly basis, output rose 1.2% in October–December, exceeding forecasts for a 1.0% increase and edging above the prior quarter’s 1.1% gain. Even so, economists say momentum remains fragile as consumer confidence and private investment continue to lag.

For 2025 as a whole, China’s economy grew 5.0%, matching Beijing’s official target of “around 5%” and slightly outperforming market expectations. The result reflects resilience in the face of external headwinds, aided by exporters’ success in diversifying away from the United States and by tariff increases that proved less severe than initially feared.

China’s manufacturing and export engine remained the key growth driver. The country last week reported a record trade surplus of nearly US$1.2 trillion in 2025, underpinned by robust shipments to emerging markets and Europe. That export strength enabled policymakers to limit stimulus to targeted measures rather than broad-based easing.

However, the heavy reliance on external demand underscores persistent vulnerabilities. Domestic consumption and investment weakened further late last year, weighed down by a prolonged property downturn, falling home prices and entrenched deflationary pressures. Analysts warn that without a sustained recovery in household confidence, growth risks becoming increasingly unbalanced.

Structural challenges remain a central concern for policymakers. While export-led resilience has bought time, economists caution that weak domestic demand, excess capacity and property sector stress pose longer-term risks to China’s growth trajectory heading into 2026.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• New home prices fall 0.4% m/m, 2.7% y/y in December

• Annual decline fastest in five months

• Majority of cities continue to record price falls

• Secondary market weakness persists across all tiers

• Property investment and sales remain deeply negative

China’s December housing data point to a stubborn property slump that continues to weigh on confidence despite policy support.

China’s new home prices fell again in December, reinforcing signs that the country’s prolonged property downturn remains firmly entrenched despite repeated policy efforts to stabilise the sector, according to official data.

Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showed new home prices declined 0.4% month-on-month, matching November’s pace of contraction. On a year-on-year basis, prices were down 2.7%, accelerating from a 2.4% annual fall in November and marking the steepest decline in five months.

The data underline the uneven and fragile nature of the recovery in China’s housing market, which remains a key drag on household confidence and broader economic momentum. Of the 70 cities tracked by the NBS, just six recorded price increases in December, while 58 cities posted declines, highlighting the breadth of the weakness.

Conditions in the secondary, or resale, market also deteriorated further. Existing home prices fell faster from a year earlier across tier-one, tier-two and tier-three cities, signalling that price pressures are not confined to lower-tier regions and remain widespread across urban China.

Economists say a sustained recovery in housing would be critical for lifting consumer sentiment, given the sector’s central role in household wealth. A stabilisation in prices could also help ease structural imbalances between supply and demand that continue to weigh on growth.

Separate official data show the scale of the downturn. Property investment fell 17.2% in 2025, while home sales by floor area dropped 8.7%, reflecting weak buyer confidence and cautious developer activity.

In a New Year article, Qiushi, the Communist Party’s flagship journal, described the sector as undergoing a “profound adjustment” but insisted property remains a pillar of the economy with scope for transformation. The piece called for “strong policy actions” to stabilise expectations.

China’s property crisis began in mid-2021 following a crackdown on excessive leverage, pushing major developers such as Country Garden and Evergrande into financial distress. Regulators said last week they would promote the normal operation of programmes designed to accelerate financing for stalled residential projects, though markets remain sceptical that current measures are sufficient to reverse the slide.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This will be in relation to the snap election expected.

Just noting this.

Earlier:

• Japan election raises odds of sales tax cut, bond yields jump

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Noting the data, I’ll be separately with more on all this.

Gross Domestic Product for Q4 2025 % y/y

• expected 4.4%, prior 4.8%

% q/q

• expected 1.0%, prior 1.1%

December 2025 data:

Retail Sales % y/y

• expected 1.2%, prior 1.3%

Industrial Production % y/y

• expected 5.0%, prior 4.8%

Fixed Asset Investment % y/y

• expected -3.0%, prior -2.6%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China December 2025 new home prices -0.4% m/m

• prior -0.4%

-2.7% y/y

• prior -2.4%

China December 2025 used home prices -0.7% m/m

• prior -0.7%

The falls continue. It’s a vicious circle for home prices in China, why buy now when prices are expected to keep falling.

—

The main data from China is still to come

I wrote a preview earlier ICYMI:

• Q4 GDP seen at 4.5% y/y, weakest in three years

• Full-year 2025 growth likely meets ~5% target, but nominal growth lags

• Retail sales and investment remain key drags on activity

• Industrial production supported by resilient exports

• Policy stance cautious, with limited appetite for major stimulus

China is expected to have ended 2025 with its weakest quarterly growth in three years, highlighting an increasingly uneven recovery driven by exports rather than domestic demand as the economy heads into 2026.

Data are forecast to show that while overseas demand has remained resilient, consumption and investment continue to drag on growth. Economists expect gross domestic product to have expanded 4.5% y/y in Q4, the slowest pace since the post-pandemic reopening, even as full-year growth reaches around 5%, in line with Beijing’s official target.

The composition of growth remains the key concern. A historic contraction in investment and faltering household demand are expected to offset momentum from exports, which have been boosted by record shipments outside the United States despite renewed trade tensions under U.S. President Donald Trump.

Retail sales growth is forecast to ease to a fresh three-year low in December, reflecting weak income growth, soft labour conditions and ongoing pressure from falling home prices. Fixed asset investment is expected to post its first annual contraction since official records began three decades ago, underscoring the depth of the property downturn and the saturation of infrastructure spending.

By contrast, industrial production is likely to have accelerated in December to its fastest pace since September, supported by strong external demand. That divergence reinforces expectations that China’s two-speed growth model will persist into 2026, with exports carrying the load as domestic demand remains subdued.

Deflation continues to complicate the outlook. While real GDP growth may meet the government’s target, nominal expansion is expected to be significantly weaker, weighing on corporate earnings, household wealth and fiscal revenues.

Policymakers appear reluctant to respond with large-scale stimulus. President Xi Jinping has signalled greater tolerance for slower growth, while concerns around local government debt limit Beijing’s willingness to expand aggressively.

China’s central bank has reinforced that message. The People’s Bank of China has leaned toward targeted easing, recently lowering the cost of structural lending tools while only cautiously flagging scope for broader rate cuts. Officials have increasingly acknowledged that monetary easing is losing effectiveness in an economy constrained by weak demand and structural imbalances.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• Japan election boosts chances of consumption tax cut

• LDP and opposition back temporary removal of food tax

• 10-year JGB yield hits highest level since 1999

• Inflation pressures intensify political push for relief

• Fiscal risks worry bond investors

Japan election risks revive sales tax cut debate, rattling bond markets

Japan’s looming snap general election is sharply increasing the likelihood of a temporary cut to the country’s consumption tax, as both ruling and opposition politicians signal support for easing the cost-of-living burden on households, a move that is already unsettling bond markets, Reuters reported.

Senior figures from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) said on Sunday that cutting the 8% consumption tax on food purchases is now firmly on the table, reflecting growing political pressure ahead of a potential February election. Japan currently applies an 8% sales tax to food and a 10% rate on other goods and services, with the levy forming a critical pillar of funding for social welfare in an ageing society.

LDP secretary-general Shunichi Suzuki pointed to an earlier agreement with coalition partner Ishin to aim for scrapping the food tax for two years, saying the party intends to honour commitments already made.

Market concerns over Japan’s fiscal trajectory intensified as the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond climbed to 2.215%, its highest level since 1999, reflecting fears that tax cuts would be financed through additional debt issuance.

According to Japanese media, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering pledging a temporary food tax cut when she announces a snap election, expected later this month. The proposal has also gained traction across the political spectrum, with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and other opposition groups backing similar measures.

Supporters argue that tax relief is needed after inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for nearly four years, driven largely by persistently high food prices. Critics, however, warn that scrapping the food levy would cost roughly 5 trillion yen ($31.7bn) annually, exacerbating Japan’s already strained public finances and raising the risk of a sustained bond market sell-off.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• UK asking prices rise 2.8% m/m, biggest January jump on record

• Prices now 0.5% higher y/y after recent weakness

• Housing supply at highest seasonal level since 2014

• Confidence improves after budget uncertainty fades

• Affordability pressures still limit upside

UK asking prices recorded their strongest rise for this time of year on record, signalling a tentative rebound in seller confidence after months of uncertainty surrounding last year’s budget.

Property portal Rightmove said average asking prices for newly listed homes rose 2.8% month-on-month in the four weeks to January 10 — the largest increase for any month since 2015 — following a 1.8% decline in the previous period. Prices are now 0.5% higher than a year earlier, while housing supply has climbed to its highest level for this time of year since 2014.

The recovery follows a period of caution linked to speculation ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ November tax and spending statement, which unsettled buyers and sellers alike. While Reeves announced £26 billion in tax increases, most measures were deferred and income tax rates were left unchanged, easing fears of a sharper hit to household finances.

Rightmove said sellers are now returning to the market with greater confidence, encouraged by stabilising expectations and a more predictable policy outlook. The shift echoes recent survey evidence from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, which reported improving sentiment across the housing market.

However, Rightmove cautioned that the rebound remains modest. Asking prices have only returned to levels last seen in mid-2025, before budget speculation dented confidence. Elevated borrowing costs and stretched affordability continue to cap upside momentum, suggesting price growth is likely to remain subdued despite the strong seasonal start.

The data point to stabilising UK housing sentiment but suggest limited scope for sustained price acceleration while mortgage affordability remains tight.

***

Separately,

Summary:

• Think tank urges UK government to end policy flip-flops

• Productivity rose 3.1% y/y in Q3 2025

• Housing, labour and trade reforms key to faster growth

• Brexit impact may be larger than official estimates

• Reforms could lift incomes by £2,000 a year

Britain’s government needs to abandon policy reversals and move decisively on structural reforms if it wants to capitalise on early signs of economic improvement, according to a report from the Resolution Foundation.

The think tank said the 18 months since Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s landslide election victory have been marked by frequent U-turns, tentative policy proposals and diluted reforms, limiting progress on boosting growth and productivity.

While headline economic performance has remained weak, the Resolution Foundation noted emerging evidence that productivity may be turning a corner. Adjusting for past under-recording of employment, productivity rose 3.1% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, offering a rare bright spot after years of stagnation.

To sustain that momentum, the report urged bolder action on housing, labour markets and trade. Measures such as easing planning restrictions to meet urban housing targets, deeper regulatory alignment with the European Union, and policies to draw more young and older workers into employment could lift household incomes by around £2,000 a year, it said.

That improvement would also generate sufficient tax revenue to fund a 25% increase in NHS spending, the think tank estimated.

Britain’s economy has underperformed peers for much of the past two decades, with GDP per capita slipping further behind other major European countries since the pandemic. The Resolution Foundation said the drag from Brexit could be close to double the 4% hit assumed by official forecasters, compounding the effects of COVID and the energy price shock.

The report reinforces concerns that without structural reform, any UK productivity rebound may prove short-lived, limiting medium-term growth and fiscal headroom.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.