Articles

• ICYMI: China home prices steepest fall in a year as industrial, investment data weaken
• FX intervention – Indian central bank likely selling U.S. dollars to support rupee
• U.S. approves potential US$330m fighter-jet parts sale to Taiwan
• Oil surges after drone strike hits Russian Novorossiysk terminal, heightening supply risks
• China say stabilisation taking hold despite weak investment and industrial slowdown in Oct
• Amazon, Microsoft back bill curbing Nvidia’s China chip exports to secure U.S. AI supply
• China Oct Retail Sale (YoY) 2.9% (exp 2.7%) & Industrial Production (YoY) 4.9% (exp 5.5%)
• US, South Korea unveil deal with major investments, tariff cuts and defence expansion
• Intervention: South Korea won-stabilising measures after currency sinks to seven-month low
• China October new house prices -2.2% y/y (prior -2.2% also)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0825 (vs. estimate at 7.0964)
• EUR/GBP above 0.8852, a 2.5 year high as UK ditches income tax rate hike plans
• Japan’s Takaichi backs away from minimum-wage target amid pushback from regional firms
• UBS: China’s AI power build-out (5–6GW) is modest vs U.S. (40–45GW), signalling no bubble.
• China – Evergrande Property Services invites updated bids as liquidation process advances
• Japan’s Economy Minister Kiuchi says a weak yen can push up CPI through import costs
• More on UK drops income-tax hike plans ahead of November budget
• GBP is taking a hit after the report that Starmer is going to drop plan to hike tax rates
• US media report Trump preparing to back down on some tariffs in order to lower food prices
• UK PM Starmer and fin min Reeves drop plan to hike income tax rates
• MUFG: Policy divergence supports AUD/NZD as RBA holds firm and RBNZ eyes more cuts
• Citi: September payrolls near, October data likely pushed to December
• US/Swiss talks very positive, tariff & barrier reductions expected pending Trump approval
• investingLive Americas market news wrap: Rough day in stock markets
• New Zealand October 2025 Manufacturing PMI jumps to 51.4 (prior 50.1, revised from 49.9)
• Biggest daily decline for stock markets since October 10
• RBNZ’s Gai says global tensions, trade shifts cloud outlook. Needs clearer policy signals.

GBP

There was important news out of the UK, with the Financial Times reporting that Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have abandoned plans to raise UK income tax rates just weeks before the 26 November budget. The government faces a fiscal gap of roughly £30 billion and will now be scrambling for alternative revenue sources. The pound took a hit on the headlines, with EUR/GBP pushing to a 2½-year high.

NZD

The New Zealand dollar outperformed during the session. The lift came partly from data showing the October Performance of Manufacturing Index jumped to 51.4 (from a revised 50.1 for September), but most of the attention centred on the RBNZ’s confirmation that it will ease mortgage loan-to-value restrictions on 1 December.

• For owner-occupiers, the share of new lending allowed with an LVR above 80% will rise to 25% (from 20%).

• For investors, the LVR limit at >70% will rise to 10% (from 5%).

Oil

Oil prices also surged more than 2% after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged an oil depot at Russia’s Novorossiysk port — a site handling around 2.2 million bpd of crude and condensate. Analysts said the strike underscored persistent supply risks tied to both Ukrainian attacks and tightening Western sanctions.

Other items of interest:

A senior U.S. official said trade talks with Switzerland were “very positive,” with Washington considering a deal to cut tariffs on Swiss imports pending President Trump’s approval.

The New York Times reported that the Trump administration is preparing tariff exemptions aimed at reducing food prices, following earlier reports this week that the White House is looking to ease cost-of-living pressures.

China’s property slump deepened, with new-home prices in 70 cities falling 0.45% m/m in October, the steepest drop in a year, and resale values sliding 0.66%, the fastest decline in 13 months. The four-year downturn continues to weigh heavily on household sentiment and consumption. Industrial output rose 4.9% YoY, missing forecasts, retail sales gained 2.9%, and fixed-asset investment fell 1.7% YTD. The unemployment rate slipped to 5.1%.

The People’s Bank of China set the daily USD/CNY fix at its strongest since October 2024, a signal aimed at supporting consumption by making imports cheaper. The yuan briefly hit a one-year high on exporter dollar-selling before easing post-data.

In geopolitics and markets, the United States and South Korea unveiled a sweeping economic and security agreement featuring major tariff reductions and hundreds of billions of dollars in Korean investment. Meanwhile, South Korea’s FX authorities vowed to stabilise the won after it fell to a seven-month low. Dealers suspect authorities have already intervened via dollar-selling.

Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon and Microsoft have publicly backed the proposed Gain AI Act — legislation that would restrict Nvidia’s ability to export advanced chips to China — marking a rare policy split between the tech giants and one of their largest suppliers.

Crypto extended its losses.

Asia-Pac
stocks followed Wall Street lower:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) -1.81%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) -1.26%
• Shanghai
  Composite -0.16%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) -1.45%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Berkshire Hathaway trims stake in Apple, buys Google – filing
• Fed’s Miran: Recent data has made the case for a rate cut even stronger
• The September non-farm payrolls report will finally be released on Nov 20
• Fed’s Logan says she would have preferred to hold rates steady in Oct
• Fed’s Schmid: Further rate cuts won’t patch job market cracks
• Michael Saylor: We will be reporting on bitcoin buys on Monday
• Canada Sept manufacturing sales +3.3% vs +2.8% expected
• Walmart shares fall as CEO steps down

Markets:

• Gold down $91 to $4079
• WTI crude oil up $1.23 to $59.97
• US 10-year yields up 3.6 bps to 4.15%
• S&P 500 flat
• Bitcoin down $3896 to $94,906
• NZD leads, CHF lags

Implied odds of a Fed cut in December were at 66% early this week but fell yesterday and continued to slide today. They’re now at just 40% despite no real change in Fed commentary. There are still some vociferous hawks and doves but nothing has really changed on communication. It’s like the market finally went back and listened to what Powell said on October 30.

In any case, it was another choppy day. US equity futures were deeply red and stocks slumped hard at the open, with the Nasdaq falling 1.5%. But the dip buying was aggressive from the bottom, led by Nvidia and it recovered and more. There were solid gains midway though the day that eventually faded into a flat close. Micron, Nvidia and Microsoft were among the biggest winners while Netflix and Paypal were laggards.

In FX, USD/JPY followed the path of equities as the pair slumped 75 pips in short order only to completely recover. The pair is near the best levels since January.

The euro rose early but couldn’t get above yesterday’s high of 1.1655 and sagged back to 1.1620.

Cable was bounced around by a report that there won’t be any income tax hikes after all but that weighed heavily on gilts and the pound was down 20 pips on the day in very choppy trade.

Commodity currencies made small gains.

In commodity markets, oil and gold headed in opposite directions. Crude rallied to finish roughly flat on the week while gold fell $92 but still managed to finish the week $80 higher.

A big loser on the day and week was bitcoin, which is trading near the lowest since May and fell nearly 4% on the day. It had plumbed lows near $94K early in the day and bounced with risk sentiment but the sellers returned late to carve out new lows. It will be under the microscope over the weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We’ve got a jobs report on the economic calendar.

The BLS announced that it will release the Sept 2025 employment report on November 20, that’s next Thursday at 8:30 am ET.

It’s ancient history at this point but it’s a start.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Trump administration must be seeing polling numbers around inflation hurting. They’re playing some defense lately and now the administration is lowering or removing tariffs on:

• Coffee
• Bananas
• Tomatoes
• Beef

The first two make sense because they don’t grow in the US and the third one is seasonal but the fourth one is puzzling. It’s good new for Argentina though.

A hint on the inflation focus came from a Trump tweet earlier:

“Cost, and INFLATION, were far higher under the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration, than they are now. In fact, costs under the TRUMP ADMINISTRATION are tumbling down, helped greatly by gasoline and ENERGY. Affordability is a lie when used by the Dems. It is a complete CON JOB. Thanksgiving costs are 25% lower this year than last, under Crooked Joe! We are the Party of Affordability!”

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The UK Labour government ditched plans to raise income tax after spending weeks laying the groundwork for the move.

The problem is that it puts a hole in the government budget. Now there is some spin that they got a better fiscal forecast from the OBR but the bond market isn’t seeing the same thing. It’s seeing an indebted country without the means to raise capital from taxpayers and fund the spending.

Now this isn’t exactly a Liz Truss moment as borrowing costs are low but UK 30-year bonds aren’t taking the news well as yields are up 16 basis points today.

The pound isn’t sure what way to go on this as it’s been chopping in a narrow range around 1.3150 all week. It fell late yesterday when the budget story broke but it’s flattened out.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Says his concern on inflation is much broader than tariffs alone
• My rationale for Oct dissent continues to guide me as I head toward December
• Inflation is too hot, labor market is cooling but largely in balance

Schmid isn’t a voter again until 2029 but he certainly won’t be supporting a cut in his final meeting this year as a voter.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

S&P 500 futures are down 1.0% and Nasdaq futures down 1.5%. Nvidia is a laggard again, down 2.7% in the pre-market, Palantir down 3.9% and Tesla down 4.3%.

What changed in the past two days? The short answer is nothing.

The long answer is more complicated. I wrote about this yesterday but people are starting to look to 2026 and sensing that there has to be some kind of spending reckoning at some point. Not every company can be the winner and all the money being thrown at AI can’t be well invested.

Along those lines, there were a few events that got the market worried.

The first was OpenAI talking about a government backstop for investments. That has made people think that the private money they’re trying to raise isn’t there. The company has partially walked back the comments about it from the CFO but there seems to be a professional communications strategy out there that “the US needs to beat China on AI so we need government money”.

Again, government money is definitely useful for these things but it hints that the private money party is over.

Along those same lines, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman got testy on valuations.

During a recent interview with podcaster Brad Gerstner, Altman lost his cool when he was asked outright how it all adds up.

“How can a company with $13 billion in revenues make $1.4 trillion of spend commitments?” Gerstner asked.

“If you want to sell your shares, I’ll find you a buyer,” a taken-aback Altman replied. “Enough.”

“I think there’s a lot of people who talk with a lot of breathless concern about our compute stuff or whatever that would be thrilled to buy shares,” Altman said. “We could sell your shares or anybody else’s to some of the people who are making the most noise on Twitter about this very quickly.’”

That’s an oddly defensive way to respond and it’s reminiscent of second red flag, which was Palantir CEO Alex Karp last week getting very defensive in media appearances and lashing out a shorts, despite the stratospheric valuations on his company.

If your responses can’t fall back on company nuts and bolts, it’s a red flag. Notably, there is heavy insider selling in Palantir and some other big tech names.

And it’s not just communication and sentiment, the third thing people are watching is bonds. People are looking at the borrowing of the large cap tech and AI names and highlighting the softness in their bonds. In addition, the credit default swaps on those names have moved up.

In the past month:

• Oracle – +35.08%

• CrowdStrike – +31.89%

• SoftBank – +12.60%

• Advanced Micro Devices – +4.59%

• Intel – +10.20%

• Amazon – +10.23%

• Microsoft – +14.61%

• Alphabet / Google – +12.88%

• IBM – +10.45%

The smartest guys in the room are always in the bond market and they’re seeing something that has them worried. It’s probably just a function of more borrowing and hedging flows but

The first name on that list is particularly interesting because it highlights bot the mania of the past two months and the pitfalls. Oracle shares jumped 25% in one day and briefly made Larry Ellison the world’s richest man but as the market digested more of the circular funding economics behind some of the investment announcements, it’s recoiled and that gap has closed (and more).

Shares are down another 2% in the pre-market and the 30-year bonds they issued in September at $100 are trading at $92.

Finally, the rage quit in the market from famed short-seller Michael Burry is one of those things that makes investors nervous. Shorts famously puke at the top and some people are understandably taking that as a topping signal.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Calls the tariff relief for ‘micro areas’ like bananas and coffee
• Switzerland probably the next deal
• We’ve essentially reached a deal, will post details on Friday
• Switzerland will bring down its trade surplus with US

The Switzerland deal has been rumored for awhile. It will lower tariffs to 15%.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin is having a rough day, down $4100 to $94,640.

One of the reasons is a report from Arkham data, which shows that Strategy (formerly Microstrategy) has reportedly reduced bitcoin holdings by 47,000, bringing total holdings down to approximately 437,000.

The implication is that he has sold some bitcoin, which would be a first. However it’s likely just a shift of wallets, particularly since Saylor is going on CNBC shortly.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -1.0% (revised to -1.1%)
• Wholesale trade +0.6% vs +0.0% exp
• Prior wholesale trade -1.2% (revised to -1.0%)

This is a good number but I wrote yesterday about why it might be time to downgrade the 2026 Canadian dollar outlook.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon announced his departure in a surprise move. The 59-year-old is evidently going to retire on January 31, 2026.

In a sign of just how well-regarded he is, the shares have immediately fallen 2.8%. It’s something of a surprise due to McMillan’s age and success at the retailer as he’s found ways to compete with Amazon and doubled the share price in the past two years.

McMillon will be replaced by John Furner, who started as an hourly employee with the company and has been there for 30 years. He’s 51.

“John Furner is the right leader to guide Walmart into our next chapter
of growth and transformation,” said Greg Penner, Chairman of Walmart
Inc. “After starting as an hourly associate and being with us for over
30 years in a variety of leadership roles across all three of our
operating segments, John understands every dimension of our business –
from the sales floor to global strategy. He has proven that he can
deliver results while living our values. John’s six-year leadership of
our Walmart U.S. business during a time of rapid change, marked by
digital acceleration and strong associate engagement, has positioned us
for continued success.”

McMillon will stay on the board until June.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• The BLS was not able to fully collect the October CPI data.
• I am hoping the September jobs data can be released next week.
• The September jobs data was collected, but not processed.

This is not new information as White House Press Secretary Leavitt mentioned that we might not get the October NFP and CPI at all. What is more important is getting the November data before the next FOMC meeting, so the Fed can take a better decision with the most recent data. We should get the November NFP before the meeting, but I’m not sure if they will manage to squeeze in the November CPI.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.