Articles

Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei is addressing the Iranian people and says:

• Armed forces will leave Israel hopeless
• Israel will not remain unscathed
• Tehran will not go for half measures in its response.
• Iran is getting ready to launch 100 ballistic missiles toward Israel

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Iran will not participate in US/Iranian nuclear negotiations on Sunday. State TV is also announcing that the supreme leader Khamenei will address the Iranian people shortly.

US Pres. Trump said the US still had a meeting planned with Iran on Sunday but was unsure whether it would take place.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Baker Hughes rig count for the current week:

• Oil rig -3 at 439
• Natural gas -1 at 113
• Total recount -4 at 555

Versus a year ago the oil rig count is down from 485 or -46 rigs. That is a decline of 9.5%. Despite the decline,US oil production is at 13.43 million barrels per day, up from approximately 13.10 million bpd one year ago (+2.5%)

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

European stocks ended the day broadly in negative territory, weighed down by geopolitical tensions and weaker global sentiment. All major regional indices posted losses, with Italian and Spanish markets underperforming.

Closing levels:

• German DAX: 23,516.24, ▼255.22 (-1.07%)

• France’s CAC: 7,684.69, ▼80.43 (-1.04%)

• UK’s FTSE 100: 8,850.62, ▼34.31 (-0.39%)

• Spains Ibex: 13,910.59, ▼178.30 (-1.27%)

• Italy FTSE MIB: 39,438.74, ▼509.64 (-1.28%)

For the trading week:

• German DAX:-3.24%

• France’s CAC: -1.54%

• UK’s FTSE 100: +0.14%

• Spains Ibex: -2.37%

• Italy FTSE MIB: -2.86%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The NY Times is reporting that Israel has resumed the attacks on Iran. The strikes are centered on Fordo, one of the main underground nuclear sites.

Israel wants to cease Iranians production of nuclear weapons. I would expect that endeavor to continue until the mission is complete.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Present trump is now telling Reuters that

• Iran has sustained a devastating hit.
• It is unclear if Iran still has a nuclear program
• He is not concerned about a regional war breaking out as a result of Israel’s strike on Iran.
• I tried to save Iran’s humiliation and death.
• Israelis ultimate objective is to ensure Iran does not possess a nuclear weapon

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• US knew of the attack ahead of time.
• The battle with Iran is not over.
• Expect that Iran will attack Israel
• The surprise is the secret of success
• Plans to talk with Iranian people directly

Meanwhile the Israeli UN envoy says

• They do not know how long operation in Iran will take place
• Will continue to act until we know that we have eliminated the threat from Iran

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NBC is reporting that Trump says:

• Iran officials are calling him to discuss the situation.
• Iran missed opportunity to make a deal, but they might now have another opportunity

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Despite better than expected University of Michigan sentiment, stocks have moved to new session lows and yields have moved to new session highs. The US bonds have also decoupled from the flight to safety flows normally seen in times of geopolitical stress.

For the NASDAQ index, it is moving closer to its rising 100 hour moving average and 19349.45. The low price just reached 19425.68. The current price is down -231.2 or -1.18% at 19431.

For the S&P index, it is still a decent distance away from its rising 100 hour moving average at 5953.64. The low price reached 5983.83 so far today. The current price is down -0.96% at 5986.81.

The USD moved higher in the normal Pavlovian reaction to geopolitical risks, but has moved lower more recently in the US session.

The EURUSD is trading at 1.1538 after reaching a low near 1.1488. The rising 100 hour moving average comes in at 1.14775. The price briefly moved below the when high from June 5.

The USDJPY is off its high at 144.48 and looks to test its 200 hour moving average at 144.048.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Consumer sentiment last month 52.5
• Current conditions last month 58.9
• expectations last month 47.9
• 1 year inflation last month 6.6%
• 5- year inflation last month 4.2%

This month the survery results are more positive:

• Consumer sentiments 60.5 versus 53.5 estimate
• Current conditions 63.7 versus 59.4 estimate.
• Expectations 58.4 versus 49.0 estimate
• 1-year inflation 5.1% down from 6.6% last month.
• 5-year inflation 4.1% down from 4.2% last month

The Joann Hsu from the University of Michigan commented:

Consumer sentiment improved for the first time in six months, climbing 16% from last month but remaining about 20% below December 2024, when sentiment had exhibited a post-election bump. These trends were unanimous across the distributions of age, income, wealth, political party, and geographic region. Moreover, all five index components rose, with a particularly steep increase for short and long-run expected business conditions, consistent with a perceived easing of pressures from tariffs. Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed. However, consumers still perceive wide-ranging downside risks to the economy. Their views of business conditions, personal finances, buying conditions for big ticket items, labor markets, and stock markets all remain well below six months ago in December 2024. Despite this month’s notable improvement, consumers remain guarded and concerned about the trajectory of the economy.Year-ahead inflation expectations plunged from 6.6% last month to 5.1% this month. Long-run inflation expectations fell for the second straight month, stepping down from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June. Both readings are the lowest in three months. Consumers’ fears about the potential impact of tariffs on future inflation have softened somewhat in June. Still, inflation expectations remain above readings seen throughout the second half of 2024, reflecting widespread beliefs that trade policy may still contribute to an increase in inflation in the year ahead.

The final results will be released in 10 or so days from now.

The better than expected data has not materially impacted stock prices. US yields are moving higher despite the data and are near highs for the day:

• 2 year 3.945%, +3.9 basis points
• 10 year 4.398%, +4.2 basis points
• 30 year 4.885%, +4.3 basis points.

Gold remains elevated with gains of $47 or 1.4% at $3433. The high reached $3446.79.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba says he has agreed to meet with Pres. Trump in Canada.

His position has not changed and that he wants the removal of US tariffs. Pres. Trump yesterday said that auto tariffs may start soon

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

OPEC Secretary-General says

• There are currently no developments in supply or market dynamics
• Does not see the need for unnecessary measures.

Crude oil prices are sharply higher amid growing concerns over supply disruptions. On the technical front, the daily chart shows a strong breakout above the 200-day moving average, which sits at $68.47. This level had previously capped gains, but the price did close above the MA level yesterday increasing the bullish bias.

Today’s move also saw a break above the 61.8% retracement of the 2025 trading range, located near $70.96—adding to the bullish momentum. Crude is currently trading at $72.91, up $4.09 or 5.94% on the day, after hitting an intraday high of $77.57, the highest level since January 20. For reference, the year’s high remains at $80.73, reached on January 15.

Close support is now seen at the April 2 high price at $72.22. Move below that level and the 61.8% retracement at $70.96 would be targeted.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.