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Japan govt official on factory output:

• Environment surrounding production remains highly uncertain
• March motor vehicle production down 5.9%m/m due to lower exports, part supply disruption
• Some manufacturers expressed concern about U.S. tariffs
• Not heard directly U.S. tariff measures have forced manufacturers to change production plan

CopyThe data is here, its pretty poor:

• Japan March 2025 preliminary industrial production -1.1% m/m (expected -0.4%)

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The Bank of Japan are meeting today and Thursday. The Bank is not expected to change its policy settings.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.

How the process works:

• Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day’s trading.
• The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
• Intervention: If the yuan’s value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency’s value.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Financial Times with the report on Trump’s top economic adviser Stephen Miran addressing investors last Friday. . FT is gated, but in brief:

• Some participants found Fridays meeting counter-productive
• two people describing Miran’s comments around tariffs and markets as “incoherent” or incomplete
• and one of them saying Miran was “out of his depth”
• “[Miran] got questions and that’s when it fell apart,” said one person familiar with the meeting. “When you’re with an audience that knows a lot, the talking points are taken apart pretty quickly.”

FT cite people with direct knowledge of the matter.

Miran is not a dummy, his CV includes:

• advisor of economic policy for the Department of the Treasury from 2020 to 2021
• senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital Management

He maybe struggled with the incoherence of scattershot policy? Bessent seems to do OK though. Dunno.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Industrial Production for March 2025, preliminary, -1.1% m/m

• expected -0.4%, prior 2.3%

and -0.3% y/y

• prior +0.1%

Industrial Production forecast 1 month ahead 1.3% m/m

• prior +0.6%

2 months +3.9%

• prior +0.1%

The BoJ is expected to remain on hold at its meeting April 30/May 1.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Toyota Motor and Alphabet’s Waymo have announced a new partnership to co-develop autonomous driving platforms and explore innovations in next-generation personally owned vehicles (POVs).

• Toyota and Waymo will jointly create an autonomous driving system for future models.

• The collaboration will also focus on improving self-driving capabilities in privately owned vehicles.

• Both companies are looking at ways to expand the partnership over time.

• Waymo contributes its expertise in autonomous driving technology, while Toyota offers large-scale manufacturing and global distribution.

• The agreement is seen as a significant move toward delivering safe, consumer-ready self-driving cars.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UK Lloyds Business Barometer for April 2025 comes in at a three month low of 39%

• prior 49%
• long-run average is 29%
• gauge of economic optimism fell by 13 points to
  28%
• 70% of businesses expect to raise prices in the coming 12
  months

Info comes via a Reuters report, which adds in on a survey the Confederation of British
Industry:

• private sector output
  declined in the three months to April
• is expected to fall
  again in the three months to July
• “Private sector activity remains subdued, with our surveys
  pointing to weaker economic momentum than implied by official
  data,”
• “Uncertainty has ramped up over the last few weeks,
  following the back-and-forth on tariffs levied by the US and,
  subsequently, big movements in financial markets.”

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

John Paulson is billionaire hedge fund manager who leads his own firm, Paulson & Co. He likes gold a lot higher:

• near $5,000 an ounce by 2028 … the “high $4,000 range”

Paulson says that estimate was put to him, adding that “It’s a well-informed prediction. I think that’s a reasonable number”.

Citing:

• “As central banks and people look to put their money in a more stable source… I think gold will increase its position in the world,”
• “When the war started, (Russia) kept their physical gold, that was safe, but all their cash – the paper reserves – were confiscated,” Paulson said.

  “So that caused other central banks to wake up and say … ‘What happens if there’s a conflict with the U.S.? Could the U.S. keep our treasuries, and all our savings would disappear?'”

• global trade uncertainty, fueled in part by Washington’s tariffs, as further underpinning gold.

  “The best place to go if your faith in the (U.S.) dollar diminishes is gold as a reserve currency,”

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I compressed the price scale to give a pic of how gold has fareed (this is a weekly candle chart) and to put 5K in the picture:

What y’all think? Comments welcome!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

NQ, ES and the other indices all opened lower.

The above is a CFD reflecting ES. It had a decent rally on Tuesday, some give back to begin evening trade .

Opportunity for the BTD folks.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius in a note late last week, htat he is not confident forecasting a level for the dollar:

• “I often dodge questions about the dollar. A large body of academic literature and my own experience as an economic forecaster have taught me that predicting exchange rates is even harder than predicting growth, inflation, and interest rates.”

But …

• “I believe that the recent dollar depreciation of 5% on a broad trade-weighted basis has considerably further to go”

Warns that the dollar continuing to decline will make inflation pressure worse

• but will make US exports relatively cheaper

The U.S. economic slowdown is further compounding the dollar’s woes, and does not see much relative improvement saying that the its not likely that the US economy will outperform.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump congratulated PM Carney on his election win

• the two agreed on the importance of Canada & the US working together as independent, sovereign nations
• agreed to meet in person in the near future

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via twitter:

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Expectations I had seen centred on:

• Headline crude +0.5mn barrels
• Distillates -1.7mn bbls
• Gasoline -1.2 mn

This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

• It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies
• The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

• Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies
• Whereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week’s levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.
• the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

SMCI – which has been criticized for their accounting practices in recent past – preannounced their earnings estimates, and it is not good:

• Revenues $4.5 – $4.6 billion versus previous estimate of $5.0 – $6.0 billion
• EPS $0.29 – $0.31 versus previous estimate $0.46 – $0.62.

According to the release, during Q3 some delayed customer platform decisions moved sales into Q4. In addition “gross margin for Q3 was 220 basis points lower than Q2 preliminary due to fire inventory reserves resulting from older generation products and expedite costs to enable time-to-market for new products”

Shares are trading down -17% to $29.91.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.