Articles

• US stock markets sizzle at the open, slump midday and then recover to gains
• Gold has the spotlight right now but oil will take it again before long
• Crude oil settles at $58.27
• UK’s Reeves shrugs off ‘scaremongering’ tips higher taxes on the wealthy
• Beige Book shows now signs of US acceleration
• Fed’s Waller: AI is moving so fast we’ll see job losses before new jobs
• More Fed’s Miran: AI investment could lead to a higher neutral rate
• European indices close mixed. US stocks are higher. Gold at a new record.
• Treas Sec Bessent: As long as Argentina enacts sound policy, they will have U.S. support
• ECB’s Nagel: German economy is improving
• Fed’s Miran: Two more rate cuts this year sounds realistic
• Can Trump tolerate a trade war that would roil the stock market?
• Bessent: If China wants to be an unreliable partner for the world we will need to decouple
• USTR’s Greer: China’s actions are a complete repudation of recent US-China agreements
• Hassett: There is a generous bailout coming for farmers when the shutdown ends
• Bessent: US-Canada trade talks back on track
• Canada August wholesale trade -1.2% vs -1.3% expected
• NY Manufacturing index for August 10.7 vs -1.40 estimate
• The USD is lower to start the NA trading session. What are the technicals telling traders?
• investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar drops while equities jump, gold hits $4,200

The USD is ending the US session, the way it started the session – with the USD lower. The biggest mover was the GBPUSD with a rise of 0.52%. The dollar fell -0.37% vs the JPY, -0.46% vs the CHF and -0.31% vs the AUD. The USD was modestly higher vs the CAD (by 0.05%).

The dollar decline was additional follow through selling after the decline yesterday on the back of Fed Chair Powell focusing on potential weakness on employment and that the Fed may look to stop the balance sheet run off (dovish). The market expects a November and December cut.

Treasury Secretary Bessent emphasized that the U.S. wants to help China, not hurt it, but warned that China’s own economic coercion will ultimately damage its economy the most. He said there will be multiple meetings this week on China’s new trade restrictions and highlighted that if China continues to act as an unreliable global partner, the U.S. may have to decouple, though he reiterated that Washington prefers to de-risk, not decouple.

Bessent criticized China’s purchases of Russian oil, arguing they fuel Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, and called for European allies to align with U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods tied to Russian energy. He noted substantial U.S.–China communications in recent days, with President Trump still planning to meet President Xi in South Korea. Bessent framed tariffs as surcharges, not taxes, saying they can be borne by either exporter or importer, and justified the administration’s emergency powers as essential to protect the U.S. economy amid Chinese provocations.

He added that the U.S. offered to lift fentanyl-related tariffs under the IEEPA if China resolves the fentanyl issue for six months, but cautioned that Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans remain in place until Washington acts first. Overall, Bessent’s remarks reflected a firm but conditional approach — maintaining economic pressure on China while signaling a path toward de-escalation if progress is made on key issues like fentanyl and trade discipline.

Fed, Fed’s Miran (recent Trump nominee and dove) struck a distinctly dovish tone (not surprising), saying that two more rate cuts this year “sound realistic” and are already fully priced in by markets. He noted that recent developments — including the government shutdown and renewed U.S.–China tensions — have made rate cuts more urgent, as these shocks pose new downside risks to the economy.

Miran argued that current Fed policy is more restrictive than it appears, since the neutral rate has fallen amid shifts from immigration, AI investment, and other structural changes. While AI could eventually raise the neutral rate, he said for now, policy is tighter than many assume. He also emphasized that his disagreement with colleagues is about the pace of easing, not the ultimate destination for rates.

On inflation, Miran expressed confidence that price pressures are easing, especially in housing, and said he places less emphasis on gradual policy adjustments.

The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book reported that overall U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks, with most districts describing growth as modest or flat and some noting early signs of softening demand. Employment remained stable, though several districts highlighted increasing layoffs and hiring freezes, particularly in industries facing weaker demand or elevated uncertainty. Labor supply remains tight in sectors such as hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing, partly reflecting shifts in immigration policy. Inflation pressures persist, fueled by higher input costs and new tariffs, though the degree of price pass-through to consumers varies by region. With official inflation data delayed by the government shutdown, policymakers are relying more heavily on these anecdotal insights to gauge the economy’s underlying momentum.

Crude oil is lower again with the low price reaching $58.20. Adam Button in a post wrote that world oil demand has reached record highs, yet prices remain subdued, with crude down with the price down 18% lower year-to-date, far from the $130 levels seen in 2022.

The main drag? OPEC+ continuing to add supply, which has kept the market oversupplied.

Still, as Adam Button notes, the “cure for low prices is low prices,” since depressed prices discourage new drilling and investment, eventually tightening supply. Demand is expected to grow by another 1 million barrels per day in 2026, which could gradually restore balance—though whether that occurs in 2026 or 2027 remains uncertain. CLICK here to read the full story.

Meanwhile, gold and silver continued their runs to the upside. Gold is up by $63 or 1.54% at $4206 and silver is up 1.62 or 3.14% at $53.07 on the day. Both are on pace for record closing levels for the day.

Bitcoin buyers are NOT as relentless. Since tradin to a new record high price at $126,272, the price has the hundred 10,000 915,000 over the last 6 trading days. The current price is trading near the low of the range at $111,343 down $-1734 or -1.53%

US broader stock indices traded up and down and is closing in the middle The Dow was not as fortunate as it gave back some of the gains from yesterday when it was the one indice that moved higher.

The final numbers shows:

• Dow industrial average fell -17.15 points or -0.04% at 46253.31
• S&P index rose 26.75 points or 0.40% at 6671.05
• NASDAQ index rose 148.38 points or 0.66% at 22670.08

In the US debt market, the yields are modestly higher:

• 2-year yield 3.499%, +2.0 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.623%, +2.3 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.035%, +1.4 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.632%, +0 point basis points.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

it was a funny day in the stock market today as a very strong start saw the S&P 500 up 1% but it was completely erased by the European close. It could have been European selling or it could have been trade war fears after a WSJ report suggesting China will call Trump’s bluff. The thing is, that report was out before the stock market open so it could have been something else or the market could have been slow to pick up on it.

In any case, after falling to a 0.4% decline, the stock market dip buyers arrived and there was a solid finish. The Russell 2000 in particular led again as it hit a new record in part due to strong numbers from financials so far in earnings season.

• S&P 500 +0.3%
• Nasdaq +0.5%
• Russell 2000 +0.8%
• DJIA -0.1%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.9%

The daily SPX kinda looks like a failure to retake the pre-fight highs.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Crude oil is settling at $58.27. That’s down $0.43 or -0.73% day. The high price today reached $59.42. The low price was at $58.20. Both those levels were inside the high and low of yesterday’s trade. The low price yesterday extended to $57.68 while the high price was at $59.82.

Technically, the price remains below a swing area between $58.78 and $60.10. That keeps the sellers in firm control. The low price for the year came in at $55.15.

Persistent trade tensions and supply concerns are weighing on the market. The IEA warned that global oil market could face a surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in 2026.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Guardian spoke with UK Chancellor Reeves and she offered some hints at what is coming Nov 26:

• People didn’t leave last year after higher taxes
• Higher taxes on the wealthy “will be part of the story”
• Reeves pointed to potential cost-savings from the use of new technologies
• Said budget won’t be a return to austerity
• The Guardian writes: “There is also speculation she will revive plans to overhaul tax-free Isas to divert cash towards the UK stock market.”

The later could offer a tailwind to the FTSE 100.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It’s been a strange day in the stock market has big earlier gains have now completely reversed. The S&P 500 is down 14 points after rising by 70 points. What’s unusual is that there doesn’t seem to be anything behind the selling, at least not anything public.

Shares of Nvidia were up 2% in the premarket to $185 but are now down 1.2% and below yesterday’s pre-TACO lows.

What worries me is the chart. Nvidia was unable to regain (or even come close) to the pre-tariff headlines last week. That bas me worried that more traders are starting to head to the sidelines until we get clearer signs of a US-China deal.

The US is trying to play nice but today’s WSJ report highlights that China might be looking for a fight.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• U.S. Treasury Secretary says IMF needs to return to its core mission of providing liquidity, backstops, and intervention when countries are in trouble.

• IMF should sell golf course in Maryland.

• The Trump administration can shift to other tariff authorities if the Supreme Court rules against IEEPA duties.

• Anyone purchasing Russian energy is effectively subsidizing attacks on the Ukrainian people.

• The U.S. Treasury purchased Argentine pesos in the open market this morning.

• As long as Argentina continues enacting sound policy, they will have U.S. support.

• An election victory for Milei’s party would strengthen his ability to veto bad policies.

• When asked if the U.S. Treasury could buy Argentine debt, he said “we could,” but did not elaborate.

• The Argentina swap line will be backed by Special Drawing Rights held in the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund and converted to dollars.

• The U.S. is working on a $20 billion private-sector facility for Argentina that would complement the swap line and help reduce debt.

• Support for Argentina is described as an economic ‘Monroe Doctrine’ for U.S. influence in Latin America.

• Not concerned about systemic economic risk from Argentina.

• Not advocating that the Fed shrink its balance sheet or move away from an ample reserves system.

• The Fed should use quantitative easing sparingly, like antibiotics.

• QE reform is an important consideration for the next Fed Chair choice.

• Disagreements with South Korea over investments can be resolved within the next 10 days.

Summary:
The Treasury Secretary emphasized global and domestic financial stability themes — urging IMF reform toward its liquidity-focused roots, supporting Argentina through dollar-backed swap lines and private financing, and maintaining cautious but supportive engagement in Latin America. He downplayed systemic risks, advocated prudent Fed policy (with QE used sparingly), and hinted at resolving geopolitical and trade tensions, including with South Korea and Russia. The remarks signal a blend of measured monetary restraint, strategic regional engagement, and pragmatic diplomacy

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The WSJ is out with a report saying that China believes Trump won’t tolerate a drop in the stock market in order to fight the trade war.

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is betting that the U.S. economy can’t absorb a prolonged trade conflict with the world’s second-largest economy, according to people close to Beijing’s decision-making. China is holding a firm line because of its conviction, the people said, that an escalating trade war will tank markets, as it did in April after Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs, prompting Beijing to hit back.

This is an odd leak from China and by leaking it to the WSJ it shows that they’re sending a message.

The report says the prospect of a market meltdown will force Trump to negotiate. I’d say that most people in markets agree, especially after the weekend TACO.

According to the people close to Beijing’s decision-making process, Xi’s hard-line strategy is based on the belief that Trump will ultimately fold and offer concessions rather than deploy Washington’s own significant leverage. This confidence was fueled, the people said, by a U.S.-China trade truce struck in May.

The report is from the WSJ’s Lingling Wei, who is well-connected in China.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US officials calling other countries unreliable partners is rich.

On a better note:

• We have had substantial communication with China over the past few days, there will be more forthcoming this week

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• China is exercising economic coercion

That’s rich from a country that’s put tariffs on every country in the world.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Shares of Bank of America are up 4.2% in the pre-market after beating on earnings, revenue and net interest margin. The company also guided to strong margins in Q4.

The Russell 2000 broke out to an all-time high yesterday and financials should keep it supported again today. It’s up 1% in the pre-market.

More broadly, the S&P 500 is up 0.7% with Nvidia leading the way up 2.7% on an upgrade at HSBC.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There is a “clever and generous” bailout coming for farmers as soon as the government shutdown ends, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett told an Axios forum today.

“I
expect that when the government opens that very soon after you’re going
to see what President Trump’s plan for farmers is, but it’s really quite
clever and generous. I can say that,” he said.

Trump has pledged to send tariff money to farmers, and also floated $1000-$2000 checks to Americans. Of course, that money was also pledged by everyone to pay down the deficit.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US-Canada trade talks have gone a bit quiet since last week’s meeting between Carney and Trump but Canadian officials said they were continuing to work on a deal that was focused on steel, aluminum and maybe more.

The comment from Bessent confirms that talks haven’t broken down.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.