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IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

After decreasing from 7.76M to 7.48M in February, job openings dwindled down to 7.19M in March to mark the second consecutive month of decline. Not only did the latest figures undershoot the forecast of 7.49M by a wide margin, but it was also the lowest in six months. This drop was broad-based with sectors such as transportation, warehousing, and utilities, accommodation and food services, construction, federal government, real estate and rental and leasing, and health care and social assistance reporting the largest decreases. 

Meanwhile, consumer confidence plunged once more in April to register a fifth successive month of decline as reported by the Conference Board. April’s fall in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups. The lack of confidence was largely driven by consumers’ expectations for business conditions, employment prospects, and future income – all of which deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future. Despite the gloomy data, demand for the greenback was steady on Tuesday as the dollar index (DXY) reached an overnight high of 99.37.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Consumer spending in Japan increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in March following a downwardly revised 1.3% growth in the previous month, but below market expectations of 3.5%. This report marked the 36th straight month of expansion in retail sales, with rising wages continuing to support consumption. Sales grew for categories such as fuel, automobile, machinery and equipment, clothing and personal goods, and food and beverage. However, demand for the yen has dampened since last week, causing USD/JPY to hover around 142.50 over the last couple of days.

Although consumer inflation in Australia remained unchanged at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter of 2025, it exceeded the market forecast of 2.3%. On a quarterly basis, inflation surged from 0.2% in the previous quarter to 0.9%, coming in higher than the 0.8% estimate. This ‘hot’ CPI print will likely light a fire under the Aussie, driving it higher as the day progresses.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ADP Employment Report (12:15 pm GMT)

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After rebounding strongly in March, private payroll growth is expected to moderate in April. Private payrolls had jumped from 84k in the previous month to 155k in March as sectors such as professional and business services, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, education and health services, led the gains. The ADP is expected to show 114k jobs being added to the private sector while U.S. GDP growth is anticipated to slow significantly in the first quarter of this year. After expanding at an annual rate of 2.5% in the final quarter of last year, economic activity is now forecast to grow at just 0.2% – a figure weighed heavily by the ongoing trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and its key trading partners.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Employment Report (12:15 pm GMT)

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After rebounding strongly in March, private payroll growth is expected to moderate in April. Private payrolls had jumped from 84k in the previous month to 155k in March as sectors such as professional and business services, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, education and health services, led the gains. The ADP is expected to show 114k jobs being added to the private sector while U.S. GDP growth is anticipated to slow significantly in the first quarter of this year. After expanding at an annual rate of 2.5% in the final quarter of last year, economic activity is now forecast to grow at just 0.2% – a figure weighed heavily by the ongoing trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and its key trading partners.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

CPI (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Although consumer inflation in Australia remained unchanged at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter of 2025, it exceeded the market forecast of 2.3%. On a quarterly basis, inflation surged from 0.2% in the previous quarter to 0.9%, coming in higher than the 0.8% estimate. This ‘hot’ CPI print will likely light a fire under the Aussie, driving it higher as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

After a strong rally last week, the Kiwi looks to have run out of steam over the past couple of days as it dipped under 0.5950. Overhead pressures could continue to build on Wednesday as this currency pair slid toward 0.5900 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (11:50 pm GMT 29th April)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Consumer spending in Japan increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in March following a downwardly revised 1.3% growth in the previous month, but below market expectations of 3.5%. This report marked the 36th straight month of expansion in retail sales, with rising wages continuing to support consumption. Sales grew for categories such as fuel, automobile, machinery and equipment, clothing and personal goods, and food and beverage. However, demand for the yen has dampened since last week, causing USD/JPY to hover around 142.50 over the last couple of days.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 1 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Germany CPI (Tentative)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Consumer prices in Germany have moderated lower over the past few months, especially for core CPI which has eased from an annual rate of 3.3% in December to 2.6% in March. Should inflationary pressures continue to dissipate further, the Euro could face some near-term headwinds on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 April to mark the sixth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.40%, 2.65% and 2.25% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track with both headline and core inflation declining in March while services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.
• Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• In particular, the Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 5 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc has given up some of last week’s gains as it reversed off last week’s lows at 0.8046 to briefly climb above 0.8300 on Monday. This currency pair was floating around 0.8230 as Asian markets came online but it could continue to grind higher as demand for safe-haven assets begin to wane.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Cable made a high of 1.3443 on Tuesday before falling below 1.3400. After rallying 3.8% over the past three weeks, traders could now be looking to book profits on this currency pair. Headwinds for the pound are building and we could see Cable drift lower on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Liberal party’s win at the recent Canadian elections marked a fourth successive mandate with Mark Carney resuming his role as prime minister after having replaced Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberals just two months ago. This victory signalled an unexpected comeback for the Liberal party whose popularity had tanked under the leadership of Trudeau. Meanwhile, monthly GDP growth is expected to remain flat in February following a relatively strong gain of 0.4% in January. The ongoing tariff negotiations continue to cloud the outlook for many economies, including Canada, and growth output could take a hit over the next few months.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope – Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After falling sharply by 4.6M in the prior week, the API stockpiles gained 3.8M barrels of crude in the latest report to signal weaker demand for oil in the United States. Coupled with a dampened outlook for global demand due to the ongoing trade policy uncertainties, oil prices fell swiftly this week. WTI oil tumbled over 5% since Monday and prices for this benchmark were slipping toward the $60 mark. Should the EIA report also continue to build and register a fifth successive week of rising inventories, this commodity will face even stronger headwinds.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Trump will deliver ‘Investing in America’ remarks on Wednesday afternoon, US Eastern time
• Chinese markets closed tomorrow, Thursday, through to reopening on Tuesday next week
• US media report – Elon Musk no longer working from White House
• Australian Treasurer Chalmers says says the market expects more interest rate cuts

*

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April 2025 50.4 (expected 49.9, prior 51.2)
• China April official Manufacturing PMI 49.0 (expected of 49.5)

*

• Australian Q1 2025 inflation headline 2.4% y/y (expected 2.2%)

*

• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.2014 (vs. estimate at 7.2670)
• New Zealand April business confidence 49.3 (vs. 57.5 prior )
• FT reports Trump’s top economic adviser Miran ‘out of his depth’ in hedge fund Q&A

*

• Japanese government official expresses mixed feelings on Trump tariffs
• Japan March retail sales +3.1% y/y (vs. expected +3.5%)
• Japan March 2025 preliminary industrial production -1.1% m/m (expected -0.4%)

*

• Toyota and Waymo team up to advance autonomous driving and next-gen vehicles
• UK April business sentiment fell to its lowest level in three months
• Trump says Federal Reserve ‘person’ is not doing a good job
• Billionaire hedge fund guy forecasts gold towards US$5000
• US inflation data due Wednesday – what investment banks expect for March PCE
• Reminder – Goldman Sachs expects the US dollar has further to fall
• Canadian Prime Minister Carney and Trump spoke on the phone
• Oil: private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil build much larger than expected
• Supermicro Computer preannounces a miss in Revenues and EPS. Stock down sharply
• A look at some of the earnings after the close.Starbucks, Visa, First Solar, Snap report.
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Trade data dims outlook for tomorrow’s GDP report
• US indices close higher. S&P up for the sixth consecutive day
• US Treas Sec Bessent says no trade deal is done until Trump announces it
• Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 30 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Australian inflation slowed in the latest reading but still came in ahead of expectations, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its cash rate at its next policy meeting on May 19–20. While softer near-term price pressures and rising global growth risks support the case for easing, the RBA may hold back from adopting a clearly dovish stance just yet.

In China, official PMI data showed a renewed loss of momentum in the factory sector. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, marking the sharpest contraction since December 2023 and reflecting weaker conditions among larger, state-linked enterprises. In contrast, the Caixin manufacturing PMI, which focuses more on smaller, private exporters, eased to 50.4 from 51.2 but remained in expansion territory. The divergence suggests that while broad industrial activity is weakening, smaller firms are showing relative resilience despite mounting tariff headwinds.

New export orders slumped at the fastest pace since July 2023 amid heightened trade tensions, contributing to only a modest rise in overall new business volumes.

Chinese markets are closed for the Labour Day holidays from Tuesday through Monday, limiting immediate reaction to the data.

In commodities, U.S. crude prices came under pressure after the American Petroleum Institute reported a 3.76 million barrel increase in U.S. inventories, stoking some fresh concerns over demand.

Market movement was restrained during the session. AUD/USD has pooped up a little following the CPI data while the USD elsewhere is a touch better bid. Ranges have not been large. While regional equities have been mixed US equity index futures have been heavy during evening trade.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump will be speaking Wednesday:

• 11 am Cabinet meeting (1500 GMT)
• 4 pm ‘Investing in America’ remarks (2000 GMT)
• 8 pm NewsNation Cuomo Townhall: The First 100 Days (0000 GMT)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China will be on holidays from May 1 to May 5 (five days in total).

This is to celebrate Labour Day.

Markets will be closed tomorrow, Thursday, May 1, 2025, and reopen on Tuesday next week.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The euro has fallen out of bed.

Apart from what has already been posted there is no obvious smoking gun.

USD/JPY is a touch better bid also. GBP/USD is a little lower also.

US equity index on Globex have been soft since reopening for evening trade.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April 2025 comes in lower than March but better than expected at 50.4

• expected 49.9, prior 51.2

The details, though …. slowing demand, falling export orders, and rising trade tensions knocked China’s factory momentum in April, with sentiment near record lows.

• Demand & Output: New orders rose only slightly; export orders dropped at the fastest pace since July 2023 due to U.S. tariffs. Output remained in expansion for an 18th month.

• Employment: Jobs shrank again after a brief rebound in March — layoffs most common in investment and intermediate goods sectors.

• Prices: Input costs declined for a second month, driven by weaker commodity prices; firms cut output prices for a fifth straight month.

• Logistics & Inventory: Supply chains faced delays linked to trade tensions; firms ran down inventories amid weak demand.

• Business Confidence: Optimism dropped sharply, hitting the third-lowest level on record, with firms citing trade uncertainty.

• Policy Outlook: Early-year momentum is fading; analysts warn tariff shocks will weigh on growth in Q2–Q3, urging faster policy support.

Earlier from China, the official PMIs:

• China April official Manufacturing PMI 49.0 (expected of 49.5)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The previous month’s PMIs, March 2025, showed the fastest in a year ahead of US tariffs. The April results have fallen back, as was expected. There is probably worse to come in the months ahead as the tariff impact bites deeper.

China March official Manufacturing PMI 49.0, this is a 16-month low

• expected 49.8, prior 50.5

Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.4

• expected 50.6, prior 50.8

Composite PMI 50.2

• prior 51.4

more to come

***

A diffusion index is a statistical measure used to summarise the direction of change in a particular economic indicator, typically based on survey data. It’s most commonly used in business and economic surveys, such as PMIs, to show whether activity is generally expanding, contracting, or staying the same.

How does it work?

• Respondents (like purchasing managers) are usually asked whether key business indicators (e.g. new orders, output, employment) have increased, decreased, or stayed the same compared to the previous month.

Each response is assigned a value:

• Above 50 = Expansion
• Exactly 50 = No change
• Below 50 = Contraction

So, for example: A PMI of 50.5 means a majority of businesses reported growth compared to the previous month.

• A PMI of 49.6 means a majority reported a decline.

The reason diffusion index results (like PMIs) are often viewed positively—even if they don’t rise much—is because of how the index works and what it signals about the direction of economic activity rather than its speed or magnitude.

Here’s why:

Even a small increase above 50 indicates ongoing expansion. For example: If a PMI rises from 50.4 to 50.5, it’s not a big jump—but it still means more businesses are reporting improvement than deterioration.

• The higher the number, the broader the expansion—but as long as it stays above 50, growth is continuing.

A diffusion index doesn’t need to surge to be encouraging. A steady, slightly rising index suggests:

• Resilience in economic activity,

• Confidence among businesses,

• And that contraction risks are low, which is especially important in uncertain or volatile environments.

Diffusion indexes are all about momentum—the general trend in business conditions. Even modest gains reflect:

• Cumulative improvement in areas like new orders or employment,
• And broad-based participation in recovery or growth, which can be more sustainable than sharp spikes.

If the index is rising, even slowly, it shows that more firms are reporting better conditions than worse. That’s a clear contrast to a reading below 50, where the majority see deterioration.

***

In summary:

• A small rise in a diffusion index may not be flashy, but it’s still positive because it means things are getting better, not worse—and in economics, direction and momentum often matter more than size in the short term.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation data from Australia for the January – March quarter and for March month, 2025.

Headline inflation:

+2.4% y/y

• expected 2.2%, prior 2.4%

+0.9% q/q

• expected %, prior 0.2%

Trimmed mean (a measure of core, or underlying inflation)

2.9% y/y

• expected 2.9%, prior 3.2%

0.7% q/q

• expected 0.7%, prior 0.5%

Weighted median (an alternative core measure) 3.0% y/y

• expected 2.9%, prior 3.4%

and 0.7% q/q

• expected 0.7%, prior 0.5%

While a touch on the higher than expected side these results are enough for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its cash rate again its May meeting.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ business survey, business confidence and activity both lower than in March. April 2 was when Trump announced his huge tariffs, though he did back track on them somewhat.

• Business confidence fell 9 points to 49.3
• Expected own activity fell 1 point to 47.7

ANZ comments:

• past own activity (the best GDP indicator in
  the survey) jumped 10 points from 1 to 11, while past employment jumped 8
  points, from -6 to 2.
• Most forward-looking activity indicators were sharply lower
  in the late-month responses.
• Pricing and cost indicators indicate margin squeeze from ongoing cost
  pressures. One-year-ahead inflation expectations were little changed at 2.65%.

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian dollar traders are preparing for a busy morning today, with key inflation data due out in the morning session that could move the currency out of its recent tight range. The Aussie has been trading in a relatively tight range for the last week since charging higher from annual lows hit earlier in the month, as the USD collapsed. The last week has seen the pair kept within a 0.6330/0.6450 range, and a big deviation from expectation on today’s data could see this broken.

Expectation is for the quarter-on-quarter number to show a 0.8% increase, with the year-on-year number coming in with a 2.3% increase—still slightly above the 2% that the Reserve Bank would like to see it at. Anything north of these estimates could see the currency break higher, as expectations for a cut from the RBA are pulled back, whilst a lower number would give the green light for further cuts and see the pair drop back into lower ranges seen earlier in the month.

Resistance 2: 0.6775 – Long-Term Trendline Resistance
Resistance 1: 0.6449 – Trendline Resistance and 2025 High

Support 1: 0.6320 – April 15 Low
Support 2: 0.5912 – Trendline Support and 2025 Low

The post Trade the Aussie on CPI Data Today first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Japan govt official on factory output:

• Environment surrounding production remains highly uncertain
• March motor vehicle production down 5.9%m/m due to lower exports, part supply disruption
• Some manufacturers expressed concern about U.S. tariffs
• Not heard directly U.S. tariff measures have forced manufacturers to change production plan

CopyThe data is here, its pretty poor:

• Japan March 2025 preliminary industrial production -1.1% m/m (expected -0.4%)

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The Bank of Japan are meeting today and Thursday. The Bank is not expected to change its policy settings.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.

How the process works:

• Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day’s trading.
• The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
• Intervention: If the yuan’s value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency’s value.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.