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• Prior month business inventories 0.2%
• Business inventories for March 0.1% vs 0.2% estimate
• Retail inventories ex-Autos 0.4% vs 0.1% last month

Details from the Census Bureau:

• Total sales (March): $1,919.9B, up 0.7% from February 2025 and up 4.5% from March 2024

• Total inventories (March): $2,578.1B, up 0.1% from February 2025 and up 2.5% from March 2024

• Inventories/sales ratio (March): 1.34, down from 1.37 in March 2024

The sales are outpacing the inventory build which could be a problem if tariffs impact supplies going forward. That is still TBD but it seems that at a minimum, tariffs will rise by 10%. What does that do to prices, demand, and inventories?

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 40

Details:

• Single family 37 vs 45 prior
• Prospective buyers 23 vs 25 prior
• Sales expectations 42 vs 43 prior

This matches the lowest since 2022 and — outside of the pandemic period — is the worst since 2012. The west region is particularly soft.

I can’t imagine that today’s touch of 5% in US 30-year yields is going to help the sentiment in the housing market. That said, spending on home-related goods was strong in today’s retail sales report.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There are so many conflicting signals on this war at the moment. It’s impossible to make sense of where it really stands.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s US retail sales report was mostly positive news. The control group was the lone exception but that was on softer grocery store spending while economically-sensitive spots showed some real strength, like food services and drinking places up 0.8%.

The CFO of the world’s biggest retailer had this to say on the call today:

• February was softer than expected, March was back to normal and April was very strong

Within the report there were some signs of consumers stretching dollars toward essentials and value. Comp sales rose 4.5% though with transactions up 1.6%. Again, much of that was in groceries and essentials as general merchandise slipped slightly but it’s not a big red flag. Some could be higher end consumers trading down but you really have to squint to see a soft consumer.

Internationally, they also saw steady but slower spending in Mexico and Canada.

Another sign came from Comcast today, which owns theme parks in the US and around the world. At a conference, the company CFO said there has been no sign of impact from economic uncertainty.

Shares of WMT are down 2.3% pre-market.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was -0.3%
• Manufacturing output -0.4% vs -0.2% prior
• Prior output +0.3% (revised to +0.4%)

There is some major uncertainty on the industrial side of the economy right now. I’m not sure this offers any clarity.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Oil prices sank today after a report said Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal if all economic sanctions are lifted. Trump added to that by saying Iran had agreed to terms and that “we’re getting close to doing a deal with Iran.”

This pushes back on that a bit but there is some serious smoke around a deal. Oil prices have come about $1 off the bottom but that was before this headline.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month was -26.4

Details:

• New Orders 7.5 vs -34.2 last month
• Shipments -13.0 versus -9.1 last month
• Unfilled orders 4.9 versus -1.1 last month
• Delivery time -9.2 versus -2.6 last month
• Inventories 9.7 versus -0.9 last month
• Prices paid 59.8 versus 51.0 last month
• Prices received 43.6 versus 30.7 last month
• Number of employees 16.5 versus 0.2 last month
• Average workweek 2.0 versus -12.7 last month

This is a strong bounce back as trade uncertainty abated and positive expectations increased. I would expect even more improvement in the next months.

The 6-months forward index jumped from 6.9 to 47.2 and the new orders one from 6.6 to 49.7. This just shows that we could really get a covid-like bullwhip scenario where we see a surge in demand and economic activity after the April’s rout.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +2.7%
• PPI -0.5% m/m vs +0.2% expected
• Ex food and energy +3.1% y/y vs +3.1% expected
• Ex food and energy -0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Ex food, energy and trade +2.9% vs +3.4% prior
• Ex food, energy and trade -0.1% vs +0.1% prior

Before today’s data slate, the market was pricing in 74 bps in Fed easing in the year ahead and we now see about 76 bps.

This is good news on inflation pressures.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +1.5%

Details:

• Ex-autos +0.1% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior ex autos +0.6%
• Ex autos and gas +0.2% vs +0.9% prior
• Control group -0.2% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior control +0.4% (revised to +0.5%)
• Retail sales y/y vs +4.91% prior

The control group is the key metric in this report and it was a disappointment. I wouldn’t read too much into it though as it came after a strong month.

Some notable parts of the report

• Food services and drinking places +0.8% (there is high consumer sensitivity here)
• Clothing +0.9% (tariff front running?)
• Building materials and garden +0.9% (good sign on housing)
• Furniture and home furnishings +1.4% (again, good for housing)
• Motor vehicles +0.9% (tariff frontrunning?)
• Grocery stores +0.1%

The only real weakness here is in grocery stores so overall I’d say this report is a strong endorsement of the health of the consumer even after the tariff war kicked off. Some of that could be tariff front-running so we’ll see if it holds up but it’s a good start.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +0.3%
• Manufacturing sales M/M -1.4% vs -1.9% expected
• Prior was +0.2%

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior week 228K
• Initial jobless claims xxM vs 229K estimate
• 4-week moving average initial jobless claims
• Continuing claims x.xxxM vs 1.890M estimate
• Prior week continuing claims 1.879M
• 4-week MA continuing claims

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month -8.10
• For the full report CLICK HERE
• May Empire manufacturing index -9.2 vs -10.0 estimate
• New orders 7.0 versus -8.8 last month
• Prices paid 59.0 versus 50.8 last month.
• Prices received 22.9 versus 28.7 last month.
• Shipments 3.5 versus -2.9 last month
• Employment -5.1 versus -2.6 last month.
• Average work week -3.4 versus -9.1 last month.
• Unfilled orders 4.8 versus 4.1 last month.
• Delivery time 1.0 versus 0.0 last month.
• Inventories 4.8 versus 7.4 last month.

Six month forward business conditions:

• General business conditions -2.0 versus -7.4 last month
• new orders -2.7 versus -6.6 last month.
• Number of employees 11.6 versus 3.4 last month
• average work week -4.8 versus -4.1 last month
• Shipments -3.4 versus -4.8 last month.
• Unfilled orders -9.5 versus -7.4 last month.
• Delivery time -3.8 versus +1.6 last month
• Inventories 1.9 versus -15.6 last month.
• Prices paid 66.7 versus 65.6 last month.
• Prices received 35.2 versus 45.9 last month.
• Capital expenditures -6.7 versus 1.6 last month
• Supply availability -27.6 versus -18.0 last month

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.