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The Guardian spoke with UK Chancellor Reeves and she offered some hints at what is coming Nov 26:

• People didn’t leave last year after higher taxes
• Higher taxes on the wealthy “will be part of the story”
• Reeves pointed to potential cost-savings from the use of new technologies
• Said budget won’t be a return to austerity
• The Guardian writes: “There is also speculation she will revive plans to overhaul tax-free Isas to divert cash towards the UK stock market.”

The later could offer a tailwind to the FTSE 100.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It’s been a strange day in the stock market has big earlier gains have now completely reversed. The S&P 500 is down 14 points after rising by 70 points. What’s unusual is that there doesn’t seem to be anything behind the selling, at least not anything public.

Shares of Nvidia were up 2% in the premarket to $185 but are now down 1.2% and below yesterday’s pre-TACO lows.

What worries me is the chart. Nvidia was unable to regain (or even come close) to the pre-tariff headlines last week. That bas me worried that more traders are starting to head to the sidelines until we get clearer signs of a US-China deal.

The US is trying to play nice but today’s WSJ report highlights that China might be looking for a fight.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• U.S. Treasury Secretary says IMF needs to return to its core mission of providing liquidity, backstops, and intervention when countries are in trouble.

• IMF should sell golf course in Maryland.

• The Trump administration can shift to other tariff authorities if the Supreme Court rules against IEEPA duties.

• Anyone purchasing Russian energy is effectively subsidizing attacks on the Ukrainian people.

• The U.S. Treasury purchased Argentine pesos in the open market this morning.

• As long as Argentina continues enacting sound policy, they will have U.S. support.

• An election victory for Milei’s party would strengthen his ability to veto bad policies.

• When asked if the U.S. Treasury could buy Argentine debt, he said “we could,” but did not elaborate.

• The Argentina swap line will be backed by Special Drawing Rights held in the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund and converted to dollars.

• The U.S. is working on a $20 billion private-sector facility for Argentina that would complement the swap line and help reduce debt.

• Support for Argentina is described as an economic ‘Monroe Doctrine’ for U.S. influence in Latin America.

• Not concerned about systemic economic risk from Argentina.

• Not advocating that the Fed shrink its balance sheet or move away from an ample reserves system.

• The Fed should use quantitative easing sparingly, like antibiotics.

• QE reform is an important consideration for the next Fed Chair choice.

• Disagreements with South Korea over investments can be resolved within the next 10 days.

Summary:
The Treasury Secretary emphasized global and domestic financial stability themes — urging IMF reform toward its liquidity-focused roots, supporting Argentina through dollar-backed swap lines and private financing, and maintaining cautious but supportive engagement in Latin America. He downplayed systemic risks, advocated prudent Fed policy (with QE used sparingly), and hinted at resolving geopolitical and trade tensions, including with South Korea and Russia. The remarks signal a blend of measured monetary restraint, strategic regional engagement, and pragmatic diplomacy

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The WSJ is out with a report saying that China believes Trump won’t tolerate a drop in the stock market in order to fight the trade war.

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is betting that the U.S. economy can’t absorb a prolonged trade conflict with the world’s second-largest economy, according to people close to Beijing’s decision-making. China is holding a firm line because of its conviction, the people said, that an escalating trade war will tank markets, as it did in April after Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs, prompting Beijing to hit back.

This is an odd leak from China and by leaking it to the WSJ it shows that they’re sending a message.

The report says the prospect of a market meltdown will force Trump to negotiate. I’d say that most people in markets agree, especially after the weekend TACO.

According to the people close to Beijing’s decision-making process, Xi’s hard-line strategy is based on the belief that Trump will ultimately fold and offer concessions rather than deploy Washington’s own significant leverage. This confidence was fueled, the people said, by a U.S.-China trade truce struck in May.

The report is from the WSJ’s Lingling Wei, who is well-connected in China.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US officials calling other countries unreliable partners is rich.

On a better note:

• We have had substantial communication with China over the past few days, there will be more forthcoming this week

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• China is exercising economic coercion

That’s rich from a country that’s put tariffs on every country in the world.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Shares of Bank of America are up 4.2% in the pre-market after beating on earnings, revenue and net interest margin. The company also guided to strong margins in Q4.

The Russell 2000 broke out to an all-time high yesterday and financials should keep it supported again today. It’s up 1% in the pre-market.

More broadly, the S&P 500 is up 0.7% with Nvidia leading the way up 2.7% on an upgrade at HSBC.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There is a “clever and generous” bailout coming for farmers as soon as the government shutdown ends, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett told an Axios forum today.

“I
expect that when the government opens that very soon after you’re going
to see what President Trump’s plan for farmers is, but it’s really quite
clever and generous. I can say that,” he said.

Trump has pledged to send tariff money to farmers, and also floated $1000-$2000 checks to Americans. Of course, that money was also pledged by everyone to pay down the deficit.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US-Canada trade talks have gone a bit quiet since last week’s meeting between Carney and Trump but Canadian officials said they were continuing to work on a deal that was focused on steel, aluminum and maybe more.

The comment from Bessent confirms that talks haven’t broken down.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior month -8.70
• NY Fed manufacturing index for October 10.70 vs -1.40 est.

Details from the NY Fed:

• Headline index: Business conditions index rose 19 points to 10.7, signaling modest growth — the third positive reading in four months.

• New orders/shipments: Both increased after last month’s decline (new orders index 3.7 versus -19.6 last month, shipments 14.4 versus -17.3 last month).

• Inventories: Little changed (-1.0 versus -4.9 last month).

• Supply chain: Delivery times lengthened slightly (3.9 versus 0.0 last month), and supply availability worsened (-10.7 versus .8 .8).

• Employment: Modest job gains (employment index 6.2 versus -1.2 last) but a shorter workweek (-4.1 versus -.41 last month).

• Prices: Both input and selling prices rose faster (prices paid 52.4 versus 46.1 last month, prices received 27.2 versus 21.6 last month).

• Capital spending: Plans remained soft (-2.9 versus -3.9 last month).

• Outlook: Firms became more optimistic, with nearly half expecting improvement in coming months; new orders and shipments expected to rise while price pressures persist.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +2.5%
• Wholesale trade vs -1.3% expected (+1.2% prior)
• Canada August manufacturing sales % vs -1.5% expected

USD/CAD was trading flat on the day at 1.4040 ahead of the data.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• After a back and forth start to the week, the dollar now starts to lose momentum
• Gold Technical Analysis: Lack of bearish drivers keeps the bullish momentum intact
• BofA, Morgan Stanley earnings beat estimates in Q3
• EU trade commissioner says to meet with China’s commerce minister next week
• China’s Lin: The US and China should engage in talks
• ECB’s Dolenc: No reason to change rates in the coming months
• Spain September final CPI +3.0% vs +2.9% y/y prelim
• France September final CPI +1.2% vs +1.2% y/y prelim
• Eurozone August industrial production -1.2% vs -1.6% m/m expected
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 10 October -1.8% vs -4.7% prior
• China September M2 money supply +8.4% vs +8.5% y/y expected

Markets:

• AUD leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.6%
• US 10-year yields down 0.7 bps to 4.014%
• Gold up 1.5% to $4,202.09
• WTI crude up 0.2% to $58.83
• Bitcoin down 0.8% to $112,166

It was a decent session in terms of market action, as the focus and attention continues to stay on what will become of US-China trade tensions for the most part.

The dollar is finding itself in a weaker spot even as risk appetite picks back up, with the bond market holding at a critical juncture. After some pushing and pulling this week, the dollar is lower today and is starting to see some shifts in the near-term price bias. That comes as 10-year Treasury yields once again flirts with the 4% mark this week.

EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.1627 and GBP/USD up 0.3% to 1.3355 but aren’t really pushing the upside agenda all too much on the session. USD/JPY is down 0.3% to 151.40 but dipped to just under 151.00 briefly in European morning trade earlier. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is trading back up above 0.6500 – sitting just shy of its 100-day moving average of 0.6532 on the day.

In the equities space, the risk appetite is returning with stocks looking for more solid gains today. In Europe, French stocks are leading the charge amid better political developments back home while also buoyed by LVMH beating earnings estimates. The latter is helping to prop up luxury stocks, which are a key component of the CAC 40 index.

As for US futures, tech shares are seen bouncing back and will join financials today in search of further gains. Q3 earnings beats from BofA and Morgan Stanley in pre-market is helping with the mood at least.

But once again, one of the standout movers is in the commodities space as we see gold jump up to break the $4,200 mark for the first time. Price action remains volatile with the precious metal continuing to weave in and out of the figure level for now. Meanwhile, silver is also trading up over 2% to try and reclaim the $53 mark on the day. It’s the same old story since September until now.

Amid a lack of major economic releases, Fedspeak will be the thing to watch once again in US trading later alongside Trump headlines as usual.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.