IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 June 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

After plummeting from December’s figure of 74 to as low as 52.2 in May, the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment survey improved for the first time in six months in June, based on preliminary findings. The index rose to 60.5, well above market expectations of 53.5, as all five index components increased, with a particularly steep rise for short and long-run expected business conditions, due to a perceived easing of pressures from tariffs. Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed. However, consumers still perceive wide-ranging downside risks to the economy. Furthermore, year-ahead inflation expectations plunged from 6.6% last month to 5.1% this month. Long-run inflation expectations fell for the second straight month, stepping down from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June – both readings are the lowest in three months. Consumers’ fears about the potential impact of tariffs on future inflation have softened somewhat in June. However, inflation expectations remain above readings seen throughout the second half of 2024, reflecting widespread beliefs that trade policy may still contribute to an increase in inflation in the year ahead.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

As Asian markets digest Friday’s consumer sentiment survey and the developments surrounding the latest geopolitical conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, attention also turns to the world’s second-largest economy. China will release key macroeconomic data this morning, specifically industrial production and retail sales for the month of May. Industrial activity grew at an annual rate of 6.1% in April, surpassing expectations of a 5.5% gain. However, this figure eased from the 7.7% growth recorded in March, which was the strongest expansion in industrial output since June 2021, ahead of looming hefty US tariffs. Production output is now expected to ease further, slowing to an annual rate of 5.9% in May. Meanwhile, consumer spending increased by an annual rate of 5.1% in April, moderating from March’s over 1-year high of 5.9%, which also missed market estimates of 5.5%. The slowdown came amidst weak domestic consumption, as households remained cautious due to economic uncertainty, sluggish income growth, and concerns over the impact of rising U.S. tariffs. Retail sales are also anticipated to moderate further, falling to 4.9% in May. If these key data points come in weaker than the original forecasts, demand for key commodities such as iron ore, coal and crude oil may decline.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Manufacturing activity in the state of New York fell from -8.1 in the previous month to -9.2 in May, but came in slightly better than the forecast of a decline of 10, indicating continued but modest declines in business activity. Components such as new orders and shipments turned positive but supply availability worsened and inventories rose at a slower pace, while employment also declined further. June’s estimate of -5.9 points to an ongoing improvement but the reading still indicates contraction.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 7 May 2025.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run, but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased further.
• The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.
• Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilised at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 17 to 18 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Manufacturing activity in the state of New York fell from -8.1 in the previous month to -9.2 in May, but came in slightly better than the forecast of a decline of 10, indicating continued but modest declines in business activity. Components such as new orders and shipments turned positive but supply availability worsened and inventories rose at a slower pace, while employment also declined further. June’s estimate of -5.9 points to an ongoing improvement but the reading still indicates contraction. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Broad weakness in the U.S. dollar will likely keep the Aussie supported this week. This currency pair hovered around 0.6480 at the beginning of Monday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA reduced its cash rate by 25 basis points (bps), bringing it down to 3.85% on 20 May, following a pause on 1 April.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Data on inflation for the March quarter provided further evidence that inflation continues to ease. At 2.9%, annual trimmed mean inflation was below 3% for the first time since 2021 and headline inflation, at 2.4%, remained within the target band of 2 to 3%.
• While recent tariff announcements have resulted in a rebound in financial market prices, there is still considerable uncertainty about the final scope of the tariffs and policy responses in other countries, contributing to a weaker outlook for growth, employment and inflation in Australia.
• Private domestic demand appears to have been recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggests that labour market conditions remain tight. Employment is continuing to grow, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers.
• Looking through quarterly volatility, wage growth has softened over the past year or so but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation stemming from both domestic and international developments. While the central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as real incomes rise, recent data suggest that the pick-up will be a little slower than was expected three months ago.
• There is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is even slower than this, resulting in continued subdued growth in aggregate demand and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• With inflation expected to remain around target, the Board therefore judged that an easing in monetary policy at this meeting was appropriate, assessing that this move would make monetary policy somewhat less restrictive.
• The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 8 July 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi climbed above the threshold of 0.6000 as markets reopened this morning. With no major domestic catalysts, persistent weakness in the greenback will provide a lift for this currency pair.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.25% on 28 May, marking the sixth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee stated that annual consumer price index inflation increased to 2.5% in the first quarter of 2025 while inflation expectations across firms and households have also risen.
• However, core inflation is declining and there is spare productive capacity in the economy; these conditions are consistent with inflation returning to the mid-point of the 1 to 3% target band over the medium term.
• The New Zealand economy is recovering after a period of contraction as high commodity prices and lower interest rates are supporting overall economic activity but recent developments in the international economy are expected to reduce global economic growth.
• Both tariffs and increased policy uncertainty overseas are expected to moderate New Zealand’s economic recovery and reduce medium-term inflation pressures. However, there remains considerable uncertainty around these judgements.
• Labour market conditions remain weak while the unemployment rate is expected to peak this quarter at 5.2%.
• Inflation is within the target band, and the Committee is well placed to respond to domestic and international developments to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 9 July 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen, causing USD/JPY to remain under pressure. However, the interest rate decision by the Bank of Japan takes place tomorrow, 17th of June. Should this central bank move ahead with another pause, demand for the yen could wane to provide some lift for USD/JPY in the near term.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 1 May, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economic growth is likely to moderate, as trade and other policies in each jurisdiction lead to a slowdown in overseas economies and to a decline in domestic corporate profits and other factors, although factors such as accommodative financial conditions are expected to provide support. Thereafter, Japan’s economic growth rate is likely to rise, with overseas economies returning to a moderate growth path.
• The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) is likely to be in the range of 2.0-2.5% for fiscal 2025, in the range of 1.5-2.0% for fiscal 2026, and at around 2% for fiscal 2027. The effects of the past rise in import prices and of the recent rise in food prices such as rice prices – these factors have pushed up the inflation rate so far – are expected to wane.
• Meanwhile, underlying CPI inflation is likely to be sluggish, mainly due to the deceleration in the economy. Thereafter, however, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually.
• Regarding the employment and income situation, despite the deceleration in the economy, labour market conditions are likely to remain tight, as it will become more difficult for labour supply of women and seniors to increase.
• Comparing the projections through fiscal 2026 with those presented in the previous Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), the projected real GDP growth rate for fiscal 2024 is somewhat higher, but the projected growth rates for fiscal 2025 and 2026 are lower due to the effects of trade and other policies in each jurisdiction.
• There are various risks to the outlook. In particular, it is extremely uncertain how trade and other policies in each jurisdiction will evolve and how overseas economic activity and prices will react to them. It is therefore necessary to pay due attention to the impact of these developments on financial and foreign exchange markets and on Japan’s economic activity and prices.
• With regard to the risk balance, risks to economic activity are skewed to the downside for fiscal 2025 and 2026. Risks to prices are also skewed to the downside for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 17 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

After rallying as high as 1.1631 last week, the Euro settled around 1.1550 on Friday. This currency pair will likely remain elevated due to the persistent weakness in the greenback.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 5 June to mark the seventh successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.15%, 2.40% and 2.00% respectively.
• Inflation is currently at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target. In the baseline of the new Eurosystem staff projections, headline inflation is set to average 2.0% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. The downward revisions compared with the March projections, by 0.3 percentage points for both 2025 and 2026, mainly reflect lower assumptions for energy prices and a stronger euro. Staff expect inflation excluding energy and food to average 2.4% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 and 2027, broadly unchanged since March.
• Staff see real GDP growth averaging 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027. The unrevised growth projection for 2025 reflects a stronger-than-expected first quarter combined with weaker prospects for the remainder of the year. While the uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to weigh on business investment and exports, especially in the short term, rising government investment in defence and infrastructure will increasingly support growth over the medium term.
• Higher real incomes and a robust labour market will allow households to spend more. Together with more favourable financing conditions, this should make the economy more resilient to global shocks. Wage growth is still elevated but continues to moderate visibly, and profits are partially buffering its impact on inflation.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• The Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, and it is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The next meeting is on 24 July 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

PPI (6:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

Producer prices in Switzerland rose at a monthly rate of 0.1% in March and April, with April’s result missing forecasts of a 0.2% rise. This increase was driven by higher costs for machinery, while petroleum products and natural gas became cheaper. May forecast points to another month of gains at the same monthly rate of 0.1%. However, demand for the Swiss franc continues to be dictated by safe-haven flows, especially with the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifying over the weekend.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Cable hit a high of 1.3627 last Friday before settling around 1.3573. With no major domestic catalysts, this currency pair should continue to remain elevated as the U.S. dollar remains out of favour with investors and traders alike.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 5 to 4 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps), bringing it down to 4.25% on 8 May 2025.
• Two members preferred a larger cut of 50 bps, while two opted to hold rates steady at 4.5%.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Progress on disinflation in domestic price and wage pressures is generally continuing. Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 2.6% in March from 2.8% in February, close to expectations in the February Report.
• Although indicators of pay growth remain elevated, a significant slowing is still expected over the rest of the year.
• Wholesale energy prices have fallen back since the February Report. Previous increases in energy prices are still likely to drive up CPI inflation from April onwards, to 3.5% for 2025 Q3, but is expected to fall back thereafter.
• Underlying UK GDP growth is judged to have slowed since the middle of 2024 and has been much less volatile than growth in headline GDP – growth was expected to have been around zero in 2025 Q1, well below Bank staff’s projection for headline growth of 0.6%.
• Underlying employment growth has also softened recently and the labour market has continued to loosen. The ratio of vacancies to unemployment has fallen further and is now judged to be below its equilibrium level – the impact of higher Employers’ National Insurance Contributions (NICs) on employment appears to have been fairly small to date.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Surging oil prices and a weak U.S. dollar have functioned as strong overhead pressures for USD/CAD. This currency pair has shed nearly 2.7% since mid-May, falling under the threshold of 1.3600 last week. The downward trajectory looks set to extend even further this week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% on 4th June – marking the second consecutive meeting where rates were kept on hold.
• The Governing Council noted that the ongoing increase and decrease of various U.S. tariffs, coupled with highly uncertain outcomes of bilateral trade negotiations and tariff rates remaining well above their levels at the beginning of 2025, placed downside risks on growth and lifted inflation expectations, warranting caution regarding the continuation of monetary easing.
• The higher uncertainty stemmed from the absence of a clear tariff path by the U.S. and persistent threats of new trade actions, which prompted the BoC Governing Council to highlight risks such as the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports.
• Canada’s economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%, slightly stronger than the original forecast, while the composition of GDP growth was largely as expected. Consumption slowed from its very strong fourth-quarter pace, but continued to grow despite a large drop in consumer confidence.
• Housing activity was down, driven by a sharp contraction in resales, while government spending also declined. The economy is expected to be considerably weaker in the second quarter, with the strength in exports and inventories reversing and final domestic demand remaining subdued.
• The labour market has weakened, particularly in trade-intensive sectors, and unemployment has risen to 6.9% while CPI inflation eased to 1.7% in April, as the elimination of the federal consumer carbon tax reduced inflation by 0.6%.
• The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation, as well as other measures of underlying inflation, moved up, while recent surveys indicate that households continue to expect that tariffs will raise prices and many businesses say they intend to pass on the costs of higher tariffs.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• The Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 30 July 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

China Industrial Production (2:00 am GMT)

China Retail Sales (2:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran further increased concerns surrounding supply disruption fears within the Middle East, especially through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices surged last week, with WTI oil futures rallying over 12% before closing at $72.98 per barrel last Friday. Meanwhile, China will release key macroeconomic data this morning, specifically industrial production and retail sales for the month of May. Industrial activity grew at an annual rate of 6.1% in April, surpassing expectations of a 5.5% gain. However, this figure eased from the 7.7% growth recorded in March, which was the strongest expansion in industrial output since June 2021, ahead of looming hefty US tariffs. Production output is now expected to ease further, slowing to an annual rate of 5.9% in May. Meanwhile, consumer spending increased by an annual rate of 5.1% in April, moderating from March’s over 1-year high of 5.9%, which also missed market estimates of 5.5%. The slowdown came amidst weak domestic consumption, as households remained cautious due to economic uncertainty, sluggish income growth, and concerns over the impact of rising U.S. tariffs. Retail sales are also anticipated to moderate further, falling to 4.9% in May. If these key data points come in weaker than the original forecasts, demand for key commodities such as iron ore, coal and crude oil may decline.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 June 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Middle East Conflict Rocks Markets – Oil up 7%

Global financial markets were rocked on Friday after Israel launched strikes on Iran, and the conflict has escalated over the last few days with missile and drone attacks continuing over the weekend. Global stock indices were hit across the board, the three major US indices all closing the day down, the Dow leading the way, finishing off 1.79%, with the S&P and Nasdaq following in its wake, closing down 1.13% and 1.30% respectively. The dollar and US Treasury yields pushed higher as haven flows came through the market, the DXY up 0.38% to 98.18, while the 2-year yield gained 4.0 basis points to move back up to 3.947%, and the 10-year added 3.9 basis points to 4.399%. Oil was a huge mover on Friday, Brent gaining 7.02% to move up to $74.23 a barrel, and WTI jumping 7.26% to $72.98 a barrel. Gold also jumped higher through resistance levels, up 1.39% on the day to close at $3,432.19 an ounce.

Middle East Conflict to Set the Tone for the Week

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran is likely to set the tone for the trading week ahead, as investors digest fresh updates on an almost hourly basis. Many traders are kicking themselves, as we did get a strong clue that something was brewing when President Trump announced that he would be evacuating personnel from the region in the middle of last week; however, most did not anticipate this level of conflict. Markets have already seen significant moves, and traders will be looking at recent history for clues on how prolonged this conflict will be and how far markets will move. However, for the early trading sessions of the week, most market participants are expecting more volatility across all products, with risk trades in general focus and oil products specifically. The risk clearly sits with further escalation at this point in time; however, things can change swiftly, especially in that region, and any positive indications from either side could see some sharp corrections.

Geopolitics in Focus with a Light Calendar Start to the Week

There is no doubt that geopolitics are set to dominate market talk today, with the escalating conflict in the Middle East at the forefront of market moves. However, there are a couple of key macroeconomic updates due out today, and traders will be aware that it is a busy week ahead on the calendar. The Asian session sees a big Chinese data dump midway through the trading day, and any big surprises will see moves in local markets. The main focus will be on Industrial Production (exp. 5.9% y/y) and Retail Sales (exp. 4.9% y/y) data, and the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to remain steady at 5.1%. There is little on the cards in the London session today, but the New York session does see the release of the latest Empire State Manufacturing Index data (exp. -5.9), which could add some volatility to US markets. However, anything further out of the Middle East or updates on trade talks will probably dominate flow.

The post General Market Analysis – 16/06/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has just bounced off the pivot and could potentially make a bullish move in the short term, and rise toward the 1st resistance 

Pivot: 97.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 94.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 101.87
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level,  rising toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1447

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up to resume the uptrend.

 1st support: 1.1210
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 1.1712

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 164.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 162.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 168.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, providing a significant level for a potential bearish reversal and acting as a key area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/GBP: 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off the pivot, and move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8524

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8447
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8612
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level, rising toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3430

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound..

1st support: 1.3108
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3768
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 194.11

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 189.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 199.54
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, providing a significant level for a potential bearish reversal and acting as a key area that could halt any further upward movement

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level, rising toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8081

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.7913
Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8308
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 143.79

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 139.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 148.91
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price is rising toward the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the downward momentum.

Pivot: 1.3725

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.3430
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3837

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns closely with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is rising toward the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support. However, the presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the upward momentum.

Pivot: 0.6545

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6396

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6680
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is rising toward the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support. However, the presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the upward momentum.

Pivot: 0.6121
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5947

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6257

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the upward momentum.

Pivot: 41,520.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 40,494.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 43,294.84

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns closely with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the upward momentum.

Pivot: 23,352.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 22,423.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,332.65
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the upward momentum.

Pivot: 5,796.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 5,532.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,127.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the upward momentum.

Pivot: 101,082.81

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 94,030.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 110,969.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the upward momentum.

Pivot: 2,407.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns closely with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 2,092.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,816.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 71.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 65.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 75.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns closely with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce off this level, rising toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 3,384.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 3,317.56
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,500.02
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 16th June 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Middle East:

• Israeli media, says Iranian attacks on Tel Aviv, Haifa heaviest barrage since war began
• ‘Unprecedented’ number of US Air Force aerial refueling tankers heading toward Europe (not necessarily to the Middle East, but perhaps)
• Israel has detected another wave of ballistic missiles launched from Iran
• Trump says US will continue to support Israel
• Reports that Iran tells Qatar, Oman it won’t negotiate with US ‘while under attack’
• Al Jazeera cite Iran Foreign Minister: “will prepare the ground for a return to diplomacy”
• A US official has said again that the US is not considering joining the war with Iran

China:

• China refuses to approve exports of specific rare earth metals used in US weapon systems
• China stats spokesperson: Economic recovery foundation needs strengthening
• China Industrial Output May 2025 +5.8% y/y (expected 5.9%, prior +6.1%)
• All China May new home prices -3.5% y/y (April -4.0%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1789 (vs. estimate at 7.1854)

Other:

• ICYMI – Bank of Japan to consider halving JGB taper pace from 2026
• New Zealand surveyed economists expect turnaround to slightly better growth in year ahead
• ICYMI Trump over the weekend: said “possible” the US could get involved in Israel-Iran
• South Korea says it will provide financial and shipping support to exporters
• ICYMI – New bank loans in China rose less than expected in May
• Asking prices for UK homes show biggest June fall since 2011
• New Zealand’s Services PMI for May remains in deep contraction at 44.0 vs. prior 48.1
• USD/JPY has risen above 144.50
• Oil futures open higher to begin the new week / US equity index futures lower
• Futures trade is about to open for the new week – Israel-Iran attacks continue
• PBOC says it will will inject cash via outright reverse repos for the second time
• Trade ideas thread – Monday, 16 June, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• Monday open levels, indicative FX prices, 16 June 2025

Tensions between Israel and Iran surged over Sunday and Monday, as both sides launched fresh attacks, fuelling fears of a broader regional conflict.

The Israeli Defence Forces struck missile sites in central Iran, along with Revolutionary Guard facilities in Qazvin and the Parchin military complex near Tehran. Iran responded with its most extensive missile barrage to date, with footage suggesting ballistic missile impacts at the Haifa Oil Refinery and near Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

Gold rose for a fourth straight session to a near two-month high as safe-haven demand picked up. Oil gapped higher at the open, buoyed by reports that Israeli strikes may have targeted Iranian energy infrastructure. However, prices later retraced, filling the gap as markets assessed escalation risks.

Adding to concerns over potential regional spillover, a large-scale military airlift appears to be underway, with an unusually high number of U.S. Air Force KC-135 and KC-46 aerial refueling tankers departing from bases across the U.S. and seemingly preparing to cross the Atlantic toward Europe.

—

Japanese government bond prices fell in the Tokyo morning session as inflation concerns outweighed safe-haven demand. Yields rose, tracking oil prices higher amid the Israel-Iran tensions. The Bank of Japan meets today and Tuesday, with policy expected to remain unchanged, though focus is on potential plans to slow the pace of JGB tapering from 2026. USD/JPY rose during the session.

—

China’s new home prices fell at the fastest pace in seven months in May, down 0.22% from April, highlighting persistent weakness in the property sector and prompting renewed official pledges to stabilise the market.

However, the broader economic picture was less downbeat. Retail sales jumped 6.4% y/y in May – the strongest pace since December and well above expectations – helped by shopping festival promotions. The rebound in consumption offset softer-than-expected industrial output growth (+5.8%) and modest investment data. Analysts suggested further policy support remains likely, though current conditions may not yet warrant large-scale stimulus.

—

The USD was broadly firmer, yen and CHF on the weaker end of the spectrum.

Other:

• Group of Seven leaders meet in Canada this week. There are many other nations in attendance, trade talks with Trump top of the agenda.
• the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet on Wednesday
• Bank of Japan statement is due Tuesday, Japan time (see above), as always, there is no firm time scheduled for the release

—

Brent update, gap and back-fill:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Japan begins its two-day monetary policy meeting today, tune in tomorrow for the results from this:

• BOJ officials expect the benchmark interest rate left at 0.5%
• BOJ now expected to keep interest rates unchanged through to year-end – survey
• BOJ expected to hold rates, slow pace of bond tapering amid market strain

As for today, it’s a light calendar apart from the data from China. Retail sales and investment are epxtected just slightly down whiel a boost from industrial output is expected.

Eyes on the headlines with special attention on the Middle East:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China controls global supply of samarium, a rare earth metal critical for U.S. and allied military production—fighter jets, missiles, and more.

• Supply disruptions in recent months have come just as Western nations are scrambling to restock depleted weapons inventories due to support for Ukraine and Israel.

• The recent U.S.-China trade truce left military-use rare earth exports unresolved.

• At the London negotiations, Chinese officials linked export approvals for certain military-grade rare earths—including samarium—to U.S. restrictions on advanced AI chip exports to China.

• China refuses to approve exports of specific rare earth metals used in U.S. weapon systems, maintaining a chokepoint in the global supply chain.

• Beijing offered to fast-track civilian-use export licenses for trusted U.S. firms and opened a limited “green channel,” military-use materials remain blocked.

• The U.S. has said there will be no quid pro quo on lifting AI chip curbs in return for access to rare earths.

• The U.S. may extend tariffs on Chinese goods beyond the August 10 deadline, casting doubt on a comprehensive deal.

• China’s rare earth monopoly, especially in refining and processing, continues to be a key strategic vulnerability for the West.

• Analysts warn that fundamental issues—like trade imbalance and critical minerals—won’t be resolved soon, possibly not during Trump’s term.

• The talks reflect Beijing’s readiness to use rare earths as geopolitical leverage.

• Ryan Hass of Brookings notes the Trump administration is learning it can’t secure another one-sided trade deal, as China is increasingly assertive.

The info comes via various reports, Reuters, New York Times.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) spokesperson:

• Geneva discussions benefit trade relations between China, US

• China online sales promotions boosted retail sales in May

• China trade program boosts retail sales in May
• Many uncertainties in the international environment, foundation of economic recovery needs to be strengthened
• Policy toolkit is well-stocked, has the flexibility to adjust macro policies according to changing circumstances

Data is here:

• China Industrial Output May 2025 +5.8% y/y (expected 5.9%, prior +6.1%)

Retail slaes growth in May was the fastest since December 2023

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

That’s a very good retail sales result, well ahead of expected and April. Retail sales is an indication to household consumption.

• at 6.4% y/y it’s the fastest since December 2023

Industrial production was a slight miss, and the slowest growth since November 2024.

More:

• China end-May surveyed unemployment rate 5.0% vs. 5.1% expected, 5.1% prior

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A large-scale military airlift seems to be in progress, with an unusually high number of U.S. Air Force KC-135 and KC-46 aerial refueling tankers departing from bases across the U.S. and apparently preparing to head across the Atlantic toward Europe:

• 17* KC-135 tankers, so far
• 4* KC-46 tankers, so far

More are preparing for take off.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

All China may new home prices -3.5% y/y (April -4.0%)

• All China may new home prices -0.2% m/m (April 0%) – Reuters calculation

No sign of an end on sight for the China property malaise as yet in this data.

Last last week Guangzhou introduced new policies to boost housing market, including

• fully cancels restrictions on property purchases, resale and prices

–

There is more data due from China at the top of the hour, mixed results expected:

• Economic calendar in Asia Monday, June 16, 2025 – China data

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Iran’s most recent wave of missiles fired at Israel:

• Israel has detected another wave of ballistic missiles launched from Iran

reported by Israeli media as the heaviest barrage since war began.

• Multiple impacts in Tel Aviv and Haifa
• Haifa’s power plant is on fire after being struck

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Ballistic missiles launched from Iran towards Israel. Impacts expected in the next few minutes:

• Multiple launches from Isfahan and other areas in Iran
• Early warnings given for the entire country of Israel
• Red alerts in Northern and Southern Israel
• Israeli army says air defense systems are working to intercept missiles
• There have been interceptions around Haifa
• Interceptions seen over Northern Israel
• Multiple impacts have been reported in the Tel Aviv area

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.