• Prior month -8.70
• NY Fed manufacturing index for October 10.70 vs -1.40 est.

Details from the NY Fed:

• Headline index: Business conditions index rose 19 points to 10.7, signaling modest growth — the third positive reading in four months.

• New orders/shipments: Both increased after last month’s decline (new orders index 3.7 versus -19.6 last month, shipments 14.4 versus -17.3 last month).

• Inventories: Little changed (-1.0 versus -4.9 last month).

• Supply chain: Delivery times lengthened slightly (3.9 versus 0.0 last month), and supply availability worsened (-10.7 versus .8 .8).

• Employment: Modest job gains (employment index 6.2 versus -1.2 last) but a shorter workweek (-4.1 versus -.41 last month).

• Prices: Both input and selling prices rose faster (prices paid 52.4 versus 46.1 last month, prices received 27.2 versus 21.6 last month).

• Capital spending: Plans remained soft (-2.9 versus -3.9 last month).

• Outlook: Firms became more optimistic, with nearly half expecting improvement in coming months; new orders and shipments expected to rise while price pressures persist.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +2.5%
• Wholesale trade vs -1.3% expected (+1.2% prior)
• Canada August manufacturing sales % vs -1.5% expected

USD/CAD was trading flat on the day at 1.4040 ahead of the data.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• After a back and forth start to the week, the dollar now starts to lose momentum
• Gold Technical Analysis: Lack of bearish drivers keeps the bullish momentum intact
• BofA, Morgan Stanley earnings beat estimates in Q3
• EU trade commissioner says to meet with China’s commerce minister next week
• China’s Lin: The US and China should engage in talks
• ECB’s Dolenc: No reason to change rates in the coming months
• Spain September final CPI +3.0% vs +2.9% y/y prelim
• France September final CPI +1.2% vs +1.2% y/y prelim
• Eurozone August industrial production -1.2% vs -1.6% m/m expected
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 10 October -1.8% vs -4.7% prior
• China September M2 money supply +8.4% vs +8.5% y/y expected

Markets:

• AUD leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.6%
• US 10-year yields down 0.7 bps to 4.014%
• Gold up 1.5% to $4,202.09
• WTI crude up 0.2% to $58.83
• Bitcoin down 0.8% to $112,166

It was a decent session in terms of market action, as the focus and attention continues to stay on what will become of US-China trade tensions for the most part.

The dollar is finding itself in a weaker spot even as risk appetite picks back up, with the bond market holding at a critical juncture. After some pushing and pulling this week, the dollar is lower today and is starting to see some shifts in the near-term price bias. That comes as 10-year Treasury yields once again flirts with the 4% mark this week.

EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.1627 and GBP/USD up 0.3% to 1.3355 but aren’t really pushing the upside agenda all too much on the session. USD/JPY is down 0.3% to 151.40 but dipped to just under 151.00 briefly in European morning trade earlier. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is trading back up above 0.6500 – sitting just shy of its 100-day moving average of 0.6532 on the day.

In the equities space, the risk appetite is returning with stocks looking for more solid gains today. In Europe, French stocks are leading the charge amid better political developments back home while also buoyed by LVMH beating earnings estimates. The latter is helping to prop up luxury stocks, which are a key component of the CAC 40 index.

As for US futures, tech shares are seen bouncing back and will join financials today in search of further gains. Q3 earnings beats from BofA and Morgan Stanley in pre-market is helping with the mood at least.

But once again, one of the standout movers is in the commodities space as we see gold jump up to break the $4,200 mark for the first time. Price action remains volatile with the precious metal continuing to weave in and out of the figure level for now. Meanwhile, silver is also trading up over 2% to try and reclaim the $53 mark on the day. It’s the same old story since September until now.

Amid a lack of major economic releases, Fedspeak will be the thing to watch once again in US trading later alongside Trump headlines as usual.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Market index 317.2 vs 323.1 prior
• Purchase index 166.0 vs 170.6 prior
• Refinance index 1168.0 vs 1180.2 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.42% vs 6.43% prior

This is never a market moving release. Mortgage applications are generally inversely correlated to mortgage rates.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

European trade commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, is due to meet with China’s commerce minister, Wang Wentao, next week with both sides set to discuss the recent development that saw China step up export controls on rare earth minerals. This just confirms the plans that were mentioned yesterday here.

Don’t hold your breath in expecting any major breakthroughs though. This is China’s ace card in trying to pressure the US and they will definitely use this as a bargaining chip to not allow Trump to dictate the conversation in a possible meeting with Xi Jinping later this month.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 16/10/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior +8.8%
• New yuan loans ¥1.29 trillion vs ¥1.47 trillion expected
• Prior ¥590.0 billion

New bank loans picked back up in September but misses on estimates once again. As much as Beijing is trying its best to stimulate credit growth, weak private demand remains a big problem and that is something that they have to address via other means it would seem.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior +0.3%; revised to +0.5%

Industrial output in the euro area slumped once again, but at least less than expected. Still, the index for industrial production now falls to its lowest since January but at least is 1.1% higher compared to August last year. The breakdown shows a drop in output for intermediate goods (-0.2%), energy (-0.6%), capital goods (-2.2%), and durable consumer goods (-1.6%). And that is only slightly offset by a rise in output for non-durable consumer goods (+0.1%). The drag from Germany here is the most notable for the month of August.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Yesterday, we got a strong rebound in the US stock markets. The first 50% of the rally might have started due to CNBC announcing that US Trade Representative Greer would appear on TV. But let’s also say that it might have been just a technical dip-buying move as prices fell into the Friday’s lows at the cash open.

Now, Greer didn’t really say anything new but he did deliver two key comments:

• We always watch the stock and bond markets.
• We want to make sure the market responds to appropriate info.

That second comment is key. It sounds like they don’t want the market to think this is going to be another April. They want the market to keep expecting a de-escalation.

Just a day earlier, we got US Treasury Secretary Bessent sounding a bit more aggressive even though he didn’t say anything new as well. Nonetheless, the markets didn’t like his comments. That was then followed by the news of the Chinese taking some countermeasures overnight that triggered another wave of risk-off.

It’s curious that after the selloff, USTR Greer appeared on TV with more soothing words. As if it was on purpose. This is something that the Fed also does in unique circumstances when the market misinterprets their message.

Even Trump’s late post on Truth Social threatening a termination of cooking oil business with China sounds like a very weak move. The most important subject is rare earths.

To me, this suggests a limited pain threshold by the US administration which shouldn’t be surprising given the overstretched positioning in the stock markets. The Friday’s selloff was so aggressive for this reason. So, if things go south between now and November 1, then we could indeed have another April-like selloff.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Stocks Mixed in Volatile Markets – Nasdaq down 0.8%

US stock markets were mixed yesterday. The Dow rallied well after bank earnings beat expectations and Jerome Powell made dovish comments with regard to the jobs market; however, negative updates from the White House on Chinese trade pulled the S&P and Nasdaq lower. The Dow added 0.44% on the day to push up to 46,270, while the S&P fell 0.16% to 6,644 and the Nasdaq dropped 0.76% to 22,521. The dollar ultimately fell after a whippy day’s trading, the DXY down 0.23% to 99.04, while Treasury yields finished close to flat, the 2-year losing 2.1 basis points to move to 3.481%, while the benchmark 10-year did close flat at 4.032%. Oil fell again on the increased China–US trade tensions and an IEA warning on oversupply in the coming year, Brent down 1.71% to $62.24 and WTI down 1.33% to $58.70. Gold hit another record level in choppy trading, ultimately closing up 0.79% at $4,142.92 an ounce.

Oil Contracts Looking Weak Again

Oil prices fell again in trading yesterday as the planets started to align for a bigger trend to the downside for ‘black gold’, while its shiny yellow counterpart continues to drive higher to fresh records on a daily basis. Geopolitical concerns continue to raise demand issues for oil, and they do not seem to be receding, while the supply side of the equation also looks to be conspiring to push prices lower. The International Energy Agency warned of a huge oversupply in 2026 as OPEC+ continue to plan for production increases. WTI dipped under $58 in trading yesterday and is now within touching distance of the annual low just above $55, and a break here could open the way for a move into fresh downside ranges, with the next major support levels down near 2020 lows under $40 a barrel.

Geopolitics and Central Banks in Play Again Today

Geopolitical updates continue to dominate market sentiment this week, and traders are again expecting updates from China and the US to dictate moves in the sessions ahead today. However, there are some key data updates out, and we do hear from some senior central bankers, both of which could add further volatility to the mix. The Asian session will have a strong focus on China again today, not just for any further updates on trade issues, but also because we have key CPI (exp. -0.2% y/y) and PPI (exp. -2.3% y/y) data due out midway through the day. There is nothing of note due out in the European session, but focus will again be on Washington, D.C. later in the day, with central bankers gathering there this week. Fed members Miran, Waller, and Schmid are due to speak today, as well as the MPC’s Breedon and RBA Governor Michele Bullock.

The post General Market Analysis – 15/10/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 98.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.53
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1618

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1471

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1726

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 176.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 174.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 177.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 200% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.8693

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8657
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8725
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3392

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3269
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3513
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 202.86

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 201.04
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 204.86
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.7992

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7923
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 0.8104
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 150.91

Supporting reasons: This level is identified as a pullback support and a prior breakout zone. After a strong bullish impulse above this area, a retest could invite renewed buying interest.

1st support: 149.82

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 153.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance.This  is a significant resistance that could cap further upward movement and coincide with profit-taking zones for bullish positions

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                                

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish bounce off toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.4012

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 1.3919

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4156

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6509

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback zone where any brief bullish recovery could find resistance before resuming the bearish trend.

1st support: 0.6454

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6585

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, this level could cap upside potential in the current bearish structure.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5762

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5698

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5803

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 46182.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 45,239.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 46,854.31

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,511.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 24,080.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,771.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 6,697.28

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 6,520.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,760.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 115,113.31

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance  that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement,, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 110,041.57

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 119,828.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,372.65

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance  that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 3,894.07

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,642.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 60.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 58.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 63.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could fall toward the pivot and make a bullish rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,055.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up.

1st support: 3,953.04
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,170.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistancethat is supported by the 200% Fibonacci extension and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 15th October 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 15 October 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The US session was dominated by three major themes: disappointing small business sentiment data and dovish Federal Reserve commentary reinforcing rate cut expectations; strong but complex bank earnings that drove divergent stock reactions; and escalating US-China trade tensions that triggered safe-haven flows into gold and Treasuries while pressuring equities, oil, and cryptocurrencies

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Wednesday’s Asian session centers on critical Chinese economic data that will indicate whether Beijing’s stimulus measures are gaining traction, alongside ongoing US-China trade negotiations that remain fluid despite recent conciliatory rhetoric. The RBA Governor’s speech will provide insights into Australia’s monetary policy trajectory, while elevated gold prices reflect persistent safe-haven demand.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar faces a complex path forward, with near-term support from political instability abroad offset by Fed rate cuts, trade war risks, and government shutdown impacts. Most analysts expect the dollar to remain range-bound with a mild bearish bias through year-end unless significant safe-haven demand materializes or trade negotiations break down completely.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 16–17, 2025, meeting, marking the first policy rate adjustment since December 2024 after five consecutive holds.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objective of achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, acknowledging recent labor market softening and continued tariff-driven price pressures.
• Policymakers expressed elevated concern about downside risks to growth, citing a stalling labor market, modest job creation, and an unemployment rate drifting up toward 4.4%. At the same time, inflation remains above target, with CPI at 3.2% and core inflation at 3.1% as of August 2025; higher energy and food prices, largely attributable to tariffs, continue to weigh on headline measures.
• Although economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter, the growth outlook has weakened. Q3 GDP growth is estimated near 1.0% (annualized), with full-year 2025 GDP growth guidance revised to 1.2%, reflecting slowing household consumption and tighter financial conditions.
• In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% for the year, with headline PCE inflation revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2025. The Committee anticipates core PCE inflation to remain stubborn, requiring sustained vigilance and a flexible approach to risk management.
• The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach and openness to further adjustments should employment or inflation deviate meaningfully from current forecasts. Several members dissented, either advocating a larger 50-basis-point cut or preferring no adjustment at this meeting, revealing heightened divergence within the Committee.
• Balance sheet reduction continues at a measured pace. The monthly Treasury redemption cap remains at $5B and the agency MBS cap at $35B, as the Board aims to support orderly market conditions in the face of evolving global and domestic uncertainty.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s unprecedented rally to above $4,100 per ounce reflects a convergence of powerful forces: escalating US-China trade tensions, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts totaling 50 basis points by year-end, a prolonged US government shutdown, record-breaking central bank accumulation, and historic ETF inflows. While technical indicators flash extreme overbought warnings suggesting potential near-term volatility, the structural drivers, including de-dollarization trends, inflation hedging demand, and supply constraints, position gold for continued strength.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

RBA Gov Bullock speaks (7:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar is experiencing significant weakness driven by intensifying US-China trade tensions that directly threaten Australia’s economic outlook, given China’s status as its largest trading partner. The AUD/USD pair has fallen to one-month lows around 0.6440-0.6488, with the critical 200-day moving average near 0.6420 representing the last major technical support level.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at its October meeting on 29–30 September 2025, marking a second consecutive pause after August’s 25 basis point cut. The move affirms the Bank’s data-dependent approach as inflation trends within the target range.
• Inflation indicators remained stable through September, with headline CPI likely anchoring near 2.2%—comfortably within the 2–3% band. Insurance and housing costs remain sticky but are increasingly offset by moderation in discretionary goods.
• Trimmed mean inflation is estimated at around 2.8%, signaling underlying pressures remain contained. The Board continues to flag food and energy price volatility as short-term risks, though the broader disinflation narrative holds.
• Global conditions remain a source of uncertainty. U.S. policy expectations and uneven growth in China continue to weigh on commodities, even as trade disruptions have eased marginally since mid-year.
• Domestic growth shows resilience in the housing and services sectors, though manufacturing remains subdued. Household incomes have stabilized, but consumption remains only modest, capped by high borrowing costs.
• The labor market maintains relative tightness, though job growth has slowed notably since the first half of the year. Underutilization has ticked higher, but overall employment conditions remain supportive.
• Wage growth is plateauing, reflecting softer labor demand. Weak productivity continues to keep unit labor costs elevated, underscoring a medium-term concern highlighted repeatedly by the RBA.
• Household consumption prospects remain fragile. The combination of high rents and weak discretionary appetite suggests risks of a consumer-led slowdown in Q4 if confidence fails to rebound.
• The Board reiterated that subdued household spending poses risks to business sentiment and may dampen investment and job creation in the coming quarters.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive. The RBA balanced confidence in inflation progress with caution around global and domestic demand risks, keeping further adjustments conditional on incoming data.
• The Bank reaffirmed its dual commitment to price stability and full employment, noting its readiness to act should conditions shift markedly.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar faces a perfect storm of negative factors. The RBNZ’s aggressive easing cycle, with further cuts anticipated, renewed US-China trade tensions threatening New Zealand’s export-dependent economy, weak domestic economic data showing contraction across multiple quarters, and declining dairy prices undermining a key export sector. With the currency trading near six-month lows around 0.5700 against the USD, market participants remain cautious ahead of potential further weakness, particularly if the RBNZ follows through with another rate cut in November and trade tensions continue to escalate.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.00% on 20 August 2025, marking a three-year low and continuing the easing cycle after July’s pause. The vote was split 4-2, with two members advocating a 50-basis-point cut, highlighting diverging views within the Committee.
• Policymakers indicated that significant uncertainty and a stalling economic recovery prompted this move, leaving the door open for further rate cuts later in the year, with a possible trough around 2.5% by December.
• Annual consumer price index inflation rose to 2.7% in the June quarter and is expected to reach 3% for the September quarter—at the upper end of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band—but medium-term expectations remain anchored near the 2% midpoint.
• Despite the near-term uptick, headline inflation is projected to return toward 2% by mid-2026, as tradables inflation pressures ease and significant spare capacity continues to dampen domestic price momentum.
• Domestic financial conditions are broadly aligning with MPC expectations, as lower wholesale rates have translated into reduced borrowing costs for households. However, declining consumption and investment demand, higher unemployment, and subdued wage growth reflect ongoing economic slack.
• GDP growth stalled in the second quarter of 2025, contrasting with earlier projections. High-frequency indicators point to continued weakness driven by rising prices for essentials, weakening household savings, and constrained business lending.
• The MPC cautioned that ongoing global tariff uncertainties and policy shifts, especially recent changes in US trade regulations, could amplify market volatility and present both upside and downside risks to New Zealand’s recovery.
• Subject to medium-term inflation pressures continuing to ease as projected, the MPC signaled scope for further OCR cuts, possibly down to 2.5% by year-end, consistent with the latest Monetary Policy Statement outlook.
• The next meeting is on 22 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen remains under significant pressure heading into October 15, 2025, caught between multiple conflicting forces. The collapse of the ruling coalition has paradoxically provided some support to the currency by undermining expectations for aggressive fiscal stimulus, while simultaneously creating political uncertainty that typically weighs on a country’s currency.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 17 September, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
• The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
• The BOJ will continue its gradual reduction of monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). The scheduled amount of long-term government bond purchases remains unchanged from the prior decision, with a quarterly reduction pace of about ¥400 billion through March 2026 and about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026 onward, aiming for a purchase level near ¥2 trillion in January to March 2027.
• Japan’s economy continues to show a moderate recovery, with household consumption supported by rising incomes, although corporate activity has softened somewhat. Overseas economies remain on a moderate growth path, with the impact of global trade policies still weighing on Japan’s export and industrial production outlook.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices (excluding fresh food) remains in the mid-3% range. Inflationary pressures remain broad-based, with persistent cost-push factors in food and energy, alongside solid wage pass-through. However, input cost pressures from past import surges are showing early signs of easing.
• Short-term inflation momentum may moderate as cost-push effects diminish, though rent increases and service-related price gains tied to labor shortages are likely to provide support. Inflation expectations among firms and households continue a gradual upward drift.
• Looking ahead, the economy is projected to grow at a slower-than-trend pace in the near term due to external demand softness and cautious corporate investment plans. However, accommodative financial conditions and steady increases in real labor income are expected to underpin domestic demand.
• In the medium term, as overseas economies recover and global trade stabilizes, Japan’s growth potential is likely to improve. With persistent labor market tightness and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations, core inflation is projected to remain on a gradual upward trend, converging toward the 2% price stability target in the latter half of the projection horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 30 to 31 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA crude oil inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets face substantial headwinds entering the fourth quarter of 2025, with prices at five-month lows amid converging bearish factors: escalating U.S.-China trade tensions threatening demand, OPEC+ production increases adding supply, and major forecasters predicting record surpluses in 2026. While China’s strategic stockpiling and potential U.S. shale slowdowns at current prices may provide some support, the near-term outlook remains decidedly bearish.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 15 October 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.