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China is likely to set a pragmatic and flexible GDP growth target for 2026, with policymakers seeking to balance stabilisation objectives against mounting external and domestic pressures, according to commentary and analyst assessments following the Central Economic Work Conference.

This follows lacklustre data yesterday, but a still solid yuan:

• China yuan hits 14-month high even as weak consumer demand clouds economic growth outlook
• China signals more policy support (same old?) as economy ‘stabilises’ in November

Commentary published by China Securities Times suggests policymakers are divided over whether to anchor next year’s growth target at around 5%, or adopt a slightly wider 4.5%–5.0% range that would allow greater policy leeway. Analysts argue that flexibility will be critical given a more challenging global backdrop, slowing external demand and persistent domestic supply-demand imbalances.

The Central Economic Work Conference underscored this cautious tone, reaffirming the guiding principle of “seeking progress while maintaining stability.” Policymakers emphasised the need to stabilise employment, businesses, markets and expectations, while delivering “reasonable quantitative growth” alongside qualitative improvements as China embarks on the 15th Five-Year Plan. Importantly, the meeting reiterated continuity in macro policy, maintaining a more proactive fiscal stance and a moderately loose monetary policy, alongside stronger counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments.

Most analysts expect the 2026 growth target to remain close to 5%, with policy support front-loaded to ensure a solid start to the year. Measures are likely to focus on expanding domestic demand, unlocking consumption potential, lifting effective investment and offsetting the drag from weaker exports, while continuing efforts to stabilise the property sector.

Economists anticipate further monetary easing, with interest rate cuts of 10–20 basis points and reserve requirement ratio reductions of 50–100 basis points pencilled in for 2026. Some analysts expect the People’s Bank of China could move as early as January, ahead of the Lunar New Year, to shore up confidence and liquidity.

On the fiscal side, projections point to a deficit ratio of around 4%, unchanged from 2025, alongside an expanded issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and steady or slightly higher quotas for local government special bonds. Authorities are also expected to deploy targeted tools, including relending facilities and subsidies, to support consumption, infrastructure, technological innovation and small businesses.

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A pragmatic and flexible 2026 growth target reduces near-term downside risks for the yuan by signalling policy responsiveness rather than hard growth constraints. While further rate and RRR cuts may cap CNY upside, front-loaded stimulus and a clearer demand-support narrative should help limit depreciation pressure, keeping USD/CNY anchored within managed ranges rather than prompting a disorderly weakening.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand’s government has signalled a prolonged period of fiscal strain, with updated forecasts showing no return to a budget surplus over the next five years, as Finance Minister Nicola Willis doubled down on spending restraint while acknowledging the economy’s fragile recovery.

Speaking alongside the release of the half-year economic and fiscal update, Willis struck a cautiously optimistic tone on growth while reinforcing the government’s commitment to tight fiscal discipline. She argued that recent data point to an economy beginning to stabilise after a prolonged downturn, even as the broader outlook remains clouded by weak domestic demand and external uncertainty.

The updated forecasts follow earlier guidance on government funding plans (see earlier bond issuance update), reinforcing the picture of near-term restraint alongside elevated medium-term borrowing needs.

The government now expects the economy to grow modestly in the third quarter, following contractions in three of the past five quarters. Treasury forecasts suggest momentum should gradually improve over the next 18 months, though the near-term recovery remains uneven and vulnerable to global risks, including shifting U.S. trade policy and softer international growth.

Despite signs of stabilisation, the fiscal outlook has deteriorated. The government now expects a wider deficit in the current financial year than projected at the May Budget, and does not anticipate returning to surplus within the five-year forecast horizon once the costs of the national accident insurance scheme are included. While the deficit narrows significantly toward the end of the forecast period, the outlook underscores the challenge of restoring balance while supporting growth.

Willis emphasised that restraint will remain central to fiscal strategy. Any new spending at the May Budget will be tightly targeted, with health, education, defence and law and order identified as priority areas. The government’s approach reflects a view that credibility and discipline are essential to rebuilding confidence, even as critics argue that spending cuts risk weighing further on activity.

The updated forecasts also show a slightly weaker growth profile than previously assumed and a marginally higher inflation outlook over the next year, complicating the policy mix. Net government debt is now expected to peak at just under 47% of GDP later in the decade, modestly higher than earlier projections, reinforcing the case for ongoing fiscal restraint.

Overall, the update highlights a government attempting to balance an emerging economic recovery with a determination to keep a firm grip on the public finances, even as the path back to surplus remains distant.

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A weaker fiscal outlook combined with continued spending restraint reinforces a cautious growth backdrop, supporting expectations of limited upward pressure on yields and keeping focus on RBNZ policy settings.

The fiscal update is broadly neutral to mildly negative for the New Zealand dollar (see attached screenshot). While improved near-term GDP expectations offer some support, the absence of a surplus over the forecast horizon and a higher projected debt peak reinforce perceptions of constrained policy flexibility. With fiscal settings tight and growth still fragile, NZD is likely to remain driven by global rate differentials and risk sentiment rather than domestic fiscal signals, leaving the currency sensitive to shifts in U.S. yields and broader risk appetite.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s private sector ended 2025 on a firmer footing, with business activity continuing to expand despite softer momentum and persistent weakness in manufacturing, according to the latest flash PMI data from S&P Global.

The headline Flash Japan Composite PMI Output Index eased to 51.5 in December from 52.0 in November, remaining above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction for a ninth consecutive month. While the pace of growth slowed from a three-month high, the reading still pointed to a modest expansion in overall activity at a rate stronger than the post-pandemic average.

At the sector level, services remained the primary driver of growth.

• The Services PMI Business Activity Index slipped to 52.5 from 53.2, signalling continued but slower expansion.
• Manufacturing conditions remained under pressure, though signs of stabilisation emerged. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 from 48.7, indicating contraction persisted but eased to its mildest pace in around 18 months.

New business returned to growth at the composite level following two months of decline, marking the strongest increase since August. Services demand improved modestly, while the downturn in manufacturing sales softened significantly, suggesting goods demand may be approaching a turning point. In contrast, new export orders declined again, reflecting continued weakness in overseas demand for manufactured goods, partially offset by marginal improvements in services exports.

Improving domestic demand conditions supported a stronger increase in employment. Overall staffing levels rose at the fastest pace since May 2024, with job creation accelerating across both manufacturing and services. Despite higher headcounts, outstanding business increased at the fastest rate in two-and-a-half years, driven largely by rising backlogs in the services sector, highlighting capacity constraints.

Business confidence remained positive but softened into year-end. Firms continued to expect output growth in 2026, though optimism fell from November, particularly among manufacturers. Survey respondents cited global economic uncertainty, demographic challenges and rising costs as key risks to the outlook.

Cost pressures intensified further, with input price inflation reaching its highest level in eight months across both sectors. Companies responded by lifting selling prices at solid rates, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures in Japan’s private sector.

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The PMI data reinforce the Bank of Japan’s cautious but increasingly hawkish policy bias. Services-led growth, accelerating employment and intensifying cost pressures support the case that underlying inflation dynamics remain firm enough to justify gradual policy normalisation. However, the continued contraction in manufacturing, weak export demand and softer business confidence argue against an aggressive tightening path. For the BOJ, the survey aligns with a strategy of incremental adjustment rather than abrupt moves, reinforcing expectations that any further policy steps will be carefully calibrated and data-dependent.

The BoJ meet on Thursday and Friday this week (18 and 19 December), a 25bp interest rate rise is widely expected.

For the yen, the PMI report offers a mixed signal. Rising domestic price pressures and stronger job growth are marginally supportive for JPY via the policy channel, but ongoing manufacturing weakness and subdued external demand limit upside. As a result, yen performance is likely to remain dominated by global rate differentials, particularly U.S. yields, rather than domestic activity data alone. Absent a clear shift in BOJ communication, PMI trends are unlikely to trigger a sustained JPY move, leaving the currency sensitive to swings in global risk sentiment and U.S. monetary policy expectations.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s property investment plummeted to a 15.9% year-on-year decline in the first 11 months, a widening drop from the previous period.

Property sales and new construction starts also continued to decrease, alongside a significant fall in funds raised by developers.

• New Construction Starts showed at –20.5% Y/Y
• Fixed-Asset Investment: –2.6% Y/Y
• Property Investment: –15.9% Y/Y
• Funds Raised by Real Estate Developers: –11.9% Y/Y

Urban area unemployment rate 5.10%

• same as October, 5.10%

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Earlier:

• China debt crackdown pushes LGFVs into costly shadow loans, reviving hidden-risk worries
• USTR Greer calls for smaller, balanced China trade and tighter USMCA enforcement

• China November new house prices -0.4% m/m and -2.4% y/y

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand’s Debt Management Office (NZDMO) has trimmed its near-term bond issuance plans, offering modest relief to the government bond market even as borrowing needs remain elevated over the medium term.

In an update released Tuesday, the NZDMO said it will issue NZ$35 billion of government bonds in the 2025/26 fiscal year, down NZ$3 billion from the NZ$38 billion projected in the May Budget. The reduction reflects improved cash flows and a reassessment of near-term funding requirements, easing immediate supply pressures in the domestic bond market.

The adjustment is likely to be viewed positively by investors, particularly following a period of heavy issuance that has weighed on demand and contributed to elevated yields across the curve. A smaller funding task in the coming fiscal year reduces rollover risk and may help stabilise longer-dated government bond yields, especially if demand from offshore investors remains supportive.

However, the NZDMO also lifted its four-year gross bond issuance forecast through June 2029 to NZ$135 billion, up from NZ$132 billion previously outlined. The upward revision underscores that while near-term borrowing needs have eased, the government’s longer-term funding requirements remain substantial, reflecting ongoing fiscal pressures, infrastructure spending and higher debt-servicing costs.

From a policy perspective, the updated issuance profile arrives at a sensitive juncture for financial markets, with investors closely assessing the interaction between fiscal settings and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy outlook. Reduced bond supply in 2025/26 could marginally ease financial conditions, complementing any future easing bias from the RBNZ should inflation continue to moderate.

Nevertheless, the higher medium-term issuance outlook suggests supply will remain a structural feature of the New Zealand government bond market. Investors are likely to remain selective, focusing on yield compensation and curve dynamics as fiscal consolidation progresses only gradually.

Overall, the NZDMO’s update signals short-term relief for bond supply, but reinforces the reality of sustained borrowing needs in the years ahead.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian consumer confidence fell sharply in December, reversing the tentative improvement seen the previous month, as renewed concerns over inflation and interest rates weighed on household sentiment, according to the latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey.

The headline Consumer Sentiment Index fell 9.0% to 94.5, unwinding much of November’s 12.8% surge and pushing the index back below the neutral 100 level, signalling that pessimists once again outnumber optimists. While confidence has improved materially from the deep troughs of 2024, the latest reading underscores the fragility of sentiment and the difficulty in sustaining a move into outright optimism.

The December pullback was broad-based. Views on the economic outlook and family finances deteriorated, while expectations around mortgage rates turned sharply more negative, highlighting the sensitivity of households to inflation and monetary policy developments. Homebuyer sentiment also weakened, with expectations for house price gains pared back, suggesting higher borrowing costs continue to constrain housing-related confidence.

The survey’s quarterly news recall questions shed further light on the drivers behind the decline. Inflation remained the most frequently recalled topic, with the tone decisively negative. Around 78% of respondents viewed inflation-related news as unfavourable, following upside surprises in Q3 inflation data and a strong initial read from the full monthly CPI in October.

Interest rate news also weighed more heavily on sentiment. 64% of respondents assessed coverage as unfavourable, a marked increase from September and June, reflecting growing concern that rates may remain higher for longer. News related to domestic economic conditions and employment was similarly viewed more negatively than three months earlier.

In contrast, international developments played a smaller role. Recall of global news fell to its lowest level this year, while the tone improved to its least unfavourable since June, partly reflecting easing trade tensions among Australia’s major trading partners.

Despite the overall deterioration, consumers remained broadly unfazed about labour market prospects, suggesting that employment stability continues to provide a partial buffer against cost-of-living pressures. Overall, the survey points to an Australian consumer that is no longer deeply pessimistic, but still cautious and highly sensitive to inflation and interest rate risks heading into 2026.

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The sharp pullback in consumer sentiment is mildly negative for the Australian dollar at the margin, reinforcing expectations that domestic demand will remain constrained into 2026. For rates, the survey supports a cautious RBA stance, with weaker household confidence playing off against offsetting inflation risks, limiting the urgency for further tightening. As a result, AUD is likely to remain more sensitive to global drivers, particularly U.S. rates, risk sentiment and China-related news, than to domestic data in the near term, while front-end rate pricing should stay anchored around a prolonged hold scenario.

The Reserve Bank of Australia does not meet again until 2-3 February next year, with expectations for rate hikes next year firming up somewhat:

• Citi forecasts 2 RBA rate hikes in 2026, February followed by May, as inflation risks rise

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s private sector continued to expand in December, although momentum eased, according to the latest flash PMI data from S&P Global, pointing to a softer but still resilient end to 2025 for the economy.

The headline S&P Global Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index eased to 51.1 in December from 52.6 in November, marking the lowest reading in seven months but remaining above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The result extended the current expansionary run to fifteen consecutive months, underscoring ongoing growth across both services and manufacturing.

The moderation in activity reflected slower growth in both sectors.

• The Services PMI Business Activity Index fell to 51.0 from 52.8, as heightened competition and a more modest increase in new export business weighed on momentum.
• In contrast, manufacturing showed relative resilience, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 52.2 from 51.6, supported by firmer goods demand and improved export orders.

New business inflows continued to underpin activity, albeit at a slower pace than in November. Services new orders softened, while growth in goods export orders helped offset weaker services export momentum, leaving overall new export business growth unchanged from the prior month.

Labour market conditions remained supportive. Firms continued to add staff to manage workloads, with some hiring in anticipation of stronger activity ahead. Confidence around the outlook improved notably, with the Future Output Index reaching its highest level since June. Businesses cited expansion plans, new product launches and expectations of better economic conditions as drivers of growth into 2026.

Higher employment and efficiency gains helped reduce outstanding workloads for an eighth consecutive month, driven largely by falling services backlogs, although manufacturing backlogs rose for the first time in eight months.

Inflationary pressures, however, re-intensified late in the year. Input cost inflation accelerated across both sectors, with goods input prices rising at the fastest pace in eight months amid stronger demand and lengthening supplier delivery times. Firms responded by passing on higher costs, lifting output price inflation to a three-month high and back to its long-run average, with manufacturers reporting a renewed acceleration in selling prices.

Overall, the December PMI data point to an economy still expanding but facing a delicate balance between cooling growth momentum and persistent cost pressures heading into 2026.

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From a monetary policy perspective, the December PMI data present a mixed picture for the Reserve Bank of Australia. While headline activity remains in expansion, the clear moderation in growth momentum, with the composite index at a seven-month low, supports the Bank’s assessment that restrictive policy is gradually slowing demand. However, the re-acceleration in input costs and output prices will be less welcome. Services inflation remains sticky and manufacturers’ pricing power has rebounded, highlighting the risk that disinflation may be uneven. For the RBA, the data reinforce a “higher for longer” stance: growth is cooling but not contracting, while price pressures remain too firm to justify near-term easing. Sustained softening in demand-side indicators would likely be required before the Bank gains confidence that inflation is returning to target on a durable basis.

Indeed, market expectations for a rate hike are rising:

• Citi forecasts 2 RBA rate hikes in 2026, February followed by May, as inflation risks rise

Having said all this, the December PMI data offer limited directional impulse for the Australian dollar. While the easing in activity growth points to softer domestic momentum, the re-acceleration in input and output price pressures reinforces expectations that the RBA will keep policy restrictive for longer. This combination reduces downside risks for AUD in the near term, particularly against low-yielding peers, but is unlikely to trigger a sustained rally without clearer evidence of renewed growth momentum or easing inflation abroad. Near-term AUD moves are therefore likely to remain driven by global risk sentiment, China-linked developments and shifts in US rate expectations rather than domestic PMI signals alone.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand November Food Price Index -0.4% m/m

• prior -0.3%
• for the y/y, a rise of 4.4%

Food prices make up nearly 19 percent of the consumer price index in NZ.

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The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New Zealand.

• calculated and published monthly by Statistics New Zealand
• the FPI tracks the prices of a basket of food items that represent the typical spending patterns of New Zealand households
• the FPI is an important indicator of inflation in New Zealand, as food prices account for a significant portion of household expenditure

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Yesterday we had comments of relevance to inflation:

• RBNZ Governor Breman: If economy evolves as expected, current 2.5% rate likely remains

The monthly fall in New Zealand’s Food Price Index will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand as it offers tentative evidence that one of the stickier components of inflation may be starting to ease. Food prices account for nearly a fifth of the CPI basket, meaning even modest declines can have a meaningful impact on headline inflation outcomes.

For the RBNZ, food inflation has been a persistent challenge over the past two years, driven by global supply shocks, higher input costs, weather disruptions and elevated margins across parts of the food supply chain. While annual food inflation remains elevated at 4.4%, the second consecutive monthly decline suggests price pressures may be losing momentum at the margin.

This easing is particularly important given the Bank’s focus on bringing inflation sustainably back within its 1–3% target range without inflicting unnecessary damage on household demand. Food prices are highly visible and politically sensitive, and sustained moderation would help alleviate cost-of-living pressures for households already strained by high mortgage rates.

From a policy perspective, softer food prices support the case that restrictive monetary settings are working their way through the economy. While the RBNZ is unlikely to pivot quickly on the back of a single data point, continued downside surprises in food inflation would strengthen confidence that broader disinflation is becoming entrenched, allowing policymakers greater flexibility over the medium term.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As always, the screenshot has what’s on the data agenda today.

• This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

None of it is too significant in terms of expected immediate market movement.

The preliminary PMIs due from Australia will be interesting. All three are in expansion and are suggestive of an economy that is ‘expanding’. This is welcomed by the Reserve Bank of Australia. What is not welcomed by the Bank right now is the stickiness of high inflation in Australia. This has seen the Bank abandon its dovishness and flip the switch to more hawkish. Indeed, expectations are rising for RBA rate hikes, for example:

• Citi forecasts 2 RBA rate hikes in 2026, February followed by May, as inflation risks rise

Speaking of PMIs and rate hikes, Japan! We have preliminary PMIs also due from Japan today. These are not expected to be as strong as those from Australia, but other data from Japan has been encouraging, for example:

• Bank of Japan Tankan shows large manufacturing index improved from Q3
• Japan Tertiary Industry Index October +0.9% m/m (beats expected of +0.2% & prior +0.3%)

and have prompted expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike this week. The Bank meet on December 18 and 19, a 25bp interest rate rise is widely expected:

• investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen moves higher on BoJ data & expectations

Apart from that the consumer confidence numbers from Westpac will be of note. For November this result was a blockbuster +12.8% jump that I found difficult to attach much credibility to. Perhaps today’s will follow up strongly, let’s see!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Trump on Ukraine ceasefire: I think we’re closer now than we have ever been
• Canada November CPI 2.2% y/y vs 2.3% expected
• US December NAHB housing market index 39 vs 39 expected
• NY Fed manufacturing index for December -3.9 versus 10.0 estimate.
• Fed’s Williams: Labor market risks have risen as risk to inflation have eased
• More Fed’s Williams: Very supportive of US central bank’s decision to cut interest rates
• Fed’s Collins: Supported rate cut but it was a ‘close call’
• Hassett candidacy received pushback from people close to Trump – report
• Fed’s Miran: Prices are “once again stable” and policy should reflect that

Markets:

• Gold up $2 to $4303
• US 10-year yields down 1.4 bps to 4.18%
• Bitcoin down 3% to $85,800
• S&P 500 down 0.15%
• WTI crude down 75-cents to $56.69
• JPY leads, NZD lags

The second half of December got underway with a disappointing day in stock markets. Futures had pointed to a strong day following Friday’s rout but the sellers were waiting in the weeds and pounced at the open, taking stocks down. From there it was back-and-forth as late-year flows dominated. Broadcom continued to weigh in a nearly 6% decline and Costco fell to the lowest since August 2024. On the flipside, Tesla rose to the best levels of the year.

The US dollar was generally firmer but there wasn’t a solid catalyst. Treasury yields were decently lower early in the day but that steadily unwound. USD/JPY fell as low as 154.68 before rebounding about 40 pips.

Oil came under pressure on the Ukraine ceasefire talks, which seem to have taken on a bit more serious. A series of phone calls took place in Europe, Moscow and Washington that appear to be making progress. Time will tell but any deal that ease sanctions on Russian oil would add to the crude weakness.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The tone around the ceasefire talks in Ukraine genuinely appears to be improving.

We’ve been here before so it’s tough to say whether this is real progress on yet-another headfake. Only time will tell but Trump’s comments today are encouraging:

• Good conversation with European leaders
• Long discussion, and things are seemingly going well
• Had a long talk with Zelensky
• We had numerous conversations with President Putin
• European leaders want to get it ended

Germany’s Merz also sounded unusually upbeat today.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

If you followed the Barron’s playbook last year, you’re probably sitting pretty right now.

The publication has just released their scorecard for their 2025 stock picks, and the results are good. In a market environment that had plenty of chop, their basket of 10 stocks delivered a total return of 27.9%, nearly doubling the S&P 500’s respectable 15.3% return over the same period.

Here is the breakdown of how their 10 picks in 2025 performed and, more importantly, where they are betting for 2026.

Big Tech and China led the way in 2025

The outperformance was driven by massive moves in heavy hitters. The standout winner was Alibaba (BABA), which ripped 81.0% higher, followed closely by Alphabet (GOOGL) at 67.5%.

It wasn’t all tech as financials played a big role, with Citigroup (C) rallying almost 60%.

The winners:

• Alibaba (BABA): +81.0%

• Alphabet (GOOG): +67.5%

• Citigroup (C): +59.8%

• ASML Holding (ASML): +58.5%

• UBER +37.0%

It certainly wasn’t a perfect strike rate. Moderna (MRNA) shed 32.2%, while Everest Group (EG) dipped roughly 11%. But when your winners win this big, you can afford a few duds.

The 2026 Picks: Betting on “Laggards Leading”

For the year ahead, Barron’s is pivoting hard. If 2025 was about growth and recovery, 2026 looks like a deep value, contrarian play. Is that a warning to be defensive?

The theme for the new list is explicitly “Laggards Leading,” with a distinct value bent. A glance at the list shows they are fishing in beaten-down waters—several of these names are sitting on significant negative YTD returns.

The Top 10 Picks for 2026:

1. Amazon (AMZN): The odd one out in a value list? Maybe, but it’s the anchor here.

2. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY): Down 9.5% recently, but paying a hefty 4.9% dividend.

3. Comcast (CMCSA): A true contrarian pick. Down 26.5% YTD with a 4.8% yield and trading at 6.7x 2026 earnings.

4. Exxon Mobil (XOM): Energy remains a staple. It’s curiously rallied lately despite falling oil prices.

5. Fairfax Financial (FRFHF): The Canadian holding company is actually up 27.3% YTD, bucking the “laggard” trend of the list. Still at only 10.2x earnings

6. Flutter Entertainment (FLUT): Betting on the gambler? The stock is down 15.5%.

7. Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS): Flat performance recently, pure asset play.

8. SL Green Realty (SLG): The scariest chart on the list? Down nearly 35% YTD, but yielding a massive 7.0%. This is a direct bet on a commercial real estate turnaround.

9. Visa (V): A defensive growth play trading at roughly 25x earnings. Long a hedge fund favorite.

10. Walt Disney (DIS): The Mouse House is down slightly YTD, trading at a reasonable 16.5x forward earnings.

The Bottom Line

This is a defensive, high-yield pivot compared to the 2025 list. Barron’s is betting that the high-flyers will cool off and capital will rotate into the dogs of the market—specifically real estate (SLG), media (CMCSA, DIS), and pharma (BMY).

With yields on some of these names pushing 5-7%, they are clearly positioning for a market where total return comes from income rather than just multiple expansion.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.