Articles

Oil prices have been struggling in part due to hopes for peace. Indications from Trump and Russia were that sanctions relief would come with any deal and that would allow Russian crude to flow more freely.

As for the chances of a deal, they’re low but peace after a long war always seems impossible until it does. These things often tend to move quickly and Trump certainly has ways to lean on Ukraine to give up a large part of its territory forever. On the ground, Russia is inching ahead but Ukraine has little capability to mount any kind of counter-attack. They’re having some success on raising the economic toll on Russia but that’s a tough way to win a war against a country that’s seen surprisingly strong economic growth since the outset of the conflict.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Important for currencies to move in stable manner, reflective fundamentals
• Will take appropriate action of excessive, disorderly moves

At what point does some serious worry hit the Japanese debt market? It’s no fun losing money on 10-year notes day after day.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +0.2%
• m/m CPI -0.1% vs +0.2% exp
• PPI -2.2% vs -2.0% y/y

This is a step in the right direction but the PPI still shows falling prices and the m/m CPI.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump may be looking to stack the Fed.

If Trump goes down this path it would be bearish for the US dollar and wildly bullish for precious metals and hard assets. The long end would hate it and there would be a big steepener.

Biden appointed:

• Jefferson
• Barr
• Cook
• Kugler

Kugler has already resigned and been replaced by Miran.

If Trump were to replace the other three and the chair, he would have enough votes to do whatever he wanted, presuming that Waller, Bowman and Miran continued to back his agenda. It would be the end of Fed independence.

I don’t think the market will take this too seriously but this is floating a major shakeup to monetary policy and it would be an atomic bomb.

Talk like this might lead Powell to stay on as a Governor when his term expires.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +2.7%
• m/m reading +0.3% vs +0.3% exp
• Prior m/m reading was +0.4%

The pricing on next week’s BOJ decision is 77% for a cut, that’s risen since last week when it was 66%. This number won’t sway any opinions but it highlights inflation pressures well above the historic low prices in Japan.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior manufacturing +17
• Non-manufacturing vs +27 prior

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We’ve got a bit of data to chew on to kick off the Tuesday session, with the focus squarely on Japan early on and China a bit later.

It’s going to be an interesting start to the day.

First up at the top of the hour, we get the Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Index. It’s a monthly sentiment check that often leads the official BoJ Tankan. The prior read was 17 for manufacturing and 27 for non-manufacturing.

Shortly after at 2350 GMT, keep an eye on the Japanese Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) for November.

• Monthly expected: 0.3% (Prior 0.4%)

• Yearly expected: 2.7% (Prior 2.7%)

Reminder: The BOJ decision is next week and a hike is mostly expected.

The Main Event: China CPI

The real mover comes later in the evening (0130 GMT) when China drops its inflation numbers.

The market is looking for a rise in CPI year-over-year to 0.7% (from 0.2% prior). If we see a miss here, the “China deflation” narrative is going to roar back into the headlines, and we could hear more talk about stimulus (that talk has restarted lately).

PPI is expected to remain deep in negative territory at -2.0% y/y.

Complete schedule:

2200 GMT

• JP: Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Index (Dec) – Prior: 17

• JP: Reuters Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index (Dec) – Prior: 27

2250 GMT

• JP: Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (Nov) – Exp: 0.3% / Prior: 0.4%

• JP: Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (Nov) – Exp: 2.7% / Prior: 2.7%

0130 GMT

• CN: PPI (YoY) (Nov) – Exp: -2.0% / Prior: -2.1%

• CN: CPI (YoY) (Nov) – Exp: 0.7% / Prior: 0.2%

• CN: CPI (MoM) (Nov) – Exp: 0.2% / Prior: 0.2%

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Crude -4800K
• Prior was +2480K
• Gasoline +7000K
• Distillates +1000K

Expectations for tomorrow’s EIA report

• Crude -2310K
• Gasoline +4518K
• Distillates +1943K

WTI is struggling this week and finished lower by 49-cents on Tuesday. The crude number here is nice but that’s a fat build in gasoline and comes after a 4.5mb build in last week’s EIA data.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Ext migration and visitors +9.4% vs +9.6% prior
• Estimated migrant arrivals 2400 vs 1800 prior

Not exactly blowing the doors off but the population is steadily rising and tourists continue to love New Zealand, aside from the long travel times.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• US indices close mixed. Russell 2000 rates to new intraday record level
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Highlights Trump’s commitment to lasting peace in Ukraine
• Crude oil futures settle at $58.25
• RBNZ signals updated – driven approach as policy Path remains uncertain
• U.S. Treasury sells $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.175%
• Major European indices close the session with mixed results.Silver trades at all-time high
• U.S. Economic Data Finally Resumes After Shutdown: Key CPI and Jobs Reports Rescheduled
• Silver technicals: Price moves to a new all-time high. What is the next target?
• JOLTS October job openings 7.600M vs 7.150M estimate
• WH Economic Advisor Hassett: There is more room than a 25 basis point cut
• Weekly ADP 4-week average employment change +4.75K versus -13.5K in last weekly release
• The USD is little changed. One more day to the Fed rate decision
• Gold technical analysis video: Bulls are back after the stop hunt below $4200
• investingLive European FX news wrap: JPY keeps weakening, Trump considering tariff changes

The JOLTS job openings was released for the month of October (so during the shutdown).

• Job openings rose modestly — the number moved up to 7.67 million, slightly higher than September’s 7.66 million.

• Hiring activity stagnated — total hires remained around 5.15 million, with a hires rate of about 3.2%.

• Worker confidence fell — the quits rate dropped to 1.8%, one of the lowest readings in several years. Meanwhile, layoffs rose modestly, indicating heightened risk or caution among employers.

The uptick in job openings suggests that demand for labor hasn’t collapsed — there remain companies willing to post positions. At first glance, that’s healthy. But the flat hiring numbers and a steep drop in quits tell a different story: many of those jobs are going unfilled (or being posted but not filled), and workers are less willing to move jobs.

In short, this isn’t a booming hiring environment; it’s more of a “no-hire, no-fire” stalemate: employers may be listing jobs, but they’re not aggressively hiring — and workers aren’t jumping to new roles. That signals an increasingly cautious labor market, even if demand remains weakly positive.

The monthly jobs report for November will not be released until December 15. The BLS reported that the December report will be released on January 9th which is closer to catching up.

Of interest this week in addition to the FOMC rate decision tomorrow is the initial jobs claims data. Recall that was week, the fell below the 200,000 level to the since 2022.

Was it the Thanksgiving Day holiday seasons. It could also be the “no fire” side of the equation.

The odd’s on favorite for Fed Chair, Kevin Hassett spoke today and said:

• There is “plenty of room” for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further, and he believes cuts could go beyond just a standard 25-basis-point move.
• He emphasized that any decision should be “data-driven” — that is, based on economic indicators (inflation, growth, employment), not predetermined or politically driven.
• Asked hypothetically if he would accept pressure from political leaders to cut rates, Hassett insisted he would rely on his own judgment and follow the data, even if that meant disagreeing with such requests, and added that Trump trusts him (TBD on that comment).

Silver surged to a new all-time record high today, breaking above the $60 per ounce mark for the first time in history and reaching intraday levels near $60.56. The rally reflects a powerful combination of tightening global supply, surging industrial demand, and rising investor interest.

Silver has now more than doubled in value this year, far outpacing gold and marking one of the strongest precious-metal performances in decades. Structural supply shortages—paired with robust consumption from solar, EV, and electronics industries—have added upward pressure. The next key target comes at a Fibonacci extension target (200%) at $63.12. The price today reached $60.80.

The price of gold moved up $22.30 or 0.43% to $4212.90.

In the US stock market today, the Dow and S&P moved lower, NASDAQ was marginally higher, and Russell 2000 traded to a new record intraday level, but closed below the highest close

• Dow industrial average is 179.03 points or -0.3% to47560.29.
• S&P index fell -6 .00 point or -0.09% to 6840.41
• NASDAQ index rose 30.58 points or 0.13% to 23576.49.
• Russell 2000 rose by .26 points or 0.21% to 2526.24. The all-time record high close comes in 2531.15

The FOMC rate decision will be announced at 2 PM tomorrow with expectations for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%. Also released will be the summary of economic projections which gives the guesstimates from Fed officials for the Fed funds rate at the end of 2026 along with GDP, employment rate, PCE inflation and core PCE inflation.

In September:

• Fed funds rate at the end the of 2026 was estimate that 3.4%
• GDP was estimated at 1.8%
• Unemployment rate was estimated at 4.4%
• PCE was expected 2.6%
• Core PCE was expected at 2.6%.

The Fed Chair will give his summary of the meeting and answer questions during the normal press conference starting at 2:30 PM ET>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Appreciated the opportunity to speak this morning with Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko
• Discussion highlighted Trumps commitment to lasting peace in Ukraine.
• Discussed treasuries sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft.

Earlier today, Zelenskyy spoke and said:

• Wants to discuss restoration of Ukraine as part of peace plan preparation with US.
• Is ready to hold elections US and European unity security during the process.
• If securities is guaranteed, would be held next 60 days and 90 days. Will is parliament to prepare legislative framework to make elections possible during martial law

Meanwhile Pres. Trump said he would give Zelenskyy “days” to respond to peace proposal.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury sold $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.175%

• WI level at the time of the auction 4.175%
• Tail 0.0 basis points versus 6 month average of 0.0 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.55X vs 6 month average of2.51X
• DIrects 20.96% vs 6 month average of 20.5%
• Indirects 70.24% vs 6 month average of 69.5%
• Dealers 8.81% versus 6 month average of 10.0%

AUCTION GRADE: C+/B-

The 10 year note auction came in with a 0.0 basis point tail which is precisely the six-month average. The bid to cover was just marginally higher than the six-month average. The domestic the bidders were just above the six-month average while the in directs were also just above the six-month average. As a result the dealers were saddled with about 1.2% less than the norm.

That was good enough for a C+/B- grade in my view.

There is little reaction. However, in general, the 10 year yield is comfortably above the 4.0% level at 4.17%. Recall that toward the end of November, the yield reached a low of 3.962%. The current level is near the high levels going back to September 26 and is also near a swing area between 4.17% and 4.199%. Move above that area and we could see a further pop in yields.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.