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It is a huge week ahead for financial markets this week, with a packed macroeconomic calendar lined up for traders. Last week saw a strong return of US data after the lengthy government shutdown, and updates have kept expectations high for a Federal Reserve rate cut this week, with investor sentiment remaining positive.

It will not be all about the Fed, however, with several other major central banks due to update the market on interest rates, and some key data releases also out over the coming sessions. US data continues to play catch-up, and we also hear from a plethora of central bankers, so traders are expecting another lively week ahead.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It’s a quiet start to the calendar week on Monday, with little on the cards to move markets across all three of the trading sessions and little on the geopolitical front over the weekend to spark moves on the Monday open.

Things heat up quickly on Tuesday, with central banks and data coming thick and fast. The focus in the Asian session will be on Australian markets for the latest rate call from the RBA. Later in the day, traders are expecting moves in the Yen when Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks in London. UK markets will tune in for the BOE’s Monetary Policy Report Hearings before New York opens, and focus turns again to the US job market, with JOLTS Job Openings data due out for both September and October.

It is a huge day for financial markets on Wednesday, with central banks heavily in focus. We hear from new RBNZ Governor Anna Breman early in the Asian session before attention moves north for Chinese PPI and CPI data. The London session sees an update from ECB President Christine Lagarde, but the real action looks set to come after New York opens. The initial focus is north of the border for the Bank of Canada’s rate call, before attention moves swiftly to Washington for the much-anticipated rate decision and update from the Federal Reserve Bank.

Things do not let up on Thursday, with another full calendar day scheduled. Australian markets will be in early focus in the Asian session, with employment data due out midway through the day, before European markets open and we hear the latest rate call from the Swiss National Bank, before focus jumps across the Channel for an update from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. It is a quieter day in the New York session, with just the Weekly Unemployment Claims data due out.

Friday is a much quieter day across all sessions, with the only tier 1 data being the UK GDP numbers early in the European session. However, traders are expecting volatility to remain high given all the updates earlier in the week.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 08 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 08 December 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Asian markets in today’s Asia session traded mixed, with Chinese assets and the yuan supported by a surprise rebound in exports, while Japanese stocks underperformed on softer growth revisions and ongoing positioning for a potential Bank of Japan shift; overall risk tone remained cautious ahead of this week’s Fed and RBA meetings, which helped the dollar stabilise after recent weakness. The instruments most directly impacted were Chinese and Hong Kong equity indices, the onshore and offshore yuan, Japanese equities and the yen, Indian equities, and broader Asia FX that is sensitive to Fed and RBA expectations.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Today sets the stage rather than delivers the main act: data are light but include Eurozone Sentix and German industrial production, which can shape EUR and European equity tone into the FOMC. The main driver remains positioning and narrative around an almost fully priced Fed cut, with oil firms, the dollar softer, and option expiries potentially steering intraday FX flows as European and then US traders step in.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Dollar is starting Monday on the back foot, with DXY hovering just below 99 after two weeks of selling as traders price in a near‑certain Fed rate cut and react to softer US labor, manufacturing and inflation data that have eroded the currency’s yield appeal. EUR, GBP, and key commodity currencies such as AUD, NZD and CAD are holding gains against USD, gold is firmer on the weaker‑Dollar/lower‑rates story, and market commentary frames any near‑term Dollar bounces as corrective within a broader environment of gradual USD softening into this week’s FOMC decision.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted by majority to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading near record highs on Monday, 8 December 2025, supported by a softer US dollar and strong expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this week, with price action still in a broadly bullish structure. Spot gold is around 4,210–4,215 USD/oz in early Monday trade, up roughly 0.3% on the session and about 0.3% higher than Friday’s close.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro is modestly firmer to start the week, supported by softer US yields and stable ECB guidance, with EUR/USD trading in the mid‑1.16s and sentiment cautiously bullish into Wednesday’s Fed decision. Technical and macro outlooks suggest upside attempts toward the 1.17–1.18 area are possible in the early part of the week, but overall, the euro remains in a broader consolidation with risks in both directions around central‑bank events.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, supported by stable banking-sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

Today’s CHF tone is “steady‑firm within range”: spot sits near the middle of a well‑defined 0.79 — 0.81 USD/CHF corridor, with no fresh Swiss data shocks and the main catalysts lying ahead in the Fed and SNB meetings.​

The fundamental backdrop of zero inflation but no rush to ease, plus a structurally strong franc, continues to favor CHF resilience on rallies in USD/CHF toward 0.81 and leaves room for renewed downside tests toward 0.79 if the Fed delivers a dovish surprise

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Pound is starting the week on a firmer footing, trading comfortably above 1.33 against the U.S. dollar, with sentiment supported by expectations of easier global and UK policy but tempered by evidence of a still‑soft UK labour market. The GBP/USD rate was around 1.33 late last week, with one major data provider quoting 1.3319 on 5 December and noting that the Pound has gained roughly 1–1.5% over the past month and about 4–5% over the past year.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar is starting the week firm after stronger‑than‑expected jobs data, recent USD softness, and support from oil prices, with markets focused on next week’s Bank of Canada decision and whether CAD strength can extend after a sharp USD/CAD drop. USD/CAD is trading around 1.38, having risen slightly to about 1.3822 on Monday after last week’s sharp decline.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to limit overall resale volumes, resulting in only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil is trading calmly near two‑week highs today, with WTI around 60 USD and Brent just under 64 USD per barrel in Monday’s Asian and early European trade on 8 December 2025. The tape reflects a market balanced between expected Fed easing (supportive for demand) and elevated geopolitical risks to Russian and Venezuelan supply (supportive for prices), against a still-comfortable overall supply backdrop.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Gobal – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 08 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior -7.4
• Full report here

This is better than expected and continues to point to stabilisation.

The agency noted: “While the sentix economic data has improved for the fourth time in a row in some regions, the overall index for the
eurozone continues to hover slightly in negative territory. Although it rose by 1.2 points in December, with the current
situation at -16.5 points and expectations just above zero, the eurozone economy can at best be said to be stabilising.”

“The eurozone is therefore finding it difficult to see the global momentum perceived by sentix survey participants for
almost all other regions and countries also having an effect in Euroland. Towards the end of 2025, the reason for this
lies with Germany, the largest eurozone economy. Recessionary forces continue to have an impact here, which is
spreading to the entire eurozone.”

“Looking ahead, however, there are significant differences of opinion between private and professional investors. The latter
are noticeably more optimistic that a global upturn will ultimately lift all boats. Private investors do not share this optimism
at all. Are the professionals labouring under a misconception because they are focusing too much on the stock indices?
What do private investors perceive that makes them so sceptical? In any case, this polarisation is unique in sentix’s history.
Inflation is also coming back into focus as a topic. Here, investors expect increasing pressure on the bond markets, which
is unlikely to give central banks more leeway to support the economy”.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior -37

This is not a market moving release. This index has been deeply in the negative since 2022, although it rebounded from the trough made in October 2023 at -52.5. The SNB meanwhile is not expected to do anything in terms of monetary policy.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior +1.3%
• Industrial production Y/Y +0.8% vs -1.0% prior

This is not a market-moving release but it’s a nice beat on estimates and another confirmation of a pick up in economic activity. Industrial production has been recovering from the May 2024 trough at -7.7% and it’s now back into positive territory.

ECB’s Schnabel has been mentioning the possibility of a rate hike in 2026. If things keep improving and inflationary pressures intensify, we might indeed see a rate hike in 2026, and potentially from other central banks too.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Concerned about FX moves
• Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals
• Will take appropriate action on FX if necessary

The market got used to these kind of comments by now. I guess the lack of meaningful JPY strength despite an upcoming BoJ rate hike is making them even more concerned.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Japan Q3 GDP revised -2.3% annualized vs -2.0% expected
• What’s the big contrarian trade for 2026? Commodities according to BofA
• China posts another massive trade surplus
• IBM nears deal to buy Confluent at below the IPO price
• Macron threatens tariffs on China “in the coming months” due to trade surpluses
• Japan October current account +2833b vs +3109B expected
• Trump on restarting trade talks with Canada: We’ll work it out
• Japan October labor cash earnings +2.6% vs +2.2% prior

Markets:

• Gold up $13 to $4209
• US 10-year yields flat at 4.13%
• WTI crude oil up 12-cents to $60.20
• S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• JPY leads, CAD lags

The US dollar was generally softer to start the week after Friday’s strength. The yen was stronger despite the softer GDP data as the market begins to zero in on a BOJ hike next week. The moves overall for far are soft.

The headline on Macron and China probably didn’t get as much attention as it deserves, maybe because the market sees it as a hollow threat given the internal politics of the EU. Trump was fairly positive on Canada but there was little movement in CAD, similarly to when he broke off talks.

Gold is sold to begin the week while bitcoin has traded in a wide range already from $89-92K. It’s rebounded towards the top of that range after some selling as Asian markets opened.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold prices are up 60% year to date and Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett is out with a bold call on hard assets, tagging energy as the ultimate contrarian play.

Hartnett, the Chief Investment Strategist at BofA, is looking past the current tech euphoria and digging into the beaten-down sectors. In his latest note, he argues that the macro backdrop is shifting in favor of commodities.

He believes the Trump administration’s economic policy will continue to press the economy to run economy hot. He labels the “despised oil/energy” sector as the best contrarian trade for 2026.

A 60% rally in oil prices in 2026 would take WTI to $96 per barrel.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The trade war isn’t hurting China as it posted another massive trade surplus in November, one of its largest ever.

• Surplus of USD 111.68 billion vs $90.7 billion prior
• USD denominated Nov imports +1.9%
• USD denominated Nov exports +5.9%
• Nov rare earth exports 5494 tonnes vs 4343 tonnes in Oct
• Year through Nov surplus of 7708 billion yuan

These are astonishing numbers given the trade war. China is steamrolling the global competition for exports.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Will not extend electricity rebates
• Decision on Austal is imminent

The electricity comment is inflationary and the RBA should look through it but there are inflationary pressures building in 2026 and a rate hike late in the year is increasingly the base case

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

In an interview on Sunday published by Los Echos, French President Emmanuel Macron hinted at a US-style trade war on China.

He said he spoke with Chinese officials and warned them what’s coming.

“I told them that if they do not react, we Europeans would be forced, in
the coming months, to take strong measures following the example of the
United States, such as imposing tariffs on Chinese products,” he said.

The ‘coming months’ part is particularly notable, though it’s unclear what strings the EU could pull.

“I tried to explain to the Chinese that their trade surplus is
unsustainable because they are killing their own customers, particularly
by no longer importing much from us,” Macron said.

I’ve written about this before but the US might not have been just a gamechanger for US-global relations but with how the rest of the world interacts with each other. We may frequently see larger countries try to squeeze smaller trading partners, or — in this case — trading giants collide.

The EU’s goods trade deficit with China has ballooned by nearly 60% since 2019 and China is coming after the European auto market.

The thing is, Europe immediately rolled over on US tariffs so it’s not exactly projecting a backbone. The fragmentation of the eurozone also makes it extremely difficult to project a united front.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Good on anyone who sniffed out the Warner Brothers sale last year as it’s been better than a 3x trade.

The upside is now limited to $27.75 per shares, which is what Netflix bid as part of the $72 billion equity deal plus debt. It’s a huge bid in a tough industry as Netflix tries to put its stamp on traditional media.

The downside in WBD is now considerable as Trump weighed in on potential anti-trust questions.

“I’ll be involved in that decision,” Trump said Sunday.

“They have a very big market share,” Trump said. “And when they have Warner Brothers, that share goes up a lot.”

Keep in mind that Trump is not friendly with Netflix founder Reid Hastings. For years, Hastings positioned himself as one of Trump’s most prominent corporate critics. He donated $7 million to a pro-Kamala Harris Super PAC and was a leading voice pressuring Joe Biden to step down to make way for a stronger candidate against Trump.

Since the election though, he has gone quiet but Trump surely hasn’t forgotten which side he was on. I don’t see any reason to chase a 6% merger arb here with an indeterminate timeline.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.