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The S&P 500 has hit a record high for the first time since February and the Nasdaq hit a record high for the first time since December.

It’s been a remarkable comeback for the Nasdaq since April and if we can close at new highs, there are blue skies above.

The interesting one to watch next is the Russell 2000, which still needs to rally 13.5% to get back to October levels. It’s was up a hefty 1.7% yesterday.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The euro has perked up to a fresh session high, which is also a fresh high since 2021 at 1.1747.

The pair has risen about 30 pips since the US released PCE data for May. The report showed slightly hotter core inflation than anticipated while spending/income both unexpectedly deteriorated. That’s the kind of data that could be put the Fed in a bind. If the economy is slowing it calls for rate cuts but the Fed can’t lower rates if inflation is also creeping up and remains above target.

For now, Fed officials have signalled cut quarter-point cuts in the remainder of this year via the dot plot, but that was a narrow majority with many seeing just one cut. In contrast, the market has priced in 65 bps in easing, perhaps sensing that the slower economy will ultimately win out.

Notably, this isn’t the first sign of consumer softening this year. Target last month highlighted a weakening consumer and yesterday, Circle-K owner Couche-Tard highlighted a struggling US consumer in the ‘lower end’ and ‘lower middle end’.

“Softness in traffic and fuel demand in the United States as low-income consumers were impacted by challenging economic conditions,” said CFO Filipe Da Silva.

To be fair, many other companies have said the consumer is fine but this week’s US Q1 GDP report also showed a weaker consumer.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P 500 needs to rise 7 points to touch a new record high and break February’s peak of 6147. It looked like a sure thing a few hours ago but futures have faded somewhat and are pointing to an 11 point gain at the open.

Shares of Nike will lead the way with a 10% premarket gain as tariffs hit margins less than feared.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Core:

• Prior was +2.5%
• Core m/m 0.2% vs +0.15% exp
• Unrounded core PCE +0.1788%
• Supercore (services ex-shelter)
• Services inflation

Headline PCE:

• Headline PCE +2.3% y/y vs +2.3% expected
• Deflator +0.1% m/m vs +0.12% expected
• Unrounded m/m +0.1358%

Consumer spending and income for March :

• Personal income -0.4% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month +0.8%
• Personal spending -0.1% vs +0.1% expected. Prior month +0.2%
• Real personal spending -0.3% vs +0.1% prior
• Savings rate

USD/JPY was trading at 144.58 ahead of the data.

This isn’t a great report on a couple fronts. The headline was in-line (though a touch high unrounded) but core was hotter than expected. The income side was weak and so was spending, which fits in with some of the corporate commentary we’ve heard (like Target).

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month +0.1% (revised to +0.2%)
• Advanced estimate for the month of May -0.1%

The goods-producing industries were down 0.6% in April, with the manufacturing sector accounting for nearly all the decline. The
services-producing industries edged up 0.1% in April.

Public
administration, finance and insurance, and the arts, entertainment and
recreation sectors contributed the most to the increase, while the
wholesale trade sector was the largest detractor to growth.
Overall, 10 of 20 industrial sectors expanded in April.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The latest print on US inflation is due at the bottom of the hour. So far, the inflation hit from tariffs has been modest and the market is sanguine but that could change in short order. Given that we’ve seen May CPI already, I don’t think there are any big surprises coming today though. The consensus is 2.3% y/y on the headline and 2.6% y/y on core.

The other notable part of the release is on personal consumption and it could end up being the market mover. The consensus is +0.1% m/m but yesterday’s GDP report (albeit for Q1) showed surprising weakness in consumption that hasn’t (yet?) showed up in many official data points.

Along with the US report, we also get the Canadian GDP reading for April.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• After 10 or 12 deals, there are 20 more important ones.

The Labor Day in the US is on September 1st and he’s obviously alluding here that there’s no deadline in July. So basically there’s no deadline at all.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Official data so far reveals only modest impact of tariffs on prices, activity, labor market.
• If the Fed cuts in September and tariff effect shows up later, could pause rate cuts.
• Inflation boost is likely coming, but actual inflation indicates renewed progress towards 2% target.
• More time is needed to determine if effects of trade war are delayed, or if it will be smaller than thought.
• Emphasis must be on actual inflation, real economic data without committing to an easing policy path in case tariff effects delayed.

There’s nothing new here from Kashkari. He’s been on this camp for a while.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 30/6/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• This is a de-escalation.
• Agreement with China will allow magnets to flow to everyone who received them before on a regular basis.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Major currencies not up to much to start the session
• China says London talks served to further confirm details on framework
• China reportedly seeks to tie French cognac deal with EV tariff talks
• ECB’s Knot: The ECB may well need to keep rates on hold for some time
• ECB’s de Guindos says on track to meet 2% inflation target
• PBoC: Will enhance monetary policy adjustment strength
• US Core PCE is expected at 2.6% Y/Y but it won’t change anything for the Fed
• Eurozone June final consumer confidence -15.3 vs -15.3 prelim
• France June preliminary CPI +0.9% vs +0.7% y/y expected
• Spain June preliminary CPI +2.2% vs +2.0% y/y expected
• Italy June consumer confidence 96.1 vs 97.0 expected

Markets:

• EUR leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
• US 10-year yields up 2.2 bps to 4.275%
• Gold down 1.3% to $3,283.68
• WTI crude up 0.4% to $65.48
• Bitcoin down 0.8% to $106,998

It was another quiet session with little in terms of any major movements in the FX space. The dollar is keeping steadier on the day, with light changes all around but in the bigger picture remains in a more vulnerable spot following the losses yesterday.

It’s a build up now towards the US PCE price index release and month-end trading.

EUR/USD kept steady just above 1.1700 with USD/JPY also just a touch higher around 144.40-60 levels for the most part. Meanwhile, USD/CHF is testing waters under 0.6800 while AUD/USD is still trying to secure a breakout above daily resistance around 0.6537-50.

This comes amid a more positive backdrop in equities as investors look towards fresh record highs in Wall Street later in the day. European indices opened higher and held that momentum, hoping to trim down some of the losses for the month. US futures remain buoyed, with S&P 500 futures now up 0.4% close to the highs.

In other markets, gold is knocked down in a push below $3,300 and is now down on the month as precious metals slide back today.

The market focus is back on trade developments and the economy/central banks, though month-end flows will distract from that a little today and on Monday. All that before a fresh start in July as we move on from the last two weeks of geopolitical tensions.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In an hour, we’ll get the latest US PCE price index where professional forecasters expect the Core PCE Y/Y to tick higher to 2.6% and the M/M figure to come in at 0.15% which could see it being rounded either to 0.1% or 0.2% depending on the last decimal.

The data won’t change anything for the Fed or the market though because it’s kinda “old news”. Forecasters (and the Fed) can reliably project the PCE data from the CPI and PPI reports. This is why the CPI is much more market-moving.

The next NFP and CPI reports will be much more important. Soft or hot figures will influence the market pricing and therefore move the markets.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.