Articles

Brazil Nominal Budget Balance fell from previous 17.9B to -41B in February

126773   March 31, 2021 20:35   FXStreet   Market News  

EUR/USD is trading above 1.17, but off the highs, as markets await President Biden’s critical infrastructure speech. Europe’s covid issues weigh on the euro while ECB’s Lagarde dared markets to test the bank. EZ CPI missed with 1.3%.  US ADP NFP also fell short with 517K. 

Canada industrial product prices for February 2.6% vs. 2.5% estimate

126772   March 31, 2021 20:33   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

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Brazil Primary Budget Surplus came in at -11.8B, above forecasts (-23.95B) in February

126771   March 31, 2021 20:33   FXStreet   Market News  

EUR/USD is trading above 1.17, but off the highs, as markets await President Biden’s critical infrastructure speech. Europe’s covid issues weigh on the euro while ECB’s Lagarde dared markets to test the bank. EZ CPI missed with 1.3%.  US ADP NFP also fell short with 517K. 

Canada Raw Material Price Index: 6.6% (February) vs 5.7%

126770   March 31, 2021 20:33   FXStreet   Market News  

EUR/USD is trading above 1.17, but off the highs, as markets await President Biden’s critical infrastructure speech. Europe’s covid issues weigh on the euro while ECB’s Lagarde dared markets to test the bank. EZ CPI missed with 1.3%.  US ADP NFP also fell short with 517K. 

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD remains confined in a range, moves little post-US ADP

126769   March 31, 2021 20:29   FXStreet   Market News  

• A modest USD pullback assisted gold to find some support near the $1677-76 region.
• The upbeat US economic outlook helped limit the USD downside and capped gains.
• A slight disappointment from the US ADP report did little to provide any impetus.

Gold extended its sideways consolidative price action through the mid-European session and remained confined in a narrow trading band around the $1,680-85 region.

The precious metal managed to find some support near the $1677-76 region, or monthly lows touched on March 8, though struggled to register any meaningful recovery. The US dollar witnessed some profit-taking from multi-month lows, which, in turn, was seen as a key factor that benefitted the dollar-denominated commodity.

However, the upbeat US economic outlook helped limit the USD downside and kept a lid on any strong gains for the XAU/USD. Investors remained hopeful about the prospects for a relatively faster US economic recovery from the pandemic amid the impressive pace of coronavirus vaccinations and US President Joe Biden’s spending plan.

On the economic data front, the ADP report showed that the US private-sector employers added 517K jobs in March as against consensus estimates pointing to a reading of 550K. Nevertheless, this still marked a notable increase from February’s upwardly revised figure of 176K (117K reported initially) and did little to impress the USD bears.

Meanwhile, a softer tone around the US Treasury bond yields was seen as another factor lending some support to the non-yielding yellow metal. That said, the commodity’s inability to gain any meaningful traction suggests that the recent bearish trend might still be far from over and any attempted bounce might be seen as a selling opportunity.

Wednesday’s US economic docket also features the release of Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales data. This will be followed by Biden’s speech at 20:20GMT, which, along with the US bond yields might influence the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, the broader market risk sentiment might also provide some impetus to the XAU/USD.

Technical levels to watch

ADP employment change 517K vs 550K estimate

126768   March 31, 2021 20:26   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

ADP employment change for March 2021

The ADP employment change for March 2021 came in at 517K vs 550K estimate

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Terra Price Prediction: LUNA must stay above key level to see $20 again

126765   March 31, 2021 20:26   FXStreet   Market News  

• Terra price is contained inside an ascending broadening wedge on the 4-hour chart.
• The digital asset must stay above a key support trend line to avoid a significant dip.
• LUNA bulls face weak resistance on way up, but correction could still be underway.

Terra price has been trading somewhat sideways in the past several days after a significant correction from its all-time high of $22.4. After the release of a new stablecoin yield protocol on the Terra blockchain, LUNA suffered a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, dropping to a low of $15.6.

Terra price must hold critical level for 8% upswing

On the 4-hour chart, LUNA has formed an ascending broadening wedge with a critical support trend line established at $18.2. LUNA buyers defended this level several times in the past four days, which means it is a vital support point for the bulls.

LUNA/USD 4-hour chart

Successfully defending this level again should lead the Terra price into a rebound toward the upper trend line at around $20. There is weak resistance ahead for LUNA.

LUNA/USD 4-hour chart

On the other hand, a loss of the key support level at $18.2 would lead LUNA into a significant breakdown toward $16.7. However, the digital asset could even fall to the next support level at $15.7.

US: Private sector employment rises by 517K in March vs. 550K expected

126764   March 31, 2021 20:21   FXStreet   Market News  

• ADP Employment Change rose to 517K in March from 176K in February.
• US Dollar Index extends its sideways grind above 93.00.

Employment in the US’ private sector increased by 517,000 in March, the monthly data published by the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute revealed on Wednesday. This reading fell short of the market expectation of 550,000. On a positive note, February’s reading got revised up to 176,000 from 117,000.

Commenting on the data, “we saw marked improvement in March’s labor market data, reporting the strongest gain since
September 2020,” noted Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Job growth in the service sector significantly outpaced its recent monthly average, led with notable increase by the leisure and hospitality industry.”

Market reaction

The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to this report and was last seen losing 0.07% on the day at 93.23.

United States ADP Employment Change registered at 517K, below expectations (550K) in March

126763   March 31, 2021 20:17   FXStreet   Market News  

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Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Opinions expressed at FXStreet are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXStreet or its management. FXStreet has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXStreet, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXStreet will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

USD/TRY meets some resistance in the 8.4000 area

126762   March 31, 2021 20:09   FXStreet   Market News  

• USD/TRY’s upside run out of steam ahead of 8.4000.
• CBRT’s Kavcioglu advocated for the tight monetary stance for now.
• The One-Week Repo Rate will be the main tool of monetary policy.

The Turkish lira depreciated to as low as the vicinity of 8.4000 vs. the dollar during early trade, although it regained some composure afterwards and dragged USD/TRY to the current 8.3000 region.

USD/TRY still looks to the CBRT

USD/TRY now struggles for direction after meeting some resistance in the 8.4000 neighbourhood earlier on Wednesday, challenging at the same time to halt the so far 4-day positive streak.

Investors, in the meantime, keep the negative view on the lira unchanged amidst escalating speculations of the resumption of the loose stance by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) as soon as at its next meeting in April.

Still around the CBRT, Governor Kavcioglu said the central bank expects to keep the status quo around monetary conditions, while he confirmed the One-Week Repo Rate to be the main monetary policy tool amidst the renewed pledge to bring down inflation to the bank’s 5% target.

Earlier in Turkey, the trade deficit widened to $3.30 billion in February and the Economic Confidence Index improved to 98.90 in March (from 95.80).

What to look for around TRY

The near-term outlook for the lira remains fragile to say the least. The new CBRT Governor S.Kavcioglu is expected to reverse (wipe out) the shift to a market friendly approach of the monetary policy that was successfully implemented by former Governor N.Agbal back in November 2020. President Erdogan’s appointment of Kavcioglu demonstrated once again whose hand is rocking the monetary cradle in Turkey and will most likely be the prelude of the return to unorthodox/looser measures of monetary policy in combination with rapidly rising bets of a balance of payments crisis and a drain of FX reserves. Against this backdrop, it will surprise nobody to see spot trading around 10.00 in the months to come.

Key events in Turkey this week: March’s Manufacturing PMI (Thursday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Potential US/EU sanctions against Ankara. Government pressure on the CBRT vs. bank’s credibility/independence. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Much-needed structural reforms. Growth outlook vs. progress of the coronavirus pandemic.

USD/TRY key levels

At the moment the pair is retreating 0.07% at 8.3027 and a drop below 7.7772 (high Mar.9) would aim for 7.4724 (200-day SMA) and then 7.1856 (monthly low Mar.19). On the upside, the next up barrier is located at 8.4526 (2021 high Mar.30) seconded by 8.5777 (all-time high Nov.6 2020) and finally 9.0000 (round level).

South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) registered at 28.96B above expectations (19.5B) in February

126761   March 31, 2021 20:05   FXStreet   Market News  

Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer.

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Opinions expressed at FXStreet are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXStreet or its management. FXStreet has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXStreet, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXStreet will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

Palladium has the 2878.04 all-time high in its sights – Commerzbank

126760   March 31, 2021 20:05   FXStreet   Market News  

Palladium continues to look perky as returned to the point of breakout and is now to head higher again. According to Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst, the precious metal targets the 2878.04 all-time high.

Key quotes

“Palladium did a return to point of breakout, close to the November and January highs at 2516.51/2511.03, before heading back up again.” 

“Since the decline from the current March high at 2758.00 looks corrective and can be subdivided into three smaller waves a, b and c, we expect the current advance to rise above the 2758.00 high towards the 2020 peak and all-time high at 2878.04.” 

“Only an unexpected slip below the 2491.10 February high would make us re-evaluate our bullish view and may lead to further sideways trading around the 2278.99 March low and above the September-to-January lows at 2202.99/2184.67 to be witnessed.”