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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Potential catalysts at sight
135065 April 30, 2021 23:45 FXStreet Market News
- Rallying base metals provide modest support to the aussie.
- US employment data and the Reserve Bank of Australia take centre stage.
- AUD/USD neutral in the long-term, with bears still side-lined.
The AUD/USD pair has continued to consolidate gains, spending a second consecutive week above the 0.7700 level but unable to break through the 0.7800 mark. The commodity-linked currency had good reasons to run, but speculative interest chose to keep on waiting for a clearer greenback’s picture.
Base metals, stocks and the aussie
Base metals such as Copper and Palladium reached record highs in the last few days amid prevalent optimism related to a global post-pandemic economic comeback. For sure, developed economies are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, and that applies both for the US and Australia. Stocks and gold prices, however, were unable to reflect the positive mood, edging marginally lower on a weekly basis, putting a cap to aussie’s potential gains.
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve had a monetary policy meeting this week, and while some analyst labeled as a “dovish” meeting, it was more of the usual wait-and-see. Fed Chair Powell balanced a cautious tone over the risk of the pandemic with optimism about economic progress. He mentioned a couple times of a near-future when the country will be beyond the curve and has eft coronavirus behind, but reminded market players that the economy still needs to recover 8.4 million jobs and that the Fed will not act until progress toward its goals on employment and inflation are materialized.
The American dollar has reasons to strengthen, but it is also on hold, ahead of a clearer picture and additional confirmations from macroeconomic figures.
Soft Australian data undermines the local currency
The US published mostly encouraging data. The CB Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 121.7 in April from 109 in March, largely surpassing the market’s expectations. Weekly unemployment claims came in at 553K, missing expectations but still near the lowest since the pandemic began, a clear sign that the employment sector is in recovery mode. Durable Goods Orders were the exception to the rule, as they increased a modest 0.5% in March. Finally, Personal Spending rose 4.2% in March, the fastest pace in nine months, while Personal Income soared 21.1%. Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s favorite measure, met the market’s expectations by printing at 1.8%.
Australia, on the other hand, had little to offer, with unimpressive outcomes. Q1 inflation figures missed the market’s expectations, as the quarterly Consumer Price Index contracted to 0.6% from 0.9%, while the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI for the same period came in at 0.3%. The Producer Price Index in the same period posted a modest 0.4% advance, slightly better than the 0.3% expected.
Where is the Australian economy?
During the next few days, the market may have a clearer picture of where the Australian economy is standing. The country will kick-start the week by publishing April manufacturing indexes and April TD Securities Inflation. On Tuesday, the RBA will announce its decision on Monetary Policy, although central bankers are expected to maintain the current policy on hold. As the week develops, Australia will also offer updates on Services PMI and housing-related data.
The US macroeconomic calendar will include the April official ISM PMIs, expected to show persistent economic growth. The focus will be on employment-related data, starting on Wednesday with the ADP survey on private jobs creation and ending on Friday with the Nonfarm Payrolls report. The country is expected to have added 926K new jobs in April, while the unemployment rate is expected to have shrunk to 5.8% from 6% in the previous month.
AUD/USD technical outlook
The AUD/USD pair is technically neutral in the longer perspective, with a mildly bullish potential. The weekly chart shows that it held above a bullish 20 SMA, but also that the longer moving averages lack directional strength, far below the current level. Technical indicators head nowhere, as the Momentum indicator is around its midline and the RSI at 60, indicating absent selling interest.
On the daily time-frame, the pair continues to seesaw between gains and losses. It holds above bullish moving averages, with the 20 and 100 SMA converging around the 0.7700 figure, but technical indicators keep losing strength within positive levels.
A corrective decline could take place on a break below the 0.7690 support, with the next levels to watch at 0.7600 and 0.7531. To the upside, the pair needs to advance beyond 0.7820 to be able to extend its gains toward the 0.7900 region.
AUD/USD sentiment poll
According to the FXStreet Forecast Poll, the AUD/USD pair will extend its consolidative phase in the upcoming weeks. The pair is seen on average at 0.7737 weekly basis, as the number of bulls matches the number of those betting for a decline. The monthly and quarterly perspective have a majority of bears, but the pair is expected to hold within the current levels.
The Overview chart shows that moving averages remain flat, although the 3-month one is slowly picking up, skewing the risk to the upside without confirming an advance. The range of possible targets is well limited, although in the longer term, higher highs appear, signaling bullish intentions from experts.
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EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: When will the dollar advance on self-strength?
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GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: BOE’s Super Thursday and Nonfarm Payrolls promise explosive action
Full Article
USD/JPY Weekly Forecast: In the US its GDP vs inflation
135057 April 30, 2021 23:40 FXStreet Market News
- Bank of Japan may extend relief programs past September.
- Dovish Powell refuses to say when bond purchases will be reduced.
- Treasury yields offer possible counterpoint to Fed monetary policy.
- Rising US inflation can erode real interest rates.
Central bank policy in Japan and the United States captivated headlines this week but the dollar’s long-term position is under increasing threat from the erosion of real interest rates by inflation.
The USD/JPY rose moderately but remained below resistance at 109.30, as offsetting dovish outlooks from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Federal Reserve left the pair without motive.
In Japan, the BOJ kept monetary policy unchanged as universally anticipated. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he is prepared to extend the pandemic relief programs beyond the September deadline. He did not expect inflation to reach its 2% target by the time of his retirement in early 2023.
Rising COVID-19 cases and a slow vaccination rollout have brought on a third state of emergency in Tokyo, Osaka and two other prefectures, inhibiting prospects for an economic recovery, though the BOJ did raise its quarterly growth forecast. The USD/JPY saw its largest one day gain of the week after the BOJ meeting on Tuesday.
In the US, the central bank also left policy unaltered. Fed Chair Jerome Powell refused to speculate when or under what conditions the governors might reduce the $120 billion of monthly asset purchases that have pinned the short end of the Treasury yield curve.
The US economy expanded at a 6.4% annualised rate in the first quarter, slightly more than predicted. Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 553,000 in the latest week, the lowest level of the pandemic era. Inflation was stronger than projected in March with the headline Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) rising 2.3% on the year, oustripping the 1.6% forecast by a wide margin. Core PCE was 1.8% as expected.
The current bout of US inflation is temporary and largely due to the base effect from the steep decline in prices last year during the lockdown, as the Fed has asserted.
But behind the immediate rationale, fast rising commodity prices, consumer demand and massive spending by the Federal government may be altering the general price structure.
If the basal inflation rate in the US does increase it will undermine the advantage that rising Treasury yields have provided the dollar this year.
American consumer sentiment rose sharply in April. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 121.7 from 109.0 in March, far ahead of the 113.0 estimate. It was the best reading since February 2020 and the 31.3 increase in the index over two months was the largest in the history of the series which goes back to 1967.
Treasury yields were higher on the week opening at 1.56% on Monday and ending 10 basis points to the good at 1.64% on Friday.
In Japan, Retail Trade (sales) rose 5.2% for the year in March, the highest increase since last October and a strong reversal of April’s 1.5% decline. Industrial Production was also much more vibrant than forecast at 4% in March on a 0.0% forecast and 2% decrease in February.
Inflation was again a cause for BOJ concern as annual Tokyo CPI fell 0.6% in April, three times the -0.2% forecast.
USD/JPY outlook
The USD/JPY has been propelled this year by the rise in US interest rates and that advantage will continue to underpin the USD/JPY this week
Though the long-term benefit to the dollar is under potential threat as US inflation climbs, reducing the real interest rate margin, for the moment the trade impact is limited.
The 10-year Treasury yield has added over 70 basis points since the New Year and 10 this week. In the past month US CPI has jumped from 1.7% to 2.6% and it is expected to rise further as the base index differential over last year increases.
American economic growth is easily outpacing Japan’s and the pandemic status in the US adds to the dollar’s advantage.
Treasury rates will rise despite the Feds obvious reluctance to sanction such, but the key is inflation, though the answer will not be conclusive for several months.
If inflation assumes a higher plateau, the impact on real US interest rates–nominal rates minus inflation–could actually reduce the return on US debt in comparison to foreign competitors. This is particularly relevant for Japan where the extremely low or negative inflation rate adds to the return of Japanese Government Bonds (JGB).
For the immediate future markets will consider US inflation temporary and slowly rising Treasury rates will support the USD/JPY.
Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday should provide the dollar with a good base throughout the week as nearly a million new positions are forecast. Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for April will emphasize the excellent business prospects.
Technically, the resistance at 109.30 is not strong but the USD/JPY should be contained below the March high close of 110.96.
Japan statistics April 26–April 30
The BOJ meeting offered no changes in policy thouygh the extension of pandemic relief past September gae the USD/JPY a small boost. Inflation, or rather deflation is again a problem for the BOJ with Tokyo prices falling for the seventh straight month.
FXStreet
US statistics April 26–April 30
The Fed’s pronounced caution put a crimp in the dollar this week. Otherwise, the stellar US economic performance could have been expected to push Treasury rates and the dollar higher. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s formulation “substantial further progress” for when the bank may consider tapering its bond purchases, gave no indication when or under what economic circumstances the bank might act. Mr. Powell repeated the phrase in response to every question from reporters that sought clarification. From his studied performance, it may be deduced that Mr. Powell, and presumably the governors, feel it necessary to avoid any optimism lest that give the Treasury market a reason to drive rates higher.
FXStreet
Japan statistics May 3–May 7
No data market importance this week.
FXStreet
US statistics May 3–May 7
The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for manufacturing and services should confirm the powerful business support for the expansion. Friday’s April payroll report is expected to be anouther blow-out and anticipation should keep the dollar bid throughout the week.
GBP/USD tumbles toward 1.3800 lowest in two weeks, as US Dollar soars
135056 April 30, 2021 23:40 FXStreet Market News
- DXY jumps above 91.00 to the highest level in a week.
- GBP/USD heads for a weekly loss after being unable to break 1.4000.
The GBP/USD accelerated the decline during the American session and tumbled to 1.3806, reaching the lowest level since April 16. The pair remains under pressure near the lows as the US dollar holds onto important daily gains.
The slide in GBP/USD was triggered by a rally of the US dollar across the board and amid a decline in equity prices. The DXY soared to 91.25, reaching weekly highs. The index gains 0.70% on Friday. In Wall Street, the Dow Jones drops by 0.75% and the Nasdaq by 0.60%.
Technical outlook
Friday’s slide during the American session deteriorated the outlook for the pound. Yohay Elam, Analyst at FXStreet, points out that all in all, “bulls are in the lead but lack absolute control.” He notes the daily chart shows the GBP/USD “is confined to range – from the double-bottom of 1.3670 to the quadruple top of 1.4010. The currency pair’s recent upside drift has pushed it above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and continues trading above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs. On the other hand, it has been unable to capture the broken uptrend support line that accompanied since late last year and until mid-March.”
Next week is a busy week for cable that could boost volatility with the Bank of England meeting and important US economic data that includes the Non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
Technical levels
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NY Fed GDPNowcast for Q2 climbs to 5.28% from 4.57%
135054 April 30, 2021 23:21 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Strong consumption drives the increase
We got 6.4% GDP growth in yesterday’s first look at US Q1 GDP. That will be revised but it will remain a great quarter.
We’re three months away from any data but given the reopening momentum, I’ll take the ‘over’.
Full Article
US: NY Fed’s GDP Nowcast rises to 5.3% for Q2 after this week’s data
135053 April 30, 2021 23:21 FXStreet Market News
The US economy is expected to grow by 5.3% in the second quarter of 2021, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Nowcasting Report showed on Friday.
“The advance estimate from the Commerce Department of real GDP growth for 2021:Q1, released on April 29, was 6.4%. The latest New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2021:Q1 was 6.7%,” the NY Fed noted. “News from this week’s data releases increased the nowcast for 2021:Q2 by 0.7 percentage point. Positive surprises from personal consumption and disposable income data drove the increase.”
Market reaction
The US Dollar Index continues to push higher after this report and was last seen gaining 0.7% on the day at 91.25.
Full Article
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: BOE’s Super Thursday and Nonfarm Payrolls promise explosive action
135045 April 30, 2021 23:21 FXStreet Market News
- GBP/USD advanced in response to the Fed’s dovish decision, but gains were limited.
- The first week of May features the Bank of England rate decision and Nonfarm Payrolls.
- Late April’s daily chart is showing bears are gaining some ground.
- The FX Poll is pointing to further range trading before an upside move later on.
No tapering for now – the Fed’s dovish message has weighed on the dollar, but British issues have limited sterling’s ability to rise. Will bears or bulls take the lead? New forecasts from the BOE and another potential blockbuster US jobs report stand out as a new month begins.
This week in GBP/USD: Goldilocks Fed, but not for sterling
Fed fires dollars on cylinders: The world’s most powerful central bank acknowledges America’s fast recovery but continues seeing rising inflation as only “transitory.” More importantly, the bank is set to continue buying bonds at its elevated pace of $120 billion/month for the foreseeable future – a move that keeps stocks happy and the dollar down.
Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, insisted that inflation results from known base effects and bottlenecks, also temporary in nature. He also repeated the mantra that the Fed would only act after seeing “substantial further progress.” At this time, the economy “has a long way to go,” according to the Fed Chair.
US Gross Domestic Product figures cast some doubts on that notion. At the same time, output grew by 6.4% annualized, as expected, the surge in consumption, rise in investment and drop in inventories all point to an even faster expansion down the line.
US GDP Quick Analysis: Strong growth now, stronger even later, three reasons for the dollar to rise
One of the main reasons for robust US growth comes from fiscal policy – President Joe Biden’s COVID-19 relief plan worth $1.9 trillion. While his $2.25 trillion infrastructure program is still making its way through Congress, the Commander-in-Chief presented another package worth $1.8 trillion.
Contrary to the first boost and similar to the second one, the administration plans tax hikes. So far, markets have shrugged such business-unfriendly news off. The news is partially priced in, and investors probably doubt that lawmakers in Washington would realize Biden’s full ambitions.
Coronavirus cases have extended their downtrend on both sides of the Atlantic. The UK reached over 50% of its population with at least one jab, a feat that allows further reopening – including an experimental event at a disco. Infections in the US have also turned down after a moderate wave early in April.
Covid infections in the US, the EU and the UK
Source: FT
Nevertheless, Britain’s immunization achievements are already in the price, while new and old political issues have come to haunt the pound. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been under fire for asking Conservative Party donors to fund the renovation at his Downing Street residence. Allegations that he preferred seeing “bodies pile in the streets” over forcing another lockdown have also hurt his standing.
Another issue is Brexit, which refuses to die. Arlene Foster, leader of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), announced she would step down. Her resignation is another sign of the crisis around the NI protocol, which has suffered a deadlock in EU-UK negotiations. Resolving issues related to the services sector remains an open issue as well.
All in all, dollar weakness allowed GBP/USD to rise, but gains were limited.
UK events: BOE to boost forecasts
Will the PM’s scandals fade away like previous ones? If the government struggles with political issues, it will find less time to manage the recovery. Brexit developments are also eyed, with a potential burst of violence in Belfast never far from sight.
On the other hand, Britain’s vaccination campaign is set to gain further steam as the “dry month” of April comes to an end. An acceleration could boost sterling, while any unlikely uptick in cases – potentially due to variants – would pummel the pound.
Source: The Guardian
The Bank of England’s “Super Thursday” decision is left, right and center on the economic calendar. Contrary to the previous event, the BOE publishes its quarterly Monetary Policy Report, including new growth and inflation forecasts. Moreover, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues could also use the opportunity to offer hints about future policy.
The bank is set to maintain its £895 billion Quantitative Easing program unchanged, and expanding it seems unlikely now that the government can fund itself more easily. What about the interest rate? After flirting with the idea of setting negative borrowing costs, Bailey clarified it remains a distinct possibility.
The BOE is likely to lay out an optimistic path for Britain’s recovery during the next few quarters after the economy has shown resilience during the harsh winter months and as everything returns to normal. Does this mean raising rates? That is highly unlikely, as UK inflation remains weak.
Moreover, after the Fed dismissed rising prices as a transitory effect and wants to keep the pedal to the metal, there is no reason for the BOE to step forward. All in all, there is a good chance that Bailey and Co. acknowledge the recovery but stress that tightening is not on the cards.
The UK economic calendar also features Markit’s final Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for April, but they will likely play second fiddle to the BOE.
Here is the list of UK events from the FXStreet calendar:
US events: Full buildup to Nonfarm Payrolls
Since Johnson & Johnson’s vaccines were suspended – though later reinstated – America’s immunization pace has slowed down. It peaked at 3.3 million and has dropped to 2.67 million doses per day. Is this a reason to worry? Over 43% of the population has received at least one jab, causing cases, hospitalizations and deaths to fall sharply.
While New York City and other places are accelerating their reopening, the inoculations’ chart remains relevant for traders.
Vaccine progress in the US:
Source: NYT
President Joe Biden has some $4 trillion in spending and tax plans in the pipeline. How much of these ideas will get over the line? The White House and Congress are deliberating these significant changes to the US economy, but markets are shrugging it off, perhaps assuming that little will get done. Like vaccinations, this story is on the backburner but could burst into the spotlight at any point.
The focus will undoubtedly be on economic figures, especially on Friday with April’s Nonfarm Payrolls publication. A full buildup awaits traders during the week. The first hint comes from the ISM Manufacturing Purchasers’ Managers’ Index, which will likely hold up at high ground around March’s 64.9 level. The employment component is critical for the NFP.
ADP’s labor market figures are forecast to show a faster creation of private-sector jobs and cause jitters in markets. However, it is essential to note that America’s largest payroll company’s figures have not been well-correlated with official statistics. Wednesday’s second release is of higher importance.
The ISM Services PMI is the last and perhaps most important signal as most Americans work there. The calendar is pointing to further gains beyond March’s 63.7 – an all-time high. The employment component is central, and so is the Prices Paid one, amid concerns of rising inflation.
Thursday’s weekly jobless claims for the week ending April 30 are out of the NFP’s scope but could affect traders’ mindset as tension mounts toward Friday.
Finally, April’s job figures are here. At the same time, the calendar is pointing to an increase of 925,000 – a superb gain in pre-pandemic standards – some project an even faster increase in hiring. Anecdotal evidence from the spring month is pointing to accelerated job growth.
For the dollar, the reaction is straightforward – over a million new positions should keep the greenback bid, especially if accompaniedit by an increase in the participation rate, an indicator of confidence. Any sub-million gain could be considered a disappointment.
Wage growth is also of interest, as a pickup in salaries would signal rising inflation, but a fresh focus on earnings would probably have to wait for long.
Here are the upcoming top US events this week:
GBP/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that pound/dollar is confined to range – from the double-bottom of 1.3670 to the quadruple top of 1.4010. The currency pair’s recent upside drift has pushed it above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and continues trading above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs. On the other hand, it has been unable to capture the broken uptrend support line that accompanied since late last year and until mid-March.
All in all, bulls are in the lead but lack absolute control.
Support awaits GBP/USD at 1.3820, which was a low point in mid-April. It is closely followed by 1.3775, a trough in mid-March before 1.3670, mentioned earlier. Further down, 1.3565 is noteworthy.
At the time of writing, cable is battling 1.3920, which held it down in early April. Above 1.4010, the next noteworthy cap is 1.4140, which was a high point in February. It is followed by the 2021 peak of 1.4240.
GBP/USD sentiment
Will May be the month in which the dollar reasserts itself? A strong jobs report could send GBP/USD to the bottom of the range, regardless of an upbeat message by the BOE. Both events are critical.
The FXStreet Forecast Poll is showing that experts see a period of consolidation around current levels before GBP/USD breaks out in the longer term. Average targets are little changed since last week’s poll. It seems that those surveyed are accepting the current range trading.
Related reads
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EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: When will the dollar advance on self-strength?
135041 April 30, 2021 23:12 FXStreet Market News
- US macroeconomic data confirmed the post-pandemic recovery is underway.
- Investors will focus next week on US employment-related data.
- EUR/USD loses bullish scope, not yet confirming an upcoming slide.
The EUR/USD pair surged this week to 1.2149, its highest in over two months, but was unable to sustain gains and finished the week flat a handful of pips below the 1.2100 level. The macroeconomic calendar left quite a clear picture: the US economic recovery is two steps ahead of that of its major competitors. However, investors still struggle to decide whether to buy the greenback on upbeat US macroeconomic data or sell it in favor of high-yielding assets.
Central banks and growth
The US Federal Reserve was the factor that skewed the balance against the greenback this week, as investors were hoping for some tapering chit-chat among policymakers, but chief Jerome Powell repeated his usual mantra of “further substantial progress” toward the Fed’s goals before even thinking about modifying the monetary policy. Powell made it clear that tightening is still off the table, saying it is too early to think about it.
The US and the EU published the first estimates of their Q1 Gross Domestic Product. The US figure was upbeat, as the economy grew by 6.4% vs the 6.1% expected. On the other hand, the Union’s economy contracted by 0.6% in the same period amid local lockdowns and restrictions aimed to control the third wave or coronavirus.
Why is the USD not rallying?
The American currency lacks self-strength. Improving macroeconomic numbers spur optimism, which then translates into demand for high-yielding assets, including currencies from countries that are not in that good shape or see a delayed comeback from the pandemic downturn. This situation cannot extend forever. At some point, the greenback will run on upbeat data, but it takes more than a swallow to make a summer. Constant growth could be confirmed with Q3 GDP figures. Sooner confirmation will come with monthly employment data, as US Federal Reserve head Powell repeated multiple times that the country still has 8.4 million jobs to recover to return to pre-pandemic levels. Being optimistic, the greenback could begin strengthening by early July.
Other data released this week confirmed the imbalance on the path to recovery. German data was quite worrisome, as most numbers missed the market’s expectations. The Q1 GDP in the country printed at -1.7%, missing the -1.5% expected, while the number of unemployed people in the country increased by 9K vs a 10K expected drop. Consumer Confidence in the country plunged to -8.8 in May, while the April IFO Business Climate survey improved just modestly to 96.8.
The US CB Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 121.7 in April from 109 in March, largely surpassing the market’s expectations. Weekly unemployment claims came in at 553K, missing expectations but still near the lowest since the pandemic began, a clear sign that the employment sector is in recovery mode. Durable Goods Orders were the exception to the rule, as they increased a modest 0.5% in March.
Personal spending rose 4.2% in March, the fastest pace in nine months, while Personal Income soared 21.1%. Core PCE inflation the Fed’s favorite measure, met the market’s expectations by printing at 1.8%.
What’s next?
On Monday, Germany will publish March Retail Sales, while Markit will unveil the final readings of April Manufacturing PMIs. The US will release the official April ISM Manufacturing PMI, foreseen at 64.9 from 64.7 in the previous month.
On Wednesday, Markit will publish the April final Services PMIs for the EU and the US, while the latter will offer the official figure, forecasted to improve to 64. The focus will then shift to US employment-related data as the country will release the ADP survey on private jobs’ creation, foreseen at 750K.
The star of the week will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, to be out on Friday. The economy is expected to have added 926K new jobs in April, while the unemployment rate is expected to have shrunk to 5.8% from 6% in the previous month.
EUR/USD technical outlook
The EUR/USD pair is giving signs of bullish exhaustion. The weekly chart shows that it has failed to add positive momentum, barely holding above a directionless 20 SMA. The longer moving averages maintain their bullish slope far below the current level, but technical indicators reflect limited buying interest. The Momentum is currently retreating from its midline, while the RSI stands pat at around 57.
Technical readings in the daily chart suggest that a corrective decline may soon begin. Indicators keep retreating from overbought readings, and while still above their midlines, they keep gaining bearish strength. The 100 DMA provided support throughout the week at 1.2050, the level to watch for a bearish corrective extension. Once below the level, the slide could continue toward 1.1960, the next relevant support en route to 1.1880. Beyond the weekly high at 1.2149, the pair has room to extend its gains toward the 1.2230/40 price zone.
EUR/USD sentiment poll
The FXStreet Forecast Poll offers a mixed picture. In the case of the EUR/USD pair, bulls dominate the near-term outlook, but bears took over in the monthly and quarterly perspectives. The pair is seen on average at 1.2074 in the upcoming days, and trading below the 1.2000 figure afterwards.
The Overview chart suggests that bears are gaining ground. In the near term, the moving average is flat, while the quarterly one gains bearish strength. In all the time-frame under study, the range of possible targets is limited. The pair is hardly seen losing the 1.1800 threshold, while the upper end of the range is 1.2200 in the monthly view, with some exceptions above it in the quarterly perspective.
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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Markets revert to mean, but BTC price remains indecisive
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US dollar climbs to session high into the fix
135040 April 30, 2021 23:05 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The models were wrong
There was some heavy buying of the US dollar into the month-end London fix. That was unexpected with bank models showing dollar selling as likely.
I tend to think the trade is to fade big moves on the fix but keep the broader backdrop in mind.
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EUR/USD slumps below 1.2050 pressured by month-end flows
135039 April 30, 2021 23:05 FXStreet Market News
- EUR/USD pair came under strong bearish pressure during American session.
- US Dollar Index posts strong gains above 91.00.
- EUR/USD remains on track to snap three-week winning streak.
The EUR/USD pair fell sharply in the last hour and touched a fresh weekly low of 1.2036. At the moment, the pair is losing 0.64% on the day at 1.2040 and remains on track to close the week in the negative territory. In the absence of a significant fundamental driver, the recent decline seems to be a product of month-end flows into London fix.
Earlier in the day, the data published by Eurostat showed that the eurozone economy contracted at an annual rate of 1.8% in the first quarter. On a positive note, the Unemployment Rate in the euro area edged lower to 8.1% in March and came in better than the market expectation of 8.3%. Nevertheless, these figures failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction.
DXY rises above 91.00 after US data
In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose to 1.8% on a yearly basis in March from 1.4% in February as expected. Additionally, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 88.3 (final) in April from 84.9 in March.
On the back of these upbeat figures, the US Dollar Index extended its rebound and rose above 91.00, allowing the bearish pressure on EUR/USD to gather strength.
There won’t be any other data releases in the remainder of the day and EUR/USD is likely to start consolidating its daily losses ahead of the weekend.
Technical levels to watch for
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UK study warns on covid variant risks for people who have only had one vaccine dose
135037 April 30, 2021 22:49 Forexlive Latest News Market News
This is significant
This is a problem and a negative for global growth.
Many countries are stretching the timelines between the first and second doses of vaccines so they can get more people partially vaccinated.
An Imperial College study of the Pfizer vaccine in UK healthcare workers found that people who have had only one dose are at risk from covid variants.
Risk trades have dipped back down on the headline. I’m looking for more details in terms of the potential severity. But take a place like Canada, which is staggering the doses by 4 months to get one jab into people faster. It should be widely available for a first dose in June and hopes are for the economy to mostly reopen afterwards but problems with vaccines and variants could push that back by months, and slow the recovery.
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Dogecoin Price Forecast: DOGE on the cusp of a massive 85% explosion
135034 April 30, 2021 22:49 FXStreet Market News
- Dogecoin price is on the verge of a breakout from a bull flag established on the daily chart.
- The digital asset only faces one critical resistance level before a potential breakout to new all-time highs.
- Another key pattern formed on the 4-hour chart, will be decisive in the short-term momentum of DOGE.
Dogecoin price had another surge in the last three days jumping toward $0.348. The digital asset still aims for new all-time highs and it’s only facing one critical resistance level at $0.32.
Dogecoin price must overcome this barrier for new all-time highs
On the daily chart, Dogecoin price formed a bull flag which could be on the verge of a breakout. The most significant resistance level is formed at around $0.32. A daily candlestick close above this point would confirm a breakout.
DOGE/USD daily chart
This breakout has a price target of $0.57, which would be a new all-time high. There is only one in-between target at $0.45.
Additionally, on the 4-hour chart, Dogecoin formed an ascending triangle pattern which can be drawn with an upper horizontal trend line and another one connecting the higher lows. The resistance level coincides with the one above at $0.32.
DOGE/USD 4-hour chart
However, if Dogecoin price gets rejected at the top, it can quickly fall toward the lower boundary of the pattern at $0.29. A 4-hour candlestick close below this point would confirm a breakdown with a 35% price target at $0.193.
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1066 | +0.259% | AUDJPY USDCAD DAX
134375 April 30, 2021 22:37 SwingFish Trading Room Journal AUDJPY • DAX • USDCAD
Session Data: Asia Events: Consumer Price Index [EUR=zone] Bank Holidays: Greece, Romania, Denmark Divergences (12H): ++CAD +JPY -USD -EUR -GBP
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