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Brazil Nominal Budget Balance down to -37.4B in May from previous 30B
150661 June 30, 2021 20:33 FXStreet Market News
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Brazil Primary Budget Surplus came in at -15.5B, above forecasts (-20B) in May
150660 June 30, 2021 20:33 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
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GBP/USD pares intraday gains, up little around mid-1.3800s post-US ADP
150659 June 30, 2021 20:26 FXStreet Market News
- GBP/USD gained traction on Wednesday and recovered a major part of the overnight losses.
- Some cross-driven strength from a fall in the EUR/GBP extended some support to the major.
- Hawkish Fed expectations, stronger US ADP report underpinned the USD and capped gains.
The GBP/USD pair maintained its bid tone through the early North American session, albeit has retreated few pips from daily tops and was last seen trading around mid-1.3800s.
As investors looked past Wednesday’s softer UK GDP print, the GBP/USD pair attracted some buying near the 1.3815 region and has now reversed the previous day’s losses to over one-week lows. The uptick lacked any obvious fundamental catalyst and could be solely attributed to some cross-driven strength stemming from an intraday turnaround in the EUR/GBP pair.
Bulls further took cues from hawkish remarks by the Bank of England Chief Economist, Andy Haldane, saying that rising inflationary pressures call for immediate thought, and action, on unwinding the QE. Haldane expects UK inflation to be nearer to 4% by the end of the year than 3% and avoiding inflation surprise is one of the key tasks of the central bank.
Meanwhile, the supporting factor, to a larger extent, was offset by worries about the spread of the more contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus. This, along with a mildly bid tone surrounding the US dollar strength, held traders from placing any aggressive bullish bets and kept a lid on any further gains for the GBP/USD pair, at least for the time being.
The USD held on to its modest gains following the release of the ADP report, which showed that private-sector employers added 692K new jobs in June. This marked a notable deceleration from the previous month’s blowout reading of nearly one million but was still better-than-consensus estimates pointing to a reading of 600K.
Meanwhile, a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields capped any meaningful upside for the greenback and continued lending some support to the GBP/USD pair. Wednesday’s US economic docket also features the release of Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. The key focus, however, will remain on Friday’s US monthly jobs report, popularly known as NFP.
Technical levels to watch
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United States ADP Employment Change came in at 692K, above expectations (600K) in June
150658 June 30, 2021 20:26 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
US June ADP employment +692K vs +600K expected
150657 June 30, 2021 20:21 Forexlive Latest News Market News
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US: Private sector employment rises by 692K in June vs. 600K expected
150656 June 30, 2021 20:21 FXStreet Market News
- ADP Employment Change came in higher than expected in June.
- US Dollar Index continues to move sideways above 92.00.
Employment in the US’ private sector increased by 692,000 in June, the monthly data published by the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute revealed on Wednesday. This reading followed May’s print of 886,000 (revised from 978,000) and surpassed the market expectation of 600,000.
Commenting on the data, “the labor market recovery remains robust, with June closing out a strong second quarter of jobs growth,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “While payrolls are still nearly 7 million short of pre-COVID19 levels, job gains have totalled about 3 million since the beginning of 2021.”
Market reaction
This report doesn’t seem to be having a significant impact on the greenback’s performance against its major rivals. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged on the day at 92.08.
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Russell 2000 (IWM) technical forecast: Triple top for bears or bullish breakout
150653 June 30, 2021 20:21 FXStreet Market News
- Russell 2000 (IWM), the broadest market index, is lagging.
- Nasdaq makes more record highs but it needs support.
- Russell (IWM) is stuck in a range and needs to move.
For a broader more comprehensive view of the market, the Russell 2000 (IWM) is a good proxy given it makes up 2000 stocks, while the Nasdaq and Dow are narrowly concentrated. The dow is practically invitation only with just 30 stocks, the Nasdaq has the top 100 and even the S&P is a bit narrowly focused with 500 stocks. Apologies if this is a bit obvious but we try and cater to a broad range of traders here at FXStreet and some may have dipped across from FX and not be too familiar with the makeup of the main US equity indices. So we have now established that the Russell is the broadest measure of the overall US equity market, how is it performing? Well, it is frankly lagging and needs to pull its socks up before it pulls everything down. The Nasdaq has recently taken on a leadership role and outperformed the other main indices for June. Reversing its underperformance earlier in the year. We have mentioned previously, but the inflation and yield fear that spooked markets have subsided. The US 10-year yield was heading for 2% but has now retreated and appears to be planning a quiet summer below 1.5%. The Fed did its best to convince markets that inflation will indeed be transitory to use its own language. Whether this pans out or not has yet to be seen and the latest inflation data, US PCE, and wholesale prices hit multi-decade highs.
But for now, markets have put inflation worries to the back of their minds which allowed the interest rate sensitive Nasdaq to surge. Apple (AAPL) had been slumbering but has recently put in a nice move (see here) and Tesla (TSLA) too, has turned things around, surging through some key levels (see here). Facebook (FB) joined the $1 trillion dollar club, Microsoft (MSFT) joined the $2 trillion dollar club and Alphabet (GOOGL) set more record highs.
But can all this Nasdaq boom continue while other stocks and indices are left in the dust? The chart below shows us the relative performance of the main indices since April. The Russell (IWM) underperformed in May along with the Nasdaq but by early june had caught back up. But this trend has resurfaced in late June for the Russell but the Nasdaq has surged to new highs. So will the Russell play catch up or is it signaling to us that things are about to turn?
Russell 2000 (IWM) forecast
Just a quick word on the relative means of trading the Russell Index. For analysis, we are using the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), ticker IWM as opposed to using the futures contract, ticker RTY. Both are more or less mirror images.
From the chart below we can see the large, effectively sideways range the Russell has traded in since, well since 2021 basically. While the other indices have proudly been showing off regular new highs, the Russell appears unloved. This cannot continue forever at some stage something has to give. We pointed out in our analysis of the S&P 500 on Tuesday (see here) that the Nasdaq RSI (Relative Strength Index) had crept into overbought territory and that remains the case. The delta variant is also growing in spread and causing fresh lockdowns in parts of Asia and a delay to reopening of economies in some EU countries. Finally, we identified the VIX at low and slumber levels but Tuesday saw a modest 3% spike to 16.5 not huge, but worth watching.
So no strong trend in evidence for the Russell (IWM) to fall back on. The 9 and 21-day moving averages are flat lining as is the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). The RSI is trending lower. Breakouts can be powerful trades to jump on and if the Russell does manage it then expect a strong continuation. $234.53 remains the high and breakout from March. A retracement to $205 could get ugly due to a lack of volume beneath. Putting in a retracement here would mean a bearish triple top.
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Will the market take the ADP bait again?
150651 June 30, 2021 20:12 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The recent track record of this report is dismal
Since the beginning of the pandemic, the ADP employment report has been downright useless in predicting non-farm payrolls, yet the market falls for it again and again.
Last month was particularly bad with 978K jobs sparking talk of 1m in non-farm payrolls. Instead, the NFP report was at a below-consensus reading at 559K. The month before was even worse.
But like a bad trader who never learns to manage risk, the market will eat it up again this week. The consensus is +600K.
Full Article
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steady going into month/quarter-end
150650 June 30, 2021 20:05 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Forex news from the European trading session – 30 June 2021
Headlines:
Markets:
- GBP leads, CHF lags on the day
- European equities lower; S&P 500 futures flat
- US 10-year yields down 1.5 bps to 1.456%
- Gold flat at $1,760.25
- WTI up 1.3% to $73.93
- Bitcoin down 3.5% to $34,916
It was a quiet session for the most part once again with the market getting more of taste of the summer lull, with the dollar keeping steady while equities drifted.
European indices are seen pulling back after yesterday’s gains while the mood in US futures is rather muted and tepid, though things may get more lively at the London fix later.
Month/Quarter-end flows will be a factor to watch out for before the day ends but in FX, there doesn’t seem to be much happening overall.
The pound is up slightly as cable recovers from 1.3820 to 1.3860 but is still keeping below key near-term levels @ 1.3885-95 with 1.3800 providing downside support.
The dollar remains steady overall as it sits a bit more mixed on the day with narrow ranges largely holding. EUR/USD keeps in a 26 pips range around 1.1890-00 while USD/JPY is holding in a 16 pips range around 110.50 with large expiries in play.
The grind towards the US non-farm payrolls later this week continues.
Full Article
South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) above forecasts (46.5B) in May: Actual (54.6B)
150649 June 30, 2021 20:05 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
India Infrastructure Output (YoY) declined to 16.8% in May from previous 56.1%
150648 June 30, 2021 20:02 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Brazil Unemployment Rate meets forecasts (14.7%) in April
150647 June 30, 2021 20:02 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.