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US Dollar Index Price Analysis: DXY bulls need validation from 96.00
US Dollar Index Price Analysis: DXY bulls need validation from 96.00

US Dollar Index Price Analysis: DXY bulls need validation from 96.00

198535   January 25, 2022 09:49   FXStreet   Market News  

  • DXY remains sidelined after failing to cross short-term key resistances.
  • Six-week-old descending trend line, 50-DMA guards immediate upside.
  • Bullish MACD signals keep buyers hopeful aboe crucial Fibonacci retracement levels, 100-DMA.

US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles to extend the previous day’s run-up around a fortnight high, taking rounds to 92.90 during early Tuesday.

The greenback gauge pierced a multi-day-old resistance line and the 50-DMA the previous day but couldn’t keep the breakout on a daily closing basis.

However, bullish MACD signals join the DXY’s sustained run-up beyond the 100-DMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of October-November 2021 upside to keep buyers hopeful.

That said, a clear upside break of the 96.00 hurdle will propel the US Dollar Index towards the monthly high of 96.46 before directing the quote to the year 2021 peak of 96.94.

Meanwhile, pullback moves may take rests around 38.2% and 50.0% Fibo. levels, respectively near 95.55 and 95.10.

Though, the 100-DMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, close to 94.90 and 94.68 in that order, will be crucial supports to watch for the DXY bears afterward.

To sum up, US Dollar Index keeps the upside momentum but a rally needs to cross the 96.0 resistance.

DXY: Daily chart

Trend: Further upside expected

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USD/TRY snaps two-day uptrend around $13.50 amid sluggish markets
USD/TRY snaps two-day uptrend around $13.50 amid sluggish markets

USD/TRY snaps two-day uptrend around $13.50 amid sluggish markets

198534   January 25, 2022 09:49   FXStreet   Market News  

  • USD/TRY remains pressured around intraday low, stays inside weekly trading range.
  • Market sentiment dwindles as traders await Fed, Russia-Ukraine tussles escalate.
  • Turkish Treasury sellers more lira bond, energy crisis pushes diplomats to visit Iran.
  • Second-tier data from Turkey, US CB Consumer Confidence will decorate calendar but FOMC will be the key.

USD/TRY fails to keep the previous two-day advances, recently sidelined around $13.48 during early Tuesday.

The Turkish lira (TRY) pair’s latest losses could be linked to the market’s consolidation ahead of the key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, not to forget hopes of the Turkish government’s ability to defend the national currency and solve the energy crisis at home.

On Monday, Turkey’s Treasury department sold net 1,984.8 million lira of 2-year fixed-coupon bond in the auction, per Reuters. The news also mentioned the government’s selling of 10,287.5 million lira of CPI-indexed 6-year bond.

Elsewhere, a team of Turkish diplomats visits Iran after a political rift with Tehran marked the biggest ever power cut and challenged the industrial production at home.

It’s worth noting, however, that fears of the Fed rate hike and a war of words relating to the Russia-Ukraine situations exert downside pressure on the market sentiment, as well as favoring the US dollar due to its risk barometer status.

Looking forward, Turkey’s Capacity Utilization and Manufacturing Confidence for January may entertain USD/TRY traders ahead of the US CB Consumer Confidence for the said month. Though, major attention will be given to Wednesday’s FOMC amid hopes of getting clues for the March rate hike, which in turn could propel the pair prices.

Read: Fed Preview: Three ways Powell could out-dove markets, dealing a blow to the dollar

Technical analysis

Failures to provide a clear upside break of a two-week-old resistance suggest the USD/TRY pair’s further grinding around $13.50. Though, higher low formation keeps buyers hopeful.

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US Blinken says returning to Iran nuclear deal is still the preferred option
US Blinken says returning to Iran nuclear deal is still the preferred option

US Blinken says returning to Iran nuclear deal is still the preferred option

198533   January 25, 2022 09:45   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

US Secretary of State Blinken

  • returning to Iran nuclear deal is still the preferred option
  • talks cannot be allowed to go on for too long

Blinken keeping hopes bubbling along for a return to the nuclear deal. As for talks dragging on, they already have!

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USD/CNY fix: 6.3418 vs estimate at 6.3386
USD/CNY fix: 6.3418 vs estimate at 6.3386

USD/CNY fix: 6.3418 vs estimate at 6.3386

198527   January 25, 2022 09:33   FXStreet   Market News  

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 6.3418 vs the last close of 6.3304 and the estimate at 6.3386.

About the fix

China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland.

The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled.

Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

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BoJ Gov Kuroda: Global commodity price rise is much bigger factor than weak yen in pushing up japan’s consumer inflation
BoJ Gov Kuroda: Global commodity price rise is much bigger factor than weak yen in pushing up japan’s consumer inflation

AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Challenges bear cross on upbeat Aussie Q4 inflation

AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Challenges bear cross on upbeat Aussie Q4 inflation

198524   January 25, 2022 09:17   FXStreet   Market News  

  • AUD/JPY extends the week-start rebound from late December lows.
  • Receding bearish bias of MACD joins firmer data to favor bulls.
  • Australia Q4 CPI, RBA Trimmed Mean CPI crossed forecasts and prior, NAB data came in softer for December.
  • Death cross keeps sellers hopeful, three-week-old resistance line adds to the upside filters.

AUD/JPY justifies strong Australia inflation data by refreshing intraday top around 81.80, currently up 0.25% intraday, during early Tuesday.

In doing so, the cross-currency pair stretches the previous day’s bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) level of December-January upside, around 80.90.

That said, Australia’s fourth quarter (Q4) Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more than 1.0% forecast and 0.8% QoQ to 1.3% while the YoY figures crossed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) SOMP projections to 3.5%, versus 3.2% expected and 3.0% prior. Further, the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI crossed 0.7% market consensus with 1.0% figures on QoQ while also rising past 2.4% YoY forecast to 2.6%.

Read: Breaking: Aussie CPI comes in hotter and lifts AUD over 26 pips off the bat

Other than the fundamentals and 61.8% Fibo, The corrective pullback also gains support from the receding bearish bias of the MACD.

Even so, a bear cross between the 50-SMA and 200-SMA keeps sellers hopeful until the quote stays below 82.45.

Also acting as an upside hurdle is a descending resistance line from January 05, near 82.70.

Alternatively, pullback moves may aim for the key Fibonacci level retest, near 80.90, a break of which will strengthen the bearish approach towards the 80.00 threshold. Following that, December’s low near 78.80 will be in focus.

AUD/JPY: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further recovery expected

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AUD/USD marked up a little after the stronger than expected core Australian inflation data

AUD/USD marked up a little after the stronger than expected core Australian inflation data

198522   January 25, 2022 08:56   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Inflation and business survey data were out at the same time:

Analysts in Australia have been moving towards forecasts of earlier rate hikes from the RBA but are still eyeing hikes in H2, not imminently. As I said in the CPI post I don’t see any trigger for a hike soon.

Back to the AUD, a touch higher on the data:

aud chart cpi 25 January 2022

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Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) came in at 2.6%, above forecasts (2.4%) in 4Q
Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) came in at 2.6%, above forecasts (2.4%) in 4Q

Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) came in at 2.6%, above forecasts (2.4%) in 4Q

198521   January 25, 2022 08:51   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

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USD/JPY fades bounce off five-week low around 114.00 despite firmer yields
USD/JPY fades bounce off five-week low around 114.00 despite firmer yields

USD/JPY fades bounce off five-week low around 114.00 despite firmer yields

198520   January 25, 2022 08:51   FXStreet   Market News  

  • USD/JPY retreats after staging a recovery from the lowest levels since late December.
  • Market sentiment remains sour amid pre-Fed caution, Russia-Ukraine tussles.
  • Japan eyes to put 34 of 47 prefectures under quasi-emergency due to Omicron.
  • US CB Consumer Confidence, risk catalysts eyed for fresh impulse, FOMC is the key.

USD/JPY portrays a failure to extend the previous day’s rebound near 114.00 as Tokyo opens for Tuesday. The yen pair bounced off a five-week low the previous day as risk-off mood propelled the US dollar. However, fears of widespread virus-linked quasi-emergency conditions in Japan triggered the risk barometer pair’s latest pullback.

That said, Japan’s surging covid cases push authorities to push more prefectures towards harder activity restrictions. The policymakers will decide on the same during Tuesday. “Japan will decide Tuesday to expand a COVID-19 quasi-state of emergency to 34 of the nation’s 47 prefectures with the addition of 18 more areas to stem the rapid spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus,” said Kyodo News in this regard.

Market sentiment turned sour on Monday as traders piled on more bets over the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish appearance during Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Escalating the war of words over the geopolitical tussles between Russia and Ukraine also underpinned the risk aversion at the start of the key week.

The US, Europe and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) push Russia towards a ceasefire amid reports that Moscow is up for a battle with Ukraine. As per the latest updates from the UK, leaders agreed that if Russia continues its intervention into Ukraine, allies must respond quickly, including through a package of sanctions.

Elsewhere, softer US Markit PMIs for January came in softer but Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI refreshed its four-year high on Monday.

That said, fears of supply chain disruptions and inflation woes were the major catalysts to propel the US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY). US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen accepted the same and praised Fed efforts, which in turn strengthened bullish bias over the FOMC.

Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields stay firmer around 1.77% while the US stock futures and Japan’s Nikkei 225 print mild gains at the latest.

Moving on, US CB Consumer Confidence for January, prior 115.8, will be crucial data for USD/JPY. However, major attention will be given to the risk catalysts.

Technical analysis

Unless staying beyond the previous resistance line from March 2021, around 112.80, USD/JPY buyers remain hopeful. However, a three-week-old resistance line near 114.45 restricts the pair’s short-term recovery.

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Australia National Australia Bank’s Business Conditions came in at 8, below expectations (12) in December
Australia National Australia Bank’s Business Conditions came in at 8, below expectations (12) in December

Australia National Australia Bank’s Business Conditions came in at 8, below expectations (12) in December

198519   January 25, 2022 08:49   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.




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Australia National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence below expectations (16) in December: Actual (-12)
Australia National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence below expectations (16) in December: Actual (-12)

Australia National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence below expectations (16) in December: Actual (-12)

198518   January 25, 2022 08:49   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.




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AUD/USD rises towards 0.7200 on strong Australia Q4 CPI
AUD/USD rises towards 0.7200 on strong Australia Q4 CPI

AUD/USD rises towards 0.7200 on strong Australia Q4 CPI

198517   January 25, 2022 08:45   FXStreet   Market News  

  • AUD/USD extends early Asian rebound from five-week low on firmer Australia inflation data.
  • Australia Q4 CPI, RBA Trimmed Mean CPI rose past forecasts, NAB data came in softer for December.
  • Risk-off mood adds to the upside filters amid pre-Fed woes, Russia-Ukraine tension.
  • US CB Consumer Confidence will decorate the calendar, all eyes on Wednesday’s FOMC.

AUD/USD pops 25 pips to 0.7175 as Australia Q4 inflation data came in stronger than expected during early Tuesday.

The Aussie pair initially consolidated the losses around the lowest levels since late December amid cautious optimism at the pacific major, mainly concerning South African covid variant Omicron.

That said, Australia’s fourth quarter (Q4) Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more than 1.0% forecast and 0.8% QoQ to 1.3% while the YoY figures crossed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) SOMP projections to 3.5%, versus 3.2% expected and 3.0% prior. Further, the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI crossed 0.7% market consensus with 1.0% figures on QoQ while also rising past 2.4% YoY forecast to 2.6%.

It’s worth noting that the National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Business Confidence and Business Conditions figures for December came in bleak as the former dropped to -12 versus 16 forecast whereas the latter eased to 8 from 12.

“We’ve written a lot about Australia’s upcoming CPI over the past week or two, so we don’t want to keep repeating ourselves. Suffice to say that the number will matter a lot. Most immediately for the RBA, which may need to acknowledge that a rate hike in 2022 is no longer completely out of the question. It could also have political implications, with the cost of living shaping up as a key issue for the upcoming Federal election,” said ANZ ahead of the key inflation data.

It’s worth noting that the recently easing covid cases in Australia join China’s latest monetary policy easing, as well as encouraging headlines from Evergrande to also favor the AUD/USD buyers.

However, fears of the Fed rate hike and a war of words relating to the Russia-Ukraine situations exert downside pressure on the market sentiment, as well as on the AUD/USD prices due to its risk barometer status.

While portraying the mood, the US 10-year Treasury yields stay firmer around 1.78% while the US stock futures and Australia’s ASX 200 print losses at the latest.

Looking forward, US CB Consumer Confidence for January, prior 115.8, will be crucial data for USD/JPY. However, major attention will be given to the risk catalysts.

Technical analysis

Two-month-old horizontal support near 0.7090-80 restricts short-term AUD/USD declines, which in turn joins the receding bearish bias of the MACD to favor the latest corrective pullback. However, the support-turned-resistance line from December 20, near 0.7170, followed by the 200-DMA level of 0.7200, challenges the Aussie pair’s further upside.

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